Closers By Creation, Twins Making It Work

Rewind back a few years and the Minnesota Twins knew who would be getting the ball in the 9th inning. For a long time, the answer was Eddie Guardado. The man nicknamed "Every Day" passed the torch to Joe Nathan, and it was then turned over to Minnesota native Glen Perkins. In recent years though, Minnesota has needed to get more creative. As they have done so though, it seems they've consistently created closers out of thin air.

In 2015, Kevin Jepsen was Minnesota's answer to Perkins breaking down. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, he racked up 15 saves despite having just five across 315 appearances to that point. Then again, a year later, Brandon Kintzler emerged. The long time Brewers veteran picked up his first save since minor league ball, and he would go on to run off 44 more up until July 2017. Over the course of three years, Minnesota had consistently created closers out of thin air.

Should this tell us anything, it's likely that the narrative be closers are overvalued, and underutilized. The save is a statistic that places more importance on the 9th inning of a ball game, despite their being no evidence that it actually is. Sure, the game comes to a close when a team is winning after the 9th, but the game likely was decided long before that. In having a pitcher designated to get the final three outs, one of your best relievers may have missed the opportunity to get a much more important trio of outs earlier in the contest.

It really doesn't matter whether or not a big league team has a "Proven Closer," and holds even less importance for a team not destined for the Postseason. That being said, the Twins appear on a path to again create an asset and this time it's in the form of Matt Belisle. The question is, are the pieces there to make it work?

Unlike Kintzler before him, Belisle is not a groundball machine, and he tends to miss some bats. The former throws harder than the latter however, and they both leave something to be desired in a high leverage situation. For Belisle though, there's a few things working in his favor.

During 2017, Matt Belisle has racked up strikeouts at a 7.5 K/9 clip. That mark is his best total since 2013, and the third highest total of his career. While he does induce groundballs 43% of the time, Belisle uses a low 90's fastball to generate swings and misses over 10% of the time (for just the second season of his career). He's giving up contact at a career low 78% of the time, and balls are being hit hard a respectable 27% of the time.

The beginning of the season didn't go well for the 37 year-old veteran. Through his first 17.2 IP, he owned an ugly 8.66 ERA and was allowing opposing hitters to post an .833 OPS. His last 27.0 IP however have been a different story. He's posted a 1.67 ERA and opposing batters have posted just a .598 OPS. Suggesting it's been a tale of two seasons is more than fair.

Down the stretch, the Twins will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Having been sellers at the deadline, they realize the uphill battle doesn't seem in their favor. With such an ugly run differential, regression should be expected to hit hard. However, with 52 games remaining as of August 8, the club has exactly half of those contests against teams with sub .500 records.

As the summer turns into fall, Matt Belisle should be expected to get most of the Twins save opportunities. He's absolutely the veteran candidate that manager Paul Molitor falls in love with. In closing out games, Belisle is hardly a worse option than either of the previous two created closers. Whether or not anything more than a handful of saves comes out of his work in the 9th remains to be seen, but for now the Twins have again created from within.

Kevin Jepsen Off The Rails

The Twins bullpen has been a problem area in the early going this season, and despite being left largely unaddressed this offseason, I expected the minor moves to make some difference. In short, some aspects have played out as expected. Fernando Abad has been about as good as I assumed, and Casey Fien has struggled along the lines I pictured. A guy I worried about though, was Kevin Jepsen, and that's been a bigger issue.

Jepsen appeared a very large regression candidate coming into the 2016 season. After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA for the Twins along with a 2.56 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was right near his career average, and his 2.3 BB/9 were the best result of his career. Having never seen significant time as a closer previously, he grabbed 10 saves for Minnesota as a replacement for the injured Glen Perkins.

It all added up to a situation that just seemed too good to play out again.

Now around 20 games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the wheels have essentially fallen off for Jepsen. He owns a 4.15 ERA which probably doesn't highlight how poor he's been. His 7.3 K/9 is fine, but he's striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, the worst mark of his career. He's blown three saves, and has converted just two on the season. Now matter how you break it down, he's far from anything certain in a closer role.

There's a couple of things Jepsen seems to be doing differently early on for the Twins. He's relied on his fastball nearly 75% of the time this season (nearly a 10% bump from 2015), and has all but abandoned his changeup (using it just 2.7% of the time). Combining the usage with the fact that his 94 mph velocity on his fastball is the lowest of his career, it's resulted in less than ideal output.

On top of that, the effectiveness of Jepsen's pitches seems to have waned as well. In 2016, he's gotten batters to chase ptiches out of the zone just 24.1% of the time (lowest mark of his career) and well as generating swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time (lowest mark since 2013). When he throws a ball in the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact a ridiculous 92.2% of the time (also the worst mark of his career).

Right now, Jepsen's problems are a perfect storm. He's not executing his pitches, and when he is, they simply aren't very good. He's not fooling hitters, and he's generally dancing around trouble rather than attacking and avoiding it. The sum of all parts suggests the regression I expect to set in, but I really didn't see it coming this quickly.

It's more than fair to attribute some of Jepsen's problems to the role he is being forced to play. Thanks to Glen Perkins binding the Twins with a week one DL stay, the former Rays reliever is pitching in a high leverage closer role he has no business occupying. In a pinch, as was the case in 2015, the situation may work for a brief period of time. As a shut down late inning reliever, you'd expect a ballclub to do better than Jepsen however.

For now, it sounds like manager Paul Molitor has issued a vote of confidence to his 9th inning arm. I'd hope the leash isn't too much longer, as the Twins can't continue to cough up leads and are already scarping for every W tally they can get. At some point, it might make sense to give Trevor May a shot, or even call on one of either J.T. Chargois or Nick Burdi to assume the role. The latter two are more drastic measures, while the former is worth a try.

Regardless of what eventually takes place, the path and process Kevin Jepsen is currently travelling down and executing upon can't continue to happen.

Twins Problems Are All Of Them

Here we sit, right around the end of the first month of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and the Minnesota Twins find themselves as cellar dwellers. Not only are they dead last in the AL Central, but they've found themselves there on account of everything going wrong, at almost always the right moments.

Coming off a season in which they weren't technically eliminated from playoff contention until the final week of the season, the Twins had high hopes for the year ahead. Instead of capitalizing on that in the early going, they've taken multiple steps backwards. A roster with youth, there's been odd decisions, the bullpen has been up and down, and the offense has been near non-existent. What it's really added up to is the Twins having as many problems as they could have possibly envisioned.

First and foremost is the offense. With a lineup that was rounded out using big bats, Paul Molitor's club was expected to hit balls over the fence. A realistic chance for 200 on the season, they appear destined to finish nowhere near that mark. Just 17 to date, the Twins aren't remotely close to where good home run hitting teams have been in previous seasons.

I've done (I believe) a very consistent job of keeping track of what I've coined the Twins Power Index. In measuring strikeouts, as they relate to home runs, Minnesota has often been left empty handed. Striking out per game, more than any other team in baseball not named the Houston Astros, the Twins home run totals have lagged behind. Only a couple of guys are seeing above an acceptable amount of pitches per strikeout, and the problem as a whole hasn't gotten better.

Against the Washington Nationals in D.C. Mollie's club struck out a ridiculous 38 times over the course of two games. I saw a Twins writer or two caution that the way of the K had fallen by the wayside as, they "hardly struck out at all over the last week," and that "the sky's not falling." In a vacuum, that's probably a true sentiment, but considering the power production expected to compliment those strikeouts has not change, the problem is only looming larger.

Then, because of the lack of offense, the Twins have done nothing for what has been a respectable (maybe a little less) pitching staff. In 19 games, Neil Allen's starters have thrown nine quality starts. Of those games, only three of them have been won by the Twins. In six of nine quality starts, Minnesota failed to score more than what amounts to no more than three runs over the course of six innings.

When Minnesota is scoring, they aren't holding leads either. Forget about Glen Perkins who's on the DL after a week one injury. Kevin Jepsen has looked every bit the regression candidate he was poised to be, and despite some decent outings from Trevor May, his command and prowess on the mound has eluded him almost an equal amount. The bullpen was positioned to be improved, if not avoid being a liability once again, should everything break right. Unfortunately, nothing has gone that way for Minnesota.

Rounding out the group of unfortunate-isms (sure, we'll go with it), is the direction this team has seemed to take through it all. With a roster probably one year ahead of real playoff contention, the youth was going to both sink and swim. What has happened however, is confusing roster moves that don't seem to mesh with each other whatsoever.

Early on in 2016, top prospect Max Kepler was given the call to Minnesota. He started just two of 13 games at one point with the Twins, and was given no regular time. The bulk of that was while Byron Buxton was struggling, and Eddie Rosario could get nothing going. Not only was his development being stunted by not playing, but Molitor had no better clue as to what he was capable of at this level.

It took nearly moving a mountain to get Oswaldo Arcia to draw some significant starts, and now the club appears to have opened a 40 man roster spot (and depleting a realistic third catcher in the process) for aging veteran David Murphy. Unlike Kepler, Arcia, or any host of other young players, there's no hurt to having Murphy come up and sit. In needing to sign a veteran retread just to get the oomph to make a roster move though, Terry Ryan should expect to face disdain.

UPDATE: Per Mike Berardino, the Twins did in fact open up the 40 man spot to call up David Murphy. They lost John Hicks in doing so, and Murphy walked away from the organization presumably to retire. That sequence as a whole is a massive dumpster fire and highlights a really poor lack of planning.

At the end of the day, it won't matter whether Jose Berrios joins the rotation, Buxton gets it going in Triple-A, or some combination of Alex Meyer and J.T. Chargois bolster the big league pen. Right now, the Twins are doing everything wrong between the lines, and the stuff taking place outside of them is following suit.

Shuffling Twins For Success

To say the 2016 Major League Baseball season has gotten off to less than an ideal start for the Minnesota Twins is a understatement. Despite the possibility for a handful of losses to be overstated, there's no doubt that the Twins futility isn't a good thing. With an offense that has perfected striking out, and a bullpen that has scuffled early, Paul Molitor may not be too far off from making some changes.

One of the most obvious changes could be in relation to uber prospect Byron Buxton. Having won the starting centerfield job out of spring training, Minnesota was no doubt looking for a better showing than his first taste of big league action. So far that hasn't been the case, as Buxton is batting .182/.182/.273 through his first 22 at bats. What's interesting though is that there's a path in which this narrative has played out before.

Buxton is often mentioned in connection with Angels star Mike Trout. Both had the pedigree of being top prospects, and the hope is that the former turns early big league struggles into long term success like the latter. After struggling in his first taste of MLB action, Trout went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year in his true rookie season. The overlooked part is how Trout progressed over that Rookie of the Year winning campaign.

Unlike Buxton, Trout did not start his first big league season with the Angels. Prior to beginning his record winning journey, he played in 20 Triple-A games. Across that action, Trout slashed .403/.467/.623. He was then called up and went on to hit .182/.250/.227 in his first 22 at bats, a very similar (if not worse) line than Buxton. The biggest discrepancy between how each of them got going is in Buxton's ugly 11/0 K/BB ratio (as opposed to Trout's 5/2 K/BB in his first 22 ABs).

At this point, it's pretty clear that Buxton is working to get his feet wet at the big league level. He's seeing just south of 8 pitches per strikeout and has been scuffling at the plate. To his credit, when he's put the ball in play, he's hit it hard. His at bats haven't been terrible, and they've been visibly better than teammate and outfield partner Eddie Rosario. That said, we may be coming to a crossroads.

Should Buxton continue to struggle to get things going for the next week, decision time may be here. If I'm the Twins, I go ahead and send Buxton back to Triple-A. Getting him down sooner rather than later allows him to get things going, and return in a much more meaningful portion of the season. Allow Buxton, who hit .400/.441/.545 in his first taste of Triple-A, to go grab some confidence and head back to the big leagues in about three weeks.

Should Buxton go down, there will obviously be a ripple effect at the top. The Twins will be short and outfielder and depending on who's called up, the replacement is probably already on the big league roster. Assuming Danny Santana isn't immediately back on his 15th day (which would make the swap for Buxton easier) Molitor should go with Max Kepler. Having been called up, it doesn't serve Kepler to sit and watch. He has the ability to play centerfield, and would then be auditioning for the right to stay up with the Twins. As things stand currently, Kepler should be drawing starts over Rosario, Buxton, and Miguel Sano on a rotating basis, but he could be the guy in center until Buxton returns.

Of course it's not the ideal scenario to have to demote Buxton, what's important though is that it's not a death sentence. For the Twins top prospect, the long term game should be the focus. Getting him right with his bat a level down, will help Minnesota win games at the big league level during the summer months. If Buxton doesn't have a turnaround week, I'd put the plan in action.

The changes probably shouldn't stop with the lineup however. There's also some significant question marks in the bullpen. The trio of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Casey Fien have been unquestionably poor to start the 2016 campaign. If there's a guy feeling the most pressure, it should be the veteran Fien.

Having been gifted a roster spot through an arbitration contract, Fien has turned in a 16.88 ERA with 2 BB in his first 2.2 IP. Getting hit hard, to the tune of seven hits already, Fien has looked extremely ineffective. The most logical move for Fien may be in calling up Alex Meyer.

Yes, Meyer is working out of the Rochester rotation, but it still stands to reason that he makes the Twins this year through the bullpen. He's not ahead of Jose Berrios or Tyler Duffey for starting jobs, and his stuff should play up even better in relief. Taking over for Fien, Meyer can slide into a low-leverage scenario and take his time acclimating to the new level. He was great in his debut outing of 2016, and finished 2015 owning a 0.46 ERA across his final 19.2 IP. There's little room to suggest Meyer would be anything but an upgrade in relief for Minnesota.

As far as the back end of the pen guys, Jepsen and Perkins, a swap is a bit less clear. The former is a major regression candidate for this season, while the latter appears to have fallen off a cliff. Regardless, neither of them is being sent anywhere but the DL should a move be deemed warranted. Perkins has looked ineffective and displayed declining velocity for the last half of 2015, and to start the 2016 campaign. If you're looking for a replacement, J.T. Chargois may hear the call from Double-A Chattanooga.

Chargois has struck out five batters en route to recording his first six outs. He's right there with Nick Burdi in regards to top tier relief talent, and already being on the 40 man roster makes it a smooth transition. Again, getting Chargois up is a tricky maneuver with how you'd need to shuffle some established vets. That said, the relief options are plentiful for Minnesota.

With an early season stumble such as the Twins have had, you'd hate to start making unwarranted wholesale changes. However, you need to do something in order to create a spark, and for a couple different players, a momentary change of scenery could produce benefits throughout the summer. Sure it's unfortunate that Buxton hasn't taken off, or that the pen may have scuffled, but the net result could be the best possible outcome.

Out Of Proportion, But In Focus: The Twins Bullpen

Waiting months for Opening Day to come, only to have it pass as the nine innings unfold, should help remind us as baseball fans to keep things in perspective. I wrote recently about the importance of Opening Day, and the relative lack thereof. It's a celebration of what is to come, but as a baseball fan, we are locked in for the long haul over the next seven months. There were a couple of key things that can be drawn from what the Twins underwent to open their season however.

Over the course of the offseason, the bullpen has been the largest point of contention. After being the worst in the big leagues a season ago by multiple different metrics, it was going to need to be vastly improved for this club to stave off regression. Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan seemed to bank on internal options for the 2016 season, and with a deep farm system, it's hard to blame them. That said, there was still three main points that detractors focused in on.

First, the closer. Glen Perkins has been an All Star in two consecutive seasons, but has broken down as the season turns over to its second half. I touched on what Perkins should be this year, and I believe the concern for him is overblown. Let's move past that part.

The second arm causing some pause is also a part of the back three relievers that were considered locks this spring. Kevin Jepsen's acquisition last season will go down as one of Terry Ryan's best trades. Behind only the brilliance that was finagling Tommy Milone away from the Athletics, Jepsen resembled a move the Twins needed. He went on to have a career year for Minnesota, and filled in the closer role in Perkins' absence.

It's that career year though that makes 2016 somewhat uncertain. With the Twins, Jepsen posted his best ever ERA (1.61), while striking out eight per nine innings, and owning a sub 3.00 FIP for just the third time in his nine year career. Having never totaled a sub 2.00 ERA previously, it was pretty apparent that the performance was going to be difficult to repeat.

Things started out on the wrong foot in 2016 for Jepsen as he took the Twins first loss, and his shaky performance was to blame. Generating two quick outs, the former Rays reliever then walked a batter and gave up two consecutive singles to allow the walk of run. What;s worth noting, is this narrative could play out similar to one Twins fans have seen before.

Upon joining the Twins a season ago, Kevin Jepsen was tagged for two earned runs in his first game while recording just one out. He took the loss as the Twins fell 4-1 to the Seattle Mariners. From there however, he gave up runs in just two of his final 28 outings. Posting a 0.98 ERA across 27.2 IP, opposing batters slashed just .178/.217/.218 off of him.

By all statistical measures, his immediate blip for the Twins was followed by dominance. A sever candidate for regression this season, Jepsen will need to do his best impression of his former self. The Opening Day blunder could definitely be a precursor to future dominance, but for a guy that is looking to be a cornerstone of the Twins relief corps, he'll be battling against himself the rest of the way.

Now, both of the former two pitchers are more cautionary tales than legitimate concerns. Unfortunately, the third pitcher doesn't have that luxury. Enter Casey Fien.

Arbitration eligible with Minnesota this offseason, the Twins awarded Fien a $2.275 million contract. While the money is negligible, the move immediately draw ire from myself as his roster spot became all but guaranteed. The problem with that, is Fien is far from the best internal option for Neil Allen and Molitor to run out in a relief situation, and taking a spot from a more capable arm seemed counter productive for a team trying to revamp its pen.

Despite owning a 3.55 ERA and being mediocre at best in 2015, you'll hear that Fien was better down the stretch. There's some truth to that. In Fien's first 31 games in 2015, he owned a 4.60 ERA while allowing a .270/.285/.437 slash line to hitters. In the final 31 games of his season, Fien turned in a 2.53 ERA while limiting hitters to a much better .229/.256/.314 line. What the numbers don't show is that Fien's production still came largely as smoke and mirrors. Minnesota owned the worst bullpen strikeout percentage in the big leagues a season ago (6.85 K/9), and in those final 31 games Fien (who was "good") posted a 6.75 K/9.

Therein lies the problem that is Casey Fien. Over the past three years, Fien's strikeouts per nine innings have declined each season. Topping out at 10.6 in 2013, they dipped to 7.2 in 2014, and were a horrible 5.8 a season ago. It's worth noting that Fien doesn't walk anyone (1.7 BB/9 career), but his troublesome strikeout rate is at the root of the Twins relief issues.

In 2015, Fien generated swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time, his lowest mark since 2010. Opposing hitters were able to make contact with his pitches over 83% of the time, also the worst mark since 2010. On top of allowing the ball to be put in play, Fien wasn't just generating soft contact. In fact, his pitches were hit with medium or hard contact 83.2% of the time, again a career worst since the 2012 season.

What it breaks down to is Casey Fien being the exact type of pitcher the Twins should have avoided putting in their pen. He's a reliever that strikes no one out, gives up way too many hard hit balls, and does nothing to push a bad bullpen forward. In rewarding him with an arbitration deal, Fien was the choice over the likes of J.R. Graham, Taylor Rogers. Logan Darnell, Nick Burdi, Brandon Kintzler or maybe some other external option.

Of course one game is far too early to start cherry picking as to what the rest of the season holds. That being said, Fien allowing four hits and surrendering two runs while recording just two outs very well could be a precursor of things to come.

The Twins bullpen should be much better than billed. Ryan Pressly is a weapon, Trevor May could be elite, and Fernando Abad appears to be a nice pickup. All of those things can remain true though, while Fien remains a dumpster fire, and we're going to eventually find out what's down that rabbit hole.

Making The Twins Bullpen Great

 

A year ago, the state of the Minnesota Twins bullpen was far from a good place. Going into the season, the front office made sure to let media members know they were off base, and that the relief pitching was in a good place. As the season wore on, that ended up being quite off base, and remains a point of contention heading into 2016. Looking at the Twins current 40 man roster, what does the Twins best bullpen look like?

There's a couple of caveats here that need to be dealt with before diving in. Although the 40 man roster currently sits at full capacity, the Twins would have some serious questions to answer if moves were not still made. There's a couple of different players that could be removed, and there's definitely free agents that could help this team out.

In looking at the bullpen specifically, there are also a couple of contributors both within and outside of the organization that make sense. Guys like Jake Reed and Nick Burdi would make the Twins pen better when they arrive, but shouldn't be counted on from the get go. I'm not sold on the idea that Neal Cotts improves the Twins relief corps, but while still on the market, there's some mutual interest in making a return to Minnesota.

Focusing in on what's immediately available to Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan, the configuration should look something like this:

Ryan Pressly- RHP

The former Rule 5 pick has been a solid contributor for the Twins, unfortunately in 2015, he spent a majority of the year on the disabled list. When he did pitch however, he gave the Twins 27.2 innings and owned a 7.2 K/9 mark. Pressly posted a career best 2.84 FIP and tallied just a 2.93 ERA. His 3.9 BB/9 rate was the worst of his career, and the hope would be he could get back towards 2014's 2.5 BB/9 number. Pressly is far from a sure thing, and he's probably a placeholder for a guy like Reed or Burdi, but you could do a lot worse out of the gate.

Logan Darnell- LHP

The first lefty of the group, Darnell slides into what was once a role Brian Duensing held onto. More than just a lefty specialist, Darnell has the ability to eat innings and can do so at a competitive level. He ended 2015 working as a starter for Triple-Rochester. In his five starts, he posted a 0.83 ERA .185/.228/.210 slash line against, and a 7.83 K/9. He didn't appear for the Twins due to sickness following his September call, but expect him to get a crack out of Spring Training.

Michael Tonkin- RHP

Much like Darnell, Tonkin has not been given much extended run at the big league level despite minor league success. He was up and down too often a season ago, and never got settled at either level. For the Twins, he threw 23.1 innings and compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 7.3 K/9. At Rochester, Tonkin was virtually unhittable owning a 1.10 ERA, 10.1 K/9. and a 1.1 BB/9. Given an extended stay for the Twins, he could become a trustworthy back-end option with the ability to strike out big league sluggers.

Alex Meyer- RHP

After expecting to be a part of the 2015 season, Meyer had his struggles last year. Despite making his major league debut, it was short-lived. As the calendar turns, so does the year that was, and Meyer is poised for a breakout. Now almost certainly destined for the bullpen, Meyer showed some impressive stuff to close out 2015. In his final 10 games, Meyer threw 22.2 innings and owned a 0.79 ERA. Opposing batters slashed just .192/.293/.205 off of him while he owned a 22/10 K/BB ratio. Meyer's controlled improved at the end of the year, and the Twins pen would welcome his career 10.3 K/9 ratio. In the season ahead, it could be Meyer that ends up being the Twins most important rookie.

Trevor May- RHP

Despite what the Twins have said, and likely what May would prefer, starting may not be in the cards out of the gate in 2016. The problem isn't that May is a bad starter (he's actually very good), but instead that the Twins have so much depth there. In pitching May out of the pen, the 5th spot in the rotation can be given to the likes of Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, or even Jose Berrios. As a reliever in 2015, May pitched 34.1 innings owning a 3.15 ERA. His 10.3 K/9 was the best amongst Twins relievers, and his velocity rose as well. May has the makings of a very good pitcher wherever the Twins utilize him, but it would be in their best interest to make that in relief.

Kevin Jepsen- RHP

Tendered a new contract for the upcoming season, Jepsen is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and is set to become a free agent in 2017. After being acquired from the Rays last season, Jepsen was a vital part of the Twins down the stretch. He owned a 1.61 ERA across 28.0 IP. His 8.0 K/9 was plenty respectable, and his 0.893 WHIP allowed him to fill into the closer role admirably. Jepsen should again be counted on to be a key cog in the late innings, and could end up being one of the league's best setup men in the year ahead.

Glen Perkins- LHP

Joining Darnell as the only other lefty in the Twins pen, Perkins had a tale of two seasons in 2015. Prior to making the All Star Game, Perkins collected a Major League leading 28 saves while owning a 1.21 ERA in 37.1 innings of work. He compiled an 8.7 K/9 and .188/.217/.246 slash line against in that period. Then the wheels fell off. Through the rest of the year, Perkins owned a 7.32 ERA, allowed opposing hitters to slash .360/.394/.674 off of him, and had just one more save (4) than blown saves (3). He should be back to full health to start 2016, but he needs to put together a complete season again (something he hasn't done each of the last two years).

Looking at the grouping as a whole, the Twins have a very solid mix of options. Turning to youth with upside as well as rolling out proven veterans, this would seem to be the best constructed Opening Day bullpen that Minnesota has had in quite some time. While I expect there to be at least one move yet to be made, that should only further the overall ability of this group.

In 2015, He's The Most Valuable Twin

While there's a few games left in the Minnesota Twins 2015 campaign, we are now at a point in which we can look back and dissect how we arrived here. To be clear, here is a point that hasn't been reached in four years. It's 81+ wins, a .500+ record, a winning team, and an expectation of positive seasons ahead. Although Paul Molitor has been at the helm, it's been these players that have paved the way.

To quantify a team MVP for the Twins season is a much more difficult task than would be imagined. Considering there has been two lone winning months, and a handful of first or second half type performers, and players that have step up at the most important times, it is far from cut and dry. In an effort to recognize those deemed worthy, a top five seems the most effective route to take. Don't worry though, number one will get his due.

5. Kevin Jepsen

Somewhat of an interesting inclusion no doubt, but knowing where the Twins are now, they would not be there without the deadline acquisition of the former Rays reliever. Since joining the Twins, Jepsen has pitched in 27 games, owns a 1.73 ERA and a 2.68 FIP. He's struck out 8.0 batters per nine innings, and he's saved nine games for the Twins.

Glen Perkins had an amazing first half for the Twins, but he's been non-existent down the stretch. Jepsen came over in hopes of bridging to Perkins, but has instead shouldered the entire load on his own. Taking on the closer role, it has been Jepsen that has helped to save the bullpen from the train wreck it had become.

4. Eduardo Escobar

Before the season began, it looked as though Danny Santana was the deserving recipient of the starting shortstop gig. Forget the fact that regression was going to set in, Escobar seemed best suited to a utility role. 122 games of production later, Escobar owns a .759 OPS, has launched a career high 12 home runs, and has compiled a 1.3 fWAR making any notions of a Troy Tulowitzki trade seem silly.

With the Twins having more questions than answers at shortstop during points throughout 2015, Escobar has inserted himself into the heart of the discussion. He looks capable of holding down the gig going forward, and his late season surge has helped to keep the Twins on track in the midst of a Wild Card chase.

3. Miguel Sano

Given just under half a season to make a big league impact, Sano has done just that. In his time with the Twins, he has hit 17 home runs, the same amount of doubles, 51 runs batted in, batted .275, and compiled a .935 OPS. Forget the fact that he strikes out at an astronomical rate, his 45.6 hard hit rate is among the best in baseball, and he has tormented big league pitchers to the tune of a 2.1 fWAR earned solely at the plate.

Sano's full season numbers would likely have him in the league MVP discussion as much as they would have him running away with it for the Twins. Just 22 years old, he has entrenched himself as a cornerstone of the future, and 2015 was able to provide just a small glimpse of what is to come.

2. Trevor Plouffe

The Twins third basemen has followed up a breakout 2014 campaign with more of the same. After looking like a solid third base option a year ago, Plouffe has continued to do it on both sides of the game once again. His 22 homers are just two away from a career best, and his 84 runs batted in are a new career high. He also has set career bests in games played, runs, hits, and triples this season. On the defensive side, he's played as a league average fielder, and remains vastly improved over the shell of a hot corner defender that he was just a few years ago.

As I've continued to suggest all season, Plouffe should (and likely will) remain in the Twins plans going forward. An extension seems better served than a trade, and enjoying his late-blooming prime in a Twins uniform is something Paul Molitor could likely get used to.

1. Brian Dozier

In the first half of 2015, Brian Dozier looked every bit the frontrunner for the American League MVP. After his first All Star Game appearance, that narrative has changed, but his importance to the Twins has not. Pacing the club with a 3.8 fWAR, Dozier has produced across the board. The 28 year-old has set new career highs in hits, doubles, home runs, runs batted in, slugging percentage, and OPS. In year one of the new deal, he's given Minnesota every bit of value out of his 4 year, $20 million extension.

No doubt, Dozier's second half struggles have once again been a disappointment to what otherwise was trending towards a remarkable season. However, in 2015, the power numbers have kept up, and while it's been the strikeouts that have spiked, the greater whole has been something Twins Territory has not seen for far too long. With the addition of youth coming, and Brian Dozier pacing the pack, the Twins are in a good place as they look towards the future.

The Twins Gem In The Pen

In recent seasons, the Minnesota Twins have not been in the best position to make moves at the trade deadline. A winning club for the first time since 2010, Terry Ryan was awarded a new opportunity this season. With a handful of different upgrade possibilities at his disposal, it was the bullpen piece that he acquired making it two straight slam dunk deals for the Twins.

A season after snagging major league quality starter Tommy Milone from the Athletics, Ryan turned his attention to a pitching starved pen. The Twins bullpen had been one of the worst in the big leagues through the first half of 2015, and if the club was even going to sniff a playoff opportunity, finishing games needed to be less stressful.

As the deadline drew to a close, Ryan sent lottery ticket prospect Chih-Wei Hu to the the Tampa Bay Rays for veteran Kevin Jepsen. Despite Hu owning a sub 3.00 ERA for the Fort Myers Miracle, he was a fringe prospect that Minnesota turned into a major league commodity. Jepsen came to the Twins under a one-year, $3.03 million deal and a year of team control in 2016.

Despite a potentially concerning 4.20 FIP for the Rays, and an ugly first outing for the Twins, Jepsen has been everything Minnesota has needed. Since that first blow-up outing, Jepsen has allowed just a single earned run across 18.1 IP. He's given up just nine hits, and five walks, while striking out 17 in that span. Allowing just a .141/.203/.188 slash line against, his 0.49 ERA is dazzling. To say Jepsen has revitalized the Twins bullpen would be an understatement.

Jepsen has also taken aim at some of his own peripherals. The once inflated FIP has settled in at 3.04 with the Twins. He's also hitting the strike zone 64% of the time, compared to 61% while with the Rays. Then there's the added responsibility that the newest Twins reliever has taken on.

Despite Glen Perkins being baseball's best closer through the first half of the season, the second half has been a different story. Marred by injury, Minnesota's 9th inning role was up in the air, until Jepsen stepped in. He's picked up seven saves for the Twins (blowing none). Just one run has crossed in those seven innings, and he's fanned nine while giving up just four hits. Not traditionally a closer (just 12 saves in 7 seasons prior to his time with the Twins), Jepsen has looked every bit the part.

Maybe somewhat poetically, a closer is absolutely what Minnesota and Terry Ryan were hoping for in Jepsen. With a renewed sense of purpose in 2015, a bullpen unable to hold onto leads and close out games wasn't going to get it done. Targeting a low cost option, with future benefit, Jepsen has proved to be an acquisition that Minnesota can look back and smile upon.

Over the course of the season, prolonged strength in relief hasn't been something the Twins could much point to. Aside from Perkins, Trevor May, and times of Blaine Boyer, things have been bleak. When Minnesota needed it most though, they got Kevin Jepsen, and became better for it.

Whether the Twins make the playoffs or not, Jepsen has been a diamond in the rough for Molitor and Neil Allen. He's been at the center of Minnesota's September pursuits, and should be expected to continue that trend into 2016 as well.

The Middle And Its Dangers

It's 2015 and the Minnesota Twins are playing baseball in September. While that happens every season, what doesn't happen often (or at least for the past four seasons), is meaningful September baseball. Paul Molitor's club finds themselves in the thick of a heated Wild Card race with just over a month to play. The unfortunate reality is that Terry Ryan and the Twins brass has decided to toe the middle this season, and it could prove costly.

For whatever it's worth, the Twins were absolutely not supposed to compete in 2015. Another season eyeing 90 losses was more realistic than one nearing 90 wins. Because baseball happens though, Minnesota finds themselves above .500 and in striking distance of a one-game Wild Card playoff.

In order to not sacrifice the future, Minnesota had to navigate their current winning carefully. Having went through four poor seasons, Ryan and the Twins brain trust have built what can be regarded as one of the best farm systems in all of the big leagues. Knowing that the fruits of their labor are ready to overflow and pay dividends, sacrificing them substantially for what has been a surprise season would seem foolish.

Pushing the envelope with the talent on the 2015 roster, the Twins looked to improve without going all in. While the Toronto Blue Jays made deals for players like Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, Minnesota shored up a bad bullpen with Kevin Jepsen. It was a low cost acquisition, that carried future value as well. In the context of the season and organization both now and in the future, it made a lot of sense.

That's where things stop making sense, and the Twins find themselves in dangerous waters.

During the month of August, the Twins made another acquisition. Neal Cotts, a 35-year-old veteran, was acquired from the Brewers as a rental knowing free-agency loomed following 2015. The acquisition cost was minimal for the Twins (cash considerations or a player to be named later), but so was the return. Cotts compiled a 3.26 ERA with the Brewers across 49.2 IP, but a 4.72 FIP (fielding independent pitching) and 3.1 BB/9 loomed ominously.

Regardless of what has or will come to fruition, the move was a sign of the Twins looking to further capitalize on the good fortune of their current Wild Card positioning. Within striking distance, Molitor needed another bullpen arm capable or bridging the gap to his All Star closer. Cotts' rental status made him an intriguing option to go for it in 2015, without sacrificing the future.

Following the two steps forward, the Twins then took two steps back.

With a starting rotation boasting bloated ERA's (Kyle Gibson 6.00 ERA in Aug, Tommy Milone 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts, and Ervin Santana 9.12 ERA in Aug), and injured hurlers (both Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco may not contribute the rest of the way), the Twins decided to ignore a glaring weakness. Not needing to trade for a David Price of their own, or make a significant future deterring move, Minnesota stood pat.

Meanwhile, at Triple-A Rochester, Jose Berrios kept rolling. In front of Terry Ryan, Berrios was lights out. In August, he owned a 2.03 ERA and a 48/3 K/BB ratio across 40.0 IP in which batters hit just .203/.232/.324 against him. Despite the performance to the tune of a 2.67 Triple-A ERA, the Twins looked past their top pitching prospect.

In holding him back, the club doesn't need to answer to service time implications until 2016 at the earliest. In the meantime, they may have cost themselves much more.

Berrios' promotion would have started his service time. In the long run, that could end up costing the Twins a year of team control, forcing them to pay more down the line. However, they also could have maximized both 2015 and 2016 by being savvy with roster control.

By promoting Berrios to the rotation now, the Twins would have immediately had another plus option to help carry them to September. The workload has appeared to be well within the Puerto Rican's wheelhouse, and the output would no doubt benefit the Twins. Following a postseason run, or whatever may have taken place in 2015, Minnesota could have then addressed 2016 in the spring.

Having started the service clock in September, a year of arbitration could have been saved in early 2016. Rather than having Berrios start in the rotation out of spring training (which, judging by the Twins handling of the situation, seems like a long shot regardless), he could have made his 2016 debut in mid-May. In promoting during September 2015, and then May 2016, Berrios's service time implications would be as if he was not promoted this season at all.

Because of handling things how they did, the Twins find themselves right in the middle of an uncertain equation. The playoffs are in the picture right here and now. Terry Ryan got Neal Cotts in a move to help get Minnesota there. Instead of making the internal decision with Berrios for the same reasons, he played the opposite side of the fence. Now the Twins must hope that 2016, and the next few subsequent years after, are as good as they are being perceived. If they aren't or if larger moves need to be made to accomplish a playoff berth (the same goal as 2015), this season could end up being a distant "what if?"

The business side of baseball is definitely one that isn't traveled without navigating murky waters. In a game with so much uncertainty however (again, were the Twins really supposed to be here), tempting fate and betting against the present is a difficult game to play. More often than not, being in the middle isn't going to produce the results to get you to the top.

For now, the Twins will have to live with their decision and wait.

Twins A Rock In A Really Hard Place

It wasn't supposed to go like this, Minnesota was not at all defined as a surprise team in 2015. In a stacked AL Central, it was the Twins who were supposed to be sellers, and once again teeter on the brink of losing 90 games. Fortunately, none of that has played out as expected, but now Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan are faced with some very interesting and tough decisions.

Heading out on an AL East road trip, the Twins had an opportunity to capitalize on the AL Wild Card positioning. Once in firm control of a playoff spot, a surging Blue Jays team made sure to knock the Twins out of contention. With key games ahead though, the Twins had an opportunity to climb right back in it. In a rollercoaster of events, Molitor's club was swept by the Yankees, only to bounce back big and knock off the Orioles in four straight games. It was the roster move over the weekend though that highlights the Twins current predicament.

In dealing either a player to be named later or cash to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins received left-handed pitcher Neal Cotts. After being linked to him during the July 31 trade deadline timeframe, Minnesota acquired the reliever during the August waiver period. Cotts is an impending free agent and owns a 3.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 8.9 K/9. In short, he's nothing spectacular, but is no doubt an upgrade for a lackluster Minnesota bullpen.

The move in and of itself makes sense. Minnesota has struggled with relief pitching all year, and despite Cotts peripherals leaving plenty to be desired (4.71 FIP and 3.1 BB/9), he helps to solidify the issue. What is odd however, is that Cotts comes to the Twins as a rental player. He is 35 years old, and has just two months remaining on his one-year, $3 million deal. That begs the question, what do the Twins see themselves as?

Typically, a rental type player is more of a high profile, high-ceiling type in which a competing team is looking to be somewhat of a final piece. After the Twins added Kevin Jepsen during July's trade period, it seemed as though they were content being in the hunt, but not going for it. Jepsen was acquired with team control going forward, and at a very modest price (High-A reliever Chih-Wei Hu). The two moves in comparison signify very different trains of thought. Even if Cotts ends up netting the Brewers next to nothing, it's the thought process that makes the move puzzling.

With August nearly wrapping up, the Twins will be offering more insight into their direction soon. September signifies the active roster expanding from 25 to 40 players. In doing so, the Twins can add a few key pieces from a loaded farm system in order to help them make somewhat of a final push. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be the course of action however.

Aaron Hicks remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Torii Hunter has hit like an aging 40 year old since the break. The obvious boost would be for the Twins to pull German prospect, Max Kepler, from Double-A Chattanooga. Already a 40 man roster guy, the outfielder owning a slash line of .342/.424/.572 across 97 Double-A games would be an immediate boost. Kepler isn't a top prospect by any means, but he's shot up the national boards with his performance this season.

On the other side of the game, Minnesota is faced with a tougher decision. After deciding to go with a bullpen game earlier in August, the Twins missed a prime window to promote top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. Still dominating (3.12 ERA and 9.5 K/9 at Triple-A), Berrios would be an asset in the Twins rotation. Calling him up in September however would start his service time, and also have 40 man roster implications (Berrios is not currently on the 40 man).

At this point, the Twins are treading water and seemingly waiting for their play to dictate their decision. The practice could pay off, or be to their detriment depending on how you view it. On one hand, the Twins lack of real action (Jepsen was a safe move) at the deadline has contributed to the post All Star Game slide, but on the other hand, the team is still in a significantly better place than expected.

Both the Jepsen and Cotts moves have separate narratives. One suggests a team looking to enjoy a competitive end to the year and be ready for 2016, while the other is surrounded by thoughts of more. Kepler would follow along the path of the safe but effective move, while a Berrios promotion would carry significantly more weight.

Minnesota has a few contests left through the month of August, and if the ball bounces in their favor, it could end up dictating just how the club handles the crossroads it currently finds itself at.