The Kinley Conundrum is Coming for Twins

Thus far in 2018, the Minnesota Twins have played seven baseball games. They've had to deal with frigid temperatures, some snow, and even a postponement in the early going. What they have yet to need due to the circumstances, is a fifth starter. That leash could soon be coming to an end however, and Rule 5 draft pick Tyler Kinley could be caught up in the heart of the shuffle.

Through the seven games, Minnesota has won three times by at least four runs, and they were beaten recently by the Seattle Mariners to the tune of a seven run deficit. Despite what would seem like a few opportunities, Paul Molitor has only inserted Minnesota's Rule 5 pick into one game. Kinley got an inning of mop-up work during the blowout loss to the Mariners. He threw 22 pitches over one inning and gave up a hit, run, and walk while tallying two strikeouts.

During his inning of work, it was ever apparent as to why the Twins both wanted to grab the former Miami Marlins prospect, and why they were able to. He topped out at 96 mph, reaching that velocity on nine of his 22 pitches. There was also three sweeping sliders at 88 mph that were offered to Mariners hitters. Just 50% of his pitches were in the strike zone however, and there were more than a couple that appeared simply non-competitive. Velocity and lack of command isn't a new blueprint, and it's one that many Rule 5 draftees possess. In being held back until this moment however, it seems widely apparent that manager Paul Molitor doesn't see the training wheels coming off any time soon.

This is where things begin to get a bit hairy for both the Twins and Kinley. With Ervin Santana still on the shelf (and frankly not looking like he'll be back before June), Phil Hughes is looking like the most likely candidate to be inserted into the Minnesota rotation. He could be needed as soon as Friday, and the expected move would be that reliever Gabriel Moya would be sent to the minors. In 2.1 IP thus far, Moya has allowed 2 ER on 1 HR and 2 H. It's a small sample size, and the numbers don't suggest much. While he has dominated in the minors, and looks the part of a big league reliever, he has the unfortunate burden of carrying options. What this does for Minnesota though, could be described as suboptimal.

In sending out Moya, Minnesota decreases their relief arms by two. Molitor already isn't using Kinley (for fair reasons), and Moya is no longer at his disposal. Coupled with the fact that Trevor Hildenberger simply has not looked right since spring training commenced and Zach Duke has been effectively (but equally ineffective) wild out of the gate with his new team, the Twins relief corps finds themselves immediately stretched. There's little denying that Alan Busenitz couldn't be helping the big league club, but right now there's just no avenue to make it happen.

While sorting this all out, Derek Falvey is also faced with a reality that could end up being somewhat of an "egg on face" situation. Sure, Kinley's velocity was intriguing enough to take a flier on, but he really didn't make sense for the Twins given the other options. During the roster shuffle surrounding the Rule 5 draft and beyond, Minnesota lost Luke Bard, Nick Burdi, and J.T. Chargois. Burdi wasn't going to factor into the plans this year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but both of the other two are on big league rosters and showing nicely.

As a Rule 5 pick, Bard has the same stipulations as Kinley does. During spring training with the Los Angeles Angels, Bard never appeared in jeopardy of missing out on the 25 man roster however. He's backed up the vote of confidence by turning in a 1.42 ERA across his first 6.1 IP this season. The eight strikeouts have equated to an 11.4 K/9, though he does have an ugly five walks in that same span as well. Chargois was a waiver claim by the Dodgers, and despite that suggesting he nearly passed through unclaimed, one of the best teams in baseball saw and avenue to improve their pen. He's rewarded them with 3.1 scoreless IP giving up just 2 H, striking out three, and working around 95 mph with his fastball.

Now is too late to boo-hoo over the loss of players that could have been capable of providing value in the Twins pen. What's going to be tough to stomach however is if Minnesota is forced to give up on Kinley after a matter of weeks, or even a month, and watch their alternative options thrive. At some point soon though, Paul Molitor and the Twins brain trust is going to face a crossroads that determines how they move forward. A team with Postseason aspirations can't have unusable assets out in the pen, and with guys scuffling out of the gate, there has to be more trustworthy options available sooner rather than later.

We shouldn't have to wait much longer to see how this situation plays itself out, and hopefully, the sting won't be too bad when all is said and done.

Do The Twins Need Relief?

In 2017, one of the greatest deficiencies for the Minnesota Twins was the lack of quality relief pitching. While the starting rotation left plenty to be desired on its own, it was the bullpen that generally provided little in the way of resistance when tasked to come in and back up a start. Minnesota needs to address that this offseason, but what if they don't look anywhere but within?

Over the course of the early offseason, I've considered plenty of different ways the Twins could spend their dollars and roster openings. I'd argue that a starting pitcher is a must (with a second having a decent amount of potential). A right handed bat, with some positional flexibility could be a nice add as well. Initially, my thought was that the Twins would be best served to bring in two relief options, but what if they shifted to add no one at all.

Currently, the 40 man roster has 17 relievers on it. Those players will be shifted in the coming weeks as some will be reinstated, others will become free agents, some will be DFA'd, and one may even retire. Looking at that group, and what isn't on the 40 man however, the Twins glaring need may be less significant than one would imagine.

Starting with one of the most missed pieces from 2016, Trevor May re-enters the fold for the 2018 season. He'll have missed a year due to Tommy John surgery, and he'll need to work back towards what he was. However, out of the bullpen, his 12.7 K/9 was elite, and while the 3.6 BB/9 wasn't ideal, it was the longball that bit him. I'm not sure if May's back issues will allow him to be a full time reliever, but if he can get right in the pen, he could definitely be a weapon for Paul Molitor.

Joining May on the reinstatement train from the 60-day DL is J.T. Chargois. Had he been healthy in 2017, it's all but guaranteed he would've recorded a few save opportunities. He's got the stuff that should play as a big league closer, and there's real velocity there. Chargois is among the many touted relief options from the Twins prospect lists over the past few years, and seeing him bear fruit would be a welcomed addition.

Rounding out the trio of guys on the 60-day DL is Ryan O'Rourke. Unlike Chargois, velocity is hardly O'Rourke's game, but he's lethal against lefties. The southpaw held opposing lefties to a .359 OPS in 2016, and was definitely missed by the Minnesota bullpen this year. There's other guys that have stepped in during his absence, but if used correctly in relief, O'Rourke could put up some really flashy numbers.

Outside of those returning from injuries, options like Gabriel Moya and Randy Rosario were given a taste of the highest level this season. Moya has had significant success on the farm, and Rosario has flashed plus stuff in relief as well. Whether they are given a shot, and stick like Alan Busenitz and Trevor Hildenberger remains to be seen however.

Venturing from the 40 man roster, the Twins have a couple of high ceiling options that have yet to reach their projections. First and foremost, Tyler Jay enters the picture. Having been drafted as a reliever, converted to a starter, and now working in relief again, the former first round pick could turn out to be a weapon. Velocity rises in short bursts, and he's put up solid performances throughout his Arizona Fall League action this year. Minnesota may not be ready to give up on him as a starter yet, but if he's healthy, getting him to help the big league club in whatever way possible is a must.

The duo of Jake Reed and Nick Burdi were once the next best thing coming to the Twins pen, and their steam has somewhat cooled. While Burdi missed all year due to Tommy John surgery, Reed started late and never was able to get his footing. Both throw gas and have a keen ability to miss bats. There's nothing the Twins need more than the ideal version of these two pitching in the late innings for them. Should Reed and Burdi breakthrough this season, it could arguably the greatest offseason pickup for the big league club.

By my count, there's at least eight internal options vying for a spot, and each of them have significant upside. With something like three or four relief spots likely claimed already, that provides plenty of competition to fight things out. That being said, each of the aforementioned names come with serious question marks. The Twins will have to decide if they are willing to commit to a player potentially blocking an internal option, or if they believe in some of the names above to break through.

During free agency, the best relief names aren't going to be actively seeking out one year deals. The hope would be that the organization would aim higher than a Matt Belisle type if they're going to bring someone in, but there's lots of caveats that come with such a move. It's certain that the hometown nine needs some bullpen help, but navigating how to go about getting it is anyone's guess.

Closing Out The Twins

Early on in spring training, Thad Levine said that Brandon Kintzler would be "given every opportunity to start the year in the closer's role." That statement all but solidified the assumed reality that Glen Perkins will open 2017 on the disabled list for the Minnesota Twins. What's worth wondering is, who closes out the most games for the hometown nine when the dust settles?

For Minnesota, having an elite closer in a season that .500 looks to be a solid effort, there's no denying that being anything but a luxury. However, given the way the sport has trended, bullpens are anchored by the guy who can slam the door on a victory. Although Paul Molitor won't have Aroldis Chapman to call on out of his pen, he'll have some solid options even if it isn't Kintzler that racks up the biggest number.

So who are the candidates and where do they fall?

Brandon Kintzler

Coming in as the incumbent, Kintzler will likely get the longest leash of any pitcher entering in the 9th inning for Minnesota. He racked up 17 saves a year ago and did so to a respectable 3.15 ERA. The problem for Kintzler could come in the fact that he simply doesn't miss bats. He totalled just 5.8 K/9, and that's not far off from his 6.5 career mark. Throwing just 92 mph, he doesn't bring swing and miss stuff, and if there's a place that it falls apart, that could be it.

Glen Perkins

Perkins is a three time All-Star, and pushed his Twins career saves total to 120. He's held his own in the role since the 2012 season, and outside of injuries, he's been one of the best under-the-radar-pitchers in the game. That injury though, it's real, and it's scary. Perkins had to have his labrum reattached to the bone, and his shoulder may never be the same. He's going to open the year on the DL, and frankly, I'm not sure he should be relied upon in any great measure for the rest of his career.

J.T. Chargois

A college closer, Chargois has been among the touted fireballing relievers coming up through the Twins system. He beat the likes of Nick Burdi and Jake Reed to the show, and there's plenty of reason to be excited about him sticking. While his first 23 MLB innings were a mixed bag, that 96.6mph average on his fastball is legit. Chargois is going to need to settle into the highest level, but the Twins would gladly welcome his minor league career 10.6 K/9

Ryan Pressly

A former Rule 5 draft pick, Pressly has long been one of the most underappreciated arms in the Twins pen. Last season, his fourth in the big leagues, Pressly picked up his first save. He's generated a nice 7.8 K/9 over the past two seasons and his velocity sat at a career best 95.2 mph average in 2016. If inexperience is working against Pressly, it might be wise to be reminded that Glen Perkins had to start somewhere as well.

Tyler Duffey

Maybe thrown in somewhat for fun, but Duffey has a legitimate reason to be named in this space as well. He was college teammates with Chargois at Rice, and the operated as co-closers. Working as a starter for the Twins thus far, I think Duffey's best cast as a relief option. He has a three pitch mix that's focused mainly around a fastball and a curveball. His 90.4 mph velocity should see an uptick with lower usage rates though. I'd put him in a middle innings role first, but Duffey could work his way to the back of the bullpen.

The Best of the Rest

If one of these guys ends up leading the Twins in saves during the 2017 season, the injury bug has a wrath that really has no fear. Regardless, Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and even Trevor Hildenberger could all be in line to call the closer space their home in the not-so-distant future. Burdi is the hardest throwing of the trio, while Hildenberger is the most advanced at this point. Each of them has some command issues to deal with, but expecting them to be quality big league pen options seems like a really good bet.

If you ask me to put money on it right now, I'd go with J.T. Chargois leading the Twins in saves this year when everything is said and done. I think Kintzler works better as a lower leverage type, and I just don't know what to expect out of Perkins. Pressly would be a fun option to run out there, but I'm not sure the Twins will move him out of his setup-type role.

No matter who closes games for the Twins this year, Paul Molitor will be hoping they have ample opportunity.

Twins Enter 2017 Ignoring Conventional Wisdom

This offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed closer Kenley Jansen to an $80 million contract. The New York Yankees inked closer Aroldis Chapman to an $86 million deal. Late inning super-reliever Andrew Miller was the Cleveland Indians star of the Postseason, and Wade David held that title as the Royals closer a year prior. Back end relief pitching has become the new phenomenon, but the Minnesota Twins will ignore the trend in 2017.

Glen Perkins was a 1st round pick by the Twins in 2004 out of the University of Minnesota. He was a local kid out of Stillwater, and has the "one of us" narrative going as he still currently resides in Lakevill. After flaming out as a starter, Perkins picked up his first save for the Twins during the 2011 season. Since then, he's gone on to save 120 games, good enough for third all time in franchise history.

From 2013-2015, Perkins was among the best and most underrated closers in the game of baseball. He made three straight All Star games, saved 30+ games per year, and owned a combined ERA of 3.08. Since moving to the closer role full time, Perkins owns a 9.9 K/9 with a very solid 1.9 BB/9. No matter which numbers you look at, Perkins has had everything going in his favor. In the middle of the 2014 season, Perkins may have been Minnesota's best trade chip in quite some time. Unfortunately, all of this now looks like a distant memory.

Following the All Star Break in 2015, Perkins went on to save just four games, blow three, and post a 7.32 ERA while allowing a 1.068 OPS. After being shut down to end the year, he came back in 2016 to pitch just two innings posting a 9.00 ERA all before undergoing surgery to reattach his labrum to the bone. The injury helps to explain the deterioration of his ability, but it also highlights the volatility of expecting him to return to anything close to what he once was.

Prior to the 2017 season, Perkins will be 34 years old. It sure doesn't look like he'll be ready for Opening Day, and what he can provide the Twins beyond that remains a major question mark. Sitting at 95 mph in 2013, Perkins' fastball velocity has dipped every year until bottoming out at 91 mph a season ago. His out pitch has been a very strong sweeping slider, and that too had seen a decrease of two miles per hour over the past three seasons.

Digging deeper, the numbers continue to mount against the Minnesota native. Perkins has slipped over two percent since 2013 when it comes to generating swinging strikes, and he's giving up contact to hitters nearly 80% of the time (a 5% jump from 2013). Even without an injury to throw a wrench into things, Perkins would have been far from a given in late game situations going into the upcoming season.

Last year, Paul Molitor was forced to call upon veteran journeyman Brandon Kintzler to save games for the big league club. He recorded his first save (and then 16 more) of his big league career, and first since 2012 at Double-A for the Brewers. Filling in admirably, Kintzler helped the Twins limp to the finish line during a franchise worst 103 loss campaign. He posted a 3.40 ERA as the club's closer and allowed a .684 OPS to opposing hitters. To say Kintzler got the job done is fair, to count on him going forward is shaky at best.

Kintzler was a non-roster invitee by former Twins General Manager Terry Ryan. He looked like a decent enough pick up to bolster a bad Minnesota bullpen. Forcing a guy generating 5.8 K/9 into a late inning closer role though isn't a good bet. Working in his favor is that Kintzler walks no one, just 1.3 per nine in 2016 to be exact. Regardless, if you're filling out a bullpen, neither your club nor Kintzler himself should see an ideal fit in the closer role.

That brings the Twins to a crossroads. There's really no in house option short of running bullpen coach Eddie Guardado back out to the mound. J.T. Chargois may eventually assume that role, and prospect Nick Burdi was trending that way before losing his 2016 completely to different injuries. Ryan Pressly may have some late inning appeal, and Tyler Duffey operated as a closer in college for Rice University. No matter who's name you suggest however, the reality is that they're nothing better than a dart throw.

What could be best for the Twins is to go with an all out belief that you should always be using your best relievers when the game is on the line. We saw this past Postseason how Joe Maddon and Terry Francona would go to Chapman and Miller when they needed outs most. While Miller wasn't the Indians closer, both have plenty of saves under their belts. Paul Molitor could decide to use the hot hand, and call upon the guy he believes best gives him the opportunity to generate outs when he needs them. Naming a closer among a group void of a real fit could place unnecessary pressure on someone.

I'd wager that Kintzler will be given the first crack at the 9th inning to open 2017. It'd be great if he stuck, but far from unexpected if it doesn't happen. Minnesota shouldn't be knocking down the door to the playoffs this season, so opportunity should be present for anyone who wants to grab the reins and run with them. Maybe Perkins will defy the odds and give Minnesota another year; maybe he positions himself to be a trade asset at the break. Right now though, it doesn't appear counting on Glen is a good bet, and there's not anyone else that looks like an immediate answer either.

Twins Pen Showing Its True Colors

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Just narrowly missing out on the playoffs, a better relief corps could have been enough to get them over the hump. This season there were some holdovers and some dart throws to the pen, but no player has been more important, both in reality and principle, than Taylor Rogers.

Rogers, a 25 year old rookie, has now pitched 35.1 innings for Paul Molitor's club. An 11th round draft pick out of Kentucky in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Rogers went from minor league starter to big league reliever. Posting strong numbers at Double and Triple-A the past two seasons, Rogers looked deserving of a chance, but one that likely was destined to come in the pen.

If there's been something that's held true over his minor league career, it's been a level of consistency from Rogers. At Double-A New Britain in 2014, Rogers posted a 7.0 K/9 with a 2.3 BB/9 to total a 3.29 ERA. He followed that up a season ago with Triple-A Rochester to the tune of a 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 3.98 ERA. Although nothing necessarily stood out as dominant, it was apparent that Rogers had honed his stuff to the level that he was able to compete as he rose the organization ladder.

In reaching the big leagues though, it's in the pen that Rogers has taken a step forward.

Generally, pitchers will watch their numbers play up in relief. Being able to throw harder for a shorter period of time, the results generally improve. I've pegged Rogers as a solid relief option for the Twins for a while now, and through this season, he's made good on that bet. Thus far, the former Wildcat owns a 2.80 ERA and has pushed his strikeout rate to 9.2 per 9 while decreasing his walk total to just 1.3 BB/9. in the midst of his impressive big league performance, Rogers owned a 16.0 scoreless inning streak, and struck out 18 while walking just one over that time frame.

To summarize, Taylor Rogers has been nothing short of exceptional for the Twins.

As I mentioned earlier though, Rogers signifies more than just a success story for Minnesota. He's part of a bigger puzzle piece that both Paul Molitor and the organization have to be willing to rely upon. Taylor Rogers is a product of development with the Twins, and one that has resulted in a quality relief arm. The reality is that there are significantly more on the way, but none that are being given the same belief or opportunity.

Just a level down, the Twins have J.T. Chargois dominating Triple-A. He was the lone organizational representative in the Futures Game, and he has the makings of a future closer. Through 100 games on the season, Minnesota has allowed Chargois just two big league outs. Despite owning a 1.12 ERA with an 11.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 at Rochester, Chargois opportunities has yet to be recalled.

Another level down, Trevor Hildenberger, Zack Jones, and Jake Reed are experiencing similar success at Double-A Chattanooga. Working as the closer, Hildenberger owns a 0.70 ERA, has tallied 16 saves, and is striking out more than 10 per nine innings. Jones, now healthy after returning from the Brewers organization following a Rule 5 selection, owns a 1.26 ERA through 14.1 IP. His 10+ K/9 has also played well in the Southern League. Rounding out the group, Reed owns a 3.88 ERA, that has been a 2.54 ERA across his last 28.1 IP. In totality, the three of them have consistently outperformed the competition of their current level.

If Rogers has taught the Twins anything, it's that they need to trust their own process (or part of it). Minnesota has failed to develop a quality starter for quite some time now (here's to hoping Jose Berrios breaks that trend), but the relief options have been promising. Michael Tonkin was underutilized a season ago, but didn't have the ceiling of any of the aforementioned names either. Now though, with a bad team and mediocre pen, it's time to promote more of those from the lineage of Rogers.

There's no reason Hildenberger, Jones, and Reed aren't at Triple-A. There's reason to suggest that they could even make the leap to the big league level at this point. Chargois should be up and given run as well. Through 100 games, the Twins haven't been very good, and the ship isn't going to be turned around. A season from now though, it's these names that should anchor what could be a pen comprised of arms with much higher ceilings, and getting them situated now makes way too much sense.

Minnesota had some nice hits on players like Buddy Boshers, Fernando Abad, and Brandon Kintzler, but they mean little going forward. It's time to trust the process that Taylor Rogers is proving has worked, and take off the training wheels hitched to some very projectable pieces that will be incredibly valuable in the years ahead.

Salvaging The Worst Of The Twins

Through 82 games, the Twins are on pace to blitz by a franchise worst amount of losses, and finish the season as the worst team in history. Suggesting the first half of the season has been anything but a disaster would be putting it nicely. That all being said, there's plenty left to play for in 2016.

Considering that the bulk of Minnesota's schedule to close out the year comes against AL Central foes, Paul Molitor's club will see a lot of their divisional rivals and can begin to prepare for the year ahead. While it's going to be important to try and slow the pace of the losing, it's equally as important to set up for success in the year ahead.

Looking at how the Twins have positioned themselves, what will be available on the market, and where the roster stands, many of the answers for the future are going to need to come from within. Starting to figure those out sooner rather than later remains in the best interests of the club.

If you're going to place a heightened focus on certain places the rest of the way, here's exactly where I'd point you:

1. Jose Berrios

First and foremost, Jose Berrios needs to get back up to the big leagues and settle in. Across his last four Triple-A starts he's owned a 0.60 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to bat just .104/.171/.156 against him. He's allowed just one home run in his last 30 innings and he's walked batters at just a 2.1 BB/9 rate over that time.

There's no denying he scuffled in his big league debut. As Keith Law of ESPN warned, command and a flat fastball were his biggest deterrents. He'll need to keep the ball in the yard, and he can't issue so many free passes. What remains a constant though is that the Twins need Berrios more than he needs to be here. Minnesota doesn't have an ace, and hasn't for a while. The rotation is full of mediocre options performing below their typical high water marks. Berrios may not be among the best pitchers in the major leagues, but he needs to settle in the rest of the way and be viewed as the Twins go to starter to open 2017.

2. Who is your number two?

If Jose Berrios can finish the year in the big leagues, and do it while pitching well, you have to find out what you have behind him. Right now, the Twins need to be looking everywhere to see if they can move Ricky Nolasco or Ervin Santana. The latter seems like he'll have suitors, while the former's market remains up in the air.

Tommy Milone may not be offered arbitration again, and that leaves just Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes. Gibson was expected to take a step forward this season, but despite not being healthy, has struggled to do so. He turned in a nice effort last time out, but owns a 4.82 ERA through 9 starts and has walked a career worst 3.4 per nine. Hughes is facing an uphill battle in coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery, and there'll be plenty of question marks there. Someone needs to pitch behind Berrios, and it can't be a group of mediocrity. Minnesota will need a legitimate one-two-punch, but who makes it up is yet to be seen.

3. Is there an actual closer?

As of right now, the Twins should be operating under the belief that the days of Glen Perkins closing baseball games for them is done. His velocity has declined severely, and he'll now be entering 2017 after a shoulder surgery that required his labrum be reattached to his bone. He has a 3.51 ERA over the past two years and has saved 32 games. Without a stellar pre-All Star 2015 bolstering those numbers though, things are much worse.

Brandon Kintzler is currently operating as the Twins closer, but like Kevin Jepsen before him, that's a role he's not really cast for. Paul Molitor needs to see if Trevor May or Ryan Pressly could be a better option for the here and now. Nick Burdi hasn't pitched hardly at all in 2016 due to injury concerns of his own, and the Twins have given a whopping two outs of major league work to J.T. Chargois. Those are the names I'd start with for closers in 2017, you can't go into the year with a question mark at the back end of a mediocre pen.

4. Settle the log jams

Really, the only areas that the Twins need to be concerned in regards to players piling up are at second and third base. Both Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco should be at the major league level, but there's currently only room for one. Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano play the same position, and when both are healthy, that's been an area of concern as well.

It's pretty obvious that the Twins should've traded Plouffe some time ago. His value has probably never been lower than it is now, and a move at this point would be beneficial if only for opening up the roster spot. In regards to Dozier and Polanco, the return for the Twins All Star second basemen should be hefty. Despite entering his 30's, Dozier is a late bloomer and has been one of the most offensively productive two-baggers in the big leagues. I'm really good with trading either, but the return has to be right for both. At the end of 2016 however, only two of these four should realistically be options going forward for Minnesota.

5. Allow Buxton to struggle

I was really happy to see the Twins make the right move in their latest roster shuffles by adding guys back without sending Byron Buxton out. Sure, he's scuffled at the plate, but his defense is already Gold Glove caliber. He's shown the club he can rake at Triple-A, and there's nothing new he's going to learn by heading back there.

Run Buxton out nearly every day and let him struggle through it. He's got a good head on his shoulders, and confidence doesn't appear to be an issue he struggles with. He's hit a better (but still not good) .222/.248/.374 since rejoining the Twins, and his 37% strikeout rate is a far cry from the 53% output he had prior to his demotion. There's going to be a lot more lumps for Buxton to take the rest of the way, but if he can figure things out and take them now, it sets him up to hit the ground running in 2017. Minnesota needs to let that process play out.

When you have played as bad as the Twins have, there's not many positives to draw from the first half of what has been an unfortunate year. That being said, the rest of the way invites an opportunity to position things for a better start in 2017, as opposed to packing it in and slogging through the rest of the schedule. If Minnesota can get a few things to click down the stretch, the team they have a year from now will be significantly better for it.

Twins Need To Get Young Sooner, Not Later

The Minnesota Twins have now played 75 games in 2016, and they've won just 24 of them. Paul Molitor's club has the worst record in the major leagues, and Minnesota was the first team to reach the 50 loss plateau. After a season in which the Twins nearly made the playoffs, they're all but cooked by the end of June. It's time the organization makes a shift in its thought process.

Now in his second time around as general manager, Terry Ryan has made mediocrity a defining term in looking at his tenure. He's failed to ever fully commit to a rebuild, and an organization chock full of young prospects have yet to bear fruits at the highest level. While there's no doubt Ryan should be gone at season's end (and not given the good nature of doing so on his own accord), the problems shouldn't be further compounded this season; commit to the future.

A couple of weeks ago I touched on a handful of players the Twins need to trade. While there's a July 31st trade deadline approaching, Minnesota would be doing themselves a favor to make moves before then. Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, and Trevor Plouffe aren't going to raise whatever value they may currently have over the next month, and they're only holding the Twins back in the interim.

Right now, the best thing for a bad Twins club would be to open the floodgates and bring aboard the youth. Although waiting a month is far from a damaging situation, it's also wasted developmental time coming into the critical juncture that is 2017.

Eddie Rosario should be recall number one. Nobody was harder on him than I was, and the expectation that he would struggle in his sophomore big league season was very real. He swung far too freely and had an ugly plate approach. On top of all of that, he had an attitude that needed to be knocked down a notch. His leash was long, but eventually he found his way back to Triple-A. Since the demotion, he's proven he wants no business in staying there.

In his time with the Red Wings, Rosario has slashed .319/.342/.539 with 19 extra base hits (six of which have left the yard). He's struck out 23 times and has drawn six walks. His approach is never going to be one of patience, but he's made some minor tweaks, and the Twins have room.

How exactly do the Twins have room you ask? Well, the outfield is far from settled at this point. Waiver claim Robbie Grossman has really hit the skids of late. He's batting just .150 across his last 11 games, and despite an OBP north of .400, his average has dropped below .270. There's definitely reason to keep running him out there, but Minnesota's first goal should be to move him, and if not, he's more than adequate being a role player.

On the other hand, Byron Buxton, who's struggled still to hit big league pitching, may be worth of a few less starts per week. Rather than running Danny Santana out to center, Rosario could draw some of those starts, allowing Buxton to stay at the level he needs to figure out, without being given a full leash.

After Rosario, the next two biggest pieces wasting away on the farm come in the form of an infielder and a reliever. Jorge Polanco and J.T. Chargois absolutely belong up with the Twins. Polanco is coming up on a 2017 season in which he'll be out of options, and the Twins handling of Oswaldo Arcia doesn't spark any sense of trust for Polanco being dealt with in an ideal manner.

Polanco likely can't play short, and the Twins didn't exactly find out when presented with the opportunity that was Eduardo Escobar's DL stint. Brian Dozier is hitting like a mad man right now, so second remains out of the question. For Polanco, his playing time must come in the form of a trade involving either Plouffe and/or Nunez.

Neither Trevor Plouffe nor Eduardo Nunez will do anything but depreciate for the Twins. At this point in time, given the roster construction, moving one or both for the sake of opening up a roster spot remains of the highest value. Whatever return Minnesota is given will likely be low (even with Nunez's unexpected season), and shouldn't be a key piece in the decision making process.

For Chargois, he's been held down in favor of a guy like Buddy Boshers, or a DFA candidate in Kevin Jepsen. J.T. has dominated the AAA level, and despite an ugly MLB debut, should be inching his way towards the back end of the Twins bullpen. With Nick Burdi having spent virtually the whole year on the DL, and Glen Perkins facing an extremely up hill battle to resume his career (let alone close again), Chargois should be emerging as a 2017 closer.

Right now, Boshers has done about as well as the Twins could have asked. He's come out of indy ball and absolutely earned his opportunity. Expecting him to be a key piece in the Twins pen a year from now is foolhardy at best however. If you'd rather not send a bad message though, the smart move would be to DFA Jepsen, who has done nothing to earn his roster spot in 2016. A phantom injury could provide the Twins a look without moving on from the reliever acquired from the Rays a season ago, but Terry Ryan leaned too heavily on unrealistic expectations for Jepsen, and things finally broke.

Rounding out the necessary youth movement would be that of Jose Berrios. Since his demotion back to Triple-A, he's been anything but the dominating pitcher he was prior to his big league debut. His last outing was stellar however, and he's going to be a key component for the Twins going forward. It sounds like Minnesota may have takers on Ervin Santana, and they should continue to shop Ricky Nolasco (and really any starter that draws interest). When that spot opens up, it should be Berrios who hears his name called.

As things stand, the Twins are bad. They weren't expected to be in this position however, and have to find a way to make the most out of it. Giving run to guys that won't be key pieces of a team that needs to turn it around a year from now is not the way to do that. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan need to create roster spots for cornerstones of the future, and that transition needs to happen sooner rather than later.

In free agency, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his roster decisions, Ryan has aimed for mediocrity. In his rebuild, Ryan has aimed right down the middle, for mediocrity. It's time to realize that plan of action hasn't worked, and do something different.

How Do You Fix The Twins?

With the Twins having 33 games under their belt, the club has won just eight contests. They've been swept in a series seven times thus far, and the reality of the situation has gone from dire to laughable. While I don't contend that either Paul Molitor or Terry Ryan are the best for the organization going forward, a change there doesn't handle the issues at present. So, how do you fix the Twins?

In an attempt to salvage the most out of the 2016 season, and put a best foot forward for 2017, here's the strategy I'm going with sooner rather than later.

Move 1: Demote Eddie Rosario

I've been telling you this would happen since way back in February. My comments on Eddie Rosario have generally been met with the question as to why I "dislike him." That really couldn't be further from the truth. Rosario was my "Danny Santana" pick in 2015. He was the early call up who was going to force his way into the lineup and stick. It happened, but what also became apparent was that it wasn't sustainable.

Some have tried to categorize Rosario as a "bad ball hitter" but really, he isn't that. He's swung and missed over 19% of the time in 2016, and has chased pitches outside of the zone a staggering 40.6% of the time. His 67.7% contact rate is in line with a guy that hits a lot of balls out of the park. but that's not Rosario's game either. He saw an inflated OPS a season ago due to his MLB leading 15 triples, and that shouldn't have been expected to be repeated. Now also compounding problems is that Rosario has posted a negative Defensive Runs Saved metric and isn't operating as an asset in the outfield.

He's a guy who has long been talked about being bored on the farm. That may be fair, but his head isn't on straight, and he isn't above having to work at being good at this game. He needs to go down and rework his approach, while also figuring out who he wants to be between his ears.

Move 2: Start Oswaldo Arcia, then trade him

Fresh off of his 25th birthday, Oswaldo Arcia is still a part of the crop of youth the Twins employ. Despite being yanked around the last few seasons, and in part because of his lack of production, he's stuck with the Twins due to being out of options. Now drawing more regular starts due to Eddie Rosario's struggles, Arcia should be finding himself in the lineup every day.

Arcia is always going to struggle versus lefties, and his OPS in 2016 is nearly 70 points higher off of righties with all of his four homers coming against those pitchers. He can hit for power though, and despite facing shifts quite often at the plate, he's a capable power bat for a good club. He's just two seasons removed from being worth nearly 1.0 fWAR and remaining under team control until 2020 works to his value as well.

You probably aren't going to get a huge return for him, but opening up some room for Move 3 to happen makes sense.

Move 3: Promote Byron Buxton and Max Kepler

It wasn't expected that Bryon Buxton would struggle so mightily to start off 2016, and it wasn't hoped that Max Kepler would be called up to be to poorly mismanaged by Paul Molitor. That said, both guys are beginning to force the Twins hand, and removing Rosario and Arcia from the picture could help to accommodate that.

Over his last 12 games, Buxton is slashing .374/.423/.625. He's hitting for gap power, as well as putting the ball over the fence, and most importantly, his strikeout rates are reduced below 20%. Now finally getting consistent at bats (something Molitor stunted him of), Kepler is also heating up in Rochester slashing .324/.425/.529 across his last nine. Bring them up together, and make them your starting outfield along with Miguel Sano.

In this scenario, both Buxton and Kepler are able to work towards being cornerstones of the future, while Sano is allowed to continue his transition. While much is made about Sano defensively, he's far from an issue when you look at the landscape of power bats playing right field (Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz...all are negative defenders). Danny Santana then returns to his super utility role that he's best suited for, and you have the largest amount of talent on the field at one time.

Note that this is move three. I'd look to see what can be done about at least move one or two before going here. I think that both Buxton and Kepler stand to benefit from playing at Rochester at least until early June.

Move 4: Trade Jorge Polanco

This move has been complicated in how Paul Molitor has used Polanco since Eduardo Escobar has landed on the disabled list. Polanco has long been one of the guys the Twins have promoted, gone unused, and then has been sent back down. He'll now be out of options in 2017 because of it, and the big league club has very little idea what he can do at the highest level.

Polanco has not played shortstop at all, at any level, in 2016. He's probably not capable of playing the role at the big league level due to his tendency for errors. That being said, the Twins have a second basemen in Brian Dozier (and no I'm not worried about his slow start). If you aren't going to see what Polanco has while the already struggling Escobar is hurt, then there's no place for him on the Twins roster.

It's pretty widely regarded that Polanco's bat is big league ready. His glove may not be, but playing at second should help to alleviate some of those concerns. I'd be shopping Polanco immediately and if a team would rather give you a decent haul for Brian Dozier, then sure go ahead and pursue that route. If both Polanco and Dozier are in the organization to begin 2017 however, the Twins may have fumbled an opportunity.

Move 5: Promote J.T. Chargois and Alex Meyer

This offseason, I was completely behind the idea of Terry Ryan standing somewhat pat on his pen. Sure, they weren't good a year ago, but it's also one of the organizations areas of strength. Fernando Abad looked like shrewd signing from the get go, and has been absolutely that. Glen Perkins put the Twins in a bind, but they weren't going to be in the market for a closer. What has compounded problems is the lack of follow through on what appeared to be the plan.

Coming into the year, and now 26 years old, the Twins still seem lost as to what Alex Meyer is. He was worked as a starter in Rochester and dominated. Then he was promoted, went unused, was thrown into a start, imploded, and was demoted. Rather than seeing some time in relief, where he appears destined to succeed, the Twins continue to jerk their return for Denard Span around. He should be up in the big league pen generating strikeouts at a 10+ K/9 pace and hoping the command issues stay as they were to start in Rochester (see nonexistent).

Along with Meyer, flame throwing reliever J.T. Chargois could be up helping the Twins. He was dominant to start 2016 with Chattanooga, and appeared to have earned the call. His 10.8 K/9 and 1.54 ERA as the Double-A closer were more than respectable. When healthy, Chargois has been nearly as good as they come in the Twins system. Instead, he was handed a ticket to Triple-A Rochester.

For a floundering team and struggling bullpen, the Twins saw fit to add guys like Pat Dean and Brandon Kintzler to the fold, despite having no real long term viability with the club.

At the end of the day, this club is playing horrible baseball right now. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who are actually bad, the Twins are a average to good collection of players, all playing well below their capabilities (spare Joe, Byung Ho, and one or two others). With the season where it is now, you don't throw in the towel, but if you aren't positioning for 2017 and working in some of the ones above, you're doing it wrong.

Options Emerging For Twins

Going into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins seemingly had one lone spot open in their starting rotation. Tommy Milone was out of options, and was seemingly guaranteed to be included. That left Ricky Nolasco as the veteran fighting to remain in the group. Now a few weeks into the year, there's a couple more added wrinkles to the mix.

First and foremost, it's worth noting how the Twins fourth and fifth starters have performed. Milone owns a 5.87 ERA having given up 10 earned runs in just 15.1 IP. He's been significantly bitten by the long ball, and has already surrendered four of them in just 3 starts. With strikeout rates up (7.0 K/9) and walk rates on par with his career averages, it's really been just keeping the ball in the yard that has kept Milone from succeeding.

On the other hand, Nolasco has taken steps forward after floundering in his first two seasons with Minnesota. Across three starts, he owns a 2.66 ERA and has given the Twins quality starts in two of his outings. While his strikeout numbers have decreased, he's walking next to no one, and limiting damage. Right now, there's really no reason to look to replace the former Marlins mainstay.

What is on the horizon for the Twins absolutely has to have them looking to improve at the top. Just one rung down in the organization, Triple-A Rochester has at least two guys that look big league ready. First and foremost, Twins top pitching prospect Jose Berrios.

On the season, Berrios has made three starts to the tune of a 1.06 ERA. He's striking out over 10 batters per nine innings, and while his walk numbers are up, they are generally not in line with his career performance. One of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, there's significant reason to believe Berrios would elevate the staff as a whole. I had him being promoted in May, and I still see that happening. Right now, I just don't know for who.

That brings us to arm number two, and somewhat of a curious inclusion. Alex Meyer has been almost equally as impressive at Rochester. He began the year with a scoreless innings streak of 15.1. In three games (two starts) he owns a 1.04 ERA, and he's held his walk rate in check at just 2.1 BB/9. Meyer throws hard, and his stuff could play in either the rotation or bullpen depending on where the Twins want to use him. If it's in relief that the door swings easier right now, I'd be asking him to hop on a plane sooner rather than later.

Not to be forgotten is 2015 standout Tyler Duffey. While he's taking somewhat of a back seat to the two aforementioned pitchers, Duffey's 1.72 ERA is now slouch of its own. He's walking too many batters (4.0 BB/9) but has otherwise pitched well. Having been a contributor for the Twins a season ago, there's plenty of reason to believe he's capable of being just that again.

If you want to take a step even further down the ladder, J.T. Chargois has to have turned some heads. The Double-A Chattanooga closer has pitched 5.0 innings without giving up a base hit. He's walked no one and his nine strikeouts have him rolling at a 16.2 K/9 pace. He throws some electric stuff, and I'd believe in him out of the Twins pen almost immediately.

Minnesota will start to see this problem (if we can call it that) pop up more and more in the coming seasons. As some of their top pitching talent rises to the top levels, room will need to be made. I think both Meyer and Berrios should probably be with the big league team almost immediately, and I'm not exactly sure where I'd put them. At some point, you may have to push out the Milone's or Casey Fien's of the world to advance your squad as a whole.

It's a proposition that Terry Ryan hasn't had to deal with for quite some time, but if the Twins are truly going to bank on their own hard work, it's one they'll need to start looking into.