It hasn’t quite been a year, and unfortunately, we aren’t
yet to the point of embarking upon Fort Myers for Spring Training, but the
Minnesota Twins signed Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to contract extensions last
offseason. Both deals felt incredibly team friendly at the time, but Ozzie
Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. already had preconditioned us for those feelings.
Now after the first season into their extensions with the Twins, Kepler and
Polanco have already paid for themselves.
For two straight seasons the Twins were looking for Kepler
to take the next step forward. First, he didn’t hit lefties, and then he didn’t
hit righties. After toiling to the tune of a low .700 OPS for his first three
big league seasons, the German native broke out with an .855 OPS in 2019. His
36 home runs nearly surpassed the previous two seasons combined, and he took on
a bigger role than one may have ever predicted.
Like his teammate and extension partner, Jorge Polanco
finally arrived as well. There were glimpses of the bat, and that was always
his calling card, but inconsistent playing time over his first three years didn’t
result in ideal production. Getting into 153 games during 2019, Polanco
parlayed the exposure into an .841 OPS that was only watered down by some late
season slumping. He finished with a .295 average and was in contention for a
batting title through June.
When the dust settled Kepler had accumulated 4.4 fWAR which
Fangraphs estimates being worth $35.3 million. Polanco posted a 4.0 fWAR, valuing
his production at $32.3 million. Both players, in the first years of their $35
and $25 million extensions respectively, outproduced the total contract
valuation. It’s that sort of performance that Minnesota was undoubtedly hoping
for when offering up both deals, and although Polanco’s sagged in part because
of a previous suspension, the reward was an immediate payday in exchange for
belief of future production.
This offseason the Twins opportunities are less certain.
Miguel Sano looks the part of a star slugger, but his defensive acumen leaves
much to be desired. Derek Falvey could instead choose to go year-to-year on
that type of player, leaving the flexibility to move on if and when things hit
the skids. Eddie Rosario is a power hitter that does little else at the plate,
and he looks more destined to be jettisoned than act as a future cog in this
wheel. It’s Jose Berrios that’s most desirable to lock down, but does a guy
knocking on the door of the upper tier really want to give away his earning
potential?
Then there’s the case of Byron Buxton, a transcendent talent
that only remains in the way of himself. Injury has cost him time on the field,
and that’s really been the only downfall over the course of his career. Even
when the offense lagged behind the exceptional fielding, he was so good in
center that it allowed for his lackluster production at the plate to be
overlooked. If there’s any sort of belief in keeping him on the field consistently,
then 2019 was the embodiment of a turned corner and complete player ready to
blast off. Like Berrios, Buxton has plenty of future earnings at stake here,
but the injury situation could cloud the future before it ever arrives.
Minnesota’s front office made conscious decisions when it
came to wrapping up foundational pieces last offseason, and they nailed both.
They’ll have similar opportunities this time around, and being flush with cash,
there’s little reason for them not to support the belief in their own
assessments. These things take two sides to consummate any action, but the
Twins certainly would love to come up on the winnings side in year one for the
second season in a row.
