Going into this offseason there’s expected to be a couple of
certainties for the Minnesota Twins. One is that payroll will reflect lost
revenue and take a step backwards, the other is that a return of an intact 2020
roster likely isn’t going to happen. Both of those things lean towards a youth
movement, but how much can the roster support?
Regardless of it being a truncated 60 game sprint, the 2020
season provided Minnesota their second straight AL Central division title. Although
they went winless in the Postseason yet again, it was their second straight
trip, and third time in the past four years. This organization hasn’t finished
lower than 2nd in the division since 2016, and it’s during this window
of competitiveness that capitalization must be executed upon.
At this point the two most likely avenues for a youth
movement come at designated hitter and in left field. It’s far from a certainty
that the Twins bring Nelson Cruz back. He’s been an integral part of their
roster, but he’s also 40-years-old, worthy of a hefty paycheck, and time will
eventually run its course. It probably is a certainty that Eddie Rosario isn’t
back in left field, his arbitration number seems destined for a non-tender.
So, what do you do? The most generally accepted answer is
that Brent Rooker could take over as the designated hitter with top prospect
Alex Kirilloff parlaying his Postseason MLB debut into an Opening Day starter
role. There’s a lot of talent in both of those bodies, but that reality is also
asking a substantial amount.
Over two seasons with the Twins Nelson Cruz has launched 57
homers and posted an OPS of 1.020. In fact, the last time he finished a season
with an OPS south of .800 was a decade ago as a 31-year-old. Brent Rooker has
played in seven big league games, and his minor league OPS checked in at .861.
I don’t think there’s any denying that Rooker’s bat is exciting, but it’s also
much less disciplined than Cruz’s, and he’d be replacing someone with
credentials worth of Hall of Fame consideration.
In the outfield things get a little bit easier. Rosario,
while he has a cannon, plays left field, and has slipped defensively as the
years have gone by. The Puerto Rican native has a general hollow slash line
with a career OPS of just .788. He hasn’t been an excellent hitter since the
.836 OPS in 2017, and even that was heavily carried by his slugging prowess. Kirilloff
looks the part of a more advanced profile at the plate, but again, he’s
stepping into expectations that will no doubt be through the roof.
I’m not one to believe that prospects need to force their
way into opportunity consistently before they find it. I think sometimes there’s
merit to allowing talent the opportunity to shine on its own. However, asking
two prospects to fill the shoes of two key contributors on a team that’s once
again aiming for 90+ wins and a Postseason berth is quite a tall task.
Minnesota probably is better off signing a tested veteran with an expected
floor to play at least one of those positions.
Maybe the answer doesn’t need to be a big spend on someone
like Marcel Ozuna. Maybe asking Jake Cave to operate as the Opening Day left
fielder isn’t aiming high enough. The answer is probably somewhere in the
middle of those outcomes, but I’m not sure reality should allow it to be a
youth overhaul without the expectation of growing pains.
