First Round Fall on Minnesota 40 Man

With the regular season and Postseason now in the books, the Minnesota Twins are joined by every other major league team in the offseason. Joe Mauer is a free agent for the first time in his career, and the front office has plenty of 40 man roster decisions to make. Prior to bringing in new talent the organization must decide who will be kept from within. At this juncture, there's a very real possibility a first round pick could see his time come to an end.

Recently on Twins Daily, Seth Stohs did a great job highlighting the minor leaguers with impending 40 man additions looming. Although the Twins don't have much in the form of guaranteed adds, there's a couple of big name prospects that are part of the group. Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade will certainly be added to the 40 man roster, but there's zero certainties given to former 6th overall pick Tyler Jay.

Set to follow in the footsteps of Phil Hughes and Matt Harvey, Jay was destined for surgery to address Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. After getting in just 11.2 IP during 2017, Jay opted to pass on the surgical route and believed rest and rehab had addressed the issue. Returning for Arizona Fall League action, Jay got in 9.2 innings before his offseason began. In 2018 Jay returned to Double-A and spent the entire season there. Pitching just shy of 60 innings, he turned in a lackluster 4.22 ERA that was bolstered by a career worst 7.4 K/9.

Selected by Terry Ryan in the 2015 Major League Draft, Jay looked like an odd fit from the get go. He was a dominant closer at the University of Illinois, but had never worked as a starter, and the frame didn't suggest great things would be in store. Ryan had made a habit of going with relievers early in drafts during the final years of his tenure as Minnesota's GM, but the track record in developing them was poor at best.

Prior to the front office change the Twins attempted to work Jay as a starter. He made just 18 starts, and while the numbers weren't bad, the quality of his stuff sagged across the board. As a reliever the velocity and strikeouts were his best assets, but the unfortunate shoulder issues changed things significantly as well.

At this point in the game shoulder problems are significantly more damning to the effectiveness a pitcher will display as their career continues. While Tommy John surgery carries the name recognition and the lengthy timetable, the reality is that it's a standard operation and pretty well understood. Shoulders and the injuries related to them, are a much bigger wildcard, and we see a minefield of guys that will look back and wonder what could've been.

It's really too bad that Jay is going to be at this crossroad, but the climb through minor league baseball is not an easy one. He'll be 25 next season, and hasn't been a top prospect for three years. Having relievers like Jake Reed and Nick Anderson more deserving of the roster spots, it's hard to make a case based solely on pick pedigree.

On the flip side, there is a decent possibility that the Twins may not lose Jay through the Rule 5 draft. The same hurdles in front of him for Minnesota are present anywhere else. He wasn't good last season, health remains a question mark, and jumping up to the big leagues likely doesn't provide ideal results. Another year in a system he's grown acquainted to could be a good thing for both the player and the organization.

Looking back it would've been great if Terry Ryan's run on early round relievers would've worked out. It was a low ceiling with an even lower floor approach though, and it's a process that yielded projectable results. Adding Jay to the list of misses would be the final nail in the coffin, but we could certainly be embarking upon that reality soon.

Jay Represents Twins Past And Future

Recently, Twins Daily reported that the Minnesota Twins have pulled the plug on turning 2016 6th overall raft pick Tyler Jay, into a starter. It's an unfortunate outcome that makes the pick look much worse off than what it was originally perceived, but at this point it's also representative of what was, and what is now. As the rest of Jay's narrative plays out, he'll be looked at through at a very unique lens. 

When selected 6th overall in the 2015 draft, there was plenty of concern over the pick immediately. Jay was a college reliever for the University of Illinois, and starting had never been something he'd done. His stuff was electric, and he was viewed as a potential quick riser as a reliever, but the peripherals really didn't suggest he could start. Then there was the reality that in selecting Jay, Minnesota declined to draft Andrew benintendi, Carson Fulmer, Ian Happ, James Kaprielian, or Walker Buehler. The list of those they past on, is simply much more impressive than the guy they took at this point.

Making the commitment to use Jay as a reliever full time, the Twins new regime has noted they are playing with house money. It was Terry Ryan as General Manager when Jay was selected, and it was his vision that he could be cast as a starter. Instead of sharing in that belief (and one that hadn't produced great results), both Derek Falvey and Thad Levine saw a way to get value, and in a more immediate fashion.

There's always been a pretty solid belief that Tyler Jay can be a good big league reliever. He was a closer in college, and his fastball and slider combination has seemed deadly out of the pen. Over his final 12 games in relief during the 2015 season, Jay worked 11.2 IP and owned a 1.54 ERA in which he allowed opposing hitters just a .505 OPS. During his pro debut being used solely in relief, Jay generated 10.8 K/9.

No matter how good of a reliever Jay becomes though, he almost certainly will never be able to justify the mistake that Terry Ryan made. That's something that Falvey and Levine have seemingly come to grips with, and decided it wasn't their problem. In using Jay as a reliever, he can more quickly help the Twins pen, and should be an option as early as midway through the 2017 season.

Although the Twins have strong relief arms in the form of Jake Reed, Nick Burdi, and J.T. Chargois, none of them were first round selections. Looking at elite bullpen arms such as Zach Britton and Andrew Miller, you find two failed big league starters that both began nearly 50 games at the highest level. Both became full time relievers at their age 26 and 27 seasons respectively, and it seems Minnesota is going to get a jumpstart on their guy.

Right now, Tyler Jay is just nearing his 23rd birthday. He's got a very realistic chance to debut in the big leagues not long after, and he could quickly find himself pitching in high leverage situations. Sure, that's not the result anyone wanted from that high of a pick, but the new regime has been given the keys to a solid bet on a fix for the pen, and they're turning the ignition over on him.

My guess would be that Jay pitches at Double-A Chattanooga to start the year, with a brief cameo in Rochester prior to his debut. I don't know that he'll beat Jake Reed to the big leagues, but given Nick Burdi's lost 2016, Jay could overtake him. At any rate, the Twins getting an influx of arms like Reed, Jay, Burdi, and Mason Melotakis in relief this season is a very good thing.

Tyler Jay wasn't a pick made by the current regime, and it's very likely he isn't the guy they would've wanted. Instead of committing to slow process with a high washout rate until he's about 26, Minnesota is cashing in now. Jay won't have to be the failed starter going to some other team and latching on as a strong reliever, he can do that for his new bosses. There's a pretty good blueprint for a lefty that owns a good slider and fastball combination, and he also happened to be the 6th overall pick. His name, the aforementioned Andrew Miller.

Prospects On The Way For 2017

A year ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. There was a ton of top tier talent, and the bulk of it was near major league ready. Miguel Sano had paved the way by making his debut in 2015, and there was plenty of youth on the way to the Twin Cities to join him. This season, the Twins won't have quite that level of prospect talent, but there's reinforcements on the way.

Prior to free agency getting underway, and the Twins shaping their 40 man roster for the 2017 season, I wanted to take a look at what internal options Paul Molitor should have. Of the eight players I named last season, four of them made their major league debuts. Here's to hoping I hit on a bit higher than 50% this time around.

Jake Reed- May

A repeat from last year, I expected Reed to debut in 2016. Unfortunately he had a slow start at Double-A and couldn't get things consistently going in his favor. The command issues persisted for him at Chattanooga while he walked 3.3 per nine. His strikeout rate jumped to 9.6 per nine, which was a nice boost. A strong finish to the season had him promoted to Triple-A for just over 10 innings, and he was worthy of a September call up. Of the Twins relief options heading into 2017, it should be Reed who's called upon to provide a boost first.

Nick Burdi- June

Another 2016 holdover, Burdi threw just three innings last season. Dealing with a spring training fluke injury, and then arm injuries throughout the year, it was essentially a lost campaign. Burdi brings the heat and can touch 100 mph when healthy. Minnesota will need to make sure his arm is in good shape early this spring, and you can bet that they'd like to have him in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Burdi's younger brother Zack was a first round pick last season by the White Sox and is already at Triple-A; you can bet there might be a little family rivalry to see who can get to The Show first.

Stephen Gonsalves- July

The next pitcher on the list of starting prospects the Twins need to pan out is none other than the 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Pitching at both High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Chattanooga, Gonsalves dominated each level. His 10.0 K/9 was very strong, and while his 3.7 BB/9 number isn't ideal, it was inflated by some clunker outings. His stuff isn't as electric as that of Berrios, and he profiles as more of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but after a brief time in Triple-A to start 2017, he should be at Target Field by the middle of the summer.

Trevor Hildenberger- July

Hildenberger is one of the more interesting names on this list. He's 25 and not a top 100 prospect, but he's one of the better relief arms in the Twins system. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Burdi and Reed, but working as the Double-A closer in 2016, he was about as sure of a thing as it gets. Throwing 38.2 IP in 2016 for Chattanooga, Hildenberger struck out 10.5 per 9 walking just 1.4 per nine. He was shut down with an injury to end the year, but could've made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues. Not currently on the 40 man roster, Hildenberger should be added soon and can provide some punch down the stretch.

Mason Melotakis- August

The Twins, are least the former regime, definitely see something in Melotakis. He was added to the 40 man roster in 2016, and was sent to pitch in the Arizona Fall League this year. After missing 2015 due to injury, Melotakis pitched all of 2016 at Double-A Chattanooga. In 33.1 IP he struck out 11.3 per nine. Minnesota needs more strikeout types out of the pen, and Melotakis looks like he could be just that. At 25, he's on the verge of getting up there in age, but if he can show well early in Triple-A, he should find himself in the big league clubhouse to end the year.

Tyler Jay- September

In regards to Jay, there's a couple different ways that 2017 could go, and a lot will depend on how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view the former first round pick. He was exclusively a reliever in college, and his transition to a starter has been a process. Jay will almost certainly begin 2017 at Double-A and should finish the year at Triple-A. If starting doesn't work out or the Twins need him sooner, Jay could definitely be used out of the pen almost immediately.

Mitch Garver- September

Suggesting that Garver doesn't see the big leagues until September comes with a significant disclaimer; the assumption being that Minnesota signs or trades for a starting catcher prior to 2017. Garver should've seen his debut last September, and he had significantly more purpose being a big leaguer than Juan Centeno did a season ago, but he was skipped over. Should a new starting backstop come into the fold, Garver is likely going to have to overtake John Ryan Murphy for backup duties, and will likely spend the bulk of the year at Triple-A. He's solid defensively, has a good arm, and is coming off an .815 OPS in his first 22 Triple-A games. I'd like to see Garver get his chance sooner, but acquisitions could prevent that.

Zack Granite- First One Out

Maybe the most unknown commodity on this list, Granite is far from one to be overlooked. He was the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year and put up a career best .729 OPS at Double-A Chattanooga. He's not flashy at the plate, but his speed and defense will play at any level. In 127 games. he swiped 56 games and ripped off eight triples as well. For a big league club that has employed the likes of Shane Robinson and Robbie Grossman as 4th outfielders the past few years, Minnesota would be hard-pressed to do worse than their own internal speedster.

As noted above, this list might not have the top 100 prospect types that the 2016 version showed off, but there's a lot of big league talent here that can make an impact in an organization looking for difference makes.

2016 Midseason Top 15 Prospects Update

Here at Off The Baggy, covering the Minnesota Twins means checking in on everything from the big league club on down to the farm. With the major league team in the midst of an unfortunate season, it's hard to not get caught up already looking ahead to 2017. With the Twins graduating a handful of their top prospects, looking at who's next is plenty exciting.

Despite big names like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano no longer being considered prospects, the Twins have some serious firepower left on the farm. Shifting more towards pitchers at this point, the organization should have plenty of players to rely upon in the coming seasons. Before taking a look at where the rankings fall currently, you can find the 2016 Top 15 Prospects HERE, and the midseason 2015 Top 15 Prospects HERE.

With all of that out of the way, let's get into it. Your top 15 Minnesota Twins Prospects at the halfway point of 2016:

15. Jake Reed RP

Unfortunately, Reed struggled out of the gate. In his first 27.1 IP, he owned a 5.27 ERA. While his 29 strikeouts were a welcomed statistic, command was once again an issue. He gave up 16 earned runs while walking 12 batter. However, he's seemingly turned a corner of late. Over his last nine innings, he owns a 1.00 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to bat just .040/.194/.040 off of him. If he can continue to limit walks, he still should have a chance to reach Rochester by season's end.

14. Lewis Thorpe SP

It's hard to move Thorpe much as he's yet to pitch in 2016. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery and has had a couple of hiccups during the process. I believe at one point he came down with mono, and that obviously slowed the process. He's still got youth on his side, and should he make a return in 2016, his ceiling remains as high as ever.

13. Felix Jorge SP

The first new name in the midseason top 15, Jorge has absolutely earned his spot. At 22 years old, he's making his debut at High-A Fort Myers this season. He's made 10 starts thus far and owns a 1.64 ERA. His strikeout numbers sit at 7.5 K/9, and have remained virtually consistent since rookie ball. He's not going to be a frontline starter, but if Jorge can continue to replicate similar results, he'll be a solid rotation contributor in the middle to back end as he rises through the Twins system.

12. Nick Burdi RP

Burdi falls out of the top 10 after a less than ideal begin to 2016. He injured himself during spring training and then has dealt with arm injuries for most of the regular season. He's made just three appearances, and remains on the Double-A disabled list. His stuff is absolutely electric when on the mound, but he's really struggled to get there this season. After some control issues a season ago, he really needed to use this season as a springboard and that just hasn't happened.

11. Daniel Palka OF

Taking over the spot previously occupied by Adam Brett Walker, Palka has been more than a nice return to the Twins for Chris Herrmann. He currently leads the Southern League in home runs, and his power is plenty legit. He has strikeout tendencies very similar to Walker, but his on-base numbers tell a different tale, and his ratios are a bit better than the free swinger at Triple-A. I compared both Palka and Walker here, and if I'm taking a flier on one to hit, it's Palka.

10. Fernando Romero SP

Romero makes the biggest jump thus far on the prospect list. After being outside of my top 15 to start the season, he's been absolutely unhittable since returning to Cedar Rapids following Tommy John surgery. Romero didn't pitch in 2014, but it doesn't appear that he's missed a beat at all. Four starts in, he owns a 1.17 ERA along with an 8.2 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9. Romero put up solid numbers as a 19 year old at Cedar Rapids in 2014, so him dominating the level isn't completely unexpected. Regardless, should he continue to progress like this from Tommy John, he's going to force himself into the Twins plans.

9. Alex Kirilloff RF/1B

The 15th overall draft pick by the Minnesota Twins in the 2016 Major League draft, Kirilloff may immediately take over the title of top power prospect. He's probably going to skip the Gulf Coast League and head right to Elizabethton. A high schooler, he'll have a significant learning curve at the pro level. He's already got tremendous pop in his bat and it should translate to wood just fine. He's likely destined for a corner spot at the big league level, but that hit tool is going to carry him on its own for a while.

8. Kohl Stewart SP

Moving up one spot, Stewart has now made the jump to Double-A Chattanooga. Of the Twins pitching prospects, he's been the one considered to be a frontline starter most often. His strikeout numbers improved this season as he started out at Fort Myers. He earned a promotion though after a few rocky starts and then turned in a clunker in his Double-A debut. He settled in during start number two and should spend the rest of the season with Chattanooga. I want to believe in Stewart, but the strikeouts need to come, and the level of dominance needs to rise if he's going to fulfill that frontline potential for Minnesota.

7. J.T. Chargois RP

Chargois made his MLB debut in June and it went hardly as planned. However, he should be back up with the big club sooner rather than later, and the expectation should be that he's capable of helping the Twins. At Triple-A Rochester in 2016, Chargois has struck out everyone to the tune of a 14.6 K/9. He's controlled walks and he's worked out of the closer role. With Glen Perkins looking like a serious shutdown candidate for the year, I'd be far from shocked to see the Twins using Chargois to save games in September.

6. Jorge Polanco 2B

The only reason Polanco is this low on the list is because of the talent ahead of him. He's gone from being a guy that plenty of organizations have, to one that should be playing every day in the big leagues. Polanco has been jerked around by the Twins but is slashing .315/.380/.500 at Triple-A Rochester. He's capable with the bat at the big league level right now, and needing to play second base, a fit with the Twins is a tough ask. If Minnesota moves Eduardo Nunez (they should), it needs to be Polanco that picks up the extra playing time.

5. Stephen Gonsalves SP

Right now, Gonsalves has no business being at High-A Fortt Myers. He's made 11 starts this seasons totaling a 2.33 ERA and has complimented that with a 9.0 K/9. He dominated the level a season ago and is ready for a challenge at Double-A. He was selected to represent the Miracle at the Florida State League All Star Game (that the Miracle are hosting), so he's not going anywhere before then. From what I've been told by a source, his promotion should come almost immediately after the All Star game. That would put him on pace to be an option for Triple-A (or the Twins) in late 2017.

4. Nick Gordon SS

Standing pat at number four, Gordon has had a nice 2016. It could look a lot better however had his last few weeks not been so rough. From April 7 through May 19, Gordon owned a .331/.370/.472 slash line for the Miracle. Since however, he's hit just .189/.268/.243 with 3 extra base hits, 18 strikesouts, and just five walks. His glove was always expected to be ahead of his bat, but he's totaled 13 errors in 46 games already after putting up 18 in 118 games at Cedar Rapids a year ago. I'm not worried about Gordon, but he's probably not as ready for Double-A as he once appeared early in the season.

3. Tyler Jay SP

If there's a reason Jay doesn't move up, it's solely because of the talent ahead of him. Give me a thre headed monster from the top three Twins prospects and I'm ok. After working solely as a reliever in college, Jay has looked the part of a dominant starter in 2016. At High-A Fort Myers, he owns a 2.18 ERA and a 9.2 K/9. Since May 4, he's made 6 starts and owns a 0.70 ERA, .205/.266/.227 slash line against, and a 9.9 K/9. He too should see a promotion to Double-A in short order, and I'd still bet on Jay making it to the big leagues ahead of both Stewart and Gonsalves.

2. Max Kepler OF

Debuting in 2015, Kepler wasn't going to become a regular until this season at the earliest. With Miguel Sano on the disabled list, he's been afforded that opportunity. It's fair to expect him to take his lumps, and he definitely has. Now with a handful of starts under his belt, Kepler owns a paltry .189/.271/.321 line at the big league level. His on-base skills will always help him though, and he's taking solid at bats. He'll continue to get his feet wet and be just fine. I'd be pretty disappointed if the Twins sent him back to Triple-A at any point during this lost season.

1. Jose Berrios SP

Easily the most anticipated big league debut after Sano and Buxton, Berrios got his shot early with the Twins. In four big league starts, he's compiled a 10.20 ERA backed by an ugly 7.2 BB/9. The strikeouts have been there, to the tune of a 12.0 K/9, but he's gotten himself in danger far too often. The problem is that has continued since his demotion back to Triple-A. He owns a 4.99 ERA since returning to Rochester, and has nibbled at the strike zone far more than you'd like. He's been more susceptible to the home run this season and the command issues haven't helped that. The ceiling is still incredibly high, but his two biggest detractors have reared their ugly head.

There you have it, the Off The Baggy Top 15 prospects at the midway point of the 2016 season. The next update will come at some point over the offseason. With the Twins looking to right the ship at the highest level, they'll again need to hope that a handful of their developed talent pays off for them.

Twins Making Sense Of Law

Keith Law, ESPN's Baseball Insider, posted his much-anticipated prospect analysis this week. First he launched his 2016 organizational rankings, and then he followed up with his pre-2016 top 100. With the Twins once again having a loaded system, ranked third overall by law, they had seven prospects show up in the top 100. As with all rankings, there's discussion, and that's where Off The Baggy comes in.

Looking at the organization rankings, there's not much to complain about with the Twins positioning. Despite graduating Miguel Sano and a host of other prospects a season ago, Minnesota trailed only the Braves and Dodgers when it came to organizational rankings. The Twins seven top 100 prospects also was in a three-way tie for first (with the other aforementioned organizations) as the most by any team in baseball.

The prospects themselves are where things start to get interesting for Law. As with all players, some evaluators are going to see certain skills and detractors in a higher light. Law has provided some ammunition for discussion, while also being incredibly fair across the board.

He has Byron Buxton sitting second behind only the Dodger Corey Seager on his top 100 list. Seager plays shortstop and is regarded as a premier talent. While Buxton's plus-plus tools also put him in the premier category, it's hard to ignore the hiccup that was his MLB debut. No doubt Minnesota is hoping for better out of their former first round pick, and it should come in 2016.

Despite his debut, Law still sees plenty of promise in the Georgia native. He notes, "a star even if he hits .240, as that would probably come with 50 steals, 10-12 homers and big defensive contributions." That being the floor for Buxton puts the Twins in a very good place. Eduardo Escobar smacked 12 longballs a year ago, and Buxton's smooth swing should help him replicate at least that amount. He has a good feel for hitting at the plate, and very well could hit for average if things click.

Over the past two years, Law has been incredibly tough on Jose Berrios. If there's a prospect I've been opposite on, it's this one. Law doesn't like Berrios' arm action, and his short stature leads to flat fastballs. He notes that as Berrios reaches the big leagues, the balls leaving the park could turn into a problem.

Despite having kept the ball in the park on his way up the ladder, Berrios continue to draw Law's ire. He gave up 12 homers a year ago across Double and Triple-A. That number could inflate to the high teens in the big leagues, but I'd guess it still shouldn't be much of a concern. A season ago, Law noted Berrios being a third starter at best. Where things stand now, I'd hope he sees him as a two at worst, with ace potential. He has the makings of a very, very good option for Minnesota.

Following the top two guys, Max Kepler squeezed into the top 50 for Law as well. He put himself on the map big time a season ago, and Kepler looks like he could be a real star. He does so many things really well, and he doesn't do too much poorly. Kepler should have plenty of opportunity to make waves for the Twins as early as this year, and all of the waiting on him may finally come to fruition.

On the back side of the top 50, Law's first inclusion was somewhat curious to me. Putting Kohl Stewart at 53 seems to be incredibly high. The Texas native has had two seasons with declining strikeout rates and shoulder issues. He's been billed as a potential ace, but his low level struggles should be serious reason for pauses.

At some point, Stewart is going to have to step out from behind the narrative that he's still transitioning from a football player, and he's going to need to make his splash. doing so in 2016 at Double-A would be a very good start, and no doubt get him back on track. Depending on how the year ahead goes, he could be an option for the Twins in 2017, or he could fall even further off of my radar.

Rounding out the group is a trio of interesting names. Tyler Jay appears first and remains tough to project. As a left-handed reliever, he's probably close to big league ready. Minnesota no doubt drafted him in the first round to start however, and that transition is going to take more time.

I've talked plenty about Jorge Polanco, and he remains one of the most interesting prospects for me in the year ahead. I'd contend he could start on a handful of big league teams at second base right now. The Twins don't have room, and I'd struggle to move Trevor Plouffe to put Polanco and his questionable arm at the hot corner. He's either going to hit his way into the Twins plans, or maybe more likely, into some other organizations.

Last but not least, Nick Gordon makes the list. Of all the Twins prospects Law included, it's Gordon that probably gets chastised the most. No longer seen as an All-Star type by the ESPN Insider, Law suggest Gordon is "very likely to remain at shortstop and become an above-average defender there."

Noting the change in long term belief in regards to Gordon, I struggle to see what Law is making such a brash decision off of. His evaluation is sound, but a half of a season at Low-A Cedar Rapids that started slow shouldn't be worthy of a complete reversal. Gordon slashed roughly the same at Low-A as he did in Rookie Ball, and it was his slow start that no doubt caused the dip in batting average. At just 20 years old, it's probably best to hold out on dropping his season until we see what he can do at either Fort Myers or Chattanooga in the not so distant future.

As the dust settles, Minnesota once again proves to have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. The Twins have done a great job of drafting talent of late, and it has no doubt contributed to the renewed excitement around the ballclub. We should continue to see those efforts pay off in the years to come.