In 2015, the Minnesota Twins saw the year of the position player. With Eddie Rosario leading the charge during spring training, and into the regular season, Paul Molitor watched as his 25 man roster was transformed with youth. One of baseball's best farm systems is far from depleted after a handful of graduations, but growth now needs to take place. For two former first round picks, the year ahead couldn't be any more important.
Enter Kohl Stewart and Travis Harrison.
Earlier this week, Jim Crikket highlighted both of these two players in his Prospects of Top Prospects piece. His assessment was that while both have a pedigree of performing, and have struggled through professional hiccups thus far, a resurgence is coming. While I'd like to find myself on that side of the fence, I'm not quite as sure as to what's next for both former first round picks.
The latter was the 50th overall pick by the Twins in the 2011 Major League Baseball draft. Hailing from Tustin High School in California, Harrison was drafted as a third basemen that could potentially shift to the outfield. To date in his professional career, he's stuck at a single level every season, and generally played against players as much as two years older than himself.
Through 433 minor league games, Harrison has compiled a slash line of .261/.366/.391. While not dreadful by any means, it's disappointing to note that the development hasn't followed the expected path. Player either infield or outfield on the corners, Harrison was expected to generate more pop with his bat. After a 15 home run season at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2013, he's followed that performance up by hitting just three and five long balls at Fort Myers and Chattanooga respectively.
Looking at him as a whole, Harrison does a handful of things well. He's taken more than 60 walks each of the past three seasons, and he has clubbed more than 20 doubles at each of his last three stops as well. What's working against the former high school draftee is that he hasn't developed into doing anything exceptionally. Playing positions with organizational depth, he's at a point where he could get lost behind better talent.
Should Minnesota continue the trajectory that has followed Harrison thus far, he should be playing his age 23 season at Triple-A Rochester. Once again significantly younger than much of the competition, he'll have to show he can handle himself. In the outfield in upstate New York, he'll have plenty of battery mates. The signings of Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni, Ryan Sweeney, and Carlos Quentin all need fall in somewhere. Those names also don't include the likely promotion of Double-A teammate Adam Brett Walker.
For Harrison, the year ahead is a critical one. Having now filled into his body, production at the next level will be about taking a significant step forward. Can he flash some exceptional ability in a few different categories that help him force his way into the Twins future plans. Not looking to get bench players that high in the draft, Minnesota is no doubt hoping it happens.
That brings us to the former player, and one whose situation is also much more dire. Kohl Stewart, the 4th overall pick out of St. Pius X High School in Texas during the 2013 Major League Baseball Draft, is at a much more significant crossroads. Having the pedigree of a top five pick, expectations for the pitcher were through the roof, and they haven't been close to being met.
Stewart's first 20 professional innings, spent in the Appalachian and Gulf Coast Leagues, were dominant as expected. He totaled just a 1.35 ERA and struck out 10.8 batters per nine innings. From there though, the story differs. Pitching in 87 innings at Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014, Stewart's arm went through it's first issues. There were injuries due to should fatigue, and his electrifying stuff produced just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. His 2.59 ERA was still sparkling, but the secondary numbers all left a significant amount to be desired.
Heading into the 2015 season, Stewart made tweaks in his workout routine in hopes of conditioning himself for professional baseball. A Texas A&M quarterback recruit, he had spent a significant amount of time focusing on football, and throwing one, in his not so distant past. His belief was that a new throwing program would help to elevate his game during the 2015 season, while also providing him a more clean bill of health.
Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Stewart played all of 2015 with High-A Fort Myers, throwing a career high 129.1 innings. His ERA remained solid at 3.20, but his peripherals once again took a step backwards. In the Florida State League, Kohl fanned just 4.9 batters per nine innings, while walking a career high 3.1 per nine. His 134 hits surrendered put him over a hit per inning, and his 1.384 WHIP was no longer reflective of the dominant prospect he was billed as.
Having peaked on prospect lists at number 28 overall by Baseball Prospectus, Stewart has dropped out of the top 100 all together heading into 2016. His declining strikeout rates along with arm concerns have gained more recognition than anyone would have hoped. There's no doubt the year ahead is a massive one for the Texas native.
Whether Stewart heads to Double-A Chattanooga out of spring training, or is handed a locker for a brief time in Fort Myers, he's going to need to distance himself from his previous two seasons worth of results. Once projected as a top of the rotation arm, Stewart is trending in the wrong direction. To right the ship, sparking his strikeout totals while staying healthy no doubt has to be the focus in the year ahead.
For the Twins, the farm system is still filled with a ton of depth talent that should contribute at the major league level. What Terry Ryan can't have however, is first round picks that end up not panning out. Both Harrison and Stewart are no doubt on board with wanting more from themselves, the year ahead is one in which we should see what happens next.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
The Twins Crossroads At Second
When looking at the projected 25 man roster leaving Fort Myers for the Minnesota Twins, you would be hard pressed to find a player considered more of a lock than Brian Dozier. Minnesota gave Dozier a four-year, $20 million extension just a year ago, and he remains one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. What Dozier's situation does do is present a crossroads for the players behind him.
Although depth is something the Twins seemingly have throughout the organization, the focus behind Dozier no doubt has to be on Jorge Polanco.
The Twins commitment to Dozier is an interesting one. The extension was signed at a very reasonable $5 million on an average annual basis. The club bought out Dozier's arbitration years, but did not buy into any of his free agency eligibility. Set to become a free agent at age 32 in 2019, the Twins will have another decision to make at that point.
In the first season of his newly signed deal, Dozier rewarded the Twins by turning in his first All-Star performance. Garnering a handful of MVP votes as well, the Mississippi native turned in career high numbers in games played (157), hits (148), doubles (39), homers (28), runs batted in (77), and slugging percentage (.444). Following up his 4.7 fWAR season in 2014, Dozier gave the Twins another productive year compiling a 3.4 fWAR mark.
No matter how you look at it, the Twins are nowhere near a point of moving on from the late-peaking 28 year-old. That then turns the focus to Polanco.
One of the youngest ever to debut in a Twins uniform, Jorge Polanco first showed up in the major leagues during the 2014 season. At 20 years-old, his five games worth of exposure were a testament to just how real Minnesota believes his talent to be. Across the minor leagues, his bat has flashed major league potential, and it's in the season ahead that it should truly take center stage.
Polanco has been playing in the Twins organization since 2010 as a 16 year-old in the Dominican League. Across six minor league seasons, he's put together a career .288/.348/.404 slash line. Not a home run threat, his speed has played up in recent seasons stealing 17 or more bases each of the past two seasons. He's flashed gap power and should be a doubles threat, with the ability to stretch for the extra base. Tough to strike out, Polanco has never fanned more than 90 times in a season, and he taken walks about half as often as he's struck out. Putting it simply, Polanco's bat is ready.
Where things get problematic for the next step with Polanco is on the defensive side. A second basemen for 240 plus games in the Twins system, the only position he's played more has been shortstop (350 games). Minnesota no doubt would like Polanco to play the left side of the diamond for positioning purposes, but it has continued to be a square peg in a round hole type of fit. He has less than ideal arm strength, and has made 63 errors in 221 games over the past two seasons at the position.
Welcome to the conundrum facing the Twins. With his bat, Polanco has proven ready for the next step, but his positional inability has held him back. He'll likely see the bulk of his time in 2016 at Triple-A Rochester, but for an advanced hitter, Minnesota could see him regress or plateau as a lack of challenge is presented.
Looking at what other options Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins brain trust have, it can't be ignored that the trade front may provide the best avenue. What's unfortunate is that many organizations have a guy similar to a Jorge Polanco. He won't be the centerpiece in any deal with a significant return, but is more than a throw in when compiling a package to trade away. Considering the options Minnesota has, planning out the long term scope of Polanco with the projection of belief for Dozier is something that should be considered sooner rather than later.
With Eduardo Nunez still arbitration eligible a year from now, a super utility type fit for Polanco doesn't seem to be in the cards either. As Brian Dozier continues to hold down his role, and Polanco continues to fumble through the shortstop situation, options continue to become less visible. A nice player without a true fit, we're approaching a time to get creative.
No doubt a young team like the Twins is in a position to appreciate talent. Their is a line that has to be toed somewhere between hoarding it, and using it to your benefit however.
Although depth is something the Twins seemingly have throughout the organization, the focus behind Dozier no doubt has to be on Jorge Polanco.
The Twins commitment to Dozier is an interesting one. The extension was signed at a very reasonable $5 million on an average annual basis. The club bought out Dozier's arbitration years, but did not buy into any of his free agency eligibility. Set to become a free agent at age 32 in 2019, the Twins will have another decision to make at that point.
In the first season of his newly signed deal, Dozier rewarded the Twins by turning in his first All-Star performance. Garnering a handful of MVP votes as well, the Mississippi native turned in career high numbers in games played (157), hits (148), doubles (39), homers (28), runs batted in (77), and slugging percentage (.444). Following up his 4.7 fWAR season in 2014, Dozier gave the Twins another productive year compiling a 3.4 fWAR mark.
No matter how you look at it, the Twins are nowhere near a point of moving on from the late-peaking 28 year-old. That then turns the focus to Polanco.
One of the youngest ever to debut in a Twins uniform, Jorge Polanco first showed up in the major leagues during the 2014 season. At 20 years-old, his five games worth of exposure were a testament to just how real Minnesota believes his talent to be. Across the minor leagues, his bat has flashed major league potential, and it's in the season ahead that it should truly take center stage.
Polanco has been playing in the Twins organization since 2010 as a 16 year-old in the Dominican League. Across six minor league seasons, he's put together a career .288/.348/.404 slash line. Not a home run threat, his speed has played up in recent seasons stealing 17 or more bases each of the past two seasons. He's flashed gap power and should be a doubles threat, with the ability to stretch for the extra base. Tough to strike out, Polanco has never fanned more than 90 times in a season, and he taken walks about half as often as he's struck out. Putting it simply, Polanco's bat is ready.
Where things get problematic for the next step with Polanco is on the defensive side. A second basemen for 240 plus games in the Twins system, the only position he's played more has been shortstop (350 games). Minnesota no doubt would like Polanco to play the left side of the diamond for positioning purposes, but it has continued to be a square peg in a round hole type of fit. He has less than ideal arm strength, and has made 63 errors in 221 games over the past two seasons at the position.
Welcome to the conundrum facing the Twins. With his bat, Polanco has proven ready for the next step, but his positional inability has held him back. He'll likely see the bulk of his time in 2016 at Triple-A Rochester, but for an advanced hitter, Minnesota could see him regress or plateau as a lack of challenge is presented.
Looking at what other options Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor, and the Twins brain trust have, it can't be ignored that the trade front may provide the best avenue. What's unfortunate is that many organizations have a guy similar to a Jorge Polanco. He won't be the centerpiece in any deal with a significant return, but is more than a throw in when compiling a package to trade away. Considering the options Minnesota has, planning out the long term scope of Polanco with the projection of belief for Dozier is something that should be considered sooner rather than later.
With Eduardo Nunez still arbitration eligible a year from now, a super utility type fit for Polanco doesn't seem to be in the cards either. As Brian Dozier continues to hold down his role, and Polanco continues to fumble through the shortstop situation, options continue to become less visible. A nice player without a true fit, we're approaching a time to get creative.
No doubt a young team like the Twins is in a position to appreciate talent. Their is a line that has to be toed somewhere between hoarding it, and using it to your benefit however.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
The Final Untouchable Number
42. Baseball and non-baseball fans alike know that the number was that of the late, great Jackie Robinson. The man that broke the color barrier in our nation's pastime made it famous. It's worn by no one, but in April each year, is worn by everyone. It's symbolic, and it adorns each Major League Baseball stadium throughout the country. 42, the number and the man, are among elite territory. There is however, one other number and man worthy of the same celebration.
Enter Roberto Enrique Clemente Walker.
As February begins, so too does Black History Month. With baseball becoming a game that continues to celebrate its diversity, now seems as pertinent of a time as ever to make the argument. Clemente, a native Puerto Rican and ambassador for nations around Latin America and the Caribbean, was as much an amazing baseball player as he was a human being.
Following his death, Clemente was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on March 30, 1973 garnering 92% of the vote. His career numbers totaled exactly 3,000 hits, over 200 home runs, a career average of .317, all while being a 12 time All-Star, 12 time Gold Glove winner, and once a league MVP. His 18 years of professional experience all spent with the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone down as some of the best the sport has ever witnessed.
Mentioned previously though, more importantly than who Clemente was on the diamond, was who he was off of it. Forever remembered by baseball, his namesake was placed on the Roberto Clemente Award. Each season a player with outstanding baseball skills as well as being personally involved in the community is recognized. The award is a virtual hat tip of Clemente commending a current player for striving to be even a semblance of what he once was.
Throughout his life, Clemente understood that the game was just that, and his purpose was much more. Offering of his time, talents, and treasures, he routinely made trips back to Latin America to better people whose situation he knew so well. Although continuing to perfect his craft in the game of baseball was of the utmost importance, it was also in the charity work he did that Clemente continued to push himself forth as a person.
A well documented and extremely sad end to a very young life, Clemente was aboard a plane that crashed into the Atlantic Ocean on December 31, 1972. Ensuring the delivery of relief supplies to earthquake victims in Nicaragua, Clemente's death was much of the same cloth as in the way he lived.
Now more than 40 years following his passing, we should be asking for more from baseball when it comes to one of its best ever. The number 21 should become synonymous with that of Jackie Robinson's 42. Adorning stadiums around the country, and retired by each team, a day in which we remember that being a great person is so much more important than being a great baseball player is a legacy that Clemente would have been proud of.
Dilution is something that can no doubt be a realm to tip toe around when it comes to retired jerseys. Robinson's accomplishments should never be overshadowed by anyone that steps into the ring with him, but this is what seemingly presents a perfect opportunity. Robinson and Clemente represent some of the best things the sport of baseball has to offer, and their celebration on a yearly occurrence, along with the reverence of their numerical retirement, should coexist harmoniously in a very logical way.
Whether it happens this year, or sometime far down the road, Roberto Clemente forever being called upon by the game he gave so much to is something that should no doubt be considered.
Enter Roberto Enrique Clemente Walker.
As February begins, so too does Black History Month. With baseball becoming a game that continues to celebrate its diversity, now seems as pertinent of a time as ever to make the argument. Clemente, a native Puerto Rican and ambassador for nations around Latin America and the Caribbean, was as much an amazing baseball player as he was a human being.
Following his death, Clemente was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on March 30, 1973 garnering 92% of the vote. His career numbers totaled exactly 3,000 hits, over 200 home runs, a career average of .317, all while being a 12 time All-Star, 12 time Gold Glove winner, and once a league MVP. His 18 years of professional experience all spent with the Pittsburgh Pirates have gone down as some of the best the sport has ever witnessed.
Mentioned previously though, more importantly than who Clemente was on the diamond, was who he was off of it. Forever remembered by baseball, his namesake was placed on the Roberto Clemente Award. Each season a player with outstanding baseball skills as well as being personally involved in the community is recognized. The award is a virtual hat tip of Clemente commending a current player for striving to be even a semblance of what he once was.
Throughout his life, Clemente understood that the game was just that, and his purpose was much more. Offering of his time, talents, and treasures, he routinely made trips back to Latin America to better people whose situation he knew so well. Although continuing to perfect his craft in the game of baseball was of the utmost importance, it was also in the charity work he did that Clemente continued to push himself forth as a person.
A well documented and extremely sad end to a very young life, Clemente was aboard a plane that crashed into the Atlantic Ocean on December 31, 1972. Ensuring the delivery of relief supplies to earthquake victims in Nicaragua, Clemente's death was much of the same cloth as in the way he lived.
Now more than 40 years following his passing, we should be asking for more from baseball when it comes to one of its best ever. The number 21 should become synonymous with that of Jackie Robinson's 42. Adorning stadiums around the country, and retired by each team, a day in which we remember that being a great person is so much more important than being a great baseball player is a legacy that Clemente would have been proud of.
Dilution is something that can no doubt be a realm to tip toe around when it comes to retired jerseys. Robinson's accomplishments should never be overshadowed by anyone that steps into the ring with him, but this is what seemingly presents a perfect opportunity. Robinson and Clemente represent some of the best things the sport of baseball has to offer, and their celebration on a yearly occurrence, along with the reverence of their numerical retirement, should coexist harmoniously in a very logical way.
Whether it happens this year, or sometime far down the road, Roberto Clemente forever being called upon by the game he gave so much to is something that should no doubt be considered.
What's Left For Ricky Nolasco?
In part, the question has a very simple answer. What's left for Ricky Nolasco is two years and $24 million (with at least a $1 million buyout in year three), at least on a contractual level. The question really is, what's left for Nolasco when it comes to performance going forward? That question is much more difficult to answer, but there are a few clues to consider.
First and foremost, it's worth noting that Nolasco's role appears certain to change for the Twins in 2016. When looking at the starting rotation options, Nolasco can't find himself any higher than sixth on the list. He appears destined for a relief role, even if he's not ready to succumb to that fact. Pitching out of the bullpen could actually benefit Nolasco's wear and tear as well as his production however.
Since signing with the Twins in 2014, Nolasco has pitched in just 196.1 innings. In that time, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA in 35 starts, and owns a 4.15 FIP. His K/9 rate checks in at 6.9 (just below his career average) and his 2.4 BB/9 is just above where he's been for his career. Essentially one full season worth of work, Nolasco has been as bad as he's ever been, and significantly worse than the mediocre to average pitcher he was once in the National League.
Across his career, Nolasco has had standout seasons just a couple of times. Most notably in 2009 and 2013 with the Marlins (and briefly the Dodgers), he posted fWAR numbers of 4.1 and 3.2 respectively. What jumps off the page in that time is just how good Nolasco's slider was.
In 2009, the pitch was worth 9.7 wSL (slider runs above average per PITCHf/x). In 2013, when he was dealt to Los Angeles, it was worth an even better 13.2 wSL. Both of those numbers are easily the best of his career. When looking at the last two seasons with the Twins, Nolasco's slider has been worth -8.0 and 1.1 wSL respectively. The pitch, when working, has kept hitters of balance and no doubt been Nolasco's go to.
When looking at what has gone wrong, it's interesting to note that contact rates haven't really plagued the lifetime National Leaguer. In 2015 (albeit in a small sample size) Nolasco generated the second highest soft contact rate of his career at 20.3%. He did allow a career worst 32.5% hard contact in 2014 with the Twins, and that no doubt played into batters enjoying a very nice .351 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For Nolasco though, the issues seem much simpler.
Far too often in his time with the Twins, Nolasco has failed to generate critical strikes. No more important than the first pitch of at-bat, Nolasco has posted his two worst first pitch strike totals of his career in back to back years. In 2014, he threw a strike to start an at-bat just 57.7% of the time, and a year ago, that number was an ugly 52.0%. Having to pitch himself back into counts, and play into a hitter's hands, Nolasco was generally fighting against himself. Generating swinging strikes just 9.15% of the time as a Twin, he's put together a recipe for disaster.
As things trended downhill for the Twins during their 90 loss seasons, a staple of what Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson were once about had gone by the wayside. Getting ahead in counts and pounding the strike zone seemed much more likely the oddity rather than the norm. Nolasco is an embodiment of that continuing to take place, and it's no doubt plagued him to the tune of two very poor years with Minnesota.
With the reality that the bullpen appears to be his 2016 home, a change in execution is an absolute must for the California native. Despite not walking batters, Nolasco absolutely can't afford to fall behind in relief. The reality is that if he can reverse course on his current trend, things could actually turn around for the Twins $49 million man.
Velocity wise, Nolasco has still thrown his fastballs over 90 miles per hour each year of his career. Although his slider has lost some heat, the usage out of the pen could be helpful in providing a boost. Being utilized in short stretches and brief inning by inning periods, Nolasco could likely reinvent himself in the year ahead. Although the relief role may not be one he continues to operate in, or even finish his career with, it could be the key to bringing back part of his former self.
By all measures, the Twins over-extended themselves on an average National League arm in the first place. They have been rewarded by a guy that has fallen behind in counts and been burned by it. To get him back on track, his slider needs to snap once again, and hitters need to believe they will be challenged early. At this point, the Twins are already swimmimg upstream, but generating something from the 2014 product is a must.
Betting on Ricky Nolasco at this point is far from the best idea, but it's clear there's a path to success that can be executed upon.
First and foremost, it's worth noting that Nolasco's role appears certain to change for the Twins in 2016. When looking at the starting rotation options, Nolasco can't find himself any higher than sixth on the list. He appears destined for a relief role, even if he's not ready to succumb to that fact. Pitching out of the bullpen could actually benefit Nolasco's wear and tear as well as his production however.
Since signing with the Twins in 2014, Nolasco has pitched in just 196.1 innings. In that time, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA in 35 starts, and owns a 4.15 FIP. His K/9 rate checks in at 6.9 (just below his career average) and his 2.4 BB/9 is just above where he's been for his career. Essentially one full season worth of work, Nolasco has been as bad as he's ever been, and significantly worse than the mediocre to average pitcher he was once in the National League.
Across his career, Nolasco has had standout seasons just a couple of times. Most notably in 2009 and 2013 with the Marlins (and briefly the Dodgers), he posted fWAR numbers of 4.1 and 3.2 respectively. What jumps off the page in that time is just how good Nolasco's slider was.
In 2009, the pitch was worth 9.7 wSL (slider runs above average per PITCHf/x). In 2013, when he was dealt to Los Angeles, it was worth an even better 13.2 wSL. Both of those numbers are easily the best of his career. When looking at the last two seasons with the Twins, Nolasco's slider has been worth -8.0 and 1.1 wSL respectively. The pitch, when working, has kept hitters of balance and no doubt been Nolasco's go to.
When looking at what has gone wrong, it's interesting to note that contact rates haven't really plagued the lifetime National Leaguer. In 2015 (albeit in a small sample size) Nolasco generated the second highest soft contact rate of his career at 20.3%. He did allow a career worst 32.5% hard contact in 2014 with the Twins, and that no doubt played into batters enjoying a very nice .351 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For Nolasco though, the issues seem much simpler.
Far too often in his time with the Twins, Nolasco has failed to generate critical strikes. No more important than the first pitch of at-bat, Nolasco has posted his two worst first pitch strike totals of his career in back to back years. In 2014, he threw a strike to start an at-bat just 57.7% of the time, and a year ago, that number was an ugly 52.0%. Having to pitch himself back into counts, and play into a hitter's hands, Nolasco was generally fighting against himself. Generating swinging strikes just 9.15% of the time as a Twin, he's put together a recipe for disaster.
As things trended downhill for the Twins during their 90 loss seasons, a staple of what Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson were once about had gone by the wayside. Getting ahead in counts and pounding the strike zone seemed much more likely the oddity rather than the norm. Nolasco is an embodiment of that continuing to take place, and it's no doubt plagued him to the tune of two very poor years with Minnesota.
With the reality that the bullpen appears to be his 2016 home, a change in execution is an absolute must for the California native. Despite not walking batters, Nolasco absolutely can't afford to fall behind in relief. The reality is that if he can reverse course on his current trend, things could actually turn around for the Twins $49 million man.
Velocity wise, Nolasco has still thrown his fastballs over 90 miles per hour each year of his career. Although his slider has lost some heat, the usage out of the pen could be helpful in providing a boost. Being utilized in short stretches and brief inning by inning periods, Nolasco could likely reinvent himself in the year ahead. Although the relief role may not be one he continues to operate in, or even finish his career with, it could be the key to bringing back part of his former self.
By all measures, the Twins over-extended themselves on an average National League arm in the first place. They have been rewarded by a guy that has fallen behind in counts and been burned by it. To get him back on track, his slider needs to snap once again, and hitters need to believe they will be challenged early. At this point, the Twins are already swimmimg upstream, but generating something from the 2014 product is a must.
Betting on Ricky Nolasco at this point is far from the best idea, but it's clear there's a path to success that can be executed upon.
Monday, February 1, 2016
Who Carries The 2016 Twins?
It's just February, but making predictions far after things play out isn't much of a leap. With Twins Fest now in the books, and the next big event for the club being Spring Training, it's time to take a look at what lies ahead. The Diamond Awards recently acknowledged the best of the organization for the year that was. This is a stab at who ends up being recognized for a great 2016 season.
Bounce Back Pitcher Of The Year- Alex Meyer
Few players had a more rough 2015 season than Meyer. After being Baseball Prospectus' 14th rated prospect, things went incredibly downhill for the former Kentucky Wildcat. He transitioned to a full time relief role, and his debut in the big leagues lasted all of two games.
In his second year at Triple-A Rochester, Meyer posted a 4.79 ERA (over a run worse than 2014), along with another increased walk rate (4.7 BB/9). Meyer actually kept the ball in the yard more often (just 4 HR allowed as opposed to 10 in 2014), but issued far too many free passes. He continued to strike out a healthy amount of batters however, posting a 9.8 K/9.
Entering 2016, Meyer should have a legitimate shot to compete for the Opening Day bullpen. He's got stuff that should play up even more in relief, and could prove to stabilize a shaky Twins pen. Deserving of a September call-up that didn't come, Meyer posted a 0.46 ERA in his final nine games of 2015 (19.2 IP). Across those frames, he allowed opposing hitters to slash a paltry .174/.275/.188 off of him. I believe Meyer is going to see things click in the year ahead, and everyone will be better for it.
Bounce Back Hitter Of The Year- Oswaldo Arcia
If there's something that Arcia is going to offer the Twins, it's absolutely going to have to come with his bat. An abomination in the outfield, Arcia has now been surpassed on the positional depth chart by infield transplant Miguel Sano. Out of options however, the Twins will no doubt include Arcia on the 25 man roster.
A season ago, the slugging Venezuelan saw action in just 19 big league games. Over that time, albeit a small sample size, he posted his best average (.276) and on-base percentage (.338). He's a year removed from a 20 home run season, and that's something the Twins need him to get back to. Outside of a torrid home run stretch at Triple-A, Arcia slashed an ugly .199/.257/.372.
Expect Minnesota to give Arcia every chance to prove it. Just 24 years old, and still with plenty of power, Arcia's potential remains too much to give up on. He should see the field in limited action behind Sano, and the biggest key needs to be plate discipline. After swinging and missing far too often early on, a heightened contact rate could immediately push him back into the conversation among the Twins best young assets.
Minor League Pitcher Of The Year- Stephen Gonsalves
A season ago, the award went to the Twins top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios. It's Gonsalves who could end up stealing the spotlight from the likes of Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart in 2016 however. Likely slated to start his year at High-A Fort Myers, expecting him to stay there long is probably a fool's wish.
Through his three year professional career, Gonsalves has advanced two levels each season. After dominating Low-A Cedar Rapids to the tune of a 1.15 ERA in 2015, Gonsalves followed that up with a 2.61 ERA at High-A. His strikeout rate dipped considerably after his promotion (12.6 K/9 at A 6.2 K/9 at A+), but that could be attributed to an adjustment period.
Now 21 years old, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Gonsalves took a path similar to Berrios in the year ahead. A short stint at Fort Myers, followed by the bulk of the season being played at Chattanooga, and then a finale for Rochester would make a decent amount of sense. As a lefty who is far more dominant than crafty,. Gonsalves is continually pushing his ceiling, and he's begun to garner some serious national attention.
Minor League Hitter Of The Year- Jorge Polanco
Looking at the state of Twins positional prospects, the farm system has all but flipped the script. A year ago it was the offensively contributing prospects that debuted at Target Field. In 2016, pitching becomes the focal point with hitters left to emerge on their own. I expect Polanco to do exactly that.
Starting at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, Polanco turned in a solid .289/.346/.393 slash line. He flashed some power launching six homers, and his extra base ability was witnessed in his 17 doubles. Although there's some very real questions about whether or not Polanco will ever play the field good enough to not be a liability, his bat appears all but ready.
I have some serious concerns about Polanco getting bored on the farm, and stunting his development in the very near future. Blocked by Brian Dozier and without a true path to get to the big leagues regularly, forcing the Twins hand with his bat seems like a good bet. Whether or not Polanco becomes expendable remains to be seen, but I'm going to bet on him to hit in the year ahead.
MLB Pitcher Of The Year- Kyle Gibson
I went back and forth on this one for a while, as I believe Trevor May is going to truly be something special out of the bullpen. My selection of Gibson though is a testament to the step up I see him making in the year ahead. Gibson was already good in 2015, but 2016 should see him become great.
After posting a sub 4.00 ERA (3.84) and a 6.7 K/9 (career high) last season, Gibson has set the bar pretty high. He should be capable of driving that ERA down even further, and while the strikeouts may slip some, he's going to be really good. A late-bloomer due to injury, Gibson is entering his prime and set to do some impressive things during it. The former first round pick has the ability to push towards the top of the rotation, and the Twins will no doubt be better for it.
At the conclusion of the 2016 season, suggesting Gibson as the staff ace even with a good year from both Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes wouldn't be crazy. Again, I really like Trevor May in the bullpen, but I expect 2016 to be something impressive from the former Missouri Tiger.
MLB Hitter Of The Year- Trevor Plouffe
At different points during the conclusion of the 2015 season and into the offseason, it appeared as though the Twins may move on from their third basemen. With Miguel Sano needing to play the field somewhere, Plouffe trending towards being expendable. Thankfully that didn't happen, and the Twins retained one of their most talented players.
After agreeing to a one-year deal, Plouffe could end up having the Twins wish they would have went the extension route. In 2015, he posted career highs in runs, hits, triples, RBI, and games played. He hit over 20 homers for the first time since 2012, and he was a catalyst to an improved Minnesota offense. That might have been a mirage, but a better bet is that it was a sign of things to come.
Entering his year 30 season, Plouffe could do a bit more in the year ahead. He's a double machine, and the power should continue to be there. Pushing his slugging percentage back towards the .450 mark isn't unreasonable, and the added pop around him in the lineup should only help him. Look for Plouffe to once again help pace the Twins offense in the year ahead.
Bounce Back Pitcher Of The Year- Alex Meyer
Few players had a more rough 2015 season than Meyer. After being Baseball Prospectus' 14th rated prospect, things went incredibly downhill for the former Kentucky Wildcat. He transitioned to a full time relief role, and his debut in the big leagues lasted all of two games.
In his second year at Triple-A Rochester, Meyer posted a 4.79 ERA (over a run worse than 2014), along with another increased walk rate (4.7 BB/9). Meyer actually kept the ball in the yard more often (just 4 HR allowed as opposed to 10 in 2014), but issued far too many free passes. He continued to strike out a healthy amount of batters however, posting a 9.8 K/9.
Entering 2016, Meyer should have a legitimate shot to compete for the Opening Day bullpen. He's got stuff that should play up even more in relief, and could prove to stabilize a shaky Twins pen. Deserving of a September call-up that didn't come, Meyer posted a 0.46 ERA in his final nine games of 2015 (19.2 IP). Across those frames, he allowed opposing hitters to slash a paltry .174/.275/.188 off of him. I believe Meyer is going to see things click in the year ahead, and everyone will be better for it.
Bounce Back Hitter Of The Year- Oswaldo Arcia
If there's something that Arcia is going to offer the Twins, it's absolutely going to have to come with his bat. An abomination in the outfield, Arcia has now been surpassed on the positional depth chart by infield transplant Miguel Sano. Out of options however, the Twins will no doubt include Arcia on the 25 man roster.
A season ago, the slugging Venezuelan saw action in just 19 big league games. Over that time, albeit a small sample size, he posted his best average (.276) and on-base percentage (.338). He's a year removed from a 20 home run season, and that's something the Twins need him to get back to. Outside of a torrid home run stretch at Triple-A, Arcia slashed an ugly .199/.257/.372.
Expect Minnesota to give Arcia every chance to prove it. Just 24 years old, and still with plenty of power, Arcia's potential remains too much to give up on. He should see the field in limited action behind Sano, and the biggest key needs to be plate discipline. After swinging and missing far too often early on, a heightened contact rate could immediately push him back into the conversation among the Twins best young assets.
Minor League Pitcher Of The Year- Stephen Gonsalves
A season ago, the award went to the Twins top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios. It's Gonsalves who could end up stealing the spotlight from the likes of Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart in 2016 however. Likely slated to start his year at High-A Fort Myers, expecting him to stay there long is probably a fool's wish.
Through his three year professional career, Gonsalves has advanced two levels each season. After dominating Low-A Cedar Rapids to the tune of a 1.15 ERA in 2015, Gonsalves followed that up with a 2.61 ERA at High-A. His strikeout rate dipped considerably after his promotion (12.6 K/9 at A 6.2 K/9 at A+), but that could be attributed to an adjustment period.
Now 21 years old, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Gonsalves took a path similar to Berrios in the year ahead. A short stint at Fort Myers, followed by the bulk of the season being played at Chattanooga, and then a finale for Rochester would make a decent amount of sense. As a lefty who is far more dominant than crafty,. Gonsalves is continually pushing his ceiling, and he's begun to garner some serious national attention.
Minor League Hitter Of The Year- Jorge Polanco
Looking at the state of Twins positional prospects, the farm system has all but flipped the script. A year ago it was the offensively contributing prospects that debuted at Target Field. In 2016, pitching becomes the focal point with hitters left to emerge on their own. I expect Polanco to do exactly that.
Starting at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, Polanco turned in a solid .289/.346/.393 slash line. He flashed some power launching six homers, and his extra base ability was witnessed in his 17 doubles. Although there's some very real questions about whether or not Polanco will ever play the field good enough to not be a liability, his bat appears all but ready.
I have some serious concerns about Polanco getting bored on the farm, and stunting his development in the very near future. Blocked by Brian Dozier and without a true path to get to the big leagues regularly, forcing the Twins hand with his bat seems like a good bet. Whether or not Polanco becomes expendable remains to be seen, but I'm going to bet on him to hit in the year ahead.
MLB Pitcher Of The Year- Kyle Gibson
I went back and forth on this one for a while, as I believe Trevor May is going to truly be something special out of the bullpen. My selection of Gibson though is a testament to the step up I see him making in the year ahead. Gibson was already good in 2015, but 2016 should see him become great.
After posting a sub 4.00 ERA (3.84) and a 6.7 K/9 (career high) last season, Gibson has set the bar pretty high. He should be capable of driving that ERA down even further, and while the strikeouts may slip some, he's going to be really good. A late-bloomer due to injury, Gibson is entering his prime and set to do some impressive things during it. The former first round pick has the ability to push towards the top of the rotation, and the Twins will no doubt be better for it.
At the conclusion of the 2016 season, suggesting Gibson as the staff ace even with a good year from both Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes wouldn't be crazy. Again, I really like Trevor May in the bullpen, but I expect 2016 to be something impressive from the former Missouri Tiger.
MLB Hitter Of The Year- Trevor Plouffe
At different points during the conclusion of the 2015 season and into the offseason, it appeared as though the Twins may move on from their third basemen. With Miguel Sano needing to play the field somewhere, Plouffe trending towards being expendable. Thankfully that didn't happen, and the Twins retained one of their most talented players.
After agreeing to a one-year deal, Plouffe could end up having the Twins wish they would have went the extension route. In 2015, he posted career highs in runs, hits, triples, RBI, and games played. He hit over 20 homers for the first time since 2012, and he was a catalyst to an improved Minnesota offense. That might have been a mirage, but a better bet is that it was a sign of things to come.
Entering his year 30 season, Plouffe could do a bit more in the year ahead. He's a double machine, and the power should continue to be there. Pushing his slugging percentage back towards the .450 mark isn't unreasonable, and the added pop around him in the lineup should only help him. Look for Plouffe to once again help pace the Twins offense in the year ahead.
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Minnesota Twins
Friday, January 29, 2016
The Extended Phil Hughes
For the Minnesota Twins, pitching was absolutely an area of contention in recent years. As the team skidded towards 90 loss seasons for four years in a row, finding quality arms to fill out the starting rotation was a must, and a struggle. After emerging back into contention a season ago, the Twins took steps forward across the board. One man who wasn't a part of that equation was 2014 free agent signee, Phil Hughes.
As a 28 year-old in 2014, the Minnesota Twins inked Hughes as a free agent from the New York Yankees. The belief was that in abandoning the Cracker Jack box that was Yankee Stadium would lead to improved numbers for the former first round pick. That narrative couldn't have been more true.
In his first season with the Twins, Hughes set a Major League Baseball all time record in strikeouts per walk with an 11.63 K/BB rate. He offered free passes at just a 0.7 BB/9 rate, and turned his 3.52 ERA into a 7th place finish among Cy Young candidates. Had the defense behind him stepped up even further. his 2.65 FIP could've played even further, and his 8.0 K/9 would have held even more weight. By all measurable numbers, Phil Hughes' first season with the Twins was a smashing success.
Over the offseason, Minnesota extended Hughes who is now playing on a five-year, $58 million deal. He is signed with the Twins through 2019 and will be 33 years-old at that time. Following his extension, Hughes regressed. In 2015, the ace of the staff owned just a 4.40 ERA along with a 4.70 FIP. His K/9 numbers dipped to 5.4 although his walk rate stayed impressive at 0.9 per nine innings.
A season ago, the biggest detractor for Phil Hughes was the long ball. After allowing just 16 homers in his first season with the Twins, he gave up an American League leading 29 a season ago. It was the second worst mark of his career, and the worst since allowing 35 in 2012. In 27 starts a season ago, Hughes allowed home runs in 20 of them, surrendering at least one a month throughout the season. The damage could have been worse had 19 of those 29 not been solo shots. It's more than fair to say that limiting the long ball could have changed the season for Phil Hughes.
There were a couple of factors that no doubt aided the increase in home runs surrendered. Posting the worst mark in his career, Hughes saw 13.5% of the fly balls he allowed leave the yard. He gave up line drives over 24% of the time for the first time since 2008, and he gave up hard contact at a 31.2% rate, or a 4% jump from a season ago.
Pushing some of the change in effectiveness could be explained in Hughes experimenting with his arsenal. With new pitching coach Neil Allen in the fold, Hughes did some things different in comparison to 2014. Hughes threw just 59.2% of his pitches as fastballs, tying a career low set in 2011. He also threw more curveballs (15.7%) than he had since 2012 and had gone back to a changeup (4.8%) after all but abandoning the pitch in 2014 (0.2%). While not extremely drastic, the changes could have contributed to the issues the former Yankee experience.
Now heading into a second season with pitching coach Neil Allen, and a third with the Twins, we have probably seen both ends of the spectrum when it comes to Hughes. If he can fall somewhere in between the two extremes, the Twins will have to feel more than justified with their extension, and happy with a guy that can operate at the top of their rotation.
Steamer projections have him pegged for a 4.20 ERA along with a 4.25 FIP. The 6.05 K/9 mark would be a boost, but the system sees a decrease in walk rate now offering free passes at a 1.38 BB/9 clip. The most concerning number is that projections have Hughes pegged for the same 29 home runs surrendered, albeit while pitching a significantly higher load at 198.0 innings.
Projections aside, Hughes knows exactly what he has to work on. Giving up too many homers at Yankee Stadium was a problem, and it's not one that can be replicated in a pitcher's park like Target Field. Broken down to it's simplest terms, Hughes keeping the ball in the yard would have him looking like an extremely effective pitcher. A few tweaks and making that happen, should only bolster the Twins rotation further.
Void of top tier arms, it's the minor tweaks made throughout the year by Hughes and Ervin Santana, as well as the continued emergence of Kyle Gibson, that will make all of the difference.
As a 28 year-old in 2014, the Minnesota Twins inked Hughes as a free agent from the New York Yankees. The belief was that in abandoning the Cracker Jack box that was Yankee Stadium would lead to improved numbers for the former first round pick. That narrative couldn't have been more true.
In his first season with the Twins, Hughes set a Major League Baseball all time record in strikeouts per walk with an 11.63 K/BB rate. He offered free passes at just a 0.7 BB/9 rate, and turned his 3.52 ERA into a 7th place finish among Cy Young candidates. Had the defense behind him stepped up even further. his 2.65 FIP could've played even further, and his 8.0 K/9 would have held even more weight. By all measurable numbers, Phil Hughes' first season with the Twins was a smashing success.
Over the offseason, Minnesota extended Hughes who is now playing on a five-year, $58 million deal. He is signed with the Twins through 2019 and will be 33 years-old at that time. Following his extension, Hughes regressed. In 2015, the ace of the staff owned just a 4.40 ERA along with a 4.70 FIP. His K/9 numbers dipped to 5.4 although his walk rate stayed impressive at 0.9 per nine innings.
A season ago, the biggest detractor for Phil Hughes was the long ball. After allowing just 16 homers in his first season with the Twins, he gave up an American League leading 29 a season ago. It was the second worst mark of his career, and the worst since allowing 35 in 2012. In 27 starts a season ago, Hughes allowed home runs in 20 of them, surrendering at least one a month throughout the season. The damage could have been worse had 19 of those 29 not been solo shots. It's more than fair to say that limiting the long ball could have changed the season for Phil Hughes.
There were a couple of factors that no doubt aided the increase in home runs surrendered. Posting the worst mark in his career, Hughes saw 13.5% of the fly balls he allowed leave the yard. He gave up line drives over 24% of the time for the first time since 2008, and he gave up hard contact at a 31.2% rate, or a 4% jump from a season ago.
Pushing some of the change in effectiveness could be explained in Hughes experimenting with his arsenal. With new pitching coach Neil Allen in the fold, Hughes did some things different in comparison to 2014. Hughes threw just 59.2% of his pitches as fastballs, tying a career low set in 2011. He also threw more curveballs (15.7%) than he had since 2012 and had gone back to a changeup (4.8%) after all but abandoning the pitch in 2014 (0.2%). While not extremely drastic, the changes could have contributed to the issues the former Yankee experience.
Now heading into a second season with pitching coach Neil Allen, and a third with the Twins, we have probably seen both ends of the spectrum when it comes to Hughes. If he can fall somewhere in between the two extremes, the Twins will have to feel more than justified with their extension, and happy with a guy that can operate at the top of their rotation.
Steamer projections have him pegged for a 4.20 ERA along with a 4.25 FIP. The 6.05 K/9 mark would be a boost, but the system sees a decrease in walk rate now offering free passes at a 1.38 BB/9 clip. The most concerning number is that projections have Hughes pegged for the same 29 home runs surrendered, albeit while pitching a significantly higher load at 198.0 innings.
Projections aside, Hughes knows exactly what he has to work on. Giving up too many homers at Yankee Stadium was a problem, and it's not one that can be replicated in a pitcher's park like Target Field. Broken down to it's simplest terms, Hughes keeping the ball in the yard would have him looking like an extremely effective pitcher. A few tweaks and making that happen, should only bolster the Twins rotation further.
Void of top tier arms, it's the minor tweaks made throughout the year by Hughes and Ervin Santana, as well as the continued emergence of Kyle Gibson, that will make all of the difference.
Twins Fest's Biggest Hidden Gem
For year Minnesota Twins fans have been embarking on the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, and now more recently, Target Field. While the event is an autograph seeker's dream, the purpose is more to bring community and baseball together during a cold period in the great white north. This season though, one of the best kept secrets of Twins Fest may be the most creative man in attendance. Enter Mike Chuhon, better known as S. Preston (or @PootPoot for those on Twitter).
S. Preston's story is one that has become intertwined with Minnesota Twins lore. The Star Tribune's own, Phil Miller was one of the first to highlight his work. Target Field's entrance to the Metropolitan Club was a canvas that S. Preston made his own. Minnesota welcomed him to their hosted All-Star game, and now he'll be a first time attendant at Twins Fest.
As a Major League Baseball licensed artist, S. Preston is in a league virtually of his own. What his minimalist ballparks have started, has only opened a door to so much more. From a new line of mascots, to ballpark princesses, his tie between art and love for the game of baseball is just beginning.
For those planning on getting down to Twins Fest this weekend, and you should be, a stop is not complete without a visit to S. Preston's booth. While the autograph on your newly acquired piece of artwork will no doubt be available there, it's the connection to the game, and the man that makes the art that much more memorable.
Should you be in attendance at Twins Fest, S. Preston's booth can be found in the Metropolitan Club on all three days of the event. If you will not be able to attend in person, all of S. Preston's art can be found and purchased at his website here.
Whether you fancy yourself an art collector or a baseball fan, the theme between the two avenues is one that can be merged. Experiencing a creativity that fully envelops what a sport means to you is something rarely accomplished. In it's purest form, it's exactly what S. Preston has done. Do yourself a favor and connect the game you love to artwork that is inspired by equally as much, you'll be glad you did.
S. Preston's story is one that has become intertwined with Minnesota Twins lore. The Star Tribune's own, Phil Miller was one of the first to highlight his work. Target Field's entrance to the Metropolitan Club was a canvas that S. Preston made his own. Minnesota welcomed him to their hosted All-Star game, and now he'll be a first time attendant at Twins Fest.
As a Major League Baseball licensed artist, S. Preston is in a league virtually of his own. What his minimalist ballparks have started, has only opened a door to so much more. From a new line of mascots, to ballpark princesses, his tie between art and love for the game of baseball is just beginning.
…and even before the MLB knew who I was, the @Twins put this on their wall. #HighFiveToMinny pic.twitter.com/iWX4AOFkqr
— S. Preston (@PootPoot) January 28, 2016
On the surface, it's very clear to see what S. Preston is working to depict. Taking well-known features from some of architectures greatest marvels, Major League Baseball stadiums, he brings the game to fans in a whole new way. Further though, the art is a depiction of how you as a fan involve yourself with the game. Whether a stadium or a Disney princess, the way in which we relate to the best sport on the planet is all our own. This notion is the driving force behind the work.For those planning on getting down to Twins Fest this weekend, and you should be, a stop is not complete without a visit to S. Preston's booth. While the autograph on your newly acquired piece of artwork will no doubt be available there, it's the connection to the game, and the man that makes the art that much more memorable.
Should you be in attendance at Twins Fest, S. Preston's booth can be found in the Metropolitan Club on all three days of the event. If you will not be able to attend in person, all of S. Preston's art can be found and purchased at his website here.
Whether you fancy yourself an art collector or a baseball fan, the theme between the two avenues is one that can be merged. Experiencing a creativity that fully envelops what a sport means to you is something rarely accomplished. In it's purest form, it's exactly what S. Preston has done. Do yourself a favor and connect the game you love to artwork that is inspired by equally as much, you'll be glad you did.
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