In 2017, the early narrative for the Minnesota Twins was again the offensive struggles for Byron Buxton. The uber prospect had slumped out of the gate, and that's putting things nicely. Through May, he was hitting just .201, and a June slump bottomed him out at .195 as of July 3rd. Then things changed, and they've only gotten better since. While Buxton has grown at the plate, it also appears he's able to command it as well.
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| Byron Buxton has gone from missing down the heart, to forcing pitchers to live on the edges. |
Early in the season, Buxton struggled with both pitch recognition, and contact rates. He seemed to be guessing often, while swinging through offerings at an alarming rate. Through July 3, the Minnesota centerfielder had tallied 156 swinging strikes in 1,027 opportunities (15.19%). Since that date, there's been just 78 swinging strikes across 583 opportunities (13.38%). While the decrease may not be substantial, the locations tell a different story.
When struggling at the plate, Buxton was missing pitches in the heart of the zone. Whether a by-product of poor recognition, or an inability to get the bat around to a contact point, he was simply leaving far too many hittable pitches on the table. Fast forward to where we are now, and pitchers have begun to shy away from the Twins hottest hitter. Owning a .368/.409/.654 slash line across 39 G since the 4th of July, that's not surprising, but Buxton has dictated that change. The opposition is now needing to use the outside edge of the zone, as well as going up and away, to get him swinging through pitches.
There's also a significant difference in the quality of contact Buxton is making. With 50 hits since July 4, he already has surpassed the 46 he recorded in his first 78 games. Now seeing pitches more clearly, and displaying a better ability to generate solid contact, Buxton has barreled twice as many base hits. Balls in play have come off with better launch angles, and the expected outcomes have only trended upwards.
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| Buxton's contact has not only been more significant, but the quality has seen an uptick as well. |
At different points throughout the year, we've heard notions that the goal for Buxton needed to be beating the ball into the ground. Whether by bunting or hitting sharp grounders, the though process was that his speed would turn those scenarios into base hits. While that could've been a training mentality, it's not a mindset that ever made sense, and hopefully not one the Twins truly imposed upon the young hitter. At any rate, his surge has seen an increased lift on the ball, and as the launch angle of base hits has grown, so has the overall productivity. It's a pretty basic concept that a hitter isn't going to drive balls into the gaps or generate home runs on balls that are hit on the ground. As Buxton has lifted the ball, his slash line has followed suit.
In summary, it's really been a perfect storm for the Twins young outfielder. He went from having a .280 BABIP, 30.5% chase rate, and 13.9 SwStr% through July 3rd to completely flipping the script. Since that point, those numbers are .432 BABIp, 32.6% chase rate, and 10.8 SwStr%. Still susceptible to expanding the zone, Buxton has covered the entirety of its center,. As opposing pitchers attack him insider or on the outside edge, the next goal will be to define a strong sense of discipline to lay off anything he can't execute on.
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| No longer beating half the balls he puts in play into the ground, Buxton is elevating and seeing enhanced results. |
What's maybe most scary for Buxton is that there's still room to grow. Expecting a guy to hang onto a .400+ BABIP isn't realistic, but continuing to hone in on the strike zone would help to curve any expected regression. All of this is being done while playing elite, Gold Glove level, defense and that only adds to his overall value. After being a negative fWAR player for early portions of the season, Buxton has jumped that mark all the way to 3.2 trailing only Brian Dozier among Twins. It appears this is much more than a brief flash in the pan moment, and for a 2018 squad that should be legitimate Postseason contenders, that's a great development to bank on.
