Twins 2021 Outcome Determined in two Weeks

 

The Minnesota Twins have not been good for the vast majority of 2021. It’s gotten late early, and their season will be determined before the All Star break commences. Which way they go is up to these next two weeks of action.

 

Prior to Sunday’s finale against Cleveland, veteran Josh Donaldson called a player’s only meeting. These types of closed door hoorah’s always have a way of becoming public, and the hope is that while the content stays behind closed doors, the results are visible to those outside of the room. Donaldson did his part in the tilt that followed, but it’s the Twins schedule right now that will dictate the response.

Josh Donaldson called a players’ meeting before Sunday’s game with a message: The #MNTwins have a big opportunity ahead of them that they can attack with energy. He backed that up with a homer in a blowout win:https://t.co/PPKTFB8dhu

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) June 28, 2021

Kicking off a four game set against the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota will see each of Chicago’s best starters. Trailing in the division by 11.5 games, and 10 under .500, the Twins are in do or die territory. Playing better baseball and catching the South Siders in a bit of a slide may help, but the only thing that matters is results.

Rocco Baldelli’s club isn’t afforded the opportunity to play a schedule of splits anymore, they have to win series. Anything less than three of four against the White Sox won’t cut it. From there, Minnesota heads to Kansas City for three prior to returning home for a seven game homestand with Chicago (3) and Detroit (4). It’s in these contests right now that the Twins season will be determined. 

The expectation is, and as it should be, that they’ll be sellers at the deadline. A team sitting at 33-43 nearing the end of June has no business making the Postseason. Regardless of expectations for this club, they’ve fallen flat and failed to make what was expected to be a compelling two-team AL Central race anything but. The division still isn’t great, but it’s on the Twins to prove they belong in any sort of second-half conversation.

That Donaldson was even in a position to give the Twins a speech necessitating a jump start is noteworthy in and of itself. He hit the shelf early and has since been one of the most consistently available bodies. Now looking to lead both by example and motivationally, it’s put up or shut up time for the whole squad.

Minnesota still can’t pitch, they’re 29^th in fWAR among all staffs across the majors, and help isn’t readily available on the farm. The offense has come around however, and if they can go on a run during these next two weeks, they’ll be rewarded with the return of MVP candidate Byron Buxton. 

Expecting 2021 to go like this was not in the cards for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. This is the hand they played though, and now they’ll have two weeks to see if there’s any ace left up their sleeve. If not, it’s going to become a selloff of veterans and a turn to reload in 2022.

Twins Bets Worth Cashing in 2021

 

Last season was a difficult one to check in with regarding over under lines put out by major sportsbooks. With the truncated season having goofy projected stat lines, they never made a ton of sense to dive into. Normalcy has begun to return, and there’s some money to be made based on Minnesota performances in the year ahead.

 

I tend to shy away from RBI focused lines, and the Twins have a handful of new subjects being considered big enough names worthy of individual focus for the year ahead. There wasn’t a ton of lines I loved, but there’s some long shots that also seem incredibly juicy. Let’s get into it.

 

Jose Berrios OVER 190.5 strikeouts

 

Each of the past two full seasons, the only he’s pitched in the majors, Berrios has tallied 202 and 195 strikeouts. Last season in 63.0 IP the Twins hurler racked up 68 strikeouts, which was nearly a full strikeout improvement to his K/9 from 2019. I don’t know that we see the Puerto Rican all of a sudden make a run at a Cy Young award, but I think sustainability is something that will emerge in 2021. Minnesota reworked his offseason routine with hopes of avoiding the late summer swoon, and Berrios has made velocity additions under pitching coach Wes Johnson. Let me have the over on what would otherwise be his lowest full-season strikeout total.

 

Josh Donaldson OVER 27.5 home runs

 

In his first year with the Twins Josh Donaldson played in under 50% of the team’s games. Nagging calf issues aren’t new for the former MVP, and if nothing else, that should represent some hope in that he’ll know how to rehab effectively. With Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson crushed 37 dingers, and even in a 113-game campaign during 2017 he posted 33 longballs. In fact, the last time Donaldson didn’t hit 27 homers in a year where substantial time was missed happened way back in 2013. This will be the season that the Bringer of Rain shows why he was handed a $100 million contract, and he’ll be part of an offense that provides plenty of thump.

 

Miguel Sano OVER 35.5 home runs

 

Hitting 35 homers would represent a career high for the Twins first basemen. That might make this line seem like a stretch, however, he clubbed 34 of them in just 105 games during the 2019 season. 2021 is the first season since he’s been refocused within the game to not have a spring setback. There’s no achilles injury or bout with Covid and the Dominican appears to be all systems go. Miguel Sano struck out a ridiculous 43.9% of the time a season ago yet still hit homers at a pace of 39 per 162 games. I’d bet heavily on him reducing the whiff rate to something more in line with career norms, and he’s still going to give away a lot of baseballs to fans back in ballparks.

 

Minnesota Twins OVER 89.5 wins

 

This line seems like free money and beyond odd to me. Not only are the Twins not considered favorites to three-peat in the AL Central, but it would also represent a division with a second-place team not reaching the 90-win plateau. Back in 2019 that happened in just two divisions, both in the National League, and with no real secondary competition. Minnesota should still be expected atop Chicago until the White Sox show otherwise, but even if that isn’t the case, dropping below 90 wins seems like a really big stretch.

 

Lead MLB in HRs Miguel Sano (25/1) Nelson Cruz (40/1)

 

The former seems like a fairly strong bet here. Any player that should surpass 40 home runs has to be in the conversation for this accolade, and at 25/1 there’s no reason not to throw something on Sano. I think he’s more likely to take the title than teammate Nelson Cruz, but the 40/1 odds for the designated hitter are too juicy to pass up as well. There’s not enough reason to indicate the favorites are more likely to race out to an easy victory, so taking a flier makes sense.

 

AL Cy Young Winner Kenta Maeda (22/1)

 

Something seems odd here too as Maeda is the reigning runner-up for this award and yet he’s got longer odds than teammate Jose Berrios (16/1). Maeda has been flawless through nine innings this spring, but that’s not really the story here. The former Dodgers starter has always been overshadowed in Los Angeles and he flashed how good he really is a season ago. That wasn’t a short season fluke, and a repeat performance wouldn’t be shocking, while going the distance to establish him as an ace.

Twins Spending Can Take Another Step Forward

 

Today Maury Brown put an article out at Forbes that illustrated some of the economic impact across baseball in relation to a pandemic shortened 2020 season. While the league as a whole spent roughly $2.5B less on salaries, the per game adjustments note a step forward. The Twins can and need to afford a similar path in the year ahead.

 

In 2019 $2,472,194,292 more dollars were spent on payrolls across baseball. Obviously, there were also 102 more games played that season. Adjusting the calendar to be in line with what we experienced during 2020 however, a 12% increase in player salaries would’ve been realized.

 

On the Twins front, Minnesota paid out $52,627,942 in salaries during the 2020 season. That was good enough for 19^th in baseball. They paid a total of $125,205,980 in 2019, and that comes out to an adjusted amount of $46,372,585. It makes sense that the Pohlad family would push more finances into roster construction during an open window and following a length period of cost savings, but it’s glad to see that come to fruition.

 

After going big on Josh Donaldson to the tune of a four-year deal worth at least $100 million, Minnesota again finds themselves in a position to spend. Although payroll positioning isn’t indicative of talent of future finish (just ask the Tampa Bay Rays), stockpiling more assets is hardly a bad practice. Coming off a second straight AL Central division title and looking to supplement an already strong core around a star like Donaldson, another step up makes plenty of sense.

 

Despite the down revenues for the league as a whole in 2020, the reality is that Scott Boras’ assessment is likely factual. Teams didn’t actually lose money as much as they simply didn’t take in typical profits. Coming off years of record growth financially however, that should hardly be the sole motivator, and especially not for organizations in the midst of prime competitive windows.

 

Minnesota has a respectable farm system and one that has both established depth while harboring some very high projected prospects at the top. Even Royce Lewis though shouldn’t be considered a cornerstone on a Major League team for the next one or two seasons. That’s a point in which most of the Twins core is looking into their 30’s while the big contract for Donaldson is a year from lapsing. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine can’t throw caution to the wind, but they’ve built a sustained winner, and now is time to continue adding pieces.

 

There have been rumblings about what the Twins plan to do at the shortstop position, and there’s no doubt they have holes in the starting rotation as it would currently be constructed. Minnesota is never going to be able to compete with big market clubs purely from an enticement factor but saving dollars doesn’t make much sense given the state of the competitive opportunity and the challenge Chicago will certainly present.

 

It’s good to see that even in a year with decreased revenues and unprecedented hurdles the Twins stepped up on the bottom line. Now they need to continue to weather the storm and do it again for 2021.

Are the Twins Preparing a Big Surprise?

 

This offseason was always going to be incredibly weird. Coming off a pandemic shortened season, with no fans, and an unprecedented amount of uncertainty still ahead, how teams would tackle preparations for 2021 is a mystery. The Twins are good though, and despite a few holes they want to get better. What if they go all in?

 

This morning at ESPN Jeff Passan penned a piece regarding some rumblings he’s heard around the league. One of them was a note on the Minnesota Twins circling like a shark in the water. Executives had apparently suggested that Minnesota is “lurking” and appears “ready to strike with a big move as they did last season.” That big move alluded to was the signing of Josh Donaldson to a $100 million deal. How could something like that be replicated?

 

On the free agent market there’s only a couple of splashes that would fall into that category in and of themselves. Signing Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto would push dollar signs into that realm. Bauer is arguably the most natural fit of the group, and his next deal could be the most interesting. He’s previously said he’d like to by an assassin for hire and string together lucrative one-year deals. Agent Rachel Luba has commented that they’re open to whatever the best fit is. Bauer makes sense in Minnesota, but I’d imagine there’s other more desirable markets.

 

Looking at the latter two options, the Twins would be in a bit of a weird spot even though both are clear upgrades. Springer plays corner outfield, and despite the departure of Eddie Rosario, the assumption is that top prospect Alex Kirilloff will take over in short order. Mitch Garver had a down and injury plagued year in 2020, but Ryan Jeffers looked the part of a starting quality option. Realmuto would push both to the bench, although he could make the DH spot less of a pressing Nelson Cruz matter.

 

I don’t think anything else on the free agency front would qualify as Donaldson-esque. Maybe signing Didi Gregorious, Marcus Semien, or Andrelton Simmons to be the starting shortstop creates ripples, but none of those guys should break the bank. If it’s not going to happen on the open market, swinging a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well with.

 

Although the system isn’t as loaded as it once was, the Twins minor league depth right now is in a great place. Royce Lewis probably remains off the table, but he’s less untouchable than I assumed even a year ago. Beyond that, everyone should be under consideration. Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran headline the pitching while Trevor Larnach, Aaron Sabato, and Keoni Cavaco are the offensive gems.

 

Without reading too much into what Passan has reported, there’s certainly a feeling of a silent killer right now. Chicago is looking to load up as the White Sox have their most competitive team in years. The Twins are the clear cream of the crop right now though and remaining there will take legitimate additions. After hearing about payroll decreases and scaled back financial efforts after decreased revenues in 2020, there should have been legitimate fear regarding Minnesota’s opportunity to capitalize.

 

If this is just the beginning of smoke, and we don’t have fire for some time, the hope should be that this is an inkling of the Twins keeping their foot on the gas. The front office and development staff have pushed a largely home-grown roster to the point of opportunity. The window is wide open and continuing to jump through it as long as they can, should be the goal. One Postseason win, or a series victory is where it starts, but this organization has all the makings of a legitimate contender.

Should Twins Again Scoop Up Schoop?

 

This offseason one of the areas Minnesota must address is the utility role. A player that primarily plays the infield, with an ability to start for a significant stretch at either second or third base makes sense. Former Twins two-bagger Jonathan Schoop fits that bill, but should the organization be interested?

 

After a solid 2019 season with the Twins, Schoop signed a one-year deal with the Detroit Tigers. He stayed in the AL Central division, and it came at a $1.4M pay cut. Now having substantiated the success and being just 29 years old, it may be his best opportunity to look for a multi-year deal.

 

Schoop’s history is somewhat of an interesting one. He was an All-Star for the Orioles in 2017 posting an .841 OPS. Then in 2018 he took a step backwards, ultimately being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, where he was downright abysmal. Signing in the winter to be the Twins starter at second, he eventually would lose the role to rookie Luis Arraez. Playing in 44 games for the Tigers this past season, he was a steadying veteran presence on a bad club but put up a solid .799 OPS.

 

I don’t know that you can expect the .841 OPS again from Schoop as it was a career high and certainly represents an outlier over the course of his career. An OPS in the high .700’s with 20+ home run potential is a valuable asset, however. Schoop has starting experience and could spell either Arraez or Josh Donaldson for stretches if need be. Add in that he’s still in what should be considered his prime, and the familiarity with an organization could provide a smooth and productive transition.

 

Another interesting aspect of bringing Schoop back is exactly what his market will look like. He took a pay cut in 2020 despite rebounding well the season before. Now he’s coming off an even better year, albeit in a small sample, but ownership groups across the league are looking to spend less. Factor in that Schoop could also be eyeing a multi-year pact, and it’s hard to gauge what a realistic number for him may actually be.

 

In targeting Schoop, or any utility option, the Twins are needing to mitigate against what Marwin Gonzalez wound up being in 2020. His .606 OPS rendered him an unplayable asset, and the .713 OPS since 2017 really calls into question how much of a boost the sign-stealing scandal helped in producing a career best .907 OPS that year. With Arraez having knee issues in 2020, and Donaldson being a consistent injury concern due to calf issues, the next man up must be a high-quality player and not just a short-term fill in. On the surface it would be fair to suggest Schoop fits the bill.

 

There’s actually a decent amount of utility targets this winter, and more than a few of them have significant run playing in starting roles. Maybe Schoop doesn’t want to return to a team in which his job may be in jeopardy again. There’s plenty of reason to believe he could garner a few starts each week however and being a part of the Bomba Squad probably provides some pretty good memories.

 

The market is going to take time developing this offseason and expecting it to be depressed across the board is a pretty good bet. We may not have great inclinations as to what Minnesota will want to do for some time, but Schoop provides another avenue for them to explore.

The Twins Can’t Afford to Decrease Payroll in 2021

At this point of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, we’re dealing with an astronomical amount of assumptions and hypotheticals. Given the league year has yet to flip over to 2021, we have no idea what will actually happen. The general consensus is one of teams taking a step back, and well, for Minnesota that’s the wrong move.

 

In 2020 the Minnesota Twins owned the 18th highest payroll in Major League Baseball. The prorated portion of their commitment was just north of $55 million. They jumped the overall commitment north by taking on established veteran Kenta Maeda, and signing Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $100 million contract. Coming off a record setting 2019, it was clear that this team was in the midst of a competitive window.

 

Fast forward to where we are today. Minnesota won the AL Central Division for a second straight season (even if it was in a shortened schedule) and played to the pace of a 97-win baseball club. For all intents and purposes, they were again among the best teams in the sport. Naturally, that would lead us to an offseason in which they are looking to…take a step backwards?

 

If you haven’t yet taken a look at TwinsPayroll.com, head over there right now. What you’ll quickly see is that the tool put together by Twins Daily highlights the constraints facing an expected tightening of the payroll for 2021. You want Nelson Cruz back? Good luck winding up with any pitching. How about signing Trevor Bauer? The bullpen will be filled with guys making the league minimum. Almost any way you cut it, there’s no avenue to bring back the majority of what was a very good 2020 club.

 

Entering the pre-pandemic 2020 season with a payroll around $140 million, we’re suggesting even a small step backwards resulting in a payroll around $125 million. Despite entering the height of their most recent competitive window, Minnesota would be tasked with shedding talent in order to help out the bottom line.

 

On one hand this is understandable. Major League Baseball organizations played out the string this year with no fans in attendance. No concessions were bought, and ticket sales very clearly didn’t happen. On the other hand, ownership groups signed off on a new Postseason deal valued at nearly $4 billion. Those same owners have been making money hand over fist for years, and while MLB claims financial hardship, the more likely reality is that the bottom line isn’t quite as green. Of course, we’ll never know for sure with all of their books being top secret.

 

Should taking a step backwards from an overall payroll perspective make sense, it would seem that buck would be passed onto players. The arbitration process isn’t likely to change prior to the CBA being renegotiated following the 2021 season, but free agency could become somewhat of a market inefficiency. Ownership groups may decide to tell players simply take what’s out there or wait and see what happens a year from now. Maybe the contracts agreed to are a fraction of what would’ve been guaranteed in a traditional cycle. Short of that, it’s really hard to predict what’s going to happen.

 

This can’t happen for the Twins, not now, and it would be damaging if it does. Minnesota has dealt with years of poor play to build up to this point. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have constructed a consistent winner. The farm system is in a good, not great, place ready to bear fruit. The Major League roster is among the best in the sport and just had a mega-star added to it. Taking their foot off the gas now and trying to piece it together with lesser parts would be counterproductive to everything necessary up until this point.

 

I can understand the fiscal desire to recoup funds following a year of certainty. If you’re goal is to maximize return on investment through the course of winning though, the time to take a step backwards is not now. That’s a tough pill to swallow in times of economic strife, but it’s why billionaires’ own franchises instead of those simply making ends meet.

Approaching a Critical Timing for Twins Injuries

This week is quite possibly the most important the Minnesota Twins will have embarked upon in 2020. Monday represents the halfway point in the 60-game sprint, while a week from then is the 2020 Trade Deadline. With plenty of guys on the shelf, it’s imperative Rocco’s boys keep winning and get healthy.

 

Starting out with three games on the road against the Cleveland Indians, Minnesota will miss both Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac but deal with Shane Bieber anyways. After leaving Ohio, they’ll travel to Michigan for a four-game set with the lowly Detroit Tigers. In terms of opponents, there couldn’t be more of a stark contrast, but putting distance between themselves and The Tribe will be reliant on early week wins and later expected results.

 

Leading the division by 1.5 games as of August 24, Minnesota is in a very good position to make the Postseason. This team’s goals are significantly loftier than that however, and it’s in that reality that the situation off the field may prove even more dire. Right now, Baldelli’s lineup is void of 33% of the Opening Day group, and the pitching staff seems to take a new hit each day. The latter is an issue, but the former could prove to be a real problem.

 

Josh Donaldson has been shelved since July 31, playing just seven games in his debut season with his new team. Miguel Sano swapped positions to accommodate him, and following a COVID positive, it took Sano roughly two weeks into the season to get his bat going. Donaldson currently owns a .614 OPS on the year and hasn’t settled in at the plate. If he misses much more beyond this week, expecting him to be acclimated and contribute from the outset of October would be somewhat of a fool’s errand.

 

Ryan Jeffers is the future tandem partner with Mitch Garver anyways, so ushering him in hasn’t been a problem. Garver also hasn’t gotten going however, and while it looked like he was starting to find it, the intercostal injury could cost him ample time to lock in. The injury is just a grade 1 problem, but it still remains to be seen when he’ll be back on the field.

 

In the outfield Byron Buxton has been among the Twins greatest assets this season. It’s a sigh of relief that his shoulder injury doesn’t involve the surgically repaired labrum, but it seemed to come out of nowhere and anything more than a 10-day breather would seem problematic. Jake Cave has not stepped up at the plate, and both Rosario and Kepler on the corners have yet to consistently contribute.

 

On the mound there’s a reinforcement coming in the form of Michael Pineda. However, Cody Stashak has been one of the club’s best relievers and him going down out of nowhere was a blow. Zack Littell worked plenty of high leverage a season ago, and now an elbow injury could prove to be a serious problem. Tyler Clippard gets bit by unluckiness being hit by a comebacker, and Homer Bailey has yet to do anything of substance for Minnesota. To say that the shuffling on the mound is starting to wear thing would probably be putting it lightly.

 

There’s not much in the form of starting pitching options that will be available at the deadline, and that means Minnesota will either need to stay internal or go the route of relief to bolster their staff for the stretch run. I’m not yet considering who is brought in being impactful to the same extent as who can get healthy. This week is a critical juncture for the players and training staff to get bodies back on the field.

 

Ideally Buxton misses the minimum, Donaldson returns to the lineup, and Clippard has now more than a bruise needing to heal. This club has all the talent in the world, but there’s only so many injuries one roster can truly withstand.

Devil’s in the Defense for the Twins

You’ve heard of the Devil being in the details, well finding what advantage the Twins have crafted in 2020 may come from a surprising place, their defense. After finishing 23^rd overall in team defense last season, Minnesota currently finds themselves 2^nd in 2020.

 

We knew many of the problems from a year ago. Jorge Polanco was not a good defensive shortstop, particularly coming in on the ball. Luis Arraez was stretched going to his right, and the outfield suffered every game Byron Buxton had to miss. Bringing in Josh Donaldson was expected to be a boost for the infield, and a healthy Buck would be a great remedy on the grass. Not all of that has played out though, and yet, here we are.

 

Minnesota has gotten just 7 games from Donaldson in his first year with the club. Despite that, their 14 DRS is 3^rd in the big leagues and leads the American League. Byron Buxton has already been worth 6 DRS on his own, and while Polanco has been worth -3 DRS, his 0.7 UZR represents the only positive mark of his entire career. Luis Arraez was worth -8 DRS in just shy of 400 innings during 2019. This year, he’s been worth 2 DRS in 157 frames.

 

This isn’t just an individual player thing though, and it’s clear Minnesota is taking an analytical approach to cutting down base hits. With 322 shifts, or 42.4% this year, Rocco Baldelli’s club ranks 10^th in the majors. Last season they shifted just 35.5% of the time. Against righties the Twins are shifting 33% of the time, or virtually the same frequency they did a year ago. Against lefties though, they’ve gone from 36.4% in 2019 to 53.2% in 2020.

Look at how drastically different the #MNTwins shifts are vs LHB in 2020. The dark red for 2B/SS indicate a consistency. They've jumped usage by nearly 20% pic.twitter.com/6R3JcPUJ1f

— Ted (@tlschwerz) August 17, 2020

Thinking about configuration, left-handed shifts also bring some interesting possibilities to consider. Miguel Sano is holding down first base for the first time in his career. He’s been caught a couple of time straying to far from the bag. In a shift however, he’s solely responsible for the line. Luis Arraez, who was challenged going up the middle last season, plays a roving right field with Polanco up the middle to his right. Whether it’s Donaldson or Ehire Adrianza at the hot corner, there’s a plus defender standing near the shortstop hole against a lefty.

 

In the outfield, Minnesota again has made tweaks with Byron Buxton. In a recent article for The Athletic Aaron Gleeman talked about how the centerfielder is starting deeper than he ever has. With the ability to come in on virtually anything, this gives him the opportunity to find the wall and remain more in control when playing balls near it. Eddie Rosario looks the part of a healthier left-fielder, and Max Kepler asserted himself as a stalwart while pulling double time last year.

 

Thus far we haven’t seen the Twins offense click on all cylinders, and there hasn’t been a certainty to the entirety of the rotation either. While the bullpen has flashed very well at points, there have been cracks on that front also. If there’s a tried and true narrative for 2020 it’s that this team shows up with the glove. Errors are a dated way to measure success, but from the most basic number the club has committed just two through their first 22 games.

 

Pitching and hitting can go in slumps, but defense is completely mental beyond the overall athleticism needed to compete. Give it to the Twins for being completely locked in there on a nightly basis.

Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster 2.0

The last stab I took at this was on January 20^th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today.

Projection 1.0

Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila

No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate.

Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza

Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4^th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to.

Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave

More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around.

Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz

Yes, still here to hit bombas.

Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin

This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5^th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title.

Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak

This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top.

Projecting the Twins 2020 Opening Day Roster

After making their biggest splash in franchise history, the Minnesota Twins have all but put a bow on the offseason. There’s less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers, and the first season of 26-man rosters will soon be underway. Rocco Baldelli will soon begin year two, and it’s worth wondering who goes north with him.

I think Minnesota could still afford to add a starting pitcher and doing so through a trade has always seemed like the most logical path. That may not come before the games begin to matter however, so now seems like a good time to blueprint what is currently in the fold. No doubt there’s some key cogs on the shelf to start the year, but that leaves a couple of spots open for competition.

Before kicking things off at Spring Training, here’s where I see the 26-man headed as of today:

Catcher (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila

This should be a certainty. Garver is coming off the best year of his career, and Avila was signed to replace Jason Castro. It will be interesting to see if the Twins unleash a bit more Garv Sauce this year, but the load will be handled by this tandem.

Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson, Ehire Adrianza

You’ve got a group of four starters that are all but locked into their positions. Obviously, Donaldson’s signing was a massive get for the Twins, and he pushes Sano into a new position. How the infield works, and what steps forward the group takes, are still in question but no one is unsure of who will play where. Adrianza returns as the utility man, and he had a very nice 2019 season.

Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jake Cave, Marwin Gonzalez

At this moment Rosario has not yet been dealt anywhere. That could certainly change at some point throughout the year, but the starting outfield should be set in stone. Byron Buxton will be returning from surgery, and hopefully pick back up where he left off. Kepler looks like a guy that could break out as one of the best players in baseball. Cave did some very nice things last year, and Marwin should transition to more of an outfield first utility role.

Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz

He’s back, and he’ll hit more bombas. Not much else to say here.

Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Lewis Thorpe, Randy Dobnak

There should be a good deal of turnover in this group as the season goes on, and that’s not something we saw much of in 2019. Berrios and Odorizzi will remain the whole year, and Bailey should be a fine replacement for Kyle Gibson. I think Lewis Thorpe has immense potential and starting in the Opening Day rotation would give him a great opportunity. Dobnak gets the nod here for me over Devin Smeltzer. This spot eventually may be taken by Brusdar Graterol, but ultimately, I think he begins the year at Triple-A.

Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak

This group has six current locks in Rogers, May, Romo, Duffey, Clippard, and Littell. From there, I think they go with two more arms and that includes Wisler and Stashak. Wisler is a slider specialist that Minnesota gave a guaranteed contract to this offseason. Stashak debuted at the end of 2019 and threw 25 innings to the tune of a 3.24 ERA. He made a great first impression, and the 25/1 K/BB was something special out of the gates. Fernando Romero could be on the cusp here, and Ryne Harper may have lost his opportunity.

Donaldson Provides a Twins Day for the Ages

Tonight Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. It's the largest in franchise history by nearly double the financial commitment, and it's the first major commitment placed by the new front office. Early into the decade or not, this one is something that will go down in history.

Last offseason I touched on Donaldson as a guy that the Twins should target. Coming off of injury it seemed like he could be a guy that they nail for a one-year deal and utilize as a massive superstar. Unfortunately he chose to make good in his hometown state, but the opportunity presented itself again. While the front office looked to be dragging their feet, and Donaldson was obviously angling for the largest payday, and eventual resolution was reached.

Although Donaldson is known for punishing baseballs into the stratosphere, he presents a far greater impact to a team like the Twins. With such strong infield defense at the hot corner, a reconfiguration of bodies on the corners should give the overall unit a boost. Rocco Baldelli's club was not good up the middle on the dirt last year, and Josh Donaldson has an ability to change that. We'll wait and see how Miguel Sano adapts to first base, but the assumption should be net zero at worst.

After possessing the second best lineup in baseball a year ago, the Bomba Squad just landed a guy who posted a .900 OPS on his own. There have been injury concerns in recent seasons, but a clean bill of health allowed performance to reign supreme in Atlanta. Adding that level of production to a group that tallied an .832 OPS is unheralded, and one way to combat staunch pitching.

There's certainly reason to gripe about what Minnesota has done on the mound. Michael Pineda and Rich Hill are nice additions, but neither are available from the outset. Falvey and Levine have built the rotation to compete when it matters, and this club will have a lineup capable of pounding the opposition to a pulp.

At this point there's no other option for those tossing out the "Pocket Protector" remarks and doubt towards the front office than to take a lap. Spending has always made the most sense when there's opportunity and sustenance behind it. We've reached that window, and the men in charge have made good.

Now, it's time to Bring the Rain.

Veteran Reinforcements Focus on October

Today the Minnesota Twins announced one-year contracts with veteran starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The former immediately slots into the starting rotation while the latter won't be an option until early summer. With both acquisitions it's evident that the front office has an eye on building depth for a deep run.

Last Postseason Rocco Baldelli turned to rookie arm Randy Dobnak at Yankees Stadium. It seemed like a logical move given all of the available options, but predictably it went awry. Rather than needing to go down another unproven path, it's been in stabilizing the foundation that Minnesota has operated in constructing a winner for 2020.

Early on in the offseason Thad Levine suggested that the front office was aware of the need for impact pitching. Jake Odorizzi was a nice returning addition, and Michael Pineda may have been the best 5th starter in baseball last year. Looking for another arm to slot into the top three of the rotation, there has yet to be that level of acquisition made. I can listen on Rich Hill fitting that bill, but there's a good deal of uncertainty surrounding his efforts, and we won't know his capabilities until June at the earliest.

Dating back to 2015 Hill has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In that time he's posted a 2.91 ERA and 3.43 FIP with a 10.7 K/9 and a 2.8 BB/9 total. Not an overpowering arm, he's a magician when it comes to putting the ball past hitters, and that's made him a key cog in a very good Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. The reason he's available however, is because a 40th birthday is upcoming and it's yet to be seen how his elbow responds to recent surgery.

There's obviously a good deal of belief in what Hill has left as evidenced by the Twins monetary commitment to him. Although the guaranteed salary is just $3 million, he can push that total all the way up to $12.5 million by contributing 75 innings or 15 starts. Extrapolate that figure to a full season and you're looking at a guy that would represent a commitment above $24 million.

In Homer Bailey, the addition is a bit different. He doesn't have the high upside that Hill does, and the floor is relatively unremarkable. After being bad for quite a few years, he took considerable steps forward in 2019, and showed very well after being dealt to the Oakland Athletics. His 3.65 FIP was one of the best marks of his career, and his walk rate took a nice dive.

Minnesota's front office had already entrenched Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi at the top of their rotation. Bailey should fit in a the 4th option with Pineda eventually sliding into the five-hole come May. Hill can pitch out of any of the top three spots from June onwards, but banking on his contributions seems a bit lofty given the present opportunity. This is where the final step lies.

Having built the roster backwards this winter, it's in the last touch that Minnesota can truly put this over the top. A corner infielder is still needed, and a Josh Donaldson signing would be monumental. Sure, Marwin Gonzalez can play first base, but removing his utility would seem to limit his upside. Hill and Bailey could round out the rotation, but swinging a trade for an upper-tier arm should still be the goal.

Before these moves were made official my belief was that the Twins were two Opening Day arms away from calling it good. Bailey represents one of them, and the second is still to be determined. The 40 man roster is now full, prospects are aplenty, and opportunity is there for the taking. Falvey and Levine finding a trade of their liking to bolster the top half makes a depth group highlighted by Hill and supplemented by names like Thorpe, Smetlzer, Dobnak, and Graterol all the more exciting.

On it's own, this pair of pistols can't be seen as enough. With a last boost to the top of the ladder, then it's more than worthy of calling the offseason complete.

Donaldson to Fix Twins Hot Corner?

Bryce Harper has the best hair on the open market this winter, but Josh Donaldson may not be far behind. The oft-injured third basemen is a free agent and coincidentally plays a position that the Minnesota Twins could be looking to rectify. Joe Mauer should provide clarity to the club soon, and that could leave Miguel Sano with an opportunity to swap sides on the diamond. Transitioning from the division-rival Indians, Donaldson could be an answer to the Twins questions.

When the 2019 season gets underway the former Oakland and Toronto third basemen will be 33 years old. He's got just shy of 900 big league games under his belt, and has eight years of MLB service to his credit. Talent is undeniable when looking at what Donaldson possesses, but he's also played in just 165 games across the past two seasons.

Last season the Donaldson made $23 million in the final year of arbitration eligibility. He enters the market at an odd time, looking for a long term payday but also having to calm fears of recent injury concerns and the reality of being an aging commodity. While a one-year deal may be more team friendly this is probably his last chance to get paid, and some level of stability will be hard to pass up.

From a dollars and cents standpoint, something like three years and $75 million seems like fair market value. Donaldson would be 36 at the end of that deal, and $25 million is a steal for a guy that has owned a .931 OPS dating back to 2015. There's obviously the risk that injuries derail things from the get go, but he played in 16 games down the stretch for Cleveland and was healthy enough to act as an impact bat in the Postseason.

The Minnesota Twins have to decide how they are going to handle both their corner and middle infield spots during the first year under Rocco Baldelli. Manny Machado is a perfect fit solely from a positional standpoint, but in that same vein, so to is Donaldson. The latter comes in at a far lower price point, and given the spending flexibility, is still well within the realm of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's reach.

At his absolute best Miguel Sano is probably a league average defender at third base. Moving over to first puts him in a spot where defense is less of an issue, but also allows him the opportunity to take strides forward at a less demanding position. In Donaldson an acquiring team is getting a player that has never posted a negative defensive season in terms of DRS. With over 7,000 innings to his credit he owns a 53 DRS total and has a combined 30.3 UZR. Although he's never been rewarded with a Gold Glove, the leather is plenty strong with this one.

If there's another avenue that Donaldson plays up for the Twins, it's a middle-of-the-order bat that checks off every box. Not only is he a real power threat, having hit 29 or more home runs in each full season since 2014, but he's not a strikeout machine either. On-base threats are something Minnesota's lineup could use, and his .383 mark since 2015 is beyond impressive. Allowing Sano to see that kind of production, and likely learn from it, could pay dividends in more ways than one.

The reality is that when dealing with free agents the marriage has to be an ideal fit for both sides. No matter how much money the Twins could throw at the likes of Manny Machado, there's plenty of other big hurdles to overcome. Going into contract talks with Donaldson hoping for a one-year pact may be enticing for the Twins, but it probably doesn't move the needle or position them well amongst competing markets. Should the front office push their chips forward and believe the injury issues are behind him, this could be the opportunity to land a superstar talent through a perfect storm.

Pairing the likes of Donaldson with a lineup that includes Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton should be mouth-watering for Twins Territorians. You're never going to avoid risk when ponying up this level of cash, but being able to make a move like this doesn't often present itself so perfectly to organizations like the Twins. Whether Mauer returns or not, Donaldson fits and the iron is hot.