2022 AL Central Division Projection

We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams.

The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either.

Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses.

Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71)

Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here.

Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76)

If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound.

Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95)

Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move.

Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92)

Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet.

Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85)

You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward.

What the AL Central Taught Us in a Full Season

 

Forget the fact that 2020 was an uncharacteristically weird and difficult year in and of itself, trying to deduce anything from the shortened baseball season proved impossible. Back to a more traditional slate in 2021, we have some storylines to actually dive into.

Rather than focusing just on the Minnesota Twins, I think it’s worthwhile to take a look at the division as a whole. The AL Central was projected to be among baseball’s worst, and while that may be true, there are some signs of hope across the board. New contenders emerged, and talents have risen. Here’s a few of my takeaways from each of the competitors within the division.

Chicago White Sox

Expected to compete with the Twins for an AL Central division title, Chicago ran away with it. Up by more than double-digits for most of the second half, this season was not the Southsiders playing little brother to the nationally branded Cubs anymore. This wasn’t much of a race from about May on, and that was definitely to Chicago’s credit.

Tony La Russa’s club dealt with more injuries than anyone in the division, and despite depth seeming like a question, they weather and excelled through the storm. Luis Robert looks like an absolute problem, and Eloy Jimenez is going to hit a boatload of homers. Lance Lynn has been a Cy Young candidate all year, and Liam Hendriks has been every bit the stud closer he was signed to be. Sustainability appears to be there for the White Sox, and if anyone wants to knock them off their throne they’ll need to rise up in a big way.

If there’s opportunity for Chicago it may come down to a lack of challenge. They’ve played .500 baseball since mid-season, but they haven’t had anyone provide a test within the division. Depending on how the Postseason goes for them, tenacity could be ratcheted up in 2022 and a 100-win campaign may be their next goal to surpass.

Cleveland

The most notable thing that Cleveland has done this year may be changing their name to the Guardians. This was a team expected to take a step backwards and it has. Built largely around stud pitching, they’ve dealt with substantial injuries to the rotation. Once baseball cracked down on sticky substances, few organizations found it more detrimental than these guys did. Star reliever James Karinchak is a mess, and there’s more uncertainty about a future direction for this club than ever.

Jose Ramirez remains a stud, but it still was probably a down year by his standards. Team options remain each of the next two seasons, and while it will be picked up, there’s little reason for a talent like this to be a part of a rebuild. Cleveland doesn’t have much around the diamond, has remained lost in the outfield, and they could be looking at Terry Francona deciding his health won’t allow for a return.

Consistently one of the division’s best, this is definitely looking like an opportunity for a changing of the guard. They haven’t been horrible by any means, but the lack of anything noteworthy happening for Cleveland this season is about as descriptive as one could imagine.

Detroit Tigers

Arguably one of the best surprises this season has been the emergence of the Detroit Tigers. Under new management in the form of A.J. Hinch, this isn’t a Ron Gardenhire club looking to get through to the next wave anymore. Detroit has been the best team in the division since about the halfway point, and that’s scary for anyone uncertain if they’re figuring it out.

Miguel Cabrera reached his milestone, but this team is all about the youth movement. Matt Manning made his debut, Casey Mize has looked the part at times, and Akil Baddoo has looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft selections in history. Add in that top prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene are both at Triple-A and the talent pool gets even scarier for this club.

I’m not sure we’ve seen enough to suggest Detroit is making the leap in 2022 yet, but there’s no doubt the arrow for the organization is pointing straight up. Hinch is a good man to lead them. The front office needs to be a bit more forward thinking and show aggressiveness, but the Tigers don’t reside in the doldrums anymore.

Kansas City Royals

I picked the Royals to unseat Cleveland for third in the division this year, and while they’re six games behind, the narrative is of a fast start and then quickly gassing out. Kansas City made some interesting moves this offseason in hopes of raising their water level. Most of them had safe floors and low ceilings. With peaks coming early for a lot of that talent, they sputtered quickly and never really leveled off.

The Royals are in a weird spot with many of their regulars. Salvador Perez put up a career year but will be 32-years-old despite now being signed through 2025. Carlos Santana has not been good, and Andrew Benintendi needed a late season surge to save his slash line. The rotation has seen some great exposure for youth like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and even Jackson Kowar. Is it enough to jumpstart the turnaround in 2022 though?

Helping the Royals out will be a pair of infielders ready to rake. Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Prato both appear big-league ready, and they should be able to step in quickly next season. This is a team with plenty of questions, not a ton of certain answers, but some very intriguing options.

Minnesota Twins

If there was a group that failed in the division there’s no where else to turn than the Twins. Expected to defend two straight division titles, they never made things interesting with Chicago. Pitching started out a disaster and then shifted between which group was to blame. The offense took a while to get going, and then major injury issues set them back again.

Three of the best developments this season came in the form of health proving performance for Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and Byron Buxton. The two former talents had down years with small sample sizes while playing through injury last season. Buxton only further substantiated that he’s among the best in the game when available. Both of the first two will be back, and while the third is under contract, he’s a year from free agency and the organization much decide which way to go.

Baldelli will be working through adversity for the first offseason of his career. Derek Falvey must retool the roster with talent that can be paired with youth in order to take a step forward. It was also made abundantly clear that too much depth is never a problem you’ll have.

2021 AL Central Division Projection

 

As teams begin to kick off a more traditional Spring Training with the goal of completing it entirely this season, we’re now looking forward to a full 162-game slate. The Twins return as repeat AL Central Division champions, and they’ll look for a three-peat in 2021.

 

Shuffling has taken place throughout the Central with Chicago having had a strong offseason, Cleveland selling off, and Kansas City quietly making some noise. Last year I put this projection piece out in February, and then needed to come up with an amended version at the end of July.

 

Let’s hope for good health and as much baseball as we can handle this time around. Here’s how I have the AL Central going, along with PECOTA projections in parenthesis.

 

Minnesota Twins 97-63 (90-72)

It’s more than fair to suggest the Twins could’ve taken further steps forward this offseason, however they had the least to improve upon. Piece did depart, but none of them were substantial contributors and the addition of Andrelton Simmons should make a massive impact defensively. This team is going to go as far as a healthy Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton allow them too. It’d be great if Miguel Sano were the Nelson Cruz aging insurance along the way. Expect additions at the deadline, and a stable of prospects are near ready to contribute.

Chicago White Sox 90-72 (82-80)

There’s no denying that the South Siders have closed even more of the gap. That said, I still think this club is in for some regression given the unpredictability of youth. They broke out in a big way during a shortened 2020 campaign that afforded them the luxury of small sample sizes. Thinking back to the 2018 Twins, a similar swoon could happen here. The talent level is too great to drift too far, but they should be considered a runner-up. Postseason expectations are a must however, and they shouldn’t have much problem achieving that.

Kansas City Royals 78-84 (72-90)

While the Royals are not yet there, and they are waiting on some offensive prospects to step up, they did a lot of nice things this winter. The Mike Minor signing was an underrated one, and Carlos Santana should provide a steadying veteran presence for them. I like Brady Singer and Kris Bubic in the rotation and think there’s a different trajectory here than in years past. This isn’t a Kansas City club yet ready to compete, but they’re substantially better than the bottom feeding Tigers and should have more firepower than Cleveland.

Cleveland Indians 77-85 (85-77)

Rather than load up for one last go with a strong rotation and a final year of Francisco Lindor, Cleveland decided to punt on 2021. The rotation is top heavy with Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, but beyond that there’s more question marks with upside than anything. They’ve done a good job developing arms, and I’d expect that to continue, but it still needs to be proven. There isn’t much talent in the field or at the plate, and if they aren’t going to compete it makes little sense to hang onto Jose Ramirez. Assuming he’s dangled at the deadline, they could accelerate the rebuild they’re now destined for.

Detroit Tigers 65-97 (66-96)

A.J. Hinch has a tall task in front of him as this isn’t a club rich with talent akin to the Astros teams he’s used to having led. That said, there’s going to be a handful of prospects that filter into Comerica this year, and Detroit has one of the best systems in the game. I’d expect some of those kids to take their lumps, and even if they do produce, there’s just not enough on the roster to raise the overall water level. That said, this club isn’t far from turning the corner and adding pieces with a focus on competing once again.

Critical Week for the Twins

The Minnesota Twins have jumped out to a 7-2 start for the 9^th time in franchise history, and first since 2001. Facing arguably the toughest portion of their schedule, they’ve certainly been up to the challenge. Now with some basement dwellers on tap, this is a massively important week.

Rocco Baldelli’s club welcomes former bench coach Derek Shelton to Target Field tonight for a two-game, home and home series. The Pirates are just 2-7, don’t have much in the form of Major League talent, and also aren’t ready to call up any impact prospects. The Twins getting four games with a team expected to finish near the bottom of the NL Central is a nice reward following the tough stretch.

From there, things don’t get too much tougher either. While the road trip does continue to Kansas City, three games with the Royals is something this very good ballclub should be licking their chops about. Mike Matheny’s group may not finish below the Detroit Tigers, but both clubs should be battling to be the worst in the AL Central.

While that’s seven games in a row where Minnesota should be substantial favorites, the schedule also tilts in their direction when it comes to the chief competition. Cleveland has a home and home series with the Reds before traveling to face the White Sox and needing to cannibalize a division rival. Chicago does the home and home thing with Milwaukee to start their week off.

Just nine games in the Twins already have a 2.0 game lead, but they also have a +22-run differential with the White Sox behind them at +5. By the end of the week Minnesota could have something like a four or five game lead, and in a season that the number represents over 8% of the total action, that’s substantial.

You could make a very solid argument that the Twins toughest part of the season is now behind them. They do have a difficult run in September that spans just over a week and includes the Cardinals, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs as opponents. While that period certainly will determine the division, setting themselves up in such impressive starting position is a very enviable spot to be in.

Only the New York Yankees have a better record than Minnesota right now and just the Dodgers have a better run differential (+30). Baldelli’s lineup hasn’t come close to thriving yet, and still a significant part of the damage is being done in the first two innings. However, the Twins haven’t lost when scoring first so jumping on the opposing starter early is hardly a bad strategy.

We knew this season was going to be a sprint, and a good start generally sets up the ability for some pace in the middle. Josh Donaldson needs to get healthy and return. The lineup needs to get going. There are some tweaks to be made, but this group is setting up for something special.

Projecting the 2020 AL Central Division

We’ve finally made it and baseball is back in just a matter of days. The Minnesota Twins will kick off this 60-game sprint in Chicago, and they’ll look to distance themselves from a team looking to prove they’re ready. I put out a 162-game projection back in February, but with so many logistical changes and update is necessary.

I don’t foresee any changes in the positioning among the teams from where I had them at the beginning of the year, but we’re obviously only going to play roughly one-third of the games now. There’s significantly more volatility involved, and it will play against Minnesota more than any other club.

That said, here’s how the division shakes out this season, and in parenthesis what the PECOTA projections are for each team in this scenario:

Minnesota Twins 36-24 (35-25)

There’s no argument to be made that Minnesota isn’t the best team in this division. They have arguably the best lineup in baseball and aren’t far behind with their bullpen. The rotation is cemented in depth and there’s plenty of candidates to be a top-tier arm as well. Josh Donaldson is a massive addition and having Rich Hill from the jump should be a nice boost. The Twins have stiffer competition in the White Sox this year, but it’s hard not to see the Indians having taken a step backwards.

Cleveland Indians 32-28 (32-28)

While it won’t be long before Chicago overtakes Cleveland, I’m not sure it happens in 2020. Cleveland still has an awesome rotation at the top with Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. Clevinger is already a health risk though, and Carlos Carrasco’s return is a question mark. Save for Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, there’s also concerns about star power in the lineup. Should this club stumble out of the gate, maybe Lindor gets moved at the deadline.

Chicago White Sox 31-29 (31-29)

I’m all in on Luis Robert, he’s going to be a stud. What his career ends up being remains to be seen, and while I think he could break out right away, there’s still plenty more that needs to go right for the White Sox. Lucas Giolito faded at times in 2019, and neither Dallas Keuchel nor Gio Gonzalez are impact pitchers anymore. Yasmani Grandal is a huge addition, but someone had to supplement the flash in the pan that was James McCann a year ago. The Southsiders will be knocking at the door soon, and the shortened season helps their chances, but give it one more year.

Kansas City Royals 24-36 (25-35)

Down here you’re really competing for the best of the worst, and I’m not certain what way these final two shake out. It’s my belief that the Royals slide will be less drastic than the volatility of the Tigers prospects. Kansas City isn’t good, and they aren’t exciting either. There are some pieces here though that can squeak out enough to stay out of the bottom spot in the division.

Detroit Tigers 22-38 (26-34)

I’m really excited to see what Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Alex Faedo, and Riley Greene can do. Unfortunately, none of those guys will be on the Opening Day roster, and while watching Miguel Cabrera chase down records is fun, there’s nothing else of note here. I don’t think Ron Gardenhire is the right guy to push a prospect-laden team forwards as that’s where he ended his tenure with the Twins, so he may see his way out around the time new faces make their debuts.

In case you missed it, here’s how I have the yearly awards and Postseason shaking out as well:

Award Winners and World Series Victors

2019 AL Central Division Preview

We are now at the point in the Major League Baseball calendar where exhibition games have commenced, teams are looking at how to fill out their 25-man roster, and the regular season is on the horizon. Although a few marquee free agents remain, I’m at a point where I feel good about how what could potentially be baseball’s worst division, is going to play out. The incumbent division winning Cleveland Indians are ready to defend their throne and it’ll be on a challenger to emerge.

Including current PECOTA projections (as of February 26, 2019) next to predicted records, here’s how this writer has the standings for the American League Central playing out:

1. Minnesota Twins 92-70 (83-79)

No team has done more in the division to take strides forward than the Twins for 2019. While that’s great in a vacuum, no team was also able to make bigger moves than Minnesota as well. I’ve dug deeper into why I think this is realistic in a secondary piece here, but the front office must be hoping what they’ve done is enough. Despite what’s being billed as a “wait and see” type approach, I’m all in on the Falvey and Levine being vindicated in their decision making.

2. Cleveland Indians 89-73 (96-66)

Quite opposite of the Twins, arguably no team within the division has gotten worse than the Indians. Cleveland loses Michael Brantley as well as Edwin Encarnacion. They’ve replaced the latter with Carlos Santana, but there’s no outfield to speak of, and significant reliance on repeat performances. Trevor Bauer, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor all posted career year’s in 2018, all while Cleveland mustered just 91 wins. Lindor will miss the beginning of the season, and despite the rotation still being among the best in baseball, it’s hard not wondering what else to fall in love with surrounding this team.

3. Chicago White Sox 73-89 (70-92)

One of the trendiest teams in baseball right now, the White Sox are being lauded for their stellar farm system. There’s no denying that Eloy Jimenez is a stud, and he’s backed by names like Kopech, Cease, and Robert. The first starter on that list is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery though, and there’s always an incredible amount of volatility when it comes to top prospects (ask Twins fans about that.) Manny Machado would’ve moved the needle for this franchise, but instead of going all in, Kenny Williams signed friends and family hoping that would be enough. Chicago will get there, and an 11-game jump in the win column from 2018 is no small task, but that’s about where the fun ends.

4. Kansas City Royals 69-93 (72-90)

Welcome to the dreaded middle ground. It was great for the Royals that they popped up and won a World Series, as the fanbase could be looking at mediocrity or worse for quite some time. The big-league club is void of any real star potential, and the farm system is among the worst in baseball. Kansas City can’t spend big with it making any sort of a difference, but they’ve also yet to hit on any prospects that put them in a better light going forward. If you’re a Royals fan, the highlight of the season is June 3^rd when Dayton Moore will have the second overall pick in the 2019 Major League Baseball Draft.

5. Detroit Tigers 62-100 (67-95)

If Kansas City is considered the dreaded middle ground, then Detroit is trending in a much better direction. The Tigers have a strong farm system headlined by pitching stalwarts, and they also hold the 5^th overall pick this summer. There’s still plenty of questions surrounding both Michael Fulmer and Matthew Boyd, and Detroit is hoping to see Nicholas Castellanos take yet another step forward, but there’s some building blocks here. Miguel Cabrera is on his way to Cooperstown, but Niko Goodrum has provided some immediate intrigue in the infield. This team won’t be good in 2019, but they could certainly flip the script in the coming years.

The Flip Side of Selling

Right now, the Minnesota Twins own a 1.7% probability when it comes to making the postseason per Fangraphs. I recently wrote about how Minnesota can utilize their remaining schedule if and when they decide to sell off. Should the losing continue, things become very clear for this squad. What makes things interesting however, is the slate that lies ahead.

So far, the Twins have found themselves playing a significant amount of games outside of the AL Central. While divisional matchups are all bound to get in eventually, it's of note for Minnesota given the poor quality of competition. Obviously the Cleveland Indians have the same opportunity to beat bad teams, but the Twins schedule sets up favorably. In September, 17 of the 28 games come against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. In August, the club plays more than their fair share of games against Cleveland, as well as Kansas City.

What that means for Paul Molitor's squad is somewhat of an unknown at this point. Having recently faced both the White Sox and Royals, Minnesota is enjoying a nice five game winning streak. On the year, the Twins are just 12-10 against the three "poor" teams in the division, while owning a 6-3 record against Cleveland.

Beating bad teams, or the ones that you should beat, is what good teams make a habit of. Sitting eight games below .500 at the moment, Minnesota can't say they've capitalized on opportunities thus far. What makes things somewhat interesting, is that there's plenty of opportunity ahead.

I don't know that I believe this club can turn it around. On paper coming into the year, this should've been a very good team. The pitching has been there, but seeing very little from players like Dozier, Morrison, Sano, Buxton, and Kepler has crippled the offense. Should they all turn it around, we're talking about a much different outlook down the stretch. The Indians have their warts, and a clicking Twins team is more than capable of holding serve.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are stuck in the position of deciding whether or not they're willing to bet on their expected producers to turn things around. They've got roughly two more weeks to evaluate the progress, and while they could end up being sellers, don't really have a big trade chip of note.

Given what we've seen thus far, it's hard to bet on a group of five or six guys all turning things around and competing at a high level. If half of those players become assets however, we could be in for a bit of interesting baseball slightly longer than anticipated. The unfortunate flip side to this however, is that the middle ground seems to be where this is all trending, and that's hardly an enviable place to be. Not bad enough to grab a top third draft pick, but not good enough to make the playoffs, the success would then need to be measured on what you learned or the evaluation that took place.

While not dead, the Twins are on life support. They have a few key contributors that could help them to pull through, and if that takes place in even the slightest fashion, the opponents that wait down the road may be of assistance as well.

2018 AL Central Division Preview

With free agency being a bit slower moving (to put it nicely) this offseason, this piece comes out a few weeks later than in previous years. At this point, there's still a handful of quality major league talent unemployed. For the most part, I think the AL Central is looking towards the year ahead as opposed to who else can join them in competing during 2018.

Projection systems have started to run win totals for the upcoming season, and major sportsbook Bovada has also posted over/under win totals for each team. Rather than hold out for the last of the remaining free agents to leave IMG Academy in Bradenton, it's time to throw numbers out for the Twins and their competition.

Here's how I see the AL Central in 2018:

1. Cleveland Indians (98-64)

The team at the top of the division seems to have taken a slight step backwards over the offseason. Carlos Santana left for the Phillies, and key pen arm Bryan Shaw is no longer in the mix. Yonder Alonso will have to recapture his Oakland magic if he's going to remove the memory of Santana, and it'll be lightning in a bottle if Melvin Upton or one of the MiLB deals pans out well.

That said, the Indians are still the team to be in the division, and it's largely on the backs of a strong pitching staff. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco remain lights out at the top, with a strong duo of Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer behind them. The bottom half of the Central getting weaker should help add some additional wins to offset some of the talent losses.

2. Minnesota Twins (87-75)

If you asked me to take a bet on what was more likely, the Twins win 90 games or lose 81, I'd take the former. After making a Postseason appearance a season ago, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine accomplished what they set out to do this winter. Although the club didn't land the big fish in Yu Darvish, Jake Odorizzi is a top three starter for them, and helps to supplement the roation. The relief corps was strengthened with the addition of Addison Reed, and both Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney should play a big role for this club.

With so many players still looking for jobs, it's fair to wonder if Minnesota doesn't aim a bit higher than Kennys Vargas or Robbie Grossman for the DH role. I'd expect Miguel Sano to miss a handful of games due to suspension, but still think he'll have a shot at surpassing the 114 contests he got into a season ago. Another year of growth for the youth, plus some key veteran additions, make the Twins the most improved team in the AL. Their record is a reflection of battling back against regression, as well as a division that should have plenty more wins to be had from the doldrums.

3. Kansas City Royals (72-90)

If there's a team that lost more than the Indians over the offseason, it's definitely the Royals. Unfortunately for Kansas City, they don't have near the ability left to overcome it. Exits from Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain will be felt mightily, and even if Mike Moustakas is brought back, the core just isn't there any longer. Jason Vargas played a key role in the first half for the Royals, and he's now in New York. Combine the exits with a lack of internal talent ready to step up and you've got somewhat of a doomsday scenario.

Right now, the Royals are treading water but don't have much of a direction. The farm doesn't have anything in terms of top prospects, and there's a lot of fliers at the top that can play fill in roles. Without much in terms of capital to deal for future talent either, it could be a bit before the Royals find themselves relevant again.

4. Chicago White Sox (69-93)

Arguably the most talent deprive 25 man roster in the division, the White Sox are in a full rebuild situation, but at least they know it. Having moved on from players in return for a good group of prospects, there's a plan in place here even if it takes a few more years to come to fruition. Over the winter, Chicago handed out a few low-risk veteran deals that should also be able to net them some pieces throughout the upcoming season.

Yoan Moncada should be a staple at the big league level this season, but guys like Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech aren't there yet. Lucas Giolito needs to be a big arm for the South Siders, and players like Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, and Dylan Cease have to develop in the year ahead as well. Most of the names Chicago will build its future around won't show up in 2018, but fans should be checking the box scores on the farm frequently.

5. Detroit Tigers (66-96)

The bottom three teams in the division provide nice comparisons to each other. If the Royals are treading water without a plan, and the White Sox are stripping it down to rebuild, the Tigers are old and stuck in some level of purgatory. Miguel Cabrera still has six-years and $184 million left on his deal, and I'd suspect no one would take on Cabrera's contract at this point. Michael Fulmer is a nice young piece, but he probably isn't going to be around by the time Detroit finds itself relevant again.

For new skipper Ron Gardenhire, the club is going to have to find a direction sooner rather than later. The club should hang around in the early going, but fading down the stretch and holding somewhat of a fire sale seems like a good bet. Gardenhire was let go around the time Minnesota could see the rebuild bear fruit, so he'll be navigating some similar waters in Motown with 90 loss seasons checking off the past four years of his resume.

2017 AL Central Division Preview

A season ago, I had the Kansas City Royals taking the AL Central division with 86 wins. I contended that not team would win 90 games, while no team would lose 90 either. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins blew by the 90 loss mark en route to a franchise worst 103 losses. After a World Series run for the Cleveland Indians, there should be little doubt they enter the 2017 as the league favorite.

When looking at the state of the Central, it's a division with a handful of teams in transition. While the Indians built this offseason, the Royals and Tigers mainly stood still. The Twins look to be relying mostly on their internal development and the Chicago White Sox have gone into an all out rebuild. The group should remain competitive this season, if for no other reason than the separation among organizations at the present time is relatively small.

With the groundwork laid, here's how I see the AL Central shaking out in 2017:

1. Cleveland Indians (91-71)

After going to the World Series a season ago, the Indians shouldn't be expected to fall off significantly. Sure, they lost Mike Napoli, but the addition of Edwin Encarnacion is a big one. If they can keep pitching healthy all year, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are about as strong of a 1-2 punch as it gets. A full season from Andrew Miller will pay dividends, and Terry Francona's club should be a shoe-in to again take the Central division crown.

2. Detroit Tigers (82-80)

The Tigers present an interesting case for 2017. The roster is aging, but the talent that comes with those players is significant. Justin Verlander very well could have won a Cy Young a season ago, and Miguel Cabrera doesn't appear to be falling off any time soon. If the club slumps through the first half though, a selloff could ensue as the farm system isn't one chock full of talent. At the highest level, Detroit has talent. They need it to age appropriately though for another year, or disaster could force the organizations hand.

3. Minnesota Twins (80-82)

If there's two teams that I can't peg for mirroring reasons in the Central it's the Twins, and the 4th entrant in the division. For Minnesota, everything went wrong a season ago, and the club ended with 103 losses. The talent is much less indicative of that number, and the emergence of young stars such as Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and hopefully Jose Berrios, should make an impact. If Paul Molitor can get anything close to mediocrity from his pitchers, the offense is capable of carrying this club. I could see them winning something like 75 games, just as likely as winning 85.

4. Kansas City Royals (79-83)

Unlike the Twins, the Royals are going to be relying on a few key veterans to hold serve in the division. It appears that their upswing might have come to an end however, and the offseason didn't provide them with many answers. Despite the tough season a year ago, replacing Yordano Ventura in an already mediocre rotation won't be easy. Brandon Moss is a solid enough pickup, but the loss of Jarrod Dyson likely will be felt. This club could be sellers at the deadline, or they could be right in the thick of things if everything breaks right.

5. Chicago White Sox (71-91)

Once again, the bottom team in the division may give the Central a chance to have no one win or lose 90 games. The White Sox already shipped out Chris Sale, and it seems to be just a matter of time before Jose Quintana goes. Todd Frazier is a piece the club could move, and David Robertson also should have value. The reality is that Chicago has committed to a full on rebuild, and they've restocked the farm with some incredible talent. It's going to pay off long term, but they should hold up the tail end of the division.

Who's Got The Over In The Central?

Now with every Major League Baseball team having hit their pitcher and catcher report dates, the upcoming season feels as close as ever. Despite snow being on the ground yet in some parts of the country, baseball is ready to bring back the feelings of summer. Prior to the action kicking off however, we have to take a look at how things are expected to play out.

Back in January, I outlined how I saw the AL Central taking shape. With the World Champion Kansas City Royals again pacing the group, it was a collection of five teams with no clear cut favorite. Now that the Las Vegas Superbook has unveiled it's over/under wins totals for each team, it's time to break down what makes sense in baseball's closest division.

Cleveland Indians 85.5

Yesterday (February 21, 2016) I offered up the following opinion on Twitter, "Despite being the favorite at multiple outlets, I have no faith in the Indians ability to win the AL Central in 2016." Hilariously, that tweet ended up going viral thanks to the Indians official account being a bit less than thrilled with my subtweet.

Regardless of the feelings coming from the club itself, I stand by that thought process. Cleveland's rotation is good, with an opportunity to be very good. The question is whether or not that offense can score enough runs. I don't see the Indians winning the central, and 86 wins may accomplish that. When it comes to Terry Francona's group, I'm taking a pass:

Verdict: Under

Kansas City Royals 83.5

Let's be clear, I've been down on the Royals for quite some time, and continued to be even after their World Series loss of 2014. That being said, the time in which I continue to scoff at Ned Yost's club has come and gone. Going into the 2016 season, Kansas City absolutely has to be the favorite to win the AL Central.

Sure, the Royals rotation is an absolute joke, and their offense is very likely going to take a step backwards. I don't believe in Lorenzo Cain being an MVP candidate for a second straight year, and while I'd love for Mike Moustakas to replicate his 2015, I think he more or less takes a slight step backwards. When the dust settles though, this club knows how to win, and they should do so more than 84 times.

Verdict: Over

Detroit Tigers 80.5

Laying some ground work here, I don't like the Tigers, and neither do the over/under numbers. 81 wins would constitute a .500 season, but would also be an increase of eight wins from where Detroit finished in 2015. For a team that is looking to stave off regression, it's a worthy cause that may not end up playing out.

The Tigers have plenty of questions coming into the 2016 season surrounding their current roster. What Justin Verlander is going to be available? Can Anibal Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera stay healthy? What kind of contributions will manager Brad Ausmus get (or need) from a relatively poor farm system? At the end of the day, the Tigers should be better than they were a year ago, but the eight win jump is probably a bit too rich for my taste.

Verdict: Under

Chicago White Sox 80.5

The White Sox are an interesting team to peg in 2016. They spent relatively heavily last offseason, and ended up falling flat. Totaling just 76 wins last season, there's no doubt manager Robin Ventura was hoping for significantly better. Improvement should be coming this season however.

Unlike the Tigers, the White Sox rotation is actually good, and has youth on its side. Chris Sale is among baseball's best pitchers, and having Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon behind him makes for a fearsome trio. The offense will continue to be formidable for Chicago, especially considering additions of Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie. If I'm taking a bottom of the division team to make a turnaround, it's the White Sox.

Verdict: Over

Minnesota Twins 79.5

In 2015, few teams in baseball were more lucky than Minnesota. With runners in scoring position, the Twins generated hits at a ridiculous pace. They found themselves coming up big in clutch situations far more often than not, and there's no doubt the win category thanked them for it. What's unfortunate about all of those facts is that they are unrepeatable from a conscious standpoint.

Looking at the Central as a whole, there's probably no team with a higher probability than the Twins to win it, or finish dead last. Minnesota is going to be able to pitch, and should have both an improved staff and pen from a season ago. The offense will be there, and should have a lot of pop, but there's going to be a ton of strikeouts. Paul Molitor's group will need things to go their way more often than not. It could happen, but it also very likely may not.

Verdict: Over 

World Series Or Bust: What's Baseball About?

You play to win the game, a phrase many a coach has muttered. While it's not the feelings of some, you can count me among the group that thinks participation medals and pats on the back have no place in competitive sports. You win or you lose, there is no gray area. When you lose, you've come short of the ultimate goal. In professional sports though, where there is a clear cut number of teams, and only one ultimate winner, what defines success? Looking at the Twins and Royals, this has become an interesting topic.

Just a few days ago, the Kansas City Royals capped off their 2015 Major League Baseball season as World Series champions. The title was the first for the franchise since 1985, and separated 20 losing seasons between the two championships. Between being the best in the big leagues, the Royals lost over 100 games four times, and 90 or more another nine times. Having both good and bad put into context, local radio personality Phil Mackey posed a question:

For Twins fans discrediting Royals franchise, which 15-yr run would you rather have: Twins '01-15? Or KC '01-15? (TEN 90-L seasons + WS)?

— Phil Mackey (@PhilMackey) November 3, 2015

So what's the answer then?

For me, the answer seemed pretty simple. Give me a franchise with the performance of the Twins every single day. While the World Series hasn't been won in the Twin Cities since 1991, victories in baseball are measured by much different standards.

The sport deems the best hitters in the world fail seven out of ten times. Some of the best pitchers give up around three runs per game. Over the course of 162 games, the winners are losers are often decided by less than three victories, and even the best teams lose well over one-third of the games they play. Watching, following, and being a fan of a franchise for that one trophy endeavor is a long and lonely road.

Since 2001 (not 1985), the Twins have lost 90 games just four times. Minnesota has won six AL Central Division titles, while producing nine winning seasons. They've had batting champions as well as two league MVP's. Since 2001, the Twins have enjoyed baseball being relevant, and one of the most important sports in the upper midwest.

Now, while the answer is simple for some, it's more than fair to consider why it isn't for others. There's no doubt winning a World Series (and all that comes with it), is the ultimate prize. The celebration parade, bringing the Commissioner's Trophy home, the champagne, it's all represents the highest goal. For Royals fans, or really any franchise, it's also fair to wonder if a recency effect comes into play.

Outside of San Francisco Giants fans, you'd be hard pressed to find many that care who won the 2014 World Series. Baseball fans as a whole can marvel at the performance that Madison Bumgarner turned in over a seven game series, but the eventual result is a thing of the past. So to will that become for the Royals. As the calendar quickly turns to the offseason, only in Kansas City will the Crown be celebrated.

Of course there's no wrong answer here, it's a matter of opinion. When looking at a sport where failure is more prevalent than success though, I see no reason to not revel in the production a team does achieve. Greatness is earned by only one a year, but franchises that have sustainability on their side are generally the ones most often celebrated. Give me meaningful outcomes over years of despair for the tradeoff that one game erases it all.

World Series Primer: They'll Never Be Royal

 

The Major League Postseason is quickly coming to a close, and we now have entered World Series territory. With the Kansas City Royals outlasting the Toronto Blue Jays, they will meet the New York Mets fresh off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs. Two contrasting clubs go at it with a ring on the line for only one of them. Now, who comes out on top?

For the Mets, the advantage starts on the bump. Throwing Matt Harvey in game one is a nice start, but following him up with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz is what really makes the difference. Utilizing a four man rotation compiled of top-of-the-rotation talent puts the Royals up against a tough task. There's no doubt that the starting rotation for the Mets will pace them in the series.

On the offensive side for New York, it's the tale of two seasons. A competitive club through the first half, it was the second half addition of Yoenis Cespedes that brought them to a new level. Combine Cespedes' bat with the explosion that has been Daniel Murphy in the playoffs, and the Mets have a lethal run producing lineup. For all of the Mets positives though, this is uncharted territory from the team hailing from Citi Field.

Owning home field advantage and one of the best records in baseball, the Royals are back where their season ended a year ago. After falling to the San Francisco Giants a season ago, Kansas City is looking to end 2015 on a better note. While the pitching matchups to start the game are definitely not in their favor, Ned Yost's squad won't take leading games lightly.

If it's the Mets rotation that looms large, it's the Royals bullpen that does the same. Following a starter, opposing hitters know they have the combination of Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson, and Wade Davis to look forward to. All but guaranteeing a lead stays in tact after the 7th inning, Kansas City is able to significantly shorten a game.

Offensively, the Royals are nothing to scoff at either. Despite not playing the Mets this season, the Royals owned a +83 run differential (as opposed to the Mets +70). Paced by established youth such as Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador Perez, the Royals talent has been battle tested in this same situation. With the benefit of home field advantage, the Royals also have a 51-30 record on their side at The K during the regular season. Unfortunately for the Mets, they could muster only one game above .500 (41-40) on the road.

Looking at the series from a top down view, it's pretty hard to suggest either team has a substantial advantage. With the extra days rest, it's worth wondering whether or not the Mets bats will have cooled some. The Royals have to wonder what Johnny Cueto will show up. Both teams will be looking to steal at least one contest on the road (I don't see this going seven). By almost any measurement, this season's fall classic looks to be very even.

With that all in mind, give me the American League and AL Central Kansas City Royals. While there's no doubt the Mets pitching is going to be tough to beat up, Kansas City is a year removed from being in this same spot. Knowing the agony of defeat, you can bet the group composed of much of the same players will be looking to taste victory this time around. We're in for a good one, but Kansas City wins their first World Series since 1985 by a series tally of 4-2.

Pitching As A Relative Strength

Although more often than not I put some thought into a topic before putting together a full fledged post, sometimes the topic just happens. This afternoon, a follower on Twitter posed a very interesting question. He asked, "Where do you see the Twins rotation amongst the AL Central competition." As recently as last season, it would be easy to quickly dismiss the thought and suggest they are dead last. Heading into 2015 however, it's not quite as easy.

To understand the foundation the Twins stand on, we probably first need to comprehend what they are up against. Going in order of how I see the AL Central shaking out, let's take a look.

Detroit Tigers

I still hate the idea that the Tigers could win the AL Central, but looking at the White Sox and Indians, the Tigers still are where I lean. Although the Detroit offense should be impressive if it can stay healthy, this rotation is not at all at the same level as 2014. I'm not going to claim to know the order of any of these other rotations, but here is likely how the Tigers go:

1. David Price
2. Anibal Sanchez
3. Justin Verlander (skipped while on DL)
4. Shane Greene
5. Alfredo Simon

Last season, Price came over from the Rays and was welcomed rather uncomfortably. Sure, he posted a 3.26 ERA, but he also gave up more than four runs four different times in just 11 starts. There's no doubt he's deserving of the looming extension (and after losing Max Scherzer Detroit has to pay the man), but I'm not sure that brighter days are ahead. Anibal Sanchez is a constant injury risk, and while on he's great, the Tigers simply shouldn't rely on him at this point.

I was of the belief that Verlander would bounce back this season, but he's showing signs of age before the season even gets going. I like Greene's upside, but there's still plenty for him to prove. Rounding out the rotation, a 33 year old Simon got paid off of his first year starting since 2011. His 4.33 FIP (fielding independent pitching) last season causes some real reason for concern.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are going to need their offense to show up, and I think it will. Their rotation has plenty of power at the top, but there's a significant cliff at the end. Here's who should be included:

1. Chris Sale (beginning on the DL)
2. Jeff Samardzija
3. Jose Quintana
4. John Danks
5. Hector Noesi

Sale and Samardzija are both quality pitchers and the White Sox should be fine there. Samardzija passed his regression test with Oakland (3.14 ERA in 16 starts) and should be counted on to continue the trend. From there however, things get uncertain.

I like Quintana and think he can is a quality major league starter. He's young and he should only get better, if not for the next two, this is my favorite rotation in the Central. John Danks is rough, and as a 4th option even worse. He's getting paid, and the White Sox didn't want to go with the youngster Carlos Rodon yet. That will hurt them. Noesi is a back end of the rotation guy and is prone to blowups. He doesn't strike many out and doesn't miss enough bats. Knowing that Brad Penny is the option behind him, the White Sox are in trouble if they need to start shuffling.

Cleveland Indians

If you love the Indians to be a dark horse in the Central, and even the American League this year (and plenty do), it begins and ends with their rotation. Offensively, the Tribe should score, but they will need to be banking on the return of Kipnis and Swisher, while hoping that Moss and Brantley continue to perform. The biggest reason I dislike the Indians as a trendy team is that I don't buy their rotation:

1. Corey Kluber
2. Carlos Carrasco
3. Trevor Bauer
4. Zach McAllister
5. TJ House

Kluber is the reigning Cy Young. He's a stud, nothing to see there. The Indians will then give the ball to Carrasco, who's started just 54 games in his five year major league career. Last year he owned a 2.55 ERA but made only 14 starts. He had a 2.44 FIP a season ago, yet he had never posted a mark better than 4.10 previously in his career. Carrasco has also never thrown more than 134 innings in a season. It's too small of a sample size, and I just can't get on board.

I like Bauer more than most, but the former top prospect is much to uncertain to rely on. He'll be lights out one night, and a walk machine the next. McAllister and House rounding out the group shouldn't excite anyone. Blame some poor defense (3.45 FIP/5.23 ERA) but McAllister didn't prove anything a year ago. House has a good deal of upside and should be expected to take steps forward, but his 3.69 FIP was actually worse than his ERA (3.35) and it will be interesting to see how he competes in his second year in the big leagues.

Kansas City Royals

If the Indians are the trendy pick, the Royals are anything but. I have them finishing at the bottom of the division and I just don't like their offseason at all. It's not that losing James Shields was detrimental, but the pieces they brought in as replacements should cause skepticism. Here is how the rotation should look:

1. Yordano Ventura
2. Danny Duffy
3. Edinson Volquez
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jeremy Guthrie

First, yuck. Second, the Royals rotation was recently ranked as one of the worst in the major leagues, and it's with good reason. Ventura may very well be a Cy Young candidate, but the cliff begins after him. Danny Duffy should be expected to provide quality again for Kansas City, but a 3.83 FIP and a 2.53 ERA suggest his surroundings were a large part of the reason for his success. Edinson Volquez coming over from Pittsburgh could get ugly quick. He owns a 4.44 career ERA with all but three seasons coming in the National League. He's posted an FIP under 4.00 only once, and that was size years ago.

Both Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie are on the wrong side of 30, with the former likely staring an ERA near 5.00 in the face. The fact that Joe Blanton believes he can crack this group on the back end is probably telling in and of itself.

Minnesota Twins

This brings us to the Twins (no I don't have them finishing last). While Minnesota's offense was in the top ten in runs scored a season ago, it didn't matter with the rotation bleeding runs. It's quite conceivable that the bullpen will be the culprit this season, but the rotation should have far more questions than answers. It's slated to look like this:

1. Phil Hughes
2. Ervin Santana
3. Ricky Nolasco
4. Kyle Gibson
5. Tommy Milone

Hughes was lights out last season, but for the most part, that could have been expected. His FIP (2.65) improved as it should have leaving Yankee Stadium. Although the outfield defense is expected to get worse, Hughes doesn't have to prevent a record amount of walks to improve. His 3.52 ERA leaves room to get lower, and he should once again be considered a staff ace.

Of the group, Santana may actually be the wild card. While I'm excited by the signing, I noted that Santana actually concerns me a decent amount this year. The Twins need him to be good, and better than his trends suggest. Nolasco was billed as an innings eater and an ace when signed last offseason. that was a mistake by the Twins, and only compounded by the former Marlin pitching through injury. He's never going to be a top of the rotation guy, but an ERA right around 4.00 and a quality third starter should be expected.

Gibson likely stands to take the biggest step forward this year. Settled into a guaranteed rotation spot, and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Minnesota should expect more from their former first round pick. He's never going to strike a lot of guys out, but getting his K/9 up around 7.0 is fair and something that should lower his ERA into the high three range.

The fifth spot is likely going to be the most fluid for the Twins. Milone isn't exciting, but you know what you're going to get. His 4.21 FIP average isn't going to be conducive to a low ERA, but Target Field should aid him just like the Coliseum. Healthy this season, he can give the Twins innings at a 4.10 clip until Alex Meyer or Trevor May is ready.

While this became extremely long winded, I hope the point got across. There is no clear cut favorite when it comes to rotations in the AL Central. At the end of the day, the top dogs have more questions than answers on the back end. The Twins may not have the top tier aces, but they probably have more reliable quality throughout. Minnesota is not yet in a position to consider the rotation a strength, but if the Twins are going to shock some people, it will come on the backs of their starting pitchers hovering around their perceived potential.

AL Central Division Preview

Last season, the AL Central was dominated by two teams for the majority of the season. With their overpowering starting pitching, the Detroit Tigers laid waste to their divisional foes. Hanging near the top with them was the Kansas City Royals. A late season push closed the gap, and had the Royals in possession of the division lead for a time as well. Although the Cleveland Indians finished just five games out, they weren't seen as a threat for much of the year. As 2015 comes around, expect the script to be flipped on its head.

A year ago, the Tigers took home first place in the division winning 90 games. The Royals boasted an impressive 89 wins on their own, while both the White Sox and Twins hovered around the 90 loss mark. This season, I think it's fair to expect 90 is not a number seen on either side of the equation. Looking at the AL Central, I think the division winner will clock in somewhere around 85 wins, with the worst team in the division having around 85 losses. If that holds true, there's no doubt that the Central will be one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball.

Now getting into specifics, let's break it down from first to worst.

1. Detroit Tigers (85-77)

Full disclosure, this is not at all a ringing endorsement of the Tigers. Detroit has one of the worst bullpens in all of the major leagues, and it would be crazy not to believe that it's going to cost them at some point. Joe Nathan is only getting worse, and those in front of him struggle to hold leads on their own. That all being said, the offense still should remain one of the best in baseball. If Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera can hold up over the course of the season (those are big ifs), the Tigers should be just fine. Expect Brad Ausmus to get just enough out of his squad, even when he may have to piece things together.

2. Chicago White Sox (83-79)

A season ago, the White Sox lost Avisail Garcia before things even got going. While not a major cog in their lineup, he still represents a valuable piece of the offense. With Chris Sale being on the shelf to start 2015, the White Sox are going to have to rely on their new acquisition in Jeff Samardzija, and the young arms to bolster their rotation. Expecting Jose Abreu to follow up his impressive Rookie of the Year campaign shouldn't be too lofty, and the addition of Melky Cabrera is another offensive boost. The White Sox should have plenty of pop in their lineup to score runs, and if they can get strong pitching out of young arms once again, they'll be in a good place. Expect David Roberston to hold onto wins with a much stronger grip than Ronald Belisario did a season ago.

3. Cleveland Indians (81-81)

At this point, I'm still not a believer in the Indians and think the expectation could even be a little high. I very well could see them finishing fourth in the division with a sub .500 record instead. Corey Kluber is a stud, and should be again in 2015, but behind him Cleveland has plenty of questions. T.J. House and Carlos Carrasco are still relatively unproven, and you never know what you'll get with Trevor Bauer. Brandon Moss will add pop to the lineup, but expecting Michael Brantley to repeat his 2014 seems like a long shot. I think a lot of the Indians success hinges on whether or not Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis can offer anything offensively to the club.

4. Minnesota Twins (79-83)

Probably a best case scenario, the Twins will have to have almost everything break correctly to win 82 games. There's no doubt that the pitching staff is better, and the offense is already there. Outfield defense is probably going to be an issue, but to the extent it is being billed is somewhat overblown. Expect Torii Hunter to provide plenty of value with his bat (maybe even moreso than his mentorship) and expect Minnesota to have a handful of homerun hitters fill the lineup. As always, the Twins will live and die with their pitching, and this year they should see plenty more positive than negative from it. As prospects head to Target Field, 2015 should provide chances for them to help a fighting club instead of just a cup of coffee.

5.  Kansas City Royals (77-85)

A year after falling short in the World Series, the Royals are looking up an extreme hill to make it back. While I don't think losing James Shields was the end of the world, replacing him with Edinson Volquez may be. Yordano Ventura is still very young to put such an importance on, and the back end of the Royals rotation could be ugly. The bullpen is going to shine, but regression over time should probably be somewhat expected. On the offensive side, adding Alex Rios and Kendrys Morales may actually be a net loss, and the Royals are going to need to score for their pitchers sake. There is no doubt that the defense, specifically in the outfield, is going to be spectacular. The problem for the Royals is that Jarrod Dyson and Lorenzo Cain both can't play at the same time.

AL Central baseball is no doubt going to be amongst the best in the big leagues this season. The division from top to bottom should be competitive, and expecting someone to run away with it shouldn't be counted upon. Gear up, we're in for a fun ride.