After posting a betting primer for the 2017 season, a follow up only made sense. Last year however, offshore online bookmaker Bovada had a much lesser offering when it came to available Twins bets. Given their success a season ago, the opening options include a whopping 14 possibilities this season. Keeping in line with the 2017 blueprint, here's the best six future bets for Minnesota this year, and a confidence rating for each.
Brian Dozier O/U 30.5 HRs
A season ago, the number was 29.5 and Minnesota's second basemen was coming off a 42 long ball effort. In line for some regression, the under seemed feasible, even if it was going to take a dip of 13 home runs. Instead, Dozier garnered even more MVP votes, launched 34 long balls, and picked up his first Gold Glove (in part as a reflection of his offensive prowess). Going into a contract year with plenty at stake, it's hard for an argument to be made in favor of a significant slide. Over the past few seasons, Dozier has established himself as arguably the best second basemen in the game not named Jose Altuve. The power is real, and the bat has been more than productive. If this number was closer to the 34 from a season ago, I'd have a bit more hesitancy. ZiPS sees a 31 homer effort, and I find that to be a solid baseline. Take the over.
Over 30.5 HRs 3*
Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HRs
In the minor leagues, Rosario was always carried by his bat. After not working out as a middle infielder, he quickly shifted to the corner outfield and became somewhat of a hybrid. Not the slow and hulking type, he was more than capable of driving a ball and watching it sail over the fence. In 2017, 27 long balls were registered to his name and it came as somewhat of a surprise. With a .268 AVG and .735 OPS to his name over his first two big league seasons, the .290 AVG and .836 OPS was rather uncharacteristic. Despite having pretty static contact percentages and fly ball numbers, it was a 16.4% HR/FB rate that jumped off the page. It's probably a decent bet that the number settles in closer to 20 this season, and so that suggests we take the under.
Under 24.5 HRs 2*
Fernando Rodney O/U 25.5 SVs
Like wins, saves are a silly stat and extremely volatile. That being said, there seems to be some value here for the Twins closer. As a full time closer, Rodney has made 25 saves look like an easy benchmark to clear. He's coming off a 39 save performance with Arizona last year and even posted 25 in a season split between two teams in 2016. It's definitely fair to note that Rodney is an experience, but his blueprint forever has been effectively wild. While there's walks sprinkled in, he's still throwing gas and getting batters out on his own. By the end of the year, a different closer may emerge for Minnesota, but I'd imagine Rodney hangs onto the role longer than this line suggests. Minnesota should generate no less than 40 saves in 2018, and I'd take Rodney to account for 3/4 of them.
Over 25.5 SVs 4*
Jose Berrios O/U 12 Ws
Against better judgment, making a play on wins here seems to be worthwhile. In 2017, it was Ervin Santana a season ago with a 10.5 number and I thought the under seemed like a decent bet. He blitzed by that number and was Minnesota's best starter for a decent portion of the year. In 2018, Berrios will get his first crack at starting the year with the Twins, and he should push towards 200 innings. Last year, 145 innings were turned into 14 wins for a squad that won 85 games. Again, while wins are a volatile stat, there seems to be some value here. A larger opportunity should only bolster Berrios' chances, and I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he settles in as a true top-of-the-rotation starter in 2018. ZiPS has him pegged for 14 wins, and I'd take that as the low water mark.
Over 12 Ws 3*
Logan Morrison O/U 25.5 HRs
One of the more surprising offseason acquisitions for the Twins was the addition of left-handed slugger Logan Morrison. Surprising is used only in the sense that his addition seemed to be a nice bonus piece for Derek Falvey. Nabbed on a team friendly deal, and coming off a 38 HR power showing, Paul Molitor's DH spot immediately got a nice boost. Now the 38 long balls represented a significant career high, but it also came with a change in philosophy intended to put the ball in the air. Regression seems a fair argument given the significant spike in production, but the new process should continue to yield more positive results. In my mind, seeing Morrison dip should still end up with a number in the high 20's. This is yet another over for me.
Over 25.5 HRs 2*
Minnesota Twins O/U 82.5 Ws
A season ago, Molitor's club rebounded to the tune of 85 wins. Following up the disastrous 2016 with that effort only highlights to relative unpredictability of youth. Minnesota watched the maturation of players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario carry them at different parts of the season. Fast-forward to 2018, and the club has no real losses to speak of while adding significant pitching and hitting talent. The AL Central should be a small dumpster fire at the bottom, and the Cleveland Indians stoop pat and allowed Minnesota to close some of that gap. It's fair to argue that Molitor's club played above their true talent level a season ago, and that they were more of a .500 team. Believing that should suggest a floor of 81 wins for the current year however, and that seems like a bare minimum. Before the addition of Lance Lynn, this group looked like an 87 or 88 win team to me, and now I'd be far from shocked to see them grab 90.
Over 82.5 Ws 5*
