On August 19, the Twins were averaging 4.67 runs per game (good enough for 17th in MLB). Fast forward to today, and Minnesota is 4th in baseball averaging 5.08 runs per game. In the 35 games since August 19, they've scored double-digit runs on 10 different occasions. In the month of September alone, despite being just two games over .500, they've posted a +41 run differential. In other words, the Twins have been ambushing opposing pitchers for over a month now.
When in the lineup, Miguel Sano generally he's batted 3rd or 4th. Since he's been out, that role has been given to a group consisting of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, and Eddie Rosario. While none of those players are the home run threat that Sano is, they've each shouldered the load as an integral run producing fixture for the Twins.
Sano's season will end with 111 games played. He has a .267/.365/.870 slash line. A three true outcomes player, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 60.6% of his plate appearances. While the home run numbers increased marginally from 2016, his strikeout rate has jumped off the page from his 80 game debut in 2015. If we're looking for something to point to as reason for the Twins additional run production, that could be it.
To date, Sano owns a 35.8% strikeout rate. The guys who've filled in for him own totals of 29.2% (Buxton), 14.6% (Polanco), 19.5% (Escobar), and 17.8% (Rosario). Even the highest mark of the group is more than a 5% decrease from where Sano was at, and it all points towards more balls being put in play. Despite not having the same power numbers, run production has been aided by contact rates that surpass Sano's.
Again, none of this is to suggest the Twins are better off without Sano in their lineup. While the Minnesota third basemen has been better this year than in 2016, trending more towards his 2015 debut would be ideal. In 80 games back in 2015, Sano drew 53 walks while striking out just 119 times. In 2017, he needed 111 games to draw 54 walks, but struck out 170 times. His contact rate is actually up (62.4%) from 2015 (60.9%), but the swinging strike rate has jumped to a career worst 18.1%.
Going into the postseason, it's probably not realistic to expect any sort of a contribution from the slugger. Had his leg injury healed to the point of him being able to take at bats, a pinch hit scenario could be interesting, and pose a problem for opposing pitchers. As things stand however, he'll be unavailable, and the Twins will continue to turn to a group of non-traditional middle-of-the-order hitters.
It shouldn't be overlooked that the fill-ins have flashed power of their own. Rosario may hit 30 homers, Escobar has 20, Buxton is at 16, and Polanco has added 12 of his own. Instead of being power, a free base, or nothing however, the group has made opposing pitchers attack the heart of the Twins lineup differently. Over the past month, it's worked better than anyone could've imagined, and Minnesota is going to have a postseason berth to show for it.
When Paul Molitor takes this group to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, he won't have his club's version of Miguel Sano in the lineup. That being said, if a New York pitcher thinks they're getting a break with the Minnesota 3-4-5 trio, they'll be sadly mistaken.
