Twins Having A Power Outage?

There was a time prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season that it was wondered whether or not the Twins may set some records. Those records were along the lines of a power surge that an exciting and intriguing lineup seemed to set itself up for. Fast forward to now, and the Twins have been anywhere but at the top of the home run charts, and the only record they're looking to set is in the loss column.

The question is, just where do they sit as far as home runs are concerned?

Well, the Power Index has been keeping things up to date during the season, but it's probably time to take a look and break things down a bit further. As things stand, Byung Ho Park leads the Twins in homers, and Miguel Sano trails him by one. Those two are the only players that have eclipsed double digits for Minnesota, and the team as a whole has totaled 76 long balls.

As things stand currently, Park is on pace for 28 homers, Sano is trending towards 25 long balls, and the Twins as a whole are on pace to club 176 taters. Respectable numbers to be sure, but far off from what was imagined prior to the season. With numbers resting where they are, the Twins currently have the 18th most home runs in the big leagues, and the 13th best total in the American League.

When diving in a bit deeper, the Twins aren't hitting balls out of the yard at anything that looks like an efficient clip either. Having developer some standards in the Power Index, it was determined that .16 home runs per strikeout was a solid baseline for power hitters. Among Twins batters, only Byung Ho Park (.17) and Brian Dozier (.18) are above the low water mark. With power hitters come strikeouts, but unfortunately the Twins are doing the latter far too often.

Four teams currently have 100 or more homers this season. A season ago, the baseline for team efficiency when it came to homers was .11 per strikeout. The big time home run hitting teams such as the Blue Jays and Orioles were at or above .16 HR/K. This season, all four of the teams at or above 100 homers are hitting them at a .16 HR/K clip or better. In fact, three of the four are launching homers at a .18 HR/K rate or higher.

I'm not necessarily sure that the Twins set out to hit a bunch of home runs, likely they didn't. What they did do however, was to employ a lineup that was slanted heavily towards a power output. Sure, Miguel Sano and Byung Ho Park are probably the only two true power hitters, but Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, and a handful of others are more than capable of sending baseballs out of the park. Unfortunately, Minnesota didn't project the level of futility when not hitting homers to reach the levels it has.

To be fair, the Twins have slowed from their record strikeout pace they began the season on. Of the teams striking out more though, nearly all of them also have more homers on the season. It's probably not fair to question whether or not the Twins have a power outage, that's really never been their style in the first place. What was a lineup that looked to be full of boomsticks has been anything but though, and that's been a problem.

It took Minnesota 70 games to score double-digit runs for the first time in 2016, and it'll take them a handful more to reach the 100 home run plateau. Baseball has shifted to a game where teams can choose to live and die by the longball, and this season, it's done more harm than good for Paul Molitor and his crew.

New Country, Same Old Tricks For Park

Welcome to May, the second month of the Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have started out in just about the least desirable way possible, but there's been a few bright spots. Joe Mauer has looked other-worldly at the plate, and the youth has begun to rise. An exciting development however has been the emergence of for Korean Baseball Organization superstar Byung Ho Park.

The Twins won the rights to sign the Nexen star, and inked the 29 year-old rookie to a four-year, $12 million deal this offseason. Slated to be the club's every day designated hitter, the narrative was that his power would absolutely play. Having hit over 100 homers the past two seasons in Korea, Minnesota was hoping for even a fraction of that production at Target Field.

It was fair to expect a learning curve of some sort for the newest Twins hitter. Jung Ho Kang had paved the way, and laid out an acclimation plan for his fellow countryman through his success with the Pirates a season ago. Park though, has made the transition look even smoother. Through his first six games with the Twins, Park put up a paltry .143/.250/.286 slash line while striking out 12 times and registering just two walks.

Then, things clicked.

From April 14 on (a period of 15 games), Park has slashed .294/.351/.706 for Minnesota. He's launched five homers, driving in 10 runs, and owning a 12/5 K/BB ratio. Batting in the five hole behind Miguel Sano for the bulk of that time, he's become a threat in the heart of Paul Molitor's order.

What's maybe even more impressive, is how well he is adjusting to the speed of the big league game. Despite facing faster pitcher, and more adept throwers, Park has absolutely obliterated baseballs. When making contact, he has made "hard" contact 42.9% of the time. When he is hitting fly balls, 28.6% of them have left the yard. Despite a lower contact rate (69%), he's becoming more patient in his approach, chasing pitches just 26.5% of the time.

Of course, Park is known for the longball. What maybe wasn't expected, is that the #ParkBang has been so incredibly impressive thus far in his career for the Twins. Having now recorded six homers, Park has hit just one that didn't travel over 400 feet (a 390ft opposite field bomb at Target Field), and his exit velocity has been equally impressive. Right now, Park is averaging 427.8 feet on his home runs, and they are leaving the bat at an average speed of 108.4 mph.

It's pretty safe to assume that Park is going to make most of the projections look pretty silly. To date, he's been worth 0.7 fWAR, which puts him on pace for a 4.4 fWAR mark on the season. ZiPS tabbed him for a 2.0 fWAR with Steamer projections having him at 1.9 fWAR. Considering that he's been a defensive asset (2 DRS and 1.3 UZR), combined with his offensive prowess, he should only continue to improve upon his value.

Terry Ryan and the Twins took a gamble on Park acclimating to the big leagues. It was considerable, but became pretty downsized when the Twins ended up only having to play the slugger an average of $3 million per year for his services. Right now, and really at the time as well, that contract is looking like highway robbery.

As the season gets deeper into the heart of the summer, expecting Park to continue to be an integral part of the Twins is a very good bet. It's been a fun start thus far, but Park is only just beginning.

The Twins Looking For A Fix

It began as a sweep, then turned into a franchise record, and has now reached less than unfortunate territory. The Twins opening up the season with a handful of losses as they have has been anything but expected. This was a team looking to take the next step forward, and while that could still end up being the case, they've dug themselves a massive hole. I've taken it upon myself to figure out how to fix it thought.

Short of cloning eight more Joe Mauer's, the Twins need to shake things up a bit. Here's a couple things I see as being helpful to getting this club going in 2016:

A lineup shuffle

Speaking of Joe Mauer, bat him in the leadoff spot. It's been something I've contended as making sense for quite some time, and if there's a time to try it, now would make a lot of sense. The Twins have gone with Brian Dozier for the better part of the past two seasons and mostly because they really don't have a legitimate option. Despite being a respectable OBP guy, Dozier's pop is best served elsewhere.

Mauer owns a career .395 on base percentage, and even in his career worst .265 average season of 2015, he still posted a .338 OBP. Through the first handful of games in 2016, Mauer owns a .387/.487/.581 slash line and has walked (6) more times than he's struck out (4). Forget about the idea that a leadoff hitter has to be a speed guy, you can't steal first and Mauer will get there more often than not.

Start a new outfield

No, this isn't a chance to knock the Sano experiment. There's been some lumps (honestly what in the world was that dive), but for the most part it's going just fine. You're keeping Sano in the mix for his bat, and right field is a fine place to do it. That said, his two outfield mates could afford to be swapped out. Give me Oswaldo Arcia in left with Max Kepler in center.

The Twins brought Arcia north because they aren't stupid. There's no way the Venezuelan slugger would pass through waivers unclaimed, and that's because another team will assume he can hit. Through 9 games (of which Minnesota has lost them all), Arcia has drawn just one start and been given only four at bats. He had a horrid 2015 season at the dish, but he's a year removed from a .231/.300/.452 slash line with 20 homers. If the Twins can scoff at that kind of power production given their current situation, I'm unsure how.

With Kepler you're getting a prospect with some serious upside into the field. Of course he'd be taking over for Byron Buxton, but I'll address that shortly. You'll lose a good amount defensively but Kepler's best position in the field is in center. He'll hit eventually, and if his .318/.410/.520 slash line across High-A and Double-A in 2015 is anything of substance, it'll be sooner rather than later.

Buxton rides the bus

For the most part, I diagrammed why I believe Buxton would be best suited for about three weeks at Triple-A in this piece. It's not a death sentence, and it shouldn't change the belief that he's a top end talent long term. Right now though, he needs to shorten up his swing a bit and generate some significant confidence at the plate.

In 13 games at Rochester in 2015, Buxton hit .400 and picked up at least one base hit in every game. Allow him to go down, settle in, and generate that kind of production again. Buxton has had a eerily similar career beginning to Mike Trout, and although he's never going to hit for that kind of power, wanting the immediate return shouldn't trump him getting the opportunity to contribute when he's ready.

With the Twins having signed David Murphy, someone in the outfield is headed back to Rochester. The veteran isn't going to be on the farm long, and the Twins would be best served to make it Buxton. Of course they could have just started their own players (Arcia/Kepler) rather than signing Murphy, but I digress.

Break Sano and Park off

Right now, the two biggest power threats in the Twins lineup couldn't hit a breaking pitch to save their life. Miguel Sano has made watching early fastballs down the gut a habit, and he's routinely guessed and buckled at the vision of a bender coming in. Byung Ho Park has bailed out on pitches, struggled to keep his head through the sing zone, and has flailed at offspeed stuff far too often.

I'm not sure going down to Triple-A would be a good idea for either of them. Big league benders are going to be what they need to compete against, and forcing them to work through the struggles up top seems the best plan of action. We've seen Sano handle it with the impressive 2015 he had, and it was always (yes you were wrong about Park struggling with fastballs) going to be the biggest change for Park in coming over from Korea.

Maybe the two of them need a heavy dose of offspeed live batting practice a couple of times a week. Maybe their swings need some tweaking. I'm not 100% sold on what the answer is, but breaking balls have been the pair's kryptonite and it needs to end sooner rather than later.

Level with Rosario

When looking at how to shuffle the otufield, I have a hard time suggesting Eddie Rosario not having been the worst of the Twins bunch. Following a successful rookie year that saw him put up numbers despite some really concerning offensive flaws, he's been incredibly out of sorts to start 2016. Not only are his offensive problems coming to light (he's swinging at 50.8% of pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing 19.7% of the time, both worse than 2015 numbers), but he's been awful in the field as well (-2 DRS in just 68.1 innings).

There was plenty of reasons thrown out as to why Rosario struggled as he rose through the minors. His on base percentage dipped and he looked like he didn't want to be there. I know that his disinterest has been noted as the biggest culprit. He's often been suggested as a guy that wanted to be in the big leagues and believed he was above that level. He's probably not wrong, but flipping the switch is a hard task and one he hasn't seemed capable of in 2016.

Right now, I think Buxton has more to gain from a development standpoint by going to Triple-A. If it were plausible though, I'd send Rosario out simply to send a message. His head isn't screwed on right, and it's been pretty apparent.

At the end of the day, when things are going as wrong as they are for the Twins, there's no shortage of things Minnesota can try. Paul Molitor has to right the ship sooner rather than later though. With just a small portion of the 162 game slate accounted for, there's plenty of time left, but it's up to the club to make meaningful use of it.

Twins Ready To End The 20 Year Drought

The Minnesota Twins have not been to the Major League Baseball playoffs since 2010. Following the 3-0 series sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees, Minnesota went on an ugly four-season run losing 90 or more games each year. Having begun to turn the corner in 2015 with a near playoff run, the 2016 squad appears poised to end another long drought. This one focuses on the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Marty Cordova was the last Twins player to take home AL Rookie of the Year honors, and he did so following the 1995 season. A 10th round pick by the Twins in the 1989 draft, Cordova earned the award seemingly against all odds. His 1995 season included a .277/.352/.486 slash line with 24 homers, 27 doubles, four triples, and 84 runs batted in. On a terrible Twins team, Cordova was a bright spot.

For the 2016 version of the Twins Rookie of the Year candidates, the narrative should be much different. A team that's going to be in a spot to compete, and a player with some impressive pedigree, it would appear that one of a handful of options could emerge as the front runner. With a pitcher, an infielder, and a couple of outfielders factoring into the equation, Minnesota should have no shortage of suitors.

Jose Berrios

My favorite to take the title for the Twins won't even begin the season on the big league roster. Berrios has been demoted mainly for service time reasons, but could use the first month to get settled in at the Triple-A level. He dominated Rochester a season ago, and has all the makings of a top-of-the-rotation starter. As I've mentioned before, it's hard not to think of him as capable of replicating what Jacob deGrom did in his rookie season.

For deGrom, the NL Rookie of the Year was capture thanks to a 2.69 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 while issuing just 2.8 walks per nine. That season, deGrome allowed only seven longballs and tallied 140 innings for the Mets. Last season at Triple-A, Berrios improved upon his Double-A Chattanooga numbers. The Puerto Rican posted a 2.62 ERA (owning a ridiculous 1.08 ERA across his final four starts). Starting 12 games at Triple-A, Berrios struck out double-digit batters twice, and nine another two times. Expecting him to make a splash at the big league level seems like a pretty good bet, and he's no doubt my odds on favorite.

Byron Buxton

Baseball's best prospect saw his flames fanned some after struggling in his first 138 plate appearances in 2015. The flip side of that thought process however is exactly that total, having just 138 plate appearances under his belt. Just 22 years old and still with tools oozing everywhere, this season should be the one that things start to come together.

A season ago at Double-A, Buxton was slashing just .252/.312/.472 through his first 138 plate appearances. He had tallied three doubles, six triples, and four homers in that 30 game span. While the numbers weren't horrible, they also weren't indicative of what he was capable of. His next 28 games at Double-A (prior to his big league promotion) saw him hit to the tune of a .316/.392/.509 line with 12 extra base hits. Then following an injury with the Twins, Buxton went on to hit in all 13 Triple-A games he played in, owning a .400/.441/.545 average.

In short, even without his bat Buxton has the ability to be an above average talent due to his defensive prowess. What should be expected though is for a slow-starter to settle in and eventually contribute in a big way at the highest level. If someone is going to take the Rookie of the Year honor from Berrios, it may well be his own teammate.

Byung Ho Park

It may be somewhat unfair for a 29 year old Korean superstar to be considered a rookie, but here we are. Park is fresh off two straight 50+ homer seasons in Korea, and has acclimated nicely to the big league game. Though it's a small 36 at bat sample size through spring thus far, he's already made some nice adjustments.

After being overmatched and likely overwhelmed in his first spring training game, Park has settled in nicely. He's the owner of a .306/.333/.611 slash line and has knocked three balls out of the park while picking up another two doubles. His 10 strikeouts in 36 at bats aren't ideal, but he will likely push his walk rate higher as his power plays and he becomes more comfortable at the plate. If Park pushes anywhere close to 30 homers for the Twins this season (and I expect him to do so) there's absolutely room for him to be considered for the award.

Max Kepler

If there's a long shot in this group, Kepler is no doubt it. That being said, it's also not fair to discredit the realistic probability that he factors into the equation. I'm of the belief that Kepler will get more run that assumed at the big league level this year, and he has the talent to be an All-Star level player.

Healthy after getting a late start to the 2015 season, Kepler went on to pick up Southern League MVP honors. At Double-A Chattanooga, all the German born prospect did was hit. Owning a .322/.416/.531 slash line, he posted 34 doubles, 13 triples, and nine homers while driving in 71. His speed and power combo made him an immediate gap threat, and that will no doubt play well at the expansive Target Field. He's seen an incredible amount of run throughout big league spring training, and it's not at all a mistake.

Kepler's opportunity hinges on the performance of Miguel Sano in right field, along with Eddie Rosario at the plate. If he continues to rake to start 2016, and the Twins need a boost in the outfield, expecting Kepler to be it is a good bet.

It's been an incredibly long time since the Twins have had so much promise amongst their youth. Sano put together a very strong rookie campaign a season ago, but was outdone by the likes of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor. In the year ahead, the only players outdoing each other could very well be from the same organization. Cordova is long past due in being overtaken as the last Twins Rookie of the Year, and 2016 is shaping up to be the icing on the cake.

Twins Knock Bargain Out Of Park

It's official, the Minnesota Twins have come to terms with the star of the Korean Baseball Organization, Byung Ho Park. After recently arriving in Minnesota, and dropping the hyphenation in his name, Park signed a four-year, $12 million deal with the Twins. The deal also includes a club option fifth-year for 2020 that would cost the Twins $6.5 million.

After winning the posting bid just a few weeks ago, the Twins had until December 8th to come to an agreement with Park. While he was playing with team Korea in the Premier 12, reaching a deal seemed unlikely. Following the Thanksgiving weekend, Park traveled to Minnesota arriving late Sunday night. After being in town for just over a day, the deal was done.

Park's projected average annual value looked to be somewhere in the $5-10 million range. Considering that Park was viewed as an elite KBO talent, and the Twins won a very close posting race, Major League Baseball was ready for his services. Following Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates, Park looked to expand upon the third place NL Rookie of the Year's contract (Kang has a 4yr/$11m deal).

The likely reason for the Twins being able to get Park on a four-year deal for just an average annual value of $3 million comes down to leverage. While there was rumors floating over the weekend that the Twins offer was lower than what Park had hoped, the Korean star wanted to be here. Despite being surprised by the Twins winning bid, his goal was to make a difference in the major leagues. With the alternative being no big league deal at all, Park likely moved off of his desired figure.

In finalizing the deal, the Twins get a true power threat to pair with Miguel Sano in the middle of their lineup. Considering Park will now take the majority, if not all designated hitter at-bats, the writing could be even more on the wall for Trevor Plouffe. Regardless of how the Twins go about finalizing their roster, Park's home run stroke will be in it.

After launching 50+ homers in Korea a year ago, the expectations should be lowered in the big leagues (check out what to expect from him in 2016 here). While there will be an acclimation process, expecting Park to take to big league pitching, and provide the Twins a 30 home run per year threat is a good bet.

Welcome to Twins Territory Byung Ho Park, we're glad to have you!