Making the Most of Miguel

 

Early on this season Miguel Sano might have been the biggest mess he’s even been during his big league career. There was an inability to time a fastball, and he was a detriment to the Twins lineup. That has changed, and he’s back to being who he’s always been.

Rewind to the Twins slog through April and May to find a slumping Miguel Sano. The team was bad, and Sano owned a .675 OPS at that point. His playing time was reduced as he was splitting reps with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Eventually he’d begin to ride the pine even more often, and there was clamoring from fans to DFA him and pass him down to the St. Paul Saints.

Fast forward to where we are now. Sano isn’t having some sort of revolutionary resurgence, but since June 4 he’s posted an .815 OPS with 22 extra-base hits (including nine home runs) in 47 games. The batting average is respectable (.256) for a power hitter, and while the on-base percentage isn’t where he’d like it (.321) the number is passable.

All season long the problem has been timing more than anything else. His strikeout rate is 35.6%, or below his career average, and substantially below the 43.9% he posted in 2020. Sano’s hard hit rate is above his career average, and basically in line with some of his best seasons. Unfortunately, his barrel rate is at a three-year low, and that again is indicative of point of contact. Sano has dropped his whiff rate back to 2019 levels however, and his CSW% is right below his career norm.

When Miguel Sano squares one up it goes a LONG way pic.twitter.com/ZrojBDkP3n

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) August 8, 2021

What we’re seeing is the same player that Minnesota paid $30 million over three years for. The problem is that the peaks and valleys have been more pronounced, but at this point you’d have hoped the organization had a better idea as to the player they have. Sano is a former top prospect, but not in the vein of a Guerrero Jr. or even Buxton. Miguel’s tools have always been plus-plus power and a plus-plus arm. Yes, he was a young Dominican shortstop, but it quickly became apparent he wouldn’t stick there. He’s passable at third base, but the frame has always profiled better at first base, a position he’s actually adequate at.

The .923 OPS Sano posted in 2019 is very likely a mirage given his tendency to be inconsistent. His .859 OPS as an All-Star in 2017 makes a lot more sense. The average will always lag behind, but he actually commands the zone well and his hard contact output will always trend towards a slugging outcome. Given the run, he’s a good bet for 25-30 homers a year, and as a guy you can put in the bottom half of a lineup, that seems like a decent asset.

It’s very clear that Miguel Sano isn’t a foundational cornerstone. He can absolutely be worth what the Twins front office decided to pay him though. Committing to him on a regular basis rather than second guessing what he is through slumps doesn’t make a ton of sense. He’s the type of player that isn’t going to benefit from extended time off. Not all prospects pan out the same way, and while this isn’t the 99^th percentile of where you’d like development to be, that might not be the worst thing any ways. If Sano was the best version of himself, paying him $30 million might not have happened in order to send him elsewhere for another hopeful return.

Tide Turning for Twins Pair

 

It always had to be this way. This was the only plausible outcome. As the Twins look towards a resurgence, the talent had to rise to the occasion. For a pair of Minnesota mashers, it’s starting to happen.

 

Coming into the 2021 season Rocco Baldelli’s club had won two straight AL Central division titles while also having heightened expectations for the year ahead. There wasn’t supposed to be a slide, and the roster as constructed should’ve been among the best in baseball. The results haven’t followed that narrative, but there’s never been a doubt when it comes to what this team is capable of.

 

The reality for Minnesota is that regression struck for so many at roughly the same time. April was not a good month, and to be frank, May hasn’t been that great either. Combined with injuries and a slight covid scare, suggesting nothing has gone right would be putting it kindly. Now faced with a stretch of winnable games and opportunity for a turnaround, having a resurgence from a few guys at once would be nice.

 

Enter Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver.

 

Sano has long been a lightning rod of criticism for Twins fans. He’s a prolific power hitter that, at his best, remains an on-base and slugging machine. If he’s not hitting the fastball though, he’s a check swinging mess and the value tanks. After discussion surrounding a demotion cropped up, an eventual benching took place following the May 8 contest. We’ve seen this before with the Dominican, and he’s responded by righting the ship. Once again, that’s playing out before our eyes.

 

In 13 games since being put on the pine, Sano has reinvigorated his season. Across 51 plate appearances he has a .261/.333/.717 slash line to go with nine extra base hits, six of which have left the yard. The 16 strikeouts are still high, and you’d like to see more than four walks, but it’s apparent his process is back to a better place. Earlier this season Sano was leading the league in free passes, and it was a timing issue that had him failing to produce the bigger results. Now the timing is there, and while the discipline may have slid a bit, dreaming on a more perfect combination gives the Twins their middle of the order threat back.

 

Funny enough, a teammate of Sano’s also finds himself in a similar situation. Although Mitch Garver was never benched this season, he’s dealt with plenty of maladies along with an inability to crush the fastball as has become his calling card. With just a .644 OPS through April, a flipped script was necessary come May. Across 56 plate appearances this month Garver owns a .261/.393/.500 slash line with five extra base hits including three dingers. I think it’s a bit far-fetched to assume Mitch is the backstop with a near 1.000 OPS that he was in 2019, but anything north of .850 in that regard makes him among the best hitting catchers in baseball.

 

When Garver is right, he’s barreling the ball, but more importantly he’s working counts and taking walks. Garver has always excelled as a hitter due to his ability to be patient and find his pitch. The 43/13 K/BB is still out of whack, but in May it’s been an exceptional 16/10 K/BB and that will play all year long.

 

It’s hard to fathom a complete turnaround for Minnesota. The hole they dug themselves out of the gate has been immense. That said, if the expectation was for this team to be great coming into the year, all of those pieces are still in place. Getting guys back to a median level of expectations will bear fruit, and given the quality of competition within the division, a run is hardly unfathomable.

 

Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano have begun to turn their tide, now the Twins need others to continue following suit.

Twins Bets Worth Cashing in 2021

 

Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into. Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on Minnesota performances in the year ahead.

 

I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it.

 

Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts

 

Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total.

 

Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs

 

In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers, and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact, the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of an offense that provides plenty of thump.

 

Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs

 

Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback. There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks.

 

Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins

 

This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the 90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch.

 

Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1)

 

The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory, so taking a flier makes sense.

 

AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1)

 

Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago. That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking, while going the distance to establish him as an ace.

Twins May Need to Shuffle Opening Day

There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins are one of baseball’s most exciting teams. Their bullpen should rank among the league’s best, and the lineup is one that provides envy to virtually every other group out there. Kicking off a weird 2020 season though, they may need to make some changes.

When Byron Buxton went down in a heap after tracking a fly ball on Monday night the worst was feared. Fortunately, it’s just a mid-foot sprain, and while that may have some lingering effects, there’s still reason to believe the recovery could be sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for the Twins, their starting first basemen is uninjured but has yet to show up to Summer Camp.

Miguel Sano received a positive test diagnosis upon returning to Target Field. Quarantined and awaiting two negative COVID-19 tests before his return, the runway to ramp up for the season is running out. The Twins travel to Chicago in five days, play an exhibition against the Cubs in six, and open their 2020 campaign against the White Sox in eight. Calling a return that quickly rushed would be putting it lightly.

So, where does that leave us?

Let’s tackle the more probable scenario, who plays first base? That answer should be relatively straightforward with utility man Marwin Gonzalez sliding in. MarGo has started 154 games at first base in his career and has logged over 1,400 innings there. He’s still best suited in left field, but there really isn’t a position besides shortstop that he’s overly stretched in. Certainly, Sano’s bat would be preferred, but having Marwin trend back towards the .900 OPS he compiled while listening to the trash can would be a nice resurgence.

Assuming Buxton isn’t back for Opening Day, or even a few games thereafter, Gonzalez is actually piece of that puzzle as well. Sliding Max Kepler to center and filling a corner spot with the utility man makes a ton of sense. With him already in the lineup, the next turn would logically be Jake Cave. While LaMonte Wade Jr. has a strong on-base presence, Cave is the more complete player. He should be avoided in center but has a good enough bat to play on the corners.

Last season Cave finished with an .805 OPS, but what’s even more impressive is having done that after bottoming out at a .615 OPS prior to a May demotion. From his mid-June return through the end of the year he posted an .855 OPS. In 141 plate appearances from July 7 onward he generated a very nice .964 mark. The bat may be inconsistent, but it’s plenty capable.

Both of these should be relatively short-term scenarios. For Sano, we see the effects of COVID-19 and what the virus is going to do to this season. A player with no symptoms tests positive and costs the team their services over a specific stretch of games. In a 60-game season, that missed time could be catastrophic, especially if said player is Josh Donaldson or Jose Berrios.

On the Buxton side, contingency plans in the outfield remain a must for Minnesota. Unfortunate and unlucky as he is health wise, any absence by Byron will need to be evaluated in the short and long term. Immediately a Cave or Wade replacement makes sense. Knowing that him being out of the lineup opens a corner spot, both Brent Rooker and Trevor Larnach could then find themselves in the mix for a more prolonged absence.

Let’s hope we aren’t discussing these scenarios too long into 2020, and their realities are few and far between. Minnesota has a shot at the World Series this year, but they’ll need all contributors for as much time as necessary.

Miguel Making Good in Year 27

Take some time to watch Ballplayer: Pelotero during quarantine. Everyone has plenty of that right now and remembering the mega-prospect a teenage Miguel Sano was should not be lost on anyone. Now today, on his 27^th birthday, we get to look back on what’s been accomplished.

Through parts of five Major League seasons Sano has amassed 8.5 career fWAR. He was in the running for a Rookie of the Year award, has made an All-Star Game, and surpassed the 100-career homer plateau. He’s also been asked to play right field, suffered significant injury, and experienced a demotion from the big leagues all the way back to Single-A.

To suggest Miguel Sano’s career with the Twins has been eventful would be putting it lightly.

Here’s the thing though, we’ve been given more than a glimpse into the reality that the mega-prospect was worthy of all that hoopla. No, he’s not the skinny shortstop that he was way back in those Dominican days, but that was also never the expectation. He’s since moved from the hot corner to first base and plays the part of a hulking corner bat. He’s the definitive member of a team dubbed the “Bomba Squad” and his efforts of late rewarded him to the tune of a $30MM contract extension.

It would always be hard for a guy with Sano’s profile to create substantial value in multiple avenues of the game. He’s an average defender at best, and he now plays a non-premium position. Should he assume Nelson Cruz’s designated hitter role in the years ahead, that becomes even more of an accepted reality. At the plate though, he’s one of the most feared hitters in the game, and since buying into his ability the production has only taken steps forward.

The argument I’ve always made in relation to Sano is that there was never a talent issue. He’s got the ability to be one of the best power hitters in the whole sport. What has always held him back was the reliance on that fact, rather than the execution and effort in order to accomplish it. Maybe it was the guidance of Nelson Cruz, maybe it was the leadership of Rocco Baldelli, or maybe it was Sano himself deciding he was done settling; any or all of those things could be true, but we’re at a point where the Twins are getting the best version of a player they’ve long hoped for.

#MNTwins home run leaders through age 26 season:

1. Tom Brunansky - 162 HR
*2. MIGUEL SANO - 118 HR*
3. Kent Hrbek - 117 HR
4. Justin Morneau - 110 HR

With his new contract, Sano is in a good position to break some team records. https://t.co/o3kH69zhKz

— Matthew Taylor (@MatthewTaylorMN) May 11, 2020

Sano has already vaulted himself up organization leaderboards. Only Tom Brunansky had hit more home runs through their age 26 season than that of Sano. He’s got the ability and time to become Minnesota second best home run hitter ever, and he’s already suggested that his desire would be to play out his entire career in Minnesota.

We’re way too far off to make any determinations regarding the dust settling, but I think it’s pretty hard not to be excited about what is yet to come. Finding ways to play himself out of a lineup spot, or lacking commitment to produce at anything but his best, are both hopefully behind him. If those realities remain true, then the entirety of the Twins organization will be in store to reap the benefits of this guy for many years to come.

Happy 27^th Miguel, and here’s to lots of fun ahead.

Sano Reaches Promised Land in New Deal

After having avoided arbitration hearings for the vast majority of their existence, the Minnesota Twins looked like they may be headed to the table with both Jose Berrios and Miguel Sano. Then after the clock had struck seven, Jeff Passan broke the news that the Dominican slugger is staying in a Twins uniform for a while.

Third baseman Miguel Sano is in agreement with the Minnesota Twins on a three-year contract extension, a source familiar with the deal tells ESPN. It includes a club option for the 2023 season and will buy out two year sof free agency.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 11, 2020

Earlier on in the evening it was noted that Minnesota and Miggy had not reached an agreement. While that may suggest things trending towards a filing disparity or a hearing, it was then later reported the club had inked him to a three-year, $30 million contract. Sano will receive $27 million over the first three years, with a $14 million club option or $3 million buyout in year four.

Slated to hit free agency in the 2022 season, this new deal buys out two years of free agency with the possibility of a third. The deal will take Sano through his age-30 season, and could keep him in a Twins uniform until after he turns 31.

After being a heralded prospect expected to lead the Twins to the Promised Land, he’s gone through quite a bit of growing pains. From nearly winning Rookie of the Year, to playing right field, to off-field transgressions, a demotion to Single-A, and ultimately a rise that culminated in a career year, the 26-year-old has experience it all.

That career year in 2019 shouldn’t be looked at solely through numbers either. It started out with a trip from Rocco Baldelli to the Dominican, and was soon aided by the presence of elder-slugger Nelson Cruz. The message has been one of maturation and commitment. Sano has always possessed the entire toolkit when it comes to playing baseball, but choosing to harness it has been a different story. He put in the work both physically and mentally last year, and unsurprisingly the results followed.

Over 105 games Sano clubbed 34 dingers and posted a .923 OPS. His .346 OBP and .576 SLG were noteworthy on their own. He generated a 138 OPS+ and looked the part of a power bat in one of the most dangerous lineups in the sport.

The extension follows a similar pattern to those handed out to both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco a year prior. The hope would now be that the Twins would hammer out a deal with starting pitcher Jose Berrios. Both he and Byron Buxton look the part of future cogs as well, and coming to a common ground that creates future certainty would be a great development for the club.

Minnesota still has work to do this offseason, but they nailed this in locking down their Bringer of Sano.

It’s entirely conceivable that by the time Miguel Sano plays out his new #MNTwins contract, he’s second all time on the home run list in Minnesota history.

— Ted (@tlschwerz) January 11, 2020

New Metrics Paint Ugly Picture for Twins Infield

In the ever-expanding quest for information, Baseball Savant unveiled new metrics for public consumption yesterday. We’ve had Outs Above Average for a couple of years now, but it’s only related to outfielders. Now thanks to technology provided through Statcast we have quantifiable infield numbers. For the Twins, that’s not a great thing.

At the top of the infield leaderboards there are plenty of familiar names. Javier Baez paces the league with 19 OAA. He’s followed by Nolan Arenado and Andrelton Simmons. Nick Ahmed gets in there before Trevor Story and then Matt Chapman. Everyone in that group is considered an elite defender of the dirt. When looking for Minnesota Twins though, they’re nowhere to be found.

Marwin Gonzalez was the highest performer of Rocco Baldelli’s squad, posting 7 OAA (good enough for 19^th). You can then skip over the since departed Jonathan Schoop (5/31^st) and C.J. Cron (1/99^th) before reaching another currently rostered player. As a part-time player, Ehire Adrianza posted a -1 OAA (147^th) and Miguel Sano checked in at -5 OAA (194^th). That leaves just Luis Arraez (-6/206^th) and Jorge Polanco, whose -16 OAA is tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for dead last (218^th).

If you think back to 2019 there was a quiet concern as defensive ability dipped for Minnesota as the season went on. The reality isn’t necessarily that the unit got substantially worse, but that without Byron Buxton in the outfield, the over output was weighed down much more heavily by the sagging infield. Three of the infield spots are already spoken for in 2020, and unless there’s a concentrated jump in performance, they can be expected to provide much of the same.

Even without digging into advanced analytics, it was visible to the naked eye that Minnesota left plenty to be desired on the dirt. A poor infield makes groundball pitchers less than ideal fits for team construction, so seeing an appeal in Dallas Keuchel was always hard, and a reunion with Kyle Gibson might have been hard to swing.

Right now, we only have three years of OAA infield data at our disposal, but it will be interesting to see how the Twins look to evolve and attack the deficiency in 2020. Rather than dismissing the information as too invasive, it’s at least worth acknowledging that it describes exactly what we were able to see and solidify there may be a problem worth addressing.

Will Twins Double Down on Extension Excellence?

It hasn’t quite been a year, and unfortunately, we aren’t yet to the point of embarking upon Fort Myers for Spring Training, but the Minnesota Twins signed Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to contract extensions last offseason. Both deals felt incredibly team friendly at the time, but Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. already had preconditioned us for those feelings. Now after the first season into their extensions with the Twins, Kepler and Polanco have already paid for themselves.

For two straight seasons the Twins were looking for Kepler to take the next step forward. First, he didn’t hit lefties, and then he didn’t hit righties. After toiling to the tune of a low .700 OPS for his first three big league seasons, the German native broke out with an .855 OPS in 2019. His 36 home runs nearly surpassed the previous two seasons combined, and he took on a bigger role than one may have ever predicted.

Like his teammate and extension partner, Jorge Polanco finally arrived as well. There were glimpses of the bat, and that was always his calling card, but inconsistent playing time over his first three years didn’t result in ideal production. Getting into 153 games during 2019, Polanco parlayed the exposure into an .841 OPS that was only watered down by some late season slumping. He finished with a .295 average and was in contention for a batting title through June.

When the dust settled Kepler had accumulated 4.4 fWAR which Fangraphs estimates being worth $35.3 million. Polanco posted a 4.0 fWAR, valuing his production at $32.3 million. Both players, in the first years of their $35 and $25 million extensions respectively, outproduced the total contract valuation. It’s that sort of performance that Minnesota was undoubtedly hoping for when offering up both deals, and although Polanco’s sagged in part because of a previous suspension, the reward was an immediate payday in exchange for belief of future production.

This offseason the Twins opportunities are less certain. Miguel Sano looks the part of a star slugger, but his defensive acumen leaves much to be desired. Derek Falvey could instead choose to go year-to-year on that type of player, leaving the flexibility to move on if and when things hit the skids. Eddie Rosario is a power hitter that does little else at the plate, and he looks more destined to be jettisoned than act as a future cog in this wheel. It’s Jose Berrios that’s most desirable to lock down, but does a guy knocking on the door of the upper tier really want to give away his earning potential?

Then there’s the case of Byron Buxton, a transcendent talent that only remains in the way of himself. Injury has cost him time on the field, and that’s really been the only downfall over the course of his career. Even when the offense lagged behind the exceptional fielding, he was so good in center that it allowed for his lackluster production at the plate to be overlooked. If there’s any sort of belief in keeping him on the field consistently, then 2019 was the embodiment of a turned corner and complete player ready to blast off. Like Berrios, Buxton has plenty of future earnings at stake here, but the injury situation could cloud the future before it ever arrives.

Minnesota’s front office made conscious decisions when it came to wrapping up foundational pieces last offseason, and they nailed both. They’ll have similar opportunities this time around, and being flush with cash, there’s little reason for them not to support the belief in their own assessments. These things take two sides to consummate any action, but the Twins certainly would love to come up on the winnings side in year one for the second season in a row.

What Has Arraez Played Himself Into?

The Minnesota Twins have had more than a handful of exciting points of player growth in 2019. Maybe none have been more impressive than Luis Arraez. From fringe prospect to primary second basemen, the rise has been nothing short of meteoric. At this point he’s all but destined to open 2020 as the club’s starting second basemen, but is that his long (or even near) term home?

Through 64 games and just shy of 250 plate appearances, he owns an .836 OPS and is batting .335. He’s never going to be a power hitter, and if he ever puts 10 balls out of the park in a single season any team would be ecstatic. What he can be though, is an ideal leadoff hitter with great average skills and elite on-base production thanks to plate discipline that’s otherworldly. He handles the bat to the point that Tony Gwynn would be proud of, and his approach at the plate in unwavering.

It is for those reasons that he’s played himself into the starting second basemen role when Opening Day comes knocking. Nick Gordon hasn’t yet made his major league debut, and as his chief competition, it isn’t surprising to suggest that Arraez would have a leg up. From a second base perspective alone, it’s worth wondering if that spot isn’t more circumstantial than anything else for Arraez.

Eventually the hope would be that Royce Lewis would make his MLB debut and take over as Minnesota’s starting shortstop. Jorge Polanco is not long for that position, even though he’s made strides this year. The arm is still questionable there, and Polanco has gone through bouts of inconsistency as he works through his throwing process. Signed to a long-term extension, Polanco isn’t like to move out of the organization any time soon, and an up-the-middle-tandem seems to be destined for Lewis and Polanco.

There also has always been the idea that Miguel Sano is not long for third base. Although he’s hung around the average-to-slightly-below mark this season, a body that big seems to profile more on the other corner. Thad Levine recently suggested that Minnesota doesn’t see Sano as an ideal fit at 1B presently, and they see third as an easier avenue to keeping him engaged in the action. As necessity pushes him from the spot though, they may need to re-evaluate their plans.

So, assuming Polanco slides over at short is filled, Arraez could find himself at the hot corner. This is all assuming the hit tool continues to play, but the position makes some sense. He’s almost always been a second basemen on the farm, and his time there has tripled the third action with the Twins. In 282 innings at second however, he owns a -6 DRS and -1.7 UZR. The 100-inning sample at 3B is incredible small, but he’s been worth 0 DRS and a -0.5 UZR. Minnesota will get plenty more data to evaluate prior to decision making time, but it’s a narrative to monitor.

If everything develops on an expected and linear track (which is to essentially say this won’t happen at all), then Lewis and Polanco man the middle for Minnesota by late 2020. At that point Sano could then move to 1B or DH (after Nelson Cruz is gone) and Arraez slides into the hot corner. Maybe Luis won’t continue to hit (seems unlikely) or maybe he’ll be dealt (not sure that’s probable), but second base doesn’t seem like the guaranteed long-term fit for the Venezuelan and I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with that.

Holding Up the Bargain’s Other End

Over the offseason a consistent narrative from the Minnesota Twins front office was one of patience. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine consistently suggested that many of the near-future decisions would hinge on the production of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Back in early February I wondered if that reality didn’t make Sano and Buxton out to be scapegoats. Fortunately for all parties involved, one half of the duo has forced the hand of the Front Office.

Through the first 39 games Minnesota has 25 wins, is leading the AL Central, and owns the best record in all of baseball. This team is hitting a ridiculous amount of home runs, the starting pitching has been exceptional, and the bullpen has been far better than expected. Looking at the two-headed monster discussed from the outset, Byron Buxton owns an .816 OPS while being arguably the best defender in the game, and Miguel Sano is yet to step on the field.

Following the publishing of that February piece one large move was made that both addressed some payroll concerns, as well as adding significant talent to the roster. Marwin Gonzalez was inked to a two-year pact for $21 million. As arguably the best super-utility player in baseball, he provided a level of insurance against slumps and injuries all over the field. Called upon to start at third base from the get-go with Sano’s injury, he’ll now slot back into a versatile role once Miguel is activated later this week.

In fact, it’s the return of Sano that brings up this talking point sooner than the July 31^st trade deadline. All we know about the Dominican slugger at this point is that he showed up to Spring Training in a shape reflective of a commitment level not yet seen from him. Despite an injury delaying his debut, he put up solid numbers in a very small rehab sample size. He also has a profile that fits in nicely with what this team is attempting to accomplish when he is right.

Looking for a floor, Miguel Sano is the hitter who owned a .679 OPS a season ago. There’s a ton of power, way too many swings and misses, along with some questionable-at-best defense over at the hot corner. His ceiling looks something like the 2015 version where he posted a .916 OPS across 80 games and showed both plate discipline as well as prowess. A reality lying somewhere in the middle, lots of home runs, a good number of walks, and a handful of swings and misses, would be an optimal outcome for Rocco Baldelli to dispose.

For the Twins, Byron Buxton already is that. He hasn’t flashed his peak, but he’s also nowhere near his floor. Performing at the level he is now, serious consideration for some personal accolades could be given, and he’s doing it within the structure of a team capable of making a run. For Falvey and Levine, the two linchpins of the equation are now forcing them to re-evaluate.

There’s no denying that the window is just beginning to open in Twins Territory. The division should remain down for some time, the farm system is among the best in baseball, and the big-league club has talent capable of high production for the next three to five years. Supplementing this team, and the ones that come after it is now a must, and it’s this front office that I’d pick to have in charge.

With the focus being put on Buxton and Sano, Falvey and Levine effectively said when we win, we’ll go to work. Knowing that this team has holes but is capable of more, there’s reason to believe additions prior to the July 31^st deadline make a ton of sense. A bigger price tag may come with the earlier acquisition cost, but for a team looking to add in 2019 and beyond, reinforcements should be of the long-term view as well. Whether under team control into 2020 and beyond, or free agent deals with multiple years, commitment and buy in is where moves need to lean.

It’s not time to push Falvey and Levine on execution just yet, we haven’t even hit mid-May. If we’re through min-June before this club is adding additional talent though, they’ll have suggested a wait and see approach only to close their eyes. I don’t foresee that result taking place, and if trade returns like that of Brian Dozier or Jermaine Palacios are any indication, the duo at the top for Minnesota should be trusted with full authority.

Puddin’ Providin’ Proof at Third Base

Miguel Sano won a Dominican Winter League championship this offseason. He also showed up to Spring Training in a much more trimmed down fashion. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he suffered an unfortunate cut on his heel and has now dealt with healing complications that will shelve him until May. Prior to this development, I wasn’t sure that everyone’s favorite folk hero Willians Astudillo was going to make the 25-man roster. Now it’s all but guaranteed, and the rubber begins to hit the road.

Going into 2019 Rocco Baldelli will almost certainly employ Marwin Gonzalez as his starting third basemen. Gonzalez was acquired as a free agent after having served in a super utility role for the Houston Astros. He had a down 2018 but has previously put up gaudy offensive numbers. His most vital contribution is that he can spell players all over the diamond and should end up playing no less than five different positions for Minnesota in 2019. What that also means is he’ll need a break at the hot corner.

Enter La Tortuga.

Astudillo has set Twins Territory ablaze with her persona and ability since emerging on the scene. He joined the Twins organization, his fourth professionally, in 2018. At Triple-A Rochester he posted a .782 OPS that is just a tick above his .754 minors mark/ His calling card has been the way he attacked pitches, and his bat to ball abilities. In over 2,400 minor league plate appearances Willians has struck out just 81 times, drawing 85 walks. In fact, his 65 HBP almost surpass that paltry strikeout total. To put it mildly, it’s insane.

If you wanted to throw water on this fire, September’s production for Astudillo wasn’t going to help you. Although MLB rosters expand and the competition may decrease a bit, Willians made his MLB debut and posted an .887 OPS across 97 plate appearances for the Twins. He struck out just three times, walking twice, and notching eight extra-base hits (three homers). His swinging strike rate was just 4.7% and the 91.7% contact rating was exceptional. Across 458 hitters with at least 90 plate appearances last season, Astudillo’s swinging strike rate was 10^th best, and his contact rate stood alone at the top.

Projected for 385 plate appearances in 2019, ZiPS has Astudillo coming in with a .280/.307/.459 slash line. It’s hard to know how much run the Venezuelan will get off the bench with other utility options on the roster, but there’s going to be opportunity. What’s certain is that Astudillo has made believers of many throughout Twins Territory, and it appears he has the respect and admiration of his peers within the clubhouse as well.

Oftentimes we aren’t given the answer as to whether a September promotion is substantiated from a fringe player. In this scenario, we’re going to find out just how real the production was, and for Minnesota’s sake, how much a man nicknamed “The Turtle” can be a difference maker in the early going.

Sano Turning an Important Corner

Miguel Sano enters the 2019 Major League Baseball season as one half of the Minnesota Twins largest question mark. The front office has tied the upcoming schedule to the production of both Sano and Byron Buxton. Needing to rebound from his worst year as a professional, it seems that an important development has taken place for the former top prospect. Commitment and accountability appear evident in a new report, and that’s always been the biggest question for the Dominican Native.

Recently the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal penned a piece on possible extension candidates for the Twins. Within the writing he noted that the Minnesota third basemen has lost 25 pounds, which would comfortably put him in the 265-275 range. At 6’4” he’s still a very large human being, but there’s no denying that it’s a more doable number and a development that should only relieve pressure on the titanium rod inserted into his leg. For this writer though, it’s never been about the weight.

Despite being signed as a shortstop, Sano bulked up and moved off the position quickly. He only continued to grow and add size as he progressed through the minors, and while much of that was muscle mass, the weight became an issue in recent years. Instructed by the Twins to take conditioning more seriously, in hopes of seeing a bump in production and renewed focus from the player, Sano failed to take the direction as anything more than advice. Despite being looked at as a key cornerstone, and knowing the investment made in him, the 25-year-old simply ignored his employer’s demands. With a trip back to Single-A and a .679 OPS in his rear-view mirror, the former All Star appears he’s finally had enough.

Obviously, there are physical limitations to what is realistically acceptable for a high-performing athlete to adhere to, but from purely a weight standpoint I could care less. What has always seemed most important from Sano is that he buy into the vision the organization has for him and believe in their process to get the most out of himself. After posting a .916 OPS in his rookie season, the .859 OPS during his All-Star campaign left room for improvement. Strikeouts are always going to be a part of a power hitters’ profile, but a consistent command of the strike zone and the ability to punish misses needs to be a key focus. Turning 26 in 2019, staving off a shift across the diamond or to a designated hitter role is also an integral piece of the puzzle.

So where does this all leave us in the year ahead? If process drives results, the fact that Miguel has committed to a conditioning program (and more importantly his employer’s wishes), suggests he’s on board with believing there’s more in the tank. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections have him slated for just a .752 OPS. Obviously that number doesn’t account for his injury or the ramifications of his 2018 output. Using that as a baseline however, I’d like to bet on the over.

At his best, Sano is a monster in the batter’s box. He punished baseballs with a hard-hit rate north of 44%. Fly balls leave the yard over a quarter of the time, and he chases out of the zone less than 25% while also missing under 15% of the time. That profile doesn’t work for everyone, but a player having the strength and slugging ability that this one does, it’s a perfect storm of relevancy.

On top of his own decisions this winter, Miguel may find accountability in the form of a clubhouse confidant for 2019. 38-year-old countryman Nelson Cruz joins the Twins fold for the year ahead. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly debut until he was 28 years old. With more than enough wisdom to his credit, imparting learned principles on Sano could be a valuable development that holds weight well beyond whatever time they spend competing together.

As a new manager, Rocco Baldelli’s greatest accomplishment in the year ahead is going to be how well he can connect with and what he can generate out of his expected stars. Right now, it seems like the one playing the infield is catching up to the one in the outfield as far as desire is concerned, and that’s more than half of the battle.

Is the Twins Narrative Really “Punting on 2019?”

For weeks we’ve seen news outlets and beat writers suggest that the Twins have instructed them the focus for 2019 has been in seeing what Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano bring to the table. In a sport with a 25-man roster, the front office has trotted out a narrative that suggests the year ahead rests solely on the shoulders of a once promising duo. The reality in all of this is that same suggestion could be turned in to Minnesota punting on the season ahead, and the constructs of that suggestion remain relatively similar.

When 2018 ended the Minnesota Twins were done paying Joe Mauer $23 million a season for a contract that he easily earned. Regardless of whether or not he retired, the organization had no substantial money committed anywhere for either the year ahead or those to come. Given that situation, the hope was that the front office would find a way to allocate dollars and acquire talent for the road ahead. New faces have been brought in, but the reality is that the finished product looks like a half-hearted job.

Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training this week, a point in which the offseason was generally seen as concluded. Last season we watched as Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison joined the club after that point, and in 2019, the top three free agents are still homeless when it comes to a team for the year ahead. Although a significant amount of deals have been done, there’re impactful moves for plenty of organizations still to take place.

In Minnesota, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine essentially have sat on their hands and suggested they’re good with “just enough.”

Right now most projection systems have the 2019 Twins tabbed for somewhere in the mid-80s as a win total. With Cleveland coming in about 10 games higher than that, the division certainly will go through the Indians once again. Given the steps back Terry Francona’s team has taken on paper however, it’s beyond disheartening to see Minnesota giving up on an attempt to make things interesting.

There’s currently a $30 million deficit between year-over-year spending. Sure this market will never compete with the biggest in baseball, but the $128 million bill for the 2018 squad was hardly breaking the bank for anyone connected to the Pohlad’s. It was a reach to call it league average, and the revenues generated were still enormous. Given the payroll constraints for the current season and the next one, Falvey and Levine could legitimately pay any free agent $30 million on a one-year deal, or $60 million over two to join the Twins today.

You’ll hear the retort that players have to want to come to the Twins, but it’s a suggestion that should fall on deaf ears. That premise operates under the guise that Minnesota is being turned down despite being the highest bidder. Last offseason Yu Darvish was the apple of the front office’s eye, and they lost out after failing to match the years in Chicago. Obviously that’s a bullet dodged today, but Minnesota got beat by themselves as opposed to an offer that genuinely allowed the player to weigh a possibility. Yasmani Grandal signed with the Brewers this winter on an extremely friendly deal, and while the Twins were “interested” and made an offer, things never went anywhere.

So many things went wrong in Minnesota a season ago, and chief among them were the regression of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. The club still ended up winning 78 games in an equally bad AL Central and is operating as if that’s the expectation for the year ahead. If Minnesota’s front office sees this team as a 75 game winner, then there’s no amount of free agent firepower that will close the gap. As an 80 win team banking on a rebound by former top prospects though, choosing to balk at more talent is irresponsible.

Adalberto Mejia may start in the bullpen. Fernando Romero may transition to a reliever. Matt Magill could be the 25^th man, and Rocco Baldelli could be served with a pitching staff filled with question marks in the season ahead. Or, those sitting atop the org chart at 1 Twins Way could throw their remaining cash at Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez or some other assets that sets things on a better foot, and we could let the chips fall where they may.

If and when this season goes sideways, the front office can point back to suggesting they were waiting on Buxton and Sano. In reality, everyone is starting with a clean slate, and no one did less to capitalize on theirs than those in charge of righting the ship at Target Field.