Not all developmental paths are the same, and not all
prospects move on a linear path to the major leagues. After being signed as a
teenager and briefly generating buzz throughout the system things came to a
halt in 2015. Now ready to kick down the door at the major league level, he may
be the biggest breakout candidate in 2020.
If you don’t know the story, it’s one of stunted
development. Tommy John surgery followed by a crazy case of mononucleosis
robbed Thorpe of two full seasons. After pitching on August 31, 2014, he was
not back in a professional game until May 19, 2017. A lot of growth and maturation
took place during that stretch, and since returning to the mound he’s done
nothing but impress.
His first year back, Thorpe posted a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9
across 83 innings. He followed that up with a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Double and
Triple-A during the 2018 campaign. Last year he saw the K/9 jump to a career
high 11.1 at Triple-A Rochester, and with the 2.3 BB/9 representing a career
low, it was time for big league exposure.
Although there were some tough outings in 2019, and the
final ERA sat at 6.18 through 27.2 IP, it’s what the rest of the results tell
us that remains enticing. Thorpe posted a strong 3.47 FIP and kept up his
strikeout rate in the bigs tallying 10.1 K/9. Averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball,
this isn’t just a traditional soft tossing lefty with an ability to spin it. He’s
predominantly a fastball/slider guy but worked in both a changeup and
curveball.
With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor
league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the
26-man roster as the 5th pitcher. Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, and
Devin Smeltzer will all be in the mix, but I’d imagine their early Triple-A
results will line up who gets what opportunity and when. For Thorpe, he has a
very strong chance to separate himself from the pack.
A former Top-100 prospect, Thorpe’s track record is one that
presents a very comforting floor. The ceiling of an ace isn’t there but a guy
that can miss bats 12% of the time, expand the zone one-third of the time, and
do a good job of limiting hard contact is something any rotation would plug
right in the middle. If he’s able to work his way into an opportunity of
extended run expecting something like the career results of Michael Pineda, and
pop up stretches of Jake Odorizzi, is more than a doable ask.
The Twins traded away Brusdar Graterol in part because of
their long-term view regarding where his innings would come from. Jhoan Duran
and Jordan Balazovic are the pitchers represented on the prospect lists, and
both remain starting candidates. Thorpe is the forgotten man in all of this
though, and if the steps forward continue with the developmental infrastructure
Minnesota has set up, he is primed to make the earliest impact.
I won’t put a timeline on where, when, or how long the
opportunity will present itself, but when the Southpaw from Down Under dazzles
don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
