Fleeting Second: Brian Dozier’s Awesome Flash

I found myself thinking through recent Twins history today and considered how much volatility there has been in terms of consistency. The Twins have been mostly bad, but when good, the performances have came and went rather quickly. 2020 truly looks like an open window, but it is Brian Dozier that I latched onto as the pinnacle of the roller coaster.

After debuting in 2012 as a shortstop, Dozier quickly flamed out at the position after just 84 games there in his opening salvo. He would relocate to second base and it wasn’t until 2015 that he began to make his mark. He was an 8^th round pick, and despite an appearance in both the Home Run Derby (2014) and All-Star Game (2015), he didn’t crack an .800 OPS until 2016.

That was the year, at age-29, that it seemingly all came together. Dozier reinvented himself into a dead-pull hitter that was determined to find the quickest way over the left field fence. His 42 homers that season were the most by any Twins player during a single year not named Harmon Killebrew. He became a slugger despite a smaller stature, and he had risen to be called one of the best second basemen in the game.

It really wasn’t since peak Robinson Cano that baseball had seen someone like Dozier. Brian wasn’t the prototypical uber-prospect, and he certainly wasn’t a five-tool player either. Like Cano, he was an offensive stalwart at an otherwise starved position. Around the league second base had become a destination for poor armed shortstops and was generally a position that you could find someone sitting right at league average.

The 2016 Twins were abysmal in every sense of the word. They won just 59 games and manager Paul Molitor couldn’t get any more out of that squad if he tried. Thanks to Dozier’s dinger derby, there was at least something to tune into on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, much of his accomplishment was lost nationally in the vein of his club being so bad. He’d go one to follow up that performance with 34 dingers in 2017, a year in which Minnesota made the Postseason.

Now having played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals since, Dozier’s career has already begun a downturn. He did post a .771 OPS last season while playing in 135 games and eventually winning a World Series ring. He had to settle for a minor league deal heading into 2020, but the expectation would be that he’d make the San Diego Padres Opening Day roster.

I’m not sure if we’ll see Brian reach that .800 OPS plateau again or not, but he was a late bloomer that gave us one of the highest peaks in Twins history. The unfortunate reality is that it came during a period of extreme lows and the contributions proved hollow in the grand scheme of things.

Thankfully, Dozier was a fan favorite and will not soon be forgotten in Twins Territory. His career will likely come to an eventually end being a rather nondescript one, but the memories will remain among the fondest to take place at Target Field. It will be interesting to see what we get from him in those nice new Padres threads, and what there is yet to come in the future.

It will not be a career that’s celebrated with substantial accolades when he hangs em up, but it’s incredible to think how good he was, even if it was for such a brief time.

Shiny Cards Galore with Topps Chrome

Each year there are certain products from Topps that collector's circle on their calendar. While there's products that come in all across the pricing spectrum, it's the flagship design that typically draws the most interest across the board. Making an appearance with a shiny finish is the allure of Topps Chrome, and the slight border should provide plenty of unique looks for the 2019 offering.

From a checklist standpoint, Topps Chrome is traditionally about the big name rookies. These are some of the cards you'll want to hold in hopes of rising value down the line. Unfortunately for Twins fans neither Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo represent that contingent, but on your search you could certainly land a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr.

Typically in this space there's an avenue to break down base, insert, and hit offerings targeted towards the Minnesota Twins. This time around there's not an opportunity to do that as the checklist is extremely light. Nabbing seven different base cards the subjects include rookie cards for Astudillo and Cave, with the veterans being Kepler, Polanco, Buxton, Berrios, and Rosario.

Just four insert sets are included in the product, so it's not a huge change of pace. No Twins make it into any of those groupings however, so it's simply base and hits. From an autograph standpoint Cave, Astudillo, and Stephen Gonsalves are all signers in the rookie autos checklist.

The one other hit inclusion is an interesting one. At one per case the Debut Gear Relics are somewhat of a chase card. Limited to 140 total cards plus an assumed four printing plates, Brian Dozier appears in this checklist. Now with the Washington Nationals, the chrome offering of what should be something to do with his 2012 memorabilia could be a nice little offering.

Releasing during the first day of the 2019 National Card Collector Show, 2019 Topps Chrome Baseball will again be a product to seek out. Simple yet attractive design makes rainbows in this product some of the most attractive to go after.

The 2018 @Topps Chrome Jose Berrios rainbow is complete. 3 superfactors, run of base, sapphire, and insert autos all included. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/cPFQ6DFj4w

— Ted (@tlschwerz) July 5, 2019

The Scoop on Schoop, and His Twins Fit

Entering the offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were tasked with finding infield help. They needed to replace the retired Joe Mauer, and the flipped Brian Dozier. Internal options put pretty much any infield position as an acquirable target, but in the end, second base and first base were the routes traveled. Now with Jonathan Schoop joining C.J. Cron, Minnesota has filled both needs, but there’s plenty to question here.

Schoop was acquired by the Brewers during the 2018 season. The intention in Milwaukee was to keep the 2017 All-Star around for the 2019 season. With a year of team control left, his arbitration contract was almost certain to be tendered. Unfortunately for Schoop, he owned just a .577 OPS in 46 games with the Crew and find himself out on the free agent market.

After making $8.5 million in 2018, the Twins getting a bounce-back candidate in his age-27 season at a paltry figure of $7.5 million, it’s hard to be disappointed. When viewing Schoop through a vacuum we can see a power hitting middle infielder that’s just a year removed from an .841 slugging percentage. He plays better defense than the Twins have employed at the position in some time, and the market itself wasn’t rich with ideal options.

It’s when you look at the fit with the Twins specifically that Schoop becomes a bit more of an odd fit.

Gone from the 2018 team are the likes of Dozier, Mauer, and Robbie Grossman. That trio was a mainstay in Paul Molitor’s lineup, and even with the down year from Dozier, the group provided an ability to get on base. Looking at the projected starters for Rocco Baldelli, the best OBP mark over the past two seasons comes from Eddie Rosario (.326). Given that the front office wound up with both Cron (.316 OBP 2017/18) and Schoop (.307 OBP) it’s worth considering that there may be a shift for power as opposed to plate discipline and on-base skills.

There’s an argument to be made that slugging percentage can begin tipping the scales away from OBP, but you’d like to have some sort of marriage throughout the lineup. Being too heavy on one side of the spectrum seemingly would lead to a feast or famine type of offensive output. Certainly, a rebounding Miguel Sano (.352 OBP in 2017, .385 OBP in 2015) would help matters. A designated hitter that can marry on-base skills and slugging prowess could also be an avenue of opportunity.

At the end of the days, Minnesota got one of the better second basemen on the market. Schoop has plenty more to like than players like Daniel Murphy or Jed Lowrie when considering all factors. At his best though, he’s a downgrade from even 2017 Brian Dozier (who wasn’t and shouldn’t have been considered by Minnesota), and the skillset that the Mississippi native used display in Twins Territory. If this is going to work swimmingly, Schoop needs to make 2018 a mirage and see the rest of the lineup help to hide his deficiency.

I’d bet the Twins are done with offensive additions unless a designated hitter falls into their lap, and now it will be up to the ability of the front office to raise the water level of the rotation and bullpen. Cleveland willingly taking steps backwards for 2019 helps this organization, and although the club doesn’t appear to be kicking the door in, beginning to pry it open would be a nice sign of things to come.

Outlining the Offseason: Areas of Addition

As the 2018 Major League Baseball Postseason continues to rumble on down the tracks, the Minnesota Twins are nearly two weeks into their offseason. Paul Molitor has been let go as manager of the club, and the winter ahead looks to be the most critical in the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine tenure. Despite a 78 win season for the hometown nine, this is still a collection that should compete next year in a weak AL Central. To best position the club however, the front office has some work to do.

With departures, and dollars coming off the books, Minnesota should have something like $50-60 million to spend on talent before Opening Day 2019. That's a good chunk of change, presumably one of the higher numbers in the sport, but before looking at names we'll need to blueprint the areas of focus. There's a handful of holes that need to be filled, and prioritizing them is part of the process as well. Let's take a look at what the blueprint may look like.

Bullpen

In 2017 the Twins owned the 22nd best relief ERA in baseball at 4.40. The front office responded by signing Zach Duke, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed in hopes of an uptick. In 2018 the relief corps owned the 22nd best relief ERA in baseball at 4.45. Looking ahead to 2019, two of those free acquisitions have since been traded (both were on one year deals), and Reed put up a clunker. Elite arm Ryan Pressly was also dealt from the group.

Taking a look at holdovers Minnesota really only has three certainties. Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, and Trevor Hildenberger look like capable high-leverage options. Outside of that trio however, Minnesota's bullpen is somewhat of a black hole. Names like Alan Busenitz and Tyler Duffey haven't seen consistent big league success, and internal options appear to be running relatively thin. Given the impact relievers now have on the game, it's hard to suggest less than two impact arms be acquired by the Twins.

Right now this collection doesn't have the "proven closer" type, although I'm not certain that's a necessity. If Reed can return to form, giving him the 9th wouldn't be such a bad idea. Pairing the internal trio with a couple more firemen that can be leaned out to get big outs would lighten everyone's workload, and raise the overall water level.

1st Base

Given where things stand currently, it seems near certain that Joe Mauer's playing career is over. I don't see how he'd be able to top the moment he left Target Field on, and a season of questions doesn't strike me as something the Minnesota native would welcome. Add in the fact that he'd be learning another new manager, along with his changing family dynamic, and I just can't find a way it makes sense. That means the Twins need someone new to start at first.

Tyler Austin is going to be in this mix, and he certainly should be, but there's a lot to be desired defensively from his candidacy. With Mauer out of the mix, the Twins could go the more traditional route of a power hitter at the corner spot. Miguel Sano could definitely be moved off of the hot corner, but again would need to show the defensive chops worthy of regular time there. Brent Rooker still remains a bat only prospect, and Zander Wiel probably isn't ready for that type of promotion.

How the Twins decide to address this spot is going to be interesting. All of the internal options have a couple of warts, and Mauer held the position despite being non-traditional in the stat producing categories. When a legend hangs them up you've got big shoes to fill, but how the front office goes about this fix should be worth watching.

2nd Base

From 2013-2018 the Minnesota Twins employed the 3rd best second basemen in baseball (in terms of fWAR). Brian Dozier also hit a position leading 166 homers in that time span. In fact, since Dozier came into the league in 2012, no second basemen has hit more than his 172 longballs. Transforming himself from a failed shortstop into a slugging two-bagger was an incredible feat. Don't let any of that cloud your judgement though, as Minnesota did the right thing.

In the final year of his deal Dozier owned a .712 OPS through 104 games for the Twins. It was apparent that a qualifying offer wasn't going to be an option for the organization, and getting assets in return was a very good proposition. Brian went on to post a .650 OPS in 47 games with Los Angeles, and hasn't started a Postseason game.

When looking to fill holes up the middle, the Twins have a few options. Although Jorge Polanco is miscast as a shortstop, he's certainly not an abomination. He could be shifted though, and a shortstop could be targeted instead. Nick Gordon struggled mightily at Triple-A and isn't a big league option right now. Really, you'd need to go down to Royce Lewis before you find a true shortstop in the system.

At the end of the day, expecting peak Dozier production from the replacement is a losing proposition. Second basemen typically don't launch 30 or 40 homers in a season. Polanco may be the best bat available, and Minnesota has some flexibility in that regard with how they'll fill the other position. An up the middle player is needed however, and it'll need to be one of starting caliber.

Starting Pitcher

You could arguably put starting pitcher among the list of needs on a continual basis for eternity. That said, seeing it this far down the priority list when looking at the Twins is quite a nice development. Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, and Jake Odorizzi have spots locked in for 2018. Michael Pineda is also going to be in the rotation if he's healthy. From there, it's up to the Twins depth.

The front office could deem that Fernando Romero is ready to be the 5th starter right from the get go. That would hardly be a poor decision, but it would be a significant gamble in the depth department. Should the Twins go out and sign a guy that can slot into the top three of their rotation, the overall quality rises, and Romero immediately becomes a strong first depth option.

It was nice to see guys like Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, and Aaron Slegers get run this year. In 2019 names like Lewis Thorpe and Brusdar Graterol could vault to the next level as well. The more patient the organization can be in terms of readiness however, the better results can be expected from the big league group. Minnesota could make a relative splash here, and with the talent already in house, it would make for a very strong overall positional group.

Thank you, Brian!

The year was 2012, and a 25 year old Brian Dozier had finally burst onto the scene. No, this wasn't the big leagues, but it was close enough. Spring Training had commenced down in Fort Myers, and the scrappy Southern Mississippi kid had taken the narratives by storm. He was getting hits on a daily basis, and fans were looking for a long term answer at short. The 8th round senior sign from 2009 had put his name in the hat and wasn't going away quietly.

Although he didn't go north with the club that year, it didn't take long for them to come calling either. On May 7, 2012 Brian Dozier would make his Major League debut. He tallied his first hit in that game, and his first home run came five games later. Largely however, 2012 was a season to forget. It became quickly apparent that Dozier wasn't suited to play shortstop at the big league level and the reset button was pushed.

Fast forward to 2013 and a positional move to second base. Marking his first full season with the Twins, Dozier would play in 147 games. It has since become customary over the course of his seven year career, but Minnesotans were put on notice that season; this man would simply not be held out of the game.

In 2014 Brian began to establish himself as a power threat. His 23 longballs followed up a solid 18 in the year prior. While not being the hulking corner infield type, this man helped to wear out the left field bleachers at Target Field. Despite being a snub for the game itself, Brian was able to participate in the hometown 2014 Home Run Derby. Although his efforts fell short, it was a great moment for the entirety of Twins Territory.

Not to be denied in 2015, Brian captured his first All Star game nod. A season that saw him come up just shy of 30 homers (28 in total), he received MVP votes for the first time in his career. By this point, it was apparent that the Minnesota Twins had one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Then, 2016 happened...

Harmon Killebrew is still, and will forever be, revered as the best Twins home run hitter of all time. In 2016, Dozier put himself among that rare company. With 42 homers to his credit, he again received MVP votes and further cementer his ability in comparison with the Jose Altuve's and Robinson Cano's of his position. At just 5'11" this was a relatively short man that had an ability at the plate to wear out Minnie and Paulie's hands.

Having now become known as a player that gets hot down the stretch, Dozier simply followed status quo in 2017. Although he didn't repeat and eclipse the 40 mark, his 34 homers were the second highest total of his career. Thanks to his offensive accolades, he vaulted himself into Gold Glove consideration and ended up taking home the award. At this point, the self-made slugger had turned a late blooming career into one for the storybooks.

Although Brian would've liked it to go differently this season, Minnesota simply couldn't keep up with all of the roadblocks in their way. Another trip to the postseason wasn't going to happen in Twins Territory, but that doesn't mean it won't for Brian. Now on his way to Los Angeles to join the Dodgers, a team he had been tied to in the past, Dozier gets to join a front-runner. He'll make a great up the middle partner for Manny Machado, and many Twins fans will only have to change their shade of blue come October.

As the sun sets on this chapter, Dozier leaves the Twins with 167 home runs, 202 doubles, and 491 RBI to his credit. He's a testament to the player that never stops working, and more importantly, the man that always wants more. Both he and his wife Renee have made an impact far greater than what's seen on the diamond, and they'll be sorely missed around Target Field. It's the nature of the business that players come and go, but this is one that left his mark here forever. Thank you Brian, and go Dodgers.

Clearing Room Helps Twins

The Minnesota Twins moved Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly over the weekend. One transaction involved a free agent to be, and the other focused around a return that likely was too good to pass up. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, clearing some extra space should be the goal for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

As things stand currently Minnesota has a handful of guys capable of being flipped to another team. The names include Brian Dozier, Zach Duke, Fernado Rodney, and Lance Lynn. If they really wanted to, and were presented with a solid return, Kyle Gibson could also enter this list. It's hard to see Minnesota being able to move Ervin Santana after just one or two healthy starts, but he could be an August trade candidate through the waiver process.

Looking at the list of candidates having a potential to be moved, there's something that should jump out as an opportunity. All of them are impending free agents, and there's a relatively small likelihood that any of them return to the Twins in 2019. With that in mind, it's time to start planning for the year ahead. Giving those innings to players that will be around is a must, and it's something that Paul Molitor only has two months left to capitalize on.

While it's uncertain as to whether or not Nick Gordon can start at the big league level a year from now, or if Stephen Gonsalves can continue to limit free passes, it's become time to find out some of those answers. Guys like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, and Jake Reed deserve some real run in the Twins pen, while Zack Littell and Adalberto Mejia could benefit from a couple of starts being strung together in succession.

When the Twins constructed the 2018 roster each of the pieces now available on the block made sense to bring in. This club was expected to be competitive, and without a lack of production across the board (combined with untimely injuries and bad luck), that was a reasonable expectation. Now with the narrative of the season having changed, the goal should be getting a jumpstart on the 2019 season.

It's hard to decipher whether or not Minnesota will be able to move all of their expiring pieces. Duke and Rodney have performed well this season, and should have appeal to some contenders. Dozier hasn't looked like himself, but a late season spark is all he'd need to supply in order to provide value to a postseason run. Lynn has been the worst of the bunch, but he's trended better of late and has a strong track record of success in his corner. What may be most interesting is what Minnesota decides to do if they can't move some of the pieces.

Looking at the roster construction as it currently stands, there's plenty of reason to question where the front office is prioritizing playing time. A guy like Matt Belisle has been both bad and ineffective for multiple organizations this season. Unfortunately, he's been given ample opportunity with Minnesota and that's to the detriment of the multiple more viable pen arms for the year ahead. A decision like that would suggest there isn't much care when it comes to preparing for what's next. Lynn could be DFA'd and the leftovers could see themselves passed through the waiver process, but we don't really have much evidence to suggest that's what lies ahead.

By my estimation, the most unfortunate way for the final two months of the season to play out would be to see all of these players stick around and no one get any real opportunity from the farm. You can't just cut bait on big league guys that are producing, but clearing the way for those you'll need to rely upon next season has to be of the utmost importance. We should have more clarity in the coming days, but the hope should be that the front office is on board with the train of thought as well.

Brian Dozier Where Art Thou?

The Minnesota Twins find themselves scratching and clawing through games in order to get back to the .500 mark. This season opened with so much promise, and has taken turns that virtually no one expected. While Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar pace the offense, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have been non existent commodities. Somewhat of an afterthought at this point, Brian Dozier has given Paul Molitor nothing of substance in 2018.

After garnering MVP votes for the third straight season last year, and winning a Gold Glove on the basis of his offensive performance, Dozier has been a black hole in the Twins lineup. In 2016 and 2017, the Minnesota second basemen posted .886 and .856 OPS totals respectively. As of June 20 this season, he's got a .682 mark. Slow starts aren't uncommon for the Mississippi native, but this level seems a bit unprecedented.

On June 7, 2017 Dozier owned a .748 OPS along with 19 extra base hits (9 longballs). Going back to 2016, he posted just a .694 OPS across 62 games up until June 17. That year he once again had 19 extra base hits, but only seven were homers. Through 68 games in 2018, Dozier has tallied 24 extra base hits and 10 homers. Putting it into that sort of perspective, things feel a bit less bleak.

If there's reason to be optimistic, it's that we've seen Brian make a habit of this. He's traditionally been a slow starter that goes on a tear at some point in the early summer. Right now, he owns a career best hard hit rate, and is spraying the ball consistent with career norms. His fly ball rate is where it has been and he's actually both chasing and whiffing less. If there's an area to point towards in relation to the slide, it's hit 6% dip in line drives, as well as the 6% falloff in HR/FB ratio.

For the Twins, Dozier has been the same player for each of the past handful of seasons. He uses a dead pull approach that allows him to yank homers over the left field fence. There's solid bat speed and whip through the zone, but he's not the hulking power hitter one would stereotype. Despite seasons of 42 and 34 longballs the past two seasons, a projection in the upper 20's seems like a safe bet on an annual basis. You're also going to get that production in lopsided amounts over the course of the season.

In short, I'm not certain Brian Dozier has gone anywhere. In fact, he probably is who he's always been.

To generate a higher level of production, Dozier will absolutely need to get the ball off the ground a bit more. The drop in line drive rate is significant, and putting the baseball on the ground is never going to be his game. As the line drives increase, so too should the HR/FB ratio.

The problem with streaky hitters is that you have to take your lumps through the down times, and unfortunately Dozier's is an annual occurrence. Despite the average being abnormally low, we aren't far off from what would be considered on par with previous outputs. If the Twins offense as a whole hadn't been such an abomination to this point, the second basemen would also have an easier time blending in.

At some point, guys like Dozier fizzle out in extreme fashion. The dead pull power approach decreases in effectiveness as careers get long. I don't think we're there yet (although it's part of the reason I believe Minnesota is right to let him walk this winter), and that's a good thing for the outlook of this lineup going forward. I'd be relatively shocked to see Brian put up 30 homers the rest of the way, but a turnaround shouldn't be anything but expected at this point.

Right now, the Twins need Dozier to start his surge. For the sake of his payday following the conclusion of the season, Brian could use that as well.

Twins Pitching Excellence but Needing More

The Minnesota Twins dropped their 8th game in walkoff fashion while playing the Kansas City Royals deep into the May 29th evening. Accomplishing that feat means they've surpassed the mark set in each of the previous 13 seasons, and 43 of their 58 in franchise history. While walkoff scenarios can sometimes be a fluke, there's a systemic trend that has Minnesota in the dire position they now face. The pitching is there, but the offense has been nonexistent.

Going into the year, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were vocal about retooling a pitching staff that needed a lift. Despite a successful 2017 campaign, it was clear that Paul Molitor's offense couldn't continue to bail out the pitching staff. Using a franchise record number of starters as well as arms in total, the quality level needed to be increased in order to reduce the quantity. Now nearly through May, it's fair to say that much has been accomplished.

Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios lead the club in terms of fWAR with tallies of 1.4. Each pitcher has put up a clunker or two, but the vast majority of their outings have been very strong. Gibson has picked up where he left off down the stretch and expanded upon it. Now a strikeout pitcher, he's missing bats and keeping the ball in the yard. Jose Berrios has shown a better level of control, which has led to a walk rate nearly halved from a season ago.

Even beyond the top two starters on the staff, Garvin Alston's group has been plenty good. Jake Odorizzi has served the part of a capable middle-of-the-rotation arm, while Lance Lynn has turned in two recent starts totaling out to a 1.42 ERA. Fernando Romero has burst onto the scene as a potential ace for the future, and the depth down on the farm looks better than ever. To suggest that this is the best Twins rotation in quite some time would be putting it nicely.

Although the bullpen hasn't been quite as sharp, there's a lot to like out there as well. Ryan Pressly looks like one of the best relievers in baseball, while Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney have performed as expected. Zach Duke has been shaky thanks to an uncharacteristic amount of free passes, but the strikeouts have saved him from more trouble. There's room for growth in relief, but the reality is that it's not the significant problem area that the Twins have experienced in the past.

Pitching as a whole has made significant strides within the organization, and it's evident when comparing the club to the league as a whole. Although team ERA checks in at 16th currently (finished 19th in 2017), starter ERA sits at 12th (19th in 2017). Arguably the most impressive boost comes in the form of missing bats, something previous Twins teams simply did not do. In 2018, Minnesota starters have the 9th best K/9 in MLB, and they finished at 26th a season ago.

All of the above represents some very positive developments. The problem however, is that the lineup is doing very little with what they've been handed.

After finishing 7th in runs scored, 10th in extra base hits, and 16th in home runs a season ago, the expectation was for potency from this group. Unfortunately, Minnesota ranks 29th in runs, 29th in home runs, and 19th in extra base hits as of May 30th. Producing at what amounts to a near league worst value, it really doesn't matter what kind of outings Twins pitchers produce.

Through their eight walkoff losses, five of them have come against teams with records at .500 or worse. On the season, Minnesota has played 20% of their first 50 games by scoring one run or less. Simply put, there's way too many guys failing at their jobs up and down the lineup.

Among starters, the Twins have six players with an OPS below .750. Byron Buxton has given Paul Molitor nothing at the plate, while Brian Dozier has decided to slump for a significant period yet again this season. Miguel Sano has dropped off the table when it comes to forcing a fair amount of walks, and Logan Morrison is still attempting to find his footing after a disastrous transition to his new club.

Right now, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are the only players providing Minnesota any sort of value in the lineup. Eduardo Escobar's hot streak is long gone, and the bench is made up of a handful of players that really have no business being in the big leagues. What's more dire for the Twins is that answers don't really present themselves outside of the clubhouse. Calling up Nick Gordon could provide a spark, but it would be short lived until Jorge Polanco returns. Chris Carter may provide some thump to the lineup, but he could also be an exact replica of what Sano is currently providing.

At the end of the day, it's on the players currently a part of the 25 man (and more importantly the starting lineup) to get their bats going. While veteran leadership off the field is great, there's no better way to lead than by producing while it matters. Sano, Dozier, Buxton, and a handful of others need to get going. The postseason is likely a distant mirage at this point, but turning things around, salvaging something of purpose, and giving the pitching staff much better than they've been afforded are all musts if this collective wants to be taken seriously in the future.

Buxton Extending Into the Future

Over the weekend, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweeted that the Minnesota Twins and star centerfielder Byron Buxton have a mutual interest when it comes to figuring out a long-term extension. Quickly, local names like Mike Berardino and Darren Wolfson noted that while true, that's quite a ways from happening. Although things could come together quickly, it's worth wondering what a deal may look like, and whether or not it makes sense for both sides.

As players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and some of the other developing youngsters push towards extensions, the Twins crossroads is an interesting one. It's at the end of 2018 that star second basemen Brian Dozier sees his four-year, $20 million extension run out. As John Bonnes from Twins Daily reported last week, the Mississippi native believes he's headed for free agency. Minnesota wasn't able to buy into Dozier's free agency years, and retaining him now would require a new deal to be worked out.

For a player like Buxton, the ideal scenario for the Twins would be to lock him up for a considerable amount of time. Obviously on Byron's end, he'll be foregoing arbitration induced pay raises, and will want to be compensated fairly. At 24 years old, and arbitration eligible for the first time in 2019, the clock is ticking. When looking for some level of comparison, another young outfielder comes to mind.

Enter Mookie Betts.

Although Betts doesn't play centerfield, he's a decent case study when it comes to Buxton. Betts won his second straight Gold Glove for the Red Sox in 2017, and posted his fourth straight season with an OPS north of .800. Across all of baseball, only Betts had more DRS (31) in the outfield than the Twins Buxton (24). The Red Sox right fielder's UZR more than doubled the Twins centerfielder's, and his RngR factor also checked in slightly higher. The breakout was hardly a one year thing either, as Betts posted dazzling digits across multiple defensive metrics in 2016. Even before reaching tallies of 32 and 31 DRS the last two years respectively, Betts owned marks of 5 and 10 in his first two seasons.

On the offensive side of the diamond, there's little argument to be made that Betts hasn't been the far superior player. In his worst season, an .803 OPS still shines amongst an All Star caliber resume, along with a third straight year of MVP votes. For Buxton, the .728 OPS in 2017 showed part of the promise that made him the number on prospect in all of baseball, but it was still an early season swoon that weighed down his overall numbers.

For Buxton to reach the overall impact that Betts has for the Red Sox, Minnesota will need to see a full 162 games worth of the .796 OPS tallied from June 1st through the end of the season. As Buxton legitimately broke down his swing and rebuilt it at the big league level under James Rowson a season ago, it's an expectation that doesn't seem too incredibly lofty. What is an All Star candidate based upon a lackluster OPS and his glove alone, is an MVP threat for multiple years in a row when reaching his peak potential.

So knowing they similarly stack up, Betts is a bit further into the process of being paid. While having not been extended by the Red Sox, he's seen raises from $514.7k to $566k, and then further to $950k a season ago. Being arbitration eligible for the first time this season, Betts' case went to a hearing. The Red Sox offered him $7.5 million, while he believed in being worth more. After having the case heard, the outfielder came out on top and will make $10.5 million in 2018. Over a 10x increase on his 2017 salary, Betts has three more years of arbitration induced salaries before he'll hit free agency.

That $10.5 million Betts was awarded comes in as the second highest salary for a player in their first year of arbitration eligibility, and it was only beaten by Kris Bryant in this same offseason ($10.85m.) It was in this same offseason that Blue Jays third basemen Josh Donaldson set the record for the largest arbitration contract in history, checking in at $23 million. Toronto had worked out a deal to give Donaldson cost certainty each of the past two years with a deal that paid him a total of $28.65 million. Having run out the year before he hits the open market however, the new number is a hefty one.

What the numbers above suggest is that Byron Buxton could have the Twins in a place where they see some really inflated numbers rather quickly. After making $535k in 2017, Buxton's increase is a modest one to $570k. This is the last deal that will be consummated without the intervention of the arbitration system unless a long-term agreement is struck however. If Byron continues to let nothing fall but raindrops, and the bat is in the place it appears to be, the dollar signs should roll in rather quickly. Minnesota could be looking at numbers like $8m, $10m, $12m, and 15m over the course of the next four seasons. Having yet to earn a seven-figure yearly salary, the Georgia native could be staring at the business end of $45 million in a few short years. While that would still pale in comparison to the value he'd bring in that scenario, a more economically focus route could be beneficial for the Twins.

The current front office wasn't in place when Minnesota agreed to keep Brian Dozier around for $20 million over the course of four-years. That being said, this astute collection likely sees the value in a similar cost-certainty model for their superstar centerfielder. Dozier was 28 at the time of his first multi-year deal, while Buxton just turned 24 last December. There's plenty of factors at play, but the numbers seem to suggest that giving up a sense of certainty for a level of security is a good play for both sides.

I'm not entirely sure what the numbers would look like, but something like $30-35 million through four years of arbitration could be a nice get for all parties involved. No matter what the dollars say however, it appears to make sense, for both Buxton and the Twins, to pencil each other into plans for the immediate future.

Nick Gordon and the Tea Leaves

As February comes to a close, and the calendar turns over to March, spring training is well underway for the Minnesota Twins. After an 85 win season took them to a Wild Card tilt in the Bronx, Paul Molitor's club is looking to make waves in the year ahead. Looking to make waves on his own, Nick Gordon seems to have been given a handful of opportunity from the get go this exhibition season.

As of this writing, Minnesota will have played five games in Grapefruit League action, and Gordon has competed in three of them. He's started twice, manning the middle of the diamond with Jorge Polanco flanking him at shortstop. Playing second base in all of his action, Dee's brother and Tom's son has provided some interesting messages to read into.

At Double-A Chattanooga in 2017, Gordon played 104 games at short, while manning second base in just 14 contests. Drafted as a shortstop out of high school, the hope was that his glove would allow him to stick at the position. Now through 415 minor league games, he's started 374 of them at short. Although the expectation was that the bat needed to develop, the early belief is that the glove and arm could stick. With defensive metrics being tracked much more lightly on the farm, we're forced to look at much more archaic forms of measurement. Spanning all of his game action, Gordon owns a .960 fielding percentage to go with 69 errors. The past two seasons, he's committed 24 and 19 errors respectively.

Multiple prospect experts see Gordon needing to slide over to second at the next level. While he has the speed and range at short, the glove and arm have left him susceptible to miscues. If that ends up being the case, the likely outcome is an up-the-middle-pairing with Jorge Polanco. Unfortunately, both of those players would be somewhat miscast for an every day role at short, but Polanco did make strides a season ago. After being worth -8 DRS and posted a -10.9 UZR in 406 innings during 2016, Jorge played over 1,110 innings in 2017 and compiled a -1 DRS and -4.3 UZR.

No. 80 overall prospect Nick Gordon (@Twins No. 4) put his speed on display as he flew around the bases on this RBI 3B, even losing his helmet in the process. pic.twitter.com/qfHrcDSpWs

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 28, 2018

Gordon's bat has been on a nice trajectory however. After compiling a .699 and .696 OPS in his first two seasons, Gordon has surpassed the .700 OPS mark in each of the past two years. His .749 OPS in 2017 was a career best, and still reached that height despite a final 30 games (8/1-9/4) that equated to just a .593 OPS. Over the course of his first 92 games last season (4/6-7/31), Gordon posted a .287/.362/.439 slash line with 24 doubles, seven triples, and seven homers. As a 21 year-old at Double-A, those numbers are glowing.

Currently in Fort Myers at the Twins spring training complex, John Bonnes spoke with Minnesota second basemen Brian Dozier. In his comments, he makes it relatively clear that he's looking forward to his impending free agency. At 31 years-old, he'll be somewhat difficult to hand a long-term, big-money deal. If Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decide to go a different direction, letting Dozier walk could open the door for Gordon to run with the role for good.

There's no reason to believe Gordon's early action in spring training suggests he's got a legitimate shot to break camp with the Twins. Right now, the top prospect isn't even on the 40 man roster. What I do think we are seeing is an early-and-often approach that suggests Minnesota knows he's close. Gordon will probably spend the bulk of 2018 at Triple-A, and could see time at the big league level later in the year. The more he plays alongside potential future teammates however, the easier it is for him to integrate when called upon.

Over the course of recent Twins seasons, there may be no bigger shoes to fill than Brian Dozier's. Nick Gordon isn't ever going to hit anywhere near 30+ home runs in a season, but he could be called upon to take the baton from the Twins All-Star. The more he plays in starting lineups during 2018 spring training should only fuel the fire to make that a reality on a nightly basis when the games count.

It seems to me that Minnesota believes Gordon is very close, and for the player, that should be motivating enough to make 2018 a season to keep an eye on.

Dozier Poised For 2018 Of Contract Proportions

Entering the 2018 Major League Baseball season, Brian Dozier looks to his future and sees free agency looming. Despite allowing the Minnesota Twins to buy out his arbitration years in a four-year, $20 million deal, the hometown squad couldn't lock him in past free agency. Now, as the two sides ponder an extension, it's worth wondering how the year ahead could go for one of baseball's best players.

Dating back to 2014, only Jose Altuve has been at the position (in terms of fWAR) than the Twins two-bagger. In that time, Dozier has become an All Star, Home Run Derby participant, Gold Glove winner, and MVP vote getter. He began as an aging and failed shortstop, and revolutionized himself into a premium player at a position generally void of them across the sport.

Despite hitting 42 long balls in 2016, Dozier's emergence as an offensive threat has been anything but a slow burn. He's been on a relative tear for the past four seasons. With a slash line of .254/.338/.476 and 127 homers since 2014, there's no denying that the Mississippi native could be inserted into the heart of many lineups across the sport.

Looking at the year ahead and beyond, it's worth wondering what to expect from Brian, and what that tells us about any more potentially on the table. First and foremost, it's worth mentioning that there seems to be a heightened level of performance in the final year of deals. Both Dozier and the Twins could strike a match before spring training ends, and while there's not an exact science to it, nothing on the table could prove as motivation to reach new heights.

In somewhat of an interesting case, Dozier is a late bloomer. He didn't reach the big leagues until 25, and he didn't become a significant cog until his age 27 season in 2014. He's played at least 152 games each of the past four years, and while there's been slumps tied loosely to overuse, his availability to the Twins has been remarkable.

Recent memory serves Dozier even more favorably. Over the past two seasons, Dozier has posted back to back .800+ OPS numbers, and compiled a .269/.349/.522 slash line. His 131 OPS+ jumps off the page, and his 76 homers are an astounding number given the position he plays. While the Gold Glove may be more reflective of his offensive prowess, it's hard to argue Brian Dozier as anything but the best second basemen not named Jose Altuve at the current juncture.

That being said, both Dozier and the Twins aren't too concerned with what has taken place. Although it's previous production that Brian will tie his argument for future dollars to, it's the projections going forward that will open the wallets of any would be suitors. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old, Dozier's case is somewhat of an anomaly. He's been a beacon of health throughout his time in the big leagues, and as a senior sign, compiled only 365 games in the minors. While he's aging, there's an argument to be made that there could be a decent amount of tread left on the tires.

Trying to glean insight from ZiPS as well Marcell projection systems, Dozier has some 2018 numbers to pick at. ZiPS sees a .257/.341/.482 slash with 31 homers, while Marcell comes in with a .259/.337/.494 slash and also 31 homers. Both the OPS numbers fall below the .856 mark posted in 2017, but remain above the .800 level that would put him in star company. After following up the 42 Home run output with a tally of 34 a year ago, the projection systems agreeing on 31 would be almost exactly in line with his four-year average.

What I think we can expect from Brian Dozier in 2018 is something along the lines of what he's established as norms. The power should continue to be there, even despite an expected level of regression a season ago. Reaching the 30 plateau should again be more than doable, and doing so with an .800+ OPS is hardly a longshot. Among the biggest areas of growth in recent seasons for Dozier has been his ability to get on base. Although he strikes out too much for a leadoff hitter, the ability to draw walks has grown, and his .359 OBP of 2017 was a shining bright spot. Dropping down to something like a .345 OBP wouldn't be unexpected, but it would hardly be a significant detractor either.

It's understandably hard to believe in immeasurable principles, but should Dozier enter the season in a "contract year," then I think we'd be in for a slight uptick across the board. Regardless, any level of regression should be muted as it appears the late-bloomer is in the heart of his prime. A long term deal may not benefit the signing team well as an elder free agent can crash fast, but Minnesota has to feel good about getting Dozier's best for as long as they have.

If we've learned anything over the past two or three seasons with Dozier, it's not to bet against him. While he's transformed himself into a pull hitter while generating significant power, he's also adapted to opposing pitchers. Up and in balls still end up over the fence, but he's been able to do far more than the approach had initially suggested may be possible. An overview of the 2018 Twins lineup should again be described as a run producer, but there's little mystery to the fact that Brian Dozier will be in the heart of that reality.

Everything Breaking Right For Twins

Coming off a 103 loss campaign a season ago, there was plenty of room for tempered expectations in 2017. While many feared another lackluster season, the expectation always should have been a generous step forward. Given the uncertainty of youth, a three year span with a boom, buster, and normalization felt appropriate to surmise. As we go down the stretch in 2017 however, the Twins have become much more.

Going into 2017, I felt pretty confident that something in the upper 70's seemed like a realistic win total for Minnesota. A .500 record seemed doable, if not a best case scenario, but a certainty to bank on was the floor not once again dropping out. Fast forward to late August and the hometown nine is within striking distance of the division, and pacing a tight knit group for the second Wild Card spot. The results have no doubt been a culmination of 120 plus games of solid baseball, but right now, something different is taking place.

Looking ahead, the 2018 Twins appear to be a team that should target the Postseason or bust. With the maturation of the youth, integration of the veterans, and the landscape of their division, it's a perfect storm. That all held relatively true regardless of what took place this season. Over the past few weeks however, it's been a tying of the old guard, and the new, that has really positioned Minnesota to crack a smile.

As of this writing, Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario are all pacing Minnesota at the same time. Hot streaks tend to come and go, but each of the aforementioned names have seen a consistent and sustained level of success over a period of weeks. While it's great on an individual basis, it's also explained why the Twins have been so able to fight off regression. It's fair to wonder whether one may cool off, but with the chips stacked as five players go off at the same time, there's definitely some room for error.

Each player could have an entire post dedicated to their surge, but from a snapshot view, here's what we're looking at from the names above since the month of August kicked off:

• Brian Dozier .333/.429/.702 12 XBH 9 HR
• Joe Mauer .303/.379/.395 5 XBH 1 HR
• Jorge Polanco .382/.417/.647 10 XBH 3 HR
• Byron Buxton .316/.349/.566 9 XBH 4 HR
• Eddie Rosario .346/.375/.679 13 XBH 7 HR

That group above accounts for over half of the Twins nightly lineup. Given the fact that their combined average is well north of .300, and they have produced a glut of extra base hits, it's no wonder why the Minnesota offense is clicking. There's some like Rosario and Buxton that have sustained it longer than others, but the goal is to try and continue to increase the sample size for each of the parties involved.

Quite possibly the best news about the group currently putting the Twins ahead on a nightly basis, are the names it doesn't include. Miguel Sano has been scuffling since the All Star Break (and is currently on the DL), while Max Kepler has yet to really find a groove in 2017. In it's entirety, that full contingent of seven players remain with Minnesota not only for this year, but at least the one that lies ahead as well.

It'd be foolish to suggest that Minnesota is a World Series contender in its current state. As we've seen as 2017 has drawn on though, this team is ready to make some waves. The offseason ahead provides some real opportunity to supplement a strong nucleus, and continuing to get production from a blend of player types will have a Derek Falvey and Thad Levine squad as must watch entertainment.

At some point in the not so distant future, it's a good bet there will be some cooling off. The hope would be that opponents fall victim to the same situation. Given the lay of the land however, the Twins have the deck stacked in their favor right now, and that's not a bad situation to be in at all.

Twins Going Streaking

The 2017 Major League Baseball season has been one that's proven incredibly tough to read for the Minnesota Twins. After pacing the division for much of the first half, there's been multiple times in which the club looks to have lost all hope. As the summer draws to a close however, they've hung around, and it's been in large part to a handful of key pieces getting hot.

Coming off a franchise worst 103 losses, there should have been a massive expectation that this Twins would rebound. While they weren't a team destined for the Postseason, 2015 and 16 highlighted the volatility of young players. After surpassing expectations two years ago, virtually the same group failed them mightily last year. Once again on the upswing, this group is probably much closer to a settling in point.

The veterans in the lineup are doing their part to keep a good thing going. Chief among them, Brian Dozier, is once again experiencing his patented August surge. Recently written about at Twins Daily, Dozier has consistently turn in a strong month to round of the summer. Now through 12 games, he has six home runs and a .340/.375/.736 slash line. Dating back to July 14, the Twins second basemen has posted a .982 OPS, and is once again trending towards a strong finish.

On a much smaller scale, Joe Mauer has always experience a slump and a streak in August. After starting slow, he turned series against the Brewers and Tigers into a .321/.387/.464 slash line that has brought his batting average back up to .279. While he's no longer going to contend for batting titles, he's remained an asset against right-handed pitching, and is contributing at the best time possible.

Looking at youth, the continued emergence of Eddie Rosario has been a sight to behold. While you could consider him a bad ball hitter, the reality is more that he simply chases balls that he has no business swinging at. Arguably his greatest knock as a pro remains his plate discipline, and the amount of time he spends expanding the strike zone. As the months have gone on in 2017 however, he's continued to dial that reality back, and leads Minnesota in batting average because of it.

Now experiencing career best chase rates and swinging strike marks over the past two months, Eddie Rosario owns a .333/.376/.581 line since July 1st, and has put forth a 1.143 OPS in the month of August. In dialing back his approach, he's become arguably the Twins best hitter, and one that hits for both power and contact. Despite the defensive dip this season, he's been incredible at the plate.

On a lesser scale, Byron Buxton is again rounding into form. Since July 4th (and with a DL stint in between), Buxton owns a .371/.420/.500 line across 19 games. Dating way back to May 9, Buxton has played in 71 games for the Twins and has posted a .258/.322/.355 OPS, While that isn't going to do much offensively, combined with his Gold Glove ability in center, that makes him an incredible asset. Whether he continues to shape into a player reflective of the smaller or larger sample size remains to be seen, but the promise is still through the roof.

Unfortunately, players like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler haven't yet hopped on the streaking bandwagon. While each has seen their struggles down the stretch, the hope would be that each has a nice burst left to finish the year. It's absolutely promising however, to see such an offensive contribution from so many different parts of the lineup.

At the end of the day, the Twins probably still aren't a Postseason team in 2017. What the stretch run is showing us however, is that the expectation for 2018 should be a Postseason berth. Given the landscape of the division, and the emergence of this group, things are trending in the Twins favor. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Minnesota is on a better pace than the 2015 squad, and is going to play some really exciting baseball right up until the dust settles.

Moves Highlight Front Office Acumen

Over the offseason, the Minnesota Twins hired a new front office duo in the form of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. They were thrust into a situation where the roster was in flux, and the manager was appointed to them. On top of all that, they were faced with making a critical decision regarding a second basemen coming off one of the best seasons in franchise history. Fast forward to today, and trades have been the highlight that define the new tandem's baseball acumen.

Prior to the 2017 season getting underway, Falvey and Levine had extensive discussions with the Los Angeles Dodgers in regards to Brian Dozier. It was a match made in heaven from a needs perspective, and LA had the assets to part with. However, as the process drew on, it was apparent the Dodgers were stuck on giving up a sole player in return, and the Twins brass held their ground.

Despite putting up Harmon Killebrew like numbers a season ago, Dozier was primed for regression. He had averaged 23 homers a season from 2013-2015, and the 42 long ball output in 2016 wasn't going to cloud that. Regardless, he was still more valuable to the Twins than a one-for-one return. Jose De Leon is a nice enough prospect, but as they all are, a lottery ticket nonetheless. He had shoulder and arm issues in the past, and flipping a high level big leaguer for that level of uncertainty never made sense.

In the end, Falvey and Levine did their best to have Cody Bellinger or Walker Buehler brought into the conversation. While never a possibility, you can't fault them for aiming high. When players like Brock Stewart and Willie Calhoun weren't going to be thrown in either, they smartly walked away. At the end of the day, even with his faults, Dozier would be more valuable to the Twins than a straight up return of solely De Leon.

Fast forward to the 2017 Major League Baseball trade deadline and the duo was at it again. Despite no numbers suggesting Minnesota could hang with the red-hot, and frankly more talented, Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals, the front office took a calculated shot. Giving up next to nothing in Huascar Ynoa, Jaime Garcia was brought in to bolster a depleted rotation. In a matter of a week, the expected played itself out, and Minnesota' front office flipped the pitcher in a deal that essentially boiled down to buying two better prospects from the Yankees for roughly $5 million.

Caught in the middle ground between buying and selling, the Twins dipped their toe in, allowed the scenario to play itself out, and then ended up in a better position anyways. Once they established themselves as sellers, the strong decision making continued. With no realistic place for him in the organization, the Twins getting any return for John Ryan Murphy was a win. Sure, the former regime screwed the pooch in dealing away Aaron Hicks for nothing, but Gabriel Moya is dominating Double-A and is one heck of a dart throw in exchange for a guy you can't use.

While the Twins bullpen has been a mess in 2017, it always stood to reason that Brandon Kintzler had no place in it once Minnesota deemed it wasn't going anywhere. A free agent at the end of the year, he's still free to resign, and getting something back for him is a huge win. Falvey and Levine turned a guy the Twins signed on a minor league deal, and paid next to nothing in 2017 for, into a high floor/low ceiling minor league arm from the Nationals. Continuing to add to pitching depth, Minnesota did right by Kintzler and themselves.

It's been less than a year thus far, but what we've seen from the front office in terms of acquisitions should be heartwarming. The Twins have a young core, and are positioned to win soon, and for an extended period of time. With savvy decision making thus far, an offseason in which it makes sense to spend and supplement is something that lies ahead of both Falvey and Levine.

The rest of the way in 2017, it would be nice to see a glut of prospects make their debuts at Target Field. Starting the audition process now would go a long ways into shaping the 25 man coming out of spring training a year from now. There is the caveat that Paul Molitor may not be around a year from now, and that could influence roster decisions presently. That being said, it seems that when shaping this organization, Derek Falvey and That Levine have a plan. So far, they've shown an ability to know when to hold em, and maybe more importantly, when to fold em.

Twins Home Run Hitters Not Created Equal

In 2016, the Minnesota Twins slogged through what was undoubtedly among the toughest seasons to endure in franchise history. Over 100 losses, not much competitive play, and a season that can be classified as nothing short of lost. If there was a silver lining though, it was Brian Dozier and his 42 home runs. In 2017, we're seeing it again, but from a player that's doing it his own way.

Last year, Brian dozier became the first player to hit 40 or more home runs in a season for the Twins, not named Harmon Killebrew. He went from hitting 18 in 2013, to hanging around in the 20's each of the next two seasons, to exploding for 42. At points, it seemed his swing had become defiant. He was going to pull everything, it wasn't necessarily working, and it may have been a problem. He then got hot, popped off a bunch of long balls over the summer, and became the most coveted second basemen in baseball.

Fast forward to 2017, and Minnesota Twins third basemen Miguel Sano has 14 homers through the first 53 games. Interestingly enough, that's a pace of 43 homers on the year, or the same number Dozier would've had without Minnesota watching a game they started be wiped out by rain. Despite a similar trajectory to Dozier from a year ago, the Twins hulking slugger from the Dominican couldn't be going about his power in a more different way.

Some key numbers from Dozier's 2016 include a 34.7 Hard%, a 20.0 K%, and an 8.8 BB%. Dozier also posted an 18.4 HR/FB% and yanked the ball to left field 56.4% of the time. To summarize, the Twins second basemen generated power by being a dead pull hitter while also experiencing a good deal of gap contact.

The numbers for Sano couldn't be more of a stark contrast. This season, he owns a 52.0 Hard%, and has paired it with a 37.1 K% and 15.2 BB%. His HR/FB rate is 30.4% and he's pulling the ball just 40% of the time. Sano is a three true outcomes hitter, that is hitting bombs and getting on base by just destroying the baseball.

On the season, Miguel Sano is pacing the big leagues with a 96.6 mph average exit velocity. A year ago, Brian Dozier's average exit velocity was just 87.5 mph, sandwiched between James McCann and Josh Reddick. For each of the balls that Sano sends deep into the night, Dozier was scraping the flower pots at Target Field. Sano is also averaging a big league best, 241 ft on balls he puts in play. Dozier's average distance last year was 192 ft.

You can make a pretty obvious guess that Sano has sprayed homers to all fields more than Dozier did a season ago. Given that the latter is classified as being a dead pull hitter, it's not surprising to see the differences in their spray charts. Sano has gone to the opposite field and used dead center more already in his first 14 homers, than Dozier did all of 2016. What's maybe more interesting is in the quality of contact.

The expectation should be that solid contact is a necessity when it comes to hitting a home run. What's not a given however, is whether or not the ball was barreled on the bat. It's in utilizing the barrel that a hitter sees the long and powerful home runs. Looking at their comparisons, not only did Dozier not barrel all of his homers, but the vast majority fall very borderline on the spectrum. It helps to explain the differences our eyes suggest in just how the home run is being produced.

Given everything we've dissected here, the goal isn't to classify one players as more of a home run hitter than the other. The difference however, may be in terms of sustainability, and projectability. While Dozier was primed to come back to earth this year, and likely sit somewhere in the 20's when the dust settled, it's fair to project Sano for 35-40 homers a year for the foreseeable future. Power is something that comes natural to Miguel Sano, while Brian Dozier has generated his on his own accord.

Having now looked at what 42 homers looks like, and what a 43 home run pace suggests, it's exciting to see the Twins employ both a guy who's created his own power stroke, and one who is simply using the tools already afforded to him. Miguel Sano is going to destroy baseballs for quite some time, and Twins fans should sit back and enjoy the show.

The Twins Blockbuster Yet To Come

Over the offseason, there was no such thing as Twins talk that didn't include the discussion surrounding Brian Dozier. After launching 42 (43) homers, Minnesota was out for a king's ransom in return for their prized second basemen. When the Dodgers eventually bowed out in favor of Logan Forsythe, Minnesota took their toys and went home. It's worth wondering though, is Dozier even the most valuable trade chip that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine possess?

He's not a true number one starter by any means, but the Twins ace Ervin Santana has gotten off to a blistering pace in 2017. He currently owns a big league leading 0.66 ERA. He's 5-0 through six starts, and has already tallied a complete game shutout. His 0.707 WHIP is nearly half of his career 1.268 mark and both his K/9 and BB/9 fall right in line with his career averages.

Now, you'd be silly to extrapolate a six start sample size to the duration of the season. However, for a starting pitcher, six games equates to roughly 20% of the expected workload. While it's still just the beginning, it's a more significant piece of the puzzle than anything a hitter has compiled through one month of meaningful action.

I wrote about Santana a bit ago, and that this season isn't all that out of nowhere for him. Of course predicting him to be this good is a stretch, but the reality is that he's been good for a while, and a few small tweaks, along with good defense has helped him immensely. Santana owns a 2.98 FIP to date, nearly a full run better than at any other point in his career. He's also generated more weak contact than any starting pitcher not named Andrew Triggs.

This sample size can be extended back even a bit further as well. Dating back to July 2016, Santana has posted a 1.93 ERA along with a 3.22 FIP. Opposing hitters have batted just .184 off of him in those 22 starts, and his WHIP rests at 0.95. Behind him, he's had an outfield composed mainly of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler. If and when he's allowing contact to the grass, it's generally falling into leather.

Attempting to put some sort of a bow on it, Santana has elevated himself slightly, and has also enjoyed some very strong defense behind him. He's been the Twins ace, and among the best pitcher's in the game. It's really not a small sample size at this point, and you can bet other teams are taking notice.

So with those other teams, the Twins could find themselves in the driver's seat. Last offseason, Minnesota was tasked with attempting to get fair value for a second basemen that hit 14 more homers than his previous career best, and posted an OPS over .100 points north of the season before. Brian Dozier was, and remains, a regression candidate in every sense of the word. That's not to sell Dozier short, even at a .760 OPS and 25 home run total, he's a very nice big leaguer, the problem is the market has a good deal of those.

Arguably moreso now than at any point in recent memory, the second base position in the big leagues is stacked. From Altuve to Cano, and Kinsler to Murphy, there's at least 10 (or one-third) legitimate star two baggers. With that being the reality, the position remains both a luxury, and one that many top teams have accounted for.

When talking to the Dodgers, Minnesota targeted Jose De Leon in exchange for Dozier. They also asked for names like Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, neither of whom could've ever been had even straight up. De Leon entered 2017 averaging somewhere around the 30th best prospect, and he's yet to pitch this season after dealing with injury troubles. Minnesota was wise to want more for a player that means so much to their franchise, but getting a fair return for Dozier is likely always going to be an uphill battle.

That leads us to this; what if Ervin Santana is actually the more valuable piece? Pitching is always going to be at a premium, and Santana comes controllable at $27.m over the next two seasons. For a guy that's been anywhere close to what he's produced, that's larceny. On the flip side, Dozier's team control ends after next season, and he's due for a raise well above the $9m he's slated to make.

If the Twins can continue to hover around .500, it probably makes more sense for them to hold onto everything, make a splash in the offseason, and go for it in 2018 and beyond. If they don't see that window ready to break open however, it very well could be Santana that restocks the farm, and that wasn't likely the case even a few months ago.

Twins Have Offense, Will Travel

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were some very fair concerns surrounding the Minnesota Twins. The team was coming off a franchise worst, 103 loss season, and the offseason didn't bring much in the form of change. That being said, most of the concerns for the upcoming year were pitching related, and really, it should remain that way. The reality is that this team should hit, and we've seen that early.

The crux of the argument that the 2017 squad should be significantly better than a year ago is built around a progression concept. With a roster filled with developing cornerstones, experience should result in growth and then equal production. Players like Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and even Eddie Rosario, should only be more productive year over year for the foreseeable future. In the batters box, this team should be expected to compete.

There's very little to take away from a small week on sample size. Combine that with the fact that the Kansas City Royals don't have a very good pitching staff on their own, and your left with mostly speculation. However, in the first couple games of the season, Minnesota has shown discipline, power, and production at the plate. Betting on that to cease is probably a fool's errand.

A year ago, the Twins were 16th in MLB scoring 722 runs, and that mark was good enough for just ninth in the American League. From an OPS perspective, Minnesota checked in at just 8th in the American League, and 13th overall. They clubbed exactly 200 homers (12th in MLB), and drew 513 walks (13th). As a whole, the Twins were average at best, and with a poor pitching staff, that just wasn't going to get it done.

Noting the development and progression I spoke of earlier, expecting a slight jump into the top third of both the big leagues and the American League is a realistic bet for Minnesota. They had just two players (Dozier and Sano) hit 20+ longballs last season, and that number should almost certainly double in 2017. Dozier and Sano remain candidates to repeat, with Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and ByungHo Park realistic candidates to join them. There's no doubt this team will strike out, but as evidenced in their second game of the year, they'll take free passes on bad pitching (Twins drew 9 walks against Kansas City).

As with the bulk of Major League Baseball teams, the Twins will only go as far as their pitching is going to carry them in 2017, but their offense will provide plenty of opportunities. 2016 was a historically bad year on the mound, so that in and of itself has some real room to reverse its course. Combined with better defense, especially in the outfield, and the expectation that pitching with leads will be more common, this club could provide some fireworks.

Early on this year, Paul Molitor has displayed a welcomed ability to understand that lineup effectiveness can be bolstered against different handed pitchers. He has new voices like James Rowson and Jeff Pickler to aide him, along with a front office that is well equipped to help him put his own best foot forward.

In short, 2017 still has plenty of questions for the Twins to answer, but whether or not the offense will be an effective one, is not among them.

So You Wanna Make A Bet: 2017 Minnesota Twins

With Opening Day of the 2017 Major League Baseball season upon us, it's time to take a look at what could be ahead for the home nine. There's plenty of projection systems out there giving us indications of what may happen, but only through a sports book can you make concrete guesses that equal out to dollars and cents. It's time to take a look at the over/unders for all things Twins related.

Pulled from Bovada, there's both individual as well as team specific over/unders for the 2017 season. Although the Twins don't have anywhere close to a national following, there's still a good number of big name players with specific achievements tabulated for them. Whether $5 or $500, here's your guide as to where you confidence should lie while putting up some cash on the Twinkies.

Brian Dozier HRs 29.5

Coming off a campaign in which he launched 42 longballs, Brian Dozier is in for some regression. The question that needs to be answered, is how far backwards does the Twins second basemen go? In 2016, he became the only player not named Harmon Killebrew to hit 40 HRs in a season for Minnesota. Prior to that effort, he launched 23 and 28 respectively. In 2016, Dozier's HR/FB% was a career best 18.4% and well off his 12.7% career mark. If there's a Twins player I'm betting on hitting 30 homers in 2017, it's a husky 3B, not Dozier.

Bet: Under 4* (Based on a 1* to 5* confidence rating)

Ervin Santana Wins 10.5

A year ago, the Twins had the worst starting staff in the big leagues. Not one pitcher picked up more than nine wins, and that was from Tyler Duffey, who was sent to Triple-A at one point. In two seasons with Minnesota, Santana has yet to record double-digit wins (albeit his 2015 was shortened). This season, he should have a solid offense behind him, but the question has to be in regards to how many leads the early season bullpen gives up. Pitcher wins are a fickle stat, and on a bad staff, I want no part of them.

Bet: Under 2*

Joe Mauer AVG .270

It's been three years since Joe Mauer has finished a season with an average north of .270. In 2014, the former MVP batted .277 with a .732 OPS across 120 G for the Twins. This season, Paul Molitor has talked plenty about how he'll need to give his first basemen regular rest, and target a lesser load to get the best out of him. If that is followed through upon, Mauer has a chance to put up his best season since being an All Star in 2013. Mauer is a Gold Glove caliber first basemen that just can't play every day anymore, Should Minnesota use Mauer correctly, and more against RHPs (.793 OPS vs RHP .610 OPS vs LHP in 2016), then he has a very realistic shot to impress.

Bet: Over 3*

Max Kepler HR 17.5

This is one of the most interesting numbers in the set. Kepler is not a traditional power hitter in that his swing is more reflective of a smooth stroke that simply runs into the ball. I like Kepler a lot, and think he'll make a nice career of doing damage in the gaps. He blasted 17 homers in just 113 games a year ago, and should have more opportunities this season. Kepler's lobgalls came in bunches though, and bolstered by a three-HR game, he hit 12 in a 26 game span. I'll go out on a limb here and say Byron Buxton hits more longballs than the German in 2017.

Bet: Under 2*

Miguel Sano HR 29.5

Do you know what the Twins third basemen is going to do a lot of in 2017? He's going to strike out. Miguel Sano is also going to send a lot of baseballs into the stratosphere. Last season, in 116 games, Sano hit 25 homers. Over that time, he was told to learn a new (and odd) position, and he wasn't healthy for a good portion of the season. Regardless of the setbacks, Sano came up just five dingers shy of the 30 mark. In 2017, I'd expect Sano to strike out no less than 200 times, but when he hits 35 homers, it's not going to matter much.

Bet: Over 4*

Minnesota Twins Wins 74.5

Wrapping up the list is the team number. Coming off of a 103 loss season, winning 75 games seems like a massive jump. The reality though, is that the 2016 outfit wasn't anything significantly different than the 2015 team that won 83 games. If there's something of a wildcard here, I think it's Paul Molitor. He's mismanaged his lineup and bullpen for some time, and that's going to cost a team needing to steal wins. At the end of the day though, I think the Twins have a better chance at winning 80 games, than I see them losing 90.

Bet: Over 3*

Dozier And The Regression That May Be Minor

Last season, Brian Dozier swatted 42 homers for the Minnesota Twins and entered the franchise record books with the most for any player not named Harmon Killebrew. To say the second basemen from Mississippi had a good year would be the undersell of the decade. It immediately made Dozier the Twins hottest commodity, and nearly found him playing in a new uniform. Now back for 2017, what does the upcoming year look like?

Honestly, I'm not sure you could've found a writer more all over the board on Dozier than I was a season ago. From wondering if he was cooked, to enjoying the heights of his success, I simply jump at every inclination and tried to run with it. In reality, I think Brian Dozier solidified who he has matured into, and that gives us some really strong insight as to what lies ahead.

Looking at the past three seasons, Dozier has compiled a .249/.330/.469 slash line. He's averaged 31 homers a season, and has totaled three straight 100 run years. While the .268/.340/.546 slash line with 42 bombs in 2016 was something of a marvel, it wasn't all that far off from what he's made a living out of.

When it comes to regression, there's some really positive signs for Dozier. While his .280 BABIP was a career high, and 19 points higher than the 2015 season, it was backed by a career best 34.7 hard hit rate. In 2016, Dozier generated substantially less line drives (15.9% down from 22.6% and 19.9% in 2015 and 2014 respectively), but posted a career best 47.7 fly ball rate. Given 18.4% of his fly balls left the yard, he's benefited from the reality that getting the ball in the air plays in the big league. Also, bucking the notion that he's a dead pull guy, Dozier decreased his pull percentage to 56.4% after posting a 60.2% mark in 2015.

Despite elevating the ball more, and smashing it over the fence, Dozier has also remained generally within himself when it comes to his approach. He posted a 79% contact rating last season, which was a career low, but not far off from his 82.1% career average. He also swung and missed 9.1% of the time, which was a career high, but is somewhat expected given the power surge. Playing in just two less games than the 2015 season, he struck out ten less times while walking exactly the same amount.

Outside of the plate production, Dozier actually picked it up in the field as well. 2015 marked just the first time in his career that the Twins second basemen posted a negative DRS number. After being at -5 two seasons ago, Dozier pulled off an 8 run swing generating a 3 DRS mark in 2016. At second, Dozier came through on the highest percentage of routine plays during his career, while making 45% of the 20 plays deemed "unlikely" to generate outs.

Since 2013, after moving to second base full time, Dozier has been a positive fWAR player. The 2.5 fWAR he posted in his first season at second was respectable enough, but it's only taken off from there. Although he's not going to be nearly a 6.0 fWAR player yearly, expecting him to post a couple more seasons north of 4.0 fWAR is a good bet.

I think what we're looking at is a player that entered into a late prime given a positional switch and debut timeline. Brian Dozier isn't going to generate MVP votes on a yearly basis, but expecting him to fall off some proverbial cliff from his 2016 doesn't seem like a good bet. He's still a player that needs to avoid the deep slumps, but he's one completely capable of carry this Twins team.

Despite losing 103 games a season ago, Paul Molitor's roster is far from talentless, and they probably aren't as far away as some would assume. If Dozier can continue to be virtually what he has been for the past three or four years, the Twins should have no problem tabbing him as a yearly team MVP contender. Sure, his value and production may never be higher than the height it saw post 2016, but I'm not sure it's going to be significantly lower either.