The Twins Final 25

My first Minnesota Twins 25 man roster projection came out way back in January, the second version was then looked at in the middle of March. Now with Spring Training virtually over, it's time to get serious about who's coming north. It seems pretty clear who Minnesota will bring, but before the final announcement is made, I need to take one last shot.

The Twins still have just over 40 guys left in camp, and 10 of them are non-roster guys. A few of them have already been told they'll be reassigned to Rochester, so that helps with clarity a bit further. Given what we know, here's how I see the final 25 shaking out.

Rotation (5)

• Ervin Santana
• Hector Santiago
• Kyle Gibson
• Phil Hughes
• Tyler Duffey

Paul Molitor recently told Mike Berardino that Santiago would start game 2 behind Santana, with Gibson to follow. That means Hughes gets the fourth game of the year and the fifth starter makes their debut against the White Sox. While the 5th starter could have been Trevor May or Adalberto Mejia, it's Tyler Duffey who has had a spring worthy of holding onto the job. I still think long term he profiles best in the pen, but to start 2017, this is where he begins.

Starting Lineup (9)

• Jason Castro C
• Joe Mauer 1B
• Brian Dozier 2B
• Jorge Polanco SS
• Miguel Sano 3B
• Eddie Rosario LF
• Byron Buxton CF
• Max Kepler RF
• ByungHo Park DH

No changes here from roster projection 2.0. Kennys Vargas was given the opportunity to win the DH spot and simply fell short. He went to the WBC, didn't play, and then got hurt when he returned. I remain skeptical Vargas is a productive big leaguer, and while the injury gives Minnesota something to pin it on, the reality is that Park is simply the better DH option.

If there's something of intrigue here, it's that Eddie Rosario put together a really nice WBC and spring in general. He's expanding the zone just a bit less, and looks locked in defensively. If he can bring back some of the magic from his rookie season, the Twins stand to benefit big time.

Bench (4)

• Eduardo Escobar
• Robbie Grossman
• Chris Gimenez
• Danny Santana

Much remains the same here from the roster projection earlier this month. Drew Stubbs failed to capitalize on his opportunity to take Grossman's spot and has been released. The biggest difference is the inclusion of Danny Santana.

The final bench spot should've (and likely would've) been Ehire Adrianza's. A strained oblique late in spring training is going to have him open the season on the DL, and that likely saves Santana from the DFA that was looming. I don't see him as a productive big leaguer, he plays poor defense everywhere and struggles with the bat, but he's going to get a couple weeks to prove it.

Bullpen (7)

• Brandon Kitnzler Closer
• Ryan Pressly Setup
• Matt Belisle
• Justin Haley
• Craig Breslow
• Taylor Rogers
• Alex Wimmers

The bullpen has seen a little bit of a shakeup since earlier this month. Chargois was optioned to Triple-A, and while it would've been nice to see him make the big league club, the reality was that a shaky spring did him in. I expect him to grab saves for Minnesota at some point in 2017, but he'll start the year on the farm.

Taking the place of Chargois comes down to a two man race between Michael Tonkin and Alex Wimmers. The former is out of options and likely wouldn't pass through waivers, but his spring hasn't been indicative of a guy the Twins can rely on. Coming back on a minor league deal, Wimmers has been solid enough in the limited spring action, and could offer some value in middle relief. His velocity has seen a spike since moving to the pen, he has been a better pitcher. It remains a tossup as to what the Twins do there, but Tonkin may have used his last chance.

Twins In For An Overhaul

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected.

Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead.

First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot:

Craig Breslow- RP

When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief.
Chance he makes the club: 85%

Ryan Vogelsong- SP

Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated.
Chance he make the club: 80%

Chris Gimenez- C

Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop.
Chance he makes the club: 95%

ByungHo Park- DH

Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in.
Chance he makes the club: 60%

Drew Stubbs- OF

Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well.
Chance he makes the club: 10%

With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives?

Trevor May- P

This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 100%

Buddy Boshers- RP

Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold.
Removed from 40 man: 50%

Ryan O'Rourke- RP

First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy.
Removed from 40 man: 51%

Glen Perkins- RP

At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 25%

Michael Tonkin- RP

Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material.
Removed from 40 man: 60%

Danny Santana- Util

This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options.
Removed from 40 man: 90%

Robbie Grossman- OF

Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere.
Removed from 40 man:10%

With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them.

What To Make Of The Twins Utility Scenario

Going into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, it stands to reason that the Minnesota Twins will more than likely employ a similar 25 man roster construction. That means there'd be places for 12 pitchers and 13 position players. Given in are in the starting lineup, the four vying to fill out the bench provide some questions for Paul Molitor and his club.

Two of those bench spots are immediately claimed by the backup catcher (see Mitch Garver, John Ryan Murphy, or Chris Gimenez) and a fourth outfielder (Robbie Grossman or Eddie Rosario). With just two openings left, the Twins need to incorporate a defensive focus, some sort of base running threat, and realistically cannot ignore offensive production completely. Utility men would be great fits for either of those spots, but unfortunately for Minnesota, they have three players in the mix.

Danny Santana probably comes to mind first. He burst onto the scene thanks in large part to a mirage of a rookie season. His BABIP created unrealistic watermarks, and his career has spiraled since. Although he's played the most positions of the possible options, he occupies no ground on the field while being a positive defensive asset. I took a deeper dive into what Santana brings to the table in this piece, but right now he has to be the odd man out. Although Minnesota obviously appreciates his flexibility, it stands to reason his level of asset is simply the lowest.

That brings us to Eduardo Escobar. From 2014-2015, Escobar played in 260 games for the Twins owning a .737 OPS at the dish. While his OBP (.312) left something to be desired, he showed a little pop with his 18 homers, and was of value offensively. In the field, Escobar spent the majority of his time at shortstop, and went from -6 DRS in 2014 to +2 DRS in 2015. He's never completely sold us on the part that he's an every day player, but as a utility man that profiles at short and can play two other infield spots, it looked to make sense.

Last season however, Escobar through a wrench into his future with what was a significant step backwards. His OPS plummeted to a paltry .618, and he totaled -7 DRS in 579 innings at short. No longer a defensive or offensive asset, Escobar had simply become a below replacement level player. On a new arbitration contract with the Twins this season though, it appears the club is banking on that being an outlier, and it's probably a decent bet.

Rounding out the trio is the recently acquired Ehire Adrianza. Coming over from the San Francisco Giants (and briefly, the Milwaukee Brewers), Adrianza is virtually all glove. Despite the small sample size, he's regarded in the Andrelton Simmons level of leather at shortstop, and that's something that the Twins simply don't have anywhere on their roster. Given the likelihood that Jorge Polanco struggles defensively, Adrianza would stand to look otherworldly in the field.

With the bat, Adrianza owns just a .605 career OPS and is coming off his best season in which he totaled a .679 OPS in 40 games with the Giants. He has just 17 extra base hits in 154 big league games, and gap power is something that will likely always elude him. Down at Triple-A though, Adrianza has compiled an .822 OPS in just over 100 games being virtually the same singles hitter. He has speed, although he doesn't typically steal a ton of bases, and that can probably play on both sides of the ball.

For Molitor and the Twins, the decision likely comes down to whether or not they can handle a glove only bench player. Escobar, despite his poor 2016, should be a lock, and that leaves it a competition between Santana and Adrianza. The former can stand at multiple positions but play none, while the latter plays infield spectacularly but can't hit a lick.

As noted above, with question marks already surrounding Polanco's ability to cope at short, Adrianza seems like an ideal fit. Minnesota was beaten badly around the ballyard a season ago in large part due to poor defense. Having such an asset ready and waiting off the bench seems to make a lot of sense. Expect this to be sorted out as Spring Training draws on down in Fort Myers.

Twins In The Business Of Sending Messages

Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.

As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.

In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.

With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.

Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.

A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.

Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.

At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.

Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.

Improving The Twins 25th Man

It's often said that you're only as good as your weakest link. In sports, this proves vital when a team makes a playoff run, and every outcome matters. For the 2017 Minnesota Twins, a playoff run seems a bit lofty, but the club could look to vault themselves forward by upping the production from the bottom of their roster.

Given that a big league baseball team is able to deploy 25 players at any given time, the roster remains in flux throughout the majority of the season. For the Minnesota Twins though, one player that could be improved upon prior to leaving Spring Training in Fort Myers is super utility man Danny Santana.

Describing Santana as a super utility player may be also highlighting his greatest asset to the club. The idea that he can play all over is really where the benefits stop, because in reality, his roster spot causes extreme pause. Since his inflated .405 BABIP rookie season, Santana has slashed .227/.259/.308 in 166 major league games the past two years. He's contributed just 29 extra base hits, and his 123/18 K/BB ratio is anything but ideal.

Then there's that idea that Santana is some sort of a utility player capable of playing all over the diamond. Defensive metrics are a fickle beast, but across the board, none of them are kind to Santana. In 2016 alone, Santana was worth -8 DRS combining six different positions. In 2015, the former shortstop was worth -15 DRS proving to be an extreme liability in the infield. Thus far defensively, Santana has shown he doesn't have the chops to play center or short, and he's miscast as a body virtually everywhere else.

Looking at what Santana provides at the plate, the Twins should see a lot to be desired as well. He owns nearly a 12% career swinging strike rate that has elevated the past two seasons. He chases pitches out of the zone 40% of the time, and he makes hard contact just over a quarter of the time. To summarize, Santana isn't a fit in the field, doesn't carry a big bat, and is really a theoretical asset.

So, what do the Twins do to address the issue?

What it comes down to for Minnesota and Paul Molitor, is whether or not they can get over the idea that Santana provides value where he doesn't. Is it beneficial to have a player on the bench that can simply step up to the plate and occupy a fielding position, or is there someone who can push the envelop a bit further? Minnesota may not have an immediate utility bench type outside of Eduardo Escobar, but they could push the overall roster talent upwards by having more of a sure thing.

It's interesting that the organization decided to DFA Byungho Park prior to considering Danny Santana. While it may have been a lot to ask for the Twins to carry Park, Kennys Vargas, and Joe Mauer all on the big league roster, exposing Byungho to waivers first doesn't seem like the best bet. There's not a ton of veteran options in Minnesota's camp, but using Fort Myers as a proving ground to find a Santana replacement really should be a must.

Zach Granite may only be able to play the outfield, and Engelb Vielma may not hit at all, but players like those have true assets in one category or another. If the Twins can find someone to bring any real value on either side of the ball, moving on from Danny Santana (out of options and all) may not be a bad thing.

Two Twins On The Outside Looking In

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins haven't done much to add to a club that lost a franchise worst 103 games a season ago. While a rebuild seems logical, and a new front office has been installed, it's hard to fault the organization for taking a wait and see approach. Offensively this club isn't in a bad place, and while pitching is an issue, it shouldn't be historically bad again. However, looking at the potential 25 man roster, there's two former prospects that could be on the outside looking in.

First as primarily an outfielder, and maybe more egregiously a super utility player, Danny Santana comes to mind. At 26 years old, he's hardly a kid anymore, and the BABIP inflated rookie debut seems like a distant memory. After slashing .319/.353/.472 in 2014, he's combined to slash a paltry .227/.259/.308 over 166 games the past two seasons. What started out as a nice outfield emergence has turned into a player with a ton of question marks.

Arguably the largest feather in Santana's cap is that he's out of options. Minnesota can no longer hope he works on things in Rochester, and any trip to Triple-A would require him to pass through waivers unclaimed (unlikely). At the big league level though, it's hard to find value outside of a guy that can simply occupy space. Defensively, Santana has been nothing short of underwhelming. He was worth -15 DRS at SS in 2015 prior to losing the job, and he cost the Twins -9 DRS in the outfield over 63 games a season ago. With an already suspect pitching staff, poor defense isn't an ideal pairing.

At the plate, Santana's swinging strike rate has increased yearly, and it's been in tandem with a declining contact number. He's a guy that relies on his speed to stretch bases, although he's not much of a base stealer either. Walking less than 4% of the time over the course of his career, his plate approach leaves plenty to be desired and doesn't give him an ideal lineup spot.

In short, Santana is a guy that the Twins could absolutely carry as a 25th man out of fear that he's plucked on waivers. Most organizations have someone similar to Santana, but as a reclamation project in a more defined role on a decent club, he could have value. In keeping Santana however, the Twins would be failing to capitalize on an opportunity to stretch the upside at the back end of their 25 man roster. A player like Santana isn't the difference in contending, but he represents an area where a known commodity can be replaced with higher-ceiling talent.

That brings us to another Twin that had a bit more prospect steam going for him, Kennys Vargas. A year ago, Vargas posted an .833 OPS, but it was almost solely carried by 18 games in the middle of the summer. Joining Minnesota on July 4, Vargas slashed .333/.446/.683 through July 31. In that span he mashed four homers while drawing 13 walks to go with his 18 strikeouts. If Paul Molitor could get anything close to that consistently he'd have to be elated. Vargas then played just 29 more games for Minnesota slashing .163/.252/.380 with six homers and a 39/11 strikeout to walk ratio.

A power guy that has failed to command the zone, Minnesota has demoted Vargas previously for his lack of home run production. He was granted another option year this season, and that stands to weigh heavily in the Twins decision making during roster crunch time.

Things were a bit more encouraging for Vargas a season ago. he hits the ball hard, and his 40% hard hit rate was the best of his career. He also decreased his swinging strike number to just under 12% and posted a rising contact rate. The unfortunate reality though is that Vargas owns a career contact number of just 71.8%. For a guy his size, and making contact less frequently, you'd absolutely expect to see more balls leave the yard.

Defensively, Vargas is far from a black hole. In 32 games he posted just -1 DRS and was serviceable more often than not. He's far from the Gold Glove caliber defense that Joe Mauer has developed at first base, but as a secondary option, he's better than passable. Given that the Twins have a glut of designated hitter types, Vargas will always have to bring his mitt to the yard if he wants to carve out regular playing time.

Quite possibly the biggest deterrent for Vargas' chances to make the Opening Day roster rest on the shoulders of Byungho Park. After being acquired by the previous regime, there's reason to wonder how both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former Korean Baseball Organization slugger. Coming back healthy after a wrist injury, I expect a nice turnaround year for Park, and his second season in the big leagues should overshadow his first. With Vargas able to start at Triple-A, it would make sense to reason that first base alongside Mauer, is Park's job to lose.

I'm not sold on either Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas being everyday big leaguers for the Minnesota Twins or otherwise. Of the two though, it's Santana that strikes me as less of a loss should he be jettisoned from the organization. There's always going to be appeal for power guys in today's game, and while Vargas profiles as such, I'm not sure there's been enough convincing done to suggest he can deliver just yet.

Does Minnesota Trust What's Next?

As the offseason rolls on for the Minnesota Twins, easily the biggest storyline thus far has been the potential trade of Brian Dozier. I believe it's a move they must make, and more a matter of when as opposed to if. In a potential Dozier transaction though, the Twins will be faced with an interesting decision. Do they trust the next man up?

In the particular scenario of second base, the next man up would be Jorge Polanco, who played out of position at shortstop a season ago. The reality for a rebuilding team with young pieces though, is which ones are actually difference makers going forward. It's not just Polanco that the new braintrust has to decide upon, but actually a few fringe types that are worth wondering about.

Giving each of them some individual analysis, here's my thoughts on how some of the Twins positional youth factors into their long term plans.

Jorge Polanco

The aforementioned Polanco is an immediate replacement for Brian Dozier at second. He's not the power hitter that Dozier has become, but he's also not a dead pull bat and can spray the ball to all fields. He profiles as a more typical top two hitter, and has the ability to generate extra base hits with his speed. In a 69 G sample size during 2016, Polanco split balls put in play between grounders, liners, and fly balls, to the tune of roughly one-third each. He swung out of the zone far too often (also one-third), but had a respectable 84% contact rate. An abysmal shortstop, he's just fine at second base. The bat has always carried belief, and the total package should be one the Twins feel good about.

Kennys Vargas

It's actually interesting that Vargas was granted another option year for 2017. Had he not been, he's someone I would have totally been ok with the Twins DFA'ing with the potential that he's lost on waivers. Try to get out from the fact that he has a similar stature to David Ortiz, and accept that he may just be a guy. Now with roughly a full season worth of big league action split between three years, Vargas has shown an inability to take walks (aside from his impressive showing down the 2016 stretch). He makes contact just north of 70% of the time, and you'd definitely like to see more of his fly balls leave the yard. Vargas carries an average first base glove at best, and I'm not sure you couldn't find another DH type with more upside.

Eddie Rosario

Admittedly I was all in on getting Eddie Rosario to the big leagues prior to the 2015 season. He looked like a difference maker, and actually proved to be as much picking up Rookie of the Year votes. What his league leading 15 triples and impressive 16 outfield assists in 2015 masked were some bigger issues however. As the triples faded, the OPS and SLG tumbled. Rosario tries to be a bad ball hitter, chasing more than 40% of the time, but he also has gotten worse with his swing and its tendencies (up over 15% in 2016). In the outfield, he went from an 11 DRS mark in 2015 to a 2 DRS mark a year ago. At times, you wonder whether or not it's an effort thing, but Rosario's approach also may be too much to overcome. Right now, he fits for the Twins, but I'd be all in on another option or packaging him in a trade.

Danny Santana

There's maybe nothing more for Danny Santana to be able to hang his big league hat on than his rookie year. An incredibly unsustainable .405 BABIP led to an inflated .319 AVG. In the two seasons since, Santana has gone on to slash an ugly .227/.259/.308. He doesn't have much of a defensive ability, and at the plate he has become little more than a man with a bat. If he's going to play outfield, I think I'd give Zach Granite a look instead. If you want him as an infielder, Engelb Vielma could possibly be the choice. Santana is out of options, and it seems inevitable he's DFA'd at some point. What started off great never looked real, but it's also unfortunate it fell this far apart as well.

John Ryan Murphy

Maybe an odd inclusion for this list, Murphy gets a look being only 25 years old. While he didn't come through the Twins system, there was some belief from the old regime in swapping Aaron Hicks for him. Having played 67 games for the Yankees in 2015 with an OPS of .734, it appeared he may have a solid hit tool for the Twins. As things went last year, Murphy played in just 26 big league games, was passed over for Juan Centeno, and owned just a .609 OPS in 83 Triple-A games. He's decent in working the running game, and an ok receiver, but he doesn't do anything incredibly well. At this point, having Murphy and Mitch Garver battle for backup duties out of the gate seems like a good plan of action. With Jason Castro around for the next three seasons, Murphy won't see real work anytime soon. That said, it's pretty realistic that he could slide behind the Twins internally developed Garver as well.

Do Twins Create A Utility Duo?

At different points during the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the talking point regarding Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar has came up. Both players present similar skillsets, and the likeliest scenario is a utility type position going forward. The question is though, do the Twins choose to roster both players a year from now, or is their only room for one Swiss Army Knife.

First, the less flexible of the two, Eduardo Escobar. While Escobar has made a home at shortstop, he's been passed up at different points this season by potentially more intriguing options. To start it was All Star Eduardo Nunez, and of recent it's been top prospect Jorge Polanco. When considering all possible options, Escobar can find his way into the lineup at third, short, and second base. Despite having played the outfield before, that time period has almost assuredly (and for good reason) come and gone.

In 2015, Escobar slashed .286/.350/.524 from August 1 through the remainder of the season. His .874 OPS was among the best for shortstops in the big leagues, and his eight long balls in that timeframe helped to give him a career best 12 on the season. In 2016, the results have been less, but the playing time has also been more sporadic. Across 70 games thus far, he's slashing .257/.283/.386 with just five home runs and 12 doubles. His .669 OPS is the lowest mark since 2013, his first full season with the Twins.

Defensively, Escobar has taken big steps backwards this season. After posting a 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR at SS in 627.1 innings last season, he owns a -7 DRS and a -4.3 UZR across 511.1 innings this season. He's logged just 10.0 combined innings at both third and second this season as well, meaning his positional flexibility is more in principle than reality.

At the end of the day, Escobar has taken a few steps backwards in more of a reserve role this season. He's been league average posting a 0.0 fWAR and has slipped each of the past two seasons (2.4 fWAR in 14, 1.5 fWAR in 15). Off of the bench though as a fill in player, it's hard to argue against him having done his job.

Then there's Danny Santana.

Santana is two years the junior to Escobar at 25. He's out of options, but looking to pass him through waivers hasn't really been a considered option at any point this season. His .261/.300/.357 line is a far cry from the .319/.353/.472 he posted in his rookie season, but with a BABIP in 2014 above .400, we knew that was never going to be sustainable.

You can definitely point to Santana's .657 OPS being less than ideal. After hitting seven homers in his first 101 MLB games, he's hit just two in his last 157. Across 207 at bats in 2016, Santana has only 14 extra base hits, and despite his prowess for speed, he's been caught stealing (9) nearly as often as he's stolen a base (12).

When finding Santana's greatest asset, there's little reason to look at anything but his ability to spell players all over the diamond. Over the course of the year, Paul Molitor has played Santana at eight different spots. Operating as the designated hitter on occasion, Santana has played every defensive position aside from first base and catcher.

The caveat to Santana's defensive flexibility, is that he's generally below average across the board. He was awful at short a season ago, he hasn't been a good centerfielder in over 300 innings this year (-7 DSR -2.9 UZR) and his time in both corner outfield spots has been brief at best. Essentially, he's a body that is able to fill a need as opposed to holding down a role.

Going into 2017, I'm not sure the Twins will have to make the decision as to whether or not they keep Eduardo Escobar or Danny Santana. There's a very real possibility that the 25 man roster has room for both players. Minnesota doesn't project to be significantly better a year from now, and filler players like both of the aforementioned names have a place in that type of situation.

If you're Santana or Escobar, looking at the roster construction probably provides some reason for optimism as well. While both seem destined to operate as bench fodder, there isn't another infielder or utility type on the 40 man roster not currently at the big league level. On top of that, there isn't a surefire fit for someone to overtake that role at Triple-A or Double-A in the near future either.

Should the Twins have to make a choice, I think I'd lean towards keeping Eduardo Escobar, I think the bat has significantly more play, and that the defense can turn around some. I'm of the belief that Santana's best days may be behind him, and with an approach that doesn't get on base nearly enough, couple with a defensive ability that breaks down to simply wearing a glove, his usefulness is more in theory than practice. A year from now, both guys could still very well be with the Twins, but if one has to go, I'm ok with it being Santana.

Danny Do It All, Santana The Utility Man

Prior to the 2015 Major League Baseball season, there was no Twins player I was more down on that Danny Santana. After exploding onto the scene in 2014, and garnering some AL Rookie of the Year votes, regression was looking him right in the face. Unsustainable production at the plate caused worry, and the fears turned out to be more than warranted. In 2016, there's a different tune however. Santana could be one of the Twins most integral roster components.

In 2015, Santana produced an ugly .215/.241/.291 slash line for the Twins over 91 games at the big league level. His .405 BABIP from 2014 came crashing back to earth, and even swung heavily the other way, ending at .290 for the 2015 season. Given the starting shortstop role out of the gates, he was unpredictably terrible, and was given a much longer leash than imagined. Summarizing, the 2015 season is one that Santana will want to forget.

Nothing could help him move on quicker though than what is to come in 2016. Santana who has been named to the 25 man roster for the Twins, now finds himself in a different role. Moved back to the outfield in principle, Santana has started games all over the diamond for the Twins through spring training. Having shown the versatility to play on both sides of the infield, as well as spelling uber prospect Byron Buxton in center, Santana will have plenty at bats come his way.

Santana's approach at the plate has always been one that could lead to some struggles. Taking walks has never been a big part of Santana's game, and the 2.2% walk rate at the big league level in 2015 was a new career low. He swung at pitches outside of the zone over 43% of the time last season, and missed on swings nearly 13% of the time. Neither of those numbers are ideal (although they are better than 2016 regression favorite, Eddie Rosario), but a late season surge may have seen things begin to click again.

Prior to his promotion back to the big league club to end the season, Rosario tore up Triple-A Rochester in the month of August. He slashed .333/.352/.506 over his final 20 games there. Posting eight extra base hits, with three homers, the Dominican seemed to find his stroke once again.

Through spring training, Santana has once again continued to impress at the plate. Given 52 at bats, he owns a .327/.339/.462 slash line with a homer, and nine runs driven in. Utilizing his speed on the basepaths, he's also contributed five stolen bases to Paul Molitor and the Twins cause.

Comparing things and projecting forward for Santana, trends should be in his favor. The largest detractor to his assumed regression in 2015 was in the form of the inflated BABIP, largely a metric of luck. Santana owned a 26% hard hit rate a season ago, down just 0.5% from the 2014 season. His line drive rate dipped around 6% but there were still not any glaring abnormalities. What the numbers suggest is that Santana simply regressed to the mean, and the ball didn't bounce his way as often as it did the season before. Fortunately for him, it bounced significantly against his way more often than not, and posting that poor of a BABIP once again in 2016 doesn't seem like a good bet.

So if Santana should be expected to be better at the dish, that means half of his game is already looking to be headed in the right direction. As a utility fielder, the Twins are helping to make sure the rest of it follows suit as well.

As mentioned earlier, Santana was given the starting shortstop gig out of the gate in 2015. Across 570 plus innings, he posted a -15 DRS and -8.0 UZR for Minnesota. For some comparison as to just how bad that is, not a single qualified shortstop posted worse than a -8 DRS in 2015, and that was Jose Reyes who played 996 innings to reach that feat. What the Twins found out is that Santana is not a shortstop, or at least in a full time role.

Moving away from Santana at short, the 16 errors that came with it immediately helps the Twins defensively. It helps Danny too however, considering he's posted at least league average numbers in the outfield. Playing over 500 innings in centerfield for the 2014 Twins, Santana held down the spot, even while being a bit below average when consulting range factors. Making a home in the outfield as a rotational type should allow Santana to settle in defensively. Sparing Eduardo Escobar at short, Brian Dozier at second, or even Trevor Plouffe at third is a way to sprinkle Santana's glove into the infield without relying on him heavily.

For the upcoming version of the Twins, a focus on the 25th man will be more heightened than it has in recent memory. While I'm not suggesting that's Santana, the point is that having capable pieces off the bench is a must for a team looking to make the playoffs. Santana operating in a super utility role could be one of the nicest things afforded to the Twins in quite some time. While he isn't Nick Punto defensively, Danny Santana could round into being at least that value with the mix of the bat, flexibility, and compatibility.

If 2015 was the Twins relying on Santana to take a starting gig and run with it, 2016 will be about Minnesota hoping he can reinvent himself by being Danny-do-everything. Expect a jack of all trades, master of none type approach, and thinking it works out is a pretty good bet.

Options Don't Guarantee Twins Futures

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins had a couple of key areas the organization needed to focus on improving. After inking Korean slugger Byung Ho Park to a free agent contract, the bullpen was worked on through lower-risk, minor league offerings. Internal options seem plentiful to fill out the 25 man roster, and that means a group of players up against a wall will no doubt have to earn their spots.

Minnesota had a handful of guys that were out of minor league options as the 2015 season came to a close. Some of them were traded (Aaron Hicks, Chris Herrmann), and others were jettisoned onto greener pastures (Josmil Pinto). When the dust settled, there were four guys left that were worthy of keying in on. Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin, and Tommy Milone are all without option years, and fighting for a spot on the 2016 roster.

Despite the possibility of losing one of the aformentioned players for nothing in trying to pass them through waivers, it's hardly fair to guarantee a few of them a lock. Without putting a percentage anywhere, each of the four has a different set of circumstances when it comes to making the current Twins club.

Oswaldo Arcia

Although he has never been cut of the same cloth as Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano, Arcia did appear on top 100 prospect lists prior to the 2013 season. He swatted 20 homers for the Twins in 2014, and despite being a relative liability defensively, his bat can play. There's little room to argue that Arcia wasn't disastrous a season ago, but it certainly would be plausible that 2015 could simply be a blip on the radar.

Coming into spring training with the Opening Day outfield all but set going Eddie Rosario, Buxton, and Sano from left to right, it was the bat of Arcia that needed to play. Having shown a heightened work ethic and desire to push his game, the process has been encouraging. Arcia is maybe the most locked in player of this group to make the roster. As a back up outfielder, and bench bat, he gives the Twins something that teams around the big leagues would no doubt covet.

To return to his 2014 status, Arcia will have to continue to work on his plate discipline and approach. Chasing less and walking more will need to be two areas the Venezuelan focuses on. That said, there's too much talent and momentum working in his favor for him not to head north with Minnesota.

Danny Santana

Not quite the same situation as Arcia, but no less guaranteed to go north for the Twins, Santana must carve himself out playing time by being flexible. Forced back into the outfield after posting a hideous -15 DRS number in just over 570 innings as the starting shortstop, Santana's role will no transition to utility. Being able to play all three outfield spots, while spelling a tired infielder is where his value can come from.

Easily the most projectable regression candidate entering the 2015 season, the offense took steps backwards as well. After enjoying a .405 BABIP in his rookie year, Santana came crashing back to earth slashing a paltry .215/.241/.291 for the 2015 Twins. He's never going to walk much but he absolutely has to improve upon his chasing pitches (41.3% career outside of zone swings), as well as his swing and miss tendencies (11.6% career).

For all of his flaws, Santana could find himself slotting into the Eduardo Nunez role going forward. Playing a reserve role, while giving just enough offense to matter, and being capable of defensive flexibility, he becomes an asset on Paul Molitor's bench. He's going to go north with Minnesota, but the room for error is probably not at the same level as that of Arcia, and considering the ceilings, justifiably so.

Michael Tonkin

Of the group, it's Tonkin who's in the most interesting situation. A season ago, Minnesota's bullpen was far from good, but it wasn't very creative either. Up until the point in which Terry Ryan dealt for Kevin Jepsen, the lone lock down reliever in the second half was converted starter, Trevor May. The unfortunate part for Tonkin, is that he was out of the mix far more often than he should have been.

Called up on five different occasions during 2015 (and twice for a single game), Tonkin was never able to settle in at the big league level. He owned a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 1.1 BB/9 at Triple-A Rochester. For the Twins though, he scattered 23.1 IP compiling a 3.47 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9. The numbers aren't horrible, but what the didn't allow for was consistency. Now out of options, a spring that has seen Tonkin give up runs in two out of his three appearances has led him to be in a less than ideal situation.

There's little reason to believe Tonkin wouldn't be claimed on waivers should Minnesota not bring him north. He also may not be the best option for the pen come the regular season however. Molitor could have had a much clearer picture as to what Tonkin could provide with a better usage in 2015, or by Ryan not offering Fien arbitration for the season ahead. There's a really solid chance Minnesota puts Tonkin on the roster not wanting to lose him from the get go. There's also a decent possibility that he's not the most qualified arm for that role. If there's an option-less player that misses the 25 man, Tonkin could be it.

Tommy Milone

When rounding out the rotation, the 5th and final spot is Milone's to lose. Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson are all inked in, with Tyler Duffey's role being written in pencil for now. If Ricky Nolasco is going to unseat someone, Milone would seem to be it. Fortunately for both the prospects of the Twins staff, and Milone himself, it doesn't appear likely to happen.

Forget about Nolasco's contract, it's a sunk cost and compounding the issue by having a pitcher not a part of their best five start, doesn't seem like a worthy cause. Milone was the return of arguably one of the best trades Terry Ryan has ever made, and he's pitched more than capably of late. His 3.92 ERA in 2015 was sufficient, and he earned his recall by being unhittable at Triple-A Rochester following a demotion. Having turned in two solid spring starts thus far (5.0 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 6 K), he's positioned himself well.

Not having the velocity fastball of Nolasco, Milone doesn't project to be a realistic bullpen option. His stuff isn't going to play up significantly in relief, and that as well works in his favor. Whether Nolasco likes it or not, his role for the Twins appears to be in relief, and Milone continuing to throw well is only making the decision more solid.

Being out of options is, as has always been the case, far from a guarantee to make the 25 man roster. For the Twins group of four looking to add something to the big league club, each seems to have positioned themselves relatively. By product of circumstance, only Tonkin seems remotely possible to be skipped over, and even that doesn't seem all that likely. The good thing for Minnesota, is that each of the four players presents some realistic reason to believe they can contribute at the highest level in the year ahead.

The Reality Of Escobar

It's become a point of contention in some circles that the Minnesota Twins may not have a level of certainty at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that notion couldn't be further from the truth, at least for the time being. Going into 2016, there's no doubt Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to start every day, and the expectation should be that he'll succeed.

Way back when, I touched on the Twins continuing to benefit from the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. Escobar was the return, and it relatively early on it appeared to be a good one. Over the course of the last season however, that return looked great.

Going into the 2015 season, Escobar was the utility man looked at as a secondary option for arguably the infield's most pivotal position. After Danny Santana looked the part of a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014, he was going to be given every opportunity to start at short for first year manager Paul Molitor. You'd be hard pressed to find many that weren't ok with that decision. Santana looked prime for regression, but his new infield role was one he also seemed capable of taking over.

Then the season got underway.

It was always fair to assume that Santana was going to take a step back offensively. After owning a .405 BABIP in 2014, there was a less than zero chance he was going to put up the same kind of slash line (.319/.353/.472). What actually took place though was a level of regression that would be teetering on the brink of catastrophe.

Not only did Santana regress at the plate, he feel off completely. In 91 major league games during the 2015 season, Santana slashed a paltry .215/.241/.291. He took a grand total of six walks in over 260 at bats, and stuck out nearly 70 times. As bad as his offensive game was though, it wasn't even the real problem. At shortstop, Santana started 65 games and turned in 16 errors while being worth -15 DRS. By all statistical measures, Santana was one of the worst players in all of baseball at the position.

Enter Eduardo Escobar.

Following Santana's [prolonged] demotion, Escobar was given his opportunity. Fortunately for both Molitor and the Twins, he did everything he could with it. When the dust settled on 2015, Escobar owned a .262/.309/.445 slash line. He provided the Twins with 12 homers and doubled 31 times. His OPS was 4th best among shortstops, better than everyone not named Brandon Crawford, Tulo, or Bogaerts. In the final month of the season, Escobar only got more impressive slashing .280/.331/.486.

On the defensive side of the ball, Escobar provided an uptick as well. He ended up starting 71 games for the Twins a season ago, making just four errors. His 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR marks were some of the best posted by a Twins shortstop (and his complete game made him a significantly better fit than the defensive minded Pedro Florimon). Looking at his contributions as a whole, Escobar more than got the job done for Minnesota.

At points throughout 2015, it might have been fair to wonder whether or not the Twins would be in on free agent Ian Desmond (who still remains an unsigned FA after rejecting the Nationals qualifying offer). What became apparent as the months drew on however, is that the Twins had an internal option, and a relatively good one at that.

Despite having youth with promise at the shortstop position on the farm, both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier being representative of that, Escobar can make the role his for the time being. At just 27 years old, it appears Escobar would be a late-prime player, and someone the Twins can pencil in as they push towards playoff relevancy once again. Far more than simply a stopgap option, Escobar vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the big leagues most complete at a premium spot.

Never are the Twins going to see Escobar be a high on base guy, he simply doesn't walk enough. However, he makes a ton of contact, actually decreased his swing and miss tendencies a year ago, and doesn't chase all that often. His approach at the plate should be capable of repeating his 2015 performance, and a full season of that kind of production is only going to benefit the Twins.

Sure, Escobar isn't the flashy name that Troy Tulowtizki is, and he may never be another Xander Bogaerts, but asking the Twins to do better is telling them to replace someone that is already competing at a very high level. For the first time since [the thought of] J.J. Hardy, the Twins have the shortstop position figured out.

Dangers In Depth For Twins?

Looking at the state of the Minnesota Twins heading into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the word depth has come up often. Whether it be the surplus of young talent rising to the top of the system, the pitching staff and multiple arms competing to complete it, or the 25 man as a whole. For the first time in a while, the Twins have some depth working to their advantage. Quite possibly however, it could work to their disadvantage.

Some of the focus this offseason has been in regards to the starting rotation and the perception of depth among that group. Minnesota has three pitchers locked into starting roles including: Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, and Kyle Gibson. Behind them, a combination of Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone, Jose Berrios, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, and Trevor may will slot into the final two spots. As it pertains to pitching, the fear is their is more quantity than their is quality options.

It's pretty easy to suggest some of those starting pitching concerns are overblown. The Twins starting staff is going to be better than it was a season ago, and even significantly isn't much of a stretch. No matter who fills out those final two spots (though it likely will be Duffey and Milone), there's plenty of insurance options directly behind them.

Looking at the 25 man roster however, the Twins have another area where their depth may come into question. Looking at what the projected bench may be, Minnesota could find itself in some interesting spots. The goal for playoff and World Series team's alike is to have a better 25th player than that of your opponent. Some nights, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Twins to accomplish that feat.

Paul Molitor should have Eduardo Nunez, John Ryan Murphy, Oswaldo Arcia, and Danny Santana at his disposal on a nightly basis. Of them, you'd be hard pressed to argue any one of them is a complete player and offers immense upside for a 2016 Twins squad needing to squeeze out a few extra wins. Nunez is with the Twins on a one-year, arbitration deal, while Santana and Arcia are out of options, and Murphy is looking to carve into the starting lineup.

 A season ago, Nunez hit .282/.327/.431 in 72 games for Minnesota. That was easily the best slash line of his career, and a great deal better than the .267/.308/.388 career mark he's posted thus far. His 1.1 fWAR was nearly a full win above his previous career best, and considering his -0.6 fWAR career mark, a significant jump for a single season. Nunez also batted above .300 (.314 to be exact) on balls in play for just the second time of his career (the other time was in a 38 game sduring 2012 for the Yankees).

Nunez's hard hit rates didn't change much last season, and his contact rate actually dipped a little. He's still going to provide the Twins positional flexibility, but the offensive production is likely more mirage than it is indicative of what's to come.

Then there's Danny Santana. If there's a guy that knows about BABIP it's Santana. After hitting .319/.353/.472 in 2014, Santana's inflated .405 BABIP brought him back down to earth. Minnesota gave him an incredibly long leash a season ago, and in 91 games he slashed a terrible .215/.241/.291. His -15 DRS (defensive runs saved), and 16 errors at SS in just 66 games were beyond bad, and he's since been moved back to the outfield.

Santana is out of options in 2016, and that forces the Twins hand. He should be deployed as a super utility player that doesn't defend anywhere exceptionally well. His infield defense has been covered, and he's just a bit below average in center (a position in which he should only spell Byron Buxton). For Santana though, it comes down to whether he can hit at all, and a season ago, the Twins didn't see it.

That brings us to Arcia, who like Santana, absolutely needs to hit. Of the group thus far, Arcia no doubt presents the most offensive upside. He's just a year removed from a 20 homer output, and the hulking Venezuelan has real power when he connects. The issue is that doesn't happen often enough.

Despite posting a nice .276/.338/.379 slash line in 19 games with the Twins, the power didn't show itself enough to get him extended run. He reeled off a nice home run stretch at Triple-A in 2015, but he finished with an awful .199/.257/.372 slash line in 79 games for Rochester. He's never posted below a 15.0% swinging strike rate, and last season, he nearly swung and missed 20% of the time. With the Twins a year ago, he also chased pitches out of the zone nearly 50% of the time.

A bad outfielder (-27 DRS in 204 games played), Arcia has to hit to give the Twins any real benefit. Molitor can't afford to play him and Miguel Sano in the outfield at the same time, and coming off of the bench cold may not help his bat. Arcia, like Santana, is out of options, and without his bat catching fire, could do more harm for Minnesota than good.

Finally, the club will have a capable big league catcher to swap with Kurt Suzuki for the first time in a while. Gone are the days of calling up Four-A type players like Eric Fryer and Chris Herrmann. Murphy is far from a set-the-world-on-fire type, but he's got promise to develop into a nice big league starter. With Minnesota looking to avoid activating Suzuki's player option for 2017, the starting role should become Murphy's role sooner than later.

In his career, Murphy has never played more than 67 games at the big league level in a season. Over the last two years for the Yankees however (99 games) he's slashed .280/.324/.394. There's probably more doubles power than home run reliability there, but he looks the part of a capable big league hitter. Most importantly for the Twins is that Murphy possesses capable receiving skills as well as the ability to throw would be base-stealers out (did so at a 28% clip in 2015).

Paul Molitor is going to ease Murphy into the starting lineup, but he's more than a throw in secondary catcher. While not an offensive juggernaut, his role on the Twins bench is much more in line with future promise than his counterparts.

At the end of the day, planning to fill out your bench with starting caliber players isn't a realistic strategy. What the Twins have though may be more a by-product of their situation, and not exactly the depth on the 25 man roster you'd like to see. It's tough to envision top prospects like Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler coming up to the big league level in a reserve role, but the Twins could probably advance their overall ability be considering it at some point.

Should the Twins move towards a second playoff push in 2016, it will likely be some combination of their bench out producing expectations, and that bench transforming. No doubt making waves in October is about getting production from your best players, but the Twins will also be looking to push the envelope when it comes to the guys that round out the club as well.

Twins Reinforcement Absent In September

With August officially coming to a close, and the Twins just a game back in the Wild Card standings, Paul Molitor's club is in uncharted territory. For the past four seasons, losing has been all the Twins have known. Now with a chance to play meaningful September baseball, promotions take on a whole different meaning.

As the Rochester Red Wings finished off a 4-2 win to end the month of August, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan watched the action unfold as he decided who he would bring back north with him. Upon exiting the Triple-A clubhouse for what can be assumed the last time in 2015, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, A.J. Achter, Eric Fryer, and Michael Tonkin were headed back to the big leagues.

Vargas had been all over the system in 2015 having played with the Twins, and as low as Double-A. Santana was being forced to prove that 2014 was more than a flash in the pan. Tonkin had been up and down more times than he'd like to admit, Fryer gives Molitor options, and Achter was still looking for his time to be long enough to make an impression. They now would all get to write the next chapter of their story.

The biggest news out of Rochester though, was who wasn't called up.

Having been informed that the Twins decision maker, Ryan, was there to watch him. Being told that a few solid performances could be the final push to get to the big leagues. With the knowledge in the back of his mind, Jose Berrios pitched.

His 3.08 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga didn't matter now, and nor did his 9.1 K/9 a step down. Not even his already impressive track record at Triple-A Rochester. What mattered were the few starts being watched by the man who held his fate in his hands. With Ryan on hand, Berrios pitched to the tune of 13 one run innings. He gave up just seven hits and struck out 17 while walking just one batter. His 0.69 ERA was near flawless, and opposing hitters mustered just a .146/.163/.229 line against him. At the end of it all though, it was deemed not enough.

Despite Kyle Gibson owning an ERA of 6.00 in August, forgetting that Tommy Milone had been hit around to a 5.40 mark over his last three starts, and negating the fact that one brilliant outing overshadowed a 9.12 ERA for Ervin Santana in the past month, Ryan decided there was no room for Berrios. With nearly 160 innings pitched under his belt, this was Berrios opportunity to make a contribution at the next level.

There's two trains of thought that could provide answers for the most obvious reasons to overlook such a needed commodity in Minnesota. The first, is Berrios' workload itself. Having pitched a career high 139.2 innings a season ago, a 20% increase was fast approaching. Whether of the belief that should be a hard stop to avoid arm damage for a young player or not, the Twins would no doubt want to exercise caution with the 21 year old.

Despite Berrios being in the best shape of his life (as quickly noticed by his offseason program), the long term health should continue to remain at the forefront. His big league contribution (from a health standpoint) would have made a lot of sense sometime in August, and no doubt would have afforded the Twins more work earlier on in the shutdown process.

On the flip side, there is baseball as a business. A team like the Twins generally is going to do what they can to keep control over young assets. Without the lucrative TV deal allowing spending to be amongst the league's best, smart contracts loom large. Berrios has a service clock that has yet to start, and a September call up would reverse that fact.

The problem with both of the reasons not to bring up what no doubt could be a key cog for the stretch run, is that both issues are somewhat simply addressed. On the health side of things, Terry Ryan was in person to watch Berrios is his most recent outings. Showing no signs of slowing down, the sentiment that Ryan suggested in regards to his limit being based on feel, seems little more than lip service. A 20% increase in innings is far from a gold standard, and once again, Berrios has done nothing but show he wants more.

In regards to service time, contracts, and controllability, the Twins decide to gamble on the future. While Berrios' service time would start with a September call up, a year of arbitration is not immediately lost. Had the Twins called him up now, and then held him at Triple-A until May 2016 (rather than starting with the Twins out of Spring Training), they would have saved the same year of service time. No doubt the practice would frustrate an agent, but the same can be said about the current handling.

At the end of the day, the Twins are in a position that no one expected them to be. Above .500 and competing for a playoff spot in the season's final month, an opportunity presented itself. Rather than capitalize on where they are currently, Terry Ryan decided to gamble and hope that in 2022 (when Berrios' final year of team control comes into play), matters just as much.

Minnesota could have positioned themselves for a playoff run now, in 2016, and going forward. Instead, they chose to play the "we're just happy to be here" card, and act as though 2015 is nothing more than a participation trophy.

The Twins Shortstops, Or Lack Thereof

In the dead of the night, the Colorado Rockies sent their All Star shortstop, and their face of the franchise, Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays. The deal involved another high profile shortstop, Jose Reyes, heading back to the Rockies. While the Twins were linked to Tulo at different points leading up to the trade, passing on him was always the best move. Reyes will likely become available now as well, and the Twins should once again look the other way. Despite neither of those names being fits, the Twins need to find something, and it may not come from within.

Right now, the Twins have allowed a grouping of Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez to hold down what is arguably the most important position in the infield. Santana was the Twins Opening Day starter and he had the uphill battle of substantiating a smoke and mirrors offensive 2014. The .405 BABIP had Santana stacked against regression, and it has hit hard. He's batted just .219/.243/.300 in 72 games, still doesn't take walks (66/5 K/BB) and has yet to hit a home run (after having seven last season).

On the defensive side, Santana hasn't been any good either. He's made 16 errors and is 6th in the majors in that category despite playing significantly less games. He's been worth -14 DRS (defensive runs saved) to this point and owns a -4.8 UZR (ultimate zone rating). To put it simply, it hasn't been pretty and a second demotion should come soon.

Probably most deserving of being the Twins current shortstop, comes in the form of a Band-Aid. Eduardo Escobar flashed promise a season ago, but remains best suited as a utility type. He owns a .246/.280/.389 slash line on the season, and that's right about what his career averages look like. He's started 19 games at short, made two errors, been worth -1 DRS, and owns a -1.6 UZR.

Rounding out the 25 man roster options is former Derek Jeter replacement, Edaurdo Nunez. His .277/.31`5/.445 slash line is buoyed by a lack of at bats, and a very strong start. He's played 14 games at shortstop for the Twins, making no errors, being worth 0 DRS, and owning a 1.2 UZR. As a replacement player, you could probably do worse. However, the 14 game sample size also hides a guy that was worth -28 DRS in just 75 games at short for the Yankees in 2013.

So if the answer isn't on the active roster, it has to be on the farm right? That answer is somewhat difficult to come up with. Most ready would appear to be Triple-A shortstop Jorge Polanco. His bat appears major league ready, but his fielding has some significant issues. Slashing .284/.309/.352 for Rochester, Polanco's bat has cooled since his initial promotion. His 26 extra base hits on the season are nice to see however. In the field Polanco faces the demons holding him back. He's made eight errors in 19 games at the Triple-A level, and he has another 16 in 64 Double-A games this season. He probably would hit right away for the Twins, but there's little doubt he'd be a defensive liability.

Down another level, and taking Polanco's place for the Lookouts, is Niko Goodrum. In 464 minor league games, Goodrum owns a .242/.336/.352 slash line, and he's below all of those marks this season. The Twins took Goodrum out of high school in the second round of the 2010 Major League Baseball draft. He's played all over the place in the Twins system, but the infield seems to be his best fit. He too has struggled with errors, and the upside has yet to rear it's head.

Fort Myers, the Twins High-A affiliate has rotated through the shortstop position as well. Goodrum spent time there prior to his promotion, and now Engelb Vielma and Ryan Walker have taken over. Vielma is a 21 year old who has gotten better as he's risen through the Twins farm (.266/.309/.308 in 2015), and Walker was an 18th round pick in 2013 by the Twins (.272/.310/.293 in 2015). Neither posses the peripherals of a major league quality shortstop at this point.

The next level down is where things get interesting. At Low-A Cedar Rapids, the Twins 1st round pick in 2014 resides. Gordon is looked at as a potential Gold Glove level defender and a lacking bat. He's hit just .267/.334/.334 this season, but he owned a 17 game hit streak and has been on fire since the end of June (.316/.358/.429). Just 19 years old, Gordon doesn't figure to factor into the Twins plans for at least the next three years. He has a slight frame (6'0" 160lbs) and needs to fill out yet, as well as needing the seasoning that comes with rising through the system.

Then there's Wander Javier, the 16-year-old dominican shortstop the Twins just signed to a $4 million bonus. Javier is also looked upon favorably, but won't be ready for the big leagues for at least six years. He's got plenty of projectability, but it's also on the twins to help him develop into the player they spent big money on.

Looking through the options, it's the combined $8 million the Twins spent (Gordon got a $4 million draft bonus) that seem to be future fits at shortstop. Unfortunately that money is invested in teenagers a long ways from helping at the highest level. Both Gordon and Javier could work out, and both could fail, right now though neither help the Twins.

For a team looking to compete in the upcoming season, addressing the hole at shortstop seems necessary. Escobar should probably have already taken over for Santana, and the Twins should be determining if Polanco can stick at the spot. After determining what they have in those two scenarios, Minnesota would find itself in position to make a move. Going out and getting a big fish before making those decisions would be short-sighted, but there's no denying that it's very likely the Twins don't have a shortstop that can help them in the immediate future within the organization.

Regression Causing Twins Problems

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins lost 90 games, finished dead last in the AL Central, and watched as longtime manager Ron Gardenhire got the heave-ho. In the middle of all of the negativity however, there were three players who contributed at a level that could not have been imagined. Fending off regression with every at bat, they helped to pace a bad Twins team. Now, as the expected regression has set in, they are at the root of many of the Twins problems.

The most unlikely breakthrough candidate last year was the shortstop turned outfielder that put himself in the midst of the Rookie of the Year race. Danny Santana slashed .308/.343/.492 in 101 games with the Twins. Adding seven home runs and 40 RBI, Santana was incredibly productive at the plate. With Aaron Hicks struggling at the plate, it was Santana that would take over the centerfield role. Things were going great, but many advanced stats suggested it wasn't meant to be.

Owning a .405 BABIP (Batting average on balls in play), Santana's success never seemed sustainable. On top of waiting for that hammer to fall, his outfield defense left plenty to be desired. Sure the speed was there, but playing out of position was relatively apparent. Santana owned a -2 DRS (defensive runs saved) and had a -5.4 UZR (ultimate zone rating). As a whole, it was smoke and mirrors at its finest.

Fast forward a year, and everything has blown up at once. After winning the Opening Day shortstop spot, Santana has been demoted once and has been deserving of it happening a second time for quite a while. He's been worth a horrible -12 DRS and -4.8 UZR at what is considered his natural position. Santana has also 15 errors (5th in MLB), despite playing significantly less games than the rest of the group. His .221/.241/.306 line at the plate is nothing short of ugly as well.

The perfect storm (or maybe imperfect) has hit for Santana, and left a gaping hole at shortstop. Not only can't Santana hit or field, but Minnesota is void of secondary options as well. While Eduardo Escobar is an upgrade, he's more backup material than anything. Jorge Polanco has the bat for big league action, but looks to be nearly as much of a defensive liability. Minnesota invested heavily in both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier, but neither are anywhere close to the big leagues. For now, Santana isn't the Twins shortstop of the future, and there isn't one in sight.

From the middle of the diamond to the position behind it, Kurt Suzuki is also becoming a problem for the Twins. After playing out of his mind in 2014 and securing All Star honors, baseball has reversed course for the former Athletics backstop.

Much like Santana, Suzuki was benefited by an out of whack BABIP. At .310 a year ago, Suzuki was enjoying the highest mark of his career. It help to push his slash line to an impressive .288/.345/.383 mark. His 61 RBI were his best total since 2010, and the Twins locked in the veteran with a two year extension.

Considering the market for capable veteran catchers, the new deal wasn't exactly the problem. Between the extensive regression, and the lack of development, Minnesota now finds themselves in a bad spot however. Suzuki was not going to keep his 2014 pace, but his .225/.283/.300 2015 slash line is ugly. He continues to be a bad defensive catcher and has been worth -3 DRS on the season. Throwing out just 19% of base runners on the year, he's one of the worst receivers in the big leagues.

Minnesota has watched as Stuart Turner has failed to develop at Double-A, batting just .206/.292/.291, and Josmil Pinto has been unable to stay healthy at Triple-A. With the farm being void of options, the combination of extending what is now a horrible catcher, and having nothing to pair him with, has become disastrous.

Rounding out the problematic group of regression is none other than another young phenom, Kennys Vargas. After bursting onto the scene during the Future's Game at Target Field, Vargas was inserted into the Twins lineup to provide some pop. The first basemen was promoted from Double-A and went on to hit .274/.316/.456 with nine home runs across just 53 big league games.

Unlike the first two candidates on this list, Vargas wasn't seen as such a significant cause for concern when it came to taking a step back this year. What he has done however has no doubt hurt the club that counted on him being a power bat as the DH in the middle of the lineup. Batting just .245/.277/.365 in 47 games, the Twins have demoted Vargas twice (with the most recent being all the way to Double-A).

The Twins made a pretty big mistake in demoting Vargas the first time in the midst of the young slugger figuring things out. However, he has since not been able to rebound and continues to be the power bat the Twins wished they would have been able to make work. In a lineup struggling to score runs, the power that was believed to be there with Vargas is haunting Minnesota more nights than it isn't.

As an organization, the Twins are still in a good place. They are competing a year before they should be, and they have some good pieces going forward. With the regression of three players holding down key roles however, Minnesota must address the problems before they can take what might end up being the vital next step. There doesn't appear to be answers for either of the first two from within, and salvaging the third should be a priority. As the Twins look to complete their turnaround, these storylines will remain worth monitoring.

Can't The Twins Just Play Where They Belong?

Following the conclusion of the 2014 Major League Baseball season, longtime Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire was shown the door. Although the four seasons of losing weren't all his fault, he did little to help the matter either. In his place, Paul Molitor took over. So far in 2015, results as a whole have been promising, but one area continues to be baffling.

Why can't Molitor and the Twins just be happy playing their position? The main culprit, the outfield.

Heading into the season, the Twins decided (as most major league teams do) to roll with a four man outfield. Jordan Schafer would start in center, flanked by Oswaldo Arcia in left and Torii Hunter in right. Shane Robinson would operate as the club's fourth outfielder. As a whole, that might have been one of the worst constructed outfields in recent memory, but that remains a different discussion.

Molitor then decided to leave Aaron Hicks down in Rochester to start the season, and that turned out to be as much of an erroneous decision as should have been expected. As far as emergency or utility type player, the Twins brought Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez all north. Here is where the problem begins.

Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield for the Twins, while Nunez and Santana have both played two a piece. In those games, the defense has been every bit as bad as you'd expect a player out of position to provide.

Escobar has a -1 DRS (defensive runs saved) rating, as well as a -3.0 YZR (ultimate zone rating). Santana and Nunez haven't spent enough innings to factor in yet in 2015, but Santana was far from adequate a year ago. In 534 innings in centerfield during the 2014 season, Santana compiled an ugly -5.4 UZR. Of the group, only Nunez doesn't post negative numbers.

Now forcing a player to be out of position on defense would almost exclusively have to suggest the offensive production is there. For the Twins though, that doesn't seem to be the case either. The most often played Escobar owns a poor .247/.281/.389 line, with Santana's .209/.233/.276 looking even uglier. In fact, only Nunez has shown a glimpse of offensive production with a .303/.346/.505 line.

There's no doubt that everything can't fall on Molitor and odd decision making though. After all, Jordan Schafer redefined terrible, and Robinson is no doubt limited. Byron Buxton was called up and made it through just 11 games before being shelved for a month, and Aaron Hicks was also shelved for a brief period of time. At this point though, the complacency to make a move hurts the Twins.

Already having suffered through poor outfield defense for much of the year, the Twins have shown little urgency to rectify the problem when the opportunity presents itself. The latest example revolves around Santana and Hicks.

Now having played a handful of rehab games for Rochester, the Twins should have had Hicks on a plane back to join the big club at the first opportunity. With Santana overmatched at the plate, and a struggling outfielder, Hicks should be claiming his role. On top of that, Molitor had to lift Robinson after getting hit by a pitch, calling into question what his availability looks like.

It's really rather unfair to point to the problem as a whole through the eyes of one or two examples. However, the fact that Eduardo Escobar has played 31 games in the outfield this year is a big enough issue. Showing an affinity to giving innings in the grass to players like Nunez and Santana on top of it only complicates things.

Save Nunez for playing shortstop and giving guys around the infield a day off, and use your position players where they fit. When someone is hitting .319 with a .405 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), it makes sense to push a square peg into a round hole. When a guy has a paltry OPS and is doing nothing for you offensively, stop trying to over think it.

Shortstop, A Cry For Better Days

Heading into spring training, and throughout much of it, there was talk that the Twins standout rookie Danny Santana could be challenged or even removed from the shortstop role due to the emergence of Eduardo Escobar. At the time, it was crazy talk, and it still remains in that context. The Twins absolutely needed to allow their surprising rookie to validate his performance, but now that fact is that he simply hasn't. Heading into the heat of the summer, Minnesota has a very important decision to make.

Looking at the baseball field as a whole, two positions can lay claim to a higher importance in the field than most; centerfield and shortstop. Both roles act as a field general of sorts and typically are manned by some of the best athletes on the team. Minnesota finds itself in a position where its shortstop ranks amongst the leagues worst in several defensive categories, and is offering little value elsewhere to boot.

After slashing an inflated .319/.353/.472 (mostly due to an unsustainable .400+ BABIP) in 2014, Danny Santana owns a paltry .226/.244/.305 slash line in 2015. He's walked just twice on the season, while accumulating 45 strikeouts. Despite being regarded as a speed threat, he has stolen just four bases while being caught three times (after being caught just four times in 24 attempts in 2014). On the defensive side of the ball, he's made 11 errors (just two in 34 games at SS in 2014), is worth -10 DRS (defensive runs saved), and owns a -5.1 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). All totaled, Santana is currently worth -0.7 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement) after posting a 3.3 value a season ago.

You absolutely had to expect a certain level of regression to hit Santana, his 2014 was otherwordly in context. What he's doing into 2015 however isn't regression. To put it simply, he's fallen off of a cliff. At this point, the Twins are nearing a crossroads where they must make a decision, and there's really only two options to consider. The first comes from within.

Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins in 2014, making the leap from Single-A Fort Myers. Over the course of five games, he got eight plate appearances and collected a double and triple for his only two hits. This season in Double-A Chattanooga, he's continued his hot streak. The every day SS for the loaded farm team, Polanco owns a .323/.355/.435 slash line. He's hit four home runs, driven in 24 RBI, walked 10 times, and struck out in 30 at bats. His nine errors are somewhat indicative of his arm strength (or lack thereof), and being a better fielder is something he will need to continue to refine (35 errors in 119 games at SS in 2014).

Minnesota could take a long look at a Polanco for Santana swap sometime in the near future, but it may not rectify all of the issues. There's reason to believe Polanco could be a better hitter at the big league level, but he too could cede too many runs for the pitching staff's liking. That leads us to option number two, going outside of the organization.

Looking at what the Twins will do with promotions in 2015 and beyond, there's no shortage of logjams. From players like Polanco and Max Kepler, to pitchers like Stephen Gonslaves and Chih-Wei Hu, the Twins have plenty of other prospects not named Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton. Knowing that they may not be able to advance all of them through the system in it's current state, it may be time to deal some assets for immediate help.

Defensively, shortstop is a position that the Twins need to be sound. You probably need to go back to 2001 Cristian Guzman for a time you could point at the Twins having a true asset at the position. In going for a splash, the Twins could target a player like Andrelton Simmons to fill their vacancy. Not the aged All-Star that Troy Tulowitzki is, and potentially not commanding the same return that the Cubs Starlin Castro may require, Minnesota may find a match.

Undoubtedly, I'm not one to suggest trade scenarios, it's just not something I'm well versed in. That being said, Minnesota could be presented with pursuing that scenario on their own should they deem Polanco not the immediate answer. No matter what happens, the thing that remains most clear is that Danny Santana is not the option to roll with currently.

As the summer draws on and this team jostles for position, it will be in how the next few weeks play out that determine how the Twins position themselves for the stretch run.