Prior to the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota
Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi in exchange for Jermaine Palacios. At the time,
Palacios was a second or third tier prospect that had some internal fanfare. Swapping
him for a big-league starter was a no-brainer though. Jake’s first season with
the Twins was mostly mediocre, but there was reason to believe he was better
than the numbers.
Across 32 starts a season ago Odorizzi owned a 4.49 ERA, 8.9
K/9, and a 3.8 BB/9. He dropped his home run rate significantly, and while the
WHIP was a career worst, a 4.20 FIP suggested a bit more was in the tank. Fast
forward to where we are today and Odorizzi owns a league best 1.96 ERA, 9.8
K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. His 226 ERA+ leads the league and he has all the makings of
a Cy Young candidate.
In terms of increased production, nothing has substantially
jumped off the page. The step forward has been the culmination of tweaks made
across the board. Jake now owns a strikeout rate of 28%, a 6% increase over his
2018 mark. The walks are down while both the homers and hits have tailed off as
well. If there’s something substantial to note, it’s the incredible 83.6%
strand rate.
Batted ball profiles suggest that hitters are producing the
same type of contact against the former Rays starter. Hard hit rates are static
over the past two years, and trajectories are also all in line. The difference
in induced contact likely comes in the form of velocity and offering. Odorizzi
has added 2 mph to his average fastball, and the 11% curveball usage is over
double the rate that it’s been since any point following 2013.
You’d have been hard pressed to see comments with a positive
tone regarding many of Odorizzi’s starts a season ago. Despite the mediocre
results, and a bit better in terms of peripherals, there wasn’t much excitement
about the possibility of a 2019 rebound. Today we’re in a place that Odorizzi
is often looked upon as a certainty when toeing the rubber, and the results
have followed. It’s hard not to be happy about the reality that the changes
haven’t been dramatic.
If there’s an extension candidate in the Twins rotation,
then Odorizzi is it. Still just 29 years old, he should have more than a few
years of high-level production still ahead of him. Knowing Minnesota has a few
rotation holes to fill for the year ahead, Odorizzi slotting in as one of the
guarantees would be a welcomed presence. Unfortunately, by waiting through this
season Minnesota will have to deal with an inflated price tag. At the end of
the day though, the Twins aren’t hurting for cash flow and wrapping up a
starter this good is something they should jump at.
Derek Falvey and Wes Johnson have helped to overhaul the
Twins pitching process, and the infrastructure set up throughout the system
makes it a sustainable solution for years to come.
