Larnach Leading Rookie for Twins

 

Alex Kirilloff was the Twins first round draft pick in 2016. When the new front office took over, they went with Royce Lewis the next year, and then followed up with Trevor Larnach. Since that point I’ve contended the separation between Kirilloff and Larnach shouldn’t have been presumed to be much. We’re now seeing that take shape.

 

Kirilloff is playing through an injury, and while he’s having himself a nice debut, I don’t think it’s quite to the level he’ll reach in short order. That’s given way for Larnach to shine though, and he’s done exactly that. Trevor was thrust into a Major League role given the Twins outfield health issues. Having played just three games at Triple-A, and only 43 at Double-A two years ago, a premature call-up is probably fair to suggest.

 

Despite taking some time to acclimate, he’s begun to settle in. Now with 31 games under his belt, the former Oregon State Beaver owns a .263/.386/.421 slash line. The .807 OPS isn’t all that noteworthy, but the 131 OPS+ plays, and the number that jumps off the page is the .386 OBP backed by a strong 33/14 K/BB.

 

Larnach hasn’t yet ran into much power. He has just nine extra base hits, of which only three have left the yard. That isn’t to suggest the process isn’t sound, though. Drafted with notes of high exit velocities, that has played out at the highest level. Larnach owns a 37.1% hard hit rate and a 14.5% barrel rate. His xSLG sits 40 points higher at .466 and he owns a max exit velo of 116 mph.

 

I don’t think you’ll find anyone jumping to suggest that Larnach is otherworldly on either of the corners, but it’s more than apparent he can stick. With the bat profile he has, a traditional corner outfielder with pop is exactly what he’s trending towards. This isn’t a finished product by any means, but I think the Twins have to be thrilled with the early returns. Recently at Fangraphs, Paul Sporer also took a look into where Larnach could go from here.

 

Both Larnach and Kirilloff should be mainstays in the Minnesota lineup for years to come. We have seen both of them bat in the heart of the order this year, and while that’s more reflective of circumstance, they’ve held their own plenty. In lieu of so many injuries having piled up on the Twins this season, it’s been nice to see opportunity parlayed into production for a guy like Larnach.

 

Not every prospect comes up and flourishes. The Seattle Mariners just had to demote top prospect Jarred Kelenic after a terrible start. Baseball is hard, and even moreso when the runway for readiness hasn’t been there in a traditional sense. Give it to Larnach for battling that adversity and still producing at the level he is.

 

While Kirilloff is still my pick to be the better player with a more likely shot to win a batting title, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Larnach round out into a more complete specimen with an opportunity to bang 40 homers in a single season. It’s been a good start, and this is just the beginning.

Alex Kirilloff Is Headed Towards an Unfortunate Conclusion

 

May 3^rd was the last game Alex Kirilloff played for the Minnesota Twins prior to hitting the injured list with a wrist issue. He’s now been back for 16 games, but it’s clear this isn’t the same player. Something of an inevitable outcome seems to be looming.

 

Following his placement on the shelf, Minnesota sent Kirilloff to see a hand specialist and he was given a cortisone shot. He has been able to play through the injury without and notation of pain publicly. That said, it’s fair to take a look at the results and see that this simply isn’t the same player.

 

When the Twins were scuffling through injuries and looking to crawl back towards contention in 2021, it made sense for them to push their top hitting prospect to be back on the field. These at bats are vital for his development, and as a player that will be relied upon heavily in 2022, big strides this year are monumental. At some point though, the sagging results become detrimental in terms of confidence and expected outcomes.

 

Let’s look at the numbers. On May 3 Kirilloff was slashing .214/.227/.571 with a 56.7% hard hit rate and a 26.7% barrel rate. His average exit velocity on batted ball events was a strong 96.5 mph. Fast forward to today and he’s got 68 plate appearances since returning to the lineup. The slash line includes a better average and OBP at .254/.309, but the .302 slugging is the real problem. Kirilloff has just three extra-base hits, all doubles, and his hard hit rate has fallen to 26.1%. The barrel rate is way down to just 6.5% and his average exit velocity has dropped to 90.1 mph.

 

As is the case with wrist injuries, and as we’ve heard Justin Morneau talk about on recent Twins broadcasts, there’s just no way to generate power without that hand strength. Nelson Cruz dealt with a tendon issue in 2019. It eventually ruptured and that outcome was a positive in terms of future ability. While Kirilloff’s situation is not the same, the current results lag because of the present condition.

 

I am not a doctor and have no idea what the timetable for healing from surgery looks like. Maybe Minnesota is having him play because the offseason is going to give enough runway for a healthy 2022 regardless. At some point though, you have to question whether the outcomes aren’t providing a more damaging view of the current process. The Twins aren’t going anywhere in 2021, and it’s evident that this version of Alex Kirilloff isn’t the one that anyone involved wants to see either.

 

Only the player knows what the actual pain threshold looks and feels like at this point, but you don’t need to dive to deep beyond the box score to see that this isn’t what anybody signed up for.

Kirilloff Injury Affords Opportunity to Twins

 

Yesterday the Minnesota Twins had to scratch Alex Kirilloff from the starting lineup when it was discovered he was dealing with wrist discomfort. It sounds as if a looming IL stint is around the corner, and that’s disappointing news for Rocco Baldelli’s hottest hitter. What happens from here could set the tone for the rest of the way.

 

Miguel Sano has been on the Injured List for Minnesota as he dealt with a leg injury and was working on timing prior to an activation. Kirilloff had been playing first base but could’ve slid back in to left field where Jake Cave has done little more than take up space this season. Now without Kirilloff in the mix, the front office has a decision to make.

 

The immediate answer would seem to be a veteran placeholder such as Keon Broxton. He looked the part in Spring Training and has had big league success previously. Success is relative however when you’re talking about a guy with a .685 OPS across just north of 1,000 plate appearances. Broxton is a plus defender and does have some pop in his bat, but he’s hardly a sustainable bet to push the bar for a failing Twins team.

 

Much like Kirilloff before him, if Minnesota wants to respond with the opportunity to make an impact, it’s time for the training wheels to come off top prospect Trevor Larnach. Now 24, the 2018 1^st round pick is currently at Triple-A St. Paul. He only has two career games at that level, but the assumption should be that he would’ve spent considerable time there in 2020 had a season take place. The former Oregon State Beaver is a polished hitting prospect with an .850 career OPS in pro ball. He has an advanced approach at the plate and is hardly a strikeout machine despite being a power hitter.

 

Unlike Kirilloff, Larnach should be ticketed for a corner outfield spot. Whereas Alex is destined to play first base, and do it well, Larnach’s athleticism will keep him in the grass, and he should be able to provide average or better defense out there. Given the shortening length of Rocco Baldelli’s lineup at the big-league level, adding another bat like this that can start in the bottom half would give hope to a club floundering out of the gates.

 

It’s probably unfair to pin the expectations that were placed on Kirilloff directly to Larnach. That said, they’ve consistently ranked as eerily similar prospects to me, and I’d be far from shocked if the bat didn’t immediately translate for Trevor as well. Keon Broxton is a player in the same vein as Kyle Garlick or Jake Cave. They have utility but asking them to be a regular stretches their overall value. Putting Larnach into a spot where he can contribute at the highest level raises the overall water level, and who knows where things go from there.

 

He’d need a 40-man roster move, and this is probably sooner than the front office wanted to unleash him, but it’s time for Trevor Larnach to become a Major Leaguer.

The Twins Are Good, Right?

 

I have been a big proponent of retiring anything to do with the Bomba Squad moniker from 2019. Let seasons evolve on their own. The 2021 team was supposed to be good, they are on paper, but will it take shape?

 

We are not yet through the month of April and I keep harping on the runway left for the 2021 season. Minnesota has played just over 12% of their games, and they are chasing a White Sox team that is just 4.5 games clear of them right now. That’s all to outline the current positioning isn’t dire. The problem is that the production just hasn’t been there.

 

Rocco Baldelli has gotten less than nothing from his catching tandem, and the left field situation has been a mess. Expecting Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Nelson Cruz all to be good was a pretty solid bet, and that’s played out as expected. Miguel Sano is currently on the IL, and while the numbers haven’t yet worked in his favor, the process is more than working.

 

The point we’re quickly getting to is wondering when things click?

 

If there’s three chief areas of concern, it’s the two previously outlined and the bullpen. Alex Colome was always going to regress from his otherworldly 2020 numbers, but his career production suggested that a baseline was hardly something to scoff at. Instead, he’s been historically bad while being more hittable than at any point during his career. The middle relief looks inept and holding onto small deficits just hasn’t been doable.

 

Looking at the lineup, Baldelli can’t continue to get an empty lineup spot from multiple positions. Mitch Garver no longer punishes lefties or fastballs, and while Alex Kirilloff is just a few games in to his first promotion, he’s currently dealing with an 0-fer. Whether it’s a longer leash for Ryan Jeffers, who has also been bad, or a big game for Kirilloff, the Twins need things to break their way.

 

This hasn’t been the Bomba Squad for quite some time, and the lineup doesn’t need to launch balls into the seats for opportunity to win. Luis Arraez and Andrelton Simmons provide plenty of good contact-based opportunities, and it’s on Minnesota to start capitalizing with what’s in front of them. Despite having the second worst record in baseball, the run differential is only -9 and the pythag presents a better 9-11 story.

 

Maybe it’s been bad luck, but it’s time to start creating their own. If the expectation was for this team to be good coming into the year, 20 games shouldn’t change that. At some point though, results have to follow.

Kirilloff’s Confusing Decision

 

The Minnesota Twins decided that Alex Kirilloff was the best option for their Postseason elimination game, but following a lackluster spring, he wasn’t a fit for the Opening Day roster. Let the second guessing commence.

 

As Rocco Baldelli breaks camp with a 26-man roster top prospect Alex Kirilloff will not be on it. He won’t travel with the big-league club to Milwaukee, and the assumption would be that he’ll remain in St. Paul across town until sometime near May 1. This affords the Twins a business-first opportunity, but also gives them some different options in terms of roster flexibility.

 

It should’ve been assumed that Brent Rooker would crack the Opening Day club. He had a solid showing with Minnesota in 2020 and has more than held his own this spring. Kyle Garlick could force his way into the picture with a strong Spring Training and 40-man roster spot, as could non-roster invitee Keon Broxton. The decision also leaves the door open for another utility type, namely Willians Astudillo should Rocco want the three-catcher flexibility.

 

There’s really no problem with the Twins deciding to keep Kirilloff in the minors, but it’s certainly little more than a business first decision. Sure, he’s been beyond mediocre this spring. A .440 OPS through 31 at bats is nothing pretty, but the flip side is the reality of that sample size. He’s played in 12 games, generating a total of 33 plate appearances. Less then seven months ago he was the answer for Minnesota despite a grand total of zero plate appearances in games that tracked statistics.

Front Offices gonna front office. https://t.co/jqoP3mIb6k

— Coach Trev (@trevorplouffe) March 23, 2021

From a service time standpoint in the current CBA landscape, Kirilloff would afford the Twins an extra year of control if they keep him in the minors for a matter of weeks. The problem is that the CBA is set to expire following the 2020 season, and much has been made about the implications of service time and team control as a whole. In short, the entirety of the business-first side of this coin could become moot in less than 12 months.

 

There’s no guarantee that Minnesota is worse off without Kirilloff out of the gate that they are some platoon featuring Rooker, Garlick, or Luis Arraez. However, what happens in April still counts and the division is expected to be hotly contested by the Chicago White Sox. Dream on a scenario in which Minnesota finishes second by just a couple of games, or their Postseason seeding is impacted, and it’s worth wondering if they’d have decided to start on a different foot from the get-go.

 

Alex Kirilloff beginning the 2021 season in the minor leagues during a season in which he’d get actual at bats makes some sense. It makes much less in a year where he’ll see no game action until May, and then seemingly be determined ready by the big-league club. Here’s to hoping that whenever he debuts the mashing will commence, but the timing of questionable decision making here will be worth scrutinizing as the calendar flips forward.

2021 Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 2.0

The Minnesota Twins have played more than a handful of Spring Training games and Opening Day is less than a month away. Who will make up the 26-man roster in Milwaukee on April 1?

 

There’s been a couple of additions since roster projection 1.0 exactly one month ago, and spring performances may wind up influencing some of the roster decisions as well. It appears there will be fans in the stands no matter where you turn on Opening Day, so who will fans of the reigning AL Central division champions be seeing? Here’s the first revision:

 

Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker

Randy Dobnak gets bumped from the group as the addition of Shoemaker on a one-year deal worth $2 million all but cements his place as the final starter. The former Angels pitcher has been good when healthy, he’s just rarely remained that for significant stretches of time. Minnesota has solid starting depth, even if the ceiling is lowered behind Pineda. This should be a solid group.

 

Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe

I’m really uncertain what to do with this group. Only six spots seem like certainties, and despite Caleb Thielbar needing to be a seventh, he may miss the start of the season with an injury. Minnesota also seems likely to carry 14 pitchers given the workload differential in adding 102 games this season. That said, I have no idea how they get there. Shaun Anderson is on the 40-man roster already. Thorpe and Dobnak have looked good this spring, but both should remain stretched out to start. Ian Hamilton, Ian Gibault, and Brandon Waddell would all need a spot on the 40-man roster if they were to be included.

 

Catchers (2): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers

Removing Willians Astudillo here solely from the idea that the options elsewhere seem better suited for the roster. He’s not a true catcher and the top two should be able to split duties evenly.

Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez

No changes here and the only thing that could make some sense would be a true shortstop to spell Andrelton Simmons. Jorge Polanco will likely be asked to play that role at times rather than including someone like J.T. Riddle, who would need a 40-man spot should he make the club.

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker

Talk about a group brimming with options. Kirilloff should be the Opening Day left fielder. The team has suggested Arraez isn’t being groomed to play the outfield, and there’s no Triple-A action for a month. Jake Cave is the holdover fourth outfielder, but he’s a bit redundant as another left-handed bat. Keon Broxton is a non-roster guy that can truly play centerfield and he’s looked very good in the early going. Kyle Garlick is a right-handed hitter with a 40-man spot who’s also looked good, but he’s probably destined more for the corners. If you’re adding another bat, it probably needs to be Brent Rooker. He’s not a centerfielder, but he too is right-handed and looked the part before his injury in 2020.

Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz

No change here

2021 Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 1.0

 

With the Super Bowl now in the rearview mirror it is officially baseball season. This is the last week without the Minnesota Twins in action for the next eight months. Before the Spring Training action gets underway however, I’ll take a first stab at how Rocco Baldelli will utilize his 26 roster spots.

 

The Twins had a very strong offseason, and the front office did a great job once again allowing the market to play into their strategy. Key pieces were brought back, and new faces were added to the mix. Looking to go for a third straight AL Central division title, here is how I see the Twins breaking camp in Fort Myers as things stand now.

 

Starting Pitchers (5): Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Randy Dobnak

 

I think this is pretty set and don’t foresee anyone else threatening too much here. Minnesota could still bring someone in as a non-roster invitee, but Dobnak has earned the opportunity to have first crack. This is an area that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can explore an upgrade during the season, and that could come internally in the form of top prospects Jordan Balazovic or Jhoan Duran. I still like Lewis Thorpe as a dark horse to throw meaningful innings this year, but that remains to be seen.

 

Relief Pitchers (8): Taylor Rogers, Alex Colome, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, Cody Stashak, Devin Smeltzer

 

If there’s a spot with change coming this is probably it. The first seven names on this list seem pretty straightforward to me and should make for a solid group. Including Smeltzer means that none of the waiver claims crack the Opening Day roster and that seems relatively far-fetched. Ultimately Smeltzer plays as a long-man, and that could be upgraded with the addition of another relief free agent acquisition. Given the number of names still out there, it’s probably a good bet that this group remains in flux at the back end.

 

Catchers (3): Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers, Willians Astudillo

 

This season Minnesota may have the best catching tandem in baseball. A resurgence for Mitch Garver should be expected, and Jeffers emerged in a big way during the 2020 season. Both should expect to get a ton of playing time, and that lends the roster towards inclusion of Willians Astudillo. Tortuga is still more gimmick than anything to me, and he shouldn’t see time behind the plate, but Baldelli is afforded flexibility by having him in the big leagues.

 

Infielders (5): Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Luis Arraez

 

There shouldn’t be much surprise here as all of these guys are starters and going to get regular time. Don’t worry that Luis Arraez is now slated to come off the bench, he’ll still see north of 400 at bats this season. Travis Blankenhorn could be considered here, but I’d think Minnesota prefers Astudillo purely from a roster construction standpoint. Nick Gordon should be close to a now or never crossroads too, but I don’t see it happening on Opening Day.

 

Outfielders (4): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brent Rooker, Jake Cave

 

Much to the chagrin of Twins fans everywhere, I don’t think we see Alex Kirilloff out of the gate. Minnesota will likely play the service time game, while Cave and Rooker are more than capable in left field. I don’t think the uber-prospect stays down for long, but out of the gate this makes a good deal of sense.

 

Designated Hitter (1): Nelson Cruz

 

He’s back, that settles it.

2021 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

 

This will be my 6^th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.

 

The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.

 

Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:

 

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

Now, let’s get to it!

15. Akil Baddoo OF

Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.

14. Gilberto Celestino OF

Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.

13. Matt Wallner OF

The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.

12. Matt Canterino RHP

On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.

11. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.

10. Aaron Sabato 1B

I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS

Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.

8. Brent Rooker OF/1B

If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.

6. Ryan Jeffers C

Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.

2. Royce Lewis SS

Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.

1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.

Caution on Youth for Twins

 

Going into this offseason there’s expected to be a couple of certainties for the Minnesota Twins. One is that payroll will reflect lost revenue and take a step backwards, the other is that a return of an intact 2020 roster likely isn’t going to happen. Both of those things lean towards a youth movement, but how much can the roster support?

 

Regardless of it being a truncated 60 game sprint, the 2020 season provided Minnesota their second straight AL Central division title. Although they went winless in the Postseason yet again, it was their second straight trip, and third time in the past four years. This organization hasn’t finished lower than 2^nd in the division since 2016, and it’s during this window of competitiveness that capitalization must be executed upon.

 

At this point the two most likely avenues for a youth movement come at designated hitter and in left field. It’s far from a certainty that the Twins bring Nelson Cruz back. He’s been an integral part of their roster, but he’s also 40-years-old, worthy of a hefty paycheck, and time will eventually run its course. It probably is a certainty that Eddie Rosario isn’t back in left field, his arbitration number seems destined for a non-tender.

 

So, what do you do? The most generally accepted answer is that Brent Rooker could take over as the designated hitter with top prospect Alex Kirilloff parlaying his Postseason MLB debut into an Opening Day starter role. There’s a lot of talent in both of those bodies, but that reality is also asking a substantial amount.

 

Over two seasons with the Twins Nelson Cruz has launched 57 homers and posted an OPS of 1.020. In fact, the last time he finished a season with an OPS south of .800 was a decade ago as a 31-year-old. Brent Rooker has played in seven big league games, and his minor league OPS checked in at .861. I don’t think there’s any denying that Rooker’s bat is exciting, but it’s also much less disciplined than Cruz’s, and he’d be replacing someone with credentials worth of Hall of Fame consideration.

 

In the outfield things get a little bit easier. Rosario, while he has a cannon, plays left field, and has slipped defensively as the years have gone by. The Puerto Rican native has a general hollow slash line with a career OPS of just .788. He hasn’t been an excellent hitter since the .836 OPS in 2017, and even that was heavily carried by his slugging prowess. Kirilloff looks the part of a more advanced profile at the plate, but again, he’s stepping into expectations that will no doubt be through the roof.

 

I’m not one to believe that prospects need to force their way into opportunity consistently before they find it. I think sometimes there’s merit to allowing talent the opportunity to shine on its own. However, asking two prospects to fill the shoes of two key contributors on a team that’s once again aiming for 90+ wins and a Postseason berth is quite a tall task. Minnesota probably is better off signing a tested veteran with an expected floor to play at least one of those positions.

 

Maybe the answer doesn’t need to be a big spend on someone like Marcel Ozuna. Maybe asking Jake Cave to operate as the Opening Day left fielder isn’t aiming high enough. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle of those outcomes, but I’m not sure reality should allow it to be a youth overhaul without the expectation of growing pains.

The Twins Unlikely Byron Buxton Insurance

This offseason the Minnesota Twins needed to allocate some dollars into contingency plans. With Josh Donaldson having missed so much time, and Byron Buxton always an injury away, legitimate talent behind both is a must. For Buxton, that answer may be more exciting than initially anticipated.

When Rocco Baldelli was filling out his American League Wild Card Series roster in October, one of the biggest surprises in recent memory took place. Top prospect Alex Kirilloff not only made the roster, but he drew his Major League debut start in game 2. Kirilloff garnered rave reviews all summer from Minnesota’s alternate site, and so too did the other top Twins prospect, Royce Lewis.

There has been plenty written already wondering what happens with Jorge Polanco at shortstop, if a utility role makes sense, and if he sticks there long term. Offensively in 2020, the 2019 All-Star was a problem. He posted a career worst .658 OPS and lost all power at the dish. We now know that could’ve been related to his bulky ankle, and a strong improvement in the outs above average category means his may be taking steps forward defensively. Under contact until 2024 and just 27 years old, he’s not going anywhere any time soon. Maybe the position changes, but here to suggest maybe it doesn’t.

We now enter a scenario in which the 2017 first overall draft pick makes his debut in centerfield.

Last fall the Twins allowed Lewis to play centerfield in the Arizona Fall League solely for the purpose of allowing him the flexibility to generate more at bats. It’s a position he’s been suggested of potentially moving to, and there’s reason to believe he’s not necessarily a lock to stick at shortstop. Coming off such a weird year in 2020, the focus in 2021 will be offensively contributing as fast as possible, and then likely finding a way to get him up to the big league club.

Although shortstop would be the traditional and straightforward path of progression, Lewis could experience a similar scenario to his teammate Kirilloff. For much of the past year Minnesota has begun to groom the lefty slugger as a first basemen. Regardless of Miguel Sano currently occupying the position, Kirilloff has found more of a home on the dirt than he did in the corner outfield. It was right field though that provided the opportunity for his debut, and it’s left field where he could find a home should the Twins non-tender Eddie Rosario.

Back to Lewis, we are working with a scenario in which the roster becomes constructed with the most possible talent, and Royce finds the quickest opportunity to play. Whether or not Byron Buxton finds himself on the shelf in 2021 isn’t a situation Minnesota wants to dream on. By having Lewis ready for that possibility however, they have a ready-made fill-in that could represent a higher ceiling than any bench alternative brought in from the outside.

No matter how or where it happens, I’d bet a sizeable amount that Royce Lewis makes his Major League debut for the Minnesota Twins in 2021. I’d place a greater than 25% chance that it comes at a position other than shortstop, and it’s a decent bet that there won’t need to be an injury to Jorge Polanco in order to facilitate the opportunity.

I can definitely imagine that Minnesota would like to simplify things for a prospect with so much promise. Bringing multiple gloves to the yard each day, and positional uncertainty wouldn’t represent that. Lewis is a poised kid though, and once they feel the bat is ready to play, the athleticism and instincts will take him far on their own no matter which number designates his position.

Go out and get pitching. Go out and find a worthy fill in for Josh Donaldson. Minnesota Twins, you can skip the centerfield replacement, your top prospect has that covered.

Twins Must Figure Out Corner Prospects

 

The Minnesota Twins signed two long term extensions for current big leaguers back in 2019. One of them was given to German left fielder, Max Kepler. He’s unlikely to be going anywhere, but the same can’t be said for right fielder Eddie Rosario. With just one open outfield spot, the organization has at least three corner talents to generate a plan for.

 

Now able to call the 2020 Major League Baseball year, last season, it comes with the reality that top prospect Alex Kirilloff made his debut. Surprisingly, he did so in the final game of the year, an elimination tilt against the Houston Astros during the Wild Card round of the Postseason. In making that debut however, it was the second appearance from one of Minnesota’s premier corner outfield talents.

 

Brent Rooker beat Kirilloff to the big leagues. Prior to a season ending injury, Rooker impressed during his first seven major league contests. He posted a hearty .960 OPS and three of his six hits were of the extra base variety (with one leaving the yard). As was the case during his minor league days however, he did post an empty walk tally with a 5/0 K/BB ratio. It’s not that Rooker can’t be an OBP guy, but there’s a lot of swing and miss to his profile as well.

 

Rounding out the trio of talented options is Trevor Larnach. Another first round selection, the former Oregon State Beaver is knocking on the door in his own right. He too isn’t considered a centerfield candidate, but he’s also the least like to move to first base or designated hitter. The bat power is elite, and Baseball Prospectus had him as a top 50 prospect heading into 2020. He owns an .853 professional OPS and was at .842 in just over 40 Double-A games during 2019. Despite the lack of minor league season, his abilities are advanced, and he should be an option early in 2021.

 

What Minnesota does to handle this trio could be one of the most important decisions in their immediate future. It already appears as if Alex Kirilloff has seen his last days in a minor league uniform, and Brent Rooker did nothing to warrant a step back either. Kirilloff could open as Minnesota’s left fielder to kick off 2021, and Rooker’s role expands if Nelson Cruz is not retained. How Larnach fits will be interesting to see, but you can bet he’s ready to kick that door in.

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will likely always need to have a strong backup plan for if and when Byron Buxton’s aggressive style lands him on the shelf. Until that happens though, none of these guys are players solely needing to come up and sit. LaMonte Wade Jr. and Jake Cave are both great backup options, but neither is the horse you want to tie a buggy too. The Twins have a group of corner guys ready to take over, and how they deploy them all is a narrative worth watching.

 

Rooker, Larnach, and Kirilloff couldn’t have less similar backgrounds being separated by accomplishments at the collegiate and high school level. They’ve all turned heads on a pro field though, and you can bet than Minnesota will be looking to make that a constant reality at Target Field for many years to come.

Decision Making Time on Eddie Rosario

 

If the Twins number one decision this winter is whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, the second most important may be what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The home-grown prospect is due for a raise in arbitration and at a project $9 million or so, it’s down to crunch time.

 

Eddie Rosario’s all but established as a big-league veteran by now, but it’s also well known what his production profile looks like. He’s a free swinger that has the ability to do damage while leaving a significant amount of opportunity on the table. He’s a poor on-base hitter, and defensively he’s rarely completely checked in.

 

After admitting to his shortcomings publicly this offseason, Rosario committed to making strides defensively and showing better plate discipline. In the shortened season that was, it resulted in a 16-point increase to OBP (.316) and a 9 run DRS swing (+3). Given the muted amount of games and innings, the defensive mark was on pace to generate a career best DRS tally with a UZR to follow suit. He also posted five outfield assists in just 51 games. Still people attempt to run on his arm.

 

So, that’s the good news. The bad news is that his totals resulted in just a .257/.316/.476 slash line with a 2.9 fWAR/162. That’s not to suggest Rosario is a bad player by any means, but a 2.9 fWAR would’ve been just the 25^th (of a total 53) best mark among qualified outfielders in 2019. For Rosario, that also would’ve represented the second highest tally of his career.

 

What Minnesota must decide is where they project Rosario going forward, and what they logically see from the alternative options. At 29-years-old it’s entirely fair to argue that this is where the Puerto Rican enters his prime. Unfortunately, that more often translates to enhanced production based upon current trends rather than an ultimate change in approach. In other words, the lack of strike zone command isn’t going to suddenly get better because of his peak physical stature. Entering the final year of arbitration, there certainly could be added motivation as he looks for that first big contract.

 

On the alternative options front the Twins likely need to look no further than their internal assets. Alex Kirilloff made his Major League debut in game two of the American League Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. If I were a betting man, and I am, seeing Kirilloff return to the minors in 2021 seems unlikely. He’s a natural corner outfielder and appears ready to assume that role immediately. Although the arm doesn’t profile the same, Kirilloff is a vastly better hitting prospect with both plus on-base and power skills. Brent Rooker needs a role, although is less certain with a deeper floor, and top fellow prospect Trevor Larnach is near-ready as well. Add in LaMonte Wade and Jake Cave being capable options and you’ve got yourself a stable.

 

I don’t see Minnesota getting a ton for Rosario in trade. He’s under team control for just one more season, and teams (as would be the case for the Twins) likely aren’t lining up to pay a career .788 OPS guy over $9 million. Non-tendering Rosario would seem like a misstep but only given the uncertainty as to where that financial commitment goes. If the Twins can allocate those funds to another player filling a separate need, then so be it. You’d have a hard time spinning a non-tender as positive if the money goes unspent, however.

 

Last offseason seemed like a prime opportunity to trade Rosario. He was coming off of MVP votes and posted his third straight season with an OPS at .800 or above. When that didn’t happen, the future became a bit murkier. It’s hard to lean one way or another without having the other part of the decision-making process in hand as well, but this is a storyline to watch over the winter.

Midseason 2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

It’s really weird to be providing a midseason update on Minnesota Twins prospects when not only has a Major League game not been played, but the Minor League season is all but cancelled as well. There hasn’t been anything of substance to look at, although my thoughts on a few players have shifted.

I can’t say that I derived anything of considerable substance from the week I spent watching back fields action down in Fort Myers, but there’s also been a (very brief) Major League Baseball draft that put some fresh talent into the organization as well. 2020 has been anything but normal, so let’s embrace the goofiness and get underway with the rankings.

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Top 15 Prospects

2020 Twins Draft Picks

15. Wander Javier SS

Losing a full season of Minor League Baseball may hurt no one in the Twins system more than it does Wander Javier. An elite talent who has fallen completely off the map since Rookie Ball, Javier is coming off a dismal .601 OPS with Cedar Rapids in 2019. He’s still just 21, but a year of missed development and wanting to distance himself from a season ago isn’t ideal.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

I really like Canterino and think he can continue to push up these rankings as a relatively high floor prospect. He’ll be 23 next season, but he put in a very impressive showing to start his pro career. Working 25 innings after 99 in college is a nice taste, and clearly the Twins were impressed skipping him over the Appy League. He should start at High-A Fort Myers in 2021.

13. Gilberto Celestino OF

Part of the package returned for Ryan Pressly, Celestino was originally viewed through the lens of being a plus defender. While that remains true, he reached High-A Fort Myers last season and posted a .759 OPS. The 10 home runs were a nice bit of power, and if that comes along with his speed and defensive abilities, he’ll rocket up this board. There’s clearly a reason why Minnesota wanted him on the 40 man this winter.

12. Matt Wallner OF

I’m higher on Wallner than most I think, but he is a bit more than the traditional booming bat the Twins have. There’s athleticism here and he can play on the corners in the outfield. His arm is massive, so right field makes a lot of sense. He was already looking like an advanced hitter, so the wiping out of 2020 may not hurt him as much. There’s always fallback potential here that he could get on the mound.

11. Aaron Sabato 1B

Continuing the mold of targeting thunderous bats, Minnesota went with arguably the best power hitter in the draft during 2020. Sabato can launch the baseball, and he’ll absolutely have to with little to now defensive value. The expectation is a big leaguer at worst here, with some serious thump as a consistent and regular producer.

10. Brent Rooker 1B/OF

Rooker could see time on a taxi-squad for the Twins in 2020, and it’s not hard to wonder on as his bat is ready. There’s uncertainty as to where he’ll play given mixed reports on abilities in the outfield and at first base, but the bat should hold its own. He’s got a different build than Sabato, but all of the same power is there.

9. Keoni Cavaco SS

Keeping Cavaco back for me is just how lost he looked at the plate in his debut season. The K/BB ration was nightmarish, and that’s the bigger story than where his slash line was for me. I think he really needed to get back on the diamond and in the swing of things for some positive steps forward. Obviously, this is still a first round talent, but it’s a wait and see approach for me.

8. Ryan Jeffers C

One of the biggest movers nationally in the Twins system has been Jeffers. He went from a bat first player that may not be able to catch, and now is considered multi-faceted within the organization. The receiving and throwing skills have sharpened, and nothing has slowed down with the bat. Like Rooker, Jeffers could be on the taxi squad for the Twins, and probably is a better option behind Alex Avila in the hole than Willians Astudillo.

7. Blayne Enlow RHP

Minnesota saved money on some earlier picks to grab Enlow given the promise they saw in him. So far that’s been greatly rewarded. He’s been a consistent arm, and while not dominant, has gotten it done at every level. Would like to see a few more strikeouts, but there’s a mid-rotation upside here. Another guy that could factor in depending on how big minor league depth goes for 2020.

6. Lewis Thorpe LHP

2020 was going to be a big year for Thorpe and it’s taken on quite a different shape. He was away from Spring Training getting reset for a couple of weeks and then look ticketed for Triple-A Rochester. With the situation as it is now, he could be an extra long man out of the pen. His stuff was better than the numbers said in 2019, and I think there’s legit stuff to dream on from the Aussie lefty.

5. Jhoan Duran RHP

The way 2020 has gone, and the limited season may actually accelerate Duran’s pro debut. I assumed it would come this year, but that wasn’t a lock. Expanded taxi squads and roster could certainly make an arm this good worthy of a relief look. He’s going to start in a traditional year. The near triple-digit stuff plays from the get-go. Bring him in as a middle reliever might be a nice boost for Rocco Baldelli, however.

4. Trevor Larnach OF

I’d bet heavily on Larnach showing up at the Major League level in 2020. He’s an advanced hitter and works the zone well. He’s held his own during Spring Training action and watching him launch a ball on his first big league at bat was a lot of fun. He’s the most likely of the Twins power prospects to remain in the outfield. Good athleticism, although it will play better on the corners.

3. Jordan Balazovic RHP

This season will present somewhat of a weird spot for Balazovic. I think he’s best utilized as a starter and not sure how much his stuff plays up in the pen. He’s got a legitimate shot to be top half rotation arm and pairing him with Jose Berrios down the road could be lots of fun. The Canadian has received lots of praise in the past calendar year and the stuff absolutely warrants it.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B

Plenty can still make the argument that Minnesota’s top two prospects are interchangeable. I have Kirilloff second because once he moves off an outfield spot (as he already has) first base provides less value. He’s a pure hitter, he’s going to hit for average, and the power will be there as well. He was going to be ready at some point in 2020, and no we’ll likely see it sooner rather than later.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Lots of ups and downs for Lewis on the farm last year, but he ended on fire as the Arizona Fall League MVP. There’s going to be concerns about the leg kick until he consistently puts it together, and plenty still wonder if he’s not better suited for centerfield. Regardless, he’s going to play a premium position and looks the part of a perennial All-Star.

2020 Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects

The Winter Meetings in San Diego have come to a close and the Minnesota Twins have all sights set on the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli is looking to repeat an extraordinary 2019 performance, and the big-league club looks to remain one of the best in the majors.

As the reigning AL Central Division champions, the Twins now have teams gunning for them, and while the offseason still must incorporate significant talent acquisition, getting contributions from a deep and loaded farm system is something to be expected.

My top 15 prospects were last updated back in June at the midway point of the season; you can find those here. Going back over rankings, here is the full history.

2016 Top 15 Prospects

2017 Top 15 Prospects

2018 Top 15 Prospects

2019 Top 15 Prospects

15. Nick Gordon INF

Gordon followed the same narrative he has employed most of his minor league career. Year two at Triple-A was significantly better than the first season, but the ceiling looks relatively muted at this point. He’s a contact hitter with average defensive ability and good speed. There are some question marks on passion, but talent remains enough for him to be a big league regular.

14. Matt Canterino RHP

After being taken in the 2^nd round of the 2019 draft Canterino quickly established himself in pro ball. He skipped over Elizabethton and turned in five nice starts at Low-A. He’s got strikeout stuff, and while the delivery is somewhat quirky, it showed well in his debut. We’ll need to find out what tweaks are necessary as he rises through the system, but this looks like a middle of the rotation arm.

13. Wander Javier SS

No one had more anticipation leading up to 2019 than Javier. After missing all the 2018 season, he finally had a clean bill of health. Now with the year in the rear view, it’s hard not to suggest health was the only positive development. Playing 80 games at Cedar Rapids, Javier posted just a .601 OPS and put up a 116/35 K/BB. He’s got all the talent to be a top 20 prospect in baseball, but he needs a turnaround in 2020 badly.

12. Matt Wallner OF

A big arm but drafted for his bat, Wallner showed out in his first year of pro ball. He posted an .813 OPS at Elizabethton and swatted six homers. His time in Cedar Rapids didn’t include gaudy numbers, but it was brief only getting in 12 games. Owning somewhat of a similar profile to fellow prospect Brent Rooker, Wallner should be able to use his athleticism to continue producing at higher levels.

11. Keoni Cavaco SS

Minnesota grabbed Cavaco with the 13^th overall pick and sense him to the GCL. Freshly out of high school, the 18-year-old didn’t get off too much of a hot start. That said, he ascended draft boards due to strong national showings, and his tools all jump off the page. The most important thing that took place for him this year was simply getting engrained into the pro ball schedule.

10. Ryan Jeffers C

If there’s something the Twins did at the highest level last year, it was develop catchers. Jeffers took another step forwards behind the dish, and his bat continues to be an asset. He was promoted to Double-A down the stretch and generated an .856 OPS. Possessing true home run power as well as a growing ability as a defender, he’s asserted himself as the best catching prospect in the system.

9. Blayne Enlow RHP

Things just continue to trend upwards for the Louisiana native. He made it to High-A Fort Myers and posted a 3.38 ERA across 69.1 IP. The hope would be that strikeouts would continue to rise with the walks seeing some decrease. He’s still working on pitching, honing in command, and being able to do more than simply put the ball behind opposing hitters. There’s a ton of talent here and he’s a hard enough worker to harness it all.

8. Lewis Thorpe LHP

Thorpe’s big-league debut came as a contributor to the Twins division title. Although he posted a gaudy 6.18 ERA, it was backed by a 3.47 FIP and was a result of one blow up start against the Indians. He was great in relief and posted a strong 10.1 K/9. He should be still viewed as a starter, but he could be a lefty weapon out of the pen if a change is made. Although he won’t ever be an ace, he looks the part of a certain asset in on the mound.

7. Jhoan Duran RHP

An MLB debut is probably on the horizon for Duran in 2020 if things go well. He was dominant at High-A Fort Myers and outpitched his 4.86 ERA at Double-A Pensacola. A fireballer with strikeout stuff, this is looking like a very nice return for the Twins from the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran keeps the ball in the yard and does a decent job limiting walks. Another step up and he could be trending towards a frontline starter.

6. Brent Rooker 1B/OF

Somewhat limited by position and age, Rooker continues to rake and make it not matter. He could factor in for the Twins at 1B if the footwork gets in line, but the bat is going to have him up sooner rather than later. He missed the latter half of the season due to injury, but in 65 games at Triple-A Rochester he posted a .933 OPS with 14 dingers. Expect him to start on the farm, but there should be early opportunity for him in the majors.

5. Trevor Larnach OF

After a strong pro debut with an .890 OPS over his first 42 games in 2018, the former Beavers outfielder did nothing to calm his steam last season. He made it to Double-A Pensacola and posted the same .842 OPS he had in 84 games with High-A Fort Myers. A power threat homered in his first major league spring training game, Larnach can play all over the outfield and could push for an opportunity with the Twins before 2020 ends.

4. Jordan Balazovic RHP

Maybe no one in baseball ascended more in 2019 than Balazovic did. After being a fringe top 100 prospect, it’s hard to see him anywhere outside the top 50 heading into the upcoming season. He threw 73 innings for Fort Myers and posted a 2.84 ERA. The strikeouts are there, the command is there, and it all resulted in dominance. We’ll see if he’s tested at the next level, but the Canadian is looking like a staff ace.

3. Brusdar Graterol RHP

A three-inning cameo was what Graterol got to call his MLB debut experience. Velocity is his game and that showed as he routinely pumped triple digits. Strikeouts dipped for him at Double-A Pensacola this year, but he was enough of an asset to be used out of the pen on a division winning club. Expect him to go back to starting and be stretch out to begin 2020, but there’s so much to like here. If a third pitch develops, he could be a dominant starter. If it doesn’t, he’ll be a lockdown relief talent.

2. Alex Kirilloff OF

Missing time to start the year, Kirilloff took a while to get going. It resulted in just a .756 OPS in his first look at the Double-A level, but that shouldn’t cool anything about his trajectory. He’s still a corner outfielder that oozes athleticism and has an advanced approach at the dish. He’s a disciplined hitter with plenty of power, and a quick start in 2020 is going to light a fire under the promotion talk.

1. Royce Lewis SS

Much like Kirilloff, Lewis didn’t get off to a quick start and his bat scuffled all season. He posted just a .661 OPS between Fort Myers and Pensacola, while being questioned as to whether he’d stick at shortstop. Heading to the Arizona Fall League, he took home the MVP trophy and challenged for the batting title after posting a .975 OPS in 22 games. There’s far too much talent to ever write Lewis off regardless of the sample size. This kid still looks like an absolute superstar and getting back in a Blue Wahoos uniform to prove it is likely driving him this winter.

How Good Is Noah Syndergaard?

The Minnesota Twins are going to be scouring the trade market for the next few days as they look to supplement their big-league club. Relief pitching will be the main focus, but adding a starter makes some sense too. I am out on trading real assets for rentals, but a controllable arm could be more than enticing for Derek Falvey. The premiere name out there is the New York Mets Noah Syndergaard. 2019 has been a down year, but just how good is he?

Commonly known as Thor, Syndergaard is a controllable asset through the 2021 Major League Baseball season. He’s costing the Mets just $6 million this season on an arbitration deal, and that figure will rise slightly each of the next two campaigns. After posting a 2.93 ERA through his first four big league seasons he owns a 4.33 mark in 2019. Much of that is on the Mets being the worst defensive team in baseball however, as his FIP is 3.64.

Drafted out of high school there’s a lot to like with Syndergaard. He has worked in the majors since his age 22 season and has consistently been among the best pitchers in the sport. Yet to win a Cy Young or make multiple All-Star teams, his best years are likely yet to come. Unfortunately, he’s never been completely healthy and has pitched over 180 innings in a season just one time during his five-year career. When he’s on the mound it’s must watch action, but you have to believe in his ability to stay there.

Looking under the hood we can generate a better idea of what Thor actually brings to the table. His 98.2 mph average fastball velocity is right in line with career norms, and he’s one of the hardest throwing starters in the game. The career 13.2% whiff rate is solid and while he’s down to 12.5% this season, that’s still a strong floor. Generating a ground ball roughly 50% of the time over the course of his career and giving up hard contact less then 30% of the time, it’s a batted ball profile that should generate success.

To address some of the 2019 concerns we can probably start first and foremost with the slider. Although Syndergaard can blow his fastball by many big-league hitters, it’s the breaking pitch that keeps them off balance. For whatever reason he went from utilizing the slider 20% of the time all the way down to 12% in 2019. He’s throwing his fastball more than at any point since 2016, and he’s sprinkled in a bit more changeup usage. Working with him on what is a dominant secondary offering is probably part of the puzzle here.

Because he’s gone to a straighter offering more often, batters are more than likely able to hone in on the zone. We some evidence of that in his chase rate this season. Down to a career low 31.5%, opposing hitters simply aren’t offering at pitches outside of the strike zone. Despite not being egregious by any means, that input has also led to a career high 73.8% contract rate.

At the end of the day it’s pretty difficult to argue against the merits of a 26-year-old fireballer that throws a ton of strikes and limits walks. Sure, the overall numbers are down some in 2019, but it appears that all the stuff is still there. Expecting Wes Johnson to help unlock everything all at once is a pretty good bet and getting a guy like this that can be worked with for a significant period of time would really bear some fruit.

Organizations like the Twins really have to determine their path when looking at how to best position themselves for an ace. Derek Falvey swung for the fences on Yu Darvish as a free agent a year ago, but ultimately stopped shy of matching the Cubs offer. Regardless of that deal now looking bad, the Twins being the frontrunner on the premiere free agent starting option seems like a foolish bet on an annual basis. You can certainly draft and develop talent, but that’s also not a straightforward process and one that takes an incredible amount of time. That only leaves the trade route.

Dealing for a guy like Syndergaard is going to hurt in the form of prospect capital. The Star Tribune’s Lavelle E. Neal suggested that New York has asked for both Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis, which should not happen, but any deal is going to be steep. At some point it becomes whether the front office wants to deal in dollars or prospects, and for Syndergaard the latter may be worth genuinely exploring.