Max Kepler used to be relatively vocal about his decision to
avoid an increased launch angle. He wasn’t looking solely to hit home runs, and
while his goal was to enter the zone on a level swing path, he was just fine
with ground balls. Former Twins beat writer Mike Berardino talked to the outfielder back in the
spring of 2018 and Kepler said as much there. Now he’s become one of the best
outfielders in baseball, and it’s because he’s changed his approach.
Max Kepler’s launch angle progression throughout his career is a thing of beauty.— Andrew Thares (@AndrewThares) June 20, 2019
At 18 degrees this year, Kepler is finally optimizing his swing for his ability to hit the ball hard.
Oh btw, at 91.2 MPH avg exit velo, Kepler is hitting the ball harder than he ever has before. pic.twitter.com/R9T0HjGVC3
Baseball has transitioned to a sport where getting lift on
the baseball provides the optimal route for success. As the game invokes shifts
and the ball is now juicier than ever, lifting the pill over defenders is the
most direct path to generating extra-base hits. Although this may not be a
direct focus for Kepler, it’s a principle that James Rowson has impressed upon
Twins hitters and it’s one Max is putting to use.
In 2019 Kepler owns an 18.5 degrees average launch angle.
Last year that mark was 16.2 degree and in 2017 it sat at just 12.6 degrees of
lift. Launch angle on its own isn’t conducive production, but Max has paired it
with an enhanced exit velocity as well. The 90.9 mph mark this season improves
upon an 89 mph mark last year and an 88 mph tally the season before. Summarizing
it easily, harder and higher is producing the best results of his career.
The percentages reflect what we are seeing in the raw data
as well. Kepler owns a career low 35.7% ground ball rate and a career best
18.3% HR/FB number. His 42.6% hard hit rate is nearly seven percent higher than
his career average and over a five percent improvement from 2018. Despite
chasing and whiffing a bit more often, the contact rate is right on par with
career norms and contact within the zone is a career best 93.9%.
The #MNTwins signed Max Kepler to a 5yr/$35MM deal this offseason.— Ted (@tlschwerz) June 20, 2019
He’s been worth $22.8MM in 2019 already per @fangraphs
The #MNTwins signed Jorge Polanco to a 5yr/$27.75MM deal this offseason.
He’s been worth $22.2MM in 2019 already per @fangraphs
Through just 70 games played Kepler has the 7th
best fWAR total among outfielders. He’s the second best in the American League
trailing only a guy named Mike Trout. Minnesota saw the value in their German
native this offseason and extended him for $35 million over five years.
Fangraphs estimates his worth as already being over half of that mark
($21.8MM).
When you hear launch angle from a place of scrutiny it
generally is assumptive of the idea that players are simply swinging up through
the zone attempting to get lift. The practice is built around creating hard
contact on the bottom portion of the baseball. A level swing can still be
utilized with the point of contact being honed in. Combining lift with an enhanced
exit velocity is where the power stroke comes from. As balls are being thrown
harder than ever, they’re also being put in play at a similarly increasing
velocity.
Minnesota’s instruction may not have transformed Kepler’s
swing plane through the zone, but it’s certainly worked to adjust the contact
point and process when putting the ball in play. Regardless of if the baseball
leaves the yard, Kepler is hitting the ball harder and longer than ever before.
It’s because of that fact he’s experiencing a jump in performance and the Twins
look to be the benefactor of belief over the next five years.
