Twins Arbitration Decisions Loom

 

Today Major League Baseball Trade Rumors put out their numbers for projected arbitration salaries. While they aren’t going to be spot on, the website is often seen as the gold standard in this space. Minnesota has some big names to decide on.

#MNTwins project arbitration salaries from @mlbtraderumors:

Buxton $7.3M
Rogers $6.7M
Duffey $3.7M
Gant $3.7M
Garver $3.1M
Arraez $2.0M
Thielbar $1.2M
Astudillo $1.2M
Cave $1.1M
Minaya $1.1M
Coulombe $800k
Refsnyder $800k

— Ted (@tlschwerz) October 11, 2021

The most notable eligible player here is also the one guy deserving of a long term extension. Byron Buxton will at worst be tendered a new deal, and his projected $7.3 million would be a steal. So too would a new long-term extension with Minnesota for anything less than $200 million. The only question here is whether a contract is agreed to with the Twins, and if they’ll wind up paying him for the duration of 2022.

Taylor Rogers gets the second biggest number on Minnesota’s bill after being named a first-time All-Star in 2021. His $6.7 million seems like a steal in terms of value and talent but coming off an injury that shut down his season, it’s worth wondering if the Twins front office will feel the same way. Rogers should be back if there’s belief he’ll be healthy. Trading him with injury uncertainty could be a tough path. Ultimately, I think he returns.

Both Tyler Duffey and Mitch Garver should be seen as favorable options to be back with the Twins. The former is a reliever with a high ceiling that lost his way at times during 2021. He could be dealt if Minnesota finds a willing partner, but the fit at the back end of the bullpen still remains great. Garver is arguably one of the best catchers in baseball, and although he could be coveted by the opposition in any deals Derek Falvey may try to swing, Minnesota will tender him a deal regardless.

It’s still surprising to me that J.A. Happ netted the Twins anything, and John Gant is certainly a few rungs up on that ladder. He wasn’t amazing by any means, but there’s plenty of usable ability there. The question for the Twins is what they see his path going forward being. If he’s a starter then the $3.7 million doesn’t seem egregious at all. If he’s a reliever, that’s a middle-relief arm that doesn’t possess a ton of upside. I’d lean towards keeping him, but also wouldn’t be shocked if the front office feels otherwise.

Minnesota will have easy decisions on Luis Arraez and Caleb Thielbar. At $2 million and under, both players provide well above that from a value perspective. The Twins may dangle Arraez this offseason on the trade market, but he’s also a strong candidate to remain an integral super-utility piece. Thielbar has made himself into a full-time big leaguer, and now he’ll get a payday for it. (An aside, both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have Luis Aaraez pre-arb until 2023, so he shouldn't need more than the MLB minimum.)

The trio of lower options include Juan Minaya, Danny Coulombe, and Rob Refsnyder. The first was arguably the Twins best reliever down the stretch and has pitched his way into the 2022 bullpen. Coulombe isn’t anything to get excited about, but he’s a fine option to round out a group that will need some cheaper arms as well. Refsnyder is an interesting case as he turned into a pumpkin following his return from the Injured List. Maybe Minnesota keeps him around as a depth outfielder, but Buxton or not, he can’t be the fourth option on this Major League roster.

That leaves just two guys who I see as obvious DFA candidates. It makes no sense for Minnesota to retain the services of either Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for more than $1 million each. To be frank, neither player fits the roster nor is worthy of a spot at the Major League minimum, but with arbitration eligibility, a non-tender is the way these have to go. Cave is no longer productive at the plate, at the novelty of Astudillo wore off a long time ago.

If this comes to fruition as outlined Minnesota would retain 10 of their 12 arbitration eligible players for a total of $60.4 million.

Trading Rogers is Risky for Twins

 

A handful of years back I wrote something along the lines of the Twins most necessary move was to deal Glen Perkins. He was competing at an All-Star level, and Minnesota was beyond terrible with no end in sight. A bad team didn’t need a closer, and the haul should’ve been handsome. In a similar spot, the Twins may be ill-advised to make that move with Taylor Rogers.

 

Yes, the Major League club is not good. No, the farm system doesn’t have a ton of immediate answers. This season isn’t going to result in a second-half turnaround, and a bullpen that’s already bad isn’t and hasn’t been saved by one good arm. The key difference here, however, is how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine view themselves in 2022.

 

Although good teams don’t necessarily need a closer, they absolutely need a strong bullpen. Moving Taylor Rogers with another year of team control, and as one of the most dominant relief arms in the sport, would suggest they don’t view a run coming in the year ahead either. Rocco Baldelli has seen his lineup come around over the past handful of weeks, but it’s still been pitching that has failed this club. While the rotation is chiefly to blame, supplementing and retooling the bullpen is a must for next season. Doing that with the additional hole that Rogers’ absence would cost becomes difficult.

 

This season Rogers owns a 2.65 ERA along with a 12.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. In 2020 he posted an outlying 4.05 ERA, but it was hiding a 2.84 FIP and still fell in line the strikeout and walk rates across his career. The uncharacteristic 1.500 WHIP got Taylor last year and pitching in a short season without opportunity for positive regression didn’t help. His counting numbers are now back to who he always has been, and what the expectation should be.

 

Baseball right now remains enamored with high leverage relievers. This winter we saw the Chicago White Sox drop $54 million on Liam Hendriks. I don’t now what Rogers will earn two seasons from now, but he’ll be hitting the free agent market at the same age Hendriks did this year. Saves are a goofy stat, but they do get paid for at least in arbitration, and Rogers currently has more than Hendriks did when he was signed by the South Siders.

 

Maybe a team will blow the Twins away with a couple of top tier prospects. That doesn’t seem like a great bet given the relief trade market often seems to be filled with organizations looking to be opportunistic and capitalize on a veteran’s immediate success without much of a long-term commitment. If Falvey can find a taker willing to pony up though, then that’s a move Minnesota should consider.

 

If flipping Rogers is being done because he fits the category of desirable asset and the return is just good enough, I’d hope that this front office would reconsider. Maybe they don’t have intentions to reload in 2022, or they see that as a lofty goal. Either way, venturing down the path to relevance in the season ahead gets unquestionable tougher by taking an arm like Rogers out of an already deficient area of this roster.

 

Maybe you shouldn’t pay for relief help. The Twins best bullpen acquisitions this year were a waiver claim and a guy that cost $2 million. You certainly shouldn’t piece out the pen before you have to when you’re trying to re-ignite it though.

Relief Provided in a Big Year for Twins

Going into 2019 one of the biggest storylines was that of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. New manager Rocco Baldelli had a rag tag group of arms, and there were more question marks than anyone would have liked. Fast forward a year and Wes Johnson transformed that narrative allowing 2020 to keep the unit entirely off the radar.

When the team broke from Spring Training down in Fort Myers last year, only six players were truly relievers. The group consisted of Taylor Rogers, Trevor Mayer, Blake Parker, Adalberto Mejia, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ryne Harper. Of those, only three remain.

Over the course of 2019 that unit took on a considerably different feeling. From one of uncertainty to a relative strength, new faces were added, and steps forward were taken. When the dust settled, Minnesota’s unit posted the 3^rd highest fWAR in baseball, and were on par with the vaunted Yankees relief corps. The 3.92 FIP was the best in baseball, and while they didn’t have the best strikeout rate, a 2.9 BB/9 led the sport as well.

Fast forward to today and the bullpen is all but settled. The Twins have some pieces to add on the roster, but this isn’t an area that needs work. With a 26-man roster for 2020, an eight-man staff to start out the year makes a good amount of sense. The names that make the most sense are Rogers, May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Cody Stashak, and Matt Wisler. As a holdover from 2019, Ryne Harper could also push to eek his way in.

This configuration includes hard throwers, bat missers, and guys with a strong ability to hit their spots. Breaking balls are present in the arms of Romo, Duffey, and Wisler. Littell and May can both shove, while arms like Rogers, Clippard, and Stashak are well rounded overall. This group doesn’t have names like Chapman or Britton, but you can bet that on performance alone, there’s household contributors to be utilized.

After needing to replace four-fifths of the starting rotation from last year, it’s there that the Twins will find the most question marks for the year ahead. Give credit to Wes Johnson stepping in and immediately establishing himself as a viable and impressive pitching coach at the Major League level. The rotation is now buoyed mainly by veterans, but the supplementation of younger arms will need to be positioned with opportunity for success.

Last season there was a good deal of changes made on the fly in the pen and being able to successfully navigate those waters provides a blueprint for the year ahead. No team will ever have enough pitching, and while Minnesota has flip-flopped the avenue in which they are needy, an infrastructure that fosters success is clearly in place.

We don’t yet know how the Twins relievers will perform in the year ahead, and volatility on that part of the roster is to be expected. Given where the narrative was just a season ago however, the development and change are to be celebrated.

Minnesota Pushing for a Pen Advantage

Remember when the Minnesota Twins had a terrible bullpen and it was one of the worst in baseball? That’s how the 2019 Major League Baseball started, and aside from Taylor Rogers, Rocco Baldelli was chucking darts when turning to his relievers. At the trade deadline the Twins were supposed to upgrade their staff, and while they got one burned on one deal, they did accomplish that through another. More than anything though, Minnesota has benefitted from internal talent rising to the top. Against big names in the Yankees pen, could the Twins really have an advantage?

You know the names in New York. Aaron Boone will be able to turn to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Adam Ottavino. Throw in the strikeout rates of both Chad Green and Tommy Kahnle as well and you’re looking at quite a daunting group. Boone’s relief corps is battle tested, veteran laden, and built to propel them through a few weeks in October. There’s zero denying the talent and ability of this group.

Statistically speaking, Minnesota has been better, however. We’re splicing the season into a two-month sample, but since the trade deadline the Twins owns the second-best bullpen in baseball (trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays). At 4.0 fWAR, Minnesota is nearly two full wins clear of the trio tied for third (Athletics, Dodgers, and Yankees). WAR can be a misleading compiling numerator, but the Twins have generated their result in just 214.1 IP. That’s 50 innings shy of the first place Rays (who they trail by just 0.1 fWAR), and 25 innings below the output of the Yankees. Quality in less quantity is something we’re seeing develop in this space.

This isn’t your Minnesota arms of yesteryear development either; there’s no smoke and mirrors happening. Baldelli’s relief corps has a 10.2 K/9 (top 10) and the lowest walk rate in the sport (2.27). It’s not a ground ball dominated approach, but a 13.3% HR/FB effort is the 6^th lowest in baseball (and 3^rd best among Postseason teams). Although six other units have posted lower ERAs, Minnesota’s league leading FIP substantiates that this performance is for real.

When poking holes in performance there is some potential cause for concern. The Twins are in the bottom five when it comes to surrendered hard hit rate, and while their BABIP is in the top third, it’s not unexpected following hard contact. Thwarting that though, is the quality of offerings sent up to the plate. Minnesota leads baseball with a 34.7% chase rate. Hitters expanding the zone is also accompanied by a whiff rate of 13.2%, or 5^th best in baseball. Opposing batters make contact just 73.3% of the time (9^th lowest) but given the first two inputs, they’re often attacking what would be described as a pitcher’s pitch.

Breaking it down to singular players, Tyler Duffey is second in baseball in terms of fWAR since the trade deadline. Before giving up a homer to Jorge Soler in his final outing of the year, he’d gone 23.2 IP (dating back to July 28) without surrendering a run. He gave up just 11 hits in that span and owned an insane 40/5 K/BB. Taylor Rogers and Zack Littell have also been top 30 relievers since the deadline, and reflect the group being a strong sum of its total parts.

It’s hard to suggest that the emergence of strong performances from Twins arms is as beneficial as what New York can turn to. Similarly, to the rotation questions for the Yankees, Minnesota’s stance is more of opportunity than favorability. That being said, it’s very clear the skill gap here is minimal at best and things could swing either way. Credit must be given to the development of the Twins arms, and the position they now find themselves in because of it.

A few years ago, the Chicago Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres in an exchange to grab a World Series on the left arm of Aroldis Chapman. Boone is going to have his horses ready to go, and New York can willingly shorten a game with relievers. Although the Twins don’t have an Ottavino or Britton, they do have a Duffey and Rogers that look to provide the same value with the generic brand label.

When dissecting much of this series it becomes abundantly clear how close these two opponents are. The bullpen being as such would’ve been a laughable suggestion a few months ago, but here we are.

Have Hildy, Won’t Travel

Fairly, the Minnesota Twins bullpen has been a lightning rod of discussion in 2019. From talks about what more could be done, to the breakdowns that have cost the club a couple of games, this group will remain under the microscope. With the bright lights on them, internally developed arms have been the anchors at the back of the group. Arguably the most impressive reliever has been Trevor Hildenberger, and that’s a development Twins fans can get behind.

Hildenberger was a 26-year-old pitching at Triple-A Rochester in 2017. He owned a 1.57 ERA across 171.2 minor league innings pitched, and as a 22^nd round pick out of Cal Berkeley, was never lauded as a top prospect. Despite an impressive 10.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in his time on the farm, he needed to scratch and claw his way up the ladder to the big leagues. Owning a low-90’s fastball, this was a sidearmer that does it through deception more than velocity. Plenty of things can go wrong for a guy like that, and after initial success, they did.

As a rookie in 2017, Hildenberger quickly became one of Paul Molitor’s favorite options out of the bullpen. Across 42 innings he posted a 3.21 ERA backed by a 3.02 FIP and 9.4 K/9 with a 1.3 BB/9. Essentially, he continued to be everything he was on the farm and then some. Going into 2018, Molitor continued to rely on his new toy, but this time likely rode him right into the ground. Posting a 2.06 ERA through his first 36 games, Trevor had been used in almost half of the Twins contests for a total of 39.1 IP. From June 30 forward, Molitor turned to Hildenberger another 37 times for a total of 33.2 IP that saw him turn in a 9.36 ERA.

Fast forward to 2019 and we’ve got a fresh Trevor Hildenberger with a few more pen options to turn to. On the season, Trevor has thrown 7.2 IP allowing no earned runs, striking out 11.7 per nine, and giving up free passes at just a 2.3 BB/9 clip. To put it mildly, Hildenberger has been nothing short of exceptional. We have been down this road before however, and Minnesota will need to monitor workload to avoid a second straight season of burnout.

The Twins have played 19 games thus far, and Hildenberger has pitched in 11 of them. The 19 inherited runners Trevor has been handed is the most in baseball, and his 14 inherited runners stranded is five more than Rangers reliever Shawn Kelley, who comes in second. Operating as the Twins fire man, Hildenberger has come in during the highest of leverage, and slammed the door at a relatively high clip.

It’s not so much that it’s a surprise Minnesota is getting solid production out of Hildenberger. He’s proven capable of performing in big moments for significant stretches over the course of his major league career. What we’ll need to keep tabs on, and be mindful of, is how much this could factor into potential issues down the stretch. Right now, Hildenberger, Taylor Rogers, and Blake Parker have been assets for Baldelli. Ryne Harper has been a nice surprise, and there’s some potential reinforcements on the way. Generating more production that that of just four or five arms is a must, however. Another option must emerge so that it’s not always on Hildenberger to carry the load.

Good news is that Minnesota looks to have their developed relief star back to himself in 2019. The flip side is that they’ll need to avoid going down a similar path to what took place a year ago. For now, though, take solace in the fact that when a sidearming righty runs in with runners on, they’re likely to wind up failing to cross home plate.

Twins Pen Proving Prowess

Going into the 2019 Major League Baseball season there were few areas on the Minnesota Twins 25-man roster that looked more questionable than the bullpen. After bringing in Blake Parker and no one else, the front office turned away from opportunities to significantly bolster their relief corps. We’re just eight games in at this point, but so far, it appears the decision to look internally may be a warranted one.

Despite Minnesota having a ridiculous amount of off days to kick off new year, Rocco Baldelli has turned to relievers for a grand total of 30.0 IP thus far. Across those innings, the new skipper’s faith has been rewarded to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, good for sixth best in baseball. From there, the secondary numbers tell a more cautionary tale, but it’s in avoiding real damage that the group has succeeded.

Coming into the game at key points following a starter’s initial work, avoiding blow ups or added opportunity is the goal of a reliever. Although the ERA of the group is a shiny tally, the strikeouts and walks are a bit concerning. Minnesota relievers have fanned just 7.8 batters per nine innings (22^nd) and have allowed 5.1 walks per nine (7^th worst). Dancing around the danger is a result of the ball staying in the yard. Owning the second-best HR/9 rate (0.30) in the big leagues, along with a major league best 3.0 HR/FB rate, has helped the pen to keep runners stranded.

Usually working with runners on base is a less than idea reality, but if you’re going to work around it, generating soft contact is a must. The 19.5% hard hit rate is a major league low by nearly 7%, and it’s allowed this group plenty of opportunity for outs when the ball is put in play. Over the past two seasons, the Twins have shifted more than almost any other team in baseball. By playing to the percentages, while generating suboptimal contact, you can expect a good deal of success.

Obviously as the season goes on and the sample size grows, a 5.0 BB/9 rate won’t be sustainable. Minnesota needs guys coming on that can put the ball by hitters and send them back to the dugout. Given the relative uncertainty of the group and specific pitchers, handing out free passes is also not a good plan. Those things do need to change, but there’s a pretty good skeleton to work from at this point.

Baldelli, and Wes Johnson, will be tasked with empowering their staff all season long. Parker is far from a proven closer, May is still getting settled, Mejia is new to relieving, and Harper is still more story than track record. Trust will be built up well into the summer, but it’s also been displayed early. Between letting Adalberto Mejia come back after a long outing to get pivotal outs against the Phillies or asking curveball master Ryne Harper to get out of a high leverage jam ,the Twins staff is setting forth a plan with eyes on October.

Given the relative volatility of relievers, and even more so when they are green and unexperienced, keeping regression at bay is a must. Taylor Rogers looks like a bonafide star, and Trevor Hildenberger has become a proven commodity. The rest of the group following their lead and giving Rocco a greater sense of comfort should build rapport for necessary work months from now.

The Twins relievers have been great in the results department to date, even if there’s warts under the surface. The opportunities will remain present, and the belief in these guys from the front office will be a key focus the rest of the way.

Twins Developments Worth Watching

There's no denying that the 2018 Minnesota Twins fell short of expectations. This club came into the year having played in the Postseason a season ago, and they were looking to target the Cleveland Indians at the top of the AL Central division. Winning just 78 games, that didn't happen, but there was plenty for this group to hang their hats on.

Obviously a season in which we saw Paul Molitor's squad take a step backwards, there's a few key areas needing improvement. Before getting into those narratives however, we need to take a look at which positive launching points could loom large for the offseason and year ahead.

Kyle Gibson

Mid-way through the 2017 Major League Baseball regular season, it looked as though the former 1st round draft pick would be a non-tender candidate at the end of the year. Then things clicked, and he posted a 3.76 ERA over his final 13 starts. What's only made it look better, is that Gibson has carried the strong performance into 2018.

He wrapped up the year trailing only Jose Berrios in terms of fWAR among Twins pitchers, and his 3.62 ERA was easily a career best. The FIP and xFIP numbers suggest there's some room for regression, but it isn't too worrisome. Another key development is that Gibson showed a heightened ability to get batters out on his own. With a career high 8.2 K/9, his strikeout numbers were notable for the first time in his career. Thanks to the emergence of Gibson, and presence of both Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, the Twins rotation is in a good place.

Jake Cave

In baseball, you are rarely afforded multiple significant opportunities to make an impact. After being pulled from the Yankees glut of outfielders, the Twins afforded Cave an opportunity and he ran with it. As a 25 year-old rookie, he's a bit past the typical prospect shine. That said, he posted a more than enticing .797 OPS and showed plenty of power potential.

Right now, he's locked in as nothing lower than the 4th outfielder for the Twins going into 2019. Cave took the run likely tabbed for Zack Granite coming into the season, and he could very well push Robbie Grossman out of the organization as well. If there's an area to focus on when it comes to development, it's easily plate discipline. A 102/18 K/BB ratio leaves plenty of room for a higher level of on-base prowess to rear its head.

Taylor Rogers

Losing a bullpen piece like Ryan Pressly was going to create opportunity for another arm to step up, and Rogers did in a big way. Leading the Twins in fWAR out of the pen, Taylor posted a career best 2.63 ERA. It was the third straight season in which he's lowered his ERA, and he finished with a career best 9.9 K/9. Although velocity isn't his game, he gets pitches by batters, and doesn't give up free passes.

On top of being dominant as a whole, Rogers wasn't simply a LOOGY either. Sure, he nuked lefties to the tune of a .428 OPS, but he only allowed righties to post a .643 OPS against him in the process. Across over 68 innings this season, he only allowed three longballs, and he pitched his way to the back of the Minnesota pen.

Eddie Rosario

Spanning the group of exciting prospects that rose the Twins ranks together, it's probably a bit surprising that Rosario has emerged the most. That said, we're absolutely at that point in their collective development. After an .836 OPS season in 2017, Rosario solidified his ability by performing at an All-Star level in 2018.

From where I sit, I don't think there's much more to the ceiling of the Minnesota left fielder, but the floor shouldn't be significantly lower either. A guy that has a cannon in the outfield, and can hit as a middle-of-the-order threat, he's going to be a guy that makes sense for a long term extension. Rosario can be a star for the Twins, and that came somewhat out of nowhere.

Minnesota and the Arms Race

Over the past few seasons, it's been fun to watch the emergence of a few arms for the Minnesota Twins. While starting pitching is obviously the premium you'd like to corner, talent in the relief corps is where some unusual suspects have emerged. From Ryan Pressly to Trevor Hildenberger, the 2018 culprit is a guy that already showed some promise a season ago.

Lefty Taylor Rogers has become a mainstay in the Twins bullpen, and after a 3.07 ERA across 55.2 IP during 2017, that was a realistic expectation. As a 27 year-old without much prospect fanfare though, it was safe to question whether the numbers could hold. Utilized best as a lefty on lefty specialist last year, the 3.4 BB/9 provided some reason for pause. While Rogers enjoyed a sparkling ERA, the 4.09 FIP told a different story, and the 7.9 K/9 was nearly a 2.0 K/9 dropoff from his rookie campaign.

Fast forward to 2018 and Rogers looks the part of a difference maker. On the year, he owns a 2.92 ERA across 61.2 IP. His 9.9 K/9 is a career high while the 2.0 BB/9 is a career low. In a credit to Taylor, he's also handled himself very well against batters from both sides of the plate this season. Seeing 136 plate appearances versus righties, he's given up a .675 OPS. Against lefties in 102 plate appearances opponents have tallied a .439 OPS. Those numbers are both down nearly 100 points from where they were in the same situations a season ago.

Judging by the splits, it's safe to suggest that Taylor can be much more than a LOOGY for Minnesota. The former 11th round pick probably wasn't assumed to be a back end of the bullpen option, but he's certainly pitched himself into the high leverage conversation. Despite not being cut from the blazing fastball cloth, Rogers has turned to pitch quality in order to get big league batters out.

Improving on his pitches as a whole, batters have helped to advance his cause on the mound as well. A 32% chase rate is a new career high, and he is now getting swinging strikes 10.9% of the time (a 3% jump from his rookie season). The former Wildcat is seeing contact against him at the lowest rate of his career, and batters are generating hard contact only 31.2% of the time (which has also led to a career low 6.7 HR/FB).

With Minnesota having transformed the bullpen yet again this year, 2019 is going to be rip with new opportunity. Trevor Hildenberger, Addison Reed, and Rogers are among the few certainties. From there the front office will need to acquire or decide upon internal options once again. Having a guy like Rogers step up into a role that can provide accountability from the get go is a very nice development.

No matter what level of loss is experience during a down season, being able to generate productivity and some level of certainty for the future is a must. Minnesota has a few areas they can point to along that thread from 2018, and Rogers should be chief among them.

Emergence of Arms

The Minnesota Twins went the route of signing multiple veterans on one year deals to supplement their relief corps for 2018. Now that the season has taken a different turn, all of those players have been shipped out to greener pastures. For 2019 and beyond, a goal of the organization has to be finding the next Trevor Hildenberger or Ryan Pressly. As things stand currently, there's a duo of dandies that have begun to stand above the rest.

Whether or not the Twins have a proven closer going into 2019 isn't of much worry to me. More importantly, does the club have a handful of guys capable of pitching in high leverage situations. Despite his stumbles at times down the stretch, Trevor Hildenberger has rounded out into exactly that type of player. Addison Reed will return for year two, and the hope is that he'd rebound to look more like his former self. The Twins should be feeling that they can turn to the likes of Trevor May and Taylor Rogers in those situations as well.

Rogers was an 11th round pick back in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. He's now 27 years old and in his third major league season. Despite posting a 3.44 ERA (which is higher than the 3.07 mark from 2017), his secondary numbers are outstanding. The 2.41 FIP is a career low and comes in 15th among all qualified big league relievers. His 10.3 K/9 is a full strikeout higher than his career average, and his 2.2 BB/9 is a new career best as well.

As a lefty Rogers has proved serviceable against hitters from both sides of the plate. Left-handed hitters have zero chance, owning just a .422 OPS, but the .781 OPS to righties isn't awful either. He's giving up both the fewest hits and homers of his career, and it's hard to be anything less than excited about his outlook.

Owning just 93.8 mph average velocity on his fastball, it's not that Rogers is much of a flamethrower. With his long and lanky stature, he has a good bit of deception working in his favor. The arm slot hides the ball well, and he can get in on hitters in a hurry. I'd prefer not to see Minnesota tab Rogers solely for a 9th inning role, but he's far more than a standard LOOGY as well. Deploying him in a role similar to Ryan Pressly, just a fireman to get guys out, should yield plenty positive results.

From the other side of the glove, the recently rehabbed Trevor May has been fantastic. It's just been 9.2 IP over the course of 9 appearances, but May is laying waste to opposing hitters. An 11.2 K/9 is enticing, but the 1.9 BB/9 is a new career best that really jumps off the page. Working solely as a reliever in 2016 prior to Tommy John surgery, May's profile had a lot to like. The strikeouts were there, and the FIP suggested the 5.27 ERA wasn't entirely his fault. That said, he was giving up too many walks (3.6 BB/9) and the 1.5 HR/9 was a problem.

There's reason to like May's profile as a starter, but it's hard to ignore what he can provide out of the bullpen. On the season, he's generating whiffs nearly 20% of the time, and hitters are chasing his pitches just under 40% of the time. He's shaved 10% off of his allowed contact rate (63%) and the nearly 95 mph fastball velocity matches up with where he was prior to surgery.

Acquired as a top prospect years ago, Minnesota likely had visions of May being an impact starter. If he's capable of providing this profile in a more lengthy role that's one thing, but if he's a back end option I'd prefer to see him stick in relief. May has the repertoire and output of a guy who can close out games in the 9th, or be an upper echelon setup man. Again, this is a very small sample size thus far in 2018, but continuing through September would only give steam to the hype train.

Heading into 2019, the Twins will need to solidify a rotation that has more questions than answers once again. The bullpen has been an area needing improvement in recent years though, and seeing some internal arms step up and take command is more than encouraging. It hurt to lose quality pieces this year, but credit those who have stepped up and made the most of new found opportunity.

Twins Pen Showing Its True Colors

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins had one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Just narrowly missing out on the playoffs, a better relief corps could have been enough to get them over the hump. This season there were some holdovers and some dart throws to the pen, but no player has been more important, both in reality and principle, than Taylor Rogers.

Rogers, a 25 year old rookie, has now pitched 35.1 innings for Paul Molitor's club. An 11th round draft pick out of Kentucky in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, Rogers went from minor league starter to big league reliever. Posting strong numbers at Double and Triple-A the past two seasons, Rogers looked deserving of a chance, but one that likely was destined to come in the pen.

If there's been something that's held true over his minor league career, it's been a level of consistency from Rogers. At Double-A New Britain in 2014, Rogers posted a 7.0 K/9 with a 2.3 BB/9 to total a 3.29 ERA. He followed that up a season ago with Triple-A Rochester to the tune of a 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and a 3.98 ERA. Although nothing necessarily stood out as dominant, it was apparent that Rogers had honed his stuff to the level that he was able to compete as he rose the organization ladder.

In reaching the big leagues though, it's in the pen that Rogers has taken a step forward.

Generally, pitchers will watch their numbers play up in relief. Being able to throw harder for a shorter period of time, the results generally improve. I've pegged Rogers as a solid relief option for the Twins for a while now, and through this season, he's made good on that bet. Thus far, the former Wildcat owns a 2.80 ERA and has pushed his strikeout rate to 9.2 per 9 while decreasing his walk total to just 1.3 BB/9. in the midst of his impressive big league performance, Rogers owned a 16.0 scoreless inning streak, and struck out 18 while walking just one over that time frame.

To summarize, Taylor Rogers has been nothing short of exceptional for the Twins.

As I mentioned earlier though, Rogers signifies more than just a success story for Minnesota. He's part of a bigger puzzle piece that both Paul Molitor and the organization have to be willing to rely upon. Taylor Rogers is a product of development with the Twins, and one that has resulted in a quality relief arm. The reality is that there are significantly more on the way, but none that are being given the same belief or opportunity.

Just a level down, the Twins have J.T. Chargois dominating Triple-A. He was the lone organizational representative in the Futures Game, and he has the makings of a future closer. Through 100 games on the season, Minnesota has allowed Chargois just two big league outs. Despite owning a 1.12 ERA with an 11.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 at Rochester, Chargois opportunities has yet to be recalled.

Another level down, Trevor Hildenberger, Zack Jones, and Jake Reed are experiencing similar success at Double-A Chattanooga. Working as the closer, Hildenberger owns a 0.70 ERA, has tallied 16 saves, and is striking out more than 10 per nine innings. Jones, now healthy after returning from the Brewers organization following a Rule 5 selection, owns a 1.26 ERA through 14.1 IP. His 10+ K/9 has also played well in the Southern League. Rounding out the group, Reed owns a 3.88 ERA, that has been a 2.54 ERA across his last 28.1 IP. In totality, the three of them have consistently outperformed the competition of their current level.

If Rogers has taught the Twins anything, it's that they need to trust their own process (or part of it). Minnesota has failed to develop a quality starter for quite some time now (here's to hoping Jose Berrios breaks that trend), but the relief options have been promising. Michael Tonkin was underutilized a season ago, but didn't have the ceiling of any of the aforementioned names either. Now though, with a bad team and mediocre pen, it's time to promote more of those from the lineage of Rogers.

There's no reason Hildenberger, Jones, and Reed aren't at Triple-A. There's reason to suggest that they could even make the leap to the big league level at this point. Chargois should be up and given run as well. Through 100 games, the Twins haven't been very good, and the ship isn't going to be turned around. A season from now though, it's these names that should anchor what could be a pen comprised of arms with much higher ceilings, and getting them situated now makes way too much sense.

Minnesota had some nice hits on players like Buddy Boshers, Fernando Abad, and Brandon Kintzler, but they mean little going forward. It's time to trust the process that Taylor Rogers is proving has worked, and take off the training wheels hitched to some very projectable pieces that will be incredibly valuable in the years ahead.

Twins Showing Assumed Colors

The 2016 Major League Baseball season wasn't supposed to go like this for the Minnesota Twins, but then again, maybe it was. Reliant upon an influx of youth, Paul Molitor's club was expected to score runs, and do so in bunches. Pitching should've been an improved aspect, but still could've been an assumed deficiency for this club. Through the first half however, nothing went right, right up until the end.

As the dust settled and the 2016 season enters the All Star Break, the Minnesota Twins find themselves owners of just 32 wins through 88 games. It's the second worst mark in all of baseball, and the worst record in the American League. 20 games back in the AL Central, the club's 2016 efforts are all but null and worthless at this point.

What happened over the final two weeks of the first half though tells a different narrative. Once the calendar turned to July, the assumed Twins showed up.

It took Paul Molitor's club 70 games to score double digit runs for the first time in 2016. From July 1 through the 10th, Minnesota accomplished that feat four times in 10 games. A club that came into July with a run differential of -112, has drastically changed that total with a +41 run differential through their first ten games.

During the span of solid play from the Twins, Minnesota has gotten it done against two different forms of competition as well. Winning a season best three straight series, the Twins have knocked off the Texas Rangers twice (owners of the American League's best record), while also trumping the Oakland Athletics. When looking at the three losses as well, the Twins dropped those contests by a combined four runs.

Entering the year, the narrative for the Twins is that they would hit enough to score plenty, but that they'd likely need to in order to combat some likely pitching woes. Standing 17th in the majors with 395 runs scored is not an ideal place, but its indicative of a club that has gotten too little early on from their relied upon youth. Through the recent surge however, it's been those players that have absolutely carried the load.

At the forefront has been German-born superstar Max Kepler. A grand slam in the final game of the first half put a nice stamp on a breakout campaign thus far. He's experienced some ups and downs, but his production for the Twins has absolutely been a welcomed reality. Despite batting just .216 in the first 10 games of July, Kepler owns a .940 OPS and has launched five homers.

Fellow young outfielder Byron Buxton has slowly but surely adjusted to the big league game. He was shelved over the past couple of contests after a new bruise following a wall collision, but his play at the plate has picked up. Riding a six game hitting streak into the break, Buxton has slashed .348/.400/.609 during that span. It's come with four doubles and a triple while striking out just five times and walking twice. He's dramatically decreased the strikeout totals, sitting down in just 32% of his plate appearances since his recall as opposed to striking out in 49% of his plate appearances to start the season.

Then there's the bopper that is Miguel Sano. Probably assumed to fly by 30 home runs, Sano was dealt a less than ideal situation to start the year by having to move to right field. Now fresh off the disabled list and back in the infield, he's slashed .282/.391/.538 in 10 games since his return. Settling back in to the middle of Paul Molitor's lineup, Sano has crushed three homers while driving in nine runs since the 1st of July.

A somewhat surprising form of production has come from the forgotten Kennys Vargas. Given playing time with the departure of Oswaldo Arcia and demotion of Byung Ho Park, Vargas has done the most with it. Playing in sixe games since his promotion, Vargas has slashed .471/.609/1.294 with five doubles and three homers. Each of his eight hits thus far have been of the extra base hit variety. Obviously an unsustainable level of production, Vargas is extending his opportunity by producing with it.

When Minnesota returns from the All Star break, the reality of 2016 being a lost season will remain. The other reality is that the youth expected to carry this team is beginning to show up. At some point soon, the pitching staff will welcome Jose Berrios and J.T. Chargois. Taylor Rogers has already showed he belongs, and there's hope that a few other young arms may join them yet this season. Despite the end already being seemingly clear, the path to get there the rest of the way is one that absolutely is worth watching.

If the trend of producing youth can continue for the Twins, a 2017 with a handful of young question marks shouldn't be something Minnesota has to assume they'll be looking at.

What's The Narrative For Twins Relief?

During the 2015 season, few areas were worse off than the Twins bullpen. Minnesota didn't strike anyone out, there were largely without reliable arms, and late game leads were far from safe. Coming into 2016, making an improvement in relief was no doubt a priority, but the execution of that decision seemed to come from different trains of thought.

Now with the 2016 season nearly here, the Twins bullpen has largely been decided. Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor May are all locks. Casey Fien was offered a new deal through arbitration, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Former free agent signee Ricky Nolasco needs a place to pitch, and Minnesota needs another lefty in relief. Outside of the question as to whether it will be Fernando Abad or Taylor Rogers, Paul Molitor's relief corps seems decided upon.

The group assembled in 2016 will be looking to take some significant steps forward. A year ago, Twins relievers struck out an MLB worst 6.85 per nine innings. A 4.20 FIP was among the lower third in the big leagues, and a 1.7 fWAR had the group tied for 7th worst in the majors. Outside of Glen Perkins' first half, and Kevin Jepsen's late season boost, things could have been markedly worse.

So in making the bullpen a priority, Terry Ryan and the Twins needed to fix things. A season ago, they were caught making remarks that the collective media needed to relax, and that things would be just fine. That obviously couldn't have been further from the truth, but those sentiments have not been muttered this time. Instead, the Twins have stood their ground and watched as arms have been signed while they've stood idly by.

In fact, it's their inaction that has brought up the question, just what is the narrative for the Twins relievers in 2016? As Matt Thornton, another lefty, was plucked off the market on an MiLB deal, this comment was offered on Twitter:

If the bullpen is bad this year, Terry Ryan should will deserve all the criticism for hibernating all winter. https://t.co/OT7JIOdYtc

— Mike Bates (@MikeBatesSBN) March 3, 2016

The problem is, I'm not sure that's entirely fair.

Without a doubt the Twins stood pat when it came to the bullpen in a larger sense, but in the grand scheme of things, they really didn't. Knowing the club needed a lefty, Ryan went out and nabbed Abad on a minor league deal. An organizational belief that he was tipping his pitches to the tune of a 4.15 ERA a season ago, Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9. Should he return to any semblance of that, a nominal MiLB deal could end up being the best move of the winter.

Minnesota repeated that same type of acquisition in claiming former Brewers lefty Mike Strong, and targeting Dan Runzler along with Buddy Boshers. The trio no doubt has a significantly lower upside than that of Abad, but Minnesota only needs one of the group to stick.

Then there's the reality that relief arms are actually an area of strength for Ryan at the present time. Mostly on the right side, Minnesota has Alex Meyer, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed all looking like they should be capable of big league innings this year. Add in lefty Taylor Rogers, and there's plenty of home grown options that have ceilings largely greater than what the market presented.

Back to the point above, how can we actually view a Twins collapse? If things don't work out with Abad, Rogers, or one of the other lefty candidates, what gets said? Should it be that Ryan needed to spend $18 million for three years of Tony Sipp? Maybe $12 million for two years of Antonio Bastardo made sense? The reality is however, that relievers are generally a fickle beast, and something that can be made out of nowhere. Sipp is a couple of years removed from a near 5.00 ERA while Bastardo almost posted a 4.00 mark in 2014.

So, is there a right way or a wrong way to be upset should things crash and burn for the Twins? The short answer is that I don't know. However, I've always been a big proponent of bullpens either being creative, or expensive, the middle ground is an ugly desolate wasteland. Right now, the Twins fall in the former category (with a team like the Yankees being the blueprint for the later).

Ryan didn't go spend on a position (albeit of need), that is often easy to develop, and one with internal options. He's banking on internal evaluations saying that Abad will work out, and that the kids who've been knocking on the door are ready to go. Big contracts in the pen would have no doubt delayed a more deserving arm (Ricky Nolasco anyone?), and it's time the Twins system becomes utilized at the big league level.

Nothing says that Minnesota's relief corps will take a massive step forward in the year ahead. Deciding to go with top prospects and good (low risk) bets though, is a strategy I can applaud. We'll soon see how it plays out, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure too stiff of an argument can be made against the process.

Fall Sets Up Big Future For Twins Prospects

Nick Burdi- Knuckleballs Blog

Back in October, I wrote about the Twins and their seven players headed to the Arizona Fall League. The focus was on what each of them needed to improve or work on over the next two months, and how they could end 2015 on a high note. Over the weekend, each of them became Arizona Fall League champs, and it was because of their success that the title was claimed.

As I tweeted out over the weekend, baseball is no doubt a team sport, however it was the Twins group that carried this team during the title game. Taylor Rogers got the start and went 3.0 scoreless, striking out two and picking up the win. Adam Brett Walker drove in three of Scottsdale's six runs, and the game was closed out by both Jake Reed and Nick Burdi. To put it mildly, the Twins stars shined over the weekend.

Looking back at the Fall League as a whole, the majority of the Twins prospects did themselves some considerable favors. Starting with the two guys who have now won back-to-back AFL titles, Rogers and Reed, 2016 is shaping up to be a great year.

Rogers was second in the Twins minors leagues in innings pitched this past year. He's a lefty who has good command and looked impressive for most of the Triple-A season. He established himself as Scottsdale's ace in the AFL and his 2.88 ERA and 21 strikeouts across six starts was a very good way to end the year. He may begin the season with Rochester, but he's a definite bet to contribute for the Twins in the year ahead, likely out of the bullpen.

After an impressive showing a season ago, Reed improved in his second AFL stint. Pitching in 10 games, the former Oregon Duck surrendered zero earned runs. He threw 10.2 IP giving up just six hits while striking out ten and walking just four. If the Twins are going to improve their bullpen in 2016, giving Reed a shot at some point would seem to be a good idea.

Staying with the bullpen, Nick Burdi was equally impressive in the Fall League. He gave up his lone run on a solo homer in the title game, but was lights out otherwise. Burdi was an inclusion in the Fall Stars game, and his command was impeccable owning an 11/1 K/BB ratio across 8.0 IP. Trevor Hildenberger also did some really nice work in relief this fall. His 12.2 IP were second highest for Scottsdale in relief. He owned a 2.13 ERA and struck out 12 while walking none. Although he played at Fort Myers a season ago, the strong showing against superior talent bodes well for his 2016 trajectory.

Then there's the offensive side of things. Starting anywhere but with Adam Brett Walker would be misguided. His Fall was very similar to the rest of his 2015, very mixed. While he was also the hero in the title game, it was his strikeout numbers that continue to cause reason for pause. His final slash line rested at .240/.326/.493 with five homers and 18 RBI. The issue though is that the strikeout week actually got worse. In Double-A this year, Walker averaged 1.65 K per hit, 1.47 per game, and 6.29 per home run. In AFL action, he averaged 1.94 per hit, 1.75 per game, and 7.0 per home run. Those numbers are going to determine whether or not he can contribute at the next level.

It's almost a certainty that Walker starts 2016 at Triple-A, and as a top 10 Twins prospect, Minnesota wants to see him succeed. However, he is not going to be a viable contributor at the big league level based on power alone. He's well behind the likes of Chris Carter, Mark Reynolds, or Adam Dunn in their minor league careers. In the year ahead, it's about making more contact, working on plate discipline, and reducing the ugly strikeout numbers.

Rounding out the offensive grouping for the Twins in the fall are two catchers who had vastly different results. Stuart Turner continued along the path of being a defensive guru who can't hit. He slashed a Scottsdale worst .171/.306/.220 and totaled just two extra base hits in 12 games. The Twins still have significant reason to hold out hope (lack of catching depth being one of them), but Turner needs to hit in the year ahead.

On the other hand, Mitch Garver shunned his regular season numbers by having an impressive fall campaign. The backstop slashed .317/.404/.512 across 12 games and cranked out five doubles and a homer. He handled the bat well in 2014 before taking a step backwards this past year. If the fall production can carry over into 2016, Garver could vault himself up the ladder and into the Twins plans sooner rather than later.

As a whole, the Twins deep farm system was extremely impressive during action down in Arizona. It was pitching that owned the season, but the group set itself apart. Knowing that the big league club is getting ready to turn the corner, a couple of these contributors should be expected to be front and center in the revolution.

Twins Gaining In Arizona Fall League

The Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League kicks off and with it, a handful of Twins prospects continue their development. Now playing in games against some of the most talented prospects in minor league baseball, they will be given another measuring stick opportunity. Competition regarded as higher than most of what is faced in a typical minor league game, the "All Star" rosters of sorts go at it.

For the Twins this season, seven players have been asked to compete for the Scottsdale Scorpions. After being affiliated with the Salt River Rafters a season ago, the Twins filled Scorpions will face off against Salt River in game one. The seven players on the squad include: Adam Brett Walker, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver, Nick Burdi, Taylor Rogers, Jake Reed, and Trevor Hildenberger.

As much about competing and continued development, the Arizona Fall League is about working through some of the issues that may have plagued a player during the season. Each of those seven guys has something to work on. Here's what should be the biggest focus.

Adam Brett Walker

Brett Walker pulverizes baseballs, there's no two ways about it. His 31 homers at Double-A Chattanooga in 2015 were a career high, and he doesn't seem to be losing the power stroke any time soon. The biggest issue however, is that he swings and misses far too often. With 195 strikeouts in just 133 games, Brett Walker had a 238 strikeout pace per 162 games at the Double-A level. that's only going to get worse against better talent. He needs to show more discipline in Arizona, and hopefully carry that approach over into his 2016 season.

Stuart Turner

Turner was drafted to help refuel the Twins catching depth. As a defense first prospect, the hope was that the former Mississippi catcher would eventually hit. With a career worst .223/.322/.306 line for Double-A Chattanooga in 2015, that notion took a significant hit. He picked things up towards the end of the season, but seeing Turner bring the lumber in Arizona would be a very welcomed development by the Twins.

Mitch Garver

Another catcher, Garver was a 9th round pick in 2013 by the Twins. Having played at one level per year, Garver spent 127 games in the Fort Myers lineup this past season. After breaking out to a .298/.399/.481 line with Cedar Rapids in 2014, he slashed just .245/.356/.333 at High-A this season. He followed up his 16 HR performance with just four, and he struck out a career high 82 times (which still isn't a bad number). Like Turner, Garver needs to hit to move up the ranks. The Twins have catching deficiencies and it isn't going to be filled with a Drew Butera type.

Nick Burdi 

Burdi was a reliever that looked the part of a fast mover, and was someone I expected to be with the Twins in 2015. He stumbled out of the gate, and a few times throughout the year. He was demoted back to Fort Myers at one point, and his final ERA for Double-A Chattanooga was 4.53. Looking at his WHIP (1.649), the biggest problem is more than apparent. Burdi throws gas, but his command was non-existent in 2015. Owning a 6.6 BB/9 mark, pounding the zone will be a major focus in the Arizona Fall League.

Taylor Rogers

Continuing the Twins Kentucky pipeline is their 11th round pick in 2012. Rogers had a relatively strong 2015 season. He finished with a 3.98 ERA that was inflated with a few poor starts to end the year, but his peripherals were generally strong. Not a big strikeout guy (6.5 K/9), he also doesn't walk many (2.3 BB/9). Rogers is repeating the Fall League after making two starts a year ago. He's a good bet to push for time on the Twins roster in 2016, and I think his eventual resting place will be as a long man out of the pen.

Jake Reed

It's hard to mention Burdi without having reed to far behind. Taken in the same draft (Reed in the 5th round), the former Oregon Duck is very similar to the Louisville standout. While he doesn't throw as often in the triple digits, Reed has a power arm of his own. Another guy that was expected to surface for the Twins in 2015, Reed had a very up and down season. He too was demoted to Fort Myers, and after dominating the level again, finished with a 6.32 ERA at Chattanooga. Reed saw his strikeout rate drop (7.0 K/9 in 2015 as opposed to 11.3 in 2014), and his walk rate balloon (3.3 BB/9 in 2015, 0.9 in 2014). Like Rogers, Reed is repeating the Fall League this season. In 2014, Reed owned a 0.71 ERA in 12.2 IP for the Salt River Rafters. Another strong performance, with improved command, should have his arrow pointing right back up.

Trevor Hildenberger

Unlike some of his teammates, Hildenberger enters the Arizona Fall League for some different reasons. He was actually promoted in 2015 (from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers), and compiled a 1.55 ERA, 11.2 K/9, and a 1.0 BB/9. At Fort Myers, his ERA rose to 3.32 but he still struck out batters at a 9.9 K/9 clip while walking less than 1.0 per nine. The Fall League is an opportunity for Hildenberger to launch himself on a quicker path to the big leagues. He's 24, and will need to show he can compete against better talent. If he proves himself, a shortened stop at Double-A Chattanooga may be in the cards.

Make sure to tune into the Major League Baseball Arizona Fall League over the course of the next month. For these seven Twins prospects, the action could position them nicely for a different 2016 season.