Under the Hobby Hood: Baseball Cards

 

We’re now less than a week away from the release of 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball. Earlier this week I attempted a video Q&A session; it didn’t go well. Given that medium isn’t my forte, I’m hardly surprised. Looking to provide value and accomplish a similar goal, the focus turned to a mailbag instead.

 

Sourcing questions from readers and followers on Twitter, there should be a very good sample of talking points here. Without delay, let’s dive in.

What's the 2nd best Kiriloff card to get behind the 2016 Bowman?

— SW (@sdub2124) February 4, 2021

If you aren’t interested in ponying up for a player’s 1^st Bowman card (autograph or otherwise) the next best thing value wise would be considered their first Topps Chrome autograph. Kirilloff isn’t going to be in Series 1 Flagship, instead debuting in Series 2. He should have Chrome autos in 2021, so waiting for those to drop would be the next best thing. Obviously the most economical route will be his Series 2 base card (or any number of the parallels).

Do you, or anyone else on this thread, have any hobby shops to recommend in the twin cities? Pros/cons to shopping hobby shops vs eBay? Every time I check Target or Walmart the shelves are bare. Thanks!

— Chase (@Chase_Smith32) February 4, 2021

Hobby shops, along with a handful of online breakers, were how I got back into cards. Luckily, we have a handful of options in the Twin Cities area. My go to is Pal’s in Andover, but Real Breaks in Champlin has emerged as a new favorite as well. There’s a store in Golden Valley, and an option down near Woodbury. 2Bros is in Northtown Mall in Blaine, and Three Stars has locations in Bloomington and Little Canada. Hobby shops have the allure of immediate product, and many also sell singles for you to peruse through. There’s also the excitement or joy of just being in that type of environment with like-minded collectors as well. 

I bought a couple of Twins cards from you recently, missed out on a couple too. What prompted the steady PC sales over the last six months? You have some great cards.

— accobra_kid (@accobra_kid) February 4, 2021

I have started to downsize my collection for a more focused approach. I only collect Twins, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani. Rather than stockpiling a bunch of base cards I rarely look through, I wanted to make sure I could appreciate what I have. That process worked backwards too in that I had some very nice cards I didn’t display, and them sitting in a box wasn’t desirable to me. I have a new space I am going to be outfitting soon, so we’ll see how things display when I’m done.

Any secrets on when Target stocks its products? How did you get lucky today?

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) February 4, 2021

Checking for retail has literally become a crapshoot. Pretty much any time I walk into Target or Walmart I’ll look and anticipate finding nothing. People have connections with distributors or simply wait for product to be put on the shelves. Wax isn’t that important to me since my PC is so narrowly focused. When I open, most of what I pull gets sold anyways. If I’m jonesing to rip something, I typically hit up a hobby shop.

I received this from a dealer as a “toss in” with an order so I don’t know the background. What is more likely, a) It’s a legit PSA 4, or b) it became water stained after grading? (Can water seep into the case?) pic.twitter.com/6HaV5RMq3y

— Kevin Schooler (@KevinSchooler1) February 4, 2021

That’s tough as I’ve not heard of water getting into a slab before. However, it’s probably a good reminder about buying the card rather than the grade. In this situation it’s free so you win either way, but not all examples of cards at the same grade have the same appeal. I’ve kicked around buying a 1986 Fleer Jordan in a PSA 1 for a while but wanting the right one to move me before I actually make the purchase.

Mike Trout Winning Off the Diamond

Update:

Goldin Auctions actually crashed twice while auctioning off this card. Per the Action Network it sold for $900,000

During this global pandemic one thing that has seen a massive boost in the sports world is collectibles, or trading cards, affectionately categorized as The Hobby. With something for everyone, and fans of every sport, your bound to find a way to pique your interest. In the modern baseball world, the Angels outfielder is king, and Mike Trout did it again over the weekend.

As the unquestioned best player in the game today, Trout holds a special place at the top of the modern baseball card collecting ranks. His base cards transcend “common” status, and his rarer pieces fetch exorbitant prices. It’s the 2011 Topps Update that has become his iconic rookie issue, but some of the prospect cards, namely the 2009 Bowman Chrome Autograph, have driven the market bonkers.

This ended up selling for $525k

Less than 2 years ago @itsvegasdave bought the 2009 Mike Trout Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1 for. $400k

In that time a red /5 has now sold for 30% more. He’s sitting on a million dollar card. https://t.co/8xQ2R2w86C

— Ted (@tlschwerz) May 18, 2020

Back in 2018 the eccentric Dave “Vegas Dave” Oancea grabbed Mike Trout’s 2009 Bowman Chrome Superfractor 1/1 autograph for a cool $400,000. He noted having turned down offers near $1 million and said he was sitting on it until a $5 million offer came through. You’ll have to excuse his crass nature in the video, but it appears his statements aren’t nearly as outlandish as one may have assumed.

On Sunday night a 2009 Bowman Chrome Red /5 Autograph of Trout’s wrapped up through Ken Goldin’s auction house. That card brought in $525,000 and obviously doesn’t reach the same height as a 1/1. Assuming the red that was sold wasn’t Oancea’s, he too owns one of those cards as well as a handful of the orange version numbered to 25. To say the man is sitting on a mountain of Mike Trout moola is probably putting it lightly.

This explosion isn’t just in a single card though. ESPN’s The Last Dance brought tons of buyers for Michael Jordan cards out of the woodwork. Trout’s standard base issue 2011 Update has gone from a $500 card last February to a $3,000 card today. Topps has been rolling out limited print to order Project 2020 cards with different artists and the early offerings are now in such demand the price exponentially multiples on the secondary market before each card even gets into the hands of collectors.

You should never view pieces of cardboard as an investment similar to that of a stock or bond. However, classifying trading cards as pieces of cardboard is also severely missing the point if you know what you’re looking for. The return is not there for every purchase, but it’s become more than clear the hobby has a place in today’s current culture and it certainly looks like it will be here to stay.

Only a select few people are interested in buying a baseball card selling for north of $500,000, but you can bet that number grows in multiples as you back off the buy in, and there’s lots of fun to be had at any level. Mike Trout, Michael Jordan, or whoever is the next big thing, you can bet their faces on cardboard will attract plenty of fans.

Award Winners and World Series Victors

I’m doing this a bit earlier than normal this year, and that could wind up being a silly decision depending on injuries and how Spring Training plays out. Regardless, we aren’t sitting on a slew of unsigned talent in early March, and I’m confident with the look of many big-league squads going into 2020 at this point. Let’s hand out some hardware.

The Washington Nationals will head into the season looking to defend their World Series trophy. That hasn’t been successfully accomplished in 20 years, since the New York Yankees ripped off three in a row. I don’t see that trend changing in 2020, and that should be an exciting reality for baseball fans. The sport has never seen so many young superstars, and the landscape of the league’s best is once again shifting.

Here's what I had going into 2019. I got a couple of the awards right, and nailed the World Series, but ultimately came up just short of getting the winner.

MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Gleyber Torres) National League – Bryce Harper (Dark Horse Kris Bryant)

Until further notice, Mike Trout is the selection in the American League. He’s not only the greatest player in the game right now, but very well could be the best we’ve ever seen do it. There isn’t a hole in his game, and he seems to find ways to take another step forward each year. The Angels star now has a more loaded lineup around him and will look to get back to playing 150+ games. Generating 10+ fWAR for the first time since 2013 seems like a good bet.

After signing the massive deal with the Phillies, Bryce Harper had somewhat of a disappointing season. You’ll certainly take an .882 OPS any day of the week however, and now acclimated entering his age-27 campaign, a jump back up to a 1.000+ OPS is something I’m comfortable with. Marry the last two years patience and production to generate something that should be near the total package.

On the dark horse side, it’s more about what I like in each situation as opposed to legitimate threats to the actual award. Gleyber looks like an absolute superstar, and the Yankees are already going to be leaning on him heavily. Bryant has been plagued by injuries and underwhelming narratives, but he’s still coming off a .903 OPS. I don’t know what the Cubs will do, but he’ll stir that drink for sure.

Cy Young: American League – Gerrit Cole (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark horse Jack Flaherty)

Switching teams worked out well for Cole the last time he did it, and there’s no reason to expect his dominance to fade in New York. He’s pitched in a hitter’s ballpark before, and the Yankees rotation will count on him heavily. I tabbed Buehler as the pick last year in the National League, and I might have been just a year early. He finished with the 4^th best fWAR and could certainly catch the two Nationals arms in the 2020 season. This is still Jacob deGrom’s title to lose, but I like the Dodgers ace.

Maybe recycling Jose Berrios as a dark horse here isn’t fair, but he’s truly so close. A strong finish to his 2019 would’ve have him in a much better position, and he still finished 7^th among AL starters in terms of fWAR. Minnesota is going to make noise again, and he should be expected to lead the rotation. If you’ve watched the Cardinals at all then there’s nothing under-the-radar about Flaherty. He’s a stud and emerging as one of baseball’s best arms. He mixed into the tier right below elite territory last year, but another step forward would have him second to no one.

Rookie of the Year: American League – Luis Robert (Dark Horse Jo Adell) National League – Gavin Lux (Dark Horse Mitch Keller)

One of the chief requirements in garnering Rookie of the Year consideration is playing time, and Luis Robert will have that on his side. He’s an uber-prospect and will be with the White Sox from the jump. I’d expect some growing pains, but there’s too much talent not to side with the favorite in the AL. Lux made his debut last season for the Dodgers and will be unleashed fully in 2020. He’s a middle infield stud and should have little issue producing with a star-studded lineup around him.

Back to that playing time issue, which is the only reason I don’t like Adell over Robert. I think the Angels start their outfield prospect in the minors and holding him out for a month or two could make the counting stats lag behind. He looks the part of a worth specimen to play in a Mike Trout led outfield, and you can bet he’ll hold his own. Keller’s big-league career began ugly with the Pirates last year, but he’s far too talented to continue going down that road. He still has rookie eligibility and should use the lessons from 2019 to establish himself as a very good arm for Derek Shelton’s squad.

Postseason:

American League- Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Angels, Rays

National League- Braves, Cubs, Dodgers Wild Card – Reds, Nationals

ALCS – Twins over Yankees

NLDS – Dodgers over Braves

World Series – Dodgers over Twins

This probably comes off looking like a homer pick, but the Twins showed they’re for real last year. Sure, they didn’t hit in a three-game sample size against New York, but this is a team that will win less regular season games and ultimately be better positioned in the Postseason. Both New York and Houston are going to be very good, but losing Severino is a big blow, while the Astros are eventually going to be squashed by the scrutiny. One of the most interesting teams in the AL this year should be the Angels.

On the National League side, it’s hard to look away from the talent Atlanta has throughout the lineup. Acuna is established, but I think Albies is the guy that takes another step forward. That division will be tightly contested, but I like Washington more than I’ll ever trust the Mets. Chicago is a complete wild card, and Cincinnati is one of those “won the offseason” clubs. It all comes down to how good the Dodgers are, and the only definition needed there is “very.”

Los Angeles has come up short two of the past three years. That ends in 2020 regardless of who is across the diamond. Mookie Betts wasn’t even a necessary addition, but with him in the mix, they’ll be an unstoppable force come October.

2019 IBWAA Award Ballot

With the 2019 Major League season coming to an end it's become time to hand out awards to those players putting up exceptional results this year. Unfortunately we've seen some of the greatest players this year go down during the stretch run and that's thrown somewhat of a wrench in the voting process. Wanting to wait until I felt completely comfortable with my ballot, I only just filed it today.

The Internet Baseball Writers Association of America differs from the BBWAA but attempts to provide a similar service in fairly handing out seasonal award and Hall of Fame designations. Inclusive of bloggers and bit larger audience, I am again privileged to submit a ballot this season. With that all out of the way, here's who I went with.

MVP: American League - Mike Trout National League - Christian Yelich

In my view Trout had this wrapped up months ago. The greatest player in the game somehow put up even more exceptional numbers in 2019 and continued to take his game to another level. Unfortunately his foot injury ended up requiring surgery and cut his final tallies short. Alex Bregman made this somewhat of a race down the stretch, but he comes up just short.

Like Trout, Yelich watched his season be cut short on a fluke foul ball. The race with Cody Bellinger was a fun one all year, but even with the additional player time, the Dodgers outfield still comes up a bit short for me. Anthony Rendon and Ketel Marte were also in consideration here.

Cy Young: American League- Gerrit Cole National League - Max Scherzer

It's truly something special that the Houston Astros had pitchers 1A and 1B when it came to Cy Young voting this year. You're splitting hairs when trying to decide if it's Cole or Justin Verlander for the award but I went with the former. Cole is an impending free agent, and going into that process with a new piece of hardware is quite the announcement.

You could probably make the argument that it's become a bit boring to see how good Scherzer is on a yearly basis. This would be his fourth Cy Young, and while the Washington Nationals don't have a World Series to validate his mega-deal yet, it isn't because of his performance. The Mets Jacob deGrom is right there when it comes to a secondary candidate, and I don't think you could go wrong choosing him either.

ROY: American League - Yordan Alvarez National League - Pete Alonso

For the Astros to be as good as they have been in 2019, it's not surprising to see them have contributors arise out of nowhere. Alvarez was acquired for a reliever and burst onto the scene as a designated hitter that launched balls out of the park with regularity. The Twins Luis Arraez provided some thought due to his hitting ability, and had he been health for longer the Rays Brandon Lowe likely factors in. The notable omission is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who was the presumed winner here. He'll have better seasons ahead with the talent he possesses.

Unfortunately we didn't get to see a full season of Fernando Tatis Jr., and Mike Soroka was also great for the Atlanta Braves. When the dust settles though, there's no arguing against the Mets first basemen. He leads all of baseball in homers and has been a catalyst on a team that's had as much of a rollercoaster season as you'd ever want to endure. No matter how the rest of Alonso's career goes, his debut in the majors is one he'll be able to look back upon fondly.

MOY: American League - Rocco Baldelli National League - Brian Snitker

Minnesota was coming off a season in which Paul Molitor watched the Twins take a step backwards. Young contributors didn't develop as hoped and Minnesota went from a wild card berth to a losing record. Some of that was expected regression, but Rocco Baldelli represents everything that was missing in the organization. He hasn't been perfect, but he's brought a fresh perspective and a galvanizing attitude that created the Bomba Squad and had them firing on all cylinders.

The NL East was expected to be a hotly contested division this year and while there were arguments made for every club it is the Braves that put it all together. Brian Snitker managed youth and veterans alike to get a result that had them as the clear favorites for most of the season. Ronald Acuna Jr. has flourished, Josh Donaldson returned to stardom, and the pitching staff provided more than could have been expected.

Reliever: American League - Liam Hendriks National League - Kirby Yates

Failed starter solid reliever, and now one of the best in the game, Liam endriks has seen it all. The Oakland Athletics have turned out some really strong pen arms with Blake Treinen having een the 2018 example. Hendriks became a legit weapon for the Athletics this season, having previously been DFA'd, and the journeyman won't be looking for a new landing spot any time soon.

After bouncing around and being a late bloomer, Kirby Yates has flourished in San Diego. He put up strong numbers during 2018 and ratcheted things up another level this season. Despite being a first time All-Star at age 32, the Padres were right to ask for the moon in any Yates focused trade talks. They should trend positively in the near-term, and this is an arm that can stabilize that pen for a while.

The Series, Awards, and the Best of 2019

As the 2019 Major League Baseball season quickly approaches, I find myself running out of time to get out ahead of the yearly prediction game. Looking at the key individual awards, as well as how the Postseason will shake out, there’s plenty of excitement to come in the year ahead. I am of the belief there’s a significant number of teams not currently trying, but there’s a good cluster that will battle against each other in both leagues this year.

Before we get to how I see the year going for teams, it’s worth looking at what the cream of the crop may look like individually. We don’t have the obvious Shohei Ohtani out of the gate, and we’ll need to see the emergence of the next Ronald Acuna or Juan Soto. Pitching awards are littered with favorites of guys that have done it all before, but there’s also some new names right on the cusp. Here’s who I see capturing individual recognition.

MVP: American League – Mike Trout (Dark Horse Carlos Correa) National League – Nolan Arenado (Dark Horse Cody Bellinger)

One guy is looking for his third MVP award while another is looking to get over the hump and capture his first. Mookie Betts jumped up and nabbed the title out from under Mike Trout last year, but the greatest player in the game is ready to take back his throne in 2019. On the flip side, Arenado came ever so close to his first MVP a season ago but fell just short. With the ink still drying on his newly signed contract extension, he should find the hardware as a nice reward for his efforts.

I’m not all in on either dark horse candidate here but think they both have some nice post-hype appeal. Correa hasn’t played a full season in two years, but flashed MVP caliber abilities at multiple points throughout his career. Bellinger ran away with the Rookie of the Year vote in 2017, and then slide backwards a bit in 2018. I’d think his true ability lies somewhere in between, but at just 23-years-old, there’s no reason to think that the ceiling may not be even higher.

Cy Young: American League – Justin Verlander (Dark Horse Jose Berrios) National League – Walker Buehler (Dark Horse German Marquez)

Outside of Verlander, this may be my favorite prediction of the offseason. I love how many new names are popping up on the elite pitching scene, and as baseball fans, we all stand to benefit from them. Verlander was right there a season ago and could be looking at his second victory (and first with the Astros). For the Dodgers it’s obviously disheartening seeing the decline of the great Clayton Kershaw, but what better way to mitigate that than to have Walker Buehler in tow. This kid is the real deal, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we’re talking about multiple victories a handful of years from now.

The dark horse candidates for the Cy Young are so fun. Jose Berrios is already a staff ace for the Minnesota Twins, and looks like a bit more refinement could have him making a significant leap forward. The breaking pitches are ridiculous and commanding them a bit better should do the trick. German Marquez may be the best under-the-radar hurler in the game right now, and he’s working to dispel the notion that pitchers can’t be great in Colorado (with teammate Kyle Freeland doing the same).

Rookie of the Year: American League – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Dark Horse Forrest Whitley) National League – Victor Robles (Dark Horse Nick Senzel)

There’s no prospect that has been talked up more in baseball than Vlad Jr. Son of the recently inducted Hall of Famer, Guerrero Jr. wields a bat that is otherworldly. The Blue Jays have suppressed his service time all they can, and while he’ll need to wait a few more weeks before breaking into the big leagues, there’s no reason why the bat shouldn’t play. He’s not going to last at third base long, but if the OPS is north of .900 in his debut campaign, he’ll run away with this. Now that Bryce Harper is gone for the Nationals, Victor Robles finally has a clear path to playing time. Previously the best overall prospect in baseball, his breakout following teammate Juan Soto of a year ago would be a nice development for Washington.

It almost seems unfair that the Astros would be able to add another ace to their pitching staff, but Forrest Whitley could prove to be just that. The best pitching prospect in the game has looked great this spring, and he’d be a mid-season addition any team would love to have. He may not be up long enough to catch Vlad, but he should make this interesting. The Reds are going to give Nick Senzel a shot to stick in the outfield after coming through the system as an infielder. His bat should play for both average and power, while all early indications suggest he’s made a seamless position change.

Postseason:

American League - Yankees, Twins, Astros Wild Card – Red Sox, Angels

National League – Nationals, Brewers, Dodgers Wild Card – Phillies, Rockies

ALCS – Astros over Yankees

NLCS – Nationals over Dodgers

World Series – Astros over Nationals

A big believer in what the Nationals did this offseason, despite losing Bryce Harper, they’re going to be a tough team to beat. That rotation should be one of the best in baseball, and is Robles breaks out as expected, their outfield could challenge that title as well. Depth could be a concern in multiple places here, but I like what Dave Martinez must work with.

Houston came up just short last season losing to the Red Sox in five games. Boston has taken a step backwards, and the Astros are ready to make it two World Series victories in three years. This lineup is loaded, the pitching staff is for real, and A.J. Hinch has a group that knows how to win.

Who Wins What? Awards And Divisions

With spring training behind us, and Opening Day upon us, it's time to take a stab at how the 2017 Major League Baseball season will shake out. At the current juncture, hope is renewed and every team starts with a clean slate. Before the first pitch, each organization has, if for just a moment, the same standing when looking to end the year with a trophy.

A season ago, I simply posted my award and Postseason picks on Twitter. I wanted to have the thought a little more fledged out this year though, so I figured I'd go with a full post. With that being said, let's get into it.

American League:
West- Astros
Houston has a lot to like. They have a glut of young stars, and I think the pitching is there to carry them as well. I'll miss Tal's Hill, but this club is going to be really good in 2017. I think the Rangers can hold serve with them, and the Mariners are a bit overrated in my opinion, but I have the Astros taking the division.

Central- Indians
Cleveland should again be good, but they also shouldn't really be challenged. The White Sox and the Twins aren't very good, while the Royals are fading, and the Tigers are old. The Indians should run away with the division.

East- Red Sox
If there's a team that went out and did something this offseason in the AL, it's the Red Sox. I love the Chris Sale move, and think Pablo bounces back nicely. Combine that with another stud outfielder in Benintendi, and you have a pretty nice recipe for success.

National League:
West- Dodgers
The Dodgers just have so many weapons at their arsenal. They have the best pitcher in the game, and a lineup that has good hitters up and down it. Add in Bellinger at some point, and this club is going to be fun to watch. I think one team of intrigue here is the Rockies, and they could play spoiler in the Postseason, even if they don't top the West.

Central- Cubs
I'm not picking against the reigning World Series champs. They have the best lineup in baseball, a great rotation, and a bullpen that should have a lockdown closer for more than just the final few months. Joe Maddon's team is in full repeat mode, and everyone else is chasing them.

East- Nationals
There should be some real concern with the Nats pen. Dusty Baker is going to have to get big performances out of whoever closes for him, and he's going to need the starters to hold serve. That said, the lineup is still potent, and Bryce Harper should be on a revenge tour this season. The Mets should be in play here, but I just don't think they have enough.

Postseason:
AL Wild Card- Rangers, Blue Jays
NL Wild Card- Rockies, Mets

World Series- Cubs over Astros
When the dust settles, the talent gap between Chicago and the next best team is just a little bit too wide. They'll likely pick up a piece or two down the stretch, and they still have Ian happy to add along the way. I have some concerns about Almora being an every day player, but Maddon should navigate and once again have Wrigleyville rockin.

Awards:
AL ROY- Andrew Benintendi
NL ROY- Dansby Swanson

AL Cy Young- Chris Archer
NL Cy Young- Clayton Kershaw

AL MVP- Mike Trout
NL MVP- Bryce Harper