Did the Twins Fleece Tampa Twice?

Teams are often considered to be on the losing end of trades when dealing with the Tampa Bay Rays. The brass in St. Pete does more with less, and players seem to get better when going to Florida. Did the Twins just get them for a second time though?

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made a deal with Tampa prior to the 2018 season. They sent infield prospect Jermaine Palacios out in exchange for starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi. After a solid but mediocre debut season, Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 and posted a career best 10.1 K/9 bolstering his 3.51 ERA. Palacios had a .575 OPS as a 21-year-old during his debut season in the Tampa organization, and dropped to a .542 OPS as a 22-year-old repeating Double-A. Now back at Double-A for Minnesota, he’s 24 and owns a .745 mark at the level.

Regardless of what happens with Palacios, it’s hard not to see how Odorizzi worked out a win. Could that be happening again in terms of Nelson Cruz and Joe Ryan?

The Twins had to deal their designated hitter. Cruz is 41-years-old and it’s more than evident this season was lost for Minnesota. Despite his .907 OPS here, Cruz needed to be flipped for any semblance of a return at the deadline. Getting a pitcher like Ryan, capable of fitting into the top-half of a rotation, seemed like a coup for the front office.

It’s far too early to make determinations on what Ryan will be, but Tampa has to be underwhelmed in what they received. Cruz just recently surpassed the .700 OPS mark (thanks in part to facing his former club), and has just a .219 average with a .273 on-base percentage. It plays for a team that needed a big bat, but Nelson hasn’t been close to the Boomstick the Twins knew him as.

Minnesota must be pleased with what they’ve seen from Ryan. In 9.0 IP for St. Paul he had a 17/2 K/BB and allowed just two earned runs. After returning from the Olympics as Team USA’s ace, that was enough to earn his first big league promotion. Across five innings he surrendered three runs while punching out five and walking one. The book that was suggested at Triple-A continued to read correctly at the Major League level, and it’s a step away from what has become tradition.

Ryan is not a fireballer. His average fastball velocity for the Twins sat at just 90.8 mph. In a league focused on hitting triple-digits, it’s an uphill battle for a ball like that to play. His four-seam generated an average of 2,100 RPM and is used up in the zone. Twins Daily’s Parker Hagemen broke down the success of locating that pitch, and why it should be believed that the lesser velocity can still have a tremendous effect at the highest level.

joe ryan's fastball deserves the hype.

how does 90mph get that many swing and misses?

ryan releases at 5.05 ft, one of the lowest for non-side-armers.

his attack angle is -4.08 -- one of the highest in mlb -- giving it a "rise" effect.

low release point + ride = above barrel. pic.twitter.com/zjzCTFNmhG

— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) September 2, 2021

One start is entirely too soon to crown Ryan as Minnesota’s next ace. From my vantage point, I’m not even sure his stuff has that type of ceiling. What I do know is that the Twins getting this much control over Ryan in exchange for two month of an aging Cruz on a bad big league team is a steal in every sense of the word. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t have a good track record on the free agent market, and their trades could even be questioned at times. When they’ve dealt with Tampa though, it’s hard not to consider the front office a resounding two-for-two.

Twins Go for Arms in Dealing Cruz

Nelson Cruz is the newest member of the Tampa Bay Rays. This offseason Tampa was among the final suitors in contention to land his services.

 

Minnesota ended up bring back the 40-year-old and he’s picked up right where he left off. Unfortunately for the Twins, their season has gone as anything but expected, and they find themselves as a clear seller. The best designated hitter in the American League stays in that role and gives Tampa another thumper in the middle of their lineup.

 

Given Cruz’s advanced age and contract status, it was hard to fathom much of a return. Minnesota instead included Calvin Faucher as a throw in prospect and landed Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, Tampa’s 10^th and 17^th best prospects per MLB pipeline. Both may be relievers, and are already past their 24^th birthdays, but they have high velocity stuff and already are at Triple-A.

 

For an organization needing arm talent as both starters and in the bullpen, this is a real solid get for a guy that wasn’t going to be around in a couple of months. Ryan will need to be added to the 40 man this winter, with Strotman already holding down a spot. Cruz leaves as a fan favorite, one of the most productive players in history, and having done so as a leading member of a record setting homer club.

 

Here’s some instant analysis from industry experts:

Joe Ryan is a top 8 type pitching prospect and Drew Stotman is a top 25 type pitching prospect. Faucher is a an organizational type non-prospect. https://t.co/vzm2kFu0et

— Jim Bowden⭐️ (@JimBowdenGM) July 22, 2021

Strotman was added to the 40-man in Dec, has thrown 58.1 IP in AAA. Ryan would need to be added to the 40 this Dec. Both have a shot to be back end SP or multi inn RP by 2022.

Faucher is a power reliever with big stuff and command issues, 25 years old in Double-A: solid throw-in https://t.co/5VyWrT7GLW

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) July 22, 2021

Joe Ryan is an interesting get for the Twins. Has amazing minor league strikeout and walk totals, and an invisiball fastball (elbow forward so ball pops into release, high ride, jumps at hitters) but secondaries are a question mark and he might still be a reliever.

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) July 22, 2021

Snap verdict on the Nelson Cruz trade: The Rays get the single best bat on the market and someone with an A+ clubhouse reputation. But the Twins did very well, too, in getting Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, two hard-throwing right-handers who are close to big-league-ready.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 22, 2021

Is Nelson Cruz Cooked?

 

Over the winter the Minnesota Twins and Nelson Cruz looked at each fondly while they also had discussions from a distance. Although it seemed destined that a reunion would happen, the pieces had to fall into place. Now, through 47 games in 2021, maybe the victor of all the spoils is finally going to be Father Time.

 

Coming off a season in which Cruz played in 53 games for the Twins, Minnesota watched him follow up a 1.031 OPS in 2019 with a .992 mark. Although Rocco Baldelli’s club wasn’t a complete reincarnation of the Bomba Squad, Cruz continued to send the ball over the fence with routine frequency. That is still happening in 2021 as he’s on pace to smash 30 homers, but that would also be his lowest total since 2013.

 

Then there’s what happened in May. Sure, Cruz’s .839 OPS is still fine, especially for a man doing this at 40 years old. That said, he posted a lackluster .663 OPS in the month of May, launched just three dingers, and owned a 23/9 K/BB. His 33.9% hard hit rate on the year is the lowest it’s been since 2011, and his 18.9% HR/FB rate is something he’s virtually never messed with.

 

When Cruz started in the big leagues way back in 2007, the average fastball velocity he faced was 91.5 mph. Now, that’s been ratcheted up to 94 mph and combined with an aging human body. He’s also made things harder on himself by posting a career worst 34.8% chase rate.

 

At some point this was all bound to happen. 2020 caused concern for me down the stretch as well. Over the final month Cruz owned just an .844 OPS, which wouldn’t be as negative if he weren’t dropping off from a 1.068 mark to that point. He then completely hit the skids over the final 11 games of the season, owning just a .523 OPS with two extra-base hits. It is true that Cruz was one of the only Twins to contribute during the Postseason, but that was a three-game sample that amounted to just six total at bats.

 

Maybe the month of May was a grind for Cruz, and maybe he’s still coming out of some lingering effects following the hit by pitch. What would certainly not be a good development for a bad Twins team is that their slugger is falling off a cliff, and it’s a reality that would hurt twice as much when it comes to the deadline and any opportunity to flip him for assets becomes more of a chore than a choice.

 

We’ve seen Cruz stave of the aging process for quite some time. If the Twins are going to come back in 2021, or get anything back for their designated hitter, we’ll need one last encore.

The Twins Earn Their “A”

 

And there was much rejoicing…Remember when the Chicago White Sox won the AL Central back in December 2020? Unfortunately for them, the Minnesota Twins have a few tricks still up their sleeve. Now days before Spring Training is set to commence, the reigning champs are positioned for a repeat.

 

After signing Nelson Cruz and Alex Colome to deals for the upcoming season, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have all but put a bow on their winter spending. I’d still think a pact with Tyler Clippard or a reliever in the $2 million range could make sense, as does a trade or non-roster invite for some starting pitching. No matter what happens from here on out though, the Fightin’ Baldelli’s are ready to go.

 

Continuing to view this organization through the lens of Terry Ryan and Bill Smith regimes has been a fool’s errand for some time now. It’s been the blueprint of Falvey and Levine to be calculated, risk averse, and strike where opportunity is deemed to match projectability.

 

Andrelton Simmons is not someone’s leftovers, and Josh Donaldson allowed Minnesota a new high-water mark in free agent history. Colome comes in above the bottom of the relief market, and both Happ and Cruz look like team-friendly deals in the landscape of their peers.

 

The Twins didn’t go out and sign George Springer or Trevor Bauer this offseason, but they didn’t need to. This is already a club that had all of the pieces for a deep run, and reality suggests they just need to get out of their own way. Anything can happen in a short series, which is why winning a World Series in incredibly tough. That said, you should continue to expect Postseason appearances often into the foreseeable future.

 

Today it was announced that 28% of Hammond Stadium will host fans for Spring Training, the players are just days from arriving, and we’re soon going to hear “play ball!” Minnesota is ready to make noise in the American League, and there isn’t a team in the National League that should be licking their chops come October either.

The Twins Free Agency is Happening

 

This afternoon the Minnesota Twins made their first big splash of the winter in signing former Yankees starter J.A. Happ. He’s nothing flashy by any means, but the $8 million pact will move the salary needle.

 

Here’s the deal with Happ, he was passable in 2020 and his Baseball Savant metrics paint a prettier picture than a 4.57 FIP can (even with a 3.47 ERA). He was victimized by the longball at Yankee Stadium more often than he has been previously in his career, but he’s just a modest strikeout pitcher. Ultimately, he takes the place of Rich Hill on the 2021 Twins club and there’s nothing wrong with that.

This is the #MNTwins newest start in 2020. It isn't flashy, but that'll play at the back end of the group. pic.twitter.com/kGnOO7EXnY

— Ted (@tlschwerz) January 20, 2021

If Wes Johnson can utilize Happ as a 5^th starter that eats innings and keeps the offense within striking distance, he’ll make turns all season long. If he posts a 5.00+ FIP a la 2019 he could be a candidate to be bumped when Randy Dobnak or one of the other prospects force their way into the picture. It’s not glamorous, but it doesn’t preclude them from making any other moves.

 

Minnesota still needs a better arm in the rotation, and I have made the point since the beginning of winter that a trade seemed likely for a rotation arm. With Happ in the fold, I’m more confident than ever it will happen. Assuming Nelson Cruz is eventually brought back as the team’s designated hitter, plopping down $12 million or so on Jake Odorizzi becomes less feasible. A controllable starter still in arbitration can be had for less, and the prospect capital is where the spend comes.

 

I don’t think Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will fill out their bench solely with internal options, and at least one other relief arm still needs to be acquired. By allowed something like $14 million after a Cruz deal, there’s enough left on the bone to make a handful of different directions work.

 

Right now, just one of the four open spots on the 40-man roster has been utilized, and there could be more opened up with a player in that group sent as part of any package. There’s less than a month until Spring Training is supposed to kick off, and I told you it would be busy.

Architecting the 2021 Twins Roster

 

Despite being less than a month from Spring Training (or at least as it’s presently scheduled) there’s still something like 75% of eligible free agents unsigned across baseball. Huge names like Bauer and Springer are homeless, and the Minnesota Twins specifically have four empty spots on their 40-man roster. Moves are coming, but who and when?

 

I’ve thrown out a handful of names in this space as well as on Twitter this offseason, and now I’ll put some pen to paper. Using the Twins Daily created TwinsPayroll.com I plugged in names to a roster matrix. This would probably be a mix of what I’d like to see happen, and what I think is feasible.

Starting Lineup

 

Ultimately, I believe Nelson Cruz is back as the Twins designated hitter. That worries me as time is undefeated and he struggled down the stretch against fastballs in 2020. However, the fit is there, and I don’t know that we see a universal DH in 2021 (which is too bad). I’m hoping Minnesota avoids a two-year deal, and maybe an option for 2022 is enough to get that done. If it’s not Cruz, I’d prefer a two- or three-year pact with Marcel Ozuna or Michael Brantley. Both of them have positional flexibility, and a bit more long-term belief.

 

It should be a no-brainer that Alex Kirilloff will take over for Eddie Rosario in left field. Sure, the Twins could play the service time game, but that would be short-sighted given their window of contention right now. Allow him to make his $600k and roll with your best option out there.

 

There’s still plenty of reason to believe that Trevor Story could be a very good fit for this club through trade, and someone from the pool of Gregorious, Semien, or Simmons makes sense as well. I like the idea of one-year deals with the current roster construction, and there’s no reason why moving Jorge Polanco off of shortstop is a bad thing.

 

Bench

 

Ryan Jeffers is about the only player I’m confident in from this group. He and Mitch Garver should create a very solid backstop tandem, even if they’re both right-handed hitters. Jake Cave would make sense as the fourth outfielder, although I’d like to see Brent Rooker’s bat somewhere. Minnesota needs a utility player and signing either Kike Hernandez or Tommy La Stella is a good get there. I like Jurickson Profar the most of that group, but think he’ll get paid more than he’s ultimately worth. If you’re filling out the roster with an additional utility type, Travis Blankenhorn makes a lot of sense internally. I have no idea how this front office views former first-round pick Nick Gordon, but it would make sense for him to be in the conversation as well after a solid second season at Triple-A. The missed time in 2020 did him no favors, however.

 

Starting Rotation

 

There should be no pushback on Minnesota needing to acquire a fourth starter. The top three are solid and set, but another arm is a must. From the jump Jake Odorizzi looked like the second-best starter behind Trevor Bauer on the free agent market. He’s still out there, and there’s been buzz from other organizations having interest, but it would be nice to see him return healthy to the Twins. I still wonder if there’s not a good bit of reason to believe this arm could be acquired via trade, and anyone from Jon Gray to Sonny Gray could be exciting.

 

Randy Dobnak has pitched himself into the conversation for earned starts, and whether that begins 2021 in the big-league rotation or as a first man up type, he should see plenty of work. Minnesota will likely unveil one or both of Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran this season but pushing all of those arms back a bit with starting depth seems necessary.

 

Bullpen

 

Although he’s the hometown guy, I’m not necessarily particular to Brad Hand. I do think someone of that ilk is a must though, and Trevor Rosenthal fits the bill. There are probably just three spots left to fill out the relief corps, and Cody Stashak should absolutely claim one of them. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have targeted a few waiver claims in the form of Ian Gibault and Brandon Waddell but there may only be room for one. Looking for this year’s Matt Wisler, the spring slate should sort that out.

Caution on Youth for Twins

 

Going into this offseason there’s expected to be a couple of certainties for the Minnesota Twins. One is that payroll will reflect lost revenue and take a step backwards, the other is that a return of an intact 2020 roster likely isn’t going to happen. Both of those things lean towards a youth movement, but how much can the roster support?

 

Regardless of it being a truncated 60 game sprint, the 2020 season provided Minnesota their second straight AL Central division title. Although they went winless in the Postseason yet again, it was their second straight trip, and third time in the past four years. This organization hasn’t finished lower than 2^nd in the division since 2016, and it’s during this window of competitiveness that capitalization must be executed upon.

 

At this point the two most likely avenues for a youth movement come at designated hitter and in left field. It’s far from a certainty that the Twins bring Nelson Cruz back. He’s been an integral part of their roster, but he’s also 40-years-old, worthy of a hefty paycheck, and time will eventually run its course. It probably is a certainty that Eddie Rosario isn’t back in left field, his arbitration number seems destined for a non-tender.

 

So, what do you do? The most generally accepted answer is that Brent Rooker could take over as the designated hitter with top prospect Alex Kirilloff parlaying his Postseason MLB debut into an Opening Day starter role. There’s a lot of talent in both of those bodies, but that reality is also asking a substantial amount.

 

Over two seasons with the Twins Nelson Cruz has launched 57 homers and posted an OPS of 1.020. In fact, the last time he finished a season with an OPS south of .800 was a decade ago as a 31-year-old. Brent Rooker has played in seven big league games, and his minor league OPS checked in at .861. I don’t think there’s any denying that Rooker’s bat is exciting, but it’s also much less disciplined than Cruz’s, and he’d be replacing someone with credentials worth of Hall of Fame consideration.

 

In the outfield things get a little bit easier. Rosario, while he has a cannon, plays left field, and has slipped defensively as the years have gone by. The Puerto Rican native has a general hollow slash line with a career OPS of just .788. He hasn’t been an excellent hitter since the .836 OPS in 2017, and even that was heavily carried by his slugging prowess. Kirilloff looks the part of a more advanced profile at the plate, but again, he’s stepping into expectations that will no doubt be through the roof.

 

I’m not one to believe that prospects need to force their way into opportunity consistently before they find it. I think sometimes there’s merit to allowing talent the opportunity to shine on its own. However, asking two prospects to fill the shoes of two key contributors on a team that’s once again aiming for 90+ wins and a Postseason berth is quite a tall task. Minnesota probably is better off signing a tested veteran with an expected floor to play at least one of those positions.

 

Maybe the answer doesn’t need to be a big spend on someone like Marcel Ozuna. Maybe asking Jake Cave to operate as the Opening Day left fielder isn’t aiming high enough. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle of those outcomes, but I’m not sure reality should allow it to be a youth overhaul without the expectation of growing pains.

Decision Making Time on Eddie Rosario

 

If the Twins number one decision this winter is whether or not to re-sign Nelson Cruz, the second most important may be what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The home-grown prospect is due for a raise in arbitration and at a project $9 million or so, it’s down to crunch time.

 

Eddie Rosario’s all but established as a big-league veteran by now, but it’s also well known what his production profile looks like. He’s a free swinger that has the ability to do damage while leaving a significant amount of opportunity on the table. He’s a poor on-base hitter, and defensively he’s rarely completely checked in.

 

After admitting to his shortcomings publicly this offseason, Rosario committed to making strides defensively and showing better plate discipline. In the shortened season that was, it resulted in a 16-point increase to OBP (.316) and a 9 run DRS swing (+3). Given the muted amount of games and innings, the defensive mark was on pace to generate a career best DRS tally with a UZR to follow suit. He also posted five outfield assists in just 51 games. Still people attempt to run on his arm.

 

So, that’s the good news. The bad news is that his totals resulted in just a .257/.316/.476 slash line with a 2.9 fWAR/162. That’s not to suggest Rosario is a bad player by any means, but a 2.9 fWAR would’ve been just the 25^th (of a total 53) best mark among qualified outfielders in 2019. For Rosario, that also would’ve represented the second highest tally of his career.

 

What Minnesota must decide is where they project Rosario going forward, and what they logically see from the alternative options. At 29-years-old it’s entirely fair to argue that this is where the Puerto Rican enters his prime. Unfortunately, that more often translates to enhanced production based upon current trends rather than an ultimate change in approach. In other words, the lack of strike zone command isn’t going to suddenly get better because of his peak physical stature. Entering the final year of arbitration, there certainly could be added motivation as he looks for that first big contract.

 

On the alternative options front the Twins likely need to look no further than their internal assets. Alex Kirilloff made his Major League debut in game two of the American League Wild Card series against the Houston Astros. If I were a betting man, and I am, seeing Kirilloff return to the minors in 2021 seems unlikely. He’s a natural corner outfielder and appears ready to assume that role immediately. Although the arm doesn’t profile the same, Kirilloff is a vastly better hitting prospect with both plus on-base and power skills. Brent Rooker needs a role, although is less certain with a deeper floor, and top fellow prospect Trevor Larnach is near-ready as well. Add in LaMonte Wade and Jake Cave being capable options and you’ve got yourself a stable.

 

I don’t see Minnesota getting a ton for Rosario in trade. He’s under team control for just one more season, and teams (as would be the case for the Twins) likely aren’t lining up to pay a career .788 OPS guy over $9 million. Non-tendering Rosario would seem like a misstep but only given the uncertainty as to where that financial commitment goes. If the Twins can allocate those funds to another player filling a separate need, then so be it. You’d have a hard time spinning a non-tender as positive if the money goes unspent, however.

 

Last offseason seemed like a prime opportunity to trade Rosario. He was coming off of MVP votes and posted his third straight season with an OPS at .800 or above. When that didn’t happen, the future became a bit murkier. It’s hard to lean one way or another without having the other part of the decision-making process in hand as well, but this is a storyline to watch over the winter.

The Impact of a Year Off for Certain Twins

We’re pushing towards what should have been Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. Despite the amount of waiting through the winter, COVID-19 has served up other plans and we won’t hit the mark. In what could be a lost season, what impact is there on certain Twins players?

Having casually watched some of the news and hearing this situation equated to one of wartime, I gravitated to players who previously missed big league time by serving in the military. Obviously, we haven’t had a war necessitating that level of commitment for some time, but the list of names is impact. Everyone from Jackie Robinson to Warren Spahn served the country through different branches of the military. Some players were in the peak of their careers, while others were on the fringes. There’s no denying the time off has an impact, but to what extent?

For a guy like Jose Berrios, a lost year couldn’t come at a worse time. While a shortened season may actually benefit him from a stamina and longevity perspective down the stretch, missing out on his age 26 season just a couple of years shy of free agency is suboptimal. He had put in work to retool his process this offseason, and the final hurdle remaining in between him and Cy Young candidacy was a goal to be cleared. There’s lots of good baseball left in that arm, but 2020 was set to be a pretty big turning point.

We know through multiple occurrences that Father Time is undefeated. Obviously, there were no signs of Nelson Cruz slowing down in 2019 after posting career highs across the board, but he’s quickly approaching 40 and without a contract in 2021. There’s been reports that the Twins would like to extend him if there’s desire to continue playing, but all that raises the bar of uncertainty as age trends upwards. Cruz benefits from focusing on solely one aspect of the game, but I’d hate to see ability leave him sooner with strong production still on the table.

On the flip side, there’s probably not a better scenario for guys on the edges of positional battles. Players like Randy Dobnak and Willians Astudillo have waited in the wings for most of their careers. Dobnak is fighting for a final rotation spot, but eventually will see competition from both Michael Pineda and Rich Hill. Astudillo isn’t a great fit anywhere but is adequate almost everywhere. He’s a utility guy that Minnesota currently has an abundance of, but after some departures, he’d be pushing towards the front of the line.

There’s probably no way you can slice it that a lost season is good for any healthy player. A guy like Chris Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery at this juncture becomes about as lucky as you can be given those circumstances, but that’s where the good news ends. We’re losing a year of peak performance for a handful of guys, and regardless if they can reset the health toll on their bodies, so many more questions than answers will remain.

At the end of the day this is all uncharted territory. Sports have stood still like never before, and we’re truly in a period where the level of uncertainty is at an all time high. Getting back to normalcy, on the diamond and elsewhere is the chief goal, but it remains to be seen when we’ll embark on that reality.

Buying In On Twins Pitching Prospects

Tomorrow is the annual release of Topps’ Bowman Chrome product. Each year there is a Bowman Draft and Bowman Chrome offering during the baseball card collecting calendar. As one would expect, the former highlights some of the top picks in the amateur draft while the latter picks up the slack on some of the others. For the Minnesota Twins, Chrome provides and interesting opportunity this time around.

While collecting baseball cards is traditionally a hobby, it’s also now a robust gambling and investor market. From ripping open a box looking for the next hot player or holding onto a card in hopes of it being the next Mike Trout, there’s money to be made and this isn’t just a child’s corner store pickup anymore. That isn’t more apparent anywhere than within the checklist of a Bowman product. These are all players that are defined as prospects or up and coming. Their elusive first autographs can be the most coveted cards in the hobby.

For Minnesota the signers this time around are Jorge Alcala and Jhoan Duran. It’s an intriguing duo in that both were acquired during the 2018 season in trades. Both have now spent a year within the organization, and the arrows for each are trending straight up. Alcala has earned his big-league call although he’s yet to debut, while Duran is still working exclusively as a starter topping out at Double-A.

There’s a difference between baseball good, and baseball card good, so let’s explore that within the parameters these two have provided us.

First and foremost, pitchers are a risky investment. The volatility of injury and sample size is truly one you must cope with. Then there’s the reality of a given market, and no one will argue that Twins players would be more coveted than the likes of Dodgers or Yankees. Beyond that you then get into a merit-based discussion.

Alcala is the fireballer acquired in exchange for Ryan Pressly from Houston. He comes from an organization with good developmental traits and is now in one that represents a similar level of execution. Starting didn’t work out well for Alcala this season, but since moving to relief he had a 0.98 ERA and .479 OPS against in 18.1 IP. The 18/4 K/BB is indicative of a guy that should rack up strikeouts, and his promotion to the big leagues during a Postseason run suggests that Minnesota sees him as a future difference maker as well.

The downside here is that Alcala is already 24 and he appears to be destined for the pen. While the opportunity to become a substantial asset for the Twins is real, the upside in the card collecting community is all but nullified. Josh Hader is one of the best arms on the planet, but his cardboard will never be at a premium because of the market and position he finds himself in. Alcala’s ink should be affordable and that will make him fun to collect, but this isn’t a guy that’s going to appreciate substantially.

When fan favorite Eduardo Escobar was traded the clubhouse went pretty sour. He found out on TV first, and it was among the initial moves that had the Twins parting out pieces as sellers. Duran headlined the return and has looked the part of a solid starting arm since coming over to Minnesota. He’s not a top 100 prospect and finds himself in the middle of the Twins top 10, but that doesn’t negate the production we’ve seen.

Still just 21-years-old, Duran reached Double-A Pensacola during 2019. His 3.76 ERA across two levels is plenty respectable, but the 10.6 K/9 is what jumps off the page. He can push it into the upper 90’s and sits comfortably in the mid-90’s. Homers have never been an issue for him, and we’ll see how that changes with the live ball at Triple-A and the big leagues, but this is an arm that could make its way into the Minnesota rotation by next year.

There isn’t ace-type upside here, and he too will have the designation of playing for the Twins, but a mid-rotation starter with upside is a pretty good bet. Duran would need to go on some sort of hot stretch or have a record setting year to vault himself into significant hobby-lore, but the ability for a short burst jump is certainly there. Another guy that should have very affordable autographs, he’s someone that you could see slight gains following a strong showing immediately after his promotion. More baseball good than hobby good, upside does have a bit of presence with him.

Make sure to check out 2019 Bowman Chrome at your local hobby shops when it drops on September 18. Along with these prospects, Minnesota has a few rookie autograph offerings as well as one of Nelson Cruz’s few depictions in a Twins uniform.

Boomstick Became More than a Nickname for Cruz

Listen, Nelson Cruz earned the moniker “Boomstick” because he’s become one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball. While most nicknames are rooted in some level of fact, Mr. Boomstick may never have expected the output he’s seeing as a 39-year-old with the Minnesota Twins. The home runs continue to pile up, but he’s pulverizing the leather more than he has ever done before.

Plenty has been made about the baseball in play during the 2019 Major League Baseball season. It’s obvious that changes to the ball itself have been made, and we’re seeing homers at a higher rate than at any point since the PED era. For power hitters like Cruz, an already perfected ability has become that much more lethal. If we’re going to truly understand the difference though, it’s only sensible to dive into the numbers.

37.6%. That’s the career hard hit rate for Nelson Cruz. He didn’t become a full-time big leaguer until 2009 at the age of 28. From that point through the next eight years, he owned a hard-hit rate that fluctuated between 35-38%. As a power hitter who elevated that ball, that output would certainly be capable of sending the ball over the fence. He posted three different 40-homer seasons and compiled a tally of 262. Fighting father time, Cruz had to figure out how to expand upon the ability that had carried him thus far.

2016 was the last time Cruz played more than five games at a position in a season (he’ll play none in the field this year). Solely operating as a designated hitter, perfecting his craft with a wooden stick became the only goal. Maybe not coincidentally, the quality of contact also began to rise. No longer standing in the outfield for nine innings, and able to unleash effort in short bursts, Cruz touched a 40% (40.7%) hard hit rate for the first time in 2017. He then followed that up with a 42.3% hard hit rate. Continuing to elevate the ball with higher exit velocities, the homers kept coming.

Then 2019 happened.

For the Twins Cruz has posted a ridiculous 55.3% hard hit rate, a career low 36.6% ground ball rate, and turned in an asinine 34% HR/FB rate. Literally more than one-third of the time Nelson Cruz puts the ball in play, and it doesn’t touch the ground, it leaves the stadium. His hard-hit rate is nearly 5% higher than the next closest batter and he’s pacing baseball in HR/FB ratio. On Statcast’s leaderboards he owns the best Brls/PA% in the sport (13.7 with 2^nd at 12.2), and trails only Aaron Judge in average exit velocity (94.5 mph).

Minnesota had an opening in the DH role going into this year, and they turned from an OBP centric lineup to one that could change the game on a single swing. Cruz was an ideal fit, and after turning down a shot with the Tampa Bay Rays, he landed in Minnesota on a 2yr/$26MM pact. That second season is a $12MM team option that the Twins will gladly pick up (and have Cruz on a discount from year one). It’s been one of the most successful free agent acquisitions in organization history, and the next chapters are still yet to be written.

At 36-years-old Nelson Cruz became a full-time designated hitter. At 39-years-old he produced what could be the best OPS of his career, a .662 SLG and what has a shot to be a new high-water mark in homers. Cruz has played in just 90 games for Minnesota (dealing with two stints of wrist issues), but his 33 dingers translate to a 59 per 162 tally. The man got older, got more specialized, and turned into a Rawlings’ greatest nightmare.

Old Dude Still Rakes: Nelson Cruz Edition

This winter two free agents jumped out at me as being obvious fits for this Minnesota Twins team. Marwin Gonzalez with his positional flexibility and Nelson Cruz for his big bat seemed like perfect fits for a lineup needing to fill some holes. Despite Cruz getting up there in age, he hadn’t shown any signs of slowing down and the only question was whether that would carry over into 2019. Now beyond the halfway point I think we have all the answers necessary.

After a National League swing in early April a handful of Twins fans popped up questioning whether the long-time designated hitter still had it. Through the first game of an April 20^th doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles Cruz owns a .268/.412/.415 slash line. He’d hit just one home run and wasn’t looking like the guy that blasts 30 dingers with ease. If the 17-game sample size wasn’t enough to suggest it was too soon, then the four-hit nightcap that day should have been. After game two of the doubleheader Minnesota’s DH owned a .326/.446/.609 line and the rest may be history.

With 78 games under his belt the newly turned 39-year-old has posted a .980 OPS for the Twins. That’s the best mark over any full season in his career. Slugging over .600 for the first time he’s got a career high there as well, and the .375 OBP is even with his high-water mark set in 2017 with the Seattle Mariners.

ZiPS projected Cruz to post an .848 OPS in 2019 and saw him hitting 30 home runs. While the slash line will remain in flux through the end of the season, he’s already at 26 and is tracking towards 40 long balls for the fourth time in his career, and first since 2016. Obviously, the golf ball-esque baseball doesn’t hurt anything for a big-time power hitter, but Cruz is still doing plenty of this on his own.

You don’t have to search far to find Nelson’s name on hard hit leaderboards. His 12.3 barrels per plate appearance are second in baseball behind only the Yankees Gary Sanchez. His 94.2 mph average exit velocity trails only Aaron Judge and his 54.4% hard hit rate is the best in the sport. Roughly one-third of the balls he puts in the air leave the yard, and a good portion of them seem to go into orbit. If there was an expected decline to come, Cruz himself seemed to miss the memo.

Looking at the body of work really isn’t to suggest this is uncharted territory for Cruz, he’s had better seasons. In 2015 and 2016 with the Mariners he combined to post a total of 9.4 fWAR. It’s fair to assume production would slow as you age, but this is going to be a better year than he had as a All Star for the 6^th time last season and could conceivably reach a 4.0 fWAR baseline.

The Twins got Cruz for $250k less than the Mariners paid him a season ago, and the $12MM option in 2020 looks like a forgone conclusion at this point. He’ll be 40 next July and if we can take performance in this campaign as any indicator, the only thing going over the hill will be a boatload of bombas.

Taking the Twins Temperature

Coming off a week in which the Minnesota Twins faced a schedule akin to death itself, we can’t describe a 4-3 record as anything short of exceptional. The Houston Astros look the part of a World Series champion, and while the New York Yankees aren’t close to full strength, they’re holding serve in the AL East. For Rocco Baldelli’s club, there’s plenty of positive momentum, and rather than focus on one specific area, now seemed like a good time to highlight some standouts.

Byron Buxton is currently cruising. He has 14 doubles which is the amount of hits he tallied in total during 2018. Offensively he’s posted an .805 OPS which is well north of the average among big league centerfielders, and he’s pacing the defensive leaderboards. Buxton is first in outs above average, is the only player with two completed five star catches and has accumulated 3 DRS across just 247 innings. Without a significant dip taking place over the course of a full season, this is production that will have him earning MVP votes.

For some reason there was some concern about Nelson Cruz in the early going. With the layout of Minnesota’s schedule, and early interleague play, he missed plenty of at bats to get going. Now 28 games into his season, he owns a .972 OPS (best mark since 2008) and is on pace for 35 homers. Also sitting fourth in average exit velocity among big league hitters, the boomstick is just fine.

The roster continues to be paced by two players at some of the most important positions. Jorge Polanco leads the club in fWAR, while Jose Berrios is tops for pitchers. Polanco’s bat has played exceptionally well, which has always been expected. The .393 wOBA is just outside the top 20 in baseball, but the best part is the peripheral numbers suggest a level of sustainability. Add in that Polanco is now providing plus value at short, and you’ve got a strong asset. Berrios has turned from staff ace into a bonafide big deal. Command has been ramped up a notch halving his walk rate, and the WHIP is beyond fantastic. If Jose wants to push even higher, limiting the longball is maybe the last piece of the puzzle.

You may not find a bigger believer in the Twins blogosphere when it comes to Mitch Garver. His offensive profile has long looked the part of a big leaguer. As a receiver and defender behind the plate, there’s been concerns as to whether the position would be a long-term fit. Although not yet above average, he’s upped his strike rate over 4% this season. Mitch has also developed a much stronger presence at the bottom and edges of the zone, while addressing his blocking ability in a big way. Right now, it seems fair to wonder about his fit as the long-term solution.

I recently wrote about Martin Perez and the development of his cutter. He introduced a new offering into his repertoire and now looks like an entirely new pitcher. Minnesota targeted him based on the feeling that his stuff could be tweaked to unleash ability yet to be harnessed and there’s no denying that the front office looks spot on in that thinking.

There are still some question marks in the bullpen, but the trio of Taylor Rogers, Trevor Hildenberger, and Blake Parker looks to be a good one. Trevor May continues to settle into a higher leverage role and Ryne Harper appears to be a diamond in the rough. If acquisitions are yet to be made, it’s here that the most obvious avenue for an upgrade is. Give some credit to Baldelli in the way he’s managed this group as well. Despite more length from his starters, initial burnout could be attributed in some degree to his deployment of the arms. In backing off and being more strategic, there’s been no instances of taxed throwers during a consistent stretch of action.

Looking at the schedule, the Twins have played a lot of good teams early. With so much action within the division still ahead of them, and some less than ideal road destinations out of the way, the remaining action tilts in their favor. Leading the AL Central at the end of April won’t vault Minnesota to the Postseason, but it keeps that possibility centrally focused ahead of them. This team is good, and I felt like I was out on a limb suggesting92 wins. At this point, coming up shy of that would probably be a disappointment.

Best Bets for the 2019 Twins

I’ve been waiting for this post all spring. It typically signifies that the season is just around the corner, and it’s always enjoyable to put something on the line when looking at what may lie ahead. Thanks to Bovada’s in depth odds offerings, we have a plethora of great Twins options to choose from. Looking back at the 2018 results things weren’t pretty. Thanks to a duo of underperformers and some bad luck, not much went our way. New season, new opportunity, let’s try to rectify that.

To provide some context for my thought process going into this, make sure you’re aware I have the Twins winning 92 games and taking the AL Central this year. If I’m going to be of that belief, I’ll need producers to back the potential reality. This obviously does leave positive-trending bets open to being exposed, but it also serves as a foundation for them being placed.

Jonathan Schoop O/U 22.5 HR

Minnesota quickly turned the page on Brian Dozier by targeting Schoop early this offseason. After the Brewers decided to non-tender him, the Twins scooped in and inked a new second basemen to a $7.5 million deal. 2018 was not kind to Schoop, and after being a first-time All Star in 2017, he plummeted to a .682 OPS. Obviously, the Minnesota front office is projecting a rebound for him in 2019, and the track record suggests that’s a fair assumption. Even while scuffling last year Schoop still parked 21 longballs, and that’s noteworthy. Yes, 17 of them came at Camden Yards, and yes, he hit just four in Miller Park, but this is a bet I’ll gladly make.

Over 22.5 HRs 3*

Eddie Rosario O/U 24.5 HR

Last season I took the under on this exact same bet, and Rosario hit 24 on the button. The left fielder swatted 27 back in 2017 and getting back towards that number seems like a fair bet. Rosario played in just 138 games last season and regressed a bit when it comes to plate discipline. After making strides for the 2017 season, he got back up to a 42.9% chase rate, and whiffed 12.7% of the time. Hopefully he can push those numbers back towards the 2017 marks and utilize a full season to generate complete production. I feel like Eddie is close to a finished product at this point, which makes this number seem like such a coin toss.

Over 24.5 HRs 2*

Jose Berrios O/U 190.5 K

During the 2018 campaign Minnesota’s ace tallied 202 strikeouts. He turned in four starts in which he reached double digits, but none of them came after June 24. On top of that, Berrios struck out five or less batters in 11 (of his 32) starts. The young Puerto Rican has the stuff to be among the games best, and a more consistent statistical output could elevate his overall impact. The double-digit games will still come but avoiding lumps in 2019 should make a dramatic impact as well. I like Berrios as a dark horse for the AL Cy Young (you can get him at 25/1), so I’d need to lean towards year-over-year improvement.

Over 190.5 K 2*

Jose Berrios O/U 12 W

This is another copycat bet from the 2018 season, and Berrios pushed on that number. In 32 starts he drew just 23 decisions and nearly posted a .500 record. This Twins club should be better than that one, and while pitching remains an unknown, there’s no denying who the ace of the staff is. Barring injury, Berrios will get the most turns, and this lineup should have no problem supporting good outings.

Over 12 W 3*

Nelson Cruz O/U 33.5 HR

When Derek Falvey went out and signed Cruz, he got the most prolific power hitter on the open market. No one has more dingers than Cruz since the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and he did all that work in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field. Target Field’s left field line will be a welcomed site for the Dominican slugger, and it you though Brian Dozier was pull happy to the bleachers, well just get ready. Cruz is 38, and while father time is undefeated, give me the reliance on his power for the heart of this lineup. He hasn’t hit less than 37 taters since 2013 and he played in just 109 games at that point still working into regular playing time.

Over 33.5 HR 4*

Minnesota Twins O/U 84.5 W

The expectation of this bet should be obvious; I started this piece off suggesting 92 victories for Rocco Baldelli’s first season at the helm. Minnesota entered the 2018 season with an O/U like this mark, and it’s only because of the poor year that the number didn’t rise. Sure, the Twins should’ve done more to address their pitching. That said, Cleveland got worse, the White Sox aren’t yet ready, and the doldrums of the division are a dumpster fire. Indicative more of the small payout and long wait, the risk is simply to get skin in the game.

Over 84.5 W 1*

Bring on the Boomstick

With the Winter Meetings well underway, signings and reports are flying in from every direction. The Minnesota Twins made their initial splash with the acquisitions of Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes. Now having the middle infield gaps covered, some thump in the lineup can be addressed. Rocco Baldelli’s projected starters have plenty of power at their disposal, but none look the part of true on-base threats. Nelson Cruz would change that.

On Tuesday evening Hector Gomez reported that the two teams left vying for the services of the former Seattle Mariners DH are the Twins and Tampa Bay Rays. Cruz hits the market as a 38-year-old that will be playing 2019 at the age of 39. Despite nearing his forties, there doesn’t yet appear to be much slowdown in terms of production. During 2018 with Seattle, Cruz watched his average dip to .256 (a career low), but it was bolstered by an .850 OPS and 37 homers.

There wasn’t ever a point in his career that Cruz was an ideal outfielder, but at this stage in the game he’s become a full time DH. Luckily with the Twins, there’s no need for him to ever be inserted into the outfield. On the premise of his bat alone, Cruz is among the most intriguing names for Minnesota to consider offensively. Dating back to 2014, he’s hit no less than 37 longballs, and he’s had a .356 OBP over that stretch.

Right now, Jorge Polanco looks destined to be the leadoff hitter for Baldelli, and some combination of Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, and Eddie Rosario will fill out the top half of the lineup. That group has plenty of ability to lose balls in the seats, but Polanco’s .325 OBP over the past two seasons paces them. As baseball has trended towards the launch angle revolution, and adaptation for power, a remaining necessity to get on base is ever present. Even if everything breaks right from a homer standpoint for the current Twins group, there stands a reasonable expectation that many of them could be hollow, solo shots.

It’s not just on-base skills that make Cruz an ideal candidate to join the Twins clubhouse, however. As a veteran who has not bounced around, he’s been someone that no doubt displays a certain presence within the clubhouse. Minnesota has been big on veteran leadership surrounding their young and upcoming stars in recent years, but that role has often been filled with aging players offering little value (Torii Hunter, Matt Belisle, etc.). In Cruz, Baldelli gets a Spanish speaking veteran than can lead by example for many of the impressionable minds he’s looking to mold. Doing so by example on and off the field must have a bit more merit.

There’s little doubt that Cruz is approaching the end of his time as a professional ballplayer. Whether that means three years or five years, age always wins out. At this point in time there isn’t much reason to believe the production will dip, and that should calm any fears of agreeing to a one- or two-year deal. He’ll get paid a hefty sum, but with the open cash flow that the organization has, there will still be plenty of dollars to allocate towards pitching.

Whether this pact gets done while the Twins contingent is in Las Vegas or not remains to be seen, but it would be hard to swallow a scenario in which Minnesota was just “in the hunt” again. There’s not going to be a long-term commitment here, and the dollars won’t be a showstopper. There’s a serious fit from multiple angles, and a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should be adamant about.