Clearing Room Helps Twins

The Minnesota Twins moved Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly over the weekend. One transaction involved a free agent to be, and the other focused around a return that likely was too good to pass up. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, clearing some extra space should be the goal for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine.

As things stand currently Minnesota has a handful of guys capable of being flipped to another team. The names include Brian Dozier, Zach Duke, Fernado Rodney, and Lance Lynn. If they really wanted to, and were presented with a solid return, Kyle Gibson could also enter this list. It's hard to see Minnesota being able to move Ervin Santana after just one or two healthy starts, but he could be an August trade candidate through the waiver process.

Looking at the list of candidates having a potential to be moved, there's something that should jump out as an opportunity. All of them are impending free agents, and there's a relatively small likelihood that any of them return to the Twins in 2019. With that in mind, it's time to start planning for the year ahead. Giving those innings to players that will be around is a must, and it's something that Paul Molitor only has two months left to capitalize on.

While it's uncertain as to whether or not Nick Gordon can start at the big league level a year from now, or if Stephen Gonsalves can continue to limit free passes, it's become time to find out some of those answers. Guys like Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss, and Jake Reed deserve some real run in the Twins pen, while Zack Littell and Adalberto Mejia could benefit from a couple of starts being strung together in succession.

When the Twins constructed the 2018 roster each of the pieces now available on the block made sense to bring in. This club was expected to be competitive, and without a lack of production across the board (combined with untimely injuries and bad luck), that was a reasonable expectation. Now with the narrative of the season having changed, the goal should be getting a jumpstart on the 2019 season.

It's hard to decipher whether or not Minnesota will be able to move all of their expiring pieces. Duke and Rodney have performed well this season, and should have appeal to some contenders. Dozier hasn't looked like himself, but a late season spark is all he'd need to supply in order to provide value to a postseason run. Lynn has been the worst of the bunch, but he's trended better of late and has a strong track record of success in his corner. What may be most interesting is what Minnesota decides to do if they can't move some of the pieces.

Looking at the roster construction as it currently stands, there's plenty of reason to question where the front office is prioritizing playing time. A guy like Matt Belisle has been both bad and ineffective for multiple organizations this season. Unfortunately, he's been given ample opportunity with Minnesota and that's to the detriment of the multiple more viable pen arms for the year ahead. A decision like that would suggest there isn't much care when it comes to preparing for what's next. Lynn could be DFA'd and the leftovers could see themselves passed through the waiver process, but we don't really have much evidence to suggest that's what lies ahead.

By my estimation, the most unfortunate way for the final two months of the season to play out would be to see all of these players stick around and no one get any real opportunity from the farm. You can't just cut bait on big league guys that are producing, but clearing the way for those you'll need to rely upon next season has to be of the utmost importance. We should have more clarity in the coming days, but the hope should be that the front office is on board with the train of thought as well.

Rodney Defying Odds for Twins

A season ago, the Minnesota Twins welcomed Bartolo Colon to the 25 man roster. Big Sexy was 44 years old, and he was determined to pitch at least until he was 45. Paul Molitor got good results from the journeyman a year ago, and the front office went back to the fountain of youth this winter. Fernando Rodney was signed as the club's closer, and at the age of 41 he's been nothing short of a revelation.

Long gone are the days that the Twins could immediately pencil in a holdover in the 9th inning. Glen Perkins was an All Star closer that was a well known commodity. Taking the torch from Joe Nathan, the Twins had gone from one 9th inning stalwart to another. As age and ineffectiveness caught up with Perkins however, the cupboard seemed to be bare. Without a "proven closer" waiting in the wings, Minnesota needed to get creative.

After Perkins began to find himself on the disabled list, the Twins turned to former scrap heap pickup Brandon Kintzler. It took just a year, and the 32 year old found himself in the All Star Game for the first time in his career. Recording 28 saves along with a 2.78 ERA for Minnesota a year ago, Kintzler was nothing short of a revelation.

Having turned to a more established 9th inning presence, Rodney was guaranteed the 9th inning gig from the get go. Following along with a trend, April was a tough month for the 41 year old. Rodney posted a 5.87 ERA and had as many blown saves (3) as he did successful ones (3). At the end of that first month, I found myself as the voice of reason preaching caution. This narrative has played out before, and it's one that bears significant fruit going forward.

Since May 1, Rodney owns a 2.19 ERA for the Twins and has allowed opposing batters to compile just a .514 OPS against him. He's 17/19 in save opportunities, and has been the lockdown presence any team would hope for in the late innings. What's maybe most impressive, is that Rodney is putting up numbers that rival some of his best season, despite his advanced age. The 3.3 BB/9 is the second lowest tally of his career, and over a full free pass better than his career average. He's still setting down batters at a 10.0 K/9 rate, and he's kept hitters in check.

Across the board, there's really nothing exceptional about the totals that the Twins closer is putting up. What's more important however, is that there's no areas for concern either. Rodney is 41 years old, and still competing at a level that many of his contemporaries would strive for. His velocity still averages out above 95 mph, and he remains virtually the same pitcher he's always been. For the gamble that Minnesota placed in acquiring his services, this is definitely a success story for all parties involved.

Time will tell, but the expectation should be that Rodney is moved before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Having worked almost entirely in the closer role, it would stand to reason that a team needing a 9th inning arm would make the most sense. No matter where he goes however, the 41 year old will probably end up being superior to many of the younger arms surrounding him. Whether it be his workout regimen or dedication to the game, continuing to be this good for this long is nothing short of exceptional.

This narrative has played out in Twins Territory before. From Jim Thome, to Colon, and now Rodney, seeing guys well past their prime competing at such a high level is something of a marvel. There's no reason for Rodney to be considering calling it quits any time soon, and at this stage in his career, that's something to hang his hat on.

Berrios and Rodney Tweaks are the Difference

For the Minnesota Twins in 2018, two of their most important pitchers in the rotation and bullpen are Jose Berrios and Fernando Rodney. With Berrios serving as the rotation's bonafide ace, and Rodney bringing up the rear in games with a lead, Paul Molitor needs both of them to be right far more often than they aren't. Unfortunately, both have gone through a dry spell in 2018, but it appears a couple of tweaks has each right back on track.

Starting in the rotation with Berrios, we've seen both ends of the spectrum through the first two months of the season. Across his first four starts of 2018 for the Twins, Berrios own a 1.63 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters to compile just a .378 OPS against him. He tallied 29 strikeouts to pair with just five walks. For a guy who has had command issues in the past, the results were nothing short of greatness. Then however, we got to April 24th.

In the first game following his dominant outing in Puerto Rico, Berrios came up against the Yankees. He surrendered five runs on six hits in the Bronx and took his second loss of the year. Things didn't get better from there, and the four game stretch would turn ugly by the time the dust settled. From the 24th through May 10th, Berrios posted an 8.84 ERA and allowed a 1.027 opponent OPS. His stuff had seemingly left him, and it was his curveball that appeared most out of whack. Working with pitching coach Garvin Alston during a bullpen session, reports suggested the curveball had been fixed.

On Tuesday night against the St. Louis Cardinals that appeared to ring true. Berrios posted a 2,389 RPM on his curve against St. Louis, despite averaging just a 2,327 RPM mark over his previous four starts. He also got swinging strikes on the pitch 15.7% (16/102) of the time, as opposed to the 10.6% (35/330) he generated in the four starts prior. With more bite on his breaking pitch, it appeared that Berrios was back to his normal self on the bump.

Out of the bullpen, the Twins needed Fernando Rodney to make a tweak as well. Despite still throwing gas at an advanced age, it has always been his changeup that Rodney has relied upon and thrived with. For whatever reason, he decided to abandon the pitch in coming over to the Twins.

During his first 8 outings, Rodney threw 6.2 IP while balooning to a 6.75 ERA with a .991 OPS against. He was tossing his changeup just 18.6% of the time, and finding very little success. Fast forward to today, and he's gone another 7.0 IP with a 0.00 ERA and a .350 OPS against. In that time span, he's been using the offspeed pitch 27.1% of the time.

Without having conversations with the closer, it's hard to determine why he'd abandon a regular usage of arguably his most effective pitch. Given the start to the Twins season weather wise however, it's worth questioning if the snow or cold may have played an effect. Grip can be tough on a major league baseball as is, throwing in suboptimal weather conditions no doubt only increases that reality. Right now though, it appears Rodney has things back in control and is utilizing his changeup more closely to his career norms. With a 35.6% career usage rate on the pitch, it's still a bit below where he's been, but things are trending in the right direction.

The Fernando Rodney Experience is always going to be a rollercoaster, but having him pitch out of the closer role is the most optimal scenario for the Twins. Allowing pitchers like Addison Reed and Ryan Pressly to be deployed in high leverage at any point during the game is of massive value. The same can't be said about Rodney, and keeping him effective in the 9th allows the Twins to best position themselves for wins on a nightly basis.

Minnesota continuing to push the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central will rest heavily on the shoulders of both Berrios and Rodney throughout the year. Making quick tweaks when necessary is extremely valuable, and keeping their respective focuses on point is imperative for sustained success.

Pen Provies Possible Upside In Minnesota

As things stand, the Minnesota Twins have made two moves regarding their bullpen this offseason. In signing both Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke to one-year deals, they bring in proven veterans with skills in all the right places for the Twins. It seems Derek Falvey and Thad Levine sent a message in their relief acquisitions, and looking back to 2017, it is one that should be well received.

While teams have long since began venturing down the path of super bullpens, some of them go about it differently. At their peak, the Kansas City Royals seemed to do it more organically, while the Cleveland Indians moved some pieces around, and the current Colorado Rockies just threw money at everyone with a pulse. The idea that a start can be shortened through a strong bullpen is a good one, but it isn't a band-aid that can be applied to every organization.

For Minnesota, the reality is that both the starting pitching and relief staff needed work. With the cost of acquiring a starter being what it is, spending top dollar on a minimal impact role like a reliever is a tough ask. Instead, the Twins got creative by targeting high strikeout guys with strong track records. On top of that, they did so without much potential for negative repercussions considering the length and terms of each deal.

Where this story starts though, is at the beginning. Looking back to 2017, it's hard not to see Paul Molitor and his staff in a much better place when having to deploy relief help. There's no arguing that the Twins don't have an elite pen (or maybe even an above average one), but much improved is something they should have in spades.

On Opening Day of 2017, the Twins trotted Tyler Duffey, Michael Tonkin, Justin Haley, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, Brandon Kintzler, Craig Breslow, and Taylor Rogers out to the bullpen. Of that group, only three remain, and each of them should find a spot in the 2018 pen from the jump. Assuming Minnesota goes with seven relievers (after beginning with eight a year ago), I'd imagine the group consists of: Duffey, Rogers, Pressly, Trevor Hildenberger, Zach Duke, Alan Busenitz, and Fernando Rodney.

Looking at the holdovers, you have two guys that have the ability to pitch in high leverage. While Pressly is the velocity guy, Duffey worked as a closer in college. Both can put the ball past opposing hitters, and looking for K/9 rates above 8.0 should be a safe assumption. In Rogers, Molitor gets a guy that was tested in his second year, and showed he can get batters out on both sides of the plate. Moving more towards the middle innings, he can act more as the second lefty, and be somewhat of a specialist.

In categorizing the additions, the Twins have a lot of new weapons at their disposal. Despite his age, Rodney is still pumping fastballs in the upper 90's. Yes he walks batters, but over the course of a full season, it's hard not to see him being an asset. Duke returned from Tommy John in record time, and the biggest takeaway from 2017 for him was health. He's a year removed from a 10.0 K/9 with the bulk of the season spent in the AL Central. Hildenberger and Busenitz both stepped in huge down the stretch for Minnesota a season ago. The former looked the part of a potential closer, while the latter is another velocity arm (95.8mph) that should see the strikeouts rise.

Given that this group is relatively established, and there's a bit more depth behind them, the Twins can feel a bit more at ease about their current positioning. We've been waiting on top relief arms to surface for some time, but names like Hildenberger, Busenitz, and John Curtiss simply stepped up first. Should J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, and Jake Reed see their time come in 2018, the overall water level for the relief corps will only continue to rise.

At the end of the day, the Twins bullpen isn't going to wow anyone on paper. For fans who've followed the organization however, it looks like one of the better groups in quite some time, and one that speaks to a certain level of sustainability. It took some time to get away from the soft tossing aspect in relief, but that doesn't appear to be the plan of action for anyone (save for Duke) who will enter the field from behind the wall. It may all blow up when the action actually starts, but there's reason for optimism with the current collection to be sure.

Twins Talking At Winter meetings

Monday marks a glorious day on the offseason calendar in regards to Major League Baseball. This season in Nashville, the Winter Meetings have officially commenced. With everybody who is anybody in the game of baseball in attendance, the Hot Stove is at its most scalding, and the acquisition market (both free agent and trade) is bubbling over. The question is, what do the Twins do this week?

After offering contracts to each of the six arbitration eligible players, the Twins 40 man roster currently stands at capacity. Don't let that deter focus however, the club has room to improve. With a handful of players that could still be removed from the 40 man, Minnesota has some definite targets this week.

Looking at the biggest area of need for Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, relief pitching is a glaring weakness. Owning one of the worst bullpens in the big leagues a season ago, you can bet the Twins will be talking to many relievers this week. Off them, two names jump off the page.

First and foremost, Minnesota has been linked to 38 year-old Fernando Rodney. Playing for $7 million with the Mariners and Cubs in 2015, his price will be significantly lowered. Although his 14 games with the Cubs produced a 0.75 ERA, the collective whole was uninspiring. Rodney owned a 4.92 FIP (fielding independent pitching) mark, and a 4.74 ERA in 2015. He struck out just 8.3 per nine while walking 4.2 per nine. In total, it was his worst season since 2011 with the Angels. For all of his detractors, Rodney is a year removed from an All Star season, and Major League leading 48 save campaign in 2014. Minnesota could do worse, but should exercise caution here.

Another arm that the club has been linked to is that of 32 year-old Tony Sipp. A relative average arm for the majority of his career, Sipp put together a 1.99 ERA and 2.9# FIP across 60 games a season ago. His 10.3 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 would be at the top of the Twins pen. His FIP numbers over the last two seasons suggest 2015 wasn't a fluke, but he's probably not going to repeat the same level of success. Said to be looking for around $5-6 million per year, coming to Minnesota on a two or three year deal would make a lot of sense.

Then there's the trade market, and that's one that the Twins seem to have only one or two logical pieces for. While the farm system is overflowing with top-tier talent, Ryan doesn't seem interested in a package to acquire a high-end player at this point. What he could do is deal from a position of depth.

Trevor Plouffe still remains the most likely player to be traded out of Minnesota. Despite Ryan continuing to claim that Miguel Sano is destined for the outfield, moving Plouffe seems like a much better strategy. The Angels continue to be the team that makes the most sent, and relievers like Cam Bedrosian or Trevor Gott could probably be had in return. Plouffe is no doubt an asset to the Twins, but if they can get a solid relief arm in return, it may push the needle of the club as a whole.

Probably far from likely, but worth mentioning, is the possibility of moving Eddie Rosario. With Minnesota moving Aaron Hicks to the Yankees, it's likely that those around baseball see Rosario as having lesser value. He had a great rookie year, but his free-swinging tendencies provide a reason for caution moving forward. The Twins have Max Kepler on the way, and outfield options at multiple different levels. If they saw a fit in moving Rosario, there's little reason to believe he's untouchable.

Finally, there's always the revisiting of what was rumblings of mutual interest in the San Diego Padres assets. I still have a hard time seeing where Ricky Nolasco fits for the Twins, and a swap to San Diego in exchange for James Shields could make a lot of sense. Both are bad contracts, but Big Game James may be better suited to pitch in the American League than Nolasco has proven. San Diego is motivated to move him, but are the Twins willing to take the bait?

After a fast start to the offseason, I'd put the over/under for moves the Twins make this week at the Winter Meetings at a conservative 1.5. Right now, I'll take the over. I think the team speak probably comes to a head, and Plouffe is dealt. If he isn't this week, it may not happen at all. On top of that, I think Terry Ryan is at least aware he can't go into the season with the bullpen constructed as it currently is. Look for him to address that one way or another.

The baseball landscape is going to be shook up this week, and it's the Winter Meetings that we have to thank for it.