Minnesota Mailbox: Twins Three Bagger

With the Minnesota Twins continuing to play good baseball into the month of May, the 2017 Major League Baseball season has gotten off to an exciting start. The club looks like some young stars are beginning to blossom, and Ervin Santana has been nothing short of incredible. With the bulk of the season left ahead of us, I asked for some Twins questions recently on Twitter (follow here).

Getting away from the typical analysis a bit, here's a three bagger of Minnesota Twins questions that readers had.

@tlschwerz How long until Palka is called up and we can get #PalkaForThePennant trending?

— Nathan (@Plouffe3_24Fan) May 2, 2017

This is an interesting one, and a case where sample sizes come into play. Palka was on a tear through his first 16 games, slashing .311/.373/.590 with five homers. Since, he's got just a .302 OPS over the course of his past seven games, and his line now rests at .253/.309/.460. He's probably never going to hit much more than .260, but if he can boost the walks some, he'll even out the strikeouts he's going to rack up. Palka has legitimate power, and is probably a more refined version of Adam Brett Walker.

He'll get a shot with the Twins sometime in 2017, but it's farther down the road than what may have been initially imagined.

@tlschwerz Can Sano keep this pace through most of this season?? Is this now Sano's team versus Mauers?

— Tom Minor (@TomHMinor) May 2, 2017

Right now, Miguel Sano is on pace to club right around 50 homers. I wouldn't think that's out of the question at some point in his career, but I don't foresee it happening in 2017. I tabbed him for right around 35 homers and continue to think that's realistic.

He's not the .300 hitter he's started out as, but it sure appears he's got a stronger grasp on the strike zone. While the strikeouts are still there, he's drawing walks in bunches, and more importantly, he's working counts to his favor. Sano is blossoming, and it's going to be fun to watch.

As far as who commands the clubhouse, I think Dozier has long since taken the torch from Mauer. Sano is relating well to his teammates however, and will continue to develop as a leader.

@tlschwerz What will be the twins rotation one month from now?

— JT Miller (@Miller_JT) May 2, 2017

I really like this question, but am not certain it provides a real exciting answer. There's no doubt Ervin Santana will still be around, and Hector Santiago stands to be as well. By June, I'd be shocked if Jose Berrios isn't in the fold, and that leaves Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes to round things out.

There should be real concern in regards to Hughes and his health. The velocity has been up and down, and while the Twins have won for him, he's been far from great. I'd like to see him trend upwards a bit more, but that's somewhat of a wait and see. Gibson just can't seem to right the ship, but I'm not sure what you do with him. I don't believe his stuff plays up in the pen, so I guess he could go back to Triple-A, but what a disaster that would be.

Should the Twins need another arm outside of Berrios, they could go back to Adalberto Mejia, turn to Nick Tepesch, or even (and I hope not) bring Tyler Duffey back into the rotation.

Spring Training Highlights Process For Twins

Many have argued over the years that the amount of games played in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues could be drastically reduced. While teams need to gear up for their upcoming schedules, a month long exhibition fest may be too long. What's always worth remembering though, is that the process is more telling than the results.

It's pretty easy to understand that the record the Minnesota Twins, or any other team for that matter, put forth over the next month doesn't hold much weight. What's harder to wrap your head around is the production doesn't carry much weight either. Whether home runs are being sent over the wall on a consistent basis, or strikeouts are being piled up, the results are always going to be looked at through the microscope of the process.

Early on in spring training, we've been reminded of this thanks to Byungho Park. The Korean slugger has two homers to his credit already, and has been the Twins star through the first handful of games. He's also not on the 40 man roster, and is being forced to prove why he's more deserving of an Opening Day roster spot than Kennys Vargas. Whether or not he continues to provide #ParkBang highlights or not, the questions will be in regards to his strikeout rate, and how well Vargas is playing.

The reality is that spring production can far too often be an outlier. While I have continued to conduct the Park hype train, suggesting his 2016 was a mirage due in large part to injury, his uphill climb is a massive one. Trying to figure out how the narrative plays out when the dust settles simply from a production standpoint is a fool's errand. Should we get to the end of March with Park continuing to put together complete at bats, and Vargas finds himself struggling, we may have more to look at.

Also worth noting is that spring training isn't simply process oriented for just the players, but the manager as well. It is here that Paul Molitor needs to begin to put his best foot forward in a season in which he could be managing for his career. Far too often a year ago, his lineups lacked any evidence based backing, and he often times appeared in over his head during in-game situations.

Through just the first few games, Molitor has played Leonardo Reginatto in LF, despite being a career infielder (an outfield blunder ensued). He has used Daniel Palka in LF with Robbie Grossman in RF despite the natural spots for both being the opposite. He's even used top prospect Nick Gordon as a 2B, despite him playing just two professional games there, and Gordon ended up looking out of position communicating on a short blooper to right.

While it's fair to understand that spring training is about getting players repetitions in games, it's also integral that they happen in logical scenarios. Playing guys out of position simply to get them in, or worse, because you don't know any better, does no one any good. If there's something that Molitor needs to take drastic strides forward from 2016 in, it's understanding the strengths of his team, and relating better to the youth that should be the lifeblood of this organization.

Spring training is still in its infancy at this point, and with multiple weeks of action left, the club is going to move towards a more well oiled machine. Players, such as Byungho Park, will need to make their process match up consistently with the results. The manager will have to do the same.

Twins Avoiding Rule 5 Losses

The Minnesota Twins have kicked off their 2016 offseason by introducing new Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, and General Manager Thad Levine. Outside of the front office and coaching staff changes, the club hasn't done much with the roster thus far. Before the snow flies, that makes sense, but come Friday they'll need to make decisions on their 40 man roster inclusions.

With the deadline to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft quickly approaching, the Twins will have to do some shuffling. As things stand at this moment, Minnesota has 36 spots claimed on their 40 man roster. They could clear up two more by removing Buddy Boshers and Juan Centeno. Another could be had if Trevor Plouffe is non-tendered. A final possibility, although not likely, would be moving on from Danny Santana even before he's out of options to start 2017. For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Twins have six open 40 man spots by Friday.

There's well over 20 possible additions. Remember, anyone selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the duration of the upcoming season on the drafting team's major league roster, or risk being offered back to their initial organization (a la Zack Jones for the Twins this past season).

Now, let's get into the six I'm keeping:

Fernando Romero- SP

Romero is a no-brainer. He was ranked the second best Twins prospect by Twins Daily's Seth Stohs, was Baseball America's 4th, and my 5th. After finally getting back to good health, he was great for both Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers this season. Romero has a chance to rise quickly, and could see time with the Twins in late 2017 if everything continues to go smoothly.

Mitch Garver- C

This one is another no-brainer. Garver earned his way on to the Twins by having a great minor leaguer season in 2016. He was probably worthy of the September call over John Ryan Murphy, and he could challenge for a 25 man spot to start the season this year. He's got better than average defensive skills, while being capable with the bat. Garver is a former 9th round pick that should make an impact in Minnesota.

Daniel Palka- OF

Another player worthy of a September call up a season ago, Palka's downfall was not already being on the 40 man. Adam Brett Walker's skillset is very similar, but Palka's plate approach is just a bit better. The return from Arizona for Chris Herrmann, Palka's power is real, and as a bench bat or extra outfielder, the Twins could find themselves calling his name sooner rather than later.

Felix Jorge- SP

I think the reason Minnesota protects Jorge is that they are pitching starved and he can provide a solution. I'm a believer that while Jorge isn't an exciting top-of-the-rotation option, he's very capable at filling one out. He's a strike thrower, and has handled his moves up the organizational ladder well. Sure, he hasn't pitched above Double-A, but given his ceiling, I think you'd find plenty of organizations ready to give him a big league shot.

Zack Granite- OF

When Minnesota finds themselves looking for that 25th man in 2017, it could very well come down to guys like Granite. Not only was he the organizations Minor League Hitter of the Year, but he also stole 50+ bases and played exceptional defense. His speed is real, and his threat on the basepaths is something the Twins should welcome. Rather than a veteran retread such as Shane Robinson or Robbie Grossman, it's a guy like Zack Granite that should be giving starters days off at Target Field.

Zack Jones- RP

Left unprotected a year ago, Jones was taken by the Milwaukee Brewers. He couldn't get healthy and rejoined the Twins organization. With a new regime in place, something that should absolutely work in his favor, Zack's velocity alone should have him in the big leagues. He's a hard thrower and can generate strikeouts out of the pen. Control has always been an issue, but it's hard not to get behind what the ceiling looks like. If Jones is added, I'd be far from surprised to see him beat either Jake Reed or Nick Burdi to the big leagues.

Update: Zack Jones had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He'll almost certainly be left off the 40 man and won't be selected in the Rule 5 Draft as he won't be able to return to action until July at the earliest.

Engelb Vielma- SS

Vielma gets the nod here over Stuart Turner simply because I don't know what the Twins plan to do at shortstop. Jorge Polanco needs to play at the big league level, but he's a second basemen. If Brian Dozier stays with the organization, he'll be miscast at short, and Polanco's defense is a problem. Velma has never been known for his bat, and at Double-A last season, he owned just a .663 OPS. His calling card is his glove though, and it's incredibly good. If he can play on a rotational basis for the Twins and provide speed on the basepaths, he's got a chance to have major league value.

Outside of these six, there's plenty more deserving candidates, and it will in part be decided by what openings the Twins have. I think Jason Wheeler and D.J. Baxendale both could have contributed to the Twins a year ago, and it would have given the organization to see what they have. Engelb Vielma could be lost as a shortstop due to his glove, and Stuart Turner could be plucked because of his ability behind the plate.

Beyond that, you're looking at players that would take a significant gamble, or that most other organizations have duplicates of. Lewis Thorpe and Amuarys Minier may have some real gusto behind their talent, but injury and development says neither are ready immediately. Guys like Aaron Slegers, Niko Goodrum, Travis Harrison and others are probably well represented by counterparts throughout the big leagues.

The Rule 5 Draft is a few weeks away, and every year, you're not going to see someone like Odubel Herrera emerge. However, an organization's goal is to keep those they see as part of the future, and try to gamble on those they think can squeak through. Come week's end, we'll have a better idea of where the Minnesota Twins stand.

Is Grossman A Twin For The Future?

On May 20th, Robbie Grossman made his debut with the Minnesota Twins. After starting the year in the Cleveland Indians organization, Grossman saw opportunity through the Twins farm system and jumped ship. Playing just one game with the Rochester Red Wings, Grossman was headed to the big leagues. The question now is should he stay there, at least for the Twins.

In the 2008 Major League Baseball draft, Robbie Grossman was a 6th round pick out of high school by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was rated the 76th best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2012 season, and he made his big league debut in 2013 with the Houston Astros. Through his first three big league seasons Grossman owned a .240/.327/.341 slash line. He never flashed any real power, but was a solid on base contributor.

For the Twins, Grossman has experienced nothing short of a revolution. In 64 games with Minnesota, Grossman owns a .266/.392/.436 slash line. He's hit a career best seven home runs, and his 14 doubles tie him for a career mark with 49 games left to go. His defense has been anything but average. With a -12 DRS number and a -7.2 UZR, Fangraphs sees him as essentially Josh Willingham out in left field for Minnesota.

Right now, Grossman's contribution to the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins is largely irrelevant. Really though, that's only because it's a microcosm of what the 2016 Twins have become. This is a lost season for Paul Molitor's squad, and no results are going to matter much in the grand scheme of things. What Grossman is doing, and is fighting for, is a place on this team and in the organization going forward.

So, what exactly does that look like? Well, Grossman's bat has played to a capable, if not above average level. His power is not along the lines of a corner outfielder, but his advanced on base rate is something any time would enjoy putting ahead of power hitters in their lineup. In the outfield though, he's essentially been the 2012 version of Josh Willingham, and could finish the year with worse numbers than the 2008 version of Delmon Young. Weighing out both the detractors as well as contributions, the next place to look is at the competition.

At Triple-A, there's only two realistic big league prospects; Adam Brett Walker and Daniel Palka. A level further down, Zach Granite and Travis Harrison could be in play, but won't be ready come Opening Day 2017. So, let's take a look at the two current Triple-A options.

Both Palka and Walker present similar skillsets. They are hitters first, with a ton of power, and a relatively high strikeout rate. Walker has the weaker arm of the two, but is also the one on the 40 man roster. Palka was acquired prior to 2016 in exchange for former Twins backstop Chris Herrmann. Between Double and Triple-A in 2016, Palka is slashing .264/.343/.533 with 27 homers, 141 strikeouts, and 51 walks. Adam Brett Walker has played the entire season at Triple-A and owns a .243/.310/.481 line with 22 homers, 164 strikeouts, and 37 walks. Being on the 40 man, it's a pretty good bet he may see time with the Twins in September.

So, where does that leave us to open the 2017 season, and what is Robbie Grossman up against? Let's assume that the starting outfield includes Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario from right to left. Buxton is probably the biggest question mark of the group, but you can bet a new GM will be wanting to make sure he rights the former consensus top overall prospect's ship. With Danny Santana continuing to be loved by the organization, and out of options, he seems a good bet to return as a utility player that draws a good deal of time as a rotating outfielder. In this scenario, you've probably got room for one more true outfielder on the 25 man roster.

If it comes down to whether or not the Twins keep Robbie Grossman, or roll with one of either Daniel Palka or Adam Brett Walker, a smart choice could be in choosing one of the latter two. Walker doesn't have nearly the on base prowess, and while Palka doesn't either, he's not as far removed. Both of the Twins home grown options have a significantly more realistic power component to their game though, and should play defense at least at a comparable level.

My opinion relies largely upon two factors: What happens to Byron Buxton, and what can you get for Robbie Grossman? If Buxton isn't on the 2017 Twins Opening Day roster (things are bad already), that means Eddie Rosario is your starting centerfielder, leaving left field up for grabs. In that scenario, carrying both Robbie Grossman and one of the two Triple-A guys could make a lot of sense.

To answer the second question, the Twins will have to do their homework. Experiencing a solid season at the age of 26, and turning 27 prior to the 2017 season, Grossman still arguably has his prime ahead of him. Not arbitration eligible until 2018, and not a free agent until 2021, he could be a nice piece for a club closer to contending. If the return is worthy of flipping him and going with the other internal options, I'd put some serious thought into it.

For now, Robbie Grossman has played himself into a realistic big league roster spot for the forseeable future. Whether or not that continues to be with the Twins or not is the only thing yet to be determined. The pieces are still moving, but they should work themselves out.

Palka Powering The Farm

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins didn't make a ton of moves. They had a bad bullpen that they looked at more fliers than sure things. Minnesota won a surprising bid for KBO slugger Byung Ho Park. Then there was a move that was somewhat surprising in that it was able to happen at all; the Twins dealt Chris Herrmann to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a prospect named Daniel Palka.

In coming to the Twins, Palka was a heralded power prospect who'd yet to play above High-A in the Arizona organization. He was dealt to Minnesota during the Arizona Fall League, and he ended up finishing that schedule with the Salt River Rafters (who were affiliated with Twins prospects just a year earlier).

During the fall season, Palka had a nice showing. Despite not jumping off the stat sheet, he put up a .278/.330/.444 slash line with three homers. He's always been a high strikeout guy, but his power has made that more of a footnote. It wasn't until he joined the Twins organization to start the season that things really took off for the Georgia Tech alum.

After a season in which the Chattanooga Lookouts were blessed with top Twins prospects like Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano, the team has been gifted Palka in 2016. Through his first 59 games at the Double-A level this season, he owns a .277/.355/.563 slash line. His 16 homers lead the Southern League, and his .918 OPS is the best mark of his four year professional career. He's still striking out at a healthy clip (76/28 K/BB), but Palka has become something Twins fans have hoped another prospect may be.

To find a safe comparison for Palka, you have to look back only one year at the 20155 Lookouts roster. On it, you'll find Adam Brett Walker, a player cut of virtually the same cloth. It was Walker who used the home run to power his game a season ago, and has long been clamored for among prospects lists throughout Twins Territory. The unfortunate thing for Walker is that his numbers don't look remotely sustainable, and if anything Palka is providing the blueprint for what he should be.

At Double-A last season, Adam Brett Walker had a 0.06 HR/AB with a 0.39 K/AB. Palka owns a 0.07 HR/AB and a 0.34 K/AB rate this season for the Twins double a club. The difference in minimal, but when considering the approach, it's drastic enough to make a difference. In heading to Triple-A this season, things have only gotten worse for Walker. In Rochester, Walker owns a 0.07 HR/AB but a 0.5 K/AB. In striking out in 50% of his plate appearances, he's on pace to blow by his previous career worst 195 K set a season ago.

Sure, there's plenty to suggest Palka will see a similar uptick in strikeouts when heading to the next level. Much like Walker, his approach is always going to lend itself to swinging and missing. Palka actually struck out more often than Walker at the High-A level, but is on pace to come in right around 20 strikeouts lower at the Double-A level.

During June, Palka has ripped the cover off of the baseball. He owns a .341/.415/1.068 slash line with two triples, nine homers, and 19 RBI. His strikeouts have been present to the tune of a 17/7 K/BB ratio, but it's hard to find fault with his current results. Looking further back though, his past 162 games have been nothing to scoff at either. The last 162 comes out to total a gaudy .281/.356/.561 line with 35 doubles, six triples, 43 home runs, and 125 runs batted in. Pretty safe to say those numbers would equate to a top tier prospect at nearly any level.

Considering where he's at, Palka is going to have to continue to substantiate his production. The Twins may keep him at Double-A all season, but regardless, his Triple-A production will have to follow suit. He'll need to avoid a serious uptick in strikeouts, unlike Walker has done, and continue the power production. For now though, there's no doubt Palka needs to be taken seriously.

Among Twins outlets, I've probably been the most skeptical on Walker. He may get a cup of coffee this season due to being on the 40 man roster. However, I'd suggest anyone ranking Walker ahead of Palka in their prospect lists to strongly reconsider. Although very similar styles, Palka is currently doing it better, and it's time he gets his due for doing so.