Showing posts with label Trevor Larnach. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor Larnach. Show all posts

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Midseason 2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

It feels good to be able to write about actual minor league baseball action again. After it being shelved in 2020 and the only updates coming from unattended alternate site workouts, real games taking place is a welcomed reality. For Minnesota, there’s been lots of graduations from the farm, and even more shifting.

Traditionally this top 15 update has come after the Major League Baseball draft. With the timing of that event being shifted into July, I wanted to keep things consistent. Coincidentally, it was this exact date last year that the previous midseason update dropped. If you’d like to take a look at where I had guys coming into 2021, you can find all archived rankings below. Let’s get into it!

15. Jose Miranda IF

While he’s never made a top 15 for me before, Miranda has consistently been a “just missed” type. That doesn’t happen when you’ve got a .919 OPS in your first 37 games at Double-A. Lots of hype for Jose has been built around his bat and the work he did last year during the downtime. Looks like that was right.

14. Cole Sands RHP

A 5th round pick back in 2018, Sands is now nearly 24 and at Double-A. He’s got 31.2 innings under his belt thus far for Wichita and owns a dazzling 2.84 ERA. The 5.1 BB/9 isn’t a great look, but the 11.9 K/9 continues his strength of being able to punch batters out. He was impressive when I saw him during Spring Training in 2020, and the arrow continues to point up.

13. Misael Urbina OF

Signed out of Venezuela, Urbina has made his stateside debut in 2021. He’s struggled in Low-A thus far, but there’s speed and defensive ability here. He also may run into a good amount of pop and he’s just 19 years old.

12. Gilberto Celestino OF

Forced into action for the Twins this year due to outfield injuries, Celestino is up ahead of schedule. He’s played just 21 games at the Double-A level for Minnesota, and the bat still has a ways to go. He’s a plus defender with good speed, and if he can hit at all, there’s a fourth outfielder at worst here.

11. Matt Wallner OF

One of the most athletic Twins prospects, Wallner has hit everywhere he’s gone in the system. He owns a 1.005 OPS in his first 17 games at High-A but has been shelved with a wrist injury. Would not be shocked to see him be a solid corner outfielder with a plus arm and plus bat. Just need to get him healthy and back on the field.

10. Brent Rooker OF/1B

It continues to be tough sledding for Rooker when looking for big league playing time. He’s a liability in the field and that bat absolutely has to play. It has again at Triple-A this season, where he’s got an .861 OPS for the Saints. If the Twins need bodies though, it’s been in the outfield, and he just can’t really help there. Should they choose a more rotation DH situation going forward, Rooker will factor in nicely.

9. Josh Winder RHP

Another 2018 draft pick, Winder has impressed coming out of the Virginia Military Institute. Now 24 and at Double-A, he’s arguably been the best arm on the farm. He’s got a 2.16 ERA across 41.2 IP and his 10.8 K/9 pairs well with a 1.7 BB/9. He’ll be a Triple-A option soon and pitching 125 innings back in 2019 should work in his favor as far as workloads go.

8. Blayne Enlow RHP

This one hurts, because Enlow could’ve found himself even higher on this list had his year gone differently. After 14.2 IP and a 1.84 ERA, Enlow underwent Tommy John surgery and will be out well into 2022. He’s still just 22, but it would’ve been great to see him at Double-A this season.

7. Matt Canterino RHP

Another arm of concern here, Canterino is currently shelved and it’s murky as to when he’ll return. He owns a 1.00 ERA and 35/3 K/BB at High-A in 18 innings this year. It’s clear he’s ready for a step up in competition, and maybe should’ve even started at Double-A, but again, health is the chief concern.

6. Aaron Sabato 1B

Do I love that Sabato has just a .668 OPS at Low-A in his first 36 professional games? No. Do I love that he has a 22% walk rate in those games? Yes. He’s got an advanced eye in a league where plenty of pitchers are fighting command. The power is real and should eventually play.

5. Keoni Cavaco SS

Recently having turned 20, Cavaco is getting acclimated at Low-A. He has just a .673 OPS but seemed to be putting some positive developments together prior to a concussion related injury stint. This is a big year of growth for him and seeing some of the tools that had him shooting up draft boards would be exciting.

4. Jhoan Duran RHP

A late start to the year set the timetable back some, but Duran should still be expected to reach the majors in 2021. He’s been both lights out and wild at times for the Saints, but it’s clear why there’s so much to like with him. A triple-digit fastball that he does have good command of is going to play.

3. Trevor Larnach OF

It won’t be long and Larnach will have graduated from this list. He isn’t higher because I’m not sold on him being a perennial All-Star type, but there’s nothing to suggest he’s not a starting corner outfielder for a long time. The bat has contact and power, and the eye has quickly established itself. The kid is good.

2. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Starting the year on the IL wasn’t ideal, but Balazovic has now taken three turns in the Double-A Wichita rotation. He’s racked up 16 strikeouts in his first 9.2 IP, and this may be the Twins next best shot at developing an ace. There’s an outside chance he could make a start in Minnesota later in 2021.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Done for 2021 before he started, Royce Lewis tore his ACL, and it was discovered on intake. The year of development being missed after a lost 2020 and tough 2019 isn’t ideal. His character continues to suggest he’ll dominate rehab, and the ceiling remains as high as anyone within the organization.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Larnach Leading Rookie for Twins

 


Alex Kirilloff was the Twins first round draft pick in 2016. When the new front office took over, they went with Royce Lewis the next year, and then followed up with Trevor Larnach. Since that point I’ve contended the separation between Kirilloff and Larnach shouldn’t have been presumed to be much. We’re now seeing that take shape.

 

Kirilloff is playing through an injury, and while he’s having himself a nice debut, I don’t think it’s quite to the level he’ll reach in short order. That’s given way for Larnach to shine though, and he’s done exactly that. Trevor was thrust into a Major League role given the Twins outfield health issues. Having played just three games at Triple-A, and only 43 at Double-A two years ago, a premature call-up is probably fair to suggest.

 

Despite taking some time to acclimate, he’s begun to settle in. Now with 31 games under his belt, the former Oregon State Beaver owns a .263/.386/.421 slash line. The .807 OPS isn’t all that noteworthy, but the 131 OPS+ plays, and the number that jumps off the page is the .386 OBP backed by a strong 33/14 K/BB.

 

Larnach hasn’t yet ran into much power. He has just nine extra base hits, of which only three have left the yard. That isn’t to suggest the process isn’t sound, though. Drafted with notes of high exit velocities, that has played out at the highest level. Larnach owns a 37.1% hard hit rate and a 14.5% barrel rate. His xSLG sits 40 points higher at .466 and he owns a max exit velo of 116 mph.

 

I don’t think you’ll find anyone jumping to suggest that Larnach is otherworldly on either of the corners, but it’s more than apparent he can stick. With the bat profile he has, a traditional corner outfielder with pop is exactly what he’s trending towards. This isn’t a finished product by any means, but I think the Twins have to be thrilled with the early returns. Recently at Fangraphs, Paul Sporer also took a look into where Larnach could go from here.

 

Both Larnach and Kirilloff should be mainstays in the Minnesota lineup for years to come. We have seen both of them bat in the heart of the order this year, and while that’s more reflective of circumstance, they’ve held their own plenty. In lieu of so many injuries having piled up on the Twins this season, it’s been nice to see opportunity parlayed into production for a guy like Larnach.

 

Not every prospect comes up and flourishes. The Seattle Mariners just had to demote top prospect Jarred Kelenic after a terrible start. Baseball is hard, and even moreso when the runway for readiness hasn’t been there in a traditional sense. Give it to Larnach for battling that adversity and still producing at the level he is.

 

While Kirilloff is still my pick to be the better player with a more likely shot to win a batting title, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Larnach round out into a more complete specimen with an opportunity to bang 40 homers in a single season. It’s been a good start, and this is just the beginning.

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Kirilloff Injury Affords Opportunity to Twins

 


Yesterday the Minnesota Twins had to scratch Alex Kirilloff from the starting lineup when it was discovered he was dealing with wrist discomfort. It sounds as if a looming IL stint is around the corner, and that’s disappointing news for Rocco Baldelli’s hottest hitter. What happens from here could set the tone for the rest of the way.

 

Miguel Sano has been on the Injured List for Minnesota as he dealt with a leg injury and was working on timing prior to an activation. Kirilloff had been playing first base but could’ve slid back in to left field where Jake Cave has done little more than take up space this season. Now without Kirilloff in the mix, the front office has a decision to make.

 

The immediate answer would seem to be a veteran placeholder such as Keon Broxton. He looked the part in Spring Training and has had big league success previously. Success is relative however when you’re talking about a guy with a .685 OPS across just north of 1,000 plate appearances. Broxton is a plus defender and does have some pop in his bat, but he’s hardly a sustainable bet to push the bar for a failing Twins team.

 

Much like Kirilloff before him, if Minnesota wants to respond with the opportunity to make an impact, it’s time for the training wheels to come off top prospect Trevor Larnach. Now 24, the 2018 1st round pick is currently at Triple-A St. Paul. He only has two career games at that level, but the assumption should be that he would’ve spent considerable time there in 2020 had a season take place. The former Oregon State Beaver is a polished hitting prospect with an .850 career OPS in pro ball. He has an advanced approach at the plate and is hardly a strikeout machine despite being a power hitter.

 

Unlike Kirilloff, Larnach should be ticketed for a corner outfield spot. Whereas Alex is destined to play first base, and do it well, Larnach’s athleticism will keep him in the grass, and he should be able to provide average or better defense out there. Given the shortening length of Rocco Baldelli’s lineup at the big-league level, adding another bat like this that can start in the bottom half would give hope to a club floundering out of the gates.

 

It’s probably unfair to pin the expectations that were placed on Kirilloff directly to Larnach. That said, they’ve consistently ranked as eerily similar prospects to me, and I’d be far from shocked if the bat didn’t immediately translate for Trevor as well. Keon Broxton is a player in the same vein as Kyle Garlick or Jake Cave. They have utility but asking them to be a regular stretches their overall value. Putting Larnach into a spot where he can contribute at the highest level raises the overall water level, and who knows where things go from there.

 

He’d need a 40-man roster move, and this is probably sooner than the front office wanted to unleash him, but it’s time for Trevor Larnach to become a Major Leaguer.

Monday, December 7, 2020

2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

 


This will be my 6th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.

 

The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.

 

Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:

 

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

Now, let’s get to it!

15. Akil Baddoo OF

Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.

14. Gilberto Celestino OF

Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.

13. Matt Wallner OF

The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.

12. Matt Canterino RHP

On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.

11. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.

10. Aaron Sabato 1B

I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS

Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.

8. Brent Rooker OF/1B

If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.

6. Ryan Jeffers C

Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.

2. Royce Lewis SS

Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.

1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Twins Must Figure Out Corner Prospects

 


The Minnesota Twins signed two long term extensions for current big leaguers back in 2019. One of them was given to German left fielder, Max Kepler. He’s unlikely to be going anywhere, but the same can’t be said for right fielder Eddie Rosario. With just one open outfield spot, the organization has at least three corner talents to generate a plan for.

 

Now able to call the 2020 Major League Baseball year, last season, it comes with the reality that top prospect Alex Kirilloff made his debut. Surprisingly, he did so in the final game of the year, an elimination tilt against the Houston Astros during the Wild Card round of the Postseason. In making that debut however, it was the second appearance from one of Minnesota’s premier corner outfield talents.

 

Brent Rooker beat Kirilloff to the big leagues. Prior to a season ending injury, Rooker impressed during his first seven major league contests. He posted a hearty .960 OPS and three of his six hits were of the extra base variety (with one leaving the yard). As was the case during his minor league days however, he did post an empty walk tally with a 5/0 K/BB ratio. It’s not that Rooker can’t be an OBP guy, but there’s a lot of swing and miss to his profile as well.

 

Rounding out the trio of talented options is Trevor Larnach. Another first round selection, the former Oregon State Beaver is knocking on the door in his own right. He too isn’t considered a centerfield candidate, but he’s also the least like to move to first base or designated hitter. The bat power is elite, and Baseball Prospectus had him as a top 50 prospect heading into 2020. He owns an .853 professional OPS and was at .842 in just over 40 Double-A games during 2019. Despite the lack of minor league season, his abilities are advanced, and he should be an option early in 2021.

 

What Minnesota does to handle this trio could be one of the most important decisions in their immediate future. It already appears as if Alex Kirilloff has seen his last days in a minor league uniform, and Brent Rooker did nothing to warrant a step back either. Kirilloff could open as Minnesota’s left fielder to kick off 2021, and Rooker’s role expands if Nelson Cruz is not retained. How Larnach fits will be interesting to see, but you can bet he’s ready to kick that door in.

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will likely always need to have a strong backup plan for if and when Byron Buxton’s aggressive style lands him on the shelf. Until that happens though, none of these guys are players solely needing to come up and sit. LaMonte Wade Jr. and Jake Cave are both great backup options, but neither is the horse you want to tie a buggy too. The Twins have a group of corner guys ready to take over, and how they deploy them all is a narrative worth watching.

 

Rooker, Larnach, and Kirilloff couldn’t have less similar backgrounds being separated by accomplishments at the collegiate and high school level. They’ve all turned heads on a pro field though, and you can bet than Minnesota will be looking to make that a constant reality at Target Field for many years to come.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Midseason 2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects


It’s really weird to be providing a midseason update on Minnesota Twins prospects when not only has a Major League game not been played, but the Minor League season is all but cancelled as well. There hasn’t been anything of substance to look at, although my thoughts on a few players have shifted.

I can’t say that I derived anything of considerable substance from the week I spent watching back fields action down in Fort Myers, but there’s also been a (very brief) Major League Baseball draft that put some fresh talent into the organization as well. 2020 has been anything but normal, so let’s embrace the goofiness and get underway with the rankings.


15. Wander Javier SS

Losing a full season of Minor League Baseball may hurt no one in the Twins system more than it does Wander Javier. An elite talent who has fallen completely off the map since Rookie Ball, Javier is coming off a dismal .601 OPS with Cedar Rapids in 2019. He’s still just 21, but a year of missed development and wanting to distance himself from a season ago isn’t ideal.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

I really like Canterino and think he can continue to push up these rankings as a relatively high floor prospect. He’ll be 23 next season, but he put in a very impressive showing to start his pro career. Working 25 innings after 99 in college is a nice taste, and clearly the Twins were impressed skipping him over the Appy League. He should start at High-A Fort Myers in 2021.

13. Gilberto Celestino OF

Part of the package returned for Ryan Pressly, Celestino was originally viewed through the lens of being a plus defender. While that remains true, he reached High-A Fort Myers last season and posted a .759 OPS. The 10 home runs were a nice bit of power, and if that comes along with his speed and defensive abilities, he’ll rocket up this board. There’s clearly a reason why Minnesota wanted him on the 40 man this winter.


12. Matt Wallner OF

I’m higher on Wallner than most I think, but he is a bit more than the traditional booming bat the Twins have. There’s athleticism here and he can play on the corners in the outfield. His arm is massive, so right field makes a lot of sense. He was already looking like an advanced hitter, so the wiping out of 2020 may not hurt him as much. There’s always fallback potential here that he could get on the mound.

11. Aaron Sabato 1B


Continuing the mold of targeting thunderous bats, Minnesota went with arguably the best power hitter in the draft during 2020. Sabato can launch the baseball, and he’ll absolutely have to with little to now defensive value. The expectation is a big leaguer at worst here, with some serious thump as a consistent and regular producer.


10. Brent Rooker 1B/OF

Rooker could see time on a taxi-squad for the Twins in 2020, and it’s not hard to wonder on as his bat is ready. There’s uncertainty as to where he’ll play given mixed reports on abilities in the outfield and at first base, but the bat should hold its own. He’s got a different build than Sabato, but all of the same power is there.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS


Keeping Cavaco back for me is just how lost he looked at the plate in his debut season. The K/BB ration was nightmarish, and that’s the bigger story than where his slash line was for me. I think he really needed to get back on the diamond and in the swing of things for some positive steps forward. Obviously, this is still a first round talent, but it’s a wait and see approach for me.


8. Ryan Jeffers C

One of the biggest movers nationally in the Twins system has been Jeffers. He went from a bat first player that may not be able to catch, and now is considered multi-faceted within the organization. The receiving and throwing skills have sharpened, and nothing has slowed down with the bat. Like Rooker, Jeffers could be on the taxi squad for the Twins, and probably is a better option behind Alex Avila in the hole than Willians Astudillo.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

Minnesota saved money on some earlier picks to grab Enlow given the promise they saw in him. So far that’s been greatly rewarded. He’s been a consistent arm, and while not dominant, has gotten it done at every level. Would like to see a few more strikeouts, but there’s a mid-rotation upside here. Another guy that could factor in depending on how big minor league depth goes for 2020.

6. Lewis Thorpe LHP

2020 was going to be a big year for Thorpe and it’s taken on quite a different shape. He was away from Spring Training getting reset for a couple of weeks and then look ticketed for Triple-A Rochester. With the situation as it is now, he could be an extra long man out of the pen. His stuff was better than the numbers said in 2019, and I think there’s legit stuff to dream on from the Aussie lefty.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

The way 2020 has gone, and the limited season may actually accelerate Duran’s pro debut. I assumed it would come this year, but that wasn’t a lock. Expanded taxi squads and roster could certainly make an arm this good worthy of a relief look. He’s going to start in a traditional year. The near triple-digit stuff plays from the get-go. Bring him in as a middle reliever might be a nice boost for Rocco Baldelli, however.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

I’d bet heavily on Larnach showing up at the Major League level in 2020. He’s an advanced hitter and works the zone well. He’s held his own during Spring Training action and watching him launch a ball on his first big league at bat was a lot of fun. He’s the most likely of the Twins power prospects to remain in the outfield. Good athleticism, although it will play better on the corners.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

This season will present somewhat of a weird spot for Balazovic. I think he’s best utilized as a starter and not sure how much his stuff plays up in the pen. He’s got a legitimate shot to be top half rotation arm and pairing him with Jose Berrios down the road could be lots of fun. The Canadian has received lots of praise in the past calendar year and the stuff absolutely warrants it.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Plenty can still make the argument that Minnesota’s top two prospects are interchangeable. I have Kirilloff second because once he moves off an outfield spot (as he already has) first base provides less value. He’s a pure hitter, he’s going to hit for average, and the power will be there as well. He was going to be ready at some point in 2020, and no we’ll likely see it sooner rather than later.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Lots of ups and downs for Lewis on the farm last year, but he ended on fire as the Arizona Fall League MVP. There’s going to be concerns about the leg kick until he consistently puts it together, and plenty still wonder if he’s not better suited for centerfield. Regardless, he’s going to play a premium position and looks the part of a perennial All-Star.

Monday, June 3, 2019

The 2018 Draft: Where Are They Now?


Tonight the 2019 Major League Baseball draft kicks off with the first round. Minnesota will make their lone selection at the 13th pick, and while that doesn’t include the hype of a #1 selection like Royce Lewis, there’s plenty of talent to be had in that spot. For the best team in baseball, who also employ one of the strongest farm systems, this is about strengthening the future. Amateurs will be able to take another step towards the goal, and the organization can execute a plan months and years in the making.

Before getting to know some of the newest names entering Twins Territory, it’s worth taking a quick look back at where the players selected a year ago are today. Minnesota had nine selections in the top 10 last year. Here’s how they’re doing:

Trevor Larnach OF (1-20)

Larnach got to Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2018 before starting this year at High-A Fort Myers. He got off to a slow start for the Miracle but has been on a tear of late and now owns a .304/.377/.479 slash line on the season. The bat has looked impressive in every stop and given his advanced hitting profile at Oregon State there’s no reason to believe he won’t be at Double-A Pensacola in short order.

Ryan Jeffers C (2-59)

Like Larnach, Jeffers ended 2018 at Cedar Rapids and began this season at Fort Myers. Initially splitting time behind the dish with fellow prospect Ben Rortvedt, Jeffers has now assumed the role of the guy. He has a .281/.347/.431 slash line and has looked the part behind the plate. Some scouts were concerned about his ability to stay at catcher, but so far results have been encouraging. Power should also play a bit more which will help to raise the current SLG profile.

DaShawn Keirsey OF (4-124)

Unfortunately for Keirsey, a significant amount of his pro career has been spent on the Injured List. He’s played in just 42 games since being drafted and is currently at Low-A Cedar Rapids. He put up a respectable .798 OPS for Elizabethton last season, but there’s little to go off from a sample size here.

Cole Sands RHP (5-154)

Quite the steal in the 5th round, Sands has enjoyed a strong 2019. He didn’t pitch after the draft last year but has already earned a promotion to High-A Fort Myers. Across eight starts for Cedar Rapids Sands posted a 3.05 ERA with 10.7 K/9. Recently the former Seminole twirled a strong debut start for the Miracle. This is a prospect whose arrow is pointing straight up.

Charles Mack SS (6-184)

After the draft Mack was assigned to the GCL. He got in 30 games with a .588 OPS as an 18-year-old. He’s in Extended Spring Training right now and will play in one of the short-season leagues for the Twins. This was a long-term play and Mack is still working on development.

Josh Winder RHP (7-214)

After pitching for short-season Elizabethton in 2018 Winder began 2019 with the Kernels. He owns a 2.98 ERA across his first nine starts and has a sparkly 1.086 WHIP. He’s not currently a big-time strikeout arm, but more of that may come. He’s been among one of the best starters for Cedar Rapids and certainly could push for time with Fort Myers yet this season.

Chris Williams C/1B (8-244)

All Williams has done is hit since being drafted. The former Clemson Tiger posted an .872 OPS with Elizabethton in his first 62 games last season and has followed it up with an .860 OPS through 37 games with Cedar Rapids this year. Williams blasted 15 dingers in 2018 and has reached eight thus far on the season. A strong plate discipline is evidenced by his K/BB ratio, and any increase on his batting average would have him pushing that OPS into elite territory.

Willie Joe Garry Jr. OF (9-274)

Garry Jr. was one of the more impressive looking athletes this spring down in Fort Myers. He played in the GCL last season following the draft and posted a .476 OPS in 33 games. Just recently turning 19-years-old, there’s plenty of time for this development cycle to take place. Right now, he’s in EST and will play for one of the short-season teams.

Regi Grace RHP (10-304)

Another high-school pick by the Twins, Grace pitched in six games for the GCL club last year. He posted a 5.06 ERA across just 10.2 IP. There isn’t much of a sample size to analyze here, but that will change as he gets another taste of short-season ball under his belt. Grace has a strong trunk and lower half. Expecting him to add velocity in the coming years in a pretty good bet.