Twins In For An Overhaul

With just a couple of weeks left until Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins will be whittling down their players in camp and aligning the 40 man. What that means for a team with no spots left on the 40 man roster, is a handful of hard decisions lie ahead. The interesting bit for the new regime, is that it appears there are more moves than initially were to be expected.

Although the active 25 man roster can remain in flux through the first few weeks, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are going to need to make decisions on who they want to hang onto. With so many new faces coming into the picture, there's going to be some holdovers that find themselves out of luck. Shuffling the 40 man and sending guys to the minors, or looking for a different organization, is never an easy or fun task. From where I'm standing though, it seems there's plenty of work ahead.

First, let's take a look at the guys likely needing a spot:

Craig Breslow- RP

When the Twins signed Breslow this offseason, much was made about how he had reinvented his arm angle and pitching philosophy. Taking an analytical approach, Breslow broke down his mechanics and remade himself to suit his current ability. He's looked plenty capable this spring, and gives Minnesota a solid lefty presence in relief.
Chance he makes the club: 85%

Ryan Vogelsong- SP

Vogelsong hasn't been great this spring, and he's been largely mediocre since 2012. However, with Trevor May going down, I could definitely see the Twins going the easy or safe route with the 5th starter. Both Adalebrto Mejia and Jose Berrios still have options, and given the usage needed from a 5th starter, Vogelsong wouldn't have to take the ball incredibly often. Should Minnesota go this route, I'd look at it as settling, and really, an unnecessary 40 man move. However, reports are beginning to suggest it looks likely, and he'll need to be accommodated.
Chance he make the club: 80%

Chris Gimenez- C

Despite how good Mitch Gavrer has shown this spring, the reality is that there's a big jump from Double to Triple-A, and even further to the big leagues. Gimenez seems locked in now as the backup catcher, and his familiarity with both Falvey and Levine from previous organizations helps. He's a solid veteran presence, and has been on some really good ballclubs. He doesn't do anything incredibly well, but he's a serviceable backup to Jason Castro and allows the Twins time to wait on Garver to develop.
Chance he makes the club: 95%

ByungHo Park- DH

Before spring training started, Park was jettisoned from the 40 man. He went unclaimed on waivers and was brought into camp still competing for a DH job with Kennys Vargas. I have wondered if Vargas wasn't given this move as a vote of confidence that he was the lone 40 man DH, but he's done little with it. Park has looked solid at the plate this swing, both with the approach (6/4 K/BB) and the results. On top of that, he's the better fielding first basemen, and really gives the Twins a higher ceiling bat. I don't see Vargas as much more than a bench bat long term and think Park has earned his way back in.
Chance he makes the club: 60%

Drew Stubbs- OF

Stubbs inclusion is an interesting one, because it largely depends on how the Twins view Robbie Grossman. They are both solid OBP guys, but it's Stubbs who swings and misses (and has been ineffective in general) much more often. The one dynamic playing to Stubbs' strength is his ability to play all three outfield spots. Grossman is a corner guy only, and average at best. If the Twins want to have a more dynamic fourth outfielder, they could decide to go this way. However, teams shouldn't be beating down Stubbs' door, so Minnesota could likely hold him at Triple-A as well.
Chance he makes the club: 10%

With this construction, we have at least four guys needing 40 man spots, with a potential fifth. Right now the Twins find their 40 man at capacity, so what gives?

Trevor May- P

This is the easiest move for the Twins to make to clear a 40 man spot. May is done for the year after suffering a torn UCL. He'll likely need Tommy John surgery, and it's a certainty he's placed on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 100%

Buddy Boshers- RP

Including Boshers here isn't a slight to him, but more of a roster crunch. Assuming Breslow makes the club, the Twins are going to carry a max of one more lefty reliever. That leaves the group of Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Boshers vying for that spot. The first won't be removed from the 40 man, and both Boshers and O'Rourke could find themselves out in the cold.
Removed from 40 man: 50%

Ryan O'Rourke- RP

First, see above. Then realize O'Rourke is a dominant LOOGY but is rarely used solely in that instance, and is 28. He's been passed through waivers before, and likely would go unclaimed again. Regardless, I think it's a coin flip as to what happens between him and Boshers, with the slight edge going to Buddy.
Removed from 40 man: 51%

Glen Perkins- RP

At this point, Perkins presents an interesting case. He's on the path to recovery, but his exact timetable for return remain a mystery. He needed his labrum literally reattached to the bone, and I doubt his overall effectiveness going forward. For the time being though, Minnesota could open up a 40 man spot by stashing him on the 60 day DL.
Removed from 40 man: 25%

Michael Tonkin- RP

Out of options, and probably on the outside of the pen looking in, Tonkin could find himself looking for a new team. He was improperly used in 2015, and then did little with his opportunities a year ago. With Rule 5 pick Justin Haley in the fold, as well as newly signed Matt Belisle, there's maybe not enough room in the Twins relief corps to accommodate Tonkin. He could clear waivers, but I don't think the Twins view him as must keep material.
Removed from 40 man: 60%

Danny Santana- Util

This spring, Santana has been used all over the place, and he's played quite a bit. I'm starting to try and convince myself he's being used as the guy who gets breaks in for teammates. At this point, he's a utility man that can't play any position above average defensively, and his bat has never been anything close to the inflated BABIP number his rookie year lulled many into thinking. With Ehire Adrianza the superior fielder, and Eduardo Escobar a better all around player, Santana ends up being a roster casualty out of options.
Removed from 40 man: 90%

Robbie Grossman- OF

Of those included, Grossman is probably the least likely to be going anywhere. He's completely tied to Drew Stubbs and how that situation plays out. I'd view them as an interchangeable duo, and only one stays. If Minnesota keeps Grossman, they'll try to hold onto Stubbs on the farm. If it's Stubbs, Grossman will likely look to latch on elsewhere.
Removed from 40 man:10%

With that breakdown, we have seven candidates that could create room for four or five 40 man additions. The Twins are still a ways away from needing to have answers, but the guys on the bottom list are absolutely going to be considered to make way for those above them.

Ryan's Minor League Finds Highlight Biggest Asset

It's funny sometimes how others share a similar thought process to your own. That happened for me today as I prepared my coverage of the Twins for the week here at Off The Baggy. One topic I wanted to highlight and touch on was the ability Terry Ryan has shown to nab some very solid minor league signings heading into the season. MLB Trade Rumors released a piece with the best of the 2016 year, and of course, Minnesota had three entrants.

It's pretty easy to pick out that the Twins have gotten considerable run from Fernando Abad, Brandon Kintzler, and Robbie Grossman in 2016. Both Abad and Kintzler were non-roster guys that received spring training invites and minor league deals with the Twins. It was expected from the get go that Abad would make the team as the club's lefty reliever, and Minnesota thought his down 2015 was simply due to tipping his pitches.

After posting a 4.15 ERA with the Athletics a season ago, Abad has been incredible for the Twins. No longer tipping his pitches, he's made it through the first half with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.63 FIP. His 8.2 FIP is along the lines of his last three seasons, and he's danced around the a career worst 4.1 BB/9. Despite a recent rough stretch, Abad has been able to get both righties (.725 OPS) and lefties (.451 OPS) out. Obviously looking at those numbers, he's absolutely dominated left-handed batters, to the tune of a .163/.196/.256 slash line.

Despite being a long shot to make the 25 man roster, Kintzler obviously saw a pretty solid chance to make the Twins at some point after the club had such a poor pen a season ago. He owned a 3.52 ERA in 10 games with Triple-A Rochester prior to his promotion to the big league club. Since, he's owned a 2.42 ERA and walked next to no one (0.7 BB/9). His FIP leaves plenty to be desired, but he;s now working as the Twins (miscast) closer, having picked up his first five major league saves.

Rounding out the trio of guys touched on by MLB Trade Rumors was Robbie Grossman. Cast off by the Cleveland Indians, Ryan and the Twins saw an opportunity to solidify their revolving outfield. Grossman, just 26, had shown promise with the Astros but had never lived up to his billing. With the Twins, he's been an on base machine, and has slashed .289/.421/.465 through 48 games. He's already matched his career high in homer (6), and is just four doubles shy of tying his career high (14).

It's pretty safe to say that each of the three aforementioned guys have been among the Twins best players in 2016. This isn't something new though for a Terry Ryan club, and it's really not even isolated to this trio for the current year.

Buddy Boshers was another non roster guy that the Twins brought in out of Indy Ball for the 2016 season. He was a part of the roster squeeze a few days back, but he posted a 1.38 ERA across 13.0 IP and amassed a 9.7 K/9 with a 1.4 BB/9 in his first major league action since 2013.

A season ago, Minnesota could've used Mark Hamburger in their pen. He was lights out at Triple-A Rochester, posting a 3.44 ERA in 68.0 IP with an 8.3 K/9. Now pitching in Indy Ball with the St. Paul Saints and working as a starter, he's compiled a 2.59 ERA across 11 outings. In an uncertain outfield, Minnesota brought in Shane Robinson who turned out 3 defensive runs saved in just over 450 innings. Before that, it was signings like Blaine Boyer (2.49 ERA across 65.0 IP in 2015 for Twins), that showed Ryan's acumen.

At it's core, the highlighting of small splashes like those noted above are what Terry Ryan has done best. It follows the narrative of the Twins being a small market team, but is really indicative of a different story altogether. It's not that the Twins don't have the money to spend, but instead that when they do, Ryan generally misses the mark.

It's in deals like those handed out to Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes that Ryan looks to make the big wave and comes up short. Rather, when he uses his adept scouting knowledge and looks to squeeze what's left out of something lesser, the Twins GM generally finds his mark. Seeing the Twins turn out decent non-roster deals or small market contracts is far from a surprise, and once again should benefit them in 2016.

As the trade deadline approaches, Abad should be an easy piece to move. Kintzler is a usable option for a competing team, and Grossman's approach should be able to help another club unless the Twins see him as a fourth outfielder in the year ahead. What hitting on situations like these does is allow for a bad team, like the Twins have been, to try and stockpile assets moving forward. You won't get the cream of the crop, but your return on investment should be through the roof.

When push comes to shove at the end of the season, Minnesota would be best served to fire Terry Ryan. Don't let him walk away on his own terms, don't let him step down. Send the message that he has failed as General Manager, there's no soft way to put that. If the club has a problem cutting ties or wants to utilize his true talent though, Ryan serving in a scouting capacity of some sort would be far from a bad option. If there's something Ryan had proven over his tenure with the Twins, it's that he knows what he's looking for when scouting that diamond in the rough. He's just been miscast in executing it.

Whose Arm Rises Top The Top?

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason prior to the 2016 Major League Baseball season with a significant glaring weakness. While the team overachieved a season ago, it was the bullpen that needed the most attention in the months ahead. Although there hasn't been a ton of movement, Terry Ryan seems to have a plan in place.

As things stand currently, it appears the Twins are set to head into the spring with low risk signings in hopes of one or two working out. Despite that being somewhat of a risky proposition, it also signifies that both Ryan and Paul Molitor may be willing to turn to internal options such as Nick Burdi or Jake Reed in short fashion.

Regardless of who ends up becoming a mainstay in the Twins bullpen not only in 2016, but going forward, Minnesota has made some moves to bolster the competition. The question is, who works out like Blaine Boyer of 2015, and which guys are more of the Tim Stauffer mold?

Let's take a look at the three Minor League deals the Twins issued with invites to Spring Training:

Brandon Kintzler- RHP

Unlike the next two names, Kintzler is in an uphill battle from the get go. Regardless of whether Kintzler is the best pitcher Minnesota signed to a MiLB deal this offseason, he's not left-handed. Minnesota has a handful of righties ready for pen action, and that's also where the internal strength lies.

Kintzler, who's 30, pitched just 7.0 big league innings in 2015. He compiled an ugly 6.43 ERA and his 5.13 FIP was the worst mark since his debut season. Owning just a 6.7 K/9 career mark, Kinztler doesn't blow the ball past many hitters, and relies on his defense while walking just 2.5 per nine. Across 2013-14, Kinztler totaled a 2.93 ERA for the Brewers in 135.1 relief innings. His 3.46 FIP was respectable, and at worst, he should be a solid depth addition for the Twins at Triple-A Rochester.

Chance to make the Opening Day roster: 15%

Buddy Boshers- LHP

The 27 year-old lefty brings a smile with his unique name, but make no mistake, the Twins brought him in to compete. Boshers hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2013, his debut season, with the Los Angeles Angels. In 15.1 IP, he owned a 4.70 ERA. It's out of the Independent League that Boshers finds himself leaving now however.

After owning a 3.28 ERA in Triple-A for the Angels organization as a 26 year-old, Boshers left affiliated baseball. Playing in Indy ball in 2015, he was dominant. For Atlantic League, Somerset, Boshers compiled a 1.00 ERA in 54.0 IP. He fanned batters at an impressive 11.8 K/9 pace and walked just 2.3 per nine. Owning a 0.981 WHIP, Boshers was lights out and limited damage in nearly every possible fashion. Although a big step away from Indy ball, Boshers has strikeout stuff and could be an intriguing spring training name to watch.

Chance to make the Opening Day roster: 25%

Fernando Abad- LHP

Abad comes to the Twins as a 30 year-old having spent the previous two season pitching at the big league level for the Oakland Athletics. After a 1.57 ERA in 2014 across 57.1 IP, Abad regressed a season ago. His 4.15 ERA was inflated in part due to a 5.50 FIP, and his 3.6 BB/9 did him no favors as well.

Despite regressing virtually across the board in 2015, Abad struck out a career high 8.5 per nine. He gave up significantly too many homers, 2.1 per nine (his worst make since 2011), and was just shy of 9 hits per nine (8.5). Abad however is just a season removed from a sub-2.00 ERA and has had success in the American League. If he can use Target Field's pitcher friendliness to his advantage, he should be expected to contribute in a big way during 2016.

Chance to make the Opening Day roster: 75%