Needing a starting pitcher, the Minnesota Twins front office
send minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi.
Palacios had some hype but was never a top prospect, while Odorizzi had been
largely mediocre and was set to turn 28. It’s hard not to see more upside in a big-league
starter under team control, but this leap forward has been immense for the
former Tampa starter.
Odorizzi was often chided for his efforts by Twins fans last
season. He posted a 4.49 ERA backed by a 4.20 FIP. The 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9
were right in line with career norms. On a bad team he was hardly a large issue
and generally pitched better than the surface level numbers suggested. In 2019
he’s gone gangbusters though, and he’s made his first All Star game to show for
it.
Cooling off some over the last few weeks, Odorizzi still
owns a 2.73 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 85.2 IP. His FIP and xFIP suggest a bit more
regression could be coming, but there’s a visible change that’s been made by
the pitcher Minnesota trots out as their number two starter. Having been a low
90’s guy his whole big-league career, Odorizzi has added two mph of velocity
under the tutelage of Wes Johnson and is now averaging 93.1 mph on the pitch
this season. Not only is he throwing harder, but Odorizzi has shifted his repertoire
to flip a career high number of sinkers, taking away from both his cutter and splitter.
This new version of Odorizzi is giving up a career high percentage
of hard-hit balls, but he’s missing bats at record marks as well. The 12.4%
whiff rate is a new high-water mark, while his contact rate is down to just 74.3%
and the zone contact rate stands under 80% (78.5%) for the first time in his
career. A slight jump in hard hit rate could be explainable through the
increased velocity, but even still with that development, missing more barrels
is the key component here.
Over the course of his career Odorizzi has averaged 1.2 HR/9
and has never been below the 1.0 mark. Through his first 16 starts he’s allowed
just eight homers and is at 0.8 HR/9 on the season. Shedding hits and walks as
well, the 1.074 WHIP stands out on its own. Having been integrated into the
Twins system a year ago, and now working with a pitching thinktank that’s been
overhauled, he’s reaping the rewards.
Next season Odorizzi will find himself on the open market
for the first time in his career. The Twins have a couple of holes in their rotation
that they’ll need to commit arms to. We don’t yet know how the club will
navigate the trade market but extending a guy they already have in house may
certainly make some sense.
Last season Jake Odorizzi was getting his feet wet with
Minnesota and simply going through the motions he had always practiced to
compete. This season he’s been given a few new tools that have taken his game
to the next level and everyone involved has benefitted from it.
