Big Bert and the Hard Road Ahead

It’s long been a thing in baseball that struggling or failed starting pitchers could simply head out to the bullpen and find another path to success. From the short burst outings, to avoiding multiple lineup turns, and even decreasing the total pitch mitch, it’s a whole different recipe beyond the outfield wall. Adalberto Mejia was thrust into this role for 2019, but it doesn’t appear to be going as smoothly as Minnesota may have hoped.

Let me start out by saying that we’re still dealing with a small sample size. Only 27 games have been played, and with the Twins housed in the Midwest, weather has been the enemy more often than it hasn’t. There’s reason to believe that the Dominican native could settle in as the weather warms up, but the flip side of that argument is in the benefit provided to the hitter and batted baseball in those same circumstances. While not dismissing and of these realities, looking at the generated inputs is a must.

Prior to 2019 Mejia had operated solely as a starter for Minnesota. With a full rotation for Rocco Baldelli’s squad, the out of options lefty got moved to the bullpen. There was never any indication that this was a more logical path to success as it was a necessity to get all the pieces on the 25-man roster to coexist. Now that we have some actionable data to work with, we can start to make some comments regarding how the transition is working out.

Through 11.1 IP Mejia owns an ugly 8.74 ERA having given up earned runs in four of his 11 outings. On three of those occasions, the damage has been in the form of a crooked number. As expected, the velocity and strikeout rates have spiked a bit in short bursts, but the greatest problem has been a complete lack of command. He’s sporting a 7.1 BB/9 and an 11/9 K/BB ratio. Adding in the 8.7 H/9 and a HR/9 rate nearing 2.0 only helps to complete a recipe for disaster.

Typically, the thought process of moving a starter to relief would be in the hope that a smaller repertoire and enhanced velocity would provide a two-headed approach towards a more effective arm. Mejia has jumped his velocity, but only minimally. Averaging 93.8 mph he’s up one mph on his number from 2018, but there’s an argument to be made that more is in the tank once the weather warms up. Maximizing effectiveness in his offerings though, the pitch mix is far from specialized.

Utilizing the same repertoire as when he was starting, Mejia throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, slider, and has lightly mixed in a curveball. The four main offerings are all utilized at a relatively high clip, and the greatest change this season has been in muting the traditional fastball while turning to the changeup more often. The lack of specialization, however, is indicative of a guy without a true out pitch. There isn’t enough velocity on the fastball to make it a plus pitch, and just a 9% whiff rate doesn’t scream that any other offering is missing bats either.

If you could construct Mejia in the model that Minnesota would like to see, it’d be a lefty that is able to generate power from his size into his fastball. Pairing that one pitch with an off-speed slider or changeup would allow him to effectively keep opponents off balance. Just 2.8% of Adalberto’s fastballs have been whiffed on, with sliders generating a 3.7% whiff rate. That’s far too much contact allowed from a relief pitcher often tasked with keeping opportunities at bay. Add in that you’re giving out free passes at an alarming clip, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

At this point the Twins are getting closer to a point in which they’ll need to decide. It’s unfortunate to lose out on starting pitching talent, and there’s reason to believe that Mejia could bolster the back of a rotation. At almost 26 though, we’re getting to the point that there needs to be more of a plan than just reliance on stuff. He can’t go down without passing through waivers, so unless a flip-flop is being made with Martin Perez in the starting five now, continuing to employ him in the bullpen looks like a losing proposition.

As good as Taylor Rogers is, having him be your sole lefty in relief is probably not a path you’d choose to go down. Jake Reed deserves a shot in Minnesota but is of the wrong-handedness for this discussion. Right now, that leaves one of Andrew Vasquez or Gabriel Moya. Both of those guys could certainly take their lumps but investing in them as long-term relief solutions seems to be a better idea than fitting this square peg in a round hole.

We can wait another couple of weeks to see if warmth is able to correct any of Adalberto Mejia’s situation, but right now it looks to be larger than something the mercury can correct.

Fixing The Mound For Minnesota

We're well past the halfway point in the 2017 Major League Baseball season. With the Minnesota Twins now looking at both the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians above them in the AL Central, growth is more the focus than the playoffs the rest of the way. Once again this season, pitching has been a problem for the Twins, and 2018 can be a tide turning moment.

For the past handful of years, the Twins have found themselves in a circular state of rebuild. There's been bumps in the road however as management has made missteps in acquiring free agents, and development on the mound hasn't been what you'd have hoped. In 2018, the Twins will be looking at a division full of opportunity, and a lineup ready for a pitching staff to support. Through moves the rest of the way, and over the winter, they can blaze a new trail in the year ahead.

By the end of the week, Paul Molitor's club will have run out 12 different starting pitchers in 2017. That's a high number for the season in total, and being it's only July, something the club will want to avoid a year from now. Looking for five guys to round out a playoff contender in 2018, here's who the Twins should be considering:

Jose Berrios

Start first and foremost with the internal options. Berrios has come into his own in 2017, and while he hasn't been consistently lights out, he's shown the ability in short bursts. Through 14 starts, Berrios has tallied a 3.76 ERA and an 8.4 K/9 to pair with a 2.7 BB/9. You'd still like to see a heightened level of command, but he's been much more good than bad.

Adalberto Mejia

Arguably one the greatest return in a trade for Minnesota in quite some time, Mejia has looked the part of a rotation fixture. He doesn't have a high ceiling, but at the back of the group, you could do a whole lote worse. Through 15 starts he owns a 4.10 ERA and has compiled a 7.6 K/9 to go with a 4.1 BB/9. Pitch economy is something he's struggled with this season, and he'll need to limit high counts and walks to take the next step forward. Still just 24, there's plenty of reason to believe he's capable.

High-Level Free Agent

For all of the hand-wringing the past few seasons in regards to not spending or acquiring talent, 2018 represents Minnesota's first true opportunity to be open for criticism. With a lineup ready to take the next step, and plenty of money coming off the books, there's zero reason not to spend and supplement from outside. Adding a big name hurler isn't going to come cheap, but there's a few sensible options out there. Thad Levine has familiarity going for him with Yu Darvish, and while 2017 hasn't been great for Jake Arrieta, the Cubs pitcher could be a good option as well.

Mid-Level Free Agent

If the Twins don't trade Ervin Santana, and I'd be in favor of them doing so barring a fair return, then they'll need another similar type of arm. Santana has flashed some really good stretches, and putting someone of similar ability in front of the Twins defense could produce consistent results as well. Names among this group probably include Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Lance Lynn, Tyler Chatwood, or Alex Cobb

A Fight For The Fifth

Rounding out the group, Minnesota could call upon their depth. Trevor May is probably the most talented among the group, but remains a question mark in coming back from Tommy John surgery. Top prospects like Stephen Gonsalves and Fernado Romero will factor in here, and getting them exposure in 2017 seems like a good plan of action. A holdover like Kyle Gibson could make sense if the Twins bring him back as well.

Entering the 2018 slate, it remains apparent that the biggest detriment to Minnesota taking the next step is on the mound. The core for a solid team is there, and the division presents opportunity. Adding from the outside and committing to go for it seems like the logical path to travel. Now let's hope something similar takes place.

Twins Starting Depth To Be Tested

After being recalled following a two-start stint at Triple-A, Kyle Gibson was back in the Twins rotation. Against the Orioles on May 22, Gibson surrendered six earned runs on seven hits while walking four and striking out five. He got the win (pitcher wins are stupid), but there was a clear picture of a pitcher in over his head. For now, he'll remain in the rotation, but during the game, it was worth wondering what would happen next for Minnesota?

In an ideal world, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge are all ready to compete at a significant level. That reality isn't one we're living in though. All three are at Double-A, and none are ready to make the jump to Triple-A or the big leagues any time soon. There's still a long term gameplan there, but expecting them to help Minnesota before late summer at the earliest is a fool's errand.

That leads us to upstate New York, and deciding what is available in Rochester. We have seen Nick Tepesch once this season. He lasted just 1.2 IP and while six of the seven runs he surrendered were unearned, it was an uninspiring performance unlikely to challenge big league hitters. If Kyle Gibson isn't the guy, and it's beginning to look like he may need more time figuring it out on the farm, then who is?

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would likely be tasked with deciding between Aaron Slegers, David Hurlbut, and Jason Wheeler at Rochester. None of them are 40 man players, and of the trio, Slegers is arguably pitching the best this season. While Wheeler has been in big spots previously, and pitched well in 2016, he hasn't gotten off to a great start this season.

Slegers was a 5th round pick back in 2013 out of the University of Indiana. He's now 24 years old, and a relative non-prospect. What he's done however, is put forth a consistent track record at every stop through the Minnesota farm system. His professional ERA stands at 3.57 across 494.2 IP. In 2017, he's totaled a 4.25 ERA over 42.1 IP and rarely issues walks (1.9 BB/9). He's never going to be a high velocity guy, and his career 6.5 K/9 is probably lofty at the next level. While the peripherals aren't flashy, there's reason to believe he's capable.

Thus far, the Twins have used seven starters, and there's a strong likelihood that number trends towards 10 by the time the dust settles. There's nothing more coveted in the game of baseball than starting pitcher, and even moreso, that of the quality variety. It's not fair to assume that every arm called up to the big league rotation is going to be an impact prospect, but if there's a place the Twins organization is starved, it's there.

At multiple points this season, the question as to whether or not Minnesota should deal Ervin Santana has come up. If there's something that highlights the necessity, it could be this. Should the Twins be presented with an offer that returns a solid pitching prospect or two, close to big league ready, there's a lot of appeal there. Right now, this team is much more exciting than many would have imagined, but there's no staying power in the starting pitching.

Over the winter, it makes a lot of sense for the Twins to supplement their offensive youth with an impact starter. There's a few names out there that make sense, and the club has money to spend. If the organization can roll out a rotation that includes a big name or two, along with Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia being internal options, they'll be well positioned a year from now.

It may have to be Aaron Slegers in the short term, and if Kyle Gibson continues to struggle, there's no reason not to give him a shot. Pinning your hopes to that level of prospect for the future though, doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins have some top prospect arms in the system, but they'll need a safety net regardless, and having more impact arms is never going to be a bad thing.

Puzzling Pitching, and Disturbing Designating

The Minnesota Twins all but announced their 25 man Opening Day roster. In doing so, they dropped a couple of bombs. First, they would be going with 13 pitchers, and then secondly, they'd send ByungHo Park to Rochester despite no real good reason to do so. As the dust settled from the fallout, we're sitting here left to scratch out heads.

First and foremost, here's the Twins Opening Day roster:

Starters: Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Hughes, Mejia
Relievers: Kintzler, Pressly, Belisle, Breslow, Tonkin, Duffey, Rogers, Haley
Lineup: Castro (C), Mauer (1B), Dozier, (2B), Sano (3B), Polanco (SS), Rosario (LF), Buxton (CF), Kepler (RF), Grossman (DH)
Bench: Santana, Gimenez, Escobar

So, what to make of this? Let's start on the mound. Adalberto Mejia, the Twins return for Eduardo Nunez, cracks the Opening Day rotation. There's nothing wrong with this, and he's more than deserving. I wrote about how he could be a dark horse candidate even prior to Trevor May's injury. He had a strong spring, provides a second lefty, and while his ceiling isn't that high, he should be more than a serviceable back end starter.

What happened with Mejia however, allowed the Twins to balk on making a decision between him and Duffey. Instead of picking one for the 5th starter, the club then doubled down and sent Duffey to the pen. I really like him as a fit there, but putting him in the group to make a total of eight pitchers is nonsensical. There's no good reason to hang onto Michael Tonkin in this scenario, and if Duffey wasn't being stretched out to stay as a starter, then whittling the pen and using a higher value arm in Duffey makes sense.

Minnesota's bullpen could be among the worst in the big leagues this year. They did nothing to significantly improve it, and none of the high ceiling arms (save for Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly) are a part of it. Duffey can move the water mark, but adding him to a glut of mediocrity is silly.

Then we get to the position players...

Immediately, the most egregious problem is that the roster has no ByungHo Park on it. While it could be argued that Kennys Vargas is a better fit, he is also void of inclusion, likely to start the year on the disabled list. The Twins DFA'd Park prior to spring training, he went out and made it look silly, and then was still left out in the cold.

By leaving Park in Rochester, the Minnesota Twins will DH Robbie Grossman to start the year. That's a fine situation, especially given his on base prowess. What Grossman doesn't bring to the plate is much power. He hit 11 homers (a career high) a season ago, and his .828 OPS was over .100 points higher than his career water mark. On top of not having Park's power in the lineup, they also don't have his bat off of the bench.

Worse than not having Park getting regular at bats after showing a much improved process this spring, is what Paul Molitor will have available to him off the bench. Only three players are going to be in reserve, with one of them being backup catcher Chris Gimenez. Eduardo Escobar is limited to a utility infield role, while Danny Santana can play everywhere, but is a defensive liability in all those spots as well.

Although American League teams definitely don't need the bench that a National League team does, the Twins bench has three players with an average OPS of .609. Without looking, that has to be among the worst in the big leagues. There's no value coming into a pinch hit situation, and that could leave the skipper more hamstrung than you'd want him to be.

At the end of the day, the Twins are going to note they wanted eight pitchers. They have a bullpen comprised of guys that don't bring a bunch of value, and they sapped their offensive value through this construction. It doesn't look great on paper, and it's hard to see it being the best scenario. That being said, we'll get to see how it plays out in very short order.

The Dark Horse For The 5th Spot

Coming into spring training, the Minnesota Twins had no less than three of the five starting rotation spots claimed. Ervin Santana was a lock, Kyle Gibson wasn't going anywhere, and Phil Hughes was expected to be healthy enough to claim his role. With two openings left, Hector Santiago was presumably given another one, That left just one spot and a lot of competition for the Twins down in Fort Myers.

My expectation from the onset is that Trevor May would be given every opportunity to move back into the starting rotation. Thus far, that looks to be the plan of action that Minnesota has employed as well. May has started games as opposed to coming in second, and has been included among the group of five previously mentioned. However, as he transitions his way back from the bullpen, there could continue to be some growing pains.

As a starter, May's velocity will likely dip some from where he was at a year ago, and his strikeout numbers shouldn't be nearly as high. He looked like a natural fit in the role initially, and in time, the rotation seems like the best fit. What's up for debate is whether or not Opening Day represents that correct timing.

If it's not Trevor May, there's more than a handful of possible candidates. It would be great if Jose Berrios was dominant this spring and ran away with the role, but it appears his command is still coming into form. Veteran Ryan Vogelsong was brought in as a likely bridge guy, and there's not much reason to block prospects by sending him to Rochester. Could Rule 5 pick Justin Haley get some run in the rotation? Even former Texas Rangers starter Nick Tepesch figures to make things interesting. Of all the possible outcomes though, it may be the guy that Minnesota nabbed for Eduardo Nunez from the San Francisco Giants.

Enter Adalberto Mejia.

Mejia was Baseball Prospectus' 86th prospect prior to the 2015 season. He has top 100 prospect notoriety from a couple of other outlets as well. The 6'3" hurler would give the Twins flexibility with a second lefty in the rotation, and he should be viewed as having a relatively safe floor. Although he doesn't necessarily possess the ceiling of prospects like Jose Berrios, Stephen Gonsalves, or even Fernando Romero, as a 5th starter, there's reason to be excited.

In 2016, Mejia posted a 3.00 ERA between Double and Triple-A in the Giants and Twins organizations. He owned a respectable 8.6 K/9 while issuing just 2.0 free passes per nine innings. For the most part, Mejia has kept the ball in the yard, and his 132 innings a season ago represent a sizeable workload.

With just over two innings of big league experience under his belt, you can't draw anything from Mejia's exposure with Minnesota a season ago. His fastball sits low 90's while he also utilizes a four pitch mix including a slider, curve, and chanegup. There's no reason to think that Mejia would be incredibly out of his element when called upon to pitch at the highest level.

Thus far this spring, and it's early, Mejia has shown well. He's done nothing to set himself back, and he's taken advantage of the opportunities presented to him. It's going to take some combination of May faltering to bump Mejia up the ladder, but it's far from being out of the question. If it's Mejia that the Twins give the ball to when the 5th turn comes around, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

Where Does The Twins Pitching Come From?

A year after having the worst starting pitching staff in the big leagues, the Minnesota Twins will be looking to turn a significant corner in 2017. Paul Molitor has a pretty realistic opportunity to bounce back greatly in the wins column, but it's only going to happen if he can get productive outings from his starters.

While the Twins haven't had a true ace since the days of Francisco Liriano or Johan Santana, there are plenty of teams the operate with a good group rather than a top heavy individual. The Twins will be taking the latter path this year as they fill out their rotation, but the question becomes exactly who rounds it out.

Going into the year, I count at least 10 pitchers that Minnesota could task with starting a game. After using 11 different starters last season, I opined that the Twins would run out no more than 8 in 2017. Counting Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson as rotation locks, the club will need to make decisions on the final two spots. That brings us to the candidates and the order of their likeliness:

Phil Hughes

In Hughes, the Twins have an odd scenario. He's absolutely a lock if he's healthy, but coming back from Thoracic Outlet surgery doesn't guarantee that. Guys have bounced back differently, and he could be a shell of himself, or not pitch again at all. Hughes has faded every year since finishing 7th in the Cy Young voting during his first year with the Twins. If he does come back, hoping he lands somewhere just north of his 3.90 ERA across 2014-15 would make Minnesota ecstatic.

Trevor May

I'm much more skeptical than some on whether or not May finds success as a starter. Working as a reliever, he saw a nice spike in both his velocity and strikeout rates. Unfortunately, his back flared up and is likely tied to usage concerns. He hasn't consistently started since his debut season in 2014, and the results weren't good. Now more developed as a professional, the Twins will have to hope he can give them the strikeouts, with better command, and stay healthy.

Jose Berrios

After doing himself few favors last season, Berrios is going to be in a scenario in which he has to earn his spot during Spring Training. If Hughes isn't ready from the get go, I'd bet Berrios is the next man up. Command was the issue during Jose's rookie season, and his flat plane fastball got hit over the fence far too often (12 HR in 58.1 IP). The Twins will need to rely upon the year providing valuable experience, and the dominating stuff from Triple-A playing up a bit more at the highest level.

Adalberto Mejia

Acquired in exchange for Eduardo Nunez last season, Mejia was a nice get for the Twins system. He doesn't have flashy stuff, but should be capable of a back end spot in the rotation. In four starts for Triple-A Rochester, he totaled a 3.76 ERA to go with an 8.5 K/9. At the big league level he surrendered two earned runs across just 2.1 IP as a reliever. Mejia should get a serious look in Spring Training, and he's maybe the safer option if Minnesota wants to make absolutely sure that Berrios is ready.

Stephen Gonsalves

Now we get to the bit of the stretch portion for Opening Day rotation options. Gonsalves is the Twins top pitching prospect by most accounts, and he should be expected to be a solid contributor. However, he's yet to pitch above Double-A. While Gonsalves owned a 2.06 ERA last year, his 10.0 K/9 was watered down a bit by a 3.7 BB/9. He has some command issues to work through, and will need to rely on pitching at the higher levels as opposed to just throwing. I'd expect him to make his MLB debut this season, but not out of the gate.

Tyler Duffey

After starting 36 games for the Twins over his first two big league seasons, it's time Duffey heads to the bullpen. A college closer at Rice, Minnesota went the most sensible route in attempting to convert him to a starter first. Now 26 and without a dominant trio of offerings, he can be a very good two pitch reliever. His curveball is filthy when it's on, and he'll be more than capable of getting big leaguers out. Send him to the pen, decrease the homers (25 in 25 starts during 2016) and enjoy the uptick in velocity and strikeouts.

Justin Haley

Included here because Haley has worked as a starter for the entirety of his minor league career, and likely is slotted there in the Twins future, he should only see pen time this season. Haley did pitch at Triple-A during 2016 and fared well posting a 3.59 ERA. He has been categorized as among the safest Rule 5 picks, and many have said he's major league ready to back-end a rotation. Given what's ahead of him though, I'd welcome his opportunities in 2017 to come in a long relief role.

Nunez Makes Antony Look Good

It's July 2016 and there's a significant contingent of people that are willing to describe Eduardo Nunez first and foremost as an All Star. They aren't wrong, but it's also far from indicative as to what kind of baseball player he is. Somehow though, in his first move as Interim General Manager of the Minnesota Twins, Rob Antony turned that phrase (and Nunez), into a top 100 prospect prior to the August 1 trade deadline.

The San Francisco Giants were looking for a utility player that could fill in at third base while Matt Duffy is coming back from an injury. Passing up on the likes of Steve Pearce (who has played just 12 MLB games at the hot corner) the Giants landed on Nunez. By definition, they landed an All Star, but it's hard not to be excited about how the Twins orchestrated this maneuver.

An All Star for no other reason than the mandatory Major League Baseball rule that every team have a representative at the mid-summer classic, Nunez has been worth just 1.6 fWAR on the season. He's hit well above his career average, but his line since June 1st equates to a paltry .680 OPS. Despite an incredibly strong start, Nunez has regressed back towards his career average, and really, he's sunk below even that.

Defensively, the hope is that Nunez can fill in for the Giants while they nurse guys back from injury, and then turn into a super utility role. As a regular, he's far from reliable. Nunez doesn't have a single infield position in which he hasn't tallied a negative defensive runs saved mark over his career. His defense in fact, is simply why he's been cast as little more than a bench bat and utility player for the bulk of his time in the majors.

At 29 years old, and with his best moments likely behind him, Nunez was never going to be a part of the Twins future. His value to the club had run it's course, and the best thing to do was clear way for more effective additions to the 25 man roster. The thought was opening up a spot for a player such as Jorge Polanco, no matter what the return, makes moving Nunez a win.

Rob Antony did better than that though.

In a situation where he could have been happy with a warm body or a bag of balls, Antony turned Nunez into a top 100 prospect. Adalberto Mejia was recently ranked as the 91st best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. He was graded out as the Giants 7th best prospect by MLB Pipeline, and he's supposedly got a three pitch mix that should equate into a back end of the rotation starter. There's potential that he reaches the big leagues this year, and even if he doesn't expecting Mejia to compete for a 2017 rotation spot seems more than plausible.

I had long suggested that Nunez belonged as a utility player on a winning team. He was a luxury that the Twins didn't need, nor did they have room for. Destined for at least 90 losses, a mediocre utility player that parlayed a good couple of months into an All Star appearance is not a necessity. With future pieces being held back, removing Nunez from the 25 man was an absolute must.

Sometimes the benefit of a trade is simply clearing space, and Minnesota could've been happy accomplishing just that in dealing their helmet-losing utility man. Instead, allowing Nunez to paint himself into a top 100 prospect with some project ability, this looks about as good as it can get for Antony and the Twins.

Now the question becomes, who's next. Fernando Abad and Brandon Kintzler both fit similar molds to Nunez. Neither are future pieces, and there's relief arms ready. Moving them to open the roster up needs to be a priority, but if Antony can spin anymore value there, well then it wouldn't be the first time right?