In Trading Santana, Twins Can Start Over

As the Minnesota Twins continue their run through the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it's more than apparent to label them as sellers when the July 31st trade deadline rolls around. Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor will have to decide who sticks going forward, but no one not named Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton should be considered off limits on the 25 man roster. It sounds like the piece that may draw the most interest could be starting pitcher Ervin Santana.

Recently, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported that an American League assistant GM told him that Santana is seen as "perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market." It's interesting that this information comes from Cafardo. Not because he's been unreliable in the past, but instead, Cafardo's assigned Red Sox could definitely use some starting help. With that reality in play, it's fair to assume he may be pretty clued in to the starting market.

So, if the Twins are actually going to grab some offers for Ervin Santana, what can we actually expect? Right now, Santana is in just the second year of a four-year deal paying him $55 million. At 33 years old, he's not merely a rental, and a contending team could do considerably worse. In his time with the Twins, Santana has started 31 games and posted a 4.27 ERA. It's almost identically in line with his 4.29 FIP and inflated due to a 1.357 WHIP. His 6.6 K/9 isn't going to light the world on fire, but his 2.9 BB/9 has been more than acceptable. A middle of the rotation starter, you'll get what you expect with Santana.

Having pitched in both the American and National (briefly) Leagues, Santana's stuff should play just fine no matter where he ends up. His fastball velocity has remained consistent the past two seasons with Minnesota, if not even slightly experiencing an increase. Looking back through his career at his contact and chase rates, he's been virtually the same pitcher for the duration of his 12 big league seasons.

In return for a pitcher like Santana, the Twins probably should do better than a throwaway prospect. Again, he's not a rental, and a veteran with his pedigree should truly be able to help a contending team down the stretch. He's not going to bring back a massive haul, but if he emerges as one of the better options on the market, Minnesota should have a few returns to choose from.

Arguably the best thing trading Santana allows the Twins to do is start over, and aim higher. Terry Ryan has made a habit (and it's a bad one) of going after middling options in free agency. It's time that someone new step in, and deviate from that strategy. In moving on from Santana, the Twins shed some significant salary requirements, and immediately open up a spot in the starting rotation.

Ideally, it's Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco that the Twins are able to move on from first, but that isn't a realistic possibility. The level of mediocrity achieved in inking them to free agent deals (and in extending Hughes) really hamstrung the Twins immediate future. While Santana is a middling option, he's still head and shoulders above the bet that was the two aforementioned names. Trading Santana though allows the process to start.

Once Santana is out of the picture, the Twins have an immediate opening in the starting rotation to be claimed by Jose Berrios. It allows him to settle in through 2016 and lay claim to a 2017 Opening Day spot. From there, you'd like to see Minnesota parlay Hughes and Nolasco into a one contract, top of the rotation starter. The caveat is that neither come off the books a season from now (Nolasco 2017, Hughes 2019). Looking at the landscape of what's available however, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

The starting pitching market in 2017 was Stephen Strasburg and everyone else. Now inked to a long term deal by the Nationals, the Twins need to be saved from themselves by overspending and overreaching yet again. In keeping Hughes and Nolasco for another year, the 2017 club could have another hot name at deadline time. While there isn't a ton of ideal options in 2018 either, Minnesota could chose to commit the $100+ million they have tied up in Hughes and Nolasco to one top tier option.

What the Twins do in the future remains a pretty significant mystery. Half of the equation is whether or not Terry Ryan gets to orchestrate what happens going forward (and the hope would be that he doesn't). What they can't do though is continue to operated along the same lines as they did to get to the place they are now. Ryan has committed over $150 million to three pitchers who all are no more than a middle-rotation starter on a playoff club.

Santana's time appears to be done, and with it should go the mindset that brought him in.

The Twins Chips Ready To Move

It's June, and the Twins are the worst team in baseball. They've currently been swept half as often as they have won games, and this season has gone the opposite of any expectations could have laid out. With a couple of months left to the trade deadline, it may be time for Terry Ryan to start sending his chips to the table. Minnesota doesn't have many any big names, but there's pieces that are worth moving.

Despite Major League Baseball dictating trades being allowed (in the traditional sense) up until July 31, the Twins would be best served to act well before then. As a handful of their current commodities may have short shelf lives, moving them prior to any downfall would be a good idea. If you've begun reading trade pieces on the interwebs at all, you know who is considered as trade chip for Minnesota, but I'm prepared to tell you who the club should move.

With that said, let's get into it.

Fernando Abad- Level of trade necessity 10

Easily Ryan's best free agent signing of the offseason, Abad came in as a non-roster guy that the Twins believed they saw something in. Commenting that he was tipping his pitches, Minnesota thought that the 4.15 ERA in 62 games for the Athletics in 2015 was an outlier, turns out they were right. Currently, Abad owns a 0.93 ERA in 19.1 IP. He's posted an 8.4 K/9 and walked just 2.3 per 9, a career best.

Abad is a lefty reliever capable of getting batters from both sides out. He's a luxury that the Twins don't need to afford. Their pen is bad, and so are they, his value doesn't push the needle much. Sending him to a contender to solidify their pen is the most realistic plan of action, and he should have plenty of suitors.

Eduardo Nunez- 9

If there's a reason the Twins shouldn't send Nunez to the All Star game, it's because he shouldn't be with the organization when that time rolls around. Considering Abad a must trade, Nunez should be considered a must trade now.

I'm not in favor of taking a bag of balls back for Nunez, but his value is never going to be higher than it is currently, and waiting only invites the opportunity for it to fall. Nunez's .329/.356/.494 slash line is well above his career norms (.274/.314/.401) and he's continued to be a poor defender. For now, he's been one of the lone contributors on a bad club, and making sure to get some return on that is a good plan of action.

There's reason to believe a return for Nunez won't equate to much, he's got a decent track record that says this is a mirage. That being said, if someone is willing to cough up a mid-level prospect, the Twins should be all over it.

Robbie Grossman- 5

Despite making few well timed moves during the offseason, and a poor display of roster control throughout 2016, Terry Ryan seems to have come up well with Grossman. The 26 year old is finally doing something he never has before, hit. An on-base machine, Grossman's bat has turned in a .359/.457/.667 line over his first 12 games with the Twins. He's already amassed 6 doubles and has two homers to his credit. Right now, Paul Molitor and crew have to be hoping the carriage doesn't turn back into a pumpkin.

Sure, Grossman is 26, and not arbitration eligible until 2018. The team control he possesses makes him valuable if you believe this sort of thing continues. However, he was cast aside by the Astros for a reason, and couldn't find his way into the Indians plans. Grossman will probably always find ways to get on base, but betting on his bat is a risky gamble.

With the ability to be a 4th outfielder at worst, I'm not going to simply give him away. I'd rather have Grossman in the organization as opposed to a retread like Darin Mastroianni in a pinch. However, Minnesota should be able to find a contender needing that type of lift immediately, and could maximize their return by flipping the recently claimed asset.

Trevor Plouffe- 7

Over the offseason, my number on Plouffe would have been a 4. I am of the belief that Miguel Sano has been virtually as expected in right field, and while some may see that as an abomination, I'd put it as simply below-standard. Sure, playing the hulking Dominican in the outfield is about as suboptimal as it gets, but the Twins and Plouffe were tied to each other.

Despite coming off a solid season for the Twins, Plouffe's winter trade market was non-existent. David Freese settled for nothing with the Pirates, and the Twins watched that all play out. The reality remained that Plouffe was more valuable to Minnesota than he was to anyone else. The unfortunate thing now is that I'm not sure that has changed.

As much as I've been ok with sano in right, it's probably time to get him back on the dirt. Plouffe though, has hit for a career worst .648 OPS and he's walked significantly less than at any other point in his career. The power numbers haven't been there, and he's merely capable at third. I'm for dealing him to open up the roster spot, and get Sano to a more comfortable position. The problem I see is that the market may dictate the Twins simply give him away, and I'm not sure that's the best plan of action.

The Others: 10

Only two guys fall into this category for me, and it's the combination of Phil Hughes and Ricky Nolasco. Remember, the numerical values represent the level of trade necessity for the Twins. I can't see either pitcher being coveted, but I'd look to move both for whatever you can get.

Nolasco was poor money allocation from the get go, and Hughes' contract extension has turned out to be a significant blunder. The Twins have starting depth, even if it isn't all top tier, but opening up the roster spots and freeing the case is a plus in and of itself. Nolasco needs to go back to the National League, and Hughes may very well be pitching hurt. There's no real scenario in which I want to lean on either guy going forward, and offloading them makes that much easier.

I can't imagine the Twins would be getting much, if any, of a return for Hughes or Nolasco. With Ricky, they may have to eat some money, and Hughes' extension pays a hefty price tag if he continues to trend the way he has. Ryan should be making it his mission to call, unload, and move on from the pair in whatever way possible however.

The Ricky Shuffle, And Minnesota's Next Moves

The day has come and gone, Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco had their show down as spring training draws to a close, and the rotation has been all but set. With Nolasco not seeming a likely rotation option coming into the season, Duffey opened the door with his tough spring, and the veteran capitalized. Now with the rotation looking set, a few other dominoes will fall into place.

Despite getting a vote of confidence from manager Paul Molitor out of the gate, Duffey did the one thing he couldn't afford to do this spring, be mediocre. As a candidate for regression after a very solid final 9 starts in 2015, the former Rice closer needed to hold serve and the rotation spot was his. While he was looking to add a third pitch to his repertoire, a changeup, it was his command that alluded him most down in Florida.

Although Ricky Nolasco was far from a lights out option this spring, he took the door Duffey left cracked open, and kicked it in. Turning in multiple solid performances on the major league side, the man Minnesota owes $24 million over the next two years forced his way back into the team's plans. Now penciled in to be the club's fifth starter, we can begin to wonder what happens next.

First for Nolasco.

I looked at what needs to go right for the former Marlins ace back in February. He is signed on an over-extended contract given his track record in the lesser national league, and he's coming off two poor seasons for the Twins. First and foremost, he needs to be able to find his confidence once again. Falling behind hitters far too often in his tenure with the Twins, he's generally given the guy at the plate the advantage from the get go. From there, his breaking pitches need to return to what they once were. His curveball has looked sharp this spring, and his slider needs to again be an out pitch. If he can make those tweaks happen, Minnesota may get some use out of their big 2014 expense after all.

The dominoes behind Nolasco are the ones that seem almost more intriguing however. It has often been an uttered sentiment that the Twins best case scenario would be for a brief period of positivity causing teams around the big leagues to check in on Nolasco. In reality, he still has a significant chunk of change tied to his name, and Minnesota would have a tough time swallowing the majority of it. Nolasco going well wouldn't be all bad however.

Considering the shape of the AL Central starting rotations, the Twins would have to figure in no worse than third among the grouping. With a solid front three, the inclusion of Tommy Milone and Nolasco as 4th and 5th options is far from a bad thing. As the season gets underway, the back end of the rotation could then serve as somewhat of a revolving door for Molitor.

Despite being sent down, Duffey is going to resurface with the Twins at some point in 2016. My opinion would be that it's after the debut of Jose Berrios, who I believe is the first man up sometime in early may. Berrios got his feet wet this spring, and while he wasn't lights out, he was always going to be held back for service time reasons regardless.

Considering that injuries and shuffles will take place, there's little reason to bank and the starting five staying in tact for the duration of the season. What Nolasco has done in securing a rotation spot however, should be beneficial down the road to the Twins. In terms of Berrios, he presents a realistic roadblock for the immediate future, and in turn allows Duffey to hone in on his newly developing changeup.

Whether Berrios and/or Duffey are called upon due to necessity, or by pushing for their inclusion at the highest level, the Twins will have an extended evaluation period first. Both Milone and Nolasco should be capable of giving the Twins quality starts to open the season, and in grabbing a rotation spot, Nolasco helps to let the chips fall where they may.

Past Never Dictated 2016 Twins Future

Coming into spring training, the Minnesota Twins had a couple of players to keep their eyes on. With the majority of the 25 man roster being fleshed out, it was going to be a battle for a few final inclusions. While the role of the 5th starter in the rotation may have been up in the air, it was no doubt largely decided, and so too was the man that would man the middle of the outfield.

Somewhat surprisingly this spring, there has been a decent amount of articles written regarding Byron Buxton and him closing in on the Twins centerfield role. After sifting through the level of backwards thinking that train of thought employs, it should be apparent that Buxton was never closing in on anything.

What Buxton did in his first big league season was struggle. He slashed a paltry .209/.250/.326, struck out over 30% of the time, and was used as a defensive replacement down the stretch. What's also worth noting is that being somewhat of a slow starter, Buxton has taken to adapting rather quickly. After all, you don't elevate yourself to baseball's top prospect without that ability.

Coming into the 2016 season, Buxton was the odds on favorite for the starting centerfield job, regardless of what some may have thought (example 1, example 2). It's a silly narrative to believe the Twins were ever closing in on giving Buxton the gig, when in reality it was his to lose.

Having put up four defensive runs saved in just 35 starts for the Twins, defensively Buxton has the makings of the best centerfielder in the game. On that alone, Paul Molitor would have been best served to go with his top prospect. Then considering that secondary options included a list of players such as Danny Santana, Ryan Sweeney, and Darin Mastroianni, it should have been all but a foregone conclusion.

With spring training numbers what they are (Buxton currently slashing .200/.261/.561), the month of March was always going to be more process than results. Barring a complete ineptitude at the plate, the only storyline worthy of contemplating would be one in which Buxton had actually lost his grip on the role. Having shown a solid approach at the plate, and being able to square pitchers up, Buxton has done nothing to put that storyline into play.

At the end of the spring, Buxton is the Twins centerfielder to open the season, and that ever being in doubt seems more fodder than fact.

That leads us to another situation that previous Twins teams may have handled differently. Despite the idea that Ricky Nolasco (and even Trevor May) was competing for a rotation spot, the reality has always been that he's working to pitch for this club at all.

Gone are the Twins rotations including Cole DeVries, Jason Marquis, and Kevin Correia. No longer is a contingent of five hurlers thrown out there and asked to duck their way back into the dugout. In fact, Minnesota's group is arguably going to be one of the better bunches in the entirety of the AL Central.

A season ago, Nolasco pitched hurt, and the year before that, he was simply ineffective. Through three spring outings, he's been a detriment as well. Aside from the numbers, and they aren't good (7.36 ERA 11 H 6 ER 7 K 3 BB in 7.1 IP), his process has been equally poor. Failing to get ahead of hitters, not finding the zone, and putting himself in less than advantageous situations, Nolasco has done nothing to warrant any consideration for the roster, let alone a starting spot.

Unfortunately, that leads us to the ugly reality that Minnesota will owe Nolasco over $24 million through the next two seasons. It is this number that has some believing Ricky had an insider track to a rotation spot. Again, the narrative should be that number giving him a leg up on a roster spot ahead of the more deserving competition.

There was little reason to believe an ineffective veteran was ever serious consideration for a starting role on a team with significantly better options. While a former Twins way of thinking may have seen that play out, it more reasonably would have been the by-product of circumstance (less than advantageous pitching), than desired practice.

It's completely understandable to view the current Twins team in the context of what has previously taken place. The context provided by the situation however is that the 2016 squad is coming off a near playoff year, as opposed to spending the season in the doldrums of the Central losing 90 games. For a team looking to take a step forward, even Terry Ryan isn't silly enough to turn away his best centerfielder or hand over the keys to his car loving, but unworthy starter.

Buxton's story was written long before the seemingly backwards notions were unveiled, while Nolasco will continue to hold onto his thread a little while longer. When this club goes north however, expect for the most sensible outcomes to play out, as they have been brewing all along.

Cuts And Compounded Problems

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins made their first rounds of cuts this spring. While nearly all of them were expected, the timing of at least one seems a bit premature. On top of the roster thinking out, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor seem to be dealt a tough hand when it comes to one near guaranteed big leaguer.

Minnesota sent Reynaldo Rodriguez, Engelb Vielma, Alex Swim, Heiker Meneses, and Jake Reed over to the minor league side of the Lee County Sports Complex on Sunday. Despite Vielma being a defensive wizard, and Rodriguez getting some decent run this spring, the group was far from unexpected. It is however interesting to see Reed let go this early. The 2014 5th round draft pick from Oregon has been touted as a potential bullpen piece as soon as the 2016 season. Despite knowing he'll need some more time on the farm, the argument could have been made to keep him around a bit longer.

Reed struggled through a 6.32 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga last season, but proved well above the Florida State League upon a demotion. Once again he dominated the Arizona Fall League, and he positioned himself well going into the year. With a 3.00 ERA and a 1/2 K/BB ratio through 3.0 IP, he didn't do anything to set himself back.

For the Twins pen options, Reed settles in among the glut of options along with Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois, Mason Melotakis and others. He's probably going to debut sometime this summer, and it'll likely be after the first two options, but there's no doubt that the California native is capable of getting hitters out at the highest level. Regardless of his reassignment date, Reed controls his own destiny at this point, and betting against him doesn't appear a worthy cause.

When it comes to the bullpen, there's few areas the Twins will put a larger focus on in the year ahead. That said, they've got the unfortunate reality of a pitcher being forced into a situation. In trying to rework what was a pen that struck no one out, and was largely ineffective a year ago, Ricky Nolasco is giving Minnesota fits. At this point, the question becomes just what too large of a negative actually looks like.

Nolasco who was fighting for a starting role in theory much more than reality, appeared destined for the pen. The unfortunate development is that he's actually pitched this spring, and it's been about as bad as imagined. In three outings, he's given up three earned runs twice (once in just 1.1 IP) and compiled a hideous 7.36 ERA in just 7.1 IP. He owns a mediocre 7/3 K/BB ratio, and has surrendered 11 hits thus far. By all measures, he's been ineffective at best, and borderline awful at worst.

What compounds the problem for the Twins is the dollar amount hanging over Nolasco's head. Owed over $24 million through the next two seasons, Terry Ryan is going to be faced with a decision. Given their body of work, the argument for Burdi, Ryan Pressly, and maybe even J.R. Graham over Nolasco in the pen could be made. It comes down to whether or not the Twins are willing to continue to be hurt by a poor decision.

In paying a mediocre NL starter over someone with more upside (a la Phil Hughes) what they did, the Twins were always looking at an uphill battle with the former Marlins starter. Now the contract being a sunk cost, does Paul Molitor want to continue to be plagued by an ineffective arm simply because of the contract? Minnesota doesn't have a ton of options with Ricky, he's not going to accept an assignment to Triple-A. Should the club choose to DFA him and wash their hands however, they may stop the bleeding well before the financial implications cease to exist.

As more cuts are made this spring, it will continue to be worth monitoring what relief arms remain. Fernando Abad looks to continue to be the left-handed front runner, having surrenders a lone run on a solo homer. Burdi doesn't seem to be a 25 man option, but only pushes his MLB debut closer the longer he remains in big league camp. With a handful of young options sprinkled in with vets on minor league deals, it'll be interesting to see if any of them defy the odds and unseat the likes of Michael Tonkin or some other yet predetermined arm.

For now, Jake Reed has begun his turnaround season, and Ricky Nolasco has done anything but warrant a spot on the big league club. The story is just being written, but the 2016 Twins are well underway.

Nolasco Waiting To Blow Up?

Prior to the 2014 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan realized they had a deficiency. Coming off of yet another 90 loss season, the team's starting pitching was nowhere close to what it needed to be to compete. The answer was to scour the free agent market, and bring in outside help. Ryan landed to fresh arms that offseason, one has worked, and the other one hasn't.

The issue with the one that hasn't; we may not have seen the worst of Ricky Nolasco yet.

In terms of performance, the Twins put themselves in a less than advantageous situation from the get go. Nolasco was largely a middle-of-the-road pitcher in the National League. Despite being considered an ace at times for some relatively poor Marlins teams, he'd pitched to the tune of a sub 4.00 ERA just twice in his first eight seasons (2008, 2013). Nolasco's FIP generally hovered somewhere in the mid three's, and arguably his greatest asset was in being known as an innings eater.

Not a big strikeout guy, owning just a 7.4 K/9 mark, Nolasco was not likely to overpower hitters in the tougher American League. Surrendering just south of 10 hits (9.5/H9) per game, his pitch to contact style was one that Twins fans have come to grow tired of. Despite the many warning signs, it was Nolasco (and not the more realistic Phil Hughes) that commanded a $12.25m average annual value from the Twins over the next four years.

Entering their first season with the Twins, Hughes and Nolasco were the two pitchers brought in to change the rotation. While Hughes had been burned by homers, he was two years Nolasco's junior, and had a projectably higher ceiling. As expected, Hughes succeed (arguably much better than assumed) and Nolasco struggled.

Now with one ugly (5.38 ERA in 27 starts during 2014) season under his belt, and one injury riddled one (just 37.1 IP in 2015), Nolasco finds himself at a crossroads. In his Twins career, he's compiled a 5.64 ERA, 4.15 FIP, while striking out just 6.9 per nine, and offering little to no reliability. Considering the output, the California should be owed nothing, except he is...another $24m over the next two years.

That brings us to where we are now. Without a guaranteed rotation spot, Nolasco enters 2016 on the outside looking in. A less than ideal situation for a starter, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN asked Nolasco's agent (Matt Sosnick) about the situation, and potentially working out of relief. Here's that response:

Ricky has been an effective starter in the big leagues for ten seasons. Last year was an injury filled season, and he certainly deserves to show the Twins what he looks like without trying to pitch through the pain. The Twins evaluate talent very well, and their minor league system is a testament to the time and effort they put into that part of the game. They paid Ricky almost 50M dollars two years ago based on the totality of his work. I won't believe he is not in the rotation until I see it.

If the club believers he is better suited for a relief role, Ricky has made it clear to me that he would directly address his feeling of disappointment to his manager and the GM, and that he would ask the team about his other options.

There's little room to mince words in the statements above. Nolasco is clearly under the impression he's one of the Twins best five starting pitchers, and opposition to that is going to be an issue. This leads us to the reality, things could likely get worse.

With Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, and Kyle Gibson already rotation locks, there's just two spots left in the starting five. Paul Molitor has all but said Tyler Duffey will get one of them, and Tommy Milone has done nothing to lose his role. Nolasco in relief seems like the most plausible option, but then again, it really doesn't.

A handful of different scenarios have been thrown around as to how to handle Nolasco. In seeing the way in which Mike Pelfrey took a bullpen demotion a season ago, expecting it to go better with Nolasco is probably foolish. The reality though, is that putting Nolasco into the pen, is a square peg going into a round hole; it's a way for the Twins to utilize some of their already sunk cost in his contract. Trading Nolasco also would seem an uphill battle. The return would no doubt be pennies on the dollar, and a guy who's shown very little ability over the past two seasons doesn't have much value.

This leads us to my preferred solution. Nolasco wants to start, and there's little reason to believe he walks away from his hefty paycheck. Minnesota can DFA Ricky, removing him from the 40 man roster as he passes through waivers unclaimed, and allow him to start at Triple-A Rochester. In this scenario, he continues to start, staying stretched out, and can be a fallback option if and when injuries occur at the big league level. No doubt the move would be met with some angst from the Nolasco camp, and he could definitely refuse the assignment (due to having five years of service time). If he's dead set on starting though, and wants to play hardball with Minnesota, Ryan has some options at his disposal.

At the end of the day, Minnesota has a glut of high-ceiling reliever nearly ready for the big league level. Forcing Nolasco to the pen simply to get use out of him, over the roster inclusion of a player such as Alex Meyer, Nick Burdi, J.R. Graham, or some other MLB ready pen commodity would be less than ideal. The hope would be that Ricky Nolasco can turn his performance around, but this situation at least from a personnel standpoint, is likely going to get worse before it gets better.

On The Twins Creativity, Or Lack Thereof

Taking cues from another Twitter conversation, seriously you're missing out if you aren't following along (find me at @tlschwerz), the creativity surrounding baseball moves has been a hot topic of late. When looking at how the Twins have handled player acquisition in recent years, there's something to be said about what has been done well, and well, what hasn't.

I first got to thinking about this after reading a very well thought out piece over on Twins Daily. In it, Bill Parker sparks the conversation in regards to what the Twins could have done differently during their years of losing. Payroll and debates about contracts have generally surrounded the mid-market Twins. It's been a point of contention for the fan base, and likely will continue to be. The biggest takeaway from the piece comes down to smart spending, and the lack thereof.

Parker discusses past free agent contracts, and what the Twins might have passed on during their seasons of 90 loss seasons. While Terry Ryan and the Twins took dart throws to the effect of a marginal amount of added victories, a big splash likely would not have saved those teams from themselves either. Unfortunately, it's that strategy that continues to be employed when it shouldn't be.

That brings us to Mike Bates' piece on Twins Daily. Bates discusses the Twins continuing to operate in a similar manner, despite the situation. While I can nitpick at pieces that I may or may not agree with throughout the article (we all know I think Sano can work in right field), there's a much larger point being hit on. Bates makes two points that should become a virtual backbone when discussing any roster configuration Minnesota employs.

He says, "The Twins have a profound lack of ambition in virtually everything they do." Furthering the point, he contends, "Instead of attempting to sign a single free agent starter with a higher upside at some point over the last three years (like a Jordan Zimmermann, a Jon Lester or a Johnny Cueto), and maybe a relative lottery ticket in Hughes, the Twins took small bites at the apple."

This leads us to the crux of this piece, and some examples of points in which the Twins seem to get it, and where they don't.

Over the past few years, the Twins have spent significant money on three starting pitchers.  Phil Hughes was given a three-year, $24 million deal in 2013 that was then extended another two seasons. Following that splash, Minnesota then inked Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million deal. Rounding out the group, the next offseason saw the Twins land Ervin Santana on a $55 million contract spanning four seasons.

Regardless of how the production has looked, only two of those moves ever made sense the day they were signed. With free agent contracts being earned off of past production, and some hope for an immediate return, pushing on upside is where a middle-of-the-road team like the Twins should be. Both Santana and Hughes had glints of upside.

Hughes owned an ERA in 2013 nearly three points lower on the road (3.88) than at Yankee Stadium (6.32). Getting out of the homer friendly park suggested he could be a significantly more effective pitcher in a different venue. That narrative immediately proved true in 2014, and despite 2015 regression, still had him post his third best ERA since 2011. For Santana, he was a guy that had a solid track record of an ERA somewhere in the middle-to-high three range. He was experienced in the AL, and posted one of his best seasons as a pro with the Royals just a year prior. Again, upside loomed large for the Twins.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, Nolasco checked himself in. A career National League pitcher (spending eight year with the Marlins and briefly the Dodgers), a mediocre at best 4.37 ERA suggested who he was. His 3.76 FIP mark and 7.4 K/9 were more than likely only going to decrease in the less favorable, American League. Despite plenty of detractors, the Twins made him a $12 million man.

Similar misses have been made on much smaller scale minor league deals as well. It's more than fair to argue nearly any minor league deal has no downside for a major league club, the Twins don't always leave themselves much upside when looking to bring those types of veterans into the fold.

While all minor league transactions may be low risk, they are not created equal. Recently, I had a commenter suggest that dart throws are nothing more than a blind toss. It's unfair to assume however that a guy like Blaine Boyer (coming off a 2.93 FIP) wouldn't be a better use of a spring invite, than the walking corpse of Jason Kubel (who had been demoted to the minors hitting .216).

Ideally, a 25 man roster isn't going to be reliant upon a player looking to make the club following a minor league deal. Picking statistical inefficiencies to exploit no doubt helps to push contributions upward if you're going to take a flier however. There's belief behind Fernando Abad working, and Carlos Quentin is a worthy flier. If you had to bet on another Jason Kubel type though, you'd no doubt hope Ryan would aim higher.

Creativity is a very broad term, and employing it while 29 other terms are working towards the same goal is a tough ask. That said, looking for the Twins to target a more serious ceiling in free agency, rather than just checking a box is a safe place to start. Hoping for the dart throws to be aimed more towards the bullseye rather than just hitting the board is something else fair to ask for. No one expects Terry Ryan to reinvent the wheel, but having a more direct focus is something the Twins could afford to embrace.

Who Is This James Shields?

For the better part of the last six months, the biggest pitching name the Minnesota Twins have been linked to is a starter from the San Diego Padres. After inking Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Ervin Santana to big contracts, it's James Shields that the club has been tied to recently. Looking to shed the contract of Nolasco in a swap for Shields, one has to question whether Shields is anything more than another bad contract and big name.

Looking at a potential trade during the 2015 deadline period, the Twins and Padres became linked to one another. San Diego is motivated to shed Shields' deal, as the Twins are with Nolasco. Ricky has thrived in the National League, and is a West Coast guy through and through. There seems to be definite reasons for Nolasco to be excited about the idea. What Shields would bring to the Twins should be cautioned however.

While he's known as Big Game James, it's worth noting Shields exorbitant payroll number first. He's owed $21 million in 2016 and can opt out of his deal the following season. If he does not, Shields would be paid $21 million in each 2017 and 2018, with a $16 million team option in 2019 (with a $2 million buyout). That equates to at least $65 million over the next four seasons (when Shields would be 37), with the potential to cost up to $79 million. By that representation, the $24 million Minnesota owes Nolasco over the next two season, seems like peanuts.

So why would the Twins and Terry Ryan believe this deal is of benefit to them?

As things stand currently, Ricky Nolasco has given the Twins just 35 starts over the past two seasons. He pitched in just nine games in 2015, and owns a 5.64 ERA in his time with the Twins. His 4.15 FIP suggests he's been better than that number suggests, but his 6.9 K/9 mark is below his career average, and pitching in the American League hasn't done him any favors. Though Nolasco did have a good stretch before getting injured yet again in 2015, he's been put on the backburner and doesn't appear to have a place in the 2016 rotation.

The interesting wrinkle to any potential trade is that James Shields doesn't seem to be a perfect fit for the Twins rotation either.

Last season in San Diego, Shields owned a 3.91 ERA that was hiding a career worst 4.45 FIP. His strikeout totals hit a career mark at 9.6 K/9, but so did his walks (3.6 BB/9). He led the big leagues in home runs surrendered, and while he did pitch 202.1 innings, it was his lowest total since his debut season in 2006.

That's the bad when it comes to Shields, but there's also some good to be had there. Just a season removed from pitching in the AL Central with the Royals, Shields owned a 3.18 ERA during his time in Kansas City. He struck out batters at a 7.4 K/9 clip and averaged 228 Ip per year. His 2.2 BB/9 mark was lower than his career average, and his 3.53 FIP was much better than what happened in San Diego.

In acquiring Shields, the Twins would need to make decisions on how they would like to attack the 2016 season. First of all, Shields is not exactly a ground ball pitcher. He gave up fly balls on 34% of the balls put in play against him a season ago. With Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler in the outfield that may not be a problem. Having Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia out there could make it catastrophic.

Then there's the issue of rotation construction. Right now, the Twins should go with a starting five of Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, and Tommy Milone. That leaves Trevor May to be an asset in the bullpen, and Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, and Logan Darnell all as depth options. Shields would likely bump Milone from the group, but he isn't a guy that fits in the pen, and he's wasted down on the farm. Ideally, you want quality arms over quantity in depth, but this configuration would put Berrios in an uphill battle to push anyone out barring injury.

As things stand, the Winter Meetings are going to bring more clarity to the situation. Much like the trade deadline rumblings between the Twins and Padres, everything could go up in smoke. If the two teams are willing to swap bad contracts, that's one thing. If San Diego is asking for prospects in return, taking on that salary risk may make it less than worthwhile.

Shields is an upgrade over even a healthy Nolasco, but there's plenty of scary outcomes that lie ahead. If Minnesota loses prospects and Shields walks, it hurts. Should Shields fall off and play out the remaining dollars, that stings as well. Regardless, it's a tread with caution scenario that may have no win in sight.

Misplaced Concern Doesn't Highlight True Issues

Minnesota Twins center fielder Jordan Schafer misplays the triple hit by Detroit Tigers' Yoenis Cespedes during the sixth inning of an opening day baseball game in Detroit, Monday, April 6, 2015. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Yesterday, the Minnesota Twins completed their second game of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. While they are now 0-2, after 1/81 of the season, it appears as if a large contingent of the fan base is already waving the white flag. Considering the stretch that is the Major League Baseball season, two games is representative of a very small sample size. In football, it may equate to one drive, or basketball, a possession. With that notion, joining the knuckle-dragging contingent suggesting doom seems premature. That being said, there are some definite concerns in the early going, it just appears they are misplaced.

Much has been made about the offensive drought the Twins are currently going through. In 18 innings this season, they have yet to score a run, and even worse, have not reached third base. Dating back to 2014, it's been 24 innings (all against these Detroit Tigers) in which the Twins have failed to cross the plate. Again, while problematic, offensive issues aren't where concern should lie for this club. After all, a season ago virtually the same lineup was 7th in the majors when it came to scoring runs. However, yesterday's game highlighted some significant problem areas for the Twins.

First and foremost, Ricky Nolasco. I still remain of the belief that Nolasco will make good on at least of portion of what was the largest Twins free agent contract handed out at the time. The unfortunate reality is that it should have been Phil Hughes, and not Nolasco, that was the priority in the first place last year. Nolasco was a relatively average pitcher for the Marlins and that was in the National League. Expecting him to be a top of the rotation guy in the American League also seemed to be a longshot, and it's biting the Twins hard now. Today, Nolasco was sent back to Minnesota for an MRI. After pitching through injury last season and doing more damage than good, it's no doubt a positive thing that he's getting it figured out early in the process. While even a healthy Nolasco is an unproven commodity, a hurt one is not a good thing at all. The Twins are in a position to handle a rotation in flux with names like Alex Meyer and Trevor May, but there's no doubt a sense of concern with an injury out of the gate.

Moving on from the starting pitching and to the bullpen, the Twins weakness was already exposed. As Brandon Warne noted on this week's episode of Twins Tuesday, the bullpen is neither good nor interesting. Boasting a handful of journeyman types with low velocities and even lower ceilings, bullpen pitching is going to be an issue for the Twins until they start to call up some of the kids. Through 18 innings of baseball, the Twins have gone to the bullpen for four different pitchers, and only one has yet to give up a run. That pitcher is J.R. Graham, who prior to this season, hadn't pitched above the Double-A level. Of the 16 innings the Twins have pitched (the Tigers haven't needed to bat in the 9th yet), seven of the innings have been worked by bullpen pitchers. At nearly a 50% rate, an already overmatched bullpen is set to be overworked as well.

Rounding out the issues the Twins have faced in the early going is one that was highlighted coming into the season, outfield defense. Although during the first game, issues weren't as prevalent as game two, the uncertainty has reared it's head. Yesterday's game featured multiple misplayed balls by centerfielder Jordan Schafer (one of which he simply fell over trying to field), an error (though it wasn't recorded as such) by Torii Hunter, and a circus experiment on a catch made by Oswaldo Arcia. The corner outfielders are no doubt there because of their bats (and to be fair, Hunter did make a nice catch against the wall). In center however, Schafer was somehow viewed as a better option than Aaron Hicks of Eddie Rosario. What it all amounts to is that Paul Molitor will be faced with some early decisions.

Three games in, Eduardo Escobar is making his first start in left field. Arcia has struggled at the plate, looking overmatched in the early going. Schafer is being run out there again today and Hunter is no doubt here to stay. As Schafer and Shane Robinson continue to provide little value, the Twins will need to hope a quick start by Hicks or Rosario forces their hand. Getting less than ideal starting pitching is an issue, and compounding it by fielding a less than talented outfield only makes matters worse.

While Minnesota is only two games into the season, there are some concerning trends that need to reverse themselves. Reaching third base and scoring runs are not reasons to panic in the slightest, but the above may prove to be costly unless the new manager does something about the bandaid that is no doubt peeling off.

Ricky Nolasco Begins His Redemption

Today the Minnesota Twins take the field at Comerica Park for their second game of the 2015 Major League Baseball season. After dropping the first contest at the hands of David Price, the Twins will go up against Anibal Sanchez in game two. On the mound for the good guys in Ricky Nolasco, who will set out to start his 2015 of redemption.

After signing the richest free agent contract (at the time) in Minnesota Twins history, 2014 became a disaster for the former Marlins pitcher. Pitching through injury much of the season, he compiled a 5.38 ERA across 27 starts while striking out a career low 6.5 K/9. A dependable 200 inning pitcher, Nolasco threw just 159 innings for the Twins a year ago, and very few of them were quality.

Today, as he takes the mound in Detroit, Nolasco will be looking to begin what he hopes to be a turnaround year. At 32 years old and with nine big league seasons under his belt, the understanding of what Nolasco is as a pitcher should be pretty well documented. Not a high volume strikeout guy, Nolasco is capable of missing a few bats, and he can keep you competitive. An ERA somewhere in the high three to low four range should also be expected. While none of that rings spectacular, it is all a massive step forward from where he was at a season ago.

In 2014, Nolasco posted his highest FIP (fielding independent pitching) since his debut in the major leagues at 4.30. Considering a lackluster Twins defense behind him, that only aided to balloon his ERA over 5.00. The long ball was also an issue for Nolasco in 2014. Having not given up 20 or more home runs since 2011, Nolasco allowed 22 home runs to opposing batters a season ago. While struggling to strike batters out, allowing runs in bunches was only going to spell disaster for the California native.

This season, Nolasco should be expected to turn the page, if for no other reason than his health. After being brought in by the Twins, much was made of the signing. The club made Nolasco out to be a staff ace and an incredible innings eater. With the number attached to his contract, there was no doubt a considerable amount of pressure to fulfill those definitions. Never capable of being a true ace, Nolasco was in an uphill battle before he even got started. Combining that notion with trying to eat innings while at less than 100%, disaster quickly became the reality.

With an offseason to heal under his belt, and the certainty of where he will play this year, Nolasco enters the 2015 season in a different frame of mind. In 22.2 innings pitched this spring, Nolasco owned a 3.97 ERA. His five home runs surrendered down in Florida led the team, and again could be a cause for concern this season. He did however strike out batters at a higher clip than a season ago, and will need to miss more bats if he is going to be successful this year.

At the end of the day, today sets in motion Nolasco's 2015 season, but hardly defines it. Regardless of the outcome of this one start, Nolasco will need to build early confidence and push forward throughout the year. A ten hit, five run outing against the White Sox was how 2014 began, and is not what Nolasco wants today. No matter what happens however, Nolasco will need to focus on keeping a short memory, and pushing himself back to the pitcher he built himself off of being.