Playoffs And It Feels So Good

In April, no one expected the Minnesota Twins to be here. Even the loftiest of expectations had this club somewhere around 80 wins and simply keeping things interesting. On September 27, 2017 however, the Twins punched their ticket to the Postseason. Reflecting on that, and the season that has been, only invokes a certain level of awe.

Coming off 103 losses, the Twins are the first team ever to go from losing 100 or more games only to make the playoffs the following season. That means, not only did the organization add the number one overall pick in Royce Lewis this year, but they've also played meaningful baseball for the entirety of the schedule. While this group was expected to make waves, the thought was that 2018 looked like the opportune time for the window to open.

Don't tell guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, or Eddie Rosario that they weren't supposed to be here yet however. That trio had went through ups and downs this year, eventually leading to breakout seasons, and ignited the bats on any given night. Joe Mauer wasn't supposed to flash like his old self, and there were questions as to whether or not Brian Dozier would even be in Minnesota this season. Suggesting everything happens for a reason is about as simplistic as it gets. For now though, it works.

On Tuesday October 3, Paul Molitor will field a playoff team for Minnesota. That will be the first time the Twins organization can say that since October 9, 2010. While they'll have a monumental task ahead of them, knocking off the Yankees on the road, the culmination of all the excitement suggest we've made it. The appointment TV, tense at bats, and champagne popping have all been the highlights of the last month or so in Twins Territory.

Count the Twins out against the mighty Yankees if you must, but I can assure you this group doesn't care about narratives. Youth or veterans, these guys could care less about what the Twins of yesteryear carved out. They'll go into New York with more than a fighting chance, and in a one game scenario, anything is bound to happen.

Playoff Season Is Here: So Who Wins?

After 162 games, the Major League Baseball regular season is in the books. We are to the point where this is what every team is playing for throughout the season. October baseball, and a run to the World Series title. While the Twins ended up falling just short, while keeping things interesting in 2015, the field is plenty loaded this season.

Looking at both of the American League and National League sides of things, here's what I have for October baseball:

AL Wild Card

Despite the fade at the end, and the eventual slide out of the AL West lead, the Houston Astros find themselves in the postseason. Taking on the New York Yankees in a one-game winner move on matchup, it's Dallas Keuchel against Masahiro Tanaka.

The Yankees have seemed to hang aroudn for more than I believe they should have most of the season, and Houston's offense should give Tanaka plenty of problems. Forget what Keuchel has done on the road, he's got the upper hand here. Give me Houston over New York.

AL Division Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers

Hard to argue with the best team in baseball post All Star Break. The Blue Jays went for it in grabbing big names at the deadline, and the offense should be plenty to get it done against somewhat of a lackluster Rangers pitching staff. If it isn't, there's always David Price and Marcus Stroman to answer to.

Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros

The Royals faded down the stretch, and that's not the ideal way to close out a regular season. However, there may not be a more complete team in baseball. The Astros get to the division series, but the run ends there. Too much pitching, too good of a defense, and an offense that can get it done. The Royals advance.

AL Championship Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Kansas City Royals

Home field or not, Toronto remains the best team in the big leagues right now. Again, not one-sided, they have enough to get it done both offensively and on the mound. Not the Cinderella the Royals were a season ago, the Blue Jays take their favorite tag and run with it.

NL Wild Card

Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates

Gerrit Cole is lights out against the Cubs at home, but Jake Arrieta is lights out against everyone everywhere. My NL Cy Young runner up carries the Cubs in the one game playoff, and the offense of youth scores enough to move on.

NL Division Series

New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers

This series is going to be interesting with the Dodgers all but guaranteed the first two games behind Kershaw and Greinke. Despite an ugly end to the year, look for the Mets offense to wake back up, and their pitching to compete as well. I think this series goes five games, but give me the Mets in a close call.

Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals

Injuries at the wrong time, and pitching missing some important arms, it's an imperfect disaster for the Cardinals. The Cubs were scorching to end the regular season, and there's no reason to think Joe Maddon's club is stopping any time soon. Give me Theo's kids here.

NL Championship Series

Chicago Cubs over New York Mets

With all intentions of ending the World Series drought after getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, Chicago will come in guns blazing. After surviving two series already, Joe Maddon's team will be well prepared for Terry Collins and the Mets. With Matt Harvey's availability likely in question at this point, and Arrieta expected to be rolling, the Cubs get back to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

World Series

Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago Cubs

David vs. Goliath of sorts, the Blue Jays enter as the favorite with the Cubs the team unexpected in this spot. While Chicago should give Toronto a challenge, the Blue Jays should continue to be too much. Behind Josh Donaldson and an impressive offense, along with a formidable pitching staff, the deadline moves pay off north of the border. Give me the Blue Jays winning their third World Series and first since 1993.

Who Toes The Playoff Rubber For The Twins?

Let me start this off by saying that I'm incredibly hopefully I'm not putting the cart in front of the horse here. As things stand, Minnesota is on the outside looking in, and trails both the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. With the Los Angeles Angels not far behind, things will get interesting before they get sorted out. For argument's sake though, let's assume that the Twins are your second AL Wild Card team.

Rather than simply breaking down who starts a one game Wild Card contest for the Twins, I want to take things a step further. Should the Twins need a win and in situation (a game 163), or maybe they advance to the ALDS, here's how I would urge manager Paul Molitor to handle things on the bump.

Game 163

If the Twins keep going at the rate they are, separation isn't something that appears to be on the horizon. Minnesota has been jockeying with the AL West for most of the second half, and that's where they'd find a game 163 opponent. Minnesota owns a 1-2 record against the Angels, 3-3 versus the Astros, and 3-3 against the Rangers. Whoever the competitor is, there's only one man for the mound.

With a game 163 falling into the regular season category, PED-user Ervin Santana would be eligible to pitch in the game. The argument for who gets the ball should begin and end with Santana. Not eligible for the postseason, Minnesota utilizing their 2015 free agent signee in his final capacity is a must. There have been some rocky outings, but in his last 3 starts, Santana has been lights out. His 1.23 ERA and 27/4 K/BB ratio should play healthily towards helping the Twins advance. Allowing just a .228/.282/.304 slash line, Santana has continued to have the upper hand on opposing batters.

If Minnesota needs to get just one more win, the $55 million man in Santana is my choice.

AL Wild Card

Major League Baseball introduced the second wild card team recently, and in doing so have created a one game first round. With a full rotation not yet needed to be considered, the wild card game is another must win situation. The Yankees seem to be the likely team awaiting its opposition, but the Blue Jays could find themselves in the contest as well.

Despite ugly starts for Kyle Gibson against the Yankees (10.72 ERA across 5 starts), he's absolutely who I go with either way. Gibson has been one of Minnesota's best starters (if not the best) this season, and he's rolling off late (2.45 ERA since Aug 22). On the year, Gibson has added nearly a full strikeout to his career best 6.3 K/9, and he's walking batters at a career low 2.9 BB/9. On pace to push towards 200 innings, Gibson has been a horse for the Twins.

Not just a by-product of Santana's ineligibility and rotation uncertainty, Gibson is who I trust to start the playoffs.

Playoff Rotation

Under the assumption that the Twins and Molitor would look to utilize a traditional three-man rotation, we have two spots yet to decide. Gibson getting the ball for game one, the discussion would be between Mike Pelfrey, Tyler Duffey, Phil Hughes and Tommy Milone.

Of the three candidates, Milone is a lock for me. He's had a strong year pitching to the tune of a respectable 3.73 ERA. Owning a 3.67 ERA since his recall (Aug 16), and owning a 3.06 ERA in September, Milone is peaking at the right time. His low walk rate should spare him trouble, and giving the Twins a chance to win remains the ultimate goal.

Selecting a third starter, and a guy that I might start in front of Milone, would be Phil Hughes. Last season's ace, Hughes has been a different animal this time around. The home run problem has plagued him in 2015, and September is the only month in which he's yet to surrender a long ball (having made just one start). Hughes is still settling back in after a DL stint, and while he's capable of being a go to, the big run innings provide a level of uncertainty in the playoffs. Under different circumstances, I'd feel more confident about Hughes. Nonetheless, he's another lock for inclusion in the rotation.

Going with Gibson, Milone, and Hughes leaves both Pelfrey on the outside looking in. I think both pitchers can be very effective out of the bullpen (a role I think Duffey finds himself in during 2016). Pelfrey is going to pitch in long relief in the playoffs almost assuredly, but Duffey may not find himself on the 25. I'd keep Duffey over a bench bat, but that's another discussion.

At the end of the day (er September), we'll have a better idea if this discussion even matters. Should the Twins find themselves in one of these three positions though, these are the pitching situations I think the best playoff opportunity evolves from.