Last night the baseball world watched in awe of the contract
that Gerrit Cole was handed by the New York Yankees. He signed the for the
largest AAV and total contract value ever given to a pitcher. New York spending
money isn’t surprising at all, but there’s a tickle down effect and how it
impacts a team like the Twins remains to be seen.
It’s a great thing that the Minnesota Twins have significant
funds and a real opportunity ahead of them. What is less than great is there’s
only so many desirable commodities. When Cole came off the board, teams like
the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels immediately pivoted to the likes of Madison
Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Just hours before, those arms looked like targets
Minnesota may be able to wrangle in. Now, the competition just became more fierce.
This exact scenario is one that we can consider during the
regular season as well. Although many teams like to wait until closer to the
deadline providing an ability to determine their fate, acquiring organizations
obviously benefit by earlier action. We can assume somewhat of a premium is
paid for early swaps, but the desired result could outweigh that cost when it
results in additional wins.
During the offseason games aren’t being immediately
impacted, but the game of musical chairs gets more intense with each spot
pulled from the circle. Zack Wheeler went from reports suggesting he’d accept
something south of $100 million to signing for $18 million north of it. That
contract upped Madison Bumgarner’s ask, and both Stephen Strasburg and Cole
being gone dwindled the list of worthy assets. Does all of that equate to an
opportunity being missed?
We’ll never directly know what contract negotiations sound
like on an individual basis, but early action could seem to hold some weight.
Rather than being worried about setting the market to high, a team could be
sitting pretty having nabbed their desired talent prior to feeling pressure of commodities
being unavailable. A team like the Twins is now faced with the proposition of
outbidding either Los Angeles franchise if Ryu or Bumgarner was their man, and
that creates a higher level of stress than was initially desired.
Although we’re discussing these principles within the realm
of baseball, it’s applicable across so many facets of life. As human beings we’re
all out for our best interests and looking to snipe a deal. Is the coupon at
Target going to save us the most money, or should we save the additional five
miles by going to Walmart and buying it first? The fear of missing out can
cause us to make rash decisions but being comfortable in our evaluations may
afford the opportunity to overlook the result.
I’d imagine Derek Falvey and Thad Levine aren’t going to tip
their hand as to which pitching assets they had ranked highest. Maybe everyone
was lumped together and they truly do not care who winds up in Twins Territory,
a true test of their internal development staff. We can draw some conclusions
or generate educated guesses once all the chips are on the table, but the
waiting and guessing game is all we have for now.
In a vacuum it seems the Twins may be best suited to
approach a high value target with a strong offer and a deadline. Maybe it doesn’t
work that way and maybe they tried, but maybe being the one without a dance
partner at the end of the song isn’t so great either.
