Do The Twins Need Relief?

In 2017, one of the greatest deficiencies for the Minnesota Twins was the lack of quality relief pitching. While the starting rotation left plenty to be desired on its own, it was the bullpen that generally provided little in the way of resistance when tasked to come in and back up a start. Minnesota needs to address that this offseason, but what if they don't look anywhere but within?

Over the course of the early offseason, I've considered plenty of different ways the Twins could spend their dollars and roster openings. I'd argue that a starting pitcher is a must (with a second having a decent amount of potential). A right handed bat, with some positional flexibility could be a nice add as well. Initially, my thought was that the Twins would be best served to bring in two relief options, but what if they shifted to add no one at all.

Currently, the 40 man roster has 17 relievers on it. Those players will be shifted in the coming weeks as some will be reinstated, others will become free agents, some will be DFA'd, and one may even retire. Looking at that group, and what isn't on the 40 man however, the Twins glaring need may be less significant than one would imagine.

Starting with one of the most missed pieces from 2016, Trevor May re-enters the fold for the 2018 season. He'll have missed a year due to Tommy John surgery, and he'll need to work back towards what he was. However, out of the bullpen, his 12.7 K/9 was elite, and while the 3.6 BB/9 wasn't ideal, it was the longball that bit him. I'm not sure if May's back issues will allow him to be a full time reliever, but if he can get right in the pen, he could definitely be a weapon for Paul Molitor.

Joining May on the reinstatement train from the 60-day DL is J.T. Chargois. Had he been healthy in 2017, it's all but guaranteed he would've recorded a few save opportunities. He's got the stuff that should play as a big league closer, and there's real velocity there. Chargois is among the many touted relief options from the Twins prospect lists over the past few years, and seeing him bear fruit would be a welcomed addition.

Rounding out the trio of guys on the 60-day DL is Ryan O'Rourke. Unlike Chargois, velocity is hardly O'Rourke's game, but he's lethal against lefties. The southpaw held opposing lefties to a .359 OPS in 2016, and was definitely missed by the Minnesota bullpen this year. There's other guys that have stepped in during his absence, but if used correctly in relief, O'Rourke could put up some really flashy numbers.

Outside of those returning from injuries, options like Gabriel Moya and Randy Rosario were given a taste of the highest level this season. Moya has had significant success on the farm, and Rosario has flashed plus stuff in relief as well. Whether they are given a shot, and stick like Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger remains to be seen however.

Venturing from the 40 man roster, the Twins have a couple of high ceiling options that have yet to reach their projections. First and foremost, Tyler Jay enters the picture. Having been drafted as a reliever, converted to a starter, and now working in relief again, the former first round pick could turn out to be a weapon. Velocity rises in short bursts, and he's put up solid performances throughout his Arizona Fall League action this year. Minnesota may not be ready to give up on him as a starter yet, but if he's healthy, getting him to help the big league club in whatever way possible is a must.

The duo of Jake Reed and Nick Burdi were once the next best thing coming to the Twins pen, and their steam has somewhat cooled. While Burdi missed all year due to Tommy John surgery, Reed started late and never was able to get his footing. Both throw gas and have a keen ability to miss bats. There's nothing the Twins need more than the ideal version of these two pitching in the late innings for them. Should Reed and Burdi breakthrough this season, it could arguably the greatest offseason pickup for the big league club.

By my count, there's at least eight internal options vying for a spot, and each of them have significant upside. With something like three or four relief spots likely claimed already, that provides plenty of competition to fight things out. That being said, each of the aforementioned names come with serious question marks. The Twins will have to decide if they are willing to commit to a player potentially blocking an internal option, or if they believe in some of the names above to break through.

During free agency, the best relief names aren't going to be actively seeking out one year deals. The hope would be that the organization would aim higher than a Matt Belisle type if they're going to bring someone in, but there's lots of caveats that come with such a move. It's certain that the hometown nine needs some bullpen help, but navigating how to go about getting it is anyone's guess.

Bregman Hits Home For Twins

On Monday June 8, 2015 the Houston Astros franchise changed. Really, every franchise across Major League Baseball changed as they added an influx of new talent through the First-Year player draft. Houston though, selected a shortstop from LSU with the second overall pick, and Alex Bregman set forth on a path that would greatly enhance the Astros future.

In this same draft, the Twins would select 6th overall. Following the selections of three collegiate players and two high-schoolers, they chose left-handed pitcher Tyler Jay. While Jay had served only as a closer at the University of Illinois, the thought was that he could be developed into a top tier starter for Minnesota. It was considered somewhat of a puzzling pick at the time, and Jay has yet to bear fruit at the big league level. That said, the jury isn't out on him yet, but that also isn't the story here.

The 2015 draft had plenty of talent throughout that first round. Dansby Swanson led a strong Braves system for some time, Brendan Rodgers looks the part of a game-changer for the Rockies, and Andrew Benintendi would've been the American League Rookie of the Year had Aaron Judge not existed. All of those things are true, but the focus here is on Bregman, his position, and how he ties into the Minnesota Twins.

Drafted as a shortstop out of Louisiana State, Bregman entered an organization that employed a 20 year-old Rookie of the Year named Carlos Correa. While Correa is a bigger shortstop at 6'4" 215 lbs, he's handled the position just fine defensively, and his .863 OPS is an incredible asset at one of baseball's most demanding positions. The Astros though weren't only rich in terms of Correa up the middle, there was a glut of options. Jose Altuve is going to hold down second base until he retires, and the combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar both looked more than capable for Houston.

In 2016, Bregman played in 49 games for Houston, spending just a total of 146 games on the farm. His .891 OPS at the minor league level was more than suggestive of a new challenge. At the big league level, Bregman debuted with a .791 OPS that was bolstered by strong slugging numbers. The K/BB ratio (52/15) left plenty to be desired, and both his average (.264) and OBP (.313) sagged because of it. With so much raw talent however, the belief was that 2017 could represent a breakout year.

After a spring training that included time with Team USA during the World Baseball Classic, Bregman was set to be the Astros every day third basemen. Recently acquired Yuli Gurriel would move to first, and the Houston infield was set. In 155 games this season, Bregman posted an .827 OPS and turned in a respectable 2:1 K/BB rate (97/55). His average and OBP jumped significantly, and he became yet another asset for the Astros. Drafted as a shortstop, he played third, short, and second base in Houston during 2017.

Looking at the Astros top 30 prospects as ranked by MLB.com currently, their 12th, 17th, and 24th best players are all shortstops. Despite having arguably the best infield in baseball, there's still talent behind them. This is where the Twins correlation comes into play.

With plenty of talk regarding the selection of Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick this season, Minnesota now boasts shortstops with it's #1, 2, 5, and 26 best prospects per MLB.com. The idea that there is a need to figure out where the can all play becomes immediately laughable. What Bregman and the Astros have once again displayed, is that talent can slot in anywhere.

More often than not, shortstops and centerfielders are among the best players on a 25 man roster. Minnesota boasts an elite centerfielder in Byron Buxton, but there's plenty of room for a talent rich farm system to bear fruit at the next level. Lewis, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios, Luis Arraez, and Jelfry Marte all working out for the Twins would be among the best problems to have. Although there's only room for one person to play shortstop at a time, generating a 25 man roster with the best overall talent you possess is a great blueprint for success.

At some point, Minnesota will need to figure out how Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis can all coexist. There's a second wave of talent behind them that can factor in soon enough as well. While that is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will be tasked with deciphering, it's hardly a problem that the Twins would rather not have.

Entering the 2015 Major League Baseball draft, Alex Bregman probably had dreams of making a deep jump throw from the hole a la Derek Jeter. When he was taken by the Astros, he probably considered the current state of the infield being locked down up the middle for some time to come. On October 30th 2017 however, he's got dreams of two incredible throws to home from the hot corner, and a World Series ring well within his sights.

Drafting for talent will never hurt you in baseball, and both the Astros and Twins would love to have a plethora of Alex Bregman's lined up to fill a spot.

The Gold Glove Falls Flat Again

Today, Rawlings released the finalists for the American and National League Gold Glove Award. The awards are voted on by each manager and their coaching staff via a balloting process. Over the years, the award has drawn plenty of criticism for poor selections, and too much of an offensive focus. For 2017, that couldn't be more true as Joe Mauer was omitted.

Yes, you read that correctly. Mauer not only didn't win the award, he wasn't even named a finalist.

Among the trio up for the award, you have the Red Sox Mitch Moreland, Indians Carlos Santana, and Royals Eric Hosmer. As I have been suggesting all year on Twitter, Mauer should've been considered a near favorite. The first two members of the trio were his competition, and Eric Hosmer belonged nowhere near the finish line.

While defensive metrics are hardly the sole criteria for the award, a defensively focused acknowledgment should account for them. Across the board, Mauer seemed to lead the pack. Here's how he ranked among his competition (note: There were 12 qualified 1B in the AL during 2017):

• Joe Mauer DRS t-2nd (7), UZR/150 1st (9.1), UZR 1st (7.1), RngR 1st (3.9)
• Mitch Moreland DRS 1st (10), UZR/150 2nd (5.8), UZR 3rd (4.0), RngR 3rd (2.4)
• Carlos Santana DRS 1st (10), UZR/150 3rd (4.7), UZR 2nd (4.8), RngR 4th (1.4)
• Eric Hosmer DRS 10th (-7), UZR/150 9th (-7), UZR 9th (-0.3), RngR 12th (-4.4)

Looking at the defensive metrics above, Mauer is evidently better across the board than each of his peers. While both Moreland and Santana come in close, it would seem that the overall strength of his range and ability make Mauer the favorite to win the 2017 Gold Glove. Although he doesn't see him as the favorite (Moreland is), Bill James also notes that the three finalists for the award are clearly Santana, Moreland, and Mauer.

Often, the debate whether or not hitting production be brought into the Gold Glove award is a talking point. Given the reality that the acknowledgment is for defensive prowess, it seems an odd proposition. For context though, here's how the four players looked offensively in 2017:

• Mauer .801 OPS 7 HR
• Moreland .769 OPS 22 HR
• Santana .818 OPS 23 HR
• Hosmer .882 OPS 25 HR

From a slugging perspective, Mauer has never (and will never) be the hulking first basemen type. He isn't going to launch 15-plus homers in his career ever again, and his offensive ability will forever be tied to his plate discipline and ability to get on base. Again however, the Gold Glove Award isn't supposed to be designed as a reflection of the total production from any position player.

At the end of the day, fans around Twins Territory have a legitimate gripe, and managers across baseball should be ashamed of their choices. Whether or not you put stock in sabermetrics, there isn't a single defensive statistic that views the Royals first basemen as anything but the lowest tier with his glove. While he does present a legitimate power bat, the Silver Slugger award shouldn't be carried into other voting circles.

Sometime following the World Series, an American League first basemen will be awarded the Gold Glove. With it not going to Mauer, a repeat performance for Mitch Moreland seems appropriate. Being robbed of the 1st catcher to ever win a Gold Glove at another position, and just the third player in baseball history to win the award at two positions, it's tough to see Mauer dealt this hand.

The evidence pointing towards Mauer being the American League's most elite first basemen was prevalent all throughout 2017. It's discouraging that coaches across the big leagues apparently missed that boat. Then again, Eric Hosmer has the name and the sexy numbers, so why not make the ignorant selection?

Cleaning Up The 40 Man

The Minnesota Twins, and really baseball as a whole, is just a matter of weeks away from making a flurry of transactions. With the World Series already underway, the rest of the baseball world will again be joined by the Astros and Dodgers in the offseason. For Minnesota, an anticipated break from baseball includes plenty of potential roster moves. First and foremost however, they need to make room.

Currently, the Twins have a full 40 man roster, with 45 players occupying some sort of a role. 40 players fill the roster, while an additional five find themselves in limbo on the 60 day disabled list. As the date to solidify the 40 man roster looms, Minnesota will have more than a few decisions to make. Way back in early August, I looked at the likely names Derek Falvey and Thad Levine need to find places for internally. Knowing some additional moves will come from outside of the organization, cleaning up spots is going to be a process.

Let's see how many we can free up with the exercise below.

Matt Belisle- RP

Belisle was signed to a one-year deal with the Twins, making him a free agent at season's end. He'll be 38 in 2018, and while he was strong down the stretch, Minnesota can likely look to improve the pen by bringing in a bit better option. Whether or not he's brought back remains to be seen, but his spot is open for now.

Buddy Boshers- RP

A former indy ball guy, Boshers has been a nice story for the Twins. The level of success hasn't been great, but he's been serviceable. Against lefties, he's fared just fine, and if kept, it would be for that reason. Like Belisle, Boshers is a spot the Twins could advance their pen by seeking a bit more.

Bartolo Colon- SP

It seems Colon is pretty determined to pitch next year, fulfilling a comment to his mother. That being said, it's almost certainly not going to be in a Twins uniform. He was a nice, steadying presence down the stretch, and despite some tough outings, was a needed arm in the rotation. He should have a nice farewell tour, and baseball will definitely smile upon him from afar.

Glen Perkins- RP

Minnesota has already informed Perkins they'll be declining his 2018 option. As a free agent, he could come back on what would likely be a minor league deal, or he could choose to hang em up. With the tonality surrounding the end of his 2017 season, it would appear his storied career will be laid to rest. In retirement, Perkins will go down as one of the best Twins relievers in history.

Michael Tonkin-

Recalled in September, Tonkin has largely failed to replicate his minor league numbers at the highest level. He throws relatively hard, and has a long lanky frame, but success hasn't followed him to Minnesota. Exposed and unclaimed previously, the Twins are probably not worried about passing him through again, regardless of the result.

Hector Santiago- SP

Coming over in exchange for Ricky Nolasco, Santiago was largely unhelpful. After finishing the 2017 season on the DL, and with the numbers he put up while healthy, there's next to no way Minnesota will have interest in a reunion tour. The organization has better starting options, and Santiago will look to continue his career elsewhere.

Kennys Vargas- 1B/DH

Out of options, Vargas no longer has protection from the organization. At 27 years old, he's never established himself as a big league hitter, and despite the big power beliefs, the production hasn't followed suit. A step back in 2017 didn't help his chances, and the inability to field at 1B at even an average level exposes his hitting prowess even further. He could be a useful bench bat for someone, but it doesn't look likely in Minnesota.

With just seven spots opened up, the Twins would have little wiggle room. The players above seem like near locks however, with the ones that follow providing a bit more uncertainty.

Nik Turley- SP/RP

In sporadic action for Minnesota this season, Turley turned in some mixed results. He had huge strikeout numbers down on the farm, and then was up and down at the highest level. There's better organizational starting options for 2018, but I think Turley can be useful in relief. The Twins could aim higher though, and that would likely make the lefty expendable.

Chris Gimenez- C

I'd imagine that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine intend to tender a new contract to the veteran backstop. Gimenez is a great clubhouse guy, and that's a notable part of a winning culture. It does seem time for Mitch Garver to step in on the big league roster however, which would make a light hitting, and an average-at-best defender like Gimenez, someone that Minnesota could move on from.

Dillon Gee- RP

There might not have been a more important arm for Minnesota down the stretch. After being held down at Triple-A for a bit too long. Gee provided value out of both the rotation and the bullpen. Going forward, he's an arm I like in a long relief role, but it will come down to preference. The Twins pen needs to be better, and having multiple mop up types isn't a recipe for success. There's a few guys vying for one spot, and Gee could be the odd man out.

Robbie Grossman- OF/DH

Another great, and often relatively unnoticed acquisition, Grossman provided Minnesota with plenty of value at the plate. There's a little pop in his bat, but plenty to be said about his plate discipline. A walk machine, and grinder at the dish, he made opposing pitchers work nearly every at bat. If the organization looks to beef up the lineup for 2018, a better right-handed bat could replace Robbie, so that makes his future somewhat up in the air.

From that August piece, there are still six players I estimate as needing 40 man spots, protecting them from Rule 5 draft selection. We've cleared up at least seven here, with the possibility to have as many as 11. Minnesota will also look to improve on the open market as well, so having roster flexibility is a must. It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out, and we should begin to find out soon.

Two Ex-Twins Eyeing A Ring

After an exciting American League Championship Series, the Houston Astros are headed to the 2017 World Series. In an event that was determined destiny three years ago by Sports Illustrated, this home grown group is looking to knock off a very good Los Angeles Dodgers team. While the hometown nine has been eliminated, two former Minnesota Twins could be eyeing their first rings. If you need a local connection, both Francisco Liriano and Juan Centeno may provide it.

Playing in 55 games for the Twins a season ago, Centeno was cast off as Minnesota looked to improve their position group behind the plate. He own a career best .704 OPS and hit three homers for the Twinkies. However, he threw out just 14% of base stealers, and provided little value for a guy that needed to be defense first.

This season in Houston, Centeno has seen somewhat of a different path. 65 games this season were played with the Triple-A PCL team in Franco, where Centeno surprisingly batted .311 en route to a .737 OPS. Earning a big league promotion, he contributed across 22 contests for Houston, owning a .632 OPS on the year. He was actually worse behind the plate in the running game, throwing out just 8% (1-12) of base stealers.

Although Houston will likely wait til the final moment to set their World Series roster, Centeno figures to be on it. The club carried three backstops in the ALCS, as Evan Gattis serves often as the DH. Despite the possibility of four non-DH games, having three catchers at his disposal allows for A.J. Hinch to maneuver bats in key pinch hit scenarios.

In the bullpen, the Astros employ another former Twin, and it's again a player that didn't spend the bulk of the season with this club. Now pitching in relief, Francisco Liriano would be classified as the long men out of the pen. In a seven game do-or-die series, that's an arm you'd probably rather not need to use. With a long man filling in during a short start or blowout, Houston would likely prefer to keep Liriano from toeing the rubber through the rest of the season.

That being said, he made 18 starts for the Blue Jays prior to coming over to Houston. A 5.88 ERA and 4.73 FIP was hardly something to get excited about, but the 8.1 K/9 could play, and the hope was that some command issues could be resolved. Down the stretch for the Stros, Liriano worked 14.1 IP across 20 appearances. His 4.40 ERA was better, but the biggest issue remained the free passes (an ugly 6.3 BB/9).

Liriano too was included on the club's ALCS roster, and should be an expected name to be taken to the World Series. Despite the lackluster pen that the Astros employ, one can guess that A.J. Hinch will be relying heavily upon names like Musgrove, Devenski, Peackock, and Giles to get Houston to the finish line.

In the World Series, Houston is absolutely going to need to hit their way to a title. Yes, both Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander can twirl gems, but Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers remain relative wild cards behind them. As the Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, it will be on the Houston bats to continue the hot streak they started at the tail end of the ALCS. That plan of attack doesn't leave much room for contributions from the two former Twins, but that doesn't water down their part in all of this.

At the end of the day, both Juan Centeno and Francisco Liriano have an opportunity to win a World Series ring, and that's something so few players ever get to experience. For the sake of the Astros representing the American League, and both former Twins representing all of Twins Territory, here's to hoping the Lunhow's organization can in fact #EarnHistory.

The Best Move You Never Expected

The Minnesota Twins are, just like the 26 other major league teams, watching the final four postseason clubs compete for a World Series victory. Unlike each and every one of those teams however, the hometown club may have just made the move of the offseason. John Manuel, former Editor in Chief for Baseball America, is now a Pro Scout for the Derek Falvey regime (or he will be as of November 1).

You don't know who John Manuel is you say? Well then, let me introduce you. When it comes to great baseball minds, especially those plugged in among prospects, there isn't a better tier than the one Manuel is on. This man is more connected throughout the game than is even possible to explain. Baseball America has long been the premier outlet for all things prospecting, and it's because of his leadership that the website has cultivated such strong sources and content over the years.

As Manuel noted himself in his post on Facebook, he's watched previous staffers join other organizations, and he's given Falvey plenty of recommendations over the years. This time however, it was his turn, and he wanted to join the team. At a Baseball Prospectus event this summer, Thad Levine talked of how the Twins may not outspend other clubs on free agents, but they'll utilize their resources to make sure they have the best internal team in place. We've already seen exciting turnover in the front office, but it probably doesn't get any better than Manuel.

The Twins find themselves at an incredibly important time in the history of the franchise. With arguably the greatest assembly of youth and veteran talent since they last won a World Series, this team is poised to go place. Needing to be supplemented from outside with a few key pieces, as well as best utilizing a still strong farm system, the arrow should be pointing straight up. As Manuel enters, his goal will not only be to continue to identify those players to bring into the organization, but the ones that make sense to part with or advance other areas.

Under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the Twins exceeded expectations the first year. The volatility of youth played out in that the team returned to a more realistic version of itself, as opposed to the 103 loss season a year prior. Now with more experience and growth under their belts as a whole, and the AL Central opening up to a certain extent, Minnesota should be on everyones radar going forward. It is in this offseason, that the ball will begin rolling to suggest what is next to come for the organization.

If the hiring of John Manuel is any indication of what's to come, you should bet that this Twins club is in incredibly good hands. We may not see a deal offered to Yu Darvish this winter, or Bryce Harper next, but the understanding that those influencing decisions in the front office is the best it's ever been should be a given. For the first time in what may seem like the club's history, Minnesota has transformed itself into a forward thinking, and cutting edge organization, and that should absolutely fire you up.

Welcome aboard John Manuel, and we look forward to watching you get to work.

Falvey Gives Twins A Leap In Year One

In looking back to some of the things I wrote about Derek Falvey and Thad Levine upon being hired last fall, I stumbled upon a piece that focused on Twins acquisitions. Namely, how well does Minnesota utilize the trade market, and does it work in their favor. You can read that piece here, but the conclusion was that Terry Ryan left plenty to be desired on that front. A year in, Falvey is providing reason for excitement.

Over the course of 2017, the Twins found themselves in a unique position and made a couple of swaps. Despite being positioned well above expectations, they found themselves fading at the deadline and moved some key players as sellers. As they rallied down the stretch and made the Wild Card game, the addition of young talent in the organization should only further the group as a whole in the future.

This season, Falvey sent Brandon Kintzler, John Ryan Murphy, and Huascar Ynoa out. The Ynoa move brought in Jaime Garcia for one start, prior to flipping him to the New York Yankees. The returns included strong prospects such as Zack Littell, Tyler Watson, and Gabriel Ynoa. A Triple-A, and big league ready, pitcher was included in Dietrich Enns, and Minnesota even nabbed some international bonus money. It's one thing to grade these deals on their own, but I think the more important note is what they as a whole say about Falvey.

First and foremost, the new front office was willing to go above and beyond to make sure the return benefitted them. In dealing for Jaime Garcia, the Twins gave up little in Ynoa because they were able to assume the bulk of the veteran starter's salary. They then essentially bought Littell from the Yankees by not sending any of Garcia's money with him. Falvey was able to orchestrate a set of moves that benefitted the organization in one of their greatest deficiencies (starting pitching) and the only cost was a monetary value.

The other standout for me was the acquisition of Gabriel Moya. Despite not being a flamethrower or an overpowering reliever, Moya's numbers at Double-A in 2017 were exceptional. John Ryan Murphy had no place in Minnesota, and had simply become a remnant of how bad the swap for Aaron Hicks really was. Falvey was able to acquire Moya, a player of value and need, in exchange for a guy that served no benefit to the organization going forward.

Heading into this offseason and beyond, it will be through adept trade acquisitions that Falvey and Levine can make their mark. While the Twins farm system isn't what it was, it is rich in certain areas, and that allows for the organization to use prospects as assets. There was a time that Terry Ryan either didn't part with those types of pieces, or you'd prefer he didn't in fear of the return. With the Twins positioned for a lengthened period of success, supplementing the big league roster is a must. That will come from both free agency as well as trades, and the gentlemen at the helm seem more than capable.

If there's a name I'd watch out for over the winter, it's probably Nick Gordon. With Royce Lewis in the system, and Wander Javier blossoming, shortstop may be among Minnesota's best area on the farm. Gordon alone isn't going to command top tier pitching, but he could be packaged along with other pieces to help the Twins in a different way than simply debuting on the roster.

Given baseball being an uncapped sport, teams are allowed to spend to their heart's content. That means organizations like Minnesota, without a massive TV deal, will always find it hard to play in the upper echelon of bankroll. Knowing what internal assets you posses, and how to use them, is going to be huge for the organization moving forward. It's been a very small sample size thus far, but there's nothing to suggest a cause for concern here.