Minnesota Pushing for a Pen Advantage

Remember when the Minnesota Twins had a terrible bullpen and it was one of the worst in baseball? That’s how the 2019 Major League Baseball started, and aside from Taylor Rogers, Rocco Baldelli was chucking darts when turning to his relievers. At the trade deadline the Twins were supposed to upgrade their staff, and while they got one burned on one deal, they did accomplish that through another. More than anything though, Minnesota has benefitted from internal talent rising to the top. Against big names in the Yankees pen, could the Twins really have an advantage?

You know the names in New York. Aaron Boone will be able to turn to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino. Throw in the strikeout rates of both Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle as well and you’re looking at quite a daunting group. Boone’s relief corps is battle tested, veteran laden, and built to propel them through a few weeks in October. There’s zero denying the talent and ability of this group.

Statistically speaking, Minnesota has been better, however. We’re splicing the season into a two-month sample, but since the trade deadline the Twins owns the second-best bullpen in baseball (trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays). At 4.0 fWAR, Minnesota is nearly two full wins clear of the trio tied for third (Athletics, Dodgers, and Yankees). WAR can be a misleading compiling numerator, but the Twins have generated their result in just 214.1 IP. That’s 50 innings shy of the first place Rays (who they trail by just 0.1 fWAR), and 25 innings below the output of the Yankees. Quality in less quantity is something we’re seeing develop in this space.

This isn’t your Minnesota arms of yesteryear development either; there’s no smoke and mirrors happening. Baldelli’s relief corps has a 10.2 K/9 (top 10) and the lowest walk rate in the sport (2.27). It’s not a ground ball dominated approach, but a 13.3% HR/FB effort is the 6^th lowest in baseball (and 3^rd best among Postseason teams). Although six other units have posted lower ERAs, Minnesota’s league leading FIP substantiates that this performance is for real.

When poking holes in performance there is some potential cause for concern. The Twins are in the bottom five when it comes to surrendered hard hit rate, and while their BABIP is in the top third, it’s not unexpected following hard contact. Thwarting that though, is the quality of offerings sent up to the plate. Minnesota leads baseball with a 34.7% chase rate. Hitters expanding the zone is also accompanied by a whiff rate of 13.2%, or 5^th best in baseball. Opposing batters make contact just 73.3% of the time (9^th lowest) but given the first two inputs, they’re often attacking what would be described as a pitcher’s pitch.

Breaking it down to singular players, Tyler Duffey is second in baseball in terms of fWAR since the trade deadline. Before giving up a homer to Jorge Soler in his final outing of the year, he’d gone 23.2 IP (dating back to July 28) without surrendering a run. He gave up just 11 hits in that span and owned an insane 40/5 K/BB. Taylor Rogers and Zack Littell have also been top 30 relievers since the deadline, and reflect the group being a strong sum of its total parts.

It’s hard to suggest that the emergence of strong performances from Twins arms is as beneficial as what New York can turn to. Similarly, to the rotation questions for the Yankees, Minnesota’s stance is more of opportunity than favorability. That being said, it’s very clear the skill gap here is minimal at best and things could swing either way. Credit must be given to the development of the Twins arms, and the position they now find themselves in because of it.

A few years ago, the Chicago Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres in an exchange to grab a World Series on the left arm of Aroldis Chapman. Boone is going to have his horses ready to go, and New York can willingly shorten a game with relievers. Although the Twins don’t have an Ottavino or Britton, they do have a Duffey and Rogers that look to provide the same value with the generic brand label.

When dissecting much of this series it becomes abundantly clear how close these two opponents are. The bullpen being as such would’ve been a laughable suggestion a few months ago, but here we are.

World Series Highlights Relief Perfection

Remember when the Baltimore Orioles were eliminated in the American League Wild Card game by the Toronto Blue Jays? Not only was it heartbreak, but manager Buck Showalter never used closer Zach Britton. The best reliever in the major leagues this season went unused in a game that was never guaranteed to be followed by another. It looked dumb then, and has been the highlighted scenario in the World Series.

You'll often hear of managers failing to go to their closer before the 9th inning, or saving them when on the road. Both the Chicago Cubs Joe Maddon and Cleveland Indians Terry Francona have made a mockery of traditional (and dated) bullpen usage over the course of the World Series.

Throughout the course of the five games, Andrew Miller has been Francona's go to. While not technically the Indians closer, he's easily their best relief pitcher. He's thrown 5.1 IP through the first five games and has struck out eight batters walking just two and giving up just one run. Regardless of it being early or late, Francona has given Miller the ball in the highest leverage situations. Over the course of the playoffs, he's entered as early as the 5th inning, and as late as the 8th.

On the other side of the field, Maddon got on board during game five. Needing to survive to last another game, the Cubs manager went with his rocket throwing closer Aroldis Chapman in the 7th inning. He asked the Cuban Missile to get 8 outs, and even had him bat for himself in the 8th inning. Chapman pitched arguably the most important 2.2 innings of the Cubs season, struck out four, and gave up just one hit. When Chicago needed outs the most, they went to the guy that generally racks them up in bunches.

Now, to be fair, both bullpens have had some suspect usage over the course of the Fall Classic. Francona has generally operated with the belief that both Miller and closer Cody Allen are the only relief arms capable of getting Cleveland outs. With a 6 run lead in game four, and with Corey Kluber rolling, he went to Miller for two innings of work. Despite a six to nothing tally in favor of the Indians at home in game one, Francona went to both Miller and Allen for a combined three innings as well. He's given the Cubs extended and unnecessary looks at both pitchers at times, as well as not having his two best options available in arguably more pressing situations.

For Maddon, it hasn't been so much that there's been bullpen over-reliance as it has been a realization that the Cubs pen is really what it is. Instead of having a Miller and Allen type, the Cubs are pretty much whatever they can get until Chapman can enter a game. Their first relievers most nights have been C.J. Edwards, Mike Montgomery, and Justin Grimm. That group is capable, but far from unhittable.

Aside from the minor disagreements with usage, there's nothing else to surmise from the way both teams have used their relievers in the World Series other than it's something that more teams need to get on board with. Sure, a baseball game ends after the 9th inning, but suggesting that a game is always won or lost at that period of time is quite the goofy suggestion. If you are looking to lock down a big situation earlier in the game, you should absolutely do so.

With statistics being what they are, a closer is always going to look at saves and opportunities as a bargaining chip when it comes time to be paid. While that's absolutely fair, it shouldn't be the only thing that's considered. The Indians had to give up quite the haul for Andrew Miller, and he's been compensated quite well across his career. Yeah, it's nice to increase a save tally for your personal records, but Andrew Miller has just one this entire Postseason, and he's easily been the most important reliever to step foot on the mound.