Solving the Twins Opening Day Riddle

 

In 2021 the Minnesota Twins are going to have a new starting shortstop. Despite being delayed to camp, Andrelton Simmons will assume that role shortly. What happens behind him remains a question, but the Riddle could actually be the solution.

 

Alright, enough with the puns, sorry about that. Andrelton Simmons is as clear of a defensive upgrade as it gets. Even if Minnesota employed someone other than a below-average Jorge Polanco as short in recent seasons, Simba as he’s known, has won a Platinum Glove. Despite being in on Marcus Semien (who’s also a defensive upgrade), it’s clear prioritizing defense was a goal. Now with Simmons, the Twins have arguably the best defensive left-side of the infield in all of baseball. The man needs days off, though right.

 

Simmons opted out of 2020 after an injury, and he played in just 103 games the year before that. Even when he’s played in 145-plus, there’s still days he’ll need a break. A year ago, that may have fallen on the shoulders of Ehire Adrianza (as Marwin Gonzalez is not a good defender at short). In 2021 the options are less clear. Do you cloudy the transition for Polanco by moving him there intermittently? What about new utility man Luis Arraez filling in out of position? Right now, that’s where the options cease when it comes to clear Opening Day roster candidates.

 

Enter J.T. Riddle.

 

The former Marlin and Pirate is not much to speak of at the plate. He owns a career OPS of just .616 and the minor league track record doesn’t suggest a breakout at age-29. What he can do however, is field. In just under 700 innings at short for the Marlins a few year ago, he was worth 12 DRS. That defensive ability is something only Simmons possesses among the Twins logical candidates. Welcome to your inside track sir.

 

Whether you assume Alex Kirilloff is the Twins Opening Day left fielder or not (he should be, and his outlook just got better), at worst that makes Arraez a utility player. Adding another outfielder to the bench could be an avenue, and a third catcher has been a preference in recent seasons. Jake Cave could still fit depending on the pitching configuration, and regardless of the flexibility, Willians Astudillo is redundant.

 

Penciling in Riddle with a Major League roster spot is hardly ideal. There are only 26 openings and there’s better talents. His effectiveness as a true shortstop could present him an edge though. The front office brought in Andrew Romine as a camp option for short with Simmons lagging behind. Maybe Riddle is seen with more of a future than just a ticket to Triple-A St. Paul. Nick Gordon isn’t viewed as a shortstop anymore, and even a healthy Royce Lewis wasn’t going to back up a big-league position. Even the best teams have guys that play a small but significant role, maybe this one is for J.T.

 

I don’t know that I love it, and I’m obviously not certain it will happen, but I think there’s a pathway to get there and one that makes logical sense.

Twins Holding Serve Spells Success

 

Yesterday the Minnesota Twins inked Matt Shoemaker to a one-year deal worth $2 million. He’ll be the favorite to fill out the starting rotation and likely puts a bow on a strong offseason. Without flash, it’s still exactly what was needed.

 

When looking at free agency it’s often the big signings or high-ticket players that draw all the fanfare. For a team like the Twins though, expectations have to be viewed through the lens of what is necessary. This isn’t to suggest teams shouldn’t spend money, or give them a pass for not doing so, but expecting good clubs to get exponentially better is a fool’s errand. Minnesota didn’t rock the boat, but they did more than necessary to three-peat as AL Central division winners.

 

Coming off two seasons with an average winning percentage of .600, the goal for 2021 should be to again make the Postseason and then make noise once you get there. Sure, the futility in the playoffs has been mind-boggling, but it’s ultimately not predictive of any future results. You’re dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, and while added together they look poor, viewed separately as they should be, they don’t indicate much.

 

The Twins won the division in 2020, just like they did in 2019. It wasn’t on them to go out and make up ground this offseason. They needed to replace a couple of bullpen arms and look to bolster their starting rotation. Short of signing Trevor Bauer, there was never a path for them to have an offseason quite like the Chicago White Sox or San Diego Padres. The former was a third-place team chasing down the hometown nine, and the latter is a club rich in prospects looking to make up ground between themselves and the World Series winners.

 

Obviously, there is any amount of talent that can be acquired to raise the water level for a 26-man roster. The Padres and White Sox are better positioned for 2021 than they were because of the talent they brought in. Both clubs had a need to make up a gap though. The Dodgers are spending a boatload of cash to run it back, with the one addition of the aforementioned Bauer. That’s a big splash, but one that only impacts a single roster spot.

 

With pitchers and catchers set to embark upon Fort Myers in the coming days, Minnesota has to be considered the divisional favorite. Then it’s on players like Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver to step up. Should the team fare as expected through the first half, betting on reinforcements being acquired at the deadline is also a good assumption. What it all boils down to is that World Series titles, and even Postseason victories, aren’t achieved in the offseason. The size of a winter splash doesn’t ultimately predict much in the way of October success.

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made their big splash last offseason in the form of Josh Donaldson. They targeted a defensive upgrade that was otherwise unnecessary in Andrelton Simmons this time around, and his impact will be felt more on the diamond than it’s gotten credit on paper. Minnesota already was good and should’ve been expected to be so again in 2021. They then raised the water level ever so slightly, and here we are ready to go with a club that again will turn heads.

Simba Brings Defensive Pride to Minnesota

 

All offseason I’ve been preaching that patience should be exhibited in regards to the Minnesota Twins. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have earned the benefit of doubt and shown that they are sound decision makers. Tonight, that came to fruition.

 

After *missing* out on Marcus Semien as one of the interested parties, they quickly pivoted to the best defender in this free agent class. Andrelton Simmons, formerly of the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Angels, the Platinum Glove defender makes a tandem of sorts with Byron Buxton. He’s been worth 191 defensive runs saved over the course of his career. Paired with Josh Donaldson on the left side of Minnesota’s infield, opposing batters will face a black hole.

 

As important as signing Simmons is, it’s also what the acquisition does for the roster construction of the Twins that makes a bigger splash. Jorge Polanco has been miscast as a shortstop for the entirety of his big-league career. His range is limited, and the arm strength has been problematic. Moving him to second base, he brings an offensive prowess that the position is often void of, and he moves a career 121 OPS+ hitter in Luis Arraez to super utility. Minnesota satisfied two separate needs with this one decision.

 

Sure, it’s Polanco’s move to the other side of the diamond that will draw the immediate interest but being able to deploy Arraez all over the field is a great boost for Rocco Baldelli. The favorite to win a batting title can now spell guys on a regular basis, play corner outfield, and fill in at both second and third base. Arraez was initially mentioned as a trade chip to acquire pitching, and while I do still think the Twins flip players for another arm, this role seems to perfect of a fit for him to part with.

 

Now that there’s some roster certainty thanks to Simmons sorting out the infield, there should be little waiting for Minnesota when it comes to Nelson Cruz. The reunion has always seemed like a logical one, and the designated hitter has been reported as not being universal for the upcoming season.

 

We’ve waited all winter for moves to happen, and this Simmons signing feels like a dam breaking decision that gets the ball rolling in terms of locking everything else up. The Twins may look at holdovers on the relief market, but I’d hardly be shocked if their DH and starting pitching options aren’t decided upon quickly.

 

The White Sox raced out to start the offseason, and the Padres have taken plenty of the spotlight, but this is a move that puts Minnesota right back on top of the Central.

Shortstop, A Cry For Better Days

Heading into spring training, and throughout much of it, there was talk that the Twins standout rookie Danny Santana could be challenged or even removed from the shortstop role due to the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. At the time, it was crazy talk, and it still remains in that context. The Twins absolutely needed to allow their surprising rookie to validate his performance, but now that fact is that he simply hasn't. Heading into the heat of the summer, Minnesota has a very important decision to make.

Looking at the baseball field as a whole, two positions can lay claim to a higher importance in the field than most; centerfield and shortstop. Both roles act as a field general of sorts and typically are manned by some of the best athletes on the team. Minnesota finds itself in a position where its shortstop ranks amongst the leagues worst in several defensive categories, and is offering little value elsewhere to boot.

After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014). On the defensive side of the ball, he's made 11 errors (just two in 34 games at SS in 2014), is worth -10 DRS (defensive runs saved), and owns a -5.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). All totaled, Santana is currently worth -0.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) after posting a 3.3 value a season ago.

You absolutely had to expect a certain level of regression to hit Santana, his 2014 was otherwordly in context. What he's doing into 2015 however isn't regression. To put it simply, he's fallen off of a cliff. At this point, the Twins are nearing a crossroads where they must make a decision, and there's really only two options to consider. The first comes from within.

Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins in 2014, making the leap from Single-A Fort Myers. Over the course of five games, he got eight plate appearances and collected a double and triple for his only two hits. This season in Double-A Chattanooga, he's continued his hot streak. The every day SS for the loaded farm team, Polanco owns a .323/.355/.435 slash line. He's hit four home runs, driven in 24 RBI, walked 10 times, and struck out in 30 at bats. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength (or lack thereof), and being a better fielder is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).

Minnesota could take a long look at a Polanco for Santana swap sometime in the near future, but it may not rectify all of the issues. There's reason to believe Polanco could be a better hitter at the big league level, but he too could cede too many runs for the pitching staff's liking. That leads us to option number two, going outside of the organization.

Looking at what the Twins will do with promotions in 2015 and beyond, there's no shortage of logjams. From players like Polanco and Max Kepler, to pitchers like Stephen Gonslaves and Chih-Wei Hu, the Twins have plenty of other prospects not named Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Knowing that they may not be able to advance all of them through the system in it's current state, it may be time to deal some assets for immediate help.

Defensively, shortstop is a position that the Twins need to be sound. You probably need to go back to 2001 Cristian Guzman for a time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position. In going for a splash, the Twins could target a player like Andrelton Simmons to fill their vacancy. Not the aged All-Star that Troy Tulowitzki is, and potentially not commanding the same return that the Cubs Starlin Castro may require, Minnesota may find a match.

Undoubtedly, I'm not one to suggest trade scenarios, it's just not something I'm well versed in. That being said, Minnesota could be presented with pursuing that scenario on their own should they deem Polanco not the immediate answer. No matter what happens, the thing that remains most clear is that Danny Santana is not the option to roll with currently.

As the summer draws on and this team jostles for position, it will be in how the next few weeks play out that determine how the Twins position themselves for the stretch run.