Fall Sets Up Big Future For Twins Prospects

Nick Burdi- Knuckleballs Blog

Back in October, I wrote about the Twins and their seven players headed to the Arizona Fall League. The focus was on what each of them needed to improve or work on over the next two months, and how they could end 2015 on a high note. Over the weekend, each of them became Arizona Fall League champs, and it was because of their success that the title was claimed.

As I tweeted out over the weekend, baseball is no doubt a team sport, however it was the Twins group that carried this team during the title game. Taylor Rogers got the start and went 3.0 scoreless, striking out two and picking up the win. Adam Brett Walker drove in three of Scottsdale's six runs, and the game was closed out by both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. To put it mildly, the Twins stars shined over the weekend.

Looking back at the Fall League as a whole, the majority of the Twins prospects did themselves some considerable favors. Starting with the two guys who have now won back-to-back AFL titles, Rogers and Reed, 2016 is shaping up to be a great year.

Rogers was second in the Twins minors leagues in innings pitched this past year. He's a lefty who has good command and looked impressive for most of the Triple-A season. He established himself as Scottsdale's ace in the AFL and his 2.88 ERA and 21 strikeouts across six starts was a very good way to end the year. He may begin the season with Rochester, but he's a definite bet to contribute for the Twins in the year ahead, likely out of the bullpen.

After an impressive showing a season ago, Reed improved in his second AFL stint. Pitching in 10 games, the former Oregon Duck surrendered zero earned runs. He threw 10.2 IP giving up just six hits while striking out ten and walking just four. If the Twins are going to improve their bullpen in 2016, giving Reed a shot at some point would seem to be a good idea.

Staying with the bullpen, Nick Burdi was equally impressive in the Fall League. He gave up his lone run on a solo homer in the title game, but was lights out otherwise. Burdi was an inclusion in the Fall Stars game, and his command was impeccable owning an 11/1 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. Trevor Hildenberger also did some really nice work in relief this fall. His 12.2 IP were second highest for Scottsdale in relief. He owned a 2.13 ERA and struck out 12 while walking none. Although he played at Fort Myers a season ago, the strong showing against superior talent bodes well for his 2016 trajectory.

Then there's the offensive side of things. Starting anywhere but with Adam Brett Walker would be misguided. His Fall was very similar to the rest of his 2015, very mixed. While he was also the hero in the title game, it was his strikeout numbers that continue to cause reason for pause. His final slash line rested at .240/.326/.493 with five homers and 18 RBI. The issue though is that the strikeout week actually got worse. In Double-A this year, Walker averaged 1.65 K per hit, 1.47 per game, and 6.29 per home run. In AFL action, he averaged 1.94 per hit, 1.75 per game, and 7.0 per home run. Those numbers are going to determine whether or not he can contribute at the next level.

It's almost a certainty that Walker starts 2016 at Triple-A, and as a top 10 Twins prospect, Minnesota wants to see him succeed. However, he is not going to be a viable contributor at the big league level based on power alone. He's well behind the likes of Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn in their minor league careers. In the year ahead, it's about making more contact, working on plate discipline, and reducing the ugly strikeout numbers.

Rounding out the offensive grouping for the Twins in the fall are two catchers who had vastly different results. Stuart Turner continued along the path of being a defensive guru who can't hit. He slashed a Scottsdale worst .171/.306/.220 and totaled just two extra base hits in 12 games. The Twins still have significant reason to hold out hope (lack of catching depth being one of them), but Turner needs to hit in the year ahead.

On the other hand, Mitch Garver shunned his regular season numbers by having an impressive fall campaign. The backstop slashed .317/.404/.512 across 12 games and cranked out five doubles and a homer. He handled the bat well in 2014 before taking a step backwards this past year. If the fall production can carry over into 2016, Garver could vault himself up the ladder and into the Twins plans sooner rather than later.

As a whole, the Twins deep farm system was extremely impressive during action down in Arizona. It was pitching that owned the season, but the group set itself apart. Knowing that the big league club is getting ready to turn the corner, a couple of these contributors should be expected to be front and center in the revolution.

Twins Best Pen Arms Could Be In Arizona

Photo Credit: S D Buhr/Knuckleballs Blog

Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the front office's cry for calm prior to the season, the inevitable reality that the talent just wasn't there came to fruition. Once Glen Perkins broke down in the second half, the lone bright spot was now gone. In 2016, the goal will be to change the course, and it's possible two of the best additions may currently be pitching in Arizona.

For what the Twins have in pitching depth throughout their organization, there's also some key contributors who should be very close to their big league debut. Both drafted early in the 2014 draft, Jake Reed and Nicky Burdi are taking the Arizona Fall League by storm.

A month or so ago, I wrote a primer on what the focus needed to be for each of the Twins inclusions in the Fall League. For Burdi, the focus was no doubt going to be on his command, in that piece I said, "Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League." Often connected due to their path and pedigree, I touched on Reed as well. In talking about the former Duck I said, "Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up." We now find ourselves at a point of evaluation.

With just four games left in Arizona Fall League action, both Burdi and Reed have the bulk of their action behind them. To show for it, each pitcher has been nothing short of spectacular. For Burdi, he's pitched 7.0 innings allowing just two hits and zero runs while striking out nine and walking none. Reed has followed suit going 8.1 IP surrendering just four hits, no earned runs, and owning an 8/3 K/BB rate. In the ERA column, both pitchers have a flawless mark.

It's probably a certainty that the Twins will look through the free agency market and trade offerings for options to improve upon the pen. For both Burdi and Reed however, it looks as though they once again should have a very strong possibility of surfacing, and contributing, for the Twins this upcoming season.

During the fall, Burdi has regularly pushed the radar gun into the triple digits. He's notched 1-2-3 innings, and he's struck out sides. Reed has picked up saves, he's been used in high leverage situations, and he's gotten some very strong hitters out. Against competition that would rank among the best either player has seen on a consistent basis, both Twins prospects have excelled considerably.

With turnover needing to happen for Paul Molitor's relief help, a decision to go younger may not be a bad idea at all. Although both Reed and Burdi will need to continue the success out of the gate in the upcoming season, they should (and likely will) be given some time during big league spring training. If both players can show that the Fall League is what should be expected, and the hiccups of 2015 were just that, Molitor may have two really good arms ready to make a splash.

Affiliated during the Fall League with the Twins, Scottsdale owns a league best record and is in position to take the title. Helping them to get there no doubt has been both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. The next contribution they make could come at a much higher level.

Twins Gaining In Arizona Fall League

The Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League kicks off and with it, a handful of Twins prospects continue their development. Now playing in games against some of the most talented prospects in minor league baseball, they will be given another measuring stick opportunity. Competition regarded as higher than most of what is faced in a typical minor league game, the "All Star" rosters of sorts go at it.

For the Twins this season, seven players have been asked to compete for the Scottsdale Scorpions. After being affiliated with the Salt River Rafters a season ago, the Twins filled Scorpions will face off against Salt River in game one. The seven players on the squad include: Adam Brett Walker, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver, Nick Burdi, Taylor Rogers, Jake Reed, and Trevor Hildenberger.

As much about competing and continued development, the Arizona Fall League is about working through some of the issues that may have plagued a player during the season. Each of those seven guys has something to work on. Here's what should be the biggest focus.

Adam Brett Walker

Brett Walker pulverizes baseballs, there's no two ways about it. His 31 homers at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015 were a career high, and he doesn't seem to be losing the power stroke any time soon. The biggest issue however, is that he swings and misses far too often. With 195 strikeouts in just 133 games, Brett Walker had a 238 strikeout pace per 162 games at the Double-A level. that's only going to get worse against better talent. He needs to show more discipline in Arizona, and hopefully carry that approach over into his 2016 season.

Stuart Turner

Turner was drafted to help refuel the Twins catching depth. As a defense first prospect, the hope was that the former Mississippi catcher would eventually hit. With a career worst .223/.322/.306 line for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, that notion took a significant hit. He picked things up towards the end of the season, but seeing Turner bring the lumber in Arizona would be a very welcomed development by the Twins.

Mitch Garver

Another catcher, Garver was a 9th round pick in 2013 by the Twins. Having played at one level per year, Garver spent 127 games in the Fort Myers lineup this past season. After breaking out to a .298/.399/.481 line with Cedar Rapids in 2014, he slashed just .245/.356/.333 at High-A this season. He followed up his 16 HR performance with just four, and he struck out a career high 82 times (which still isn't a bad number). Like Turner, Garver needs to hit to move up the ranks. The Twins have catching deficiencies and it isn't going to be filled with a Drew Butera type.

Nick Burdi 

Burdi was a reliever that looked the part of a fast mover, and was someone I expected to be with the Twins in 2015. He stumbled out of the gate, and a few times throughout the year. He was demoted back to Fort Myers at one point, and his final ERA for Double-A Chattanooga was 4.53. Looking at his WHIP (1.649), the biggest problem is more than apparent. Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League.

Taylor Rogers

Continuing the Twins Kentucky pipeline is their 11th round pick in 2012. Rogers had a relatively strong 2015 season. He finished with a 3.98 ERA that was inflated with a few poor starts to end the year, but his peripherals were generally strong. Not a big strikeout guy (6.5 K/9), he also doesn't walk many (2.3 BB/9). Rogers is repeating the Fall League after making two starts a year ago. He's a good bet to push for time on the Twins roster in 2016, and I think his eventual resting place will be as a long man out of the pen.

Jake Reed

It's hard to mention Burdi without having reed to far behind. Taken in the same draft (Reed in the 5th round), the former Oregon Duck is very similar to the Louisville standout. While he doesn't throw as often in the triple digits, Reed has a power arm of his own. Another guy that was expected to surface for the Twins in 2015, Reed had a very up and down season. He too was demoted to Fort Myers, and after dominating the level again, finished with a 6.32 ERA at Chattanooga. Reed saw his strikeout rate drop (7.0 K/9 in 2015 as opposed to 11.3 in 2014), and his walk rate balloon (3.3 BB/9 in 2015, 0.9 in 2014). Like Rogers, Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up.

Trevor Hildenberger

Unlike some of his teammates, Hildenberger enters the Arizona Fall League for some different reasons. He was actually promoted in 2015 (from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers), and compiled a 1.55 ERA, 11.2 K/9, and a 1.0 BB/9. At Fort Myers, his ERA rose to 3.32 but he still struck out batters at a 9.9 K/9 clip while walking less than 1.0 per nine. The Fall League is an opportunity for Hildenberger to launch himself on a quicker path to the big leagues. He's 24, and will need to show he can compete against better talent. If he proves himself, a shortened stop at Double-A Chattanooga may be in the cards.

Make sure to tune into the Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League over the course of the next month. For these seven Twins prospects, the action could position them nicely for a different 2016 season.