We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball
calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to
fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although
a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what
could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The
incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne
and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge.
Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26,
2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for
the American League Central playing out:
1. Minnesota Twins
92-70 (83-79)
No team has done more in the division to take strides
forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was
also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why
I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must
be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait
and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in
their decision making.
2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66)
Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the
division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as
well as Edwin Encarnacion. They’ve replaced the latter with Carlos Santana,
but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat
performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted
career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will
miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among
the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with
surrounding this team.
3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92)
One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White
Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that
Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and
Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery
though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to
top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the
needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed
friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game
jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the
fun ends.
4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90)
Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the
Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking
at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any
real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas
City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also
yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If
you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3rd when
Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League
Baseball Draft.
5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95)
If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then
Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm
system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5th
overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both
Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas
Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks
here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has
provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in
2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years.
