Twins Have Their Own Pen Weapon

Coming into the 2017 Major League Baseball season, there were few things that looked like a bigger question mark for the Minnesota Twins than their bullpen. With an uncertain starting rotation, the pen had been comprised mainly of holdovers, with veteran additions of Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow. What’s worth noting though, is the Twins have their own secret weapon.

Last fall, we saw relievers put onto full display in the Postseason and World Series. The Chicago Cubs leaned on Aroldis Chapman heavily, and no arm was more valuable to their team than Andrew Miller late in games. What was interesting with Miller, is that while he’d likely be the most dominant closer in baseball, Terry Francona routinely brought him into games much earlier.

Throughout the Postseason, we saw a pitcher being used in a very unconventional way. Miller has become the gold standard in the big leagues out of the pen, and the Indians turned to him whenever they needed an out. Entering games with runners on in key situations, Miller’s usage bucked the trend of saving your top arm for the final inning. He allowed Cleveland to escape jams and hold onto leads. While the Twins don’t have Andrew Miller, they have their own way to recreate the same scenario.

Enter Ryan Pressly.

During the offseason, much has been made about what the Twins will do at closer. Brandon Kintzler hanging onto the job while striking no one out is a big ask, and Glen Perkins could be all but done with his major league career. The consensus is that next in line would be either J.T. Chargois or Pressly. For now though, Pressly gives the Twins a really, really nice weapon.

Recently, Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse tweeted “Modern bullpen use: Ryan Pressly is Twins best, but not the closer. He's getting 2 outs & leaving lead run on 3rd earlier.” He couldn’t be more spot on. In the third game of the season, Pressly entered in relief of Craig Breslow during the 6^th inning. With runners on second and third in a tight game, Pressly got two straight outs and allowed the Twins to leave the inning still tied up.

Pressly turned in an 8.00 K/9 in 2016, and got strikeouts against just north of 20% of the batters he faced. Each year since joining the Twins as a Rule 5 pick in 2013, Pressly has upped his velocity, averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball a year ago. He also features a wipeout slider at 88 mph and a strong curveball in the low 80s. Posting a new career high, Pressly generated swing strikes 11.7% of the time a year ago, and he was forcing batters to chase out of the zone one-third of the time.

For 2017, Pressly makes right around $7 million less than the Indians superstar, and he has nowhere near the same level of fanfare. Don’t let that fool you though, Paul Molitor has a weapon of his own. While it may be conventional wisdom to have Pressly work the eighth or close games for the Twins, using him as a shutdown arm when the game commands it most gives Minnesota an advantage that is all too valuable.

Jay Represents Twins Past And Future

Recently, Twins Daily reported that the Minnesota Twins have pulled the plug on turning 2016 6th overall raft pick Tyler Jay, into a starter. It's an unfortunate outcome that makes the pick look much worse off than what it was originally perceived, but at this point it's also representative of what was, and what is now. As the rest of Jay's narrative plays out, he'll be looked at through at a very unique lens. 

When selected 6th overall in the 2015 draft, there was plenty of concern over the pick immediately. Jay was a college reliever for the University of Illinois, and starting had never been something he'd done. His stuff was electric, and he was viewed as a potential quick riser as a reliever, but the peripherals really didn't suggest he could start. Then there was the reality that in selecting Jay, Minnesota declined to draft Andrew benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ, James Kaprielian, or Walker Buehler. The list of those they past on, is simply much more impressive than the guy they took at this point.

Making the commitment to use Jay as a reliever full time, the Twins new regime has noted they are playing with house money. It was Terry Ryan as General Manager when Jay was selected, and it was his vision that he could be cast as a starter. Instead of sharing in that belief (and one that hadn't produced great results), both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine saw a way to get value, and in a more immediate fashion.

There's always been a pretty solid belief that Tyler Jay can be a good big league reliever. He was a closer in college, and his fastball and slider combination has seemed deadly out of the pen. Over his final 12 games in relief during the 2015 season, Jay worked 11.2 IP and owned a 1.54 ERA in which he allowed opposing hitters just a .505 OPS. During his pro debut being used solely in relief, Jay generated 10.8 K/9.

No matter how good of a reliever Jay becomes though, he almost certainly will never be able to justify the mistake that Terry Ryan made. That's something that Falvey and Levine have seemingly come to grips with, and decided it wasn't their problem. In using Jay as a reliever, he can more quickly help the Twins pen, and should be an option as early as midway through the 2017 season.

Although the Twins have strong relief arms in the form of Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and J.T. Chargois, none of them were first round selections. Looking at elite bullpen arms such as Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, you find two failed big league starters that both began nearly 50 games at the highest level. Both became full time relievers at their age 26 and 27 seasons respectively, and it seems Minnesota is going to get a jumpstart on their guy.

Right now, Tyler Jay is just nearing his 23rd birthday. He's got a very realistic chance to debut in the big leagues not long after, and he could quickly find himself pitching in high leverage situations. Sure, that's not the result anyone wanted from that high of a pick, but the new regime has been given the keys to a solid bet on a fix for the pen, and they're turning the ignition over on him.

My guess would be that Jay pitches at Double-A Chattanooga to start the year, with a brief cameo in Rochester prior to his debut. I don't know that he'll beat Jake Reed to the big leagues, but given Nick Burdi's lost 2016, Jay could overtake him. At any rate, the Twins getting an influx of arms like Reed, Jay, Burdi, and Mason Melotakis in relief this season is a very good thing.

Tyler Jay wasn't a pick made by the current regime, and it's very likely he isn't the guy they would've wanted. Instead of committing to slow process with a high washout rate until he's about 26, Minnesota is cashing in now. Jay won't have to be the failed starter going to some other team and latching on as a strong reliever, he can do that for his new bosses. There's a pretty good blueprint for a lefty that owns a good slider and fastball combination, and he also happened to be the 6th overall pick. His name, the aforementioned Andrew Miller.

World Series Highlights Relief Perfection

Remember when the Baltimore Orioles were eliminated in the American League Wild Card game by the Toronto Blue Jays? Not only was it heartbreak, but manager Buck Showalter never used closer Zach Britton. The best reliever in the major leagues this season went unused in a game that was never guaranteed to be followed by another. It looked dumb then, and has been the highlighted scenario in the World Series.

You'll often hear of managers failing to go to their closer before the 9th inning, or saving them when on the road. Both the Chicago Cubs Joe Maddon and Cleveland Indians Terry Francona have made a mockery of traditional (and dated) bullpen usage over the course of the World Series.

Throughout the course of the five games, Andrew Miller has been Francona's go to. While not technically the Indians closer, he's easily their best relief pitcher. He's thrown 5.1 IP through the first five games and has struck out eight batters walking just two and giving up just one run. Regardless of it being early or late, Francona has given Miller the ball in the highest leverage situations. Over the course of the playoffs, he's entered as early as the 5th inning, and as late as the 8th.

On the other side of the field, Maddon got on board during game five. Needing to survive to last another game, the Cubs manager went with his rocket throwing closer Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning. He asked the Cuban Missile to get 8 outs, and even had him bat for himself in the 8th inning. Chapman pitched arguably the most important 2.2 innings of the Cubs season, struck out four, and gave up just one hit. When Chicago needed outs the most, they went to the guy that generally racks them up in bunches.

Now, to be fair, both bullpens have had some suspect usage over the course of the Fall Classic. Francona has generally operated with the belief that both Miller and closer Cody Allen are the only relief arms capable of getting Cleveland outs. With a 6 run lead in game four, and with Corey Kluber rolling, he went to Miller for two innings of work. Despite a six to nothing tally in favor of the Indians at home in game one, Francona went to both Miller and Allen for a combined three innings as well. He's given the Cubs extended and unnecessary looks at both pitchers at times, as well as not having his two best options available in arguably more pressing situations.

For Maddon, it hasn't been so much that there's been bullpen over-reliance as it has been a realization that the Cubs pen is really what it is. Instead of having a Miller and Allen type, the Cubs are pretty much whatever they can get until Chapman can enter a game. Their first relievers most nights have been C.J. Edwards, Mike Montgomery, and Justin Grimm. That group is capable, but far from unhittable.

Aside from the minor disagreements with usage, there's nothing else to surmise from the way both teams have used their relievers in the World Series other than it's something that more teams need to get on board with. Sure, a baseball game ends after the 9th inning, but suggesting that a game is always won or lost at that period of time is quite the goofy suggestion. If you are looking to lock down a big situation earlier in the game, you should absolutely do so.

With statistics being what they are, a closer is always going to look at saves and opportunities as a bargaining chip when it comes time to be paid. While that's absolutely fair, it shouldn't be the only thing that's considered. The Indians had to give up quite the haul for Andrew Miller, and he's been compensated quite well across his career. Yeah, it's nice to increase a save tally for your personal records, but Andrew Miller has just one this entire Postseason, and he's easily been the most important reliever to step foot on the mound.