The Middle And Its Dangers

It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated Wild Card race with just over a month to play. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to toe the middle this season, and it could prove costly.

For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game Wild Card playoff.

In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having went through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish.

Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition, that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense.

That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters.

During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously.

Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current Wild Card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future.

Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back.

With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug, Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug), and injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Not needing to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future deterring move, Minnesota stood pat.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324 against him. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect.

In holding him back, the club doesn't need to answer to service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more.

Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could end up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control.

By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them to September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt benefit the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring.

Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. In promoting during September 2015, and then May 2016, Berrios's service time implications would be as if he was not promoted this season at all.

Because of handling things how they did, the Twins find themselves right in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being perceived. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?"

The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top.

For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait.

Twins A Rock In A Really Hard Place

It wasn't supposed to go like this, Minnesota was not at all defined as a surprise team in 2015. In a stacked AL Central, it was the Twins who were supposed to be sellers, and once again teeter on the brink of losing 90 games. Fortunately, none of that has played out as expected, but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and tough decisions.

Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL Wild Card positioning. Once in firm control of a playoff spot, a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock the Twins out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a rollercoaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament.

In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline timeframe, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen.

The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That begs the question, what do the Twins see themselves as?

Typically, a rental type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking to be somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling.

With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make somewhat of a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however.

Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season.

On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40 man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40 man).

At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected.

Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight.

Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating just how the club handles the crossroads it currently finds itself at.

The Trades The Twins Should And Should Not Make

Although we are still at the beginning of July, you can bet that the Minnesota Twins and Major League Baseball contenders as a whole, have begun looking for ways to improve their rosters. For the Twins, this seems like uncharted territory given the last four seasons, but here we are. As Minnesota looks to hang into the AL Central, they no doubt need to remain patiently alert.

Terry Ryan and the Twins have rarely had a knack for making big splashes, and that should be counted on as a constant much more often than it shouldn't be. However, knowing this team is still outperforming advanced analytics, sustained winning will likely take other options to continue as a possibility.

Looking at the proposed names thus far in relation to the Twins, there's some intriguing options, and some less than appealing. How the Twins navigate this month could determine the way in which they deal with the end of it. Here are a few of the possibilities:

Will Smith- LHP Brewers

Smith is up for arbitration in 2016, and is under team control until 2020. At age 25, that makes him immediately someone tied to a higher acquisition cost for a team looking to upgrade their bullpen. On the season Smith owns a 1.47 ERA, 1.74 FIP, and an 11.7 K/9. He probably walks more batters than you'd like out of a reliever (3.5 BB/9) but there's no doubt the strikeout punch would be nice for the Twins pen.

If Minnesota is determined to make a splash of sorts, Smith is probably as far as I would suggest going. He's likely going to net the Brewers a sizable return, and while he should factor into the Twins future plans as well, I'm not sure I'd be for giving up valuable assets here.

Neal Cotts- LHP Brewers

Sticking with the Brewers, Cotts presents a different kind of possibility. At 35, and a free agent after the season, Milwaukee can't be expecting much more than a mid-level prospect in return. Cotts hasn't been lights out as he owns a 3.53 ERA backed by a 4.29 FIP. He strikes out guys at a solid rate (9.3 K/9) but also walks his fair share of batter (3.0 BB/9). Against lefties though, Cotts is more than respectable giving up just a .200/.224/.309 slash line. Also, in his last 18 appearances, he's been virtually untouchable: 19.2 IP 0.92 ERA 21/7 K/BB .217/.289/.232.

This is probably the type of move I would advocate the Twins to make. Right now, the bridge between each night's starting pitcher and Glen Perkins is shakier than a trapeze artist on a tightrope. Cotts isn't your typical LOOGY, and he's proved more than effective of late. If Milwaukee is willing to deal, the Twins should be listening here.

Marlon Byrd- OF Reds

Sure, he's 37 years old, but Marlon Byrd continues to prove valuable through his bat. For the Reds this season, Byrd has slashed .245/.300/.467. With 14 home runs, 32 RBI, and a .767 OPS, Byrd has kept father time at bay. It's not that the Twins offense is too good for a bat like that to play, but instead, that they don't necessarily have a place to put him.

Minnesota's largest position of depth at the major league level right now is in the outfielder. They have the best prospect in all of baseball who will be nearing a return, young players in Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario who continue to have value, and a veteran (who has posted similar numbers to Byrd) in Torii Hunter. On top of those mentioned, we haven't even discussed Oswaldo Arcia (who is mashing down in Triple-A Rochester: .412/.44/.824 4 HR 10 RBI in his last 8 games), or 40 man prospect Max Kepler.

It's probably not that Byrd doesn't have value, but adding him may hurt the Twins in the long run more than it helps.

Carlos Gomez- CF Brewers

A retread of a former Twins player has to be thrown in here. After all, Jason Kubel, Matt Guerrier, and Jason Bartlett have all been back through lately. Obviously Gomez is in another league than those guys, but it's worth noting nonetheless. Gomez is an All Star level talent and is hitting .268/.313/.420 in a down year this season. He's got six home runs and 32 RBI for the Brewers, and he continues to track down everything in the outfield.

Forget the fact that an outfield with Gomez, Buxton, and Hicks would never see a flyball drop (ever), but many of the same problems a Byrd acquisition would face come into play here. The Twins outfield is crowded, and is a position of depth more than anything. On top of that, Gomez would likely cost the Twins a prospect like Jose Berrios. Combine that with the fact Gomez is a free agent after 2016, and being a Scott Boras client, likely wouldn't re-sign with the Twins. I don't know how Minnesota could mortgage the future for a year and a half window.

The Twins find themselves in the curious position of being relevant before they expected. While relief help fills a need this season, it should be expected to benefit going forward (after all, internal options are thin at the moment). Going forward though, the Twins have more pressing needs at positions like shortstop and catcher than to be dealing for a boost in an odd area.

With plenty of time left in July, and more importantly games left to be played, things should sort themselves out on the field for Minnesota. If the Twins can keep winning and stay in the thick of the race, adding a lower cost relief option would be a necessary move. No matter how the situation shakes out though, making a big splash or dealing prized prospects likely won't (and shouldn't) be the plan of action.