The Most Interesting Man in Minnesota

Over the winter Twins fans clamored for starting pitching. After losing to the Yankees in the Postseason again, a constant bugaboo was deemed the source of weakness. Needing an ace, the Twins sought out some arms. Swinging a deal for Kenta Maeda was nice, but it may be Rich Hill that represents the haul.

Sure, he’s 40 years old but try telling Nelson Cruz that’s a milestone anyone should care about. The reality is that Hill has both been often hurt and often good. Good probably isn’t even a fair assessment, he’s been downright great. His 3.00 ERA dating back to 2016 is the 6th best mark in Major League Baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he posted an outstanding 2.45 ERA across 13 starts for the Dodgers, and he hasn’t had a year with less than double-digit strikeouts per nine innings since 2012.

In a world where velocity is king, Hill laughs at the notion. He flips his fastball up there at an average of 90.6 mph, and that’s not much of a decline considering the peak was 92.9 mph in 2012 with the Red Sox. He’s learned to live with what he has, and there’s very little surprise in how he’ll attack you.

Last season Hill utilized just two pitches. His four seem fastball was chosen 52% of the time while his big breaker was utilized at a 45.8% clip. The velo change on that curveball is staggering, dropping 15 mph all the way down to an average of 74.5. It’s not that those two types of pitches are anything special, but it is that when they derive from Hill’s hand, they’re nothing short of majestic.

Hill’s fastball spin ranks in the 91^st percentile, but it’s the bender that gets the love here. The curveball has an average spin rate of 2919 RPM, or 4^th best among pitchers that threw at least 300 of them a season ago. It’s in the 95^th percentile across the league, and it’s why Hill’s hard-hit rate is an elite 98 percentile tally.

That curveball is a thing of beauty in and of itself. With a combined 12 inches of vertical and horizontal movement above league average, barreling it remains one of the league’s toughest tasks. It’s why a hitter can step in and know they have just two pitches to look for, but still be frozen on a meaty fastball right down the gut.

You might argue there’s nothing flashy about what Hill does on the mound, and that’s probably a fair assessment. There is a level of intrigue or a mystique feeling about how he competes, however. The stuff may lull you to sleep but being that dominant by going virtually against the grain is something we don’t see in baseball anymore.

Minnesota brought Hill in to bolster a rotation down the stretch. Now he’ll work right from the jump and could end up being the heart of it. When the dust settles, he’ll look to add onto his 53 Postseason innings, and those that add onto the 15 he’s pitched in the World Series could certainly culminate with a ring.

Veteran Reinforcements Focus on October

Today the Minnesota Twins announced one-year contracts with veteran starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The former immediately slots into the starting rotation while the latter won't be an option until early summer. With both acquisitions it's evident that the front office has an eye on building depth for a deep run.

Last Postseason Rocco Baldelli turned to rookie arm Randy Dobnak at Yankees Stadium. It seemed like a logical move given all of the available options, but predictably it went awry. Rather than needing to go down another unproven path, it's been in stabilizing the foundation that Minnesota has operated in constructing a winner for 2020.

Early on in the offseason Thad Levine suggested that the front office was aware of the need for impact pitching. Jake Odorizzi was a nice returning addition, and Michael Pineda may have been the best 5th starter in baseball last year. Looking for another arm to slot into the top three of the rotation, there has yet to be that level of acquisition made. I can listen on Rich Hill fitting that bill, but there's a good deal of uncertainty surrounding his efforts, and we won't know his capabilities until June at the earliest.

Dating back to 2015 Hill has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In that time he's posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.43 FIP with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 total. Not an overpowering arm, he's a magician when it comes to putting the ball past hitters, and that's made him a key cog in a very good Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. The reason he's available however, is because a 40th birthday is upcoming and it's yet to be seen how his elbow responds to recent surgery.

There's obviously a good deal of belief in what Hill has left as evidenced by the Twins monetary commitment to him. Although the guaranteed salary is just $3 million, he can push that total all the way up to $12.5 million by contributing 75 innings or 15 starts. Extrapolate that figure to a full season and you're looking at a guy that would represent a commitment above $24 million.

In Homer Bailey, the addition is a bit different. He doesn't have the high upside that Hill does, and the floor is relatively unremarkable. After being bad for quite a few years, he took considerable steps forward in 2019, and showed very well after being dealt to the Oakland Athletics. His 3.65 FIP was one of the best marks of his career, and his walk rate took a nice dive.

Minnesota's front office had already entrenched Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi at the top of their rotation. Bailey should fit in a the 4th option with Pineda eventually sliding into the five-hole come May. Hill can pitch out of any of the top three spots from June onwards, but banking on his contributions seems a bit lofty given the present opportunity. This is where the final step lies.

Having built the roster backwards this winter, it's in the last touch that Minnesota can truly put this over the top. A corner infielder is still needed, and a Josh Donaldson signing would be monumental. Sure, Marwin Gonzalez can play first base, but removing his utility would seem to limit his upside. Hill and Bailey could round out the rotation, but swinging a trade for an upper-tier arm should still be the goal.

Before these moves were made official my belief was that the Twins were two Opening Day arms away from calling it good. Bailey represents one of them, and the second is still to be determined. The 40 man roster is now full, prospects are aplenty, and opportunity is there for the taking. Falvey and Levine finding a trade of their liking to bolster the top half makes a depth group highlighted by Hill and supplemented by names like Thorpe, Smetlzer, Dobnak, and Graterol all the more exciting.

On it's own, this pair of pistols can't be seen as enough. With a last boost to the top of the ladder, then it's more than worthy of calling the offseason complete.