Tuesday, December 31, 2024

2025 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

In 2024, more than a handful of Minnesota Twins prospects made their way to the big leagues. A few of them came out of nowhere, others carry top prospect expectations, within the organization.

With the MLB offseason well underway, new team president Derek Falvey has turned his focus to 2025. The expectation is that Minnesota, who has no money to spend in free agency, will be active on the trade market and, yet again, rely on graduating top prospects, in order to improve on a disappointing 2024.

I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below:

2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
2023 Top 15 Prospects
2024 Top 15 Prospects

15. Billy Amick 3B/1B

Minnesota drafted Amick out of Tennessee in the 2nd round of the most recent MLB Draft. He put up big power numbers during his last season in Knoxville including 23 home runs. There isn’t much to glean from 18 professional games, but he did play at Low-A Fort Myers.

If there was something extremely promising during his first foray into pro ball, it’s that Amick showed a strong sense of plate discipline. His 15/12 K/BB suggests he can handle the first level, and a push to Cedar Rapids next season makes sense.

14. Kala’i Rosario OF

A former fifth round pick in 2020, Rosario is eligible as a Rule 5 Draft pick this winter. It’s possible he’s no longer in the Twins organization by the end of the week. Injuries kept Rosario to just 69 games last year and his .726 OPS was a step backwards from the .832 mark he posted for Cedar Rapids in 2022.

The corner outfielder did return to the Arizona Fall League and he performed well there. In 21 games Rosario hit three home runs and drove in 16. He has some swing and miss in his profile, but the power is legit. There’s a chance a big league organization could stash him as their 26th man.

13. Brandon Winokur SS/3B/CF

The positional flexibility for Winokur highlights just how tools’d out he is. This is a five-tool talent that needs refinement across the board. He played primarily shortstop for Fort Myers but committed 14 errors in 61 games. The .761 OPS is solid for a league typically tough on hitters.

Winokur wound up with 14 homers and 23 stolen bases during his first full professional season. He’ll need to dial in discipline and work on contact. There’s a lot to like here though, and the 2023 third round pick is a name to watch in 2025.

12. Dasan Hill LHP

Minnesota grabbed the prep arm from Texas with the 69th overall pick in last year’s draft. He didn’t pitch in pro ball the rest of the way, but it’s clear to see what they liked. He has touched 96 mph and just went through a significant growth spurt.

The Twins are working off projections here, and they have a belief that Hill can be developed into a power starting arm from the left side. He throws four pitches, all for strikes. There is going to be a building process at the professional level, but it’s hard not to like what there is to work with.

11. C.J. Culpepper RHP

Culpepper can wind up being another late-round selection that winds up making a difference for Minnesota. The 13th round pick played collegiately for California Baptist and made it to Double-A Wichita last season. He has improved each time repeating a level and that can be expected for 2025.

His 2.89 ERA in 37 1/3 innings for Cedar Rapids ballooned to a 4.71 ERA in 21 innings for Wichita. He threw just 58 1/3 innings in 2024 as he dealt with different maladies. If the health can take a tick for the better next season, then he’ll start at Double-A with an eye on Minnesota by season’s end.

10. Kyle DeBarge INF

DeBarge was the Twins pick at 33rd overall in last year’s draft. That was compensation for losing Sonny Gray in free agency. After a summer on The Cape, DeBarge starred for Louisiana-Lafayette posting a 1.117 OPS in his final year.

In 26 games for Fort Myers to start his career, DeBarge slashed .235/.322/.343. He hit 21 homers in his final collegiate season, but just one so far professional. It may take a bit of time for the swing to translate with wood, but there’s a really good talent here.

9. Gabriel Gonzalez OF

When the Twins made that ill-fated Jorge Polanco trade last offseason, it was largely done out of necessity. Justin Topa is back to make things work at the big league level, but the rest sits on the shoulders of Gonzalez. He isn’t the top-100 prospect that came over in the deal, but there’s still a high ceiling for him.

Injury kept Gonzalez to just 81 games in 2024, but 76 of them came for High-A Cedar Rapids. He posted just a .706 OPS and the biggest change was a dip from 18 home runs in 2023 to just five in 2024. If the power swing returns and he can remain on the field, his stock will be on the rise again.

8. Charlee Soto RHP

A first round pick in 2023, Soto made his professional debut last season. He pitched in the new Spring Breakout Game and then worked for Fort Myers all season. At just 18 years old this season he is still incredibly raw. The ability to push triple digits is beyond exciting, however.

Soto threw 74 innings across 21 games (20 starts). His 5.23 ERA was largely a result of a 4.0 BB/9. Across his final eight outings though, Soto turned a corner and posted a 3.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 34 1/3 innings. He still has to work on pitchability and command, but the stuff is all there.

7. Andrew Morris RHP

A fourth round pick out of Texas Tech in 2022, Morris took a sizable step forward in 2024. His 2.88 ERA was impressive during his first full professional season, but that came at Single-A levels. Last year Morris finished with seven starts at Triple-A St. Paul.

The right-hander owned a 2.37 ERA across 133 innings and posted a career-best 9.0 K/9. He has shown a consistent level of durability and is a reliable arm. He strikes batters out and doesn’t give up free passes. The ceiling isn’t an ace, but he’s better than a fourth or fifth starter too.

6. Cory Lewis RHP

Arguably the most interesting pitcher in the Twins system, Lewis was a 9th round pick in 2022. He throws a knuckleball, but is definitely not a soft-tossing gadget pitcher. The fastball is a legitimate out pitch and he knows how to force batters into tough spots.

After throwing 101 1/3 innings during his debut season, Lewis got in just 79 innings after a spring training setback. He still posted a 2.51 ERA, much of which was derived from 15 games at Double-A. He finished the year with a five inning start for the Saints and could make his major league debut in 2025.

5. Marco Raya RHP

There was debate as to whether it was David Festa or Raya claiming the Twins best pitching prospect entering 2024. Raya scuffled at Double-A and was handled with kid gloves for multiple short starts. The ceiling is still high though, and he could push back to the look of a top-100 prospect.

24 starts for Wichita translated to 92 2/3 innings. He owned a 4.27 ERA with a 9.6 K/9. Walks were an issue and ultimately command could push him to the bullpen. Raya ended the year with a start for the Saints. If Minnesota wants to keep using Raya as a starter, his development time for St. Paul could be longer.

4. Kaelen Culpepper SS

A first round selection at 21st overall in 2024, Culpepper has the looks of a player that should stick on the dirt. The Kansas State product came out of the gates hot, and his .297/.366/.541 slash line for Fort Myers earned him a promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids.

In 17 games with the Kernels, Culpepper owned just a .616 OPS. He’ll get much more time to acclimate with a full spring training, and he should be counted on for a nice season in 2025. How the power and offensive profile develops remains to be seen. His glove and arm are legit, but they may play better at the hot corner.

3.Luke Keaschall 2B

There are few players across minor league baseball that had better seasons than Keaschall did. What’s crazy is that he did so while dealing with a UCL injury. The former second round pick played in the Futures Game, and he could very likely play for Minnesota this season.

Across two levels Keaschall slashed .303/.420/.483 with 15 home runs. He stole 23 bases and has that power/speed profile that is beyond coveted in the infield. The surgery should be healed for spring training, and starting at St. Paul with a quick eye on the big leagues seems logical.

2. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF

When Emmanuel Rodriguez has been on the field, he’s been among the best prospects in the game. Injuries limited him to just 47 games in 2024, but the 21-year-old did plenty with them. He slashed .280/.459/.567 with nine home runs. He is an absolute menace in the box.

There are times that Rodriguez’s strikeouts can mount as he attempts to be choosy at the plate. He may need to attack a bit earlier in counts as he reaches the big leagues. Rodriguez will play for St. Paul, but is a candidate to replace Max Kepler in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. The projection of an All-Star here is very realistic.

1. Walker Jenkins OF

Right now Walker Jenkins is among the top five prospects in all of baseball. It’s possible that he winds up being the sport’s best prospect by the time he reaches Minnesota. The fifth overall pick was part of an amazing 2023 group at the top.

He finished 2024 playing six games for the Wichita Wind Surge. On the year, as just a 19-year-old, Jenkins posted a .282/.394/.439 slash line. He hit six homers, had another four triples, and stole successfully on 17-of-20 attempts. He is a plus defender in centerfield and is a clubhouse asset as well.

If the Twins are dreaming on their next superstar, than Jenkins is absolutely that player. It’s unlikely he plays in the big leagues this season, but 2026 should be the timeline. Another year tearing up the farm system should be a blast to watch.

Monday, January 15, 2024

2024 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects


It's that time of year, and the Minnesota Twins will soon be fully engaged with spring training activities down in Sunny Fort Myers, Florida. Before the season kicks off though, and with prospect positioning set to move, I needed to put out my updated top 15 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball season.

The highest ranked player on the 2023 list, Royce Lewis, has since graduated and he took a couple of players with him. Both Matt Wallner and Louie Varland are no longer prospect eligible, and Edouard Julien joined them in becoming a regular for Rocco Baldelli's squad. It should be expected that a few of these names will move on by the time the dust settles on 2024, and that would be a good outcome in terms of development.

I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below:

2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
2023 Top 15 Prospects

Now to get into the 2024 list:

15. Yunior Severino INF

Signed when the Atlanta Braves were made to forfeit players from an international signing class that they cheated to acquired, Severino has become the darling of that group. He emerged to the highest level of the farm for Minnesota last year and showed thump that could have him as a valuable first base type. There's a lot of swing and miss, but he's now on the 40-man roster and has a clear path to a debut.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

No one has bounced around more on these prospect lists for me over the years than Canterino. Drafted out of Rice, he underwent Tommy John surgery and has dealt with arm issues as many of their pitchers do. Fully healthy, he could be an absolute weapon for Minnesota in relief this year. His stuff is impressive, and should play up even more as a reliever.

13. C.J. Culpepper RHP

A 13th round pick in 2022, Culpepper reached High-A Cedar Rapids in his first full professional season. The 3.56 ERA across 86 innings was impressive, and he owned a 9.3 K/9. There's still plenty of development to take place here, but a late round arm that works in the vein of Bailey Ober or Louie Varland is something to dream on.

12. Kala'i Rosario OF

Sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, Rosario got in extra reps and showed out with the power. He flashed some exciting potential during big league spring training action prior to the 2023 season, and his solid year at High-A should have him ready for the Double-A challenge this season at just 21 years old.

11. Luke Keaschall INF

Minnesota took Keaschall in the second round of the 2023 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State and he immediately took to pro ball. He posted an .892 OPS in 31 games, and helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels secure a championship at the end of the season. He probably starts in Iowa, but could make his way to Double-A Wichita quickly.

10. Tanner Schobel INF

The Virginia Tech product tore up High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023 and earned a promotion to Double-A. He struggled out of the gate for Wichita, but did bat .294 over his final 14 games. He'll need to tap back into some of the power potential that was left in Cedar Rapids, but there's the makings of a big league regular here.

9. Charlee Soto RHP

The Twins took Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he didn't pitch at all last season. Looking to build up his body and prepare for pro ball, 2024 should be a fun debut season. There is an upper-90's fastball in the arsenal, and while he's a high school arm, there is a lot to work with here.

8. Brandon Winokur OF

A tools'd out high school kid taken in the third round of the 2023 draft, Winokur impressed in limited action last year. He posted an .884 OPS across 17 games at the rookie ball level, and he showed off the power and speed combination. The plate discipline is something to watch as he develops, but the ceiling for him is immense.

7. Cory Lewis RHP

Drafted just inside of the first ten rounds during 2022, Lewis has emerged as one of Minnesota's best pitching prospects. He throws a knuckle ball but isn't a knuckleballer. With dominant stuff that led to a 10.5 K/9 in his first pro season, Lewis could start at Double-A in 2024 and may be a late season option for the Twins to consider.

6. Austin Martin INF/OF

Similar to Canterino, Martin has bounced around on my prospect lists. He got back to a workable swing last year, and while the power potential isn't there, he has solid bat to ball skills and has a good contact ability. Speed is the play here, and while exit velocities could limit his overall production, he already profiles as a plus defender in center field.

5. David Festa RHP

Taken in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa represented the Twins at the 2023 Futures Game. He made his way to Triple-A St. Paul and is right there among the best pitching prospects in the organization. Festa can push velocity while also showing a strong command of his pitches. He had 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings last season. Expect to see him at Target Field in 2024.

4. Marco Raya RHP

If Festa isn't the best pitching prospect in the organization, then it is Raya. Just 20 years old and a former prep arm, the Twins already have him at Double-A. He took his lumps for Wichita, but was incredibly young for the level and should be expected to use that experience for significant offseason development. He'll begin 2024 with the Wind Surge again, but getting to Triple-A St. Paul at 21 would be eye-opening.

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF

One of the most exciting prospects across baseball, Rodriguez has significant power potential and his ceiling is that of a slugging corner outfielder with all-star aspirations. He posted a ridiculous .400 OBP for Cedar Rapids last year despite batting just .240, and he doesn't sacrifice plate discipline for power. A meteoric rise could happen this year at 21, but Rodriguez's future is still one to be excited about even if it takes a bit more time.

2. Brooks Lee INF

Maybe the safest bet to be a big league regular for a long time across all organizations in baseball, Lee is near major league ready at this point. He's going to hit for more average than power, and can play shortstop but doesn't necessarily need to. He does everything well, and if any of the tools take another step forward, he'll end his career with more than a few all-star selections under his belt.

1. Walker Jenkins OF

The fifth overall pick from the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft, Jenkins is a superstar in every sense of the word. He may outgrow centerfield as his body develops, but he should hit for average and power while remaining a strong defender and runner. The maturity here is off the charts, and the abilities could push him into future MVP discussions. A 2024 debut isn't going to happen, but all bets should be off in 2025.

Monday, September 18, 2023

2023 Awards Season

We’re just a couple weeks away from the final game of the 2023 Major League Baseball regular season. As postseason races start to take shape, putting a bow on the year that was is necessary. 2023 represented a return to normal baseball for the first year in a while, and we got plenty of highlight performances to watch along the way.

I didn’t write a preseason prediction piece this year, but shared some award thoughts on Twitter. A few of these appear to have aged well, while more have gone completely off the rails. In turning in my IBWAA Award Ballot, here’s what I came up with.


American League MVP: Shohei Ohtani (Runner Up: Corey Seager)

National League MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr (Runner Up: Mookie Betts)

American League Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (Runner Up: Sonny Gray)

National League Cy Young: Blake Snell (Runner Up: Justin Steele)

 

American League Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson (Runner Up: Royce Lewis)

National League Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll (Runner Up: Matt McLain)

 

American League Manager of the Year: Brandon Hyde (Runner Up: Bruce Bochy)

National League Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker (Runner Up: Craig Counsell)

 

American League Reliever of the Year: Felix Bautista (Runner Up: Jordan Romano)

National League Reliever of the Year: David Bednar (Runner Up: Josh Hader)

Monday, January 23, 2023

2023 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

 

Coming into the 2023 Major League Baseball season we have seen plenty of graduations from the top of the Minnesota farm system. Players like Joe Ryan and Jose Miranda are now fully entrenched as big leaguers. With another year removed from the season wiped out by Covid, we have more development having taken place on the farm.

As the Twins head to Fort Myers in a matter of weeks, they will be looking for their youth to again be well positioned to supplement the big league club. Rocco Baldelli’s team is looking to compete in the AL Central this year, and there will at least be a name or two from this group that helps them to do so.

With the last update to this prospect list coming more than a year ago, it’s time for a refresh. Previous rankings can be found below:

2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects

15. Tanner Schobel

A second round pick from Virginia Tech last season, Schobel made his professional debut and spent the bulk of his time at Low-A Fort Myers. In just shy of 30 games he posted a .670 OPS and showed a very strong set of on-base skills. He had a power breakout for the Hokies prior to being drafted, but this is more a solid bat and good fielder than anything.]

14. Matt Canterino RHP

Canterino has appeared all over this list in recent seasons. He threw 37 innings last season before needing Tommy John surgery. At this point he shouldn’t be starting, but he could certainly blossom into a late-inning reliever once returning to a clean bill of health.

13. David Festa RHP

Continuing to creep up prospect lists, Festa’s 2.43 ERA in more than 100 innings last year was impressive. It was his first real season of professional ball and the strikeout rates were nice to see. Festa looked the part of a legit starter at High-A Cedar Rapids, and continuing down that path this season for Double-A Wichita could have him positioned to debut in 2023.

12. Edouard Julien INF

The only reason that Julien isn’t higher on this list is that he’s extremely limited defensively. Julien tore up Double-A for Wichita posting a .931 OPS, and he continued to impress in the Arizona Fall League. There is a very good bat here, and it flashes with both on-base skills and power.

11. Louie Varland RHP

Making his Major League debut for the Twins last season, Varland continues to climb the prospect ranks. His ceiling may not be that of a number two pitcher, but he looks to be a number four at worst and can continue to develop a bit more. This has been an incredible success story.

10. Matt Wallner OF

Wallner made it to the big leagues last year, and it was largely because of changes he made at the plate. His arm has always been solid in the outfield, but reigning in the free-swinging profile to draw more walks and focus on doing damage was huge. There is Brent Rooker downside here, but patience has changed his trajectory some.

9. Yasser Mercedes OF

It’s hard to extrapolate too much from the teenagers playing during the Dominican Summer League, but Mercedes looks special. He posted a .975 OPS and did so with both average and on-base skills to his credit. He looks the part of a toolsy outfielder, and if the bat continues to play, this is a prospect that will keep rising the ranks.

8. Austin Martin INF/OF

It’s pretty clear that Martin is no longer a shortstop, and while he could play either second or third base, he may be best suited for the outfield. After failing to harness power Minnesota was trying to tap into, Martin’s stock could again rise by simply reverting to pure hitter tendencies. He’s not the can’t miss prospect that the Twins acquired from Toronto, but there is a big leaguer here.

7. Simeon Woods Richardson RHP

Acquired alongside Martin in the Jose Berrios trade, Woods Richardson made it to the show first. He distanced himself from the setback that was 2021, and looks the part of a Major League rotation piece. Woods Richardson should get plenty of run at Triple-A this season, and he’ll see time with Minnesota again as well.

6. Jose Salas SS

Part of Minnesota’s return for Luis Arraez from the Miami Marlins, Salas has plenty of unpredictability going forward. As he matures and grows, he could slide to second or third base, but he also profiles as an extremely talented offensive player. Just 19, Salas did post a .723 OPS across two levels of Single-A last season.

5. Marco Raya RHP

A fourth round pick back in 2020, Raya made his professional debut in 2022 after finally being healthy. His 3.05 ERA at Low-A Fort Myers paired nicely with a 10.5 K/9, and his stuff has always looked like he could be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. More development for a kid that is just 20-years-old is needed, but there is plenty to be excited about here.

4. Connor Prielipp LHP

Taken in the 2022 draft, Prielipp had the makings of a first round pick before undergoing surgery. He likely represents Minnesota's best prospect chance at an ace, and he could conceivably be a top-100 prospect nationally by this time next year. The stuff is special, and doing it as a southpaw makes him that much more valuable.

3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF

Playing in Low-A at just 19, Rodriguez turned heads in a big way last year. His 1.044 OPS in the Florida State League was jaw-dropping, and it was only injury that slowed him down. He should be healthy coming into 2023, and there is no reason another strong season couldn’t vault him into the top 25 of prospects lists.

2. Brooks Lee SS

Drafted for his hit tool, Lee did exactly that during his professional debut. He batted .303 with an .839 OPS and made it all the way to Double-A in year one. There is no reason why Lee can’t play for the Twins as early as this year, and he looks to be among the most polished players from any recent draft class.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Making his big league debut in place of Carlos Correa last season, Lewis looked the part of an All-Star shortstop. Another unfortunate injury got him, but the production for the Twins was enough to drool over. It has never seemed wise to doubt Lewis, but his ceiling remains as high as it has ever been.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Picking the Postseason

The Minnesota Twins are not going to make the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason, but there's plenty of exciting action on tap for October. With the field set, I figured it's time to put my predictions on paper.

Rays over Guardians, Blue Jays over Mariners

Tampa wins the battle of pitching having been a bit more battle tested in a ridiculously difficult AL East division. I like the Mariners, but think the Blue Jays lineup is too deep. What Jose Berrios looks like in October could be key for Toronto's rotation.

Phillies over Cardinals, Mets over Padres

The Cardinals are winning at the right time, and well, Philadelphia is not. That said, I think the Phillies are a deep enough team to make a run. Seeing Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright continue the storybook ending would be fun though. For the Mets, in a three game series, it's pretty hard to go against Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.

Yankees over Rays, Astros over Blue Jays

New York's lineup has plenty of questions, but the rotation of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino should be the difference in this series. Houston is just too good here, and I don't think the Blue Jays fare as well in a longer series.

Braves over Phillies, Mets over Dodgers

I'd love to take the Phillies here, but Atlanta is rolling right now and is incredibly deep. They may be the best team in the National League. Despite the regular season success for the Dodgers, I'm concerned about their rotation in the postseason. Again, leaning on deGrom and Scherzer.

Astros over Yankees

Houston goes back to the World Series and they do so as the best team in baseball.

Mets over Braves

Even though the Braves chased down New York in the standings, give me the Mets getting the last laugh.

Astros over Mets

Houston wins yet another World Series, with no scandal attached.