Buxton Extending Into the Future

Over the weekend, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweeted that the Minnesota Twins and star centerfielder Byron Buxton have a mutual interest when it comes to figuring out a long-term extension. Quickly, local names like Mike Berardino and Darren Wolfson noted that while true, that's quite a ways from happening. Although things could come together quickly, it's worth wondering what a deal may look like, and whether or not it makes sense for both sides.

As players like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and some of the other developing youngsters push towards extensions, the Twins crossroads is an interesting one. It's at the end of 2018 that star second basemen Brian Dozier sees his four-year, $20 million extension run out. As John Bonnes from Twins Daily reported last week, the Mississippi native believes he's headed for free agency. Minnesota wasn't able to buy into Dozier's free agency years, and retaining him now would require a new deal to be worked out.

For a player like Buxton, the ideal scenario for the Twins would be to lock him up for a considerable amount of time. Obviously on Byron's end, he'll be foregoing arbitration induced pay raises, and will want to be compensated fairly. At 24 years old, and arbitration eligible for the first time in 2019, the clock is ticking. When looking for some level of comparison, another young outfielder comes to mind.

Enter Mookie Betts.

Although Betts doesn't play centerfield, he's a decent case study when it comes to Buxton. Betts won his second straight Gold Glove for the Red Sox in 2017, and posted his fourth straight season with an OPS north of .800. Across all of baseball, only Betts had more DRS (31) in the outfield than the Twins Buxton (24). The Red Sox right fielder's UZR more than doubled the Twins centerfielder's, and his RngR factor also checked in slightly higher. The breakout was hardly a one year thing either, as Betts posted dazzling digits across multiple defensive metrics in 2016. Even before reaching tallies of 32 and 31 DRS the last two years respectively, Betts owned marks of 5 and 10 in his first two seasons.

On the offensive side of the diamond, there's little argument to be made that Betts hasn't been the far superior player. In his worst season, an .803 OPS still shines amongst an All Star caliber resume, along with a third straight year of MVP votes. For Buxton, the .728 OPS in 2017 showed part of the promise that made him the number on prospect in all of baseball, but it was still an early season swoon that weighed down his overall numbers.

For Buxton to reach the overall impact that Betts has for the Red Sox, Minnesota will need to see a full 162 games worth of the .796 OPS tallied from June 1st through the end of the season. As Buxton legitimately broke down his swing and rebuilt it at the big league level under James Rowson a season ago, it's an expectation that doesn't seem too incredibly lofty. What is an All Star candidate based upon a lackluster OPS and his glove alone, is an MVP threat for multiple years in a row when reaching his peak potential.

So knowing they similarly stack up, Betts is a bit further into the process of being paid. While having not been extended by the Red Sox, he's seen raises from $514.7k to $566k, and then further to $950k a season ago. Being arbitration eligible for the first time this season, Betts' case went to a hearing. The Red Sox offered him $7.5 million, while he believed in being worth more. After having the case heard, the outfielder came out on top and will make $10.5 million in 2018. Over a 10x increase on his 2017 salary, Betts has three more years of arbitration induced salaries before he'll hit free agency.

That $10.5 million Betts was awarded comes in as the second highest salary for a player in their first year of arbitration eligibility, and it was only beaten by Kris Bryant in this same offseason ($10.85m.) It was in this same offseason that Blue Jays third basemen Josh Donaldson set the record for the largest arbitration contract in history, checking in at $23 million. Toronto had worked out a deal to give Donaldson cost certainty each of the past two years with a deal that paid him a total of $28.65 million. Having run out the year before he hits the open market however, the new number is a hefty one.

What the numbers above suggest is that Byron Buxton could have the Twins in a place where they see some really inflated numbers rather quickly. After making $535k in 2017, Buxton's increase is a modest one to $570k. This is the last deal that will be consummated without the intervention of the arbitration system unless a long-term agreement is struck however. If Byron continues to let nothing fall but raindrops, and the bat is in the place it appears to be, the dollar signs should roll in rather quickly. Minnesota could be looking at numbers like $8m, $10m, $12m, and 15m over the course of the next four seasons. Having yet to earn a seven-figure yearly salary, the Georgia native could be staring at the business end of $45 million in a few short years. While that would still pale in comparison to the value he'd bring in that scenario, a more economically focus route could be beneficial for the Twins.

The current front office wasn't in place when Minnesota agreed to keep Brian Dozier around for $20 million over the course of four-years. That being said, this astute collection likely sees the value in a similar cost-certainty model for their superstar centerfielder. Dozier was 28 at the time of his first multi-year deal, while Buxton just turned 24 last December. There's plenty of factors at play, but the numbers seem to suggest that giving up a sense of certainty for a level of security is a good play for both sides.

I'm not entirely sure what the numbers would look like, but something like $30-35 million through four years of arbitration could be a nice get for all parties involved. No matter what the dollars say however, it appears to make sense, for both Buxton and the Twins, to pencil each other into plans for the immediate future.

Byron Buxton, Already A Star?

There's no getting around how bad Byron Buxton was to start off the 2017 Major League Baseball season. Through his first 15 games, he was batting under .100 and owns a 24/2 strikeout to walk ratio. If there was a doomsday scenario, this was it. Given the setback that cause, it's overshadowed just how good he's been of late though, and it's probably better than you'd think.

Since April 21, Buxton has played in 25 games for the Twins. He has had 86 plate appearances and compiled 73 at bats. They've come together to produce a .260/.365/.384 slash line, complete with four extra base hits, and a 23/12 K/BB ratio. For a prospect with otherworldly expectations, that may not seem glamorous, but it is, and he's not done yet.

Despite having the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, I'm not sure Buxton's on base skills will ever translate to hitting out of that lineup position. He's going to hit for more power than his wiry frame may suggest, and batting out of the three hole, as Paul Molitor started him at in 2017, may be a more realistic long-term prognosis. That gives us reason to believe the slugging numbers should go up, further bolstering his OPS production.

While scuffling early on, Buxton had a chase rate of 38.3% and swung through 201.% of pitches. Guessing and rolling over plenty, Buxton made hard contact just 24% of the time through his first 15 games. Since making adjustments over the last 25 games, the Twins centerfielder has dropped the chase rate to 27.8% while swinging through just 13.5% of pitches. The hard contact rate has actually slipped some (21.6%), but Buxton's BABIP is likely always going to be more reflective of his speed than his exit velocity.

You've been handed a few numbers to suggest why Buxton isn't done climbing the ladder yet, but now, it's important to contextualize where he is currently. The question as to what Minnesota needs from him offensively to continue to rely solely on defense, has come up more than a few times. If this latest sample size is any indication, the answer is really nothing. As the numbers indicate right now, this current level of production, has Buxton not only playing at a Gold Glove defensive caliber, but among the best outfielders in the big leagues from an all around standpoint.

Looking at his last 25 games, Buxton has compiled a .748 OPS. On the year, he has also contributed six DRS (defensive runs saved), which by the way, is second among MLB center fielders (thanks to the Rays having a good one in Kevin Kiermaier). Looking at those numbers, we are able to come up with a pretty focused group of big leaguers.

Among qualified hitters, there's just 41 outfielders in baseball with an OPS north of .750. There's also just eight outfielders with a DRS of six or more to this point. Combining those two pools, we see a crossover of just three players (outside of Buxton) that have both a .750+ OPS and have been worth at least six DRS in 2017. There names: Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, and Mookie Betts. That's a trio of players that includes a Rookie of the Year front runner, a solid 10 year vet and one time All Star, and a one time All Star that happened to be last year's runner up in the MVP voting. Any way you cut it, that's a pretty strong group for Buxton to be included in.

Now, as with the 15 games before, a 25 game sample size is hardly anything to begin writing checks off of. What's noteworthy however, is it doesn't just appear to be a hot streak for Buxton, he's made fundamental changes. Having worked with James Rowson and heard from a few others, Buxton's swing is a tighter, more well oiled machine right now. He's got the confidence in the box to let the bat play, and that the ball will carry thanks to the process he's taken prior to contact.

At just 23 years old, Buxton also remains the youngest of that group of aforementioned dual threat talents. His defense is going to remain at an elite level for years to come, and the expectation that the offensive water level raises is a pretty solid one. Each jump the bat makes, will only elevate Buxton as a whole, and even at this early stage, it's easy to see why his ceiling is so high, and excitement level so real.

It's still early for him, but even while still coming into his own, Byron Buxton is among the best dual threat outfielders in all of major league baseball. Imagine what happens as his game continues to evolve.

Why Not Axe The Traditional Bat?

About a week ago, I wrote a piece about baseball embracing a new piece of technology. As hitters have gone up to the plate for the last hundred or so years using a relatively similar form of lumber, the baseball bat has become dated technology. As local journalists around the Twin Cities reported on Kurt Suzuki's adaptation to a new way of hitting, I was interested to learn more.

The previous piece highlighted the bat in which those aforementioned journalists (Cold Omaha and Pioneer Press) dissected Kurt Suzuki's use of. After writing in a broader sense last week about acceptance of the Axe Bat in Major League Baseball, I wanted to know more. Having already talked with Hugh Tompkin's of Baden Sports, I wanted to see first hand what it was that was different about the tool Dustin Pedroia, Kurt Suzuki, and now Mookie Betts were brandishing.

With the M271 Pro Hard Maple Axe Bat in my possession, it was time to go hands on. Obviously I don't have anywhere near the level of baseball skill that professionals using the new product do. I last played competitive baseball as a Freshman in college before heading into 400 meter sprints in track and field. That said, I have played baseball at a relatively high level for the majority of my life, and most importantly, have used more than my fair share of different bats.

Initially taking the Axe Bat to the cage, I wanted to get a feel for what my eyes could already see. The most advantageous piece to the Axe Bat is the handle. Regardless of having a lack of ball tracking ability in a batting cage, feeling the swing, responsiveness of the handle, and difference of the bat as a whole was more than doable. It was in the cage that Tompkins quote to me in my initial story, "We set out to build a better mouse trap," rang true.

The Axe Bat's handle is modeled simply after an axe. With the swinging motion utilized to chop down a tree, the axe handle has less desire to free rotate through your grip. Designed to sit comfortable within the contours of your hand, through the swing plane and into my follow through, the Axe Bat seemed to sit still. It was a smooth cut time in and time out, while allowing my grip to have a place that suggested "home" on the bat.

Having accomplished the initial feel for the new stick in the cage, I took to another test on an actual diamond. Facing batting practice pitching, I'm not sure that I was expecting significantly different results, and that's probably for the best. The Axe Bat isn't a case of a slow pitch or BBCOR bat in which a different level of "pop" is achieved due to the technology. Instead, I was hoping that the same level of results as witness by any other wood bat would be produced. As stated above, what Baden Sports did with the Axe Bat was far from reinventing the wheel; they just made the wheel better.

Going through multiple rounds of batting practice, I couldn't help but think bat to my discussion with Tompkins and Baden PR guy Matt Peterson. In describing the bat making process, both touched on the ability to create a completely customized bat. With their pro players, the hitting zone, sweet spot, and barrel are all calculated based upon swing planes and each player's path to the ball. Because the Axe Bat is cut on a CNC machine, the grain of the wood can then be tailored to make the hitting zone on the bat the most optimum place for the batter to make contact with a pitch.

Surely my bat doesn't have this level of exact specifications tailored to it, but in swinging it repeatedly, it became apparent how beneficial achieving that could be. With the contact point on my Axe Bat remaining relatively similar due to my consistent grip, a small set of tweaks would no doubt heighten the level of personalization that's already achievable simply by keeping a consistent grip.

Now having used the Axe Bat for what's amounted to right around a week and a half, I've been able to put some significant cuts on it. The bat itself has held up to the same degree as any other top of the line wood bat should be expected to, but it's been the one minor difference that keeps resonating with me. The grip, and challenge of the status quo, suggests that this should be the way in which every professional hitter is attacking the game.

At some point, the round knob of a baseball bat became outdated. The technology is over a century old, and until now, no one challenged for a way to do it any better. Since the emergence of Baden Sports' Axe Bat, it's seemingly a disadvantage to continue utilizing something that has been surpassed in relevance. For whatever reason, comfort, consistency, or otherwise, it will take a while for the growth of the Axe Bat to catch fire. Thus far Baden Sports has gone with a completely organic model, and up until the signing of Mookie Betts, they had no endorsers. It's by design though, and that's because the bat speaks for itself.

Sooner or later, more and more big leaguers will have to start wondering why they continue to use round knobbed baseball bats. As they level to the point of answering, "Because we always have," a shift should then take place. The Axe Bat has done more than just create a better mouse trap, it's reinvented the standard at the plate for the game of baseball.