I’ve been waiting for this post all spring. It typically
signifies that the season is just around the corner, and it’s always enjoyable
to put something on the line when looking at what may lie ahead. Thanks to
Bovada’s in depth odds offerings, we have a plethora of great Twins options to
choose from. Looking back at the 2018 results things weren’t pretty. Thanks to
a duo of underperformers and some bad luck, not much went our way. New season,
new opportunity, let’s try to rectify that.
To provide some context for my thought process going into
this, make sure you’re aware I have the Twins winning 92 games and taking the
AL Central this year. If I’m going to be of that belief, I’ll need producers to
back the potential reality. This obviously does leave positive-trending bets
open to being exposed, but it also serves as a foundation for them being
placed.
Jonathan Schoop O/U 22.5 HR
Minnesota quickly turned the page on Brian Dozier by
targeting Schoop early this offseason. After the Brewers decided to non-tender
him, the Twins scooped in and inked a new second basemen to a $7.5 million
deal. 2018 was not kind to Schoop, and after being a first-time All Star in
2017, he plummeted to a .682 OPS. Obviously, the Minnesota front office is
projecting a rebound for him in 2019, and the track record suggests that’s a
fair assumption. Even while scuffling last year Schoop still parked 21
longballs, and that’s noteworthy. Yes, 17 of them came at Camden Yards, and yes,
he hit just four in Miller Park, but this is a bet I’ll gladly make.
Over 22.5 HRs 3*
Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HR
Last season I took the under on this exact same bet, and
Rosario hit 24 on the button. The left fielder swatted 27 back in 2017 and
getting back towards that number seems like a fair bet. Rosario played in just
138 games last season and regressed a bit when it comes to plate discipline.
After making strides for the 2017 season, he got back up to a 42.9% chase rate,
and whiffed 12.7% of the time. Hopefully he can push those numbers back towards
the 2017 marks and utilize a full season to generate complete production. I
feel like Eddie is close to a finished product at this point, which makes this
number seem like such a coin toss.
Over 24.5 HRs 2*
Jose Berrios O/U 190.5 K
During the 2018 campaign Minnesota’s ace tallied 202
strikeouts. He turned in four starts in which he reached double digits, but
none of them came after June 24. On top of that, Berrios struck out five or
less batters in 11 (of his 32) starts. The young Puerto Rican has the stuff to
be among the games best, and a more consistent statistical output could elevate
his overall impact. The double-digit games will still come but avoiding lumps
in 2019 should make a dramatic impact as well. I like Berrios as a dark horse
for the AL Cy Young (you can get him at 25/1), so I’d need to lean towards
year-over-year improvement.
Over 190.5 K 2*
Jose Berrios O/U 12 W
This is another copycat bet from the 2018 season, and Berrios
pushed on that number. In 32 starts he drew just 23 decisions and nearly posted
a .500 record. This Twins club should be better than that one, and while
pitching remains an unknown, there’s no denying who the ace of the staff is.
Barring injury, Berrios will get the most turns, and this lineup should have no
problem supporting good outings.
Over 12 W 3*
Nelson Cruz O/U 33.5 HR
When Derek Falvey went out and signed Cruz, he got the most
prolific power hitter on the open market. No one has more dingers than Cruz
since the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and he did all that work in the
unfriendly confines of Safeco Field. Target Field’s left field line will be a
welcomed site for the Dominican slugger, and it you though Brian Dozier was
pull happy to the bleachers, well just get ready. Cruz is 38, and while father
time is undefeated, give me the reliance on his power for the heart of this
lineup. He hasn’t hit less than 37 taters since 2013 and he played in just 109
games at that point still working into regular playing time.
Over 33.5 HR 4*
Minnesota Twins O/U 84.5 W
The expectation of this bet should be obvious; I started
this piece off suggesting 92 victories for Rocco Baldelli’s first season at the
helm. Minnesota entered the 2018 season with an O/U like this mark, and it’s
only because of the poor year that the number didn’t rise. Sure, the Twins
should’ve done more to address their pitching. That said, Cleveland got worse,
the White Sox aren’t yet ready, and the doldrums of the division are a dumpster
fire. Indicative more of the small payout and long wait, the risk is simply to get
skin in the game.
Over 84.5 W 1*
