These 62 Twins Seem More Realistic

Through the beginning of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins were the worst team in baseball. Paul Molitor's club lost their first nine games, and they were competing on a nightly basis with the Atlanta Braves to see who could pile up losses at a faster pace. Over the past 62 games though, the Twins have looked like a much better representation of what should have happened this season.

Out of the gates, things were bad for the Twins. Through the end of June, Minnesota owned a -112 run differential and an ugly 25-53 record. It wasn't a much better situation than their 11-34 start through the initial 45 games of the season. A team that was expected to be carried by youngsters and supplemented by veterans had fallen flat in every imaginable way.

Recently though, a significant corner has been turned. Sure, over the past few days in Cleveland, the Twins have set the world on fire. They've scored double-digit runs in three straight games for the first time dating back to 2010. Despite facing one of the best pitching teams in the big leagues, Minnesota has made waves with offense.

It's not tied completely to the output in Cleveland though. Across their past 62 games, Paul Molitor's club has played what breaks down to .500 baseball. They are 32-30 in that span, and have been even better of late. Since July, Minnesota owns an 18-11 record and has outscored opponents by 44 runs. The turnaround has been drastic, but it's been more indicative of what should have been expected from the get go.

Sure, Brian Dozier hitting over .300 since June 1 is probably something nobody saw coming. Max Kepler was expected to be a solid contributor, heck I called him a dark horse for the American League Rookie of the Year, but what he's doing now far surpasses those expectations. While the script has been completely flipped, it's the sum of those parts that lands somewhere that it really should be.

Coming into the season, Minnesota was seen by many around Twins Territory as a potential playoff team. After making a late season run a year ago that was masked somewhat substantially by luck, the playoffs as a possibility may have been a fools errand from the get go. More realistically, this group could've been cast as a competitive club that hung right around the .500 mark for most of the season. The AL Central didn't have anybody that was seemingly going to light the world on fire, and Molitor's group could settle in somewhere in the middle.

After getting off to such a poor start, the hole this team dug itself was substantial. If for no other reason, the struggle costing Terry Ryan his job was a necessary evil. The organization needs to clean house and build differently for the future. That being said, continuing at a blistering pace (as has been the case over the past month or so), is less important that simply staying the course.

Should the Twins be able to finish out the final two months of the season playing competitive baseball and toeing the .500 line, you can look back at 2016 as a significantly different season than it appeared destined to be. While not at all where the club wants to be right now, there's a lot less negativity at this point than there was just a matter of weeks ago.

In short, this Twins club is much more the team it was the past 62 games than it was the first 45. What remains over the course of the final 55 is yet to be determined, but continuing to fall somewhere in the middle ground is a pretty good bet.

Kepler's Power Is A Product Of Process

When looking at the 2016 Minnesota Twins, there's been plenty to be down about. The majority of the season has been spent in the cellar, and the club has failed to live up to its lofty expectations. Now in August though, the biggest storyline of late for this group is the emergence of Max Kepler. The German born prospect has burst onto the scene, and his power has been on full display. The question though is whether or not it should have been expected.

Kepler was signed by the Twins as an amateur free agent and debuted in the organization at the age of 17 in the 2010 season. He played three seasons at the rookie level before heading to Cedar Rapids in 2013. At the end of 2015, Kepler made his major league debut with the Twins, and was considered to be a semi-regular contributor for Paul Molitor's team this season. Throughout his minor league tenure though, he flashed speed and positional flexibility. He displayed gap power, but had never hit more than 10 home runs in a single season (back in 2012 for Elizabethton).

Looking back at some of Kepler's scouting grades as displayed by Fangraphs, there's plenty of room for the ceiling to be raised. On the 20-80 scouting scale, Kepler was seen as just a 45 future value player. His game power was graded out to top out at 50, in line with his raw power. Kepler has above average speed, but was always expected to play on the corners more than up the middle in the outfield. Fast forward to where we are now, and it's looking like a re-evaluation may be needed.

Through 63 games with the Twins this season, Kepler owns a .903 OPS and has hit 15 home runs. Using ISO (which measures raw power by excluding singles), Kepler's .302 mark (had he qualified) is good enough for 3rd in the major leagues behind only David Ortiz (.319) and Jake Lamb (.305). What Kepler is doing though in hitting home runs, isn't a vastly different from his typical approach.

At the plate, Kepler has hit for average at nearly every level in his big league career. His swing plane and quick hands allow him to get the bat head to the baseball, and then drive through the hitting zone at an accelerated pace. He can cover the inside of the plate, while sitting back on pitches and going the other was as well. As a whole, Kepler's approach has been conducive to gap power throughout his career, but more could have always been predicted.

In the minor leagues, Kepler was doing most of the work. Although he'd face pitchers throwing in the mid to high 90s at times, that's typically not the norm. At contact point, it was Kepler's swing and bat providing most of the reaction force and energy put into the baseball. Now at the big league level, his quick hands still getting to the baseball, are meeting pitches in the mid 90s on a regular basis, and the result are balls put in play at a significantly harder speed.

Max Kepler's launch angle on HR

To further illustrate exactly what I'm explaining, we need to look no further than the launch angles of Max Kepler's home runs. Over the course of his 15 home runs hit during 2016, Kepler has hit just three home runs with a launch angle over 30 degrees. With 12 of his home runs coming in at launch angles below 30 degrees, he's also parked three dingers that have had launch angles below 20 degrees. What that tells us is that Kepler's point of contact cuts the ball in half, providing a more powerful line drive result as opposed to a looping longball.

On top of his launch angle, Kepler's exit velocity numbers have been indicative of a line drive swing as well. Seven of his 15 homers have been hit with exit velocities over 100 miles per hour, with three of them clocking in at 105+. Looking at his production as a whole, Kepler has put 160 balls in play this season. 23 of them have had exit velocities over 105 mph, and he's yet to fly out on a single one of those occasions. When expanding the exit velocity to at least 100 mph, Kepler has hit 28% (44-160) of his batted balls at that speed.

Kepler's spray chart for balls w/ 105+ mph exit velo

With 40.6% of his batted balls put in play with "hard" contact, Max Kepler ranks 24th among MLB hitters with at least 160 plate appearances. In the American League alone, that number ranks him 8th. Despite just a 15.8% line drive rate, Kepler has hit fly balls just 39.2% of the time, and 24.2% of the time those fly balls turn into home runs. Once again, his power reflects a compact and powerful swing that uses what effort pitchers put forth and translates it into results.

At the end of the day, Max Kepler has been everything the Twins could have hoped for and more this season. His 15 home runs through 63 games give him a 39 HR/162 average. That's probably an unrealistic total to expect. What isn't unfair though, is to assume that if Kepler is able to repeat his consistent swing process while replicating his hand path and swing plane, plenty of consistently hard contact will be made. As we've seen thus far in 2016, that can lead to results that plenty likely would have considered out of reach.

Max Kepler is dropping bombs all over major league ballparks right now, and if he continues to make contact as he has, you'd be foolish to bet on that ceasing any time soon.

All charts provided courtesy of BaseballSavant.com

Brian Dozier's Silent Asset

It's been a unconventional season for the Minnesota Twins second basemen. While the club raced out to the worst record in the major leagues, it was Brian Dozier that was struggling right along with the majority of the group. Typically know to fade down the stretch, Dozier's bat didn't seem to ever make the transition to games that counted. Now he's turned a massive corner, but there's more to the narrative than the offensive production.

Trying to overstate just how bad Dozier was for the Twins out of the gate it probably a fools errand. He was batting .191 to end the season's first month, and in the lead up to his eventual benching following the May 22nd game, he was batting a dismal .199/.284/.318. Paul Molitor sat Dozier down for the next two games, the final of which he made a late inning appearance in. There were calls for him to head back to Rochester (although never realistic), and patience had grown thin. It was there though that Dozier appeared to have turned a corner.

Returning to the Twins lineup in his normal role on May 25, Dozier has since started all 60 of the games he's played in. Across that time, he's slashed .296/.367/.587 with 16 doubles, three triples, and 15 homers. With an OPS of .954 over the past two months, Dozier has been one of the Twins and baseball's most impressive hitters.

Lost in all of the offensive production is just how drastic the disciplinary change Dozier has made at the plate has been. A season ago, Dozier set the Minnesota Twins single season record for strikeouts with 148. He'd never fanned more than 129 times in a season, and his 61 walks in 2015 were a significant drop-off from the 89 totaled just a season prior. This year though, Dozier has turned a corner in both departments. Through 105 games (playing in 100) Dozier has struck out on 73 occasions while walking 41 times. That puts him on pace to fan just 113 times (a career best), and draw 63 walks.

The change in plate discipline has lent itself to a heightened level of productivity for the Twins second basemen. He's currently enjoying a career best .257 batting average while producing an .817 OPS, another career mark. Even with his troublesome mark, Dozier's improvements are evident in the numbers supporting the output. He's swinging and missing just 7.7% of the time (down from 9.0% in 2015), and he's chasing out of the zone just 27.7% of the time (just off of his 27.6% career mark set in 2014).

At his core, Brian Dozier has an always will be a dead pull hitter. He sells out to generate power, and he's made a career out of it. In 2016, he's generating a career best 29.9% hard hit rate, while using the middle of the field 32.2% of the time (his highest since 2013). Although his spray chart is essentially a reflection of his career output, the ability to wait pitchers out, not swing and miss, and get his pitch has translated into a resurgence that could not have been predicted.

I've been all over the place trying to figure Dozier out this season. The numbers early said to wait it out, while I wondered if his approach had become an all out sellout, and that he might be cooked. As the dust begins to settle though, it appeared all Dozier needed was for his approach to translate into results.

Expecting a career .242 hitter to continue plugging away at a near .300 pace might be a tough ask. Right now though, Dozier has produced a 2.6 fWAR to lead the Twins, and is on pace to turn in his second best season as a big leaguer (behind only his All Star season).

Should Dozier continue to show a greater plate discipline, he'll find himself with plenty of opportunities to get his pitch, and you can bet he'll deposit it into the left field bleachers more often than not. The production numbers have been great for the Twins two-bagger, but it's also been fun to see a big leaguer make the adjustment to dictate at bats, and force pitchers to make mistakes.

Antony Makes Waves At Deadline

The dust has settled and the Minnesota Twins have wrapped up the 2016 Major League Baseball trade deadline. In total, the interim GM Rob Antony made three moves, two of which were completed on the final day.

First and foremost, the Twins flipped 2016 "All Star" Eduardo Nunez to the San Francisco Giants for Adalberto Mejia. Nunez was playing well above expectations this season for the Twins and needed to be moved. He fits as a utility guy on a winning team, and that's what the Twins were able to do with him. In getting Mejia back, the club picked up a top 100 prospect. That's something that would never have been expected to start the year, but the sellers have been doing well for themselves this season.

On deadline day, Antony started out by dealing one of three players I opined were "must move" types. Fernando Abad was a shrewd pickup by former GM Terry Ryan, and had played himself into an ideal situation for Minnesota. Owning a sub 3.00 ERA and dominating lefties on the year, he gets to head to a playoff team and be a solid left-handed option for them. In return, the Twins get a guy they drafted back in 2009. Pat Light throws nearly 100 mph and has strikeout stuff. Unfortunately his control has been pretty awful, but he could show up in the Twins pen as early as 2016.

Then there was the biggest move of the day for Minnesota. After being linked to the Los Angeles Angels all winter regarding Trevor Plouffe, the two clubs finally worked out a deal. This one however was focused solely around pitchers. The Twins shed Ricky Nolasco and his ugly contract, but had to throw in former top prospect Alex Meyer as well. In return, they get major league starter Hector Santiago, and Triple-A reliever Alan Busenitz.

On the surface, I really dislike the final trade. Nolasco has been horrible for the Twins, and getting rid of his contract is a big plus. However, I still am of the belief that Alex Meyer has been poorly handled by the Twins and has more ability than he's been given the opportunity to show. Regardless, Hector Santiago is a nice parting gift from the Angels, and is a decent back end big league starter. He gives up way too many homers, but he's also got peripherals that are better together than what Nolasco has offered Minnesota.

If the Angels are able to fix Meyer, which requires him being healthy and consistent, than this trade could look pretty bad. It's been met with a ton of praise in the twittersphere, and shedding Nolasco's contract is the big reason for that. At this point, it appeared Meyer wasn't going to get a shot with the Twins long term anyways, so I can work through my own demons in accepting the deal.

To wrap up what the Twins did, we have to touch on the two pieces that were on my "must move" list and stayed put. Both Kurt Suzuki and Brandon Kintzler had little to no value for Minnesota now or going forward, and Antony failed to capitalize on that. Suzuki is a free agent at season's end, and being one of the hottest hitting catchers, should have been dealt for any return possible. Removing Kintzler from the 25 man would've given Minnesota the opportunity to promote Chargois, and now it appears that will have to wait.

At the end of the day, Rob Antony's first (and likely only) trade deadline is going to draw positive reviews from most. I'll consider myself in the lukewarm to positive group. I'm glad the Twins moved Nunez and Abad, but think it's a pretty big miss not to unload both Suzuki and Kintzler. I can get behind the Nolasco deal if Meyer is really cooked, but can't yet bring myself to believe that.

If this is Antony's one audition in doing this thing for real, he didn't take any steps backwards. His returns were about as expected in the sellers market. Regardless, the landscape for the Twins going forward is a very mediocre team that needs to see what it has for the year ahead. Continue to promote from within, and get those you're going to rely on a year from now ready.

Twins Flip Abad For Pat Light

As the Minnesota Twins barrel towards the trade deadline, there's been three players I've been adamant on needing to be moved by August 1st at 3pm central time. The group includes Brandon Kintzler, Kurt Suzuki, and Fernando Abad. Three hours prior to the deadline, Minnesota has moved the last name on that list.

Fernando Abad was a non-roster invite to Twins big league spring training. He was lit up for the Athletics last year, but Minnesota was confident he was tipping his pitches. Needing lefty relievers, and jettisoning Brian Duensing, it appeared that Abad had a lock for the pen from the get go. It turns out that Minnesota was smart to bet on Abad.

I wrote a piece not too long ago about Terry Ryan's ability to snag guys on minor league deals. Abad is the latest to fall into that category. He turned in a shiny 2.65 ERA across 34.0 IP for Minnesota. Abad dominated lefties and was capable against righties. He gave Minnesota everything they could have expected from him, and then he became expendable.

On a team destined to lose 90 games, Abad has no place on Paul Molitor's club. He's arbitration eligible a year from now, but he's taking a roster spot from up and coming relievers in the Twins system that could use the final months of the season to develop. Interim GM Rob Antony flipped him over to the Boston Red Sox, a team that makes a ton of sense. Abad projects as a nice lefty out of the pen, and fits in well for a team that has serious playoff implications in its future.

In return for Abad, the Twins get the Red Sox 14th overall (per MLB Pipeline) prospect, Pat Light. Light was drafted by the Twins in the 28th round of the 2009 draft out of high school but didn't sign. He was taken 37th overall in the 2012 draft by the Red Sox and has served as the Triple-A closer this year.

Light has struck out 10.5 batters per nine this season, and he has the stuff to push it up to 100 mph. I saw him recently at Pawtucket, and he made striking out the likes of Rochester Red Wings batters look easy. He has walked nearly 5.0 batters per nine this season however, so control issues are definitely a concern for him.

At some point in 2016, the expectation should be that light will appear in the Twins pen. He's a nice piece, and he gives the Twins added relief depth. For a team that has failed to put strike throwers in their pen for quite some time, the winds appear to be shifting. If Minnesota can hone in Light's control, this acquisition could look even better.

Vargas Turning A Corner?

The Minnesota Twins have taken their lumps for the majority of the 2016 Major League Baseball season. Racing towards 100 loses, the results have been anything but favorable for Paul Molitor's club. There have been some individual bright spots though, and one of the quietest comes in the form of first basemen Kennys Vargas.

After Byung Ho Park was signed over the offseason, the Twins logjam at first base and designated hitter only got more complicated. Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, and Park all presented moths to feed. After Park struggled and was sent packing to Triple-A Rochester, it was Vargas who took over in the interim. What's happened since however, is that Kennys Vargas has grabbed the job with a stranglehold, and appears determined to keep it.

Looking at expectations of Vargas, I've long considered him a bench bat. He's a mediocre first basemen, and his swing and miss tendencies have never looked like they'll equate to a guy who can get on base. Surprisingly though, Vargas has bucked that trend this season.

Now, let's preface all of this with the fact that Vargas' time with the Twins in 2016 has totaled an 18 game sample size. However, those 18 games have been significantly better than anything we've seen from him before. To set the stage, here's his first 18 games at the big league level each of the past three seasons:

• 2014: .292 3 HR 19/3 K/BB
• 2015: .194 1 HR 21/5 K/BB
• 2016: .333 4 HR 18/13 K/BB

Power and average numbers aside, the final ratio is of the utmost importance. In his time with the Twins this season, Vargas has displayed a level of plate discipline that we've yet to see from him. He's striking out in 24.3% of the time this season, which is a new career best, but his walk rate has been incredible. After walking just 5.1% of the time in 2014, and 4.9% a year ago, he's currently walking 17.6% of the time in 2016. That number is in line with what he's done at Triple-A, and would no doubt help to bolster all of his production at the big league level.

Then there's how he is putting the ball in play. Prior to this season, Vargas' hard hit percentage has topped out at 30.8%. He's also never had a HR/FB rate better than 17.9%. In 2016, he's making hard contact 44.2% of the time while his fly balls are leaving the yard 22.2% of the time. Both are career highs and significant jumps from where he has been previously.

Now, there's some reason to believe that this all may be a mirage. First and foremost, it's an 18 game sample size. Secondly though, Vargas is currently enjoying the fruits of a .410 BABIP. That level of production isn't realistic to sustain, but the secondary numbers suggest that Vargas could continue to be an asset. If he's going to work counts, draw walks, and demolish baseballs when putting them in the field of play, his average will continue to be well above where it has been previously.

At the end of the day, Kennys Vargas' opportunity came at the expense of Byung Ho Park being sent to Triple-A. Right now, Park is mashing for Rochester and is begging for a call up. As long as Vargas is producing though, the Twins are going to be hard pressed to remove him from the lineup. With him being out of options a year from now, it's important that he continue to show value in every chance he gets.

Hopefully the next 18 games are as good as the first 18 have been for Kennys.

Nunez Makes Antony Look Good

It's July 2016 and there's a significant contingent of people that are willing to describe Eduardo Nunez first and foremost as an All Star. They aren't wrong, but it's also far from indicative as to what kind of baseball player he is. Somehow though, in his first move as Interim General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Rob Antony turned that phrase (and Nunez), into a top 100 prospect prior to the August 1 trade deadline.

The San Francisco Giants were looking for a utility player that could fill in at third base while Matt Duffy is coming back from an injury. Passing up on the likes of Steve Pearce (who has played just 12 MLB games at the hot corner) the Giants landed on Nunez. By definition, they landed an All Star, but it's hard not to be excited about how the Twins orchestrated this maneuver.

An All Star for no other reason than the mandatory Major League Baseball rule that every team have a representative at the mid-summer classic, Nunez has been worth just 1.6 fWAR on the season. He's hit well above his career average, but his line since June 1st equates to a paltry .680 OPS. Despite an incredibly strong start, Nunez has regressed back towards his career average, and really, he's sunk below even that.

Defensively, the hope is that Nunez can fill in for the Giants while they nurse guys back from injury, and then turn into a super utility role. As a regular, he's far from reliable. Nunez doesn't have a single infield position in which he hasn't tallied a negative defensive runs saved mark over his career. His defense in fact, is simply why he's been cast as little more than a bench bat and utility player for the bulk of his time in the majors.

At 29 years old, and with his best moments likely behind him, Nunez was never going to be a part of the Twins future. His value to the club had run it's course, and the best thing to do was clear way for more effective additions to the 25 man roster. The thought was opening up a spot for a player such as Jorge Polanco, no matter what the return, makes moving Nunez a win.

Rob Antony did better than that though.

In a situation where he could have been happy with a warm body or a bag of balls, Antony turned Nunez into a top 100 prospect. Adalberto Mejia was recently ranked as the 91st best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. He was graded out as the Giants 7th best prospect by MLB Pipeline, and he's supposedly got a three pitch mix that should equate into a back end of the rotation starter. There's potential that he reaches the big leagues this year, and even if he doesn't expecting Mejia to compete for a 2017 rotation spot seems more than plausible.

I had long suggested that Nunez belonged as a utility player on a winning team. He was a luxury that the Twins didn't need, nor did they have room for. Destined for at least 90 losses, a mediocre utility player that parlayed a good couple of months into an All Star appearance is not a necessity. With future pieces being held back, removing Nunez from the 25 man was an absolute must.

Sometimes the benefit of a trade is simply clearing space, and Minnesota could've been happy accomplishing just that in dealing their helmet-losing utility man. Instead, allowing Nunez to paint himself into a top 100 prospect with some project ability, this looks about as good as it can get for Antony and the Twins.

Now the question becomes, who's next. Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler both fit similar molds to Nunez. Neither are future pieces, and there's relief arms ready. Moving them to open the roster up needs to be a priority, but if Antony can spin anymore value there, well then it wouldn't be the first time right?