Going into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins had plenty of
opportunity to make waves. Playing in a bad AL Central division with a strong
farm system on the rise, jump starting a competitive window seemingly was the
obvious play for the front office. At this point, they’ve upgraded the offense
while ignoring their pitching staff. In the bullpen, the most central name in
all of this is none other than Matt Magill.
The 29-year-old returned to the majors in 2018 after having
big league stints during 2013 and 2016. He logged 56.2 IP under the tutelage of
Paul Molitor, and his 3.81 ERA was plenty shiny. That’s where the luster wears
off. Under the hood is an ugly 5.08 FIP, 1.7 HR/9, and a 1.429 WHIP. He did
average 95 mph on his fastball last season, and the 75% contact rate was plenty
workable, but in the big leagues, there needs to be more.
Magill needed just 8.2 IP in Rochester prior to getting the
call for Minnesota. His minor league track record has been relatively spotty
though, and there’s the tale of a guy who owns middle-of-the-road numbers in just
about every stop he makes. Knowing that Rocco Baldelli could use a
significantly upgraded bullpen, it’s curious as to why such a smart front
office would go down this path.
Currently Minnesota is all but accepting the idea that
Magill and Fernando Romero will round out the final two spots in relief. The
former is a regression candidate waiting to happen, while the latter is a
starter being pushed into this position. There’s nothing to suggest that Romero
couldn’t move back to the rotation in the future, but this duo has become plan A
as opposed to being the fallback for what could have been better executed.
As big-league talent signs on minor league deals, and
quality options remain free agents despite the Twins having an abundance of
unused funds, the blueprint seems sketchy at best. Spending on relievers is
hardly a winning strategy in a vacuum, but right now Minnesota has a need along
with a position in which cash considerations aren’t a factor now or the future.
There’s zero argument to be made against the substantial
upgrade that Craig Kimbrel would provide in relief for the Twins. Baldelli is
tasked with a dart throw or committee approach at present, and while saves aren’t
a worthy chase, that level of reliever takes the collective whole up another
notch. Shying away from relief, Dallas Keuchel would improve the rotation, and
in turn allow Martin Perez to bolster the pen. Something like $20 million per
year for either of these guys does nothing to the Twins bottom line and would
undoubtedly be a more realistic process to drive results.
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn’t doing anything with
the bullpen or the rotation. Matt Magill and his shiny ERA are somewhat of a
defining principle for how this offseason has been handled. Sure, there’s
plenty of reason to look for more, but why not see what regression we can hope
to stave off? In relief, the Twins start with a low bar, and they’ll need to
bet on the bottom not falling out.
