Buxton With the First Of (How) Many

As the Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners were announced of the night of November 7th, Byron Buxton was a lock. Yes, there were surprises among the finalists, but it was a certainty that the Twins centerfielder would win his first. There wasn't going to be a Mauer-esque snub, or a Dozier-like surprise, Byron Buxton is the best centerfielder baseball currently has to offer. With the Gold Glove solidifying that belief as reality, the question now becomes, how many more follow it?

To recap a bit, Buxton was nothing short of exceptional in the outfield for the Twins this season; you don't need sabermetrics to inform you of that. Looking at the numbers, he posted 24 DRS, a 9.9 UZR, 12.6 RngR, and a 13.1 UZR/150. In short, it was both his speed and his routes that made him the most impressive centerfielder in the game. Statcast (via Baseball Savant) came out with a new metric, Outs Above Average, for 2017 as well. Buxton's 25 OAA led all of baseball, and was also better than the total any other team (Rays 2nd with 23) could muster. For his efforts, Buxton's ability added 6 percent to expected catch percentages on balls hit his way.

It seems that each time Statcast puts forth a new defensive metric, it's Buxton that finds himself at the top. The 26 four-star outs he recorded in 2017 were an MLB best, and the 92.9% conversion rate on those outs (26-28) were also tops in the major leagues. With a 30.2 ft/s sprint speed on the basepaths, Buxton has also taken the crown as the fastest player in The Show. You'll likely be looking for a while to find something he doesn't excel at in the field.

Whether just watching him from afar, or taking a deeper dive into the advanced analytics, it's apparent that the kid from Baxley, GA is special.

So, with one Gold Glove now is his trophy case, the question becomes how many join it? Knowing what we do at this moment about his career, and what we can project going forward, I think there's a couple places we can point to in making an educated guess.

First and foremost, there's going to need to be a level of offense that follows Buxton's path. While the Gold Glove is a defensive award, Joe Mauer was left out for bigger offensive names, and Brian Dozier was included (and won) for his prowess with the bat. A guy like Buxton, so far beyond normal realms in the field, is going to be given more of a pass with his bat. For both the Twins and Buxton going forward though, the dish can't simply be a place where he punts. The good news is that a rebuilt swing under James Rowson has made it seem like that won't be the case.

Buxton ended 2017 with a career best .728 OPS despite hitting below the Mendoza Line for the first two months of the year. Across his final 82 games of 2017, Buxton owned an .801 OPS with a .278 AVG and a .332 OBP. In a full season, those numbers elevate Buxton to All-Star status, with at least a couple of MVP votes along the way. For a guy that's hit at every level of his career, I think we've only begun to see the offensive production begin to blossom, and that's quite the comforting development.

Outside of what Buxton can do in the field or at the plate, it will be integral for him to stay healthy as well. While there are times that routes are less than crisp, or closing speed allows for miraculous catches, the Twins centerfielder often finds himself acquainted with immobile objects. Finding a way to balance the ability to save games, but also not miss them will be a must as his career goes on. Outfield walls are far from forgiving, and missing stretches of play from crashing into them is hardly an ideal tradeoff. Some of Buxton's biggest highlights have included physical altercations with field dimensions, but he'll need to take care of himself from a longevity point of view.

Finally, how much can Buxton unlock from his arm. With advanced metrics measuring all aspects of defensive output, Byron has an opportunity to push the envelope with his throwing ability. A strong arm that can touch the mid-90s, accuracy seemed to leave him at points during 2017. Whether throws sail up the line, or miss cutoffs in certain scenarios, cutting down runners with more pinpoint accuracy is only going to enhance his defensive offerings as a whole.

Looking across the landscape of centerfielders, and specifically those that played for the Minnesota Twins, I'm comfortable putting Buxton Gold Glove over/under at nine. It's the same number that Torii Hunter won, and three more than Kirby Puckett tallied.

As a betting man myself, I'll take the under, but only slightly. My fear is that Buxton's reckless abandon costs him time at some points during his career, and that will hold him back from putting up the counting stats. If healthy however, Buxton is easily the best centerfielder I've ever seen, and watching him reach double-digits in the Gold Glove department would be an absolute treat.

The Gold Glove Falls Flat Again

Today, Rawlings released the finalists for the American and National League Gold Glove Award. The awards are voted on by each manager and their coaching staff via a balloting process. Over the years, the award has drawn plenty of criticism for poor selections, and too much of an offensive focus. For 2017, that couldn't be more true as Joe Mauer was omitted.

Yes, you read that correctly. Mauer not only didn't win the award, he wasn't even named a finalist.

Among the trio up for the award, you have the Red Sox Mitch Moreland, Indians Carlos Santana, and Royals Eric Hosmer. As I have been suggesting all year on Twitter, Mauer should've been considered a near favorite. The first two members of the trio were his competition, and Eric Hosmer belonged nowhere near the finish line.

While defensive metrics are hardly the sole criteria for the award, a defensively focused acknowledgment should account for them. Across the board, Mauer seemed to lead the pack. Here's how he ranked among his competition (note: There were 12 qualified 1B in the AL during 2017):

• Joe Mauer DRS t-2nd (7), UZR/150 1st (9.1), UZR 1st (7.1), RngR 1st (3.9)
• Mitch Moreland DRS 1st (10), UZR/150 2nd (5.8), UZR 3rd (4.0), RngR 3rd (2.4)
• Carlos Santana DRS 1st (10), UZR/150 3rd (4.7), UZR 2nd (4.8), RngR 4th (1.4)
• Eric Hosmer DRS 10th (-7), UZR/150 9th (-7), UZR 9th (-0.3), RngR 12th (-4.4)

Looking at the defensive metrics above, Mauer is evidently better across the board than each of his peers. While both Moreland and Santana come in close, it would seem that the overall strength of his range and ability make Mauer the favorite to win the 2017 Gold Glove. Although he doesn't see him as the favorite (Moreland is), Bill James also notes that the three finalists for the award are clearly Santana, Moreland, and Mauer.

Often, the debate whether or not hitting production be brought into the Gold Glove award is a talking point. Given the reality that the acknowledgment is for defensive prowess, it seems an odd proposition. For context though, here's how the four players looked offensively in 2017:

• Mauer .801 OPS 7 HR
• Moreland .769 OPS 22 HR
• Santana .818 OPS 23 HR
• Hosmer .882 OPS 25 HR

From a slugging perspective, Mauer has never (and will never) be the hulking first basemen type. He isn't going to launch 15-plus homers in his career ever again, and his offensive ability will forever be tied to his plate discipline and ability to get on base. Again however, the Gold Glove Award isn't supposed to be designed as a reflection of the total production from any position player.

At the end of the day, fans around Twins Territory have a legitimate gripe, and managers across baseball should be ashamed of their choices. Whether or not you put stock in sabermetrics, there isn't a single defensive statistic that views the Royals first basemen as anything but the lowest tier with his glove. While he does present a legitimate power bat, the Silver Slugger award shouldn't be carried into other voting circles.

Sometime following the World Series, an American League first basemen will be awarded the Gold Glove. With it not going to Mauer, a repeat performance for Mitch Moreland seems appropriate. Being robbed of the 1st catcher to ever win a Gold Glove at another position, and just the third player in baseball history to win the award at two positions, it's tough to see Mauer dealt this hand.

The evidence pointing towards Mauer being the American League's most elite first basemen was prevalent all throughout 2017. It's discouraging that coaches across the big leagues apparently missed that boat. Then again, Eric Hosmer has the name and the sexy numbers, so why not make the ignorant selection?

Mauer Making Us Reconsider The Hall

10 seasons into his Major League Baseball career, Joe Mauer was a number one overall pick playing for the hometown team, and owned the title of being the best catcher in the sport. Across that span, he had played in 1,178 games slashing .323/.405/.468. With awards piling up, it seemed certain a career was destined to be capped off with a Hall of Fame ceremony, the a traumatic brain injury occurred. Things have been different since, but in 2017, the Twins long tenured star is forcing us to reconsider.

There's next to no argument that can be made against Mauer's first ten years in the big leagues being among the best we've ever seen from a catcher. He piled up three batting titles, and MVP award, three Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All Star Game appearances. Despite playing arguably the most demanding position on the diamond, he was among the best players on either team on a nightly basis.

Since 2013, Mauer's post playing accolades have become murky. Dealing with the lingering effects of a career-altering injury, he's been a shell of his former self. Forced into a positional switch playing first base, he profiles oddly for the position as he's never been the traditional power hitter. From 2014 onwards, his slash line has dipped to a more human .275/.360/.388. There have been no awards handed out, and he has put forth just one season above 1.6 fWAR (the current one, in 2017).

Now, looking at his career arc as a whole, Mauer presents an interesting case for Hall of Fame enshrinement. First and foremost, the largest caveat remains that his playing career is not over, and may be far from reaching that point. With another year left on his current deal in Minnesota, and good reason to continue playing (at least briefly) beyond that, we're not in a place for definitive conclusions. That being said, 2017 has presented us an opportunity to take another look at what could become a compelling case.

Knowing what the numbers are, Mauer likely is never going to hit the "automatics." While he'll surpass 2,000 hits, he won't reach 3,000. He's not going to hit 500 homers, and and he may not even reach 1,000 RBI. His case for a plaque really never hinged on those targets anyways though, so let's take a look at what matters.

Assuming he never wins another, Mauer's three batting titles put him in rare air. he's only the third catcher in history to win a batting title, the first since 1942, and the only ever for the America League. With three batting titles to his credit, only 14 players in the history of the sport have repeated as winners more often than the Twins star. Somewhat of a throw in for his batting title years (and one extra), he also has four Silver Slugger awards.

Looking at his MVP award, Mauer also profiles rather favorably. Getting the nod in 2009, he became the first catcher to accept the honor since Ivan Rodriguez in 1999. Only 17 catchers have ever taken home the hardware, and only five have done so since 1970. Most backstops are brought in for their defensive acumen, or the ability to hit for power. Mauer combined both in 2009, and as a catcher, was a threat both with the bat and the glove.

That takes us to arguably the most compelling award, the Gold Glove. Mauer tallied three of them behind the plate. Only 11 catchers in the awards history have won more Gold Gloves than Mauer. Three is an impressive total on its own, but it's what Mauer is positioned to do in 2017 that takes thing up a notch. Joining Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad, the Twins (now) first basemen, would be just the third player in history to win a Gold Glove at two different positions. He would also be the first player in history to win Gold Gloves at catcher, and any other position.

Statistically speaking, Mauer is going to have a hard case to make. Since 2013 and going forward, his career is far from what it was. However, he'll likely still end his time in the majors with a solid .300+ average, and his fWAR will still do some good. Currently he has composed a career mark checking in above Hall of Famers such as Ralph Kiner, Kirby Puckett, Phil Rizzuto, Roy Campanella, and Lou Brock. What needs to be his calling card however, is what could have been, and the hardware that is.

There's no telling whether or not Mauer can put up another Gold Glove caliber season at first base. He's still young enough, and has looked incredible in the role this year. Whether or not that happens depends on usage and how he ages. Right now though, assuming the award is properly distributed in 2017, the Minnesota natives case for The Hall just got a lot more interesting.