With just over a month until the Minnesota Twins embark upon
sunny Fort Myers, the projected Opening Day payroll is just under $97 million.
To call that a joke is putting it lightly. That number is $30 million under the
2018 mark, and about $45 million under a realistic expectation given market
factors. What’s worth noting however, is that spending doesn’t appear to be as
cut and dry as it may seem.
To date, it’s fair to call Minnesota’s offseason a mild
success. They’ve gotten better from the point in which they ended the 2018
season, and talent with solid upside has been acquired. There’s no denying this
club could use another move or two however, and that reality is what holds them
back from any sort of commendations yet this winter. It’s in buying more talent
that helps Rocco Baldelli be better positioned for a next step in 2019, but the
dollar threshold doesn’t look anything close to doable.
Thinking about what the front office could still choose to
do, there’s a couple of names that make plenty of sense. Cody Allen screams
probability in the bullpen, and a Gio Gonzalez addition would be great for the
rotation. That duo likely comes in around $20 million per season though, and
still puts the Twins $10 million under where they were previously. Short of
signing Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Craig Kimbrel the big fish is not still
on the market to raise the overall water level. Dallas Keuchel could command
enough to make a seismic shift in the payroll structure, but that may be a move
that is more based upon name than performance.
What we’re really seeing here is that short of acquiring the
top one to three names on the open market, and avenue to a fair payroll
expectation looks murky at best. Minnesota has acquired for free agents this
offseason. The club would’ve needed to bring in at least three top tier
talents, or something like seven mid-range options to account for the opened
cash flow. Allocating dollars to more talent is always a sensible ask, but what
seems more problematic is that the market correction on valuations of players
simply hasn’t taken shape.
At this stage in the game, we shouldn’t be hearing that one
or two teams are debating the validity of Machado or Harper being worth $300
million. Guys are on the market in their early 30’s and are finding one-year
pacts below and eight-figure sum. The reality is that baseball gets the most
out of talent prior to this portion of a career, and by this time, the market
isn’t willing to correct that exploitation.
You can certainly expect a piece from this writer chastising
the hometown nine if the payroll is in March where it is now. That number is
unacceptable, and opportunity has been left on the table. Even if there’s more
potential room for growth executed upon however, it’s hard not to see how organizations
would be stretching terms to get towards more realistic compensation numbers.
Across baseball, multiple franchises are worth billions of dollars.
At the bottom end of the totem pole (according to this Forbes piece) the Tampa
Bay Rays are valued at $900 million. No team has a revenue below $200 million,
and only two organizations turned a loss in 2018. What that suggests is those off
the field are doing just fine with their investment, while the players responsible
for the output are severely underpaid.
We aren’t at a point where the CBA can be rectified, but we
also aren’t far off. There’s a storm brewing for the owners, and the MLBPA
needs to be vastly more prepared the next time around. For now, it’d be great
if the Twins would allocate some of the cash that is currently set to be pocketed,
but even from the get-go this winter, their realistic additions would’ve left more
to be desired in the hands of those who play the game.
