A Series To Forget, And AL Central Foes Looming

The Minnesota Twins wrapped up their first series of the 2015 Major League Baseball season, and unfortunately they left Detroit without a win. Opening up against the defending AL Central Division champions was a tall task, but the level of futility the Twins displayed was also unexpected. Hoping to turn things around in short order, the Twins will have to be much better than they have been.

Over the course of three games, the Twins were outscored by a tally of 22-1. Mustering only 14 hits, while the Tigers were able to total 27, the Twins found themselves without a runner on third base until the 7th inning of the third game. Minnesota sent 10 pitchers to the mound over the course of three games, and only four of them were able to keep a 0.00 ERA. Of those four (Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, and J.R. Graham), only Graham pitched more than one innings (2.1). Of the 24 innings pitched by the Twins, only 12.2 innings were pitched by starters. Really, it all boils down to one of the worst opening series possible.

So, on a positive note, the only way to go is up. Today, Minnesota travels to Chicago to take on the White Sox. Chicago also was swept (by the Kansas City Royals), and is looking for their first win of the season. Chris Sale will return to the active roster over the weekend, and is scheduled to take on the Twins during the series finale. Currently, the pitching matchups look as follows:

• Game 1 (Friday 4/10): Tommy Milone vs Hector Noesi
• Game 2 (Saturday 4/11): Mike Pelfrey vs Jeff Samardzija
• Game 3 (SUnday 4/12): Phil Hughes vs Chris Sale

No matter how you cut it, that breaks down to a pretty daunting setup for the Twins. While Milone has a decent shot at out-pitching Noesi in the opener, there's little doubt that the Twins will send the inferior starter to the mound in each of the following contests. Looking to get back into the thick of the AL Central race from the get go, Minnesota will need to turn in a solid series this weekend.

As noted prior to the season kicking off, the Twins could find themselves behind the eight ball early in the year. After facing Detroit and Chicago for their first two series of the season, the Twins will play five of their next six series against AL Central division opponents. By the end of April, separation on one end of the spectrum or the other could be in full swing.

Yesterday I talked about misplaced concerns for the Twins, and while the offense will no doubt come around, Minnesota can't wait forever. With plenty of other concerns, the Twins will need to right the ship in short order. It begins today in Chicago.

Misplaced Concern Doesn't Highlight True Issues

Minnesota Twins center fielder Jordan Schafer misplays the triple hit by Detroit Tigers' Yoenis Cespedes during the sixth inning of an opening day baseball game in Detroit, Monday, April 6, 2015. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins completed their second game of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. While they are now 0-2, after 1/81 of the season, it appears as if a large contingent of the fan base is already waving the white flag. Considering the stretch that is the Major League Baseball season, two games is representative of a very small sample size. In football, it may equate to one drive, or basketball, a possession. With that notion, joining the knuckle-dragging contingent suggesting doom seems premature. That being said, there are some definite concerns in the early going, it just appears they are misplaced.

Much has been made about the offensive drought the Twins are currently going through. In 18 innings this season, they have yet to score a run, and even worse, have not reached third base. Dating back to 2014, it's been 24 innings (all against these Detroit Tigers) in which the Twins have failed to cross the plate. Again, while problematic, offensive issues aren't where concern should lie for this club. After all, a season ago virtually the same lineup was 7th in the majors when it came to scoring runs. However, yesterday's game highlighted some significant problem areas for the Twins.

First and foremost, Ricky Nolasco. I still remain of the belief that Nolasco will make good on at least of portion of what was the largest Twins free agent contract handed out at the time. The unfortunate reality is that it should have been Phil Hughes, and not Nolasco, that was the priority in the first place last year. Nolasco was a relatively average pitcher for the Marlins and that was in the National League. Expecting him to be a top of the rotation guy in the American League also seemed to be a longshot, and it's biting the Twins hard now. Today, Nolasco was sent back to Minnesota for an MRI. After pitching through injury last season and doing more damage than good, it's no doubt a positive thing that he's getting it figured out early in the process. While even a healthy Nolasco is an unproven commodity, a hurt one is not a good thing at all. The Twins are in a position to handle a rotation in flux with names like Alex Meyer and Trevor May, but there's no doubt a sense of concern with an injury out of the gate.

Moving on from the starting pitching and to the bullpen, the Twins weakness was already exposed. As Brandon Warne noted on this week's episode of Twins Tuesday, the bullpen is neither good nor interesting. Boasting a handful of journeyman types with low velocities and even lower ceilings, bullpen pitching is going to be an issue for the Twins until they start to call up some of the kids. Through 18 innings of baseball, the Twins have gone to the bullpen for four different pitchers, and only one has yet to give up a run. That pitcher is J.R. Graham, who prior to this season, hadn't pitched above the Double-A level. Of the 16 innings the Twins have pitched (the Tigers haven't needed to bat in the 9th yet), seven of the innings have been worked by bullpen pitchers. At nearly a 50% rate, an already overmatched bullpen is set to be overworked as well.

Rounding out the issues the Twins have faced in the early going is one that was highlighted coming into the season, outfield defense. Although during the first game, issues weren't as prevalent as game two, the uncertainty has reared it's head. Yesterday's game featured multiple misplayed balls by centerfielder Jordan Schafer (one of which he simply fell over trying to field), an error (though it wasn't recorded as such) by Torii Hunter, and a circus experiment on a catch made by Oswaldo Arcia. The corner outfielders are no doubt there because of their bats (and to be fair, Hunter did make a nice catch against the wall). In center however, Schafer was somehow viewed as a better option than Aaron Hicks of Eddie Rosario. What it all amounts to is that Paul Molitor will be faced with some early decisions.

Three games in, Eduardo Escobar is making his first start in left field. Arcia has struggled at the plate, looking overmatched in the early going. Schafer is being run out there again today and Hunter is no doubt here to stay. As Schafer and Shane Robinson continue to provide little value, the Twins will need to hope a quick start by Hicks or Rosario forces their hand. Getting less than ideal starting pitching is an issue, and compounding it by fielding a less than talented outfield only makes matters worse.

While Minnesota is only two games into the season, there are some concerning trends that need to reverse themselves. Reaching third base and scoring runs are not reasons to panic in the slightest, but the above may prove to be costly unless the new manager does something about the bandaid that is no doubt peeling off.

Watch Out For The Lookouts

The Minnesota Twins have started their 2015 Major League Baseball season already, and they did so with a tough luck loss to David Price. While the big league club is starting to trend in an upwards direction, there's no doubting that it's going to be another year with some lumps being taken. However, down in Chattanooga, Tennessee, there's a club ready to make waves.

Minnesota's newest affiliate, the Chattanooga Lookouts are responsible for the Double-A rung of the farm system. Managed by Doug Mientkiewicz, the Lookouts may be one of the most intriguing teams constructed in all of baseball.

Recently, the club released their Opening Day roster. Starting pitchers include names like Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffery, and Alex Wimmers. Out of the bullpen, the Lookouts have fireballers like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and Zack Jones. There's no doubt pitching is going to be an asset, but it's the offensive positional players that could set the game on fire. A roster that includes Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Levi Michael, Jorge Polanco, Stuart Turner, Travis Harrison, Max Kepler, and Adam Brett Walker is no doubt going to be exciting. With much of this club making up the Fort Myers Miracle Florida State League champions a season ago, expectations are incredibly high.

Mientkiewicz will have plenty of assets at his disposal, and here is how his lineup could potentially shake out:

Possible Opening Day lineup for Chattanooga? Buxton 8, Polanco 6, Sano 5, Kepler DH, Walker 9, Hicks 3, Harrison 7, Turner 2, Michael 4.
— Seth Stohs (@SethTweets) April 8, 2015

What it all adds up to is some must watch baseball. Although the Twins may stumble throughout the season, it will be in Double-A that the groundwork is laid for the Twins future. Despite being upset about losing out on the Twins managerial role, and having no problem voicing it, Mientkiewicz may have an even more important role. Mentoring these young prospects and pushing their development forward is what the organization is currently banking on.

Following up an impressive run in the Florida State League a year ago is going to be no easy task. That being said, there's no doubt that this Lookouts roster should strike fear into any opposing team's dugout. Understanding that the Twins are going to be shuffling the roster throughout the season, it is from the reaches of Double-A that plenty of callups could come.

Thus far, Terry Ryan has suggested that top tier prospects like Buxton and Sano may not need a stop in Triple-A Rochester. With more journeymen minor leaguers filling out the highest level, it may be in Double-A that they face their stiffest competition. If Dougie Baseball can get his Lookouts off to a good start, there's no telling how soon we could see some of them at the big league level.

No matter what happens with the Twins, you can bet the baseball world is taking notice of the Chattanooga Lookouts.

Ricky Nolasco Begins His Redemption

Today the Minnesota Twins take the field at Comerica Park for their second game of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. After dropping the first contest at the hands of David Price, the Twins will go up against Anibal Sanchez in game two. On the mound for the good guys in Ricky Nolasco, who will set out to start his 2015 of redemption.

After signing the richest free agent contract (at the time) in Minnesota Twins history, 2014 became a disaster for the former Marlins pitcher. Pitching through injury much of the season, he compiled a 5.38 ERA across 27 starts while striking out a career low 6.5 K/9. A dependable 200 inning pitcher, Nolasco threw just 159 innings for the Twins a year ago, and very few of them were quality.

Today, as he takes the mound in Detroit, Nolasco will be looking to begin what he hopes to be a turnaround year. At 32 years old and with nine big league seasons under his belt, the understanding of what Nolasco is as a pitcher should be pretty well documented. Not a high volume strikeout guy, Nolasco is capable of missing a few bats, and he can keep you competitive. An ERA somewhere in the high three to low four range should also be expected. While none of that rings spectacular, it is all a massive step forward from where he was at a season ago.

In 2014, Nolasco posted his highest FIP (fielding independent pitching) since his debut in the major leagues at 4.30. Considering a lackluster Twins defense behind him, that only aided to balloon his ERA over 5.00. The long ball was also an issue for Nolasco in 2014. Having not given up 20 or more home runs since 2011, Nolasco allowed 22 home runs to opposing batters a season ago. While struggling to strike batters out, allowing runs in bunches was only going to spell disaster for the California native.

This season, Nolasco should be expected to turn the page, if for no other reason than his health. After being brought in by the Twins, much was made of the signing. The club made Nolasco out to be a staff ace and an incredible innings eater. With the number attached to his contract, there was no doubt a considerable amount of pressure to fulfill those definitions. Never capable of being a true ace, Nolasco was in an uphill battle before he even got started. Combining that notion with trying to eat innings while at less than 100%, disaster quickly became the reality.

With an offseason to heal under his belt, and the certainty of where he will play this year, Nolasco enters the 2015 season in a different frame of mind. In 22.2 innings pitched this spring, Nolasco owned a 3.97 ERA. His five home runs surrendered down in Florida led the team, and again could be a cause for concern this season. He did however strike out batters at a higher clip than a season ago, and will need to miss more bats if he is going to be successful this year.

At the end of the day, today sets in motion Nolasco's 2015 season, but hardly defines it. Regardless of the outcome of this one start, Nolasco will need to build early confidence and push forward throughout the year. A ten hit, five run outing against the White Sox was how 2014 began, and is not what Nolasco wants today. No matter what happens however, Nolasco will need to focus on keeping a short memory, and pushing himself back to the pitcher he built himself off of being.

Safe To Prove Costly For Twins?

The 2015 Major League Baseball season is just one day old. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins find themselves with only a tally in the loss column to this point. More unfortunately is that observations from one game have cause knuckle-dragging fans to already deem the 2015 season a failure. Whether because of anger that four years of losing causes, or the disappointment that still looming prospects has provided, a vast contingent isn't pleased. While those aren't viable reasons for angst at this point (and frankly lack even a decent sense of comprehension), the Twins safe decision making was on display yesterday, and should be plenty scrutinized in the immediate future.

Against the Tigers, the Twins sent out what can be considered their top lineup. With Phil Hughes on the mound, at no other point (outside of replication) will the Twins 25 man roster be better represented than it was yesterday. Forget the fact that they were facing Cy Young level pitching in the form of David Price, there's no denying we might have seen and heard the first glimpses of concern.

Starting in centerfield yesterday was Jordan Schafer. A protoypical fourth outfielder, generally utilized for his speed, the Twins have given the offed Atlanta Brave the keys to the outfield. In turn, on at least two occasions, defensive missplays cost the Twins. Allowing a run while stumbling late in the game, the Twins saw the deficit increase further than it should have due to their own doing. As a secondary option, manager Paul Molitor chose to bring journeyman Shane Robinson north along with Schafer. Employing a two man (remember it's not a platoon) centerfield, the Twins have gone with options that are definitely not starters, and potential questionable roster inclusions.

When the bullpen entered the game yesterday, it was by way of Double-A Rule 5 Draft Pick, J.R. Graham. The hard thrower immediately worked himself into trouble, and then showed the resolve to get himself out of it unscathed. While it worked out in the team's favor this time, there's no doubt that Graham's shaky first inning doesn't bode well for the future. Considering that Molitor has said he plans to use some combination of Graham and Duensing in a 7th inning role, disaster could be looming for Minnesota.

Despite not factoring into the action yesterday, Mike Pelfrey was also removed from his bullpen role in favor of Aaron Thompson. Following the loss of suspended starter Ervin Santana, Pelfrey was added back into the rotation. Despite a less than promising track record, the Twins decided to go with what was comfortable, rather than what may push them forward.

That point gets us to the elephant the Twins see sitting at the end of their bench. Each and every roster move made this season has signified a stagnant style of thinking. Knowing this team isn't necessarily built to compete (despite what Terry Ryan has stated publicly), the ceiling has been purposely lowered from within. With options in house that could potentially stretch the ceiling, push the organization forward, and enhance development as a whole, the Twins have turned an opposite direction.

It's fair to suggest that promotion of youth for the sake of doing so doesn't make sense. There is no reason to sacrifice potential ability because of immediate desire, but what the Twins have put in place leans towards the other end of the spectrum. Names like Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Pelfrey, and well really the whole bullpen sans Glen Perkins, suggest a lack of faith in organizational advancement. Imagine if the Twins had instead included Hicks, Rosario, May, Meyer, or Tonkin? What if they went out and replaced their bench bat with a name like Dayan Viciedo? What if they increased their own ceiling by allowing for the floor to be lowered because the upside was substantially greater?

The premise is simple, knowing you aren't built to be amongst the elite, transitioning towards a future gain strategy would seem to make a lot of sense. While Pelfrey or Schafer may not make the mistakes a Meyer or Rosario will, they also represent a muted level of talent. Outside of finishing first, the positioning is relatively irrelevant, and the Twins have sent out a roster that fails to maximize upon this concept.

At the end of the day, most of the "safe" options for the Twins are immediately replaceable. When the bullpen falls, or Pelfrey blows up, or the outfield crumbles, the Twins can turn over the keys. The question becomes, why not do some of that from the beginning in hopes of advancement, rather than after issues in response to failure?

Phil Hughes Looking Up In 2015

Minnesota Twins' Phil Hughes warms up with a teammate at the start of a morning workout at baseball spring training in Fort Myers Fla., Tuesday Feb. 24, 2015. (Associated Press)

Today the Minnesota Twins kick off their 2015 Major League Baseball schedule against the Detroit Tigers. Taking the mound for the Twins is Phil Hughes. After coming over from the New York Yankees a season ago, he went on to set a major league record for strikeout to walk ratio. As impressive as he was a year ago however, the ceiling should be even higher.

Last season, Hughes ended his season with a 3.52 ERA. While there were points in which he looked like a Cy Young candidate, there were also periods of uncertainty. It was not until his fourth start of the season that Hughes pitched six full innings, and that also marked the first time he gave up less than four earned runs (three). Hughes seemed to figure things out on an April 26 start against the Tigers. Going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, he recorded his best start as a member of the Twins.

Through May and into June, Hughes was virtually unhittable. His 1.74 ERA over six starts from May 4 through June 1 was incredibly impressive. From there however, the Twins say some unexpected regression. Six times through prior to the month of August, Hughes allowed more than five earned runs. While the Twins were capable of scoring, they found themselves out of it more often than not. Once August hit, Hughes turned around his season once again. A 2.38 ERA from August 5th through the end of the year capped 2014 on a positive note. At the end of 162 however, you couldn't help but wonder what could have been.

As 2015 kicks off, Hughes has some significant room for improvement. While the walks don't necessarily need to be as limited as they were a season ago, Hughes still has room to improve. His 8.0 K/9 was the highest mark since 2009, and was something the Twins definitely found benefit from. Whether that mark increases or not, Hughes biggest benefit needs to come through his defense. In 2014, the former Yankee pitcher owned a 2.65 FIP (fielding independent pitching). With his ERA nearly a full run higher, there's no doubt he was let down behind him. This season there has been plenty made about how bad the Twins outfield defense may be, but statistics may not show everything.

Last year, Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia handled the corner outfield roles. This season, Arcia will be paired with Torii Hunter, as they utilize Jordan Schafer in center. While the metrics suggest the Twins could have one of the worst outfields in the majors, it would also seem that they have taken a step forward over last season. Arcia is not a good fielder by any stretch, but the removal of the distractions in right field should only benefit him. While Hunter isn't young anymore, he was winning Gold Gloves while being below average by defensive metrics as well. Schafer isn't an ideal centerfielder, but is serviceable by most standards. What it all adds up to should be enough to help Hughes help himself.

On top of a defensive boost, there's no doubt that Target Field also provides opportunity for Hughes. The success he saw a season ago was not unexpected, and made the signing one of the best from the get go. Getting away from Yankee Stadium's poor dimensions, Hughes should have only been expected to get better. What comes as a surprise however is that he was actually more dominant on the road. Despite Target Field being an asset to pitchers, Hughes struggled more in his home park. If he can maximize the opportunity at home this season, he should benefit there as well.

Kicking off the season with a tough test against David Price and a good Tigers lineup, Hughes will want to start things on a good note. No matter how today's outcome plays out however, understand that Hughes should be expected to be even better in 2015.

Ervin Santana And His Wrench

In this Tuesday March 3, 2015 file photo, Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Ervin Santana (54) throws batting practice at baseball spring training in Fort Myers, Fla. (Photo by The Associated Press)

Friday afternoon, just days away from the Twins heading to Detroit to take on the Tigers and open the 2015 Major League Baseball season, free agent pitcher Ervin Santana was popped with an 80 game suspension. He was caught for using an oral steroid, Stanozolol. With the news, the Twins immediately have a different outlook for not only their rotation, but the upcoming season as a whole.

Twins pitcher Ervin Santana has received an 80-game suspension without pay after testing positive for Stanozolol.
— MLB Communications (@MLB_PR) April 3, 2015

A situation such as the one that the Twins have been put in due to the poor decision making of Santana has somewhat of a ripple effect. There are quite a few factors at play here, and they add up to what should make for an interesting summer. First, Santana himself. His press release following the news toed a similar song and dance. He suggested that he had no idea how he ingested an oral steroid, and the he "needs to be more careful as to what he consumes in his home country." Of course that's the storyline, however thinly veiled it is. At this point, how and why don't matter. He's been paid, he's a part of the organization going forward, but the Twins will be without his services for the next 80 games.

That leads us to his replacement, and there may be more reason for frustration here than any other. Not minutes after the news regarding Santana broke, Paul Molitor announced that it would be Mike Pelfrey replacing him in the starting rotation. Earlier in the week, Pelfrey was "demoted" to the bullpen after the club announced that he wound up finishing third out of three when it came to the fifth starter competition. Both Tommy Milone and Trevor May were given one last prove it start, while the club decided that Pelfrey was not a viable option. A temper tantrum ensued, which then turned more cordial as Pelfrey realized the writing was on the wall. Now, whether a by-product of timing or indecision, the Twins have contradicted their initial decision and skip over May for the sake of Pelfrey.

Ryan said Pelfrey obvious choice to replace Santana because he outpitched Trevor May et al in camp #MNTwins
— Brian Murphy (@murphPPress) April 3, 2015

With the decision, the unfortunate reality is not that Pelfrey is now a starter for the Twins. What happened however is Minnesota organizationally contradicted a decision they made just a week earlier. Suggesting that it was May, not Pelfrey who gave them a better chance to win, the move is a puzzling one. In fairness, Pelfrey was strong this spring, and looked more than capable. He's battled back from injury and looks healthy for the first time in years. With the upside of an average at best pitcher however, the Twins once again balk on a higher ceiling and go against what they had seemingly decided.

From an overall pitching standpoint, the loss of Santana may actually provide long-term value. Although it is Pelfrey who gets the first crack, there are no two fluid rotation spots if pitchers should falter. Both Milone and Pelfrey become replaceable in the right circumstances. For the Twins, this means that both May and Alex Meyer could get looks sooner than initially anticipated. An 80 game suspension is virtually half of the season, and while I expected both prospects to be in the majors prior to that time, now it would seem certain. The development gained by having forced the Twins to accelerate them, should prove vital for both players advancement going forward.

Looking at the team as a whole, Santana's loss probably doesn't hurt the bottom line as much as perceived. As I noted in an earlier post, despite the strong spring, there was plenty of reason for skepticism in 2015. Now without his services for half of the season, the greatest impact will likely be felt on the top end. I have had the Twins winning 79 games all offseason, and I'm going to stick with that number. Where the deficiency may be felt is in the club trying to elevate past that mark. If the Twins upside was surprising some and pushing for a wild card spot, they would need to win somewhere near 85 games. Considering the roster shuffle, that may now be a tall task. This club is still markedly better than a season ago, and I believe they remain out of the final spot in the AL Central.

At the end of the day, Minnesota has just one spring training contest left before the end of the season. Losing a star offseason acquisition is by no means ideal, but it still doesn't launch the Twins into the ability level they have been in the previous four seasons. The shuffle should push for those trades from within to come a little sooner, and the Twins will no doubt be getting a good pitcher back on July 4. A poor decision, compounded by poor timing could spell disaster, but the Twins have some options.