Today marked the unveiling of PECOTA’s standings projection
from Baseball Prospectus. For the Minnesota Twins, things are looking great as
the system sees 91 wins and a third straight AL Central division title. There
are definitely some noteworthy revelations, however.
Of course, as Twins fans, the hometown club appearing atop
the division once again is the most exciting development. 91 wins seems conservative
in a division that should really be a two-team race, but PECOTA doesn’t see the
breakdown working quite like that. Despite all of the fanfare, the projection
system has the Chicago White Sox finishing third in the division and winning
just 83 games.
From my vantage point, the White Sox coming in anywhere
lower than second seems like quite the shock. Cleveland dealt away Francisco
Lindor, should do the same with Jose Ramirez, and despite a stellar pitching
staff, have little else to hang their hats on. The White Sox certainly could be
primed for some regression though. They burst onto the scene a year ago, but
the season was just a 60-game sample size. Looking back to the 2017 Twins,
there was a Postseason appearance prior to a backwards slide that then set them
up for the current run.
Trying to make some sense of what PECOTA may be seeing, I
looked at the added WAR for Minnesota and Chicago through the lens of ZiPS from
Fangraphs. Chicago has added just 6.5 fWAR while the Twins tacked on a tally of
7.2 fWAR. That’s largely a reflection of where both clubs added. The White Sox
needed help in the outfield but responded with just Adam Eaton and Adam Engel.
Lance Lynn is a solid addition if he keeps down the path of recent success, but
even as good as Liam Hendriks is, Alex Colome was already stellar a year ago
and a single reliever has just minimal impact. Both Nelson Cruz and Andrelton
Simmons are seen as substantial additions for Minnesota, while J.A. Happ should
be considered a steadying presence.
Even without the distaste for Chicago clouding my view, I
still find it hard to believe that club will finish below Cleveland. I’ve
written in this space that I’d hardly be shocked if the Royals end up third in
the division, and for now I’m going to stick to that. Projection systems or
otherwise, you can bet the South Side fanbase won’t take kindly to what will be
viewed as disrespect.
One other area of note within PECOTA is the projection for
the NL Central. That division is expected to be a dumpster fire, and the
Milwaukee Brewers are slated to win it with just 88 wins. It’s worth making a
note of considering the Central will serve as the interleague foe for Minnesota
in 2021. Despite the regionalized schedule a year ago, the Twins face the same
grouping of opponents in the National League. Being able to face off against a
division that’s largely not trying should only provide additional opportunity
to add tallies in the win column.
We’ll have to take a look back on these standings come
October when the dust settles. Right now, though, another Twins division title
and some shade towards the South Side is more than good with me.
