If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding
impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside
of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg
represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be
called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer
he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and
some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well.
There’s little reason for any team to part with their best
pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in
Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season.
Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version
of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a
guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that
same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams.
So, where do the Twins turn their focus?
Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez
Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall
pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker
over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the
velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while
playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some
magic.
A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing.
He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better
profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily
by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54
xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy
Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches.
Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove
Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his
third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never
posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t
issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks
from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season,
but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure,
here’s another arm they could salivate about working with.
Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd
The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the
midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together
over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s
been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing
within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free
agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more
opportunity.
Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz
Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This
team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes
to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through
2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed
by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big
step forward in the command department.
Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final
Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery.
After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019.
After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the
tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to
take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so.
Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray
Another guy that was talked about heavily during the
deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s
posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability
concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates
aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of
the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is
also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of
seasons ago.
