May Trevor Be The Bigger Prize?

It was the offseason before the 2013 Major League Baseball season was ready to kick off. The Twins were coming off of yet another 90 loss season, and this team appeared to be going nowhere fast. With poor pitching across the board, a reinvention of the organization was in need. That's when the roster shuffle came.

First, Denard Span was sent to the Washington Nationals for a top pitching prospect. Not a month later, Ben Revere was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for two pitchers in return. It was Nationals prospect, Alex Meyer, that was regarded as the top of the rotation arm that the Twins so desperately needed. The Phillies sent Vance Worley, a regressed rookie of the year candidate, and pitching prospect Trevor May to the Twins. With plenty of promise tied up in each arm, the Twins were willing to let the chips fall where they may.

Fast forward to today, and the narrative has all but played out. Vance Worley played just one season for the Twins (pitching to a 7.21 ERA across 48.2 innings pitched in 10 games) before being sent to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Meyer overpowered minor league opponents for two years despite struggling with an increasing walk issue. However, a disastrous start to 2015 pushed him to the bullpen in hopes to reclaim his past form. Then, there’s Trevor May.

In his first season on the farm with the Twins, May posted a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts at Double-A New Britain. While his 9.4 K/9 numbers were great, his 4.0 BB/9 ratio had the makings of similar scares Meyer brought with him. In 2014 at Rochester, May looked even better posting a 2.85 ERA across 18 starts with a 8.6 K/9, but the walk issue (3.6 BB/9) still remained.

May had shown the Twins enough, and to be frank the big league club didn’t have many quality options, to earn a cup of coffee in September 2014. His first 10 big league games saw him post a 7.88 ERA, and that 4.3 BB/9 reared its head at the major league level. As the calendar turned to 2015 however, May appeared to leave those issues behind.

In spring training, it was Trevor May that was in the thick of a heated battle for the 5^th and final rotation spot. Despite eventually losing out to the likes of Tommy Milone, May impressed far more often than not down in Florida. With the roster shuffling that would quickly take place, May found himself back on the big league roster in short order.

Early results this season were mixed for May. An ugly first start was followed by his first win in which he ceded just one run to what was expected to be a solid Indians team. Despite a short start and a clunker in Cleveland mixed in, May seemed to make progress each outing. The walk numbers were down significantly, and he was throwing better than his defense was willing to help him look.

It was his 10^th start however, and first of his career in Boston, that seemed to be the culmination of all the hard work put in. With Minnesota needing a win to avoid a three game losing streak, May put the team on his back. A seven inning, two-hit shutout, was capped off by striking out nine Red Sox batters, and not walking a single one. It seemed, all in the course of one night, Trevor May had arrived.

As it stands currently, May’s 4.45 ERA is nothing to brag about, but his 2.80 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests he’s been so much better. The biggest change for the Twins rookie however, is that he has all but abandoned his affinity to give up free bases. Striking out batters at a 7.9 K/9 clip (and leading the Twins with 50 K), May has walked just nine all season (a 1.4 BB/9 ratio). In reinventing himself, May has taken himself out of the discussion as the Twins 5^th starter, and pushed himself to be regarded as one of the best on the bump.

There’s little argument to be made that Alex Meyer has not turned out to be what the Twins had hoped at this point. He’s a 25 year old former top prospect that has now been pushed to the bullpen. The days of him being a top of the rotation guy may be over. As unfortunate as that may be, it is in Trevor that the Twins can find promise. Despite not being brought in with the hype of Meyer, May was a 4^th round pick on his own, and has begun to come into his own.

It isn’t all there yet for Trevor May, but there’s little doubt that he’s on the right path towards becoming a very solid pitcher. Although it may not have been the expected scenario, May is becoming the prized pitcher they believed they were getting the summer they traded their centerfielders away. It’s just the beginning, but it sure looks like a ride you won’t want to miss.

The Twins Outfield That's Yet To Come

Over the course of the past few weeks, I've had a handful of readers asking about the current construction of the Minnesota Twins outfield, and how it will change going forward. I would suppose Oswaldo Arcia's struggles as well as the introduction of the 2015 version of Aaron Hicks is at the root of these discussions. However, Minnesota remains in a place where the outfield could be turned into a relative strength in short order.

Going into the 2014 season, the configuration from left to right of Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter had nightmare written all over it. Minnesota was set to punt once again defensively in left (a la Josh Willingham), and go with the basement dwelling ceiling of Schafer in center. While Hunter's bat was expected to play, he's far from an asset defensively at this point in his career. To this point in the season, the defensive struggle in the outfield has been apparent, but not as noteworthy as expected. Right now, only Hunter remains of that current group, and that has proven for the better.

On the season Arcia has played in just 19 games. He is currently rehabbing from a DL stint and is looking to get back to the big leagues. His .276/.338/.379 slash line isn't horrid, but he's lacked the power and plate discipline many expected to show up this season. Arcia has been a name that plenty have wondered about trading, sending down, or have tied frustration to, but all of that appears premature.

I thought Arcia would lead the Twins in home runs going into the season. 30 long balls appeared to be a realistic mark, and he seemed to have the ability to make Target Field look very small. So far, injury has prevented that narrative from playing out, but a strong summer could still save face. There's no doubt the Twins should stick with him in left and get the Venezuelan at bats at DH as well. Going forward, he's a guy I think Minnesota should feel ok with manning left for them. If that's the Twins one defensive punt in the outfield, it's one I'm ok with.

In center, the Twins were fighting an uphill battle from the get go. Schafer was always going to be a poor option, and platooning him with a veteran 4th outfielder at best in Shane Robinson just screamed. Thankfully, Aaron Hicks took over in the middle of May. As expected, Hicks has been a much different player this time around and both he and the Twins are better for it.

Always regarded as a plus defender, it's been Hicks bat that has made the biggest improvement. Taking quality at bats from both sides of the plate, Hicks is slashing .250/.297/.317. The OBP mark is one that should be expected to continue to rise as he has always been a guy known to draw walks. His speed has played on the basepaths, already swiping four bags. With Byron Buxton in tow for the Twins, Hicks is going to have to move to right field. If he can continue to play at this level or above for the rest of the 2015 season, the Twins should be happy to showcase his arm there.

There's no doubt that Buxton is the future in centerfield for the Twins. As good as Hicks has been defensively, Buxton should and will be better. Blistering speed and ball tracking skills unparalleled, the Twins are in for a treat when their number one prospect takes over in center. It's tough to argue that Buxton has been slow out of the gates down in Double-A. He's hitting just .259 and has been scuffling of late. If he can get a hot streak going however, Minnesota could decide to bring him up in early August.

As the 2016 season kicks off, I'd argue the ideal construction for the Twins would be to go Arcia, Buxton, and Hicks from left to right. Carrying Eddie Rosario as the fourth outfielder makes a lot of sense, and his seasoning in 2015 would be beneficial to him swapping in and out for Hicks and Arcia when needed. At this point, it would appear Torii Hunter would be coming back for another year, and that could throw somewhat of a wrench into the advancement plans. Hunter may see more at bats at the DH spot next season, and the Twins defense would no doubt be the better for it.

A detriment at times in 2015, the 2016 Twins outfield should be looked upon with favor. Hicks still has plenty of value to this organization, and talk of moving on from a 24 year old Arcia would seem to be a mistake. The Twins should start to see the fruits of their labor sooner rather than later.

The Twins Climb Will Stall, And That's OK

The Minnesota Twins tenure as the best team in the American League lasted all of one night, and as fun as that was, it's a reminder as to what baseball is. With the Houston Astros winning with Minnesota being rained out early in the week, the Twins were knocked from the top spot. The climb to get there has featured 8-2 streaks, series dominance, and the unwillingness to lose at home. Over the course of 162 games, the landscape will change, and the Twins will remain just fine.

Still atop the AL Central as of this writing, the Twins own a 30-19 record, putting them a half game ahead of the Royals. After starting out 1-6 on the season, the expectation for the Twins to tumble towards projections seemed strong. Most oddsmakers in Las Vegas had Minnesota slated for somewhere between 69 and 74 wins, with the under looking favorably. In going 29-13 since that time frame, Minnesota has turned the baseball world on its head.

Now, as you've surely heard, regression should set in at some point. Mike Pelfrey is pitching above his head, Kyle Gibson is going stronger than expected, and the offense is hitting beach balls with runners in scoring position. This can all continue for a period of time (ask Danny Santana about his 2014 season), but at some point the numbers will start to even out. That isn't to suggest sabermetrics are the gold standard at play here, but that even the eye test will suggest Minnesota is outperforming expectations.

I have voiced often that regression is ok for this 2015 Twins team here at Off The Baggy. First and foremost, the organization is in a position to handle this sort of thing for the first time in a while. Tommy Milone is down on the farm, Ervin Santana will rejoin the fold, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano haven't surfaced, and the Twins have plenty of guys that can contribute. While all of those factors, or players, may end up helping to curve regression, it's actually the Twins that have stacked the deck in their favor.

At 0-0, experts suggested the Twins would have streaks going up and down that would eventually lead them to a win/loss record somewhere in the doldrums of Major League Baseball. Now at 30-19, they continue to suggest the same losing (albeit not to the same extent) should be expected. However, having played nearly one-third of the 2015 season, the Twins have afforded themselves some breathing room.

There's no doubt they will need to continue to play at a blistering pace to stay ahead in the AL Central, but continuing to play playoff caliber and interesting baseball throughout the summer is well within reach. Separated from a talented Tigers team by 3.5 games, and 6.5 from the 4th spot in the AL Central, Minnesota doesn't have to keep winning at the same clip. 8-2 stretches over ten game periods aren't going to remain sustainable all season, but this teams has proven more than capable of playing .500 baseball.

Should Minnesota continue to ride the hot streak for as long as they can, and curb the eventually regression, handling tough stretches at 4-6 or even 3-7 paces aren't going to be detrimental. Having dealt with adversity out of the gate, this club already knows they can rebound as well, as mentioned, they've got the deck stacked in their corner.

If Minnesota can play .500 baseball throughout the rest of the year, they would finish the season at 86-76, a mark likely good enough to have them in a Wild Card spot. Time will only tell if that comes to fruition, but it's a safe bet to suggest that regression aside, the Twins have already positioned themselves for a competitive summer. How things shake out remains to be seen, but because of early success, you aren't going to want to miss it.

Shortstop, A Cry For Better Days

Heading into spring training, and throughout much of it, there was talk that the Twins standout rookie Danny Santana could be challenged or even removed from the shortstop role due to the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. At the time, it was crazy talk, and it still remains in that context. The Twins absolutely needed to allow their surprising rookie to validate his performance, but now that fact is that he simply hasn't. Heading into the heat of the summer, Minnesota has a very important decision to make.

Looking at the baseball field as a whole, two positions can lay claim to a higher importance in the field than most; centerfield and shortstop. Both roles act as a field general of sorts and typically are manned by some of the best athletes on the team. Minnesota finds itself in a position where its shortstop ranks amongst the leagues worst in several defensive categories, and is offering little value elsewhere to boot.

After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014). On the defensive side of the ball, he's made 11 errors (just two in 34 games at SS in 2014), is worth -10 DRS (defensive runs saved), and owns a -5.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). All totaled, Santana is currently worth -0.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) after posting a 3.3 value a season ago.

You absolutely had to expect a certain level of regression to hit Santana, his 2014 was otherwordly in context. What he's doing into 2015 however isn't regression. To put it simply, he's fallen off of a cliff. At this point, the Twins are nearing a crossroads where they must make a decision, and there's really only two options to consider. The first comes from within.

Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins in 2014, making the leap from Single-A Fort Myers. Over the course of five games, he got eight plate appearances and collected a double and triple for his only two hits. This season in Double-A Chattanooga, he's continued his hot streak. The every day SS for the loaded farm team, Polanco owns a .323/.355/.435 slash line. He's hit four home runs, driven in 24 RBI, walked 10 times, and struck out in 30 at bats. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength (or lack thereof), and being a better fielder is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).

Minnesota could take a long look at a Polanco for Santana swap sometime in the near future, but it may not rectify all of the issues. There's reason to believe Polanco could be a better hitter at the big league level, but he too could cede too many runs for the pitching staff's liking. That leads us to option number two, going outside of the organization.

Looking at what the Twins will do with promotions in 2015 and beyond, there's no shortage of logjams. From players like Polanco and Max Kepler, to pitchers like Stephen Gonslaves and Chih-Wei Hu, the Twins have plenty of other prospects not named Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Knowing that they may not be able to advance all of them through the system in it's current state, it may be time to deal some assets for immediate help.

Defensively, shortstop is a position that the Twins need to be sound. You probably need to go back to 2001 Cristian Guzman for a time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position. In going for a splash, the Twins could target a player like Andrelton Simmons to fill their vacancy. Not the aged All-Star that Troy Tulowitzki is, and potentially not commanding the same return that the Cubs Starlin Castro may require, Minnesota may find a match.

Undoubtedly, I'm not one to suggest trade scenarios, it's just not something I'm well versed in. That being said, Minnesota could be presented with pursuing that scenario on their own should they deem Polanco not the immediate answer. No matter what happens, the thing that remains most clear is that Danny Santana is not the option to roll with currently.

As the summer draws on and this team jostles for position, it will be in how the next few weeks play out that determine how the Twins position themselves for the stretch run.

The Twins Are Great, But Can They Be Better?

The Minnesota Twins won 20 games in the month of May, a feat they accomplished for just the first time since June 1991. In doing so, they took over the lead in the AL Central division as well as laid claim to the best record in the American League. After four seasons of 90 losses, it's pretty easy to call this revelation a smashing success, but here's where beggars turn into choosers. Could the Twins actually be even better?

Right now, Minnesota still has Tim Stauffer, Eduardo Nunez, Chris Herrmann, and Shane Robinson on the 25 man roster. Each of those players are easily recognizable as being replacement level at best. With internal options looming, there's little doubt that their eventual removal should be a net positive.

Stauffer was a free agent flier that the Twins hoped to be a long-arm option out of the bullpen. His $2.2 million contract has been a virtual waste as he's pitched to an 8.03 ERA (and an even worse 8.69 FIP). A DL stint appeared to be the long awaited end for Stauffer, but the Twins instead brought him back and made him the 13th arm in the bullpen

Nunez made the Opening Day roster as somewhat of a de facto utility man. Despite Eduardo Escobar being a better option in virtually the same capacity, the Twins decided to bring Nunez along as well. Functioning in a very limited role for the Twins (playing in just 14 games), Nunez has slashed .316/.366/.526. Had Eddie Rosario been considered as a fourth outfield option in spring training, Nunez could have found himself the odd man out.

Looking at Herrmann, the Twins were somewhat forced into the situation. What makes it more curious is that he still remains on the 25 man roster. After Josmil Pinto dealt with concussion like symptoms in spring training, Herrmann grabbed onto the backup role. Hitting just .171/.227/.317 and spelling starter Kurt Suzuki in just 15 games, calling Herrmann a disappointment would be a massive understatement

Rounding out the group, Shane Robinson was brought in on a no-risk free agent deal. With Minnesota needing a fourth outfielder, the veteran profiled as the ideal candidate. Being paired with Jordan Schafer from the get go was an odd decision, but Robinson has done everything asked of him. Despite hitting just .267/.313/.293, Robinson has been a defensive asset to an outfield with limited options in that category. Should the Twins move on from him, it will be indicative of their developed depth more than anything.

Noting that the Twins have some black holes on their roster, there's no doubt replacements would signify an opportunity for improvement. It would be hard to argue that pitchers such as Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, Lester Oliveros, or even a Jake Reed type wouldn't be more beneficial than Stauffer. Removing a run-allowing pitcher in the pen is always an area to focus on. Minnesota actually has the opportunity to gain through loss in two situations if they were to take a serious look at Brian Duensing's viability for their club.

Nunez and Herrmann were always going to be replaceable from the get go. The former is an interesting role to replace because he doesn't need to get into games. Nunez isn't a developmental product at this point in his career and you know what you have with him. Herrmann on the other hand is a mere placeholder. Despite a recent cold stretch, Pinto has five home runs and 22 RBI in Triple-A and he's throwing out baserunners at a 26% clip. Minnesota no doubt should be looking to upgrade their backup catcher sooner rather than later.

Looking at the situation as a whole, the Twins have to be excited about what they have done, and who they have done it with. Knowing that the roster isn't even in an optimal condition, the arrow should be pointing upwards. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will need to get creative in the coming months, but they have plenty of pieces to form an elaborate puzzle.

The Twins Decline Isn't Coming

Yes, I'm more than aware that the title is a significant ringing endorsement of a team that has lost 90 games for each of the past four seasons. I'm also more than well aware that it's still May and the 2015 Major League Baseball season remains in its infancy. I'm probably more well aware than most that regression is staring the Twins right in the face. The good thing is that I'm here to tell you there's no proverbial cliff.

To start the season, the Twins kicked off a road trip that saw them go a combined 1-6, and all of those games were played against divisional foes. Since however, the team has rattled off victories at a 25-12 clip and amongst the hottest teams in all of baseball. Obviously in baseball things even out, and hot teams can't ride a streak forever, but that too doesn't mean a decline is coming.

Going into the season, if I tried to pitch that the Twins were going to win 82 games, I probably would have been considered a significant homer. While I noted that was probably somewhere near their ceiling, I had the Twins at 79 wins back in March. Following the Ervin Santana news, I suggested 74 wins might be a more logical mark. Now on pace to surpass 90 wins, it's fair to suggest that the projections may have been altered, but that a certain decline shouldn't be considered.

I have a hard time believing this Twins team will win 90 games, there's far too many players toying with regression. That being said, baseball cannot be broken into parts and then analyzed as a whole to prove a point. With the suggestion that .500 baseball would be a welcomed contribution for the Twins, reaching that point following game 162 wouldn't signify anything but a step in the right direction. For a team that has experienced so much losing, turning things around prior to the influx of young talent that is coming would be a very exciting situation.

There's no doubt that continuing to win seven out of every ten games throughout the rest of the season is going to be a difficult pace to uphold. On the flip side, this isn't the same Twins team of old. Not only was the roster constructed to be competitive from the get go, but Samuel Deduno, Kris Johnson, and Yohan Pino are no longer looming for spot starts. Minnesota has developed quality options in the minor leagues with some real upside, and they can be counted on to produce when called upon.

While it's been a great first couple of months for the Twins, it should be equally hard to suggest that they both continue this pace as well as see a decline from where expectations lie. Of course regression will set in at some point, but whether the Twins won 50 of their first 80, or put together an insane run to close out the year, taking significant steps forward was the goal for 2015. This team is well on its way, and the longer Paul Molitor can hold off the law of averages, the more excitement Twins Territory should continue to expect.

The Twins Rotation And Their Options

Entering the 2015 Major League Baseball season, I suggested that the Twins may finally be able to considering pitching a relative strength. While that may have been a bit of a reach, there's no doubt that the 2015 Twins can consider themselves owners of pitching depth. Now with the season heading into the summer, managing that depth will be the key to unlocking continued sustainability in the win column for Minnesota.

As of this writing, the Twins own the 10th best team ERA in the American League (4.00). Minnesota has saved 17 games as a team (with Major League Baseball being led in the category by Glen Perkins with 16). The team's four shutouts are tied for second best in the American League. On the flip side, the Twins .273 batting average against is dead last in the American League and with 253 strikeouts, they are also dead last (trailing Kansas City who is second to last by 32 K). So, with a mirage of sorts going in their favor, and detriment mounting, what happens next?

The short answer is, regression.

Let's take a look at the Twins rotation and their numbers as things currently stand:

• Phil Hughes- 3-4 4.50 ERA 4.44 FIP 1.293 WHIP 0.9 BB/9 5.9 K/9
• Ricky Nolasco- 5-1 5.12 ERA 2.89 FIP 1.611 WHIP 2.8 BB/9 7.7 K/9
• Kyle Gibson- 4-3 2.72 ERA 4.23 FIP 1.207 WHIP 2.7 BB/9 4.3 K/9
• Mike Pelfrey 3-1 3.00 ERA 4.50 FIP 1.311 WHIP 3.0 BB/9 4.4 K/9
• Trevor May 3-3 4.95 ERA 3.01 FIP 1.374 WHIP 1.6 BB/9 7.4 K/9

Touching on each pitcher, there's plenty to dissect here. Most notable, the success of Gibson and Pelfrey should be cautioned. Both own FIP (fielding independent pitching) marks above 4.00. Being groundball pitchers, they have benefited from the outfield remaining out of the picture in most of their starts. Despite Aaron Hicks making a significant difference for the Twins outfield, it wasn't pretty in the early going. Both Pelfrey and Gibson could see more issues as the continue to draw significant contact with low strikeout rates as well.

Phil Hughes has taken a step backwards and moved more towards his career numbers. His strikeouts are down, but the most notable issue he has faced this season is the longball. Hughes has given up 10 home runs in just nine games after giving up 16 in 32 last season. There's little reason to suggest that Trevor May hasn't taken steps forward, and despite a lackluster WHIP, he may be trending in the best direction of the bunch.

Rounding out the group, Nolasco has actually been impressive since coming off of the DL. He's 5-0 in his last five starts, and owns a 3.77 ERA. The FIP number suggests he's been burned by lackluster defense to a certain extent, but he's also danced around danger giving up a career high 11.7 H/9 and allowing a .304 batting average against in his last five starts.

All of this adds up to a group that, as a whole, has exceeded expectations, but probably regresses over the course of the season. Now, each team goes through periods where statistics can't account for baseball simply playing in your favor, and regression isn't likely to come all at once. The Twins shouldn't be counting on all five guys to falter, but having backup plans for the ones that do would seem to be a good situation.

To that notion, Minnesota can smile and simply look at their organization as a whole. In Rochester, Taylor Rogers and Pat Dean have looked good over their first handful of starts (3.44 ERA and 2.47 ERA respectively) as both have spent the entirety of the season there. Tommy Milone has made four starts for the Red Wings since his demotion and has compiled a 0.28 ERA while allowing just one earned run in 31.2 IP while striking out 41 batters. Although probably not a candidate to join the Twins this season, Tyler Duffey was also recently promoted to Triple-A after opening the season as the Double-A Opening Day pitcher. On the season Duffey owns a 2.56 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, and 9.1 K/9 ratio.

Generally teams would like to see pitchers refine themselves at the Triple-A level prior to heading to the big leagues, but it's hard to overlook what Jose Berrios has done in Chattanooga. In nine starts, Berrios owns a 2.89 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and just a 2.7 BB/9 ratio. He's one of the organizations top prospects, and he's knocking on the door, hard.

All of the above options have been presented without even touching on the fact that de facto number two starter Ervin Santana will be back in July. On top of Santana, the Twins are still likely hoping that Alex Meyer shows semblance of starting ability. After a recent move to the bullpen in hopes of controlling command issues, he could be pushed into the rotation down the stretch as well.

Over the course of the summer, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor are going to have plenty of decisions to make. There's no doubt they should ride the current rotation construction until the results deem otherwise, but for the first time in a while, they shouldn't be fearing the bottom falling out. A testament to patience, the Twins are built for a certain level of sustainability.